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Self-raising Pav: Rollercoaster for Round 5, 2009

Rollercoaster: Round 5

Some of the best premium fantasy forwards in the game are at a temptingly low price point this week.

A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Super Coach.

Rollercoaster of love

I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.

Rollercoaster of love... down!Big Dippers

I’ll be honest: I got lucky last week by talking down Brent Harvey. I also had a win with Luke Hodge, who looks like he’s back to full fitness and able to break the forward tags that are still troubling the likes of Lindsay Gilbee and Andrew McLeod. Buy Hodgey if you can.

Everyone will be looking at Lance Franklin again this week, because they know he’s got Essendon in a couple of weeks and he normally kickstarts his mid-season run with a bag against them. But what of this week against Carlton? Last year in round 22 he got Paul Bower as an opponent and kicked his 100th goal of the season, in a game that I’m not sure a decent form line can be taken from. The previous year he missed the 100-point belting the Hawks dished out to the Blues, so I’m left with a few question marks as to how he’ll go. Will he match up on Bower, Michael Jamison or Jarrad Waite? I daresay Waite will be used forward again, at least to start with, so to me the issue is whether you think Buddy is going to choose this week to explode like we all know he’s going to at some point, or whether he’s going to do it against Adam McPhee the week after. Better to be safe than sorry on this one, I think, and buy him early.

AFL 1st Preliminary Final - Sydney Swans v FremantleMatthew Pavlich cracked the ton in both competitions for the first time this season in the win over Sydney. Is it a case of when Pav fires, Freo fires, or the other way round? If you have enough money to upgrade Hayden Skipworth to Pav this week, keep in mind this corollary: in 16 Derbies, Pav has scored a DT ton in only one, and that was in 2002. Admittedly scores of 88 and 96 last year weren’t too bad, but if you think he’s about to explode into a string of “hunjis” then tone down your expectations a little.

If you can’t reach Franklin or Pavlich, a lot of coaches are looking at Daniel Giansiracusa. Much conjecture surrounds what exactly has been wrong with him, with even Bulldog supporters not having a sniff of an injury. From reading the Footscray boards, it seems to be a coaching issue, with Rodney Eade allegedly punishing Gia for not working hard enough in the Eagles game by benching him for long periods – though I hardly think Giansiracusa was the only one who had a down day on that particular Sunday afternoon. More worrying is the thought that maybe the rise of Shaun Higgins as a forward rotating into the midfield has starved Gia of some oxygen in that attacking 50. I would like to see Gia crack the ton and be given his customary 90% TOG again, rather than the 70%s he has been getting in 2009, before buying him in either competition as a genuine top 7 prospect. Football boots on Rebel Sport Catalogue.

Rollercoaster of love... up!Loop De Loop

The DT Talk boys introduced a new phrase into the fantasy footy lexicon this week: the “red zone”, familiar to those of us who use the excellent FFGenie program to check breakevens. FFGenie colours a breakeven red if it is higher than a player’s average for the year. That often indicates that a play has hit the top of the rollercoaster, though you would have found Ryan Houlihan in the red zone last week and he blew past his breakeven with a hugely junky fourth quarter against the Bulldogs this week, scoring a slutty 58 DT points to take his total to 124. Houlihan was only in the red zone due to an encounter with the DT cash cow killer team in Sydney, and the same was true this week with Paul Hasleby. A combination of Brett Kirk and a tweak in a calf muscle confined Purple Haze to a solitary handball by half time. Thankfully for his tens of thousands of owners, Paul Roos decided to lift the tag at half time and use Kirk elsewhere, allowing Hasleby to score 55 DT points in the second half and almost rescue his season. Unfortunately, missing half a game leaves his breakeven at 100 in DT and 118 in SC, which is 25 points into the red zone. Will Hase be a Holuihan type who can drag himself out of the red zone? Happily, his recent record in Derbies is quite good, with two tons in 2007 and an average of just on 100 from his last four against the West Coast. The long-term concern has to be about Hase getting the tag every week in the wake of Rhys Palmer‘s ACL injury, unfortunately, so I would not blame fantasy coaches who want to take the modest profit on Hasleby and run.

Another bunch of fantasy favourites whose prices are about to go into stall are Taylor Walker, Patrick Dangerfield and Jared Petrenko, all of whom suffered from Neil Craig’s obsession with denying good rookies the time on ground they rightfully deserve to repay the faith shown in them by fantasy coaches. Walker sat out almost the entire third quarter, while Petrenko’s DT score was almost left in the negatives until some late Q4 cheapies, and Dangerfield is being left behind in the TOG rankings as well. Walker’s red zone breakevens of 50/55 are higher than all but one of his five scores so far in either competition. Port’s record against tall key forwards, as you can research using the Breakdown pages, is pretty good, with only Franklin and Riewoldt getting away from them so far. Stay at home full forwards in particular score poorly, as witnessed by the scores of Matthew Lloyd, Jarryd Roughead and Brad Miller. Yes, I’m afraid this week is the top of the rollercoaster for young TW. Craig’s knock on Dangerfield in the pre-season was over his fitness, and he may decide to rest him just to prove the point. As for Petrenko, he’ll be lucky not to be replaced by Brad Symes this week so the decision may be made for you. It’s the Craig way!

I’m sure I would have named at least one player up there that you either have in your side or are eying off this week, so tell me where I’ve gone wrong. What’s up with Gia? When is Buddy going to go off? Have the Crowbot rookies run out of juice? Can Hase maintain the rage? Tell me in the comments.



  1. Dave

    May 1, 2009 at 12:16 pm

    I’m thinking of trading rich for hartlett and then upgrading hasleby to lenny hayes. Anyone think this is a good move?

  2. bigbudyboy

    May 1, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    who is a better fantasy prospect, Dowler (with C. young going out of the team) or Warren?

    @ dave,

    Rich still has more upside i think, he’ll make more money for you.

  3. SuperCodge

    May 1, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    @ Dave

    Depends who your other bench mids are

  4. hairy

    May 1, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    hase will be a premium mid by round 12 but if u want moss go for it

  5. bummer

    May 1, 2009 at 1:46 pm

    Strugglig with a forward upgrade decision,I want to upgrade skipworth and cant decide between pavlich,reiwoldt,giansiracusa ? I am trying to get a good bargain at a cheap price

  6. Heater

    May 1, 2009 at 2:11 pm

    @tuos – you can’t go wrong with either Bartel or Dal Santo. Jump on them if you can. Jimmy’s price has come down so if you want some spare cash after the trade get him now but if not then Nicky Dal is your man…

  7. Greg

    May 1, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    (also the most Risky!)

    I’m thinking of trading Haselby (b/e of 100) for Barham before he drops in cash, and then trading Harvey for Pav.

    This gives you about 220k in the bank…
    This is actually just about the perfect amount needed to upgrade Dan Rich for Dane Swan next week…

    Rich’s b/e is already in the 60’s, and Swan’s 79 (his only sub 110 score this year) will be out of his rolling average next week.

    I’l be modest and say this is the PERFECT option, but the prices are actually a bit tight!
    For this to work for someone with no extra bank (me) you’ll need Rich to score 62 and Dane Swan less than 120 this week…

    Fortune does tend to favor the brave tho..

  8. chris

    May 1, 2009 at 2:29 pm

    Greg went a similar risky triple trade in Boomer to Warren, Haselby to Ablett, already had a bit of $$ in the bank so have enough to go Skippy to Buddy(or other forward around $500K) next week

  9. azzacooney

    May 1, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    my team is too good. foley out swan in this week. weekly prize coming my way thank youuuu

  10. Confused ruck pick

    May 1, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    McIntosh or Petrie to cover Hille?

  11. Igie

    May 1, 2009 at 3:14 pm


  12. PaulP

    May 1, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    Korza – i just looked at your side and you aint winning mate – no where near enough money makers champ – good luck but your no chance

  13. PaulP

    May 1, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    KORZA – for a start guys like russel, nahas, vince and godwin are not the kind of huys that you want in your team –

    You have no where near enough money makers and I currently am 100 points behind you with 18 trades in hand – your finished.

    Also trading up to mid tier players – pointless and a waste of trades.

    I am not sure how you think 180K will allow you to upgrade 2 rookies to a mid tier player and a premium – kidding yourself pal

    Keep trading chump.

  14. PaulP

    May 1, 2009 at 3:38 pm

    Monty I notice you have deleted Haryscary’s posts –

    A little unfair to not explain yourself buddy – All he (and others) want is to know whether they should bother using your site for live stats ongoing.

    In away it is very cowardly – its not hard to explain things to you loyal customers

  15. Eddicat

    May 1, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    I’m no expert but T.Walker could be trade bait now. He’s gone up 100k and averaging 45.

  16. trader

    May 1, 2009 at 4:06 pm

    Barham or Collins ?

  17. Domtal

    May 1, 2009 at 4:08 pm

    Sucks to be me. Have Petrenko, Dangerfield, Hasleby. just traded Hille for mumford? u hope he plays this week

  18. Eddicat

    May 1, 2009 at 4:27 pm

    Collins looks good to me – he can kick straight unlike Barham

  19. bigbudyboy

    May 1, 2009 at 4:33 pm

    should i get dowler or warren for walker?

  20. steve

    May 1, 2009 at 4:47 pm

    With all this week trade talk with Hille’s injury im surprised Sandilands name hasnt been thrown up much. Kruezer’s a little risky i think

  21. Tuos

    May 1, 2009 at 5:12 pm

    @heater and paddy
    cheers for that ended up going for Nicky Dal just hope he can keep it up!!

  22. TR

    May 1, 2009 at 5:39 pm

    Wellingham in
    Heath Shaw out

  23. age

    May 1, 2009 at 6:10 pm

    @ Tuos

    Please tell me you haven’t gone Nick Dal over Bartel?

    Bartel all the way in my opinion…to the bank and back…

    Hamish Mc in for Hille…

  24. cdrobert

    May 1, 2009 at 6:22 pm

    @ PaulP.

    Monty has explained himself mate

  25. jb

    May 1, 2009 at 6:24 pm

    Reckon Bartel, Boyd & Pendes are equal if not better than Dal?
    What yas reckon?

  26. age

    May 1, 2009 at 6:28 pm


    Yeh I think it’s fair to say that…

    BUT Bartel is in a league of his own…chasing down Ablett in my opinion…

  27. D. GiansiraIcantspellmyname

    May 1, 2009 at 11:31 pm

    Thanks Disco.

    Wait ’til you see me play baby!

  28. Kenzie

    May 3, 2009 at 4:55 am

    hey monty just thought i would tell you that when you click on jonno browns name it says he has only played 3 games.cheers for the site and keep up the good work 😉

  29. Heater

    May 4, 2009 at 10:22 am

    Has anyone else got this problem: only one player on my bench played on the weekend and that was Beams who looks like he’ll be out for a couple.

    I have: Cheney & Broughton
    Beams & Anthony
    Jacobs & White
    Skippy & Ballantyne

    I have a sick feeling in my stomuch that I’m in a little trouble. Any thoughts re: what I can/should do?? Cheers.

  30. Nick

    May 4, 2009 at 1:47 pm

    First step is to wait until the full teams are released.

    Then you need to decide which of your bench players are not going to play this year, then those which will not play again, then those which have made you enough money already.

    Then pick your holes in your 22. If you’re weak in your forwards then, for example, you can downgrade Beams and upgrade Skipworth, or vice versa if your mids are weaker.

    Don’t bring rookies in to replace rookies, pick them with an eye to them potentially fitting on the last rung of your 30 man squad in round 22.

    Skipworth and Beams might both be back playing in a month. Less chance but possible is Ballantyne and Broughton. Pyke didn’t try and get himself dropped for his first game so White may be the man to move on, you’ll need to figure out where your rucks are going.

    Personally, I have Jacobs, Robinson, Beams and Raines on the bench. I may see three of those again this year.

    Second rule of Dream Team is to not make any calls without knowing all the information, ie jumping off Beams today. Wait for the news, don’t bring in Cockie until he’s selected to play his third game.

  31. Heater

    May 4, 2009 at 3:19 pm

    @ Nick

    Thanks, mate, wise words & advise. I’d like to keep Skippy as I reckon he’ll come straight back in and once he plateaus in price I can trade him for someone better.

    Pyke seems to be a Paul Roos fav anyway so Whites chance of a recall could be slim. If I do swap him for a rookie I’ll have some handy cash to use.

    You would think Brought/Ballantyne are not too far away and with Boomer’s injury Liam Anthony could slot into a struggling North midfield (once he is fit enough of course)

    Cheney could make way for Hurley in my side. With Fletcher out with a broken leg for sometime Hurley seems like the man they’ll go for to replace him.

  32. Roy

    May 5, 2009 at 8:15 am

    monty where the flower is round 6 wrap?????????? its flowering tuesday

  33. hamish

    May 5, 2009 at 9:38 am

    this is a joke of a website these days

  34. Tim

    May 5, 2009 at 11:58 am

    Agree – this website has strong points, but it really needs a fresh column or even a heading or something from Monday morning…this place becomes a ghost town between Sunday night and mid-week. FanFooty was a 9/10 preseason but outside live scores, is really only a 3/10 during the season.

  35. Brad

    May 5, 2009 at 12:16 pm

    Richo gone with the hamstring.
    At least 12 weeks.

  36. McHavoc (Hinch)

    May 5, 2009 at 12:58 pm

    Enjoy Gary Ablett people – I hope its painful

  37. Nick

    May 5, 2009 at 1:29 pm

    Gary Ablett is the player on my team I most prefer to be injured. His recent form has thrown his price up, even on his three quarters effort of 90 still had some return, so there’s nobody in the competition I couldn’t choose if I decided to make the trade.
    Bartel; solid DT scorer for years, I can’t figure out whether Bartel or Selwood will get more attention now Ablett is out for a few weeks. My gut tells me Selwood is more damaging and shutting him down will almost cut out all the loose ball Bartel has been marking. There’s going to be a shuffle at Geelong for the next game, you can’t bring a player in and expect them to be Gary for two to three weeks.

    His value isn’t going to change and I’m playing for league pride, I’ll hold onto him. Ideally, I could trade him out for Swan, who would continue scoring well, Bartel would be more closely watched and his numbers would drop so when Gary is finally back in the side I can pick up Jimmy on the cheap and he’ll go back to his pre-adductorgate numbers.

  38. benno

    May 5, 2009 at 5:35 pm

    hmmm … tuesday arvo, and ablett and richo are injured, throwing our teams into turmoil. might be time for an updated front page pronto monto.

  39. u mad?

    May 5, 2009 at 5:42 pm

    m0nty’s awfully quiet these days…not answering to critics, slow at updating the site, watsup?

  40. WhippingCupcakes

    May 5, 2009 at 6:02 pm

    Bartel’s numbers to drop while Ablett is out? I don’t think.

    Ablett was out for rd’s 16,17 and 18 last year. Bartell’s scores were 94, 147 and 144 respectively. And the 97 and 147 were against the Bulldogs and Hawthorn.

  41. Nick

    May 6, 2009 at 7:26 am

    Maybe Monty has a life… never….

  42. Rob

    May 6, 2009 at 8:25 am

    i heard, that every nite before the hawks play, Monty climbs onto is roof dressed up in a chicken costume (because he couldnt find a hawk costume)and starts doin a dance to try and help them win

  43. Rob

    May 6, 2009 at 8:29 am

    hes been detained a few times from these strange occurrances thats why hes been easin up on the site abit

  44. Zack

    May 6, 2009 at 8:30 am

    @ Nick

    Monty has a life…… a virtual one haha

  45. Comic Book Guy aka Monty

    May 6, 2009 at 8:35 am

    Ease up on the real life comic book guy will ya. na wats the point, bloody make a new article. its already wednesday and still no round 6 wrap u slacker

  46. Comic Book Guy aka Monty

    May 6, 2009 at 8:36 am

    my bad, sorry u have got the wrap up, it took a while tho, ur lettin urself go in ur old age

  47. morearticlesforfsakes

    May 6, 2009 at 8:42 am

    more articles monty instead of 3 per week and the same old boring crap would be nice

  48. WeWantMoreArticles

    May 6, 2009 at 8:48 am

    We Want More Articles, We Want More Articles, We Want More Articles, We Want More Articles, We Want More Articles

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