Team projections for R1 2009 AFL season, version 3.0

I’ll be revisiting this list every Thursday from now until the start of the season.

Richmond
FB: Kelvin Moore, Will Thursfield, Jay Schulz
HB: Chris Newman, Luke McGuane, Jordan McMahon
C: Matthew Richardson, Shane Tuck, Trent Cotchin
HF: Mitch Morton, Cleve Hughes, Brett Deledio
FF: Joel Bowden, Jack Riewoldt, Nathan G. Brown
Fol: Troy Simmonds, Kane Johnson, Nathan Foley
Int: Adam Pattison, Daniel Jackson, Matt White, Shane Edwards

In: Edwards
Out: Mark Coughlan
Iffy: McMahon, Schulz, Cotchin, Edwards
Waiting: Adam Thomson, Jake King, Richard Tambling, Ben Cousins

I’m now projecting Cogs to miss round 1. One setback in his recovery is one too many for my liking. Bowden is shifted to the forward line, reflecting the way he has been used at training. Exactly what this means for the halfback rebounding duties is not clear, with Newman and McMahon the most likely to pick up the slack but a host of other candidates putting their hand up at Punt Road. Given how slutty Richmond players were in DT in the second half of 2008, that is a situation that must be closely monitored in the NAB by fantasy coaches.

Carlton
FB: Chris A. Johnson, Michael Jamison, Bret Thornton
HB: Paul Bower, Jarrad Waite, Heath Scotland
C: Adam Bentick, Chris Judd, Kade Simpson
HF: Ryan Houlihan, Matthew Kreuzer, Andrew Walker
FF: Eddie Betts, Brendan Fevola, Chris Yarran
Fol: Cameron Cloke, Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy
Int: Shaun Hampson, Richard Hadley, Shaun Grigg, Mitch Robinson

In: Robinson
Out: Andrew Carrazzo
Iffy: Scotland, Bentick, Grigg, Johnson
Waiting: Jordan Russell, Jordan Bannister, Jake Edwards, Joe Anderson

The Blues are already starting to be tested for depth, with Carrots added to a large injury list and Setanta O’hAilpin seemingly beyond redemption. The fact that Russell is back in contention – the sort of ordinary player who they really need to consign to the Bullants – is some indication.

Hawthorn
FB: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Thomas Murphy
HB: Luke Hodge, Campbell Brown, Grant Birchall
C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Clinton Young
HF: Cyril Rioli, Lance Franklin, Stuart Dew
FF: Mark Williams, Jarryd Roughead, Michael Osborne
Fol: Robert Campbell, Brad Sewell, Chance Bateman
Int: Simon Taylor, Mitch Thorp, Travis Tuck, Ben McGlynn

In: nil
Out: nil
Iffy: Campbell, Hodge, Lewis, McGlynn
Waiting: Brent Renouf, Jarryd Morton, Josh P. Kennedy, Cameron Stokes

Nothing has changed here, which is a little disappointing as Hawks fans would have hoped to hear better news about their injured stars to take the likes of Campbell, Hodge and Lewis off the iffy list. The loss of Harley may mean that Alistair Clarkson may go a little taller on his bench, which gives Morton a leg up as a pinch-hitting tall flanker. Brown and Thorp may rotate through half back and half forward to further complicate matters.

Geelong
FB: Josh Hunt, Matthew Scarlett, Harry Taylor
HB: Darren Milburn, Andrew Mackie, Corey Enright
C: Cameron Ling, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman
FF: Ryan Gamble, Tom Lonergan, Mathew Stokes
Fol: Brad Ottens, Gary Ablett jnr, Joel Corey
Int: Mark Blake, Simon Hogan, David Wojcinski, Max Rooke

In: Hunt
Out: Tom Harley
Iffy: Hogan, Gamble, Wojcinski, Milburn
Waiting: James Kelly, Shannon Byrnes, Tom Hawkins, Dan McKenna

This is the biggest shift. The problem for the Cats is their third tall, and I’m projecting conservatively that they will opt for a tag team of Hunt and Rooke to handle the Hawks’ dangerous forwards. Milburn can’t go with Rioli or Stokes, as evidenced by his poor job on Higgins in the preliminary final last year, so with Scarlett taking Franklin and Taylor likely matched up on Roughead, Milburn looms as the weak link. Quite what this means for the defensive responsibilities of Mackie and Enright is yet to be seen.

Collingwood
FB: Heath Shaw, Nathan J. Brown, Tyson Goldsack
HB: Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid, Harry O’Brien
C: Alan Didak, Scott Pendlebury, Tarkyn Lockyer
HF: Leon Davis, Travis Cloke, Dale Thomas
FF: Sean Rusling, John Anthony, Anthony Corrie
Fol: Josh Fraser, Shane O’Bree, Dane Swan
Int: Cameron Wood, Sharrod Wellingham, Marty Clarke, Ben Johnson

In: Anthony, Johnson
Out: Anthony Rocca, Paul Medhurst
Iffy: Anthony, Wellingham, Johnson, Corrie
Waiting: Rocca, Medhurst, Shannon Cox, Dayne Beams

I am concerned about the restricted preseasons of Rocca and Medhurst, so I’ll leave them out of the projected side until they show signs of match fitness. Anthony is a straight swap for Rocca where, to be honest, the Pies don’t lose all that much. Medhurst replaced by Corrie in a forward pocket is more of an issue, judging from his poor first-up run against the Eagles. Johnson is playng for his football career, something which coach Mick Malthouse will identify with this year.

Adelaide
FB: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Scott Stevens
HB: Andrew McLeod, Nathan Bock, Aaron Kite
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Chris Knights
HF: Simon Goodwin, Nick Gill, Richard Douglas
FF: Tyson Edwards, Kurt Tippett, Jason Porplyzia
Fol: Ivan Maric, Nathan Van Berlo, Brent Reilly
Int: Jonathon Griffin, Michael Doughty, Robert Shirley, Bernie Vince

In: Kite
Out: Greg Gallman
Iffy: Kite, Gill, Johncock, Doughty
Waiting: Trent Hentschel, Taylor Walker, Jared Petrenko, Patrick Dangerfield

Tough break for the kid Gallman, when he was looking so good as the groomed Bassett replacement. In his absence it’s Kite, Petrenko and Rory Sloane fighting for that last spot. I’m still leaving Dangerfield out, though coach Neil Craig has left him more than enough time to prove that the Geelong Falcons didn’t make him too fat.

Brisbane
FB: Tom Collier, Daniel Merrett, Joel Macdonald
HB: Josh Drummond, Joel Patfull, Jed Adcock
C: Tim Notting, Bradd Dalziell, Travis Johnstone
HF: Luke Power, Jonathan Brown, Jared Brennan
FF: Lachie Henderson, Daniel Bradshaw, Rhan Hooper
Fol: Matthew Leuenberger, Simon Black, Michael Rischitelli
Int: Jamie Charman, Ashley McGrath, Troy Selwood, Daniel Rich

In: nil
Out: nil
Iffy: Henderson, Collier, McGrath, Selwood
Waiting: Albert Proud, Jason Roe, Stiller, Scott Clouston

No change here, despite Proud’s shenanigans.

West Coast
FB: Brett Jones, Darren Glass, Mark Nicoski
HB: Shannon Hurn, Beau Wilkes, Adam Selwood
C: Andrew Embley, Daniel Kerr, Chris Masten
HF: David Wirrpanda, Mitchell Brown, Ashley Hansen
FF: Ben McKinley, Quinten Lynch, Mark LeCras
Fol: Dean Cox, Matt Priddis, Tyson Stenglein
Int: Mark Seaby, Brad Ebert, Chad Fletcher, Brent Staker

In: Fletcher
Out: Beau Waters
Iffy: Wilkes, Hansen, Stenglein, Staker
Waiting: Josh J. Kennedy, Jamie McNamara, Matt Rosa, Matthew Spangher

One match gone, two players down. Patrick McGinnity‘s jaw needed reattachment, as did those of fantasy coaches who had pegged him as a smokie this year. Beau Waters is out indefinitely, which does technically open up a more consistent spot for Hurn, but can any of you say to me with a straight face that you expect Hurn to play 22 consistent games? Hurn is a circus act, from what I can see: an overrated long kick is all that there is to his game, and he usually doesn’t manage to connect with those in senior games anyway. Unless he’s the Q-Stick loading up for bear from inside the square, the 65-yard kick just doesn’t have much of a place in the modern game. Anyway, the last bloke not named Quinten to try that on Subiaco was called Dew, and you could hear his hammy twang that night in Launceston.

St Kilda
FB: Matt Maguire, Max Hudghton, Farren Ray
HB: Raphael Clarke, Sam Fisher, Brendon Goddard
C: Jason Gram, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna
HF: Jason Blake, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Gilbert
FF: Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, Adam Schneider
Fol: Steven King, Nick Dal Santo, Luke Ball
Int: Michael Gardiner, Robert Eddy, Clinton Jones, Steven Baker

In: nil
Out: nil
Iffy: Ray, Eddy, Jones, Baker
Waiting: David Armitage, Sean Dempster, Jarryn Geary, Tom Lynch

The only difference here is in positioning, with St Kilda not afraid to blare in the media about them trying Gilbert as their third tall forward. One issue to keep watching with these Saints is soft tissue issues with their key on-ballers, with too many of them sitting in the stands for their intra-club for my liking.

Sydney
FB: Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Craig Bolton, Paul Bevan
HB: Nick Malceski, Ted Richards, Martin Mattner
C: Amon Buchanan, Brett Kirk, Rhyce Shaw
HF: Michael O’Loughlin, Ryan O’Keefe, Patrick Veszpremi
FF: Adam Goodes, Barry Hall, Heath Grundy
Fol: Darren Jolly, Jude Bolton, Jarrad McVeigh
Int: Jesse White, Jarred Moore, Jared Crouch, Kieren Jack

In: nil
Out: nil
Iffy: O’Loughlin, Grundy, Shaw, Crouch
Waiting: Craig Bird, Ed Barlow, Luke Ablett, Daniel O’Keefe

Very little news out of Sydney at this stage of the season. I think they’re keeping their head down, waiting for the inevitable stories of rugby league players glassing women at pubs to emerge.

Melbourne
FB: Paul Wheatley, Stefan Martin, Colin Garland
HB: Matthew Whelan, Jared Rivers, Simon Buckley
C: Brad Green, Brock McLean, Matthew Bate
HF: Cameron Bruce, Brad Miller, Aaron Davey
FF: Colin Sylvia, Michael Newton, Austin Wonaeamirri
Fol: Paul Johnson, Cale Morton, Nathan Jones
Int: Mark Jamar, James McDonald, Lynden Dunn, Brent Moloney

In: nil
Out: nil
Iffy: Martin, Moloney, Dunn, Wonaeamirri
Waiting: Addam Maric, Ricky Petterd, Jack Grimes, Clint Bartram

Not many fans making the trek out to Casey to watch these boys train…

North Melbourne
FB: Daniel Pratt, Michael Firrito, Josh Gibson
HB: Jesse W. Smith, Drew Petrie, Gavin Urquhart
C: Adam Simpson, Daniel Harris, Daniel Wells
HF: Matt Campbell, Corey Jones, Lindsay Thomas
FF: Lachie Hansen, David Hale, Ben Ross
Fol: Hamish McIntosh, Brady Rawlings, Brent Harvey
Int: Andrew Swallow, Sam Power, Scott McMahon, Leigh Harding

In: Hansen
Out: Josh Smith
Iffy: Ross, Hansen, McMahon, Swallow
Waiting: Josh Smith, Matt Riggio, Ed Lower, Scott D. Thompson

I’m only putting Hansen in due to him being used at CHF in the intra-club. This battle for the vacant Edwards spot has a long way to go yet. Lower also raised his stocks in the scratch match.

Port Adelaide
FB: Michael Pettigrew, Alipate Carlile, Mitch Farmer
HB: Peter Burgoyne, Troy Chaplin, Domenic Cassisi
C: Travis Boak, Chad Cornes, Kane Cornes
HF: David Rodan, Justin Westhoff, Danyle Pearce
FF: Daniel Motlop, Warren Tredrea, Brett Ebert
Fol: Dean Brogan, Steven Salopek, Shaun Burgoyne
Int: Brendon Lade, Josh Carr, Paul Stewart, Robbie Gray

In: nil
Out: nil
Iffy: Farmer, Stewart, Gray, Salopek
Waiting: Jacob Surjan, Nick Salter, Marlon Motlop, Jason Davenport

A little quote from Nathan Krakouer tucked away at the bottom of this story on portadelaidefc.com.au was instructive: “There are a few of us playing for the one spot, like Marlon [Motlop], Nick Lower, Paul Stewart, Jacob Surjan and myself, which is good for the club.” I’ve got Stewart winning out at the moment based on not much information, so any of those could jump up, with the younger Motlop probably the one that coach Choco Williams will favour eventually.

Essendon
FB: Sam Lonergan, Dustin Fletcher, Michael Hurley
HB: Adam McPhee, Patrick Ryder, Jay Nash
C: Kyle Reimers, Jobe Watson, Bachar Houli
HF: Jay Neagle, Scott Lucas, Scott Gumbleton
FF: Alwyn Davey, Matthew Lloyd, Leroy Jetta
Fol: David Hille, Brent Stanton, Mark McVeigh
Int: Tom Bellchambers, David Myers, Andrew Lovett, Angus Monfries

In: Myers, Bellchambers
Out: Andrew Welsh, Jason Laycock
Iffy: Hurley, Nash, Lonergan, Neagle
Waiting: Tayte Pears, Ricky Dyson, Courtenay Dempsey, Hayden Skipworth

We all know about Welsh’s fracture dislocation of the ankle that has him out for four months, but had you heard about Laycock’s foot stress fracture flaring up? So says injuryupdate.com.au. Hopefully this isn’t a sign of the Bombers’ horrific injury run of 2008 continuing deep into 2009.

Fremantle
FB: Michael Johnson, Antoni Grover, Marcus Drum
HB: David Mundy, Luke McPharlin, Roger Hayden
C: Garrick Ibbotson, Paul Hasleby, Brett Peake
HF: Kepler Bradley, Matthew Pavlich, Daniel Gilmore
FF: Chris Mayne, Chris Tarrant, Des Headland
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Rhys Palmer, Ryan Crowley
Int: Byron Schammer, Andrew Foster, Steven Dodd, Clayton Hinkley

In: nil
Out: nil
Iffy: Hinkley, Foster, Peake, Drum
Waiting: Scott Thornton, Josh Head, Nick Suban, Stephen Hill

The knee ligament injury to Adam Campbell shores up Gilmore and Bradley in the 22, for now at least, meaning that only Ryan Murphy stands in their way of rotating between the ruck and third tall. The injury niggle to Tarrant which has put him out of the NAB this week will swiftly kill any thought of him being a halfback rebounder, which means that genuine halfbacks Suban and Hill come into stronger consideration.

Western Bulldogs
FB: Lindsay Gilbee, Brian Lake, Dale Morris
HB: Ryan Hargrave, Tom Williams, Andrejs Everitt
C: Ryan Griffen, Daniel Cross, Nathan Eagleton
HF: Robert Murphy, Mitch Hahn, Daniel Giansiracusa
FF: Shaun Higgins, Brad Johnson, Jarrad Grant
Fol: Ben Hudson, Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd
Int: Will Minson, Callan Ward, Dylan Addison, Josh Hill

In: nil
Out: nil
Iffy: Eagleton, Everitt, Hill, Ward
Waiting: Tim Callan, Jarrod Harbrow, Sam Reid, Stephen Tiller

No news here either.

I know you lot love these posts judging from the number of comments, so have at it. Are there names that you’re not hearing in preseason reports that you’re worried about? Am I being too conservative in some of my projections? Have I publicised a smokie you wanted hidden? Oh wait, you wouldn’t answer that one if I did! 😉

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