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Killer Carl for the chop: Rollercoaster R5, 2010

Rollercoaster R5

Hawthorn’s Carl Peterson is one of the rookies worth selling this week, with a few fantasy premiums at tasty prices to replace him.

AFL Rd 3 - Bulldogs v Hawks

As promised, I have turned the semi-regular Rollercoaster feature into a couple of dedicated stat pages, so you can see the lists for yourselves. The Dream Team Rollercoaster and Supercoach Rollercoaster links will be added to the front page and the menus.

A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in the AFL Dream Team and Supercoach salary cap competitions. Trying to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling are two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.

Big Dippers

Dean Cox is always a big fantasy story in the modern game, but even though his price has dived and his scores have levelled out, I am still a little reticent to suggest he should be a trade target this week. You could go straight from Nic Naitanui to his fellow Eagle ruck for little more than $100,000 in DT and $120,000 in SC. Many fantasy coaches will look at that and think it’s a no-brainer trade. I would still have concerns over inconsistency due to the ruck committee swinging one way and the other in terms of TOG share, as has been the case with Mark Seaby and Shane Mumford recently. There’s no question that the multiple All-Australian is about as cheap as you would ever have got him in the last five years though, so if you have faith in him then this is the week to grasp Big Cox with both hands.

Rollercoaster of love... down!Alan Didak stands out to me as the other big name of those whose price has plummeted in the first five weeks. Plenty of fantasy coaches are having big problems with their mid-priced forwards with the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Ben Warren and Sam Wright not being rotated through midfield as had been advertised in preseason. A double trade to upgrade one of these to Didak would seem like a solid option, especially in SC.

A number of coaches were waiting out the first month or so of the season on Marc Murphy while he recovered from his preseason injuries and the absence of Chris Judd, but it is Bryce Gibbs who has fallen further and seems to have benefited more from the return of the Juddster. Those who are looking to offload Luke Ball or David Armitage and can reach Gibbs would get him at the right time this week.

Rollercoaster of love... up!Loop De Loop

Josh Hunt is the biggest quandary in this week’s list of topped out prices. A terrible performance against Carlton may have stemmed the flow of cash into his price, and a lot of coaches (like me) are chafing a bit at seeing him rack up points as an eighth back, with the likes of Ashton Hams, Phil Davis and Matthew Dea on the bubble this week. Those of us who also have Matt Maguire as a ninth back can make a very strong case to elevate Maguire to #8 and sell off Hunt for a rookie at #9. On the other hand, Hunt has the Tigers this week, who are the league’s most generous in giving up points to medium-sized defenders, as one look at the DT Breakdown and SC Breakdown will show. Hunt may be allowed another week at least, if you can handle missing out on the half-dozen back rookies on offer.

Carl Peterson seems to have done his dash, and may well be dropped this week after two indifferent performances. Fantasy coaches would send him on his way with a round of applause though, for a job well done of six-figure profits in both comps. Anthony Morabito has put in consecutive sub-50s after his near-BOG performance against the Cats in round 3, so it’s probably time for him to be sold off. Ryan Bastinac‘s DT journey still has a way to go but a 30-point discrepancy in his SC output in the last two weeks means his turkey is just about cooked in Supercoach.

Finally, the aforementioned NicNat is rapidly approaching a stall in his moderate rise this season. If you can’t reach Cox this week, you may struggle to find cash to upgrade him to a gold premium. You never know with NicNat, but with a six-week stretch coming up of Sandilands, Jamar, Gardiner, Kreuzer and Ottens, the game in two weeks against the Hawks looks like the only one where he’ll dominate. His price actually dropped this week in DT already!

Time for some questions for you lot in the comments to ponder. Can you trust Hunt to beat his breakeven against the Tiger rabble? Is Maguire really all that dependable as a #8 back? Is Dids a forward premium worth having or are there better options? What are you NicNat owners going to do now? How about Dangerfield, Warren and Wright owners… will there be any after this week? Let me know below.



  1. burner09

    April 27, 2010 at 5:42 pm

    I traded Hunt (Geel) for Davis (Adel) and then upgraded Bastinac (NM) to Judd (Carl, Think my score will go up?

  2. kyle9600

    April 27, 2010 at 5:48 pm

    Hunt to Davis or Hams for me
    Then shit bastard ball to judd

    I dont think cox will make his BE this week against sandi but im probably wrong if he does he cant go up by that much, cant get him this week cos i need ball out anyway
    Still need syvlia in which i cant do because i dont have enough trades or enough money 🙁

    Nic Nats BE is only 42 so he will increase in price along with COX if he makes it (which he should) so trading this week i dont would achieve much
    Think about it if you have nic nat and need to make other trades its going to almost be the same to get him next week

  3. scottydude

    April 27, 2010 at 6:08 pm

    Dangerfield > either Hayes or Didak….Im not sure if i even want the DP Link!!!

  4. BigV

    April 27, 2010 at 6:32 pm

    Sold Peterson to Davis in DT and made 213K for a rookie upgrade late in the season.

  5. WestAussie

    April 27, 2010 at 6:39 pm

    I am thinking of going
    Hunt > Davis (Adel) then..

    Salopek > Ablett
    Ladson > Hodge
    Which one… please guys.

  6. WestAussie

    April 27, 2010 at 7:10 pm

    Let me re-phrase it.
    Option 1. Hunt -> Davis/White/Hams (most likely Davis)
    salopek -> Ablett

    Option 2. Hunt -> Hams/White
    Ladson -> Hodge

    Who has the most ‘job security’ out of them. White may be left out for Thornton/Waite although Walker going down can be good for his Job Security. Hams may or may not be in the side in the coming weeks. Q stick will probably come back. Davis looks the most secure in his side. ALthough Nathan Bock returning my hamper his chances. They way Adelaide are going they will want to keep Davis in their side.

  7. Dave085

    April 27, 2010 at 7:20 pm

    Im thinking ill trade out Hunt this week for Davis, then next week upgrade Martin to Didak.
    If that fails ill upgrade Trengove to Didak.
    I can get him this week if i trade Trengove but id rather keep him than Martin at this stage.

  8. Doive

    April 27, 2010 at 7:24 pm

    I sold dangerpants…had a bit of coin in the bank ….picked up Goodes who is playing 94% game time…he usually starts the season slow…couldnt handle the thought of having Dids in my side..

  9. doggiesftw

    April 27, 2010 at 7:30 pm

    Didnt realise petersons breakeven was 77 and didnt trade him do you think he will make that this week if he plays and I traded Dal santo for Sylvia and Ottens for Sandi do you think that was the right thing to do?

  10. Disco DB

    April 27, 2010 at 7:31 pm

    1 more week for Hunt.
    Maguire will get injured at some stage, I’d assess him from there, otherwise he’s a 22 gamer.
    Warren went last week for Pods.
    I’m holding Dangerfield ’til he comes good, I won’t be upgrading him for a while.

  11. Bassat

    April 27, 2010 at 7:35 pm

    had 80000
    out suckling,henderson
    in:simon white, COREY ENRIGHT

  12. kyle9600

    April 27, 2010 at 8:16 pm


    Why on earth would you trade dal santo for sylvia that is the worst trade i have heard of all year
    Quit supercoach now if your making those type of trades

  13. stevemac

    April 27, 2010 at 8:40 pm

    Willing to hang on to Dangerfield till Round 12ish. I feel he (and Tippett) are merely representative of the Crows performance, which I believe is sure to be on the rise.

  14. jrock

    April 27, 2010 at 10:17 pm

    Well,in DT, I have Sandilands and Hille as my rucks. Hille’s BE is 16 after two great games (finally) and Cox’s is 78. Bearing in mind that Cox is up against the man-mountain himself this week, he will most likely not score much more than his BE, so im pretty sure i’ll snap him up next week after Hille rises a bit more.

    Hunt, im looking to straight swap him for Hargrave once he comes back has a reasonable BE.

    Ive already outed Warren and Wright, and Dangerfield has ended up in my midfield through the MPP rule, so Im looking to trade him up to Joel Selwood (who is a steal) next week. Other midfield options are Gibbs and Hayes.

    Im not touching Didak or Steve Johnson.

    This week it looks like i’ll chop Shuey for JKT for some quick cash (70k).

  15. HintT

    April 28, 2010 at 2:25 am

    Great stuff monty. Along with the breakevens, boys on the bubble this will really help!

  16. gutrunner

    April 28, 2010 at 4:28 am

    I reacon Dangerfield’s neck injury is exactly the sort of soft tissue prob that leads to fantasy underperformance without missing games (like Brown??) maybe he’ll be in midfield later in season. keep him if you can.

  17. adamvk

    April 28, 2010 at 9:12 am

    Got Hille and Ottens in ruck in SC, who to keep if I trade one for Cox or Sandilands???

  18. Danoz

    April 28, 2010 at 9:43 am

    So i have peterson and hunt, i think peterson needs to go this week, but i want to upgrade a mid rookie too. This is what i’m thinking,

    Peterson > Davis or Matt Dea (will he keep playing?)

    Martin > Judd or Hayes

    But now i hear dangerpants is out for 4 weeks with a broken hand!!

    So prob will need to go

    Dangerpants > Goodes or Dids

    Or do we think danger can pine it up for a month?? I have relton roberts as the other pine warmer.

  19. RobotNinja

    April 28, 2010 at 10:11 am

    Wow. The DT Player type page is amazing Monty! I’m not sure I should play with it as whenever I try to get fancy with that type of thing, it always seems to backfire.

  20. korza

    April 28, 2010 at 10:27 am

    As a resident of Broadmeadows, the backyard of the Carl clan, i would like to apologise for Monty’s headline. The chopping block remark was distasteful, and was directed at a young footballer named Carl, and should not be referred to the deceased Mr.Carl Williams.RIP

  21. BigCoost

    April 28, 2010 at 10:42 am

    whats everyones thoughts on Sylvia for sc? i havent seen much of the games what positions is he playing? is he getting a run throught the guts?

  22. AF043

    April 28, 2010 at 12:42 pm

    Josh Hunt > Davis is good timing

    Like to bring in Judd (BE 70 SC) but Martin and Trengrove are due to make over $50k each over the next 3 rounds so maybe Duncan for me

    In SC even if Cox scored 3 x 100 points he would increase by less than $10k and Hille appears unlikely to increase or decrease much over the next 3 weeks so you can play wait and see.

    Dangerpants is out for 4 weeks btw

  23. Arky

    April 28, 2010 at 2:10 pm

    Morabito for JKT is almost a sure thing trade for me, assuming Clarkson is not an idiot at selection time. I’m willing to back the rest of my mid rookies to keep increasing faster than any trade targets, at least for one more week, although Gibbs and Swan are both tempting.

    Up forward, Didak hasn’t hit two 100s in a row yet. Yeah, he could pull in a 150 and kickstart both his price and his scoring, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take with Pods, Duncan and Gumby all set for good rises and with Stevie J and Jonno Brown going to the bargain basement over the next 2 weeks.

    The return of Rhys Palmer could throw a big curveball into everyone’s upgrade plans if he has big scores in his first two weeks.

    I reckon Davis’ spot is extremely insecure. Wouldn’t he go straight out when Bock comes back in?

  24. Vossy086

    April 28, 2010 at 2:19 pm

    I am trading dangerfield for sylvia and banner (who was a stinker of a purchase) for JKT. Going to have to keep peterson because i don’t think i have to many other options and hunt will come good against the tigers. Should of got waters instead of hunt at the start of the year though

  25. patonglion

    April 28, 2010 at 3:49 pm

    I am looking at removing Dangerfield and replacing him with Phil Davis. Either I get rid of S Mitchell or D Armitage for C Judd. Can anyone give me some advise.

  26. Bomber man

    April 28, 2010 at 4:21 pm

    hey everyone just wondering what you all think about kurt tippett…
    he is averaging 42 and hasn’t had more than 10 touches in a game so far and costs only 279 in sc
    with a b.e of 60 this week and port, richmond and the roos in the next few weeks surely now would be a good time to get him because he will only get better….


  27. DoorKnob

    April 28, 2010 at 4:34 pm

    Chaps with Danger now out with a broken bone in his hand its pretty obvious you should trade Danger to Davis, if you have Hunt (as i do) you’ll just have to leave him on the bench as cover for those inevitable donuts later in the season. While i’m at it i’ll offload Reimers for Didak this week as well.

    Oh and by the way for those of you who have already traded this week you should hand in your DT managerial licences what if one of your premo pick ups get injured at training/hit by a tram/struck by lightning before the weekend games never never ever trade until the teams are named and preferably do it on friday arvo after the full line ups for sunday have been named.

    There endeth the lesson.

  28. adamvk

    April 28, 2010 at 7:01 pm

    Totally agree DoorKnob, dont know why the hell people cant wait till friday to trade, you’ll probably change your mind a few times before then anyway!

  29. HomersHero

    April 28, 2010 at 7:32 pm

    Supercoach Hunt or Ladson for Davis or Does anyone know when Bower comes back? leaves Ball for Judd..

    What do people think of Brown’s 39? A once off or is this muscle thing on going?

  30. cmgb84

    April 28, 2010 at 7:39 pm

    i cant believe all these coaches that are trading before teams are out thurs night?!?!?!?

    eg basaat – are you sure white will get a game this week????

  31. AF043

    April 28, 2010 at 7:59 pm

    Quite right DoorKnob and adamk

    HH – Bower is due back this week but Waite is due back as well so not sure both will be in.

    Hunt is ripe and Ladson has a couple of weeks

  32. HomersHero

    April 28, 2010 at 8:16 pm

    Thks AF043. just worried Hunt may score well against the tigers!!

  33. Champs

    April 28, 2010 at 8:40 pm

    Went for the rookie mid option and still have Barlow, Trengove, Martin, Morabito & Bastinac. Keen to move on Morabito & possibly Bastinac however the downgrade targets aren’t looking too appealing.

    I don’t think JKT has good job security and Howlett is still injured. What’s the chance of any other mids making a debut this week, or for that sake, this season?

    I’m thinking I may go Morabito – JKT but hold on to Bastinac hoping that he hits his BE and a candidate for downgrade comes along. Real shame as I just about nailed the rookie mids however downgrade targets could present a problem. Darn.

  34. Pig1968

    April 28, 2010 at 8:40 pm

    Peterson Gawn.(thanks for the memories). Tippet on the up, bargain. JBrown gawn, before relton roberts is worth more. His injury is far worse than reported. He could hardly walk off the ground on the weekend. If he plays this week and knowing how corageous he is, he probably will expect a poor score.

  35. Marcz

    April 28, 2010 at 9:54 pm

    JB is a certain starter this week for the game at the scg!!! according to

  36. gruby

    April 28, 2010 at 10:33 pm

    Any advise on best options for down grading Riemers to a rookie…..already have Gumby and Rockliff….

  37. numberwang

    April 29, 2010 at 12:21 am

    Too right Arky. Once Bock comes in, Davis is toast. Shame people leave their brains behind and trade before friday night.
    A few bottomed out players worth picking up but no decent downgrades! Somebody loan me half a million please! Ha

  38. Disco DB

    April 29, 2010 at 3:39 am

    What was I talking about, I don’t even have Hunt in DT, and only a $58k profit (thus far) probably justifies it.

  39. deepblue

    April 29, 2010 at 3:00 pm

    I have $219,900 in the kitty after cashing in Peterson for Rockliff last week. Is it worth upgrading hunt straight to a premium or trading down to a rookie and then upgrading a Salvagni/Maguire to a premium.

    Also would like to get Sylvia but is it worth upgrading McKenzie/Trengove when their price is still going to increase substantially?

    Tempted to trade out Waite for Sylvia but it’s my backline/midfield which needs upgrading so may be a waste of $$


  40. neaod001

    April 29, 2010 at 9:36 pm

    I like the look of Davis over Hams and Dea. Crows at 0-5 have to “play the kids” and Davis looks serviceable from a DT perspective.

  41. sleepwalk

    April 30, 2010 at 8:55 pm

    I’ll keep Hunt and Ladson as my bench players as long as I can, and play Maguire at no. 7.

    Ball is ok – around his average for price and always likely to get 100 when you least expect it. Unless you need him to afford your upgrade (Rischitelli, Judd, Selwood) don’t worry too much about trading.

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