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Don’t panic: Preview of Round 1 fantasy lockout 2009

R1 lockout preview

All sorts of players you’ve barely heard of are suddenly of fantasy interest as the deadline looms for teams.

With the final week of the NAB series out of the way, the next week and a half lies open for fantasy coaches to prepare for what I have been calling the 160 minutes of maelstrom: the two hours and 40 minutes between the announcement of AFL teams for round 1 at 5pm AEST on Thursday March 26, and the beginning of the first match at 7.40pm when the AFL Dream Team and Super Coach Web sites will “lock out” participants from amending their teams.

This leads us to wonder, naturally, about exactly who is going to be selected in those teams. Complicating matters is the staggered rollout of the teams.

Thursday 26 March: Teams of 22 at Wednesday 5pm, final teamsheets at Thursday 6.55pm

Richmond v Carlton: Thankfully we are going to have plenty of warning about whether Chris Yarran and Mitch Robinson are playing. Those of you hoping to slot in Angus Graham and Sam Jacobs as your #3 and #4 set-and-forget bench rucks will also get full assurances. Don’t be surprised if Jacobs is named as an emergency and then comes in for the underdone Kreuzer. Alex Rance may also make the emergencies list but there’s little chance of him starting. I don’t think there are any other likely late changes for either side at this early stage.

Friday 27 March: Teams of 22 at Wednesday 5pm

Hawthorn v Geelong: Plenty of intrigue around both team selections, with more than a little interest in the emergencies. With Robert Campbell, Campbell Brown, Luke Hodge and Grant Birchall all possible late withdrawals from their lingering injuries, the emergency list for the Hawks will get a workout from fantasy coaches. Expect to see Brendan Whitecross in the selected 22, probably on the bench, with Beau Dowler as an emergency to cover the backline along with Ryan Schoenmakers, with Josh P. Kennedy or Garry Moss to provide emergency depth for the midfield. If Schoenmakers has to play then the Hawks will lose big. On the Cats side, expect either or both of Dan McKenna and Jeremy Laidler to appear in the emergencies if not named in the 22, depending on what the match committee decide to do to replace Josh Hunt. If David Wojcinski is named after his limited preseason he’s a prime candidate for a late withdrawal, especially if Simon Hogan only makes the emergencies, as would Cameron Mooney if Travis Varcoe or huge longshot Mitch W. Brown is lurking in the 25. Overall, though, given the importance of this game I wouldn’t expect a lot of late withdrawals as both clubs will want to put their best foot forward.

Saturday 28 March: Teams of 22 at Thursday 5pm (no squads expected on Wednesday)

Collingwood v Adelaide: The battle for the 22nd spot at Collingwood between Ben Johnson and Dayne Beams will provide much interest, but it’s on the Crows side where a lot more fantasy emphasis lies. Will Andy Otten keep out Patrick Dangerfield? Is Jared Petrenko going to play in a team with Jarrhan Jacky allegedly penciled in already? Can we believe the Taylor Walker hype and is Trent Hentschel fit enough to please the notoriously finicky Neil Craig?

Brisbane v West Coast: All eyes will be on the Lions bench where fantasy coaches will hope to see the name of Daniel Rich. Some of the more adventurous coaches will be taking a chance on Matthew Leuenberger as a starter and will want to see if Jamie Charman gets up, while others will want to know if Simon Black plays or whether there’s a place for Albert Proud or James Polkinghorne. For the Eagles most concern would be over Chris Masten and Brad Ebert who are both sore, and Dean Cox who is carrying a broken cheekbone. Mitchell Brown is firmly entrenched at CHB in this 22, no problem.

St Kilda v Sydney: It’s a case of last men standing with both of these lists, with Sydney scratching to find a decent 22 to name, and the Saints struggling yet again with multiple soft tissue injuries all over their squad. Nick Riewoldt will play but Jason Gram, Justin Koschitzke, Steven King, Max Hudghton and Matt Maguire may not, leaving the door open for obscure fantasy smokies like Jack Steven, Tom Lynch and the redoubtable Zac Dawson. Most interest at the Swans focuses on the vacant #2 ruck position with Mike Pyke gaining quickly on Jesse White, and Daniel Currie apparently no chance through injury. I can’t see anyone getting excited about the fantasy point-scoring potential of this game in any case, can you?

Sunday 29 March: Squads of 25 at Thursday 5pm (no squads expected on Wednesday)

Melbourne v North Melbourne: Here’s where it starts getting very tricky. Jack Grimes has been locked into the Dream Teams of all of the Melbourne players, according to Cale Morton speaking last Friday on SEN, but his late withdrawal on the weekend with “soreness” is worrying. Dean Bailey may also decide to name Matthew Whelan in the 22 to allow him time to prove his fitness with the calf injury he’s been carrying (or just to play silly buggers) and include small backmen like Kyle Cheney and/or Simon Buckley in the extended bench to cover for him. The Demons have five tall defenders all vying for selection with not much to choose between them – James Frawley, Stefan Martin, Colin Garland, Jared Rivers and Matthew Warnock – and can probably only play three of them (despite what I said in the v7.0 projection post!), though they will likely name four in their 25. They will probably also name Aaron Davey in the squad despite his heel injury on the weekend, leaving another late withdrawal candidate, maybe with a smokie like Nevilla Jetta to jump from behind a cloud to nick his spot. With all of those shenanigans going on, I think we’ll at least get clarity on the #2 Melbourne ruck, with Jake Spencer named instead of John Meesen. As for the Kangaroos… oh dear. They could name a squad of 38 and leave us with just as much a sense of helplessness as when they name a 25. Only Dean Laidley knows what evil lurks in the mind of Dean Laidley. If both Liam Anthony and Jack Ziebell are named on the extended bench and in your fantasy team, pick up your rosary beads and start working them like a CWA regional president. If the Junkyard Dog completely screws us by also naming Nathan Grima in the bench of seven, time to fire up the cement truck and load up with chicken manure for the trip to Arden St. I would expect Grima and one of Anthony or Ziebell to be safely ensconced in the starting 18, however. Fool me twice, shame on me!

Port Adelaide v Essendon: I expect the Power’s 22 to be fairly static, with the Robbie Gray/Wade Thompson decision and the Paul Stewart/Jacob Surjan coinflip being the only outstanding matters. Unfortunately neither will be resolved by lockout with all four likely to make the 25 we will have by lockout, so picking Thompson will be a case of blind faith – unless Choco Williams decides to take pity on us long-suffering fantasy coaches and commits to Thompson unequivocally through the press. As for Essendon, figuring out which of Scott Gumbleton, Jay Neagle and Scott Lucas will play is not so much a matter of faith as Ouija boards and chicken entrails. The ghost of Kevin Sheedy and his Windy Hill flu hangs over this list, and there will be no guarantees even if Matthew Knights makes the usual assurances at media conferences, given the chronic nature of the physical ailments each of these three continue to suffer through. Michael Hurley or David Zaharakis may very well be named in the extended bench but miss out due to being cover for senior players like Bachar Houli or Jobe Watson. Hayden Skipworth may also give us a scare by being on the bench, but expect him to play.

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs: The Bulldogs are reasonably settled at this point, with the health of Tom Williams the only sticking point meaning that he’ll probably be named along with Andrejs Everitt and the fitter of the two making the cut. Jarrad Grant will probably excite us by an appearance in the extended bench but his likelihood of surviving the cut is low at this stage. On the Fremantle side… well, you tell me. Sure, we all want Nick Suban and Greg Broughton to play, and they haven’t got much in the depth chart left to leapfrog, but can Mark Harvey really play three debutantes in the one match, given that he’s almost honour-bound to play Stephen Hill? The answer, looking at the Docker injury list, is that he may have to. Expect to see Suban and Broughton on that extended bench alongside cod-ordinary names like Scott Thornton, Clayton Hinkley and Steven Dodd. Good luck if you decide to commit to either of the two youngsters, because you’re taking a big risk.

Above all, don’t panic! How many rookies from Sunday teams are you starting and/or putting on your bench? Are you picking any players purely because you are more confident of their round 1 selection? How fearful are you of sabotage by the likes of Laidley, Bailey and Harvey? Tell me how conservative you’re taking round 1 lockout in the comments.

86 Comments

86 Comments

  1. Lakey91

    March 15, 2009 at 9:36 pm

    Few people reckon the NRL one was a biatch this weekend (run by same people i think, has exactly same format). I didnt check my team or try to change (dont care for NRL), but mates said they couldnt make one trade (kept getting blank screens).

  2. XztatiK

    March 15, 2009 at 9:38 pm

    “Is Jared Petrenko going to play in a team with Jarrhan Jacky allegedly penciled in already?”

    Where’d you hear that?

    Anyone got more info on the injuries of Big Cox, Masten and Suban’s shoulder?

  3. m0nty

    March 15, 2009 at 9:41 pm

    Neil Craig endorsed Jacky in the press, Xztatik.

  4. XztatiK

    March 15, 2009 at 9:48 pm

    Must’ve missed it. That’d make things interesting. Especially if Porsche, NVB, Rutten and Symes are available.

    Otten’s locked in, he was brilliant on Friday.

  5. fevalenko

    March 15, 2009 at 9:51 pm

    ahhh dammit i had just decided to leave grimes out of my side…but if his own team all locked him in…

  6. Koray

    March 15, 2009 at 9:56 pm

    Will any of the ruckman keep up with the boundry umps in 2009? I doubt it.I think Big Cox will be a big flop, pardon the punt.

  7. WOOFTA

    March 15, 2009 at 10:04 pm

    Rd 1 is hard enough , but we must also try to envisage line ups and consider team match ups for Rd 3 , when the fun really begins.

  8. Andrew

    March 15, 2009 at 10:04 pm

    The Saints V Swans game will be one to look to get off to a good start, although its looking to be a low scoring game theres sure to be alot of positions/tackles from a few smokies.

  9. Brendan

    March 15, 2009 at 10:12 pm

    what is wrong with cox?

  10. Athomas

    March 15, 2009 at 10:22 pm

    Great read, nothing new really for me, but it was a good read nonetheless 🙂

  11. XztatiK

    March 15, 2009 at 10:36 pm

    So worried about Ziebell/Anthony and Hill/Suban with their respective dickhead coaches.

  12. The 30 Spartans

    March 15, 2009 at 10:53 pm

    And the plot thickens…
    I Still can’t decide between picking the players who I know will play and therefore score or picking the players I know score well but probably won’t play.

    Still I find it kind of ironic how a lot of the teams with the least stability in terms of squad line-ups are playing on the Sunday.

    There is no doubting people will burnt by server over-loads and typical pre-squad antics, its just a question of how much.

  13. Lakey91

    March 15, 2009 at 11:00 pm

    Spartans – you have to play to score though! This should help solve your delima.

  14. Chris

    March 15, 2009 at 11:17 pm

    m0nty, I understand the need to try to be funny in your blogs, this is after all a business. But calling Clayton Hinkley ordinary? Have you actually seen him before? He’ll be nominated for the Rising Star this year, if not win it.

  15. Dicko

    March 15, 2009 at 11:20 pm

    If a team decides to promote a rookie, what sort of notice do they/are they required to give?

    Thinking of Spencer, Broughton etc.

  16. jordahurst

    March 15, 2009 at 11:56 pm

    wudnt bother getting the fill ins from saints and hawks there just guna be dropped at about ronud 2 when all the senior palyers start hitting full fitness

  17. Max Power

    March 15, 2009 at 11:59 pm

    Dicko, I think next friday is the deadline for promoting the nominated rookies (ie. those filling vacant veteran spots).

    Promotions for long-term injuries can happen anytime.

    This is my understanding, maybe someone can confirm?

  18. XztatiK

    March 16, 2009 at 12:01 am

    “He’ll be nominated for the Rising Star this year, if not win it.”

    Lol, and you think the Crows overrate their youngsters, monty 😛

  19. Dicko

    March 16, 2009 at 12:04 am

    Great! Rookies promoted the day after the first lockout 🙁

  20. Anthony

    March 16, 2009 at 12:19 am

    Dont read too much into Round 1 selections. Just think of the number of coaches last year who dropped Rhys Palmer before lockout because he wasnt named for Round 1.

  21. Max Power

    March 16, 2009 at 12:43 am

    No Dicko, 6 days before the lockout.

    Friday 20th

    Lockout is Thursday 26th

  22. Dicko

    March 16, 2009 at 12:47 am

    Thanks MaxPower I was getting a week ahead of myself.

  23. Raf

    March 16, 2009 at 1:02 am

    Yeah, keeping Palmer anyway turned out well. That said, does anyone know why Harvey did’t play Palmer round 1 anyway?

    The only rookies who are that “obvious” that they should be playing are probably Mitch Brown, Hill, Robinson, Ziebell and Anthony and maybe Beams. These are all guys (even considering Laidley and Malthouse) I would be confident will get games even if for some reason they don’t get picked round 1.

  24. Simon

    March 16, 2009 at 8:07 am

    I totally agree with Anthony about rookies. Pick the best rookies in your own opinion. I think, for instance, that I’ll pick Beams regardless of whether or not he’ll play rd 1. I think he will, but if he doesn’t, I think he’ll play very soon after and score well.

  25. John23

    March 16, 2009 at 9:40 am

    Hinkley to win the Rising Star? maybe for Swan Districts, but not in the AFL… hes got a long way to go…

  26. Chris

    March 16, 2009 at 9:43 am

    Well seeing Hinkley already has a Brownlow vote behind him, then he must be an ok player. He should play 22 games this year, so he’s got just as much chance as anyone else.

  27. Rupe

    March 16, 2009 at 10:32 am

    “Yeah, keeping Palmer anyway turned out well. That said, does anyone know why Harvey did’t play Palmer round 1 anyway?”

    Because he’s a dickhead.

  28. Charlie

    March 16, 2009 at 10:41 am

    Agree with what’s been said about rookies. You’ve gotta pick the rooks you think will have the best overall returns between rounds 1-10, not those named in round 1 alone. Do your research and trust it, rather than panic at selection time. This is the Palmer Rule.

    For me, the lockout pressure is more about those marginal cash cows I might take a risk on – Krakouer etc.

  29. Raf

    March 16, 2009 at 10:41 am

    The trouble is many people (myself included) are relying on having at least one rookie actually starting, so you need to be able to rely on a rookie in that position starting. It’s OK if they start a little late from a cash cow point of view, but not from a scoring point of view. Happily I had Lonergan to cover Palmer for round 1 last year.

    This time I think I’m relying on one out of Robinson, Anthony and Beams playing round 1 in mid, and one of Hill, Petrenko and Suban playing round 1 in defence (although if monty is right and Suban may not even play round 1 with Freo’s massive injury list, I am going right off Suban)

  30. Brad

    March 16, 2009 at 10:50 am

    Skipworth was Essendon’s best in their weekend NAB Challenge game.
    Rest assured, he Will start on the ground.

  31. Charlie

    March 16, 2009 at 10:54 am

    True Raf. I have a ‘No Rookies in the 22’ policy, so a bit different for me. Each to their own (esp. those using a gun-rook strategy).

    But I suspect many coaches who start a few rookies on the field – thus taking on a big donut risk in the early weeks – are the same coaches who get so panicked by a potential donut mid-season that they waste a valuable trade to avoid it. (“It’s a must-win match” etc.). Guess you have to have a plan and stick to it. That’s the hard bit!

    m0nty – thanks for your efforts.

  32. Adam

    March 16, 2009 at 3:02 pm

    After much hand wringing I’ve decided to put no rookies in my 22, except for Mitchell Brown who technically isn’t a rookie anyway.

    I have Hill and Petrenko on the bench after last years shenanigans.

    I did have Ziebell and Rich starting , but I got rid of Rich altogether and upgraded to Travis Tuck, with Beams and Davenport on the bench. Some might think I’d be concerned seeming Beams and Davenport haven’t been named by Monty as playing round 1, but with my current midfield of Ablett, Judd, J Selwood, Gibbs, Masten and Tuck I’m not too worried 😀 Might upgrade Davenport to Rich depending on selections, but I need the cash at this stage.

    Beams is a gun, watched him up close during the whole NAB, he can finish from outside 50 which is a hell of a lot more than you can say for Wellingham and Johnno (though I do love Johnno, had him in my mid-field after NAB 1) – oh and Cloke as well btw.

    Ziebell and Walker on my bench in the forwards.

    Anyway, I’ll probably change it all another 10x by lockout regardless…

  33. Brendan

    March 16, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    Hey m0nt … so is Gumby actually injured or what? Got anything official?

  34. Dave

    March 16, 2009 at 4:45 pm

    In terms of the bulldogs, whats the odds of Callan Ward and Shaun Higgins playing?

  35. sam

    March 16, 2009 at 4:47 pm

    wil any of these players play round 1?
    stephen hill
    jack ziebell
    daniel rich
    They are all on my field.
    Thanks

  36. sam

    March 16, 2009 at 4:48 pm

    i have higgnis, i think he should play, has been playing well in NAB and with scott west gone, he should play a major role in their midfield.

  37. Hawker

    March 16, 2009 at 6:02 pm

    Will Sean Rusling Play?

  38. christoff

    March 16, 2009 at 6:13 pm

    hey guys who should take my last spot in the forward line hentschel or krakouer?? your thoughts please

  39. Other Dan

    March 16, 2009 at 6:56 pm

    You’ve excelled yourself again Monty, superb blog.

    The title alone made me chuckle.

    christoff – for me the Hentschel/krakouer choice depends on the game. Hentschel in DT, Krakouer better value if SC.

  40. TRS

    March 16, 2009 at 7:13 pm

    Sean Rusling is close to 0% chance of playing round 1.

  41. Brady

    March 16, 2009 at 7:18 pm

    Hi,
    I have Rich and Ziebell starting, also Jack Grimes, too bigger risk?

  42. mEnty

    March 16, 2009 at 7:27 pm

    too bigger risk? You are bad at English.

    Could be fine if you have appropriate bench players to cover any absences.

  43. Jimmy

    March 16, 2009 at 7:57 pm

    Hmmm I was wondering about Sidebottom and Swift? 2 big names I’d expect to have seen in that list

  44. matt

    March 16, 2009 at 9:19 pm

    steven salopek good or not? why?

  45. Adrian

    March 16, 2009 at 9:44 pm

    Another great post again Monty!!

    Not to be disrespectful at all but you can rest assured Petrenko, Hentschel, Otten and Walker will all play round 1.

  46. John

    March 17, 2009 at 12:00 am

    SAlopek playing off half back get on him 😀

  47. Simonoz

    March 17, 2009 at 7:18 am

  48. Mitch

    March 17, 2009 at 8:18 am

    Will Ben Reid be playing this week?

  49. Max Power

    March 17, 2009 at 11:26 am

    Attn: Dicko

    Looks like I was wrong about the rookie elevation date. Reports on another site indicate that today is the day.

  50. christoff

    March 17, 2009 at 2:13 pm

    thanks otherdan i have gone with Hentschel in dt! hope it works out

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