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Buy low on Barlow: Boys on the Bubble for Round 3, 2010

Boys on the Bubble for R3

If you haven’t already got recordbreaking fantasy star Michael Barlow in your team… last chance!

AFL Rd 2 - Bombers v Dockers

As promised in the preseason, I have now converted this semi-regular feature into a couple of dedicated pages, so that when I’m too lazy to write up the list, at least you can browse through the names yourself. The Boys on the Bubble – Dream Team and Boys on the Bubble – Supercoach pages give you an updated list of all players who played their second game on the weekend. I will do something similar for the regular Rollercoaster feature next week.

And now, a few words on the lists from this week, which are naturally very long as most players have played two matches after two rounds.

Backpocalypse

I have heard of coaches already who, outside of their premium keepers, have their entire backlines filled with negative breakevens. Sucks to not be them! I am glad that my early call of “attack from the backs” was so accurate, though even I didn’t anticipate the start-worthy scores of players like Alex Silvagni and Matt Maguire. On those two, however, I would sound a note of caution in that they have both played in two wins by their clubs, so I wouldn’t be restructuring my backline to push them into starter slots just yet. Maguire in particular looks very injury prone. Silvagni has benefited from being the third tall in the manner of Andy Otten last year, but the injury to Chris Tarrant may give him more responsibility and remove his cheapness. If you picked Mitch Farmer or Jackson Trengove you chose… poorly. As for the likes of preseason favourites Josh Hunt, Beau Waters, Tadhg Kennelly, Nick Malceski and Rick Ladson, sit back and enjoy the ride.

Centrageddon

Amazingly, Michael Barlow is owned by only a third of the coaches in each competition. If you are part of the two-thirds majority, consider yourself a nuffie and burn a trade this week to get him in. I saw a lot of benches in the preseason with the combo of Luke Shuey and Ryan Bastinac, which is paying off in spades right now. Two of my predictions that almost no one heeded, however, are also coming true: Ben Howlett in one of the three mature-agers who make up the top three for lowest breakevens, while I also foretold that the headline act at Melbourne of Tom Scully and Jack Trengove would be upstaged by an older player no one had heard of. My bet personally was on James Strauss, but it turns out Jordie McKenzie was the dark horse. He will be looked at this week by owners of Luke Ball, David Armitage and Mark McVeigh as a sideways trade.

Ruckolocaust

Those who were hemming and hawing in the preseason over which of David Hille, Nic Naitanui, Brad Ottens and Mark Seaby for their #2 ruck would be kicking themselves at this point if they didn’t go with Seaby. Robert Warnock came back to earth this week, and can’t be relied upon to be a starter, thus invalidating some of the more ridiculous trade theories I was hearing last week to push him into a starter slot.

Forwardystopia

There’s not a whole lot of bad news here. Carl Peterson and Mitchell Duncan owners will be very pleased, particularly as injuries and suspensions have increased their respective job security factors greatly after Monday’s game. Cameron Hitchcock has totalled 65 in Dream Team in first quarters this season, then 65 in the remaining six quarters, which is a worry, but the news of further complications to Daniel Motlop‘s injury gives him added JS. Scott Gumbleton looked far better in round 2 than his first game of the season, giving his owners hope of a brighter future. Even owners of James Podsiadly will be happy with Cameron Mooney‘s suspension which will surely give Pods a call-up. The only tragedy is those coaches who went with a combo of Tom Rockliff and Relton Roberts, both of whom are going to struggle to get picked in upcoming games.

Time for a bunch of questions to you lot, which I have been neglecting in recent posts, which is a shame because I know it fires up the passions in the comments. How many of you are confident enough not to tinker with any of your eight bench players this week? How many are regretting going with a premium-heavy backline given the embarrassment of riches in the cheap and rookie price bands? Is anyone prepared to take a chance on McKenzie given how out of the ordinary his R1 and R2 scores are compared to his prior history and his 2010 NAB? How many of you were sticking pins in voodoo dolls of me yesterday as I was at the footy and the live scores weren’t working? 🙁

81 Comments

81 Comments

  1. tickford

    April 6, 2010 at 11:09 pm

    How many people are not trading this week? im trying to find ways to distract myself from logging in for those “must have” trades now

  2. kyle9600

    April 6, 2010 at 11:12 pm

    I liked it how u where at the footy…that way i didnt no the scores and all before the game was televised 😀

    Good to here mooney is suspended 😀 was getting a bit worried about podsi not getting a game.
    As for the rucks id dont think seaby can keep that up but nevertheless still good…nati has been good also with either of the 2 you cant go wrong

    Luke ball should hit form soon, if not i will be of those 1000’s of people really pissed off
    If you went for malceski over kennelly you would be very happy, if you went for both youd be over the moon. Sad thing is i had hunt, waters, malceski, kennely and ladson all in my backs but traded them malceski and ladson because it looked to weak 🙁 how im regretting that now

  3. hawk_88

    April 6, 2010 at 11:14 pm

    I’m thinking of toying with the bench players unless someone can convince me otherwise.

    Relton Roberts and JKT are the two picks I regret, especially the former as I broke my rule and picked him entirely based on stats without seeing them play.

    I also have Tippett and feel like I should trade him. I still think he will come good, but he is looking at a price drop of 60K (SC) after this round alone with another performance like the last two.

    Will probably trade Roberts –> Peterson (no Hooper will mean he can cement a spot) and Tippett –> Seaby or Kreuz depending on the teams named this week.

  4. kyle9600

    April 6, 2010 at 11:14 pm

    that was ofcourse before the season started haha

  5. m0nty

    April 6, 2010 at 11:15 pm

    JKT will be picked this week hawk_88, don’t lose faith.

  6. Dunlop

    April 6, 2010 at 11:18 pm

    Monty, I guess you weren’t aware Rockliff was BOG for the reserves at the weekend with 40p and 7 goals. He’d be more than unlucky to miss out on getting picked this week, especially with Brennan and possibly Adcock out. Whether he can do enough to keep his spot is the question.

    I wouldn’t be writing Relton’s chances for this week either.

  7. RipnRun

    April 6, 2010 at 11:21 pm

    What are your thoughts on Tippett m0nty?
    Two very poor rounds and the rumor of a knee problem, i watched the second half of last weekends game and he looked terrible.
    He has by far been the biggest disappointment for me thus far.
    I ask as i saw him in your SC team, thoughts?

  8. nickbutera

    April 6, 2010 at 11:22 pm

    Hey Monty,

    I’m happy with my current lineup but am looking to make a couple of small adjustments. Love to hear what you think…

    My concerns so far are:

    luke ball – luke ditched his stunning pre-season form as soon as the round one siren sounded. I’m looking to trade him for Cooney.

    Johnathon Brown – i don’t have him. i want him. I’m thinking of trading Gray for him (despite the fact the Gray hasn’t played!)

    Tom Scully – After going with Connors for the entire preseason i made a frantic last minute swap with Scully. I’m going to stick with him for the time being and possiblly trade sideways in a week to connors (if he is injured this week) or Moles (if he continues his round 2 form).

    What are your thoughts? Stick with Ball, Gray and Scully and cut my losses early?

    Love the sight by the way.

  9. Ozzstriker

    April 6, 2010 at 11:27 pm

    I’m very happy with my bench – cash cows pumping out big points and lots of lovely moo-lah! Backs are Silvagni & McGuire, Mids are Banner & Howlett, Rucks are Warnock & (much to my disgust) the untried Grimley… Given the way that the Hawks are struggling in the ruck at the moment, I figure it can’t be too long before they have no option but to introduce a second ruckman into the mix. My forwards are Rockliff and the big Pods… I hear Rockliff tore it up last weekend, and with Mooney out, Pods will walk into the lineup… I’m looking forwards to upgrading my medium priced players (Kennelly, Ladson, Tippett, etc) up to premiums by mid year… Bring it on!!!

  10. hawk_88

    April 6, 2010 at 11:28 pm

    Will defiantly wait for the teams and think he is a big chance to play, especially with Shiels and Osborne looking at missing a week, Hooper and possibly Lewis injured. Will see Moss (can’t believe he was dropped), and 2 or 3 from Suckling, JKT, Muston, Dowler and a bit of a darky in Shane Savage.

    Think Roberts is a chance too given he was supposedly dropped for a late night drinking and not his performance. Even then still might trade.

    Anyone going to tell me to avoid trading Tippett?

  11. Max Power

    April 6, 2010 at 11:31 pm

    Herald Sun says Rockliff will play this week.

    Love the Indiana Jones reference, I use that one a lot and nobody ever gets it.

  12. hawk_88

    April 6, 2010 at 11:32 pm

    @Ozzstriker

    I’m not going to tell you to trade Grimley as he is well.. the 4th ruck but he won’t get a game.

    I’m the first one to criticise Renouf, but I think he was done pretty well all things considered. He isn’t of the class of Ottens, but held his own OK as he did with Jamar. That and seeing Hodge, Lewis, Ellis and floating Peterson going 3rd man up at stoppages, I think we will stick with 1 and re-evaluate when Skipper is fit.

  13. m0nty

    April 6, 2010 at 11:34 pm

    RipnRun: I am livid not so much with Tippett, but with Neil Craig, who has destroyed K-Tip’s scoring with some mystifyingly boneheaded forward structures. If I was in possession of a truck full of chook manure I would dump it on Craig’s driveway. It’s a huge concern. 🙁

  14. Ozzstriker

    April 6, 2010 at 11:37 pm

    @ Hawk_88

    Not that I would consider doing it, and from last memory, he was a back anyway, but you don’t reckon they’d give young Jordan Lisle a pinch hit in the ruck? Renouf looked dead on his feet for the entire last quarter against the G-Town mob…

  15. Manikato1

    April 6, 2010 at 11:37 pm

    Interesting to note that teams that took the multiple rookie midfielders strategy (more than 2 rookie starters) are struggling at the top end of the leaders board at the moment. Long way to go yet however.

    Dumping Ball probably depends on the rest of your midfield. If you have premiums that can carry him you could stay with him.

    Rockliffe and Pods will turn up soon and if you have them and have got thru with needing them in play so far stick with them too.

  16. Verti

    April 6, 2010 at 11:46 pm

    I am still hopeful about Rockliff and Pods

  17. hawk_88

    April 6, 2010 at 11:49 pm

    @Ozzstriker

    If they felt we needed a second dedicated ruck he would be my choice from our list atm. Apparently Dowler also has a leap on him (although I can’t claim to have seen it) so he might be in contention. Renouf did look flat, but so did everyone given how many players we were down and how hard the game was. We also didn’t rotate Roughead well into the ruck given how solid his hands were I think we needed to back Buddy and maybe Shoenmakers or Morton even despite Roughy’s form.

  18. HANK

    April 7, 2010 at 12:13 am

    I hope im right here,,i have tippett and will hold onto him as i believe the crows need goals big time and he is part of that,so is Walker.They will produce or Niel Craig mey get the sack.

  19. Manikato1

    April 7, 2010 at 12:16 am

    So Monty are you conceding you may have made a blue with your assessment of Seaby earlier in the pre season? Not sure why you took such a set against him.

  20. m0nty

    April 7, 2010 at 12:20 am

    Seaby has had some excellent scores, particularly given the low TOG he has been given. I was right about the TOG concerns but underestimated his points-per-minute potential. He has only played against King and Maric though, I’d like to see him against a top 5 ruckman.

  21. DT=Life

    April 7, 2010 at 12:23 am

    You missed out on Nason there M0nty, surely he’s very popular (i know he’s in my team) and he’s worked out pretty well so far. I certainly won’t change my rookies, I have:

    Nason
    McGuire
    Martin
    Barlow
    Shuey
    Trengove
    Warnock
    Lobbe
    Hitchcock
    Gumbleton

    I am however worried about Tippet (as are alot of coaches) and Daniel Wells who has managed to burn me badly 2 years in a row now. I will try to hold off trading though and suck it up on both of them.

  22. Manikato1

    April 7, 2010 at 12:30 am

    Well most of the supposed top ruckmen are travelling lousy at the moment bar Sandi. Swans have Richmond, Roos and Eagles at SCG next three games so I think potential is there for good scores still to come. In fact do you consider the draw in your selections Monty? Swans had a good first 6 games (goes pear shaped big time after that!) and Dogs had a reasonable draw as well

  23. DT=Life

    April 7, 2010 at 12:43 am

    Also m0nty i owe you an apology, you were of course right about the mid-price backs being superior to the mid-price forwards with ballantyne being the only one so far that fills me with confidence in contrast to malceski and waters slutting it up down back. Its a shame you went so risky on your rookies and mid-pricers (bate) otherwise you’d have a very fine team.

  24. Scratchy

    April 7, 2010 at 1:07 am

    @Manikato1

    I’d like to point out that of the next 3 ‘easy’ opponents, the latter 2 have indisputably 2 of the best ruckmen in the comp (even if Coxy’s scores are down that doesn’t help Seaby cos NicNat is backing him up)

    I picked Seaby for SC (playing for Sydney was a part of that). Wish I picked him over Hille in DT but Hille has been serviceable for a knee reco comeback, and should hopefully improve.

  25. jdog333

    April 7, 2010 at 1:08 am

    happy with all of my rookies so far. apart from hitchcock and relton roberts. is hitchcock going to hold his spot and will relton regain his?

    also, what are peoples views on barry hall? keep or trade for ballentyne, ziebell or dangerfield?

  26. Manikato1

    April 7, 2010 at 1:25 am

    Scratchy

    I’m a WC supporter and I can assure you Cox is one of the first to be picked normally. However…he had a crap pre season has got major injury issues which although he is slowly working thru but he is probably a month off his best form if he stays off the injury list.

  27. smeangie

    April 7, 2010 at 1:47 am

    As a newby to dt/sc comps am curious on what kind of price jumps u r expecting for seaby, barlow, jkt etc this week

  28. Maxxis

    April 7, 2010 at 2:07 am

    anyone one know anything about gary rohan. i thought he looked good in the preseason and stupidly i picked him over jetta. is he on the cusp? or does jetta have his spot and will only get a look in if sydney have a drop in form?

  29. Vossy086

    April 7, 2010 at 5:52 am

    Really concerned about the form of tippet, however i am willing to give him another couple of weeks. Hunt is hurting in the back line, his price will rise however he is not delivering on potential. Rockliff will play this week which helps. no trades for another couple of weeks i think

  30. magpies76

    April 7, 2010 at 6:17 am

    I am loving my reserves at the moment:
    Maguire & Silvagni
    Shuey & Trengove
    Warnock & Trengove
    Gumbleton & Duncan

  31. wceagles

    April 7, 2010 at 7:26 am

    Unless Andrew Moore is named this week I will most likely be doing Moore > Duncan. This will earn me an instant 35k plus another 100k when I downgrade Duncan to a Rockliff or Fyfe, so I can see the value of using my first trade on this move as it will earn me quite a bit which will go a long way to upgrading my rookie mids.

  32. ronl

    April 7, 2010 at 8:54 am

    Nobody concerned about Mitch Clarke anymore? He and Tippett causing me sleepless nights. Will probably go Clarke to Kreuzer and Tippett to Franklin/Roughead unless some wise person can convince me not to.

  33. jarrad_

    April 7, 2010 at 9:29 am

    you forgot to mention that brennan has been suspended and rockliff will come in for him

    so your comment of rockliff struggling to get a game are wrong

  34. bmcdougall

    April 7, 2010 at 9:44 am

    Hi Monty

    I know there is going to be a little bit of told you so with this post however I ended up going with Mitch Clarke and David Hille (who’s moving like a mountain at the moment)and was wondering if it would be worth tading either to bring in the likes of Kruze?

    Interested in your thoughts????

  35. Gooser

    April 7, 2010 at 9:52 am

    ronl:

    I have the same issues with Clark and Tippett. Whilst my scores have been pretty decent at the moment 2343 and 2233 I am thinking of pulling the trigger and making the following 2 trades.
    Clark to Seaby and Tippett to Brown, overall I gain 110700 in cash and 167 ppg.

  36. korza

    April 7, 2010 at 10:15 am

    I am sitting pretty at no 6 overall S/C thanks to this site.Have not traded as yet but the Ball/Hille combo could cost me a set of new keys.
    Seriously looking at downgrading Ball and upgrading Hille to Kruizer.

  37. BigV

    April 7, 2010 at 10:57 am

    If Pods goes OK in his first two games, then I will look at him but if he goes spud, no way

  38. Arky

    April 7, 2010 at 11:35 am

    I’m happy with the mostly premium back structure. Way too early to be laughing about Hunt, Ladson or Kennelly who have all had one good week and one bad week. Malceski I always thought was a chance to be a premium, but injury risk (still present) scared me off. And Waters I have as 7th back, despite you talking him down so much Monty!

    I would probably be less happy with the premium back structure if I had Hargrave or Duffield or if I’d missed Goddard or Hodge, of course 🙂

    Also a big stretch to say you predicted anything close to Jordie McKenzie (not a debutant and not at rookie price) upstaging Scully and Trengove… the guy you actually talked up has kind of sucked… I would like to have got McKenzie, of course, but I’m perfectly happy with Scully’s progress, and he’ll just get better as the weeks go on.

    Waiting to see Seaby against a good ruck (I know Sydney played St Kilda first up, but McEvoy and an unfit aging King are not good), but clearly the Sydney style boosts his scoring potential as it did for Jolly. I’m still holding Clark, in the long run I’ll gamble that he’ll pick up and Seaby fall off. There’s also the factor that opposition clubs will not have really been seriously preparing for Seaby due to his hackness and lack of games in recent times for WCE. Teams will now do their homework on him.

    Forward rookie selections will be veeeeery interesting this week. BTW monty, as a Hawk fan, what role did Peterson play against Geelong with Franklin back in the team?

  39. Marcz

    April 7, 2010 at 11:59 am

    i broke my preseason resolution of no trades until the price rise as im starting 6 rookies… however the mitch clark thing coulndt be ignored with charman soon to be up an about soon i see the lions sticking to the 2 ruckmen…so i swung the axe picked up the seadog from sydney and now have a whopping 400,000 in my cap, currently im sitting on 4242 points good for a ranking of 4853 about 400 points off the pace setter… anybody else ditch clark???

  40. mattyd

    April 7, 2010 at 12:14 pm

    I reckon hang onto Tippett. There is an awful lot of doubt about him but when he fires can get reasonable scores. When crowies start to pick up, and they will, he will improve

  41. Spector

    April 7, 2010 at 12:22 pm

    The only “premium” back that has let me down so far is Goodwin. Hodge, Goddard and Carazzo have all score decently and my other selections in the backline have gone pretty good too.

    I decide this year to not spend any money on a premium ruck, went with Hille and Seaby combo. This is probably the only risk in my team and so far it has paid off.

    I went forward heavy with my money and this seems to be working pretty well. (Also did this last year).

    Just need my unique picks in Ryan Griffen and Brent Harvey to step up and score a few more.

    No trades for me this week, have had 30 players in RD1 and RD2. Rooks scoring well.

  42. grum88

    April 7, 2010 at 1:23 pm

    Hey Monty grt post!
    DO ya reckon its worth looking at trading Tippett this week???
    I have him as a keeper and so far I have no injuries and all my players are playing including my bench (except for Lobbe of course )
    Im quite keen on not trading but having Boomer, Tippett, Hall and Warren in my Forward line is making me a little towy this week!!!

  43. grum88

    April 7, 2010 at 1:37 pm

    toey

  44. Marcz

    April 7, 2010 at 2:26 pm

    stick with ur forwards mate but id have a look into seaby goldstein and to alesser extent ottens if tippetts in ur ruck division, he was inconsistent last year and has some ongoing knee tendonitis problems, it would make u around 100,000 in cash now and if u traded them out later in the year another 100,000 as they r set to rise

  45. Gooser

    April 7, 2010 at 3:41 pm

    If you were to trade Clark who is best out of Seaby or Jamar?

    I dont know much about either besides Seaby couldnt get much of a go at West Coast and Jamar was injured last year.

  46. BoMBerZ-93

    April 7, 2010 at 4:36 pm

    hey guys just wondering what everyonethinks about trading cameron bruce for barlow this week?

  47. atrain

    April 7, 2010 at 5:25 pm

    Im fairly confident in my bench players im spewing u swung me onto jkt instead of howlett at the last second monty but surely hel come in for osbourne this week and apparently relton was out for discipline reasons I went with 4 back premiums and 3 value picks in waters mal tadgh pretty happy so far. Mckenzie is at too much of an awkward price with my structure to be considered and can he keep up 11 tackles a game? FInally yes dissappointing there were no live scores on monday lucky i had the tv.BoMBerZ-93 omg yes you idiot

  48. Arky

    April 7, 2010 at 5:34 pm

    Bomberz-93:

    Depends who else you have. Gotta get Barlow in… preferably not for a keeper like Bruce though, unless you think his scores in the first 2 weeks will continue.

  49. grum88

    April 7, 2010 at 6:08 pm

    mARCZ: Yeh well said, i have Tippett in my forward line, had Seaby from the get go ;)1 thing ive done right!
    So torn, at the moment i think ill stick with Tippett simply because a lot of people wont.
    Although if he isn’t named this week Ill probably jump off coz’ then we know that Craigy is keeping something from us.

  50. bennyshaw

    April 7, 2010 at 6:27 pm

    Hi Monty,

    I’m doing my own breakevens myself & am wondering why they are different? Has the magic number been lowered from 5312? If you could let me know what it is it would be greatly appreciated

    Cheers
    Benny

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