Carlton’s Lachie Henderson is among the important names among possible round 1 selections.
I am breaking this first edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they’re taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.
Richmond
FB: Chris Newman, Kelvin Moore, Dean Polo
HB: Alex Rance, Luke McGuane, Jordan McMahon
C: Shane Edwards, Shane Tuck, Trent Cotchin
HF: Ben Cousins, Jack Riewoldt, Richard Tambling
FF: Robin Nahas, Mitch Morton, Tyrone Vickery
Fol: Troy Simmonds, Brett Deledio, Nathan Foley
Int: Angus Graham, Dustin Martin, Matt White, Daniel Jackson
Iffy: Edwards, Cotchin, Foley, Cousins
Waiting: Jayden Post, Tom Hislop, Jake King, Will Thursfield
What a train wreck Richmond is going to be this year. Retirements, delistings and deadwood-clearance have left the Tiger list looking like a clump of sodden moggies swimming for dear life in a flood. To make things worse, some of their pitifully small group of good players are suffering injuries: Cotchin and Foley with ongoing tendonitis, Cousins with a hand injury and Deledio with a severe case of should-harden-the-flower-up. Well, maybe that last one is a bit harsh, but this team could do with a bit of Morton’s self-confidence, if not swagger.
For fantasy purposes, this means Martin becomes very important. He’s going to have little or no resistance to entering the starting line up for round 1, even if the aforementioned stars pass fit, given the appalling quality of the mid-range part of the Richmond list. The question for me remains how new coach Damian Hardwick will coach the side. Signs are early that he is going to have to spend a lot of time “de-Wallacing” them out of bad habits. While this may prove to be a hindrance for fantasy scores of those in the side who excel at running and/or passing sideways (see Tambling, McMahon, Newman… need I go on?), other players who haven’t been inculcated into the Terry terrors like Martin may thrive.
A sideshow to this which may or may not prove lucrative for fantasy is who will be Hardwick’s favoured boys, if anyone. Wallace certainly had his favourites and not-so-favoured. There are a lot of journeymen at Richmond who have been “just going”, and it is currently unclear as to whom of these will eventually shake themselves out into first-22 locks. Now is the time for players like Edwards, Adam Thomson. Hislop, Daniel Connors, Post, King, Andrew Collins and Andrew L. Browne to raise themselves up from mediocrity. Let us hope on their behalf that they have it within them.
Carlton
FB: Paul Bower, Michael Jamison, Aaron Joseph
HB: Jordan Russell, Bret Thornton, Heath Scotland
C: Kade Simpson, Marc Murphy, Andrew Carrazzo
HF: Ryan Houlihan, Setanta O’hAilpin, Chris Yarran
FF: Andrew Walker, Lachie Henderson, Eddie Betts
Fol: Matthew Kreuzer, Bryce Gibbs, Brock McLean
Int: Richard Hadley, Shaun Hampson, Mitch Robinson, Shaun Grigg
Iffy: Russell, Hadley, Robinson, Henderson
Waiting: Robert Warnock, Dennis Armfield, Brad Fisher, Jefferey Garlett
Injured: Jarrad Waite
Suspended: Chris Judd
Waite is making noises about aiming for round 1 but I’m projecting at this stage that he wont get up, though he still may be salvageable for fantasy with a round 2 or 3 start. Jamison is also proppy but he’s got enough time to convalesce. Murphy with a hip problem is the only other major concern.
Hadley gets a gig for the first three rounds but it’s hard to see him surviving once Judd joins McLean and the others unless he can develop another side to his game, though the tagging role is covered by Grigg and Joseph. Robinson is still fringe, even more so after his off-season shenanigans.
Henderson is the big question mark. Does Ratten slot him straight in as a full forward to replace Fevola? Does he go with O’hAilpin or Fisher who have let him down so many times before? Does he sacrifice his ruck division with Kreuzer to fill the hole? Given that in the first round of the NAB the Blues are facing Sydney, who are claiming to be treating the pre-season seriously for the first time in many years, we may not get many easy answers to these questions.
Geelong
FB: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Andrew Mackie
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, James Kelly
C: Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey, Cameron Ling
HF: Shannon Byrnes, Cameron Mooney, Max Rooke
FF: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, Ryan Gamble
Fol: Brad Ottens, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett jnr
Int: Mark Blake, Mathew Stokes, Travis Varcoe, David Wojcinski
Iffy: Varcoe, Byrnes, Stokes, Wojcinski
Waiting: Marcus Drum, Josh Hunt, Tom Lonergan, Nathan Djerrkura
Injured: Steve Johnson
I have potted Kelly before and would normally put him in the iffy list, but all reports are that he’s gunning it in pre-season training. This is bad news for those wanting to see either Hunt or Drum, as he’s filling a defender spot they could conceivably take.
Johnson looks unlikely to recover by round 1 from chronic hip ailments – a common complaint from the extremely aged, let us not forget – while Ottens is nursing the hand he cut on a propeller blade on a boat he was skiing behind. Which is about as silly as the silly season gets. Bad Otto. Also, Simon Hogan ricked his back in preseason and as been in the rehab group.
Essendon
FB: Henry Slattery, Tayte Pears, Dustin Fletcher
HB: Andrew Welsh, Michael Hurley, Courtenay Dempsey
C: Ricky Dyson, Brent Stanton, Brent Prismall
HF: Alwyn Davey, Scott Gumbleton, Kyle Reimers
FF: Mark Williams, Jay Neagle, Angus Monfries
Fol: Patrick Ryder, Jobe Watson, Jason Winderlich
Int: Jason Laycock, Heath Hocking, Sam Lonergan, David Myers
Iffy: Laycock, Hocking, Lonergan, Myers
Waiting: Tom Bellchambers, Leroy Jetta, Cale Hooker, Jake Melksham
Injured: David Hille
Suspended: Nathan Lovett-Murray, Mark McVeigh
I do not like the news coming out of Windy Hill at all. Hille missing, Laycock setback, Neagle overweight, Gumby proppy, Hurley’s thumb weakened after wrist surgery, Myers twanging his hammy. It looks very much to me like the Dons are going to open the season with a shellacking by the Cats.
You may have thought that Essendon would have a dilemma with what to do with Ryder and Hille in the same side. That won’t be an issue for the first month or so, as Hille will miss round 1 at least and be eased into the side gently. Speculation among fans is that Hille and Laycock will both be asked to play up forward a lot, suggesting that Ryder will keep his #1 spot even when Hille is back to full fitness. One wonders, however, just how effective the ponderous Hille could be as a key forward in these days of high aerobic demands. He’s no Paul Salmon, let’s put it that way. Gumbleton is looking likely to blow over in a soft zephyr as usual at this time of year, while Neagle’s skinfolds have caused some angst on Bomber boards. Gumby in particular is going to be popular in fantasy circles if he manages to survive a NAB game or two, but there are never any fitness guarantees with Gumby.
No, I don’t like putting Dyson on the wing either. Yes, Jetta probably deserves the spot more. Dyson out for McVeigh in round 2, that would be my expectation. Melksham is an outside chance for that spot, which will be a focus for fantasy coaches.
Hooker probably merits a spot too but, like Richmond’s backline, there’s a lot of competition for not enough spots. It’s very much on the cards that Hurley could be switched forward in place of Gumby or Neagle if one of those gets injured, but if that doesn’t happen then Hooker may have to wait until Fletcher retires.
Next up: Melbourne, Hawthorn, Brisbane and West Coast.
chadwick
January 16, 2010 at 1:47 pm
Good read monty. I wonder where Mitch Farmer will fit into calculations at the tigers. Traded shultz to get him, wonder if he will be around the mark. Plays hard to the footy, i get the feeling that hardwick will like that.
GOGOS2GAJ!
January 16, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Great post m0nty keep up the good work m8! Interesting to see Myers in the side where do you think he’ll play. I expect him to be a mid and go back sometimes. Anyway great post again keep up the good work
longytap
January 16, 2010 at 2:01 pm
Mate, correct call on dyson. He is miles ahead of jetta at the minute. Where did u hear of Myers and his hammy?
m0nty
January 16, 2010 at 2:08 pm
It was in the papers and on the Web sites, longytap.
Rob K
January 16, 2010 at 2:27 pm
Great stuff Monty!
Richmond – Freakin hell, we are in trouble – McMahon in the backline repeatedly turning it over, Edwards in the middle (we must be REALLY desperate) and King and Hislop on the waiting list?! And that’s before we cop injuries during the year?! Oh my Lord. I love the Tiges so I haven’t mentioned a few under achievers or players that are just not up to it yet out of respect, but we are in serious trouble.
Carlton – is it just me or do the Blues look ordinary without Judd and Fev? They will still pump us round 1 though. No Fev = huge pressure on Henderson and that spastic Ohailpin.
Dream team:
Get on Lids even if he’s only a mid. Hardwick will turn that flower into a pitbull on crack, and with his skill, pace and strength will win his 3rd B & F in a row and average 100 .
Kruezer – regardless of whether he’s played fwd or ruck, he’s a young Dean Cox so will win tap outs, take marks, win the ball on the ground and kick goals. Will average 80 . Also, he should be classified as R/F, which is a bonus under the new DT rules.
Geelong – NTR – best team I’ve ever seen.
Essendon – I can’t comment because I hate them so much. How the fudge did they make the finals last year?
DT:
Blake – With Mumford gone, Ottens old and injury prone, Blake ordinary and Hawkins desperately needed in the fwd line, SURELY he will get a run. Will be rookie priced too.
No one I’m interested in because, as Monty said, there’s a lot of competition for a few spots at Essendon. BUT most players are hacks and/or injury prone or too expensive, so I reckon Melksham will get a gig early. Knights loves the kids and from what I’ve seen and read, Melksham is all class.
Rob K
January 16, 2010 at 2:33 pm
Sorry – I meant for DT, get on Trent West, not Blake. I really should proofread comments b4 posting them.
toby07
January 16, 2010 at 5:08 pm
love your work monty.
warnock and hunt will both play round 1 imo.
2 weeks till dt opens and im excited(-:
wceagles
January 16, 2010 at 5:30 pm
Great job, one of my fave features on here during the offseason!
migman19
January 17, 2010 at 12:23 am
Why is Stokes an ‘iffy’ m0nty?
m0nty
January 17, 2010 at 2:28 am
migman, because his spot is under threat from players like him. Byrnes has already gone past him and there will be more pressure from the bottom of the list.
David
January 17, 2010 at 12:35 pm
Why is Warnock waiting? From what I’ve read Kruezer will be playing forward which will mean that Hampson and Warnock will be doing the ruckwork. At his price he must be worth consideration for a bench position.
Fatbar5tad
January 17, 2010 at 3:41 pm
There’s nothing wrong with Dog Monty. According to training reports I have read from 14/1, he is moving freely.
wombats
January 18, 2010 at 12:34 am
hey monty, do you think hardingham has a good chance for early games?
m0nty
January 18, 2010 at 11:02 am
Hardingwho? No.
broady24
January 18, 2010 at 11:36 am
Good stuff Monty. I wouldnt have Russell as iffy for the Blues. Ratts loves him and he polled the second most votes in the B&F for the final 11 rounds of last season.
I’d be concerned over walker for rd 1 since he is banished to training with the Bullants for the next few months… and i can only hope Fisher doesnt get a game. ever.
asha1984
January 18, 2010 at 4:57 pm
Yeah i would be surprised in Hardringham gets a few games early, not round 1 though.
richo9309
January 18, 2010 at 7:47 pm
That Richmond side is way off, you won’t be seeing White, McMahon or Simmonds. Graham will take number 1 ruck duties, T.V. number 2. Post will take FF, Thursfield FB. Andrew Collins is a lock in the 22.
FLOPITOUT1
January 20, 2010 at 11:08 am
surely m.farmer will get a game in that crappy squad.no richo no richmond spooners 2010
Trav0
January 20, 2010 at 5:57 pm
i had to laugh at a richmond supporter calling essendon players hacks, a team that had to delist a heap of players at the end of last year and will probably have do the same at the end of this year.
anyway,
Monty totally agree with you, if the bombers cant get early games into gumbleton, laycock and neagle, they could still win 10games but that will be unlikely to get them into finals! a bloke over 110kgs wont be rushed back after an ACL i see hille back in round 4-6, Sooner dyson is out the better, although he improved a lot last year he isn’t the type of midfielder you need these days. will also be interesting to see who will make room for lovett-murray! Atkinson is another one who should be on your waiting list.
I also have to say i hope hocking has built up some speed,
slattery is another one who could be replaced early in the year if not before round 1
Do you also believe Melksham will play before Zaharakis?
SpottyDog
January 20, 2010 at 8:32 pm
mOnty do you think the suspended blues will be back in before the begining of the season, or will their punishment carry through into the season.
ronl
January 21, 2010 at 9:01 am
Re: Essendon
I get the feeling that the only rookie draftee likely to play in the first 10 games is Hardingham, mainly because his body is ready for it.
On one half-back flank you’ve got Dempsey, Lovett-Murray, Hooker, Houli and Atkinson with their hands up.
In a back pocket Hardingham could take over from a constantly flustered Slattery.
On one wing you’ve got Dyson, McVeigh, Zaharakis and possibly Myers fighting it out.
Reimers and Jetta would be equally effective
on a half-forward flank.
Michael Still and Tyson Slattery, both of whom have huge wraps, are still to debut.
That’s not to mention the rookie draftees of whom Melksham and Long could be amongst the early ones.
If Neagle doesn’t come up this year and really show something he should be jettisoned. Laycock can be surprisingly effective up forward during the rare times he believes in himself. Bellchambers may take a big step forward this year, and Christian Bock could be introduced late in the season.
I think the Bombers at this early stage rate a B minus and, with a very difficult draw, possibly sneak back into 8th spot.
rustyc
January 22, 2010 at 4:32 pm
re: Geelong
Josh Hunt will e in the 22 and resume his specialist kick-in role. Kelly is more likely to play on the wing than Ling.
Lingy tends to play a run-with/tagging role.
rustyc
January 22, 2010 at 4:35 pm
re: Geelong
What a fantastic lineup.
Let the dynasty continue.
forthwrite
January 29, 2010 at 7:22 pm
Geelong side is close but a bit off base.
Put Kelly on the bench, Mackie to half back and Hunt in the pocket. Wojack goes out.
Barring injury Hunt will play every game this year.
forthwrite
January 29, 2010 at 7:25 pm
Sorry, make that Stokes goes out.
jsmithxiv
February 1, 2010 at 12:49 pm
I tend to agree (and hoping for DT) that Hunt will be in Geelong’s 22 as a back-pocket barring re-injury.
I would have Gamble out, with Byrnes, Ling, Kelly and Mackie to move forward one line each. With Lingy to of course then play as a tagger.
burner09
February 1, 2010 at 1:22 pm
Geelong has the 28yo Podsiadly who’s a profound goalkicker in the VFL, Do you think he would fill Stevie Johnson’s spot until his hip is ready?, Could be a great cash cow if he gets games? What’s everyones thoughts
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