Big favourites: Round 13 AFL Preview
- Updated: June 26, 2009
Most of the favourites should win and win well this week judging from betting lines, writes Nick Tedeschi of Betfair.
The two long-time rivals look evenly matched on paper yet Carlton look set to start around the 1.50 mark. This should push punters towards Essendon.
Essendon have won their last four against Carlton and have been impressive in recent weeks. The Bombers have only won three of their last six but those losses were against the two undefeated teams and the in-form Adelaide.
Carlton have had an up and down year. They have not been able to string more than two wins together despite their all-star midfield and in the last two months they have lost to both Hawthorn and Fremantle.
Traders should take the points and try Essendon in the handicap market. The Bombers are also a bet at better than 2.20 in the Match Odds market.
In the first of the remaining matches, Fremantle are 0-3 in Melbourne this season and have not won in five rounds. Collingwood are riding a four match winning streak where they have not allowed an opponent to kick more than eleven goals. The Pies win and can be trusted to cover the big minus.
Adelaide have won four in a row and take on a Sydney team who have lost all six matches outside of the Harbour City. Adelaide have also won five on the trot against Sydney and should have few problems making it six. The best way to bet this match is to try Adelaide in the half-time/full-time double market.
Melbourne have been disappointing over the last two rounds but prior to that they covered seven big starts. Brisbane have not made a habit of thumping teams this season so the best wager seems to be Melbourne at any plus greater than 40 Â½.
Hawthorn have won four straight against West Coast and though they are struggling this season, they can beat the hapless Eagles. Anything above 1.40 is a bet.
Port Adelaide are a gutless team who have lost their last four road matches by an average of 47.75 points. Against competition front runners Geelong, who have an average winning margin of 58.5 points at Skilled Stadium this year, Port are no hope. The huge minus is the best trade.
North have been beaten by an average of 45 points over their last two matches and against a Dogs team who has broken 100 for six straight weeks and has an average margin of victory of 67 points over the last three weeks, they look little hope. The best play is the Bulldogs spotting up to 39 Â½ points.
Richmond have managed to keep it close against St. Kilda in their last three contests (average margin of 10 points) and with a young team out to impress caretaker coach Jade Rawlings, the Tigers can avoid a humiliating loss. St. Kilda will make it thirteen on the trot but the bet is Richmond with any start in excess of 40 Â½.
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