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Buy low on Barlow: Boys on the Bubble for Round 3, 2010

Boys on the Bubble for R3

If you haven’t already got recordbreaking fantasy star Michael Barlow in your team… last chance!

AFL Rd 2 - Bombers v Dockers

As promised in the preseason, I have now converted this semi-regular feature into a couple of dedicated pages, so that when I’m too lazy to write up the list, at least you can browse through the names yourself. The Boys on the Bubble – Dream Team and Boys on the Bubble – Supercoach pages give you an updated list of all players who played their second game on the weekend. I will do something similar for the regular Rollercoaster feature next week.

And now, a few words on the lists from this week, which are naturally very long as most players have played two matches after two rounds.


I have heard of coaches already who, outside of their premium keepers, have their entire backlines filled with negative breakevens. Sucks to not be them! I am glad that my early call of “attack from the backs” was so accurate, though even I didn’t anticipate the start-worthy scores of players like Alex Silvagni and Matt Maguire. On those two, however, I would sound a note of caution in that they have both played in two wins by their clubs, so I wouldn’t be restructuring my backline to push them into starter slots just yet. Maguire in particular looks very injury prone. Silvagni has benefited from being the third tall in the manner of Andy Otten last year, but the injury to Chris Tarrant may give him more responsibility and remove his cheapness. If you picked Mitch Farmer or Jackson Trengove you chose… poorly. As for the likes of preseason favourites Josh Hunt, Beau Waters, Tadhg Kennelly, Nick Malceski and Rick Ladson, sit back and enjoy the ride.


Amazingly, Michael Barlow is owned by only a third of the coaches in each competition. If you are part of the two-thirds majority, consider yourself a nuffie and burn a trade this week to get him in. I saw a lot of benches in the preseason with the combo of Luke Shuey and Ryan Bastinac, which is paying off in spades right now. Two of my predictions that almost no one heeded, however, are also coming true: Ben Howlett in one of the three mature-agers who make up the top three for lowest breakevens, while I also foretold that the headline act at Melbourne of Tom Scully and Jack Trengove would be upstaged by an older player no one had heard of. My bet personally was on James Strauss, but it turns out Jordie McKenzie was the dark horse. He will be looked at this week by owners of Luke Ball, David Armitage and Mark McVeigh as a sideways trade.


Those who were hemming and hawing in the preseason over which of David Hille, Nic Naitanui, Brad Ottens and Mark Seaby for their #2 ruck would be kicking themselves at this point if they didn’t go with Seaby. Robert Warnock came back to earth this week, and can’t be relied upon to be a starter, thus invalidating some of the more ridiculous trade theories I was hearing last week to push him into a starter slot.


There’s not a whole lot of bad news here. Carl Peterson and Mitchell Duncan owners will be very pleased, particularly as injuries and suspensions have increased their respective job security factors greatly after Monday’s game. Cameron Hitchcock has totalled 65 in Dream Team in first quarters this season, then 65 in the remaining six quarters, which is a worry, but the news of further complications to Daniel Motlop‘s injury gives him added JS. Scott Gumbleton looked far better in round 2 than his first game of the season, giving his owners hope of a brighter future. Even owners of James Podsiadly will be happy with Cameron Mooney‘s suspension which will surely give Pods a call-up. The only tragedy is those coaches who went with a combo of Tom Rockliff and Relton Roberts, both of whom are going to struggle to get picked in upcoming games.

Time for a bunch of questions to you lot, which I have been neglecting in recent posts, which is a shame because I know it fires up the passions in the comments. How many of you are confident enough not to tinker with any of your eight bench players this week? How many are regretting going with a premium-heavy backline given the embarrassment of riches in the cheap and rookie price bands? Is anyone prepared to take a chance on McKenzie given how out of the ordinary his R1 and R2 scores are compared to his prior history and his 2010 NAB? How many of you were sticking pins in voodoo dolls of me yesterday as I was at the footy and the live scores weren’t working? 🙁



  1. cjg_47

    April 7, 2010 at 7:02 pm

    i will be happy if pods n rokliff play.
    other than that im happy with

    i have tippett aswell but dont think hes worht the trade. yet might give him another couple of weeks.

  2. bundyboy

    April 7, 2010 at 7:52 pm

    nah…thought tippet was a ‘set and forget’ option for my ruck with Sandi, but has let me down big time. I think I will trade him out for Seaby, and with the cash can upgrade to J Brown before he gets too dear…..
    don’t like early trades, but the cash differential and points differential is just too good to ignore – and trading for a keeper anyway.

  3. Mots02

    April 7, 2010 at 8:00 pm

    Hi All
    Needing help with a 3 way trade.
    Want to change Dangerfield from MID to FWD to replace Hawkins and buy Barlow for the MID.
    Can this be done with just one trade??

  4. jc315

    April 7, 2010 at 8:10 pm

    Mids: Ablett, Stanton, Anthony, Watson, Trengove, Martin, Bastinac, Shuey

    trade trengove for barlow, or go with three rookies on the field and trade watson for cash? thoughts monty?

  5. pimpmyside

    April 7, 2010 at 8:32 pm

    gary rohan from sydney… I’m going to sit him there for a few more weeks to see if he gets a look in.
    luckily every other player of mine is playing except for Jordan Roughead in the ruck for WB.
    Monty – do you think either of these will get a run (let alone string 3 together) in the next 10 weeks?

  6. J-Mo

    April 7, 2010 at 9:00 pm

    Like groupies and coke to rock stars, patience and trades are what separates the great DT coaches from the good. Upgrading Hille to Kruezer? Unhappy with Scully and Hitchcock? Trading Barry Hall? Lots of very blinkered plans being thrown around after round… 2! With the exception of getting Barlow if you don’t have him… or unless you’ve seriously screwed up somewhere – hold those trades! All the rookies (Scully, Hitchcock) will make money, and good players (like Hall) will come around (how quickly his NAB form has been forgotten) – but entering the finals with no, or limited, trades… you’re just a tone-deaf country singer with 2 strings on his guitar

  7. cougar37

    April 7, 2010 at 9:12 pm

    @ Mots02 – if I correctly understand what you are trying to do, then no. Not in one trade. You would have to sub Dangerfeild (Mid/Fwd) for another Mid/Fwd you want to get rid of. For example. Sub Danger(Mid/Fwd) for Harvey(Mid/Fwd), then use your 1 trade to get rid of Harvey for Barlow. Because the Tommahawk is only a Fwd, what you are suggesting can’t be done in a single trade. I hope this makes sense. Cheers.

  8. Gregorius

    April 7, 2010 at 9:55 pm


    I am feeling very patient with Tippet. The whole Adelaide team seems to be out of sync and looking very tired; perhaps a training scheduling issue. Once they correct, Tippet will be fine. The Fantasy Freako is very short sighted, i would have thought 6 weeks before you hit the trade button.

  9. nick1085

    April 7, 2010 at 9:58 pm

    What to do with Jolly? Why did I pick him in the first place?

    Do I jump aboard the Seaby train and lose a keeper out of my team, or swap him for H-Mac or Kruezer? Or just hold him and hope he comes good?


  10. mervneagle

    April 7, 2010 at 10:41 pm

    Hey Monty (or anyone), can you lend me some advice? I play supercoach and am off to quite a good start. I haven’t traded yet but this week am thinking of trading out goodwin and hall in exchange for malceski and riewoldt. OR, I could trade those two for silvagni and riewoldt. This would leave me tons of cash. I have plenty of good cheapies who are all playing, so don’t desperately need a silvagni.

    Whatcha think?

  11. mervneagle

    April 7, 2010 at 10:45 pm

    Can anyone help me with this one?

    Am thinking of trading out goodwin and b hall for malceski and riewoldt. OR, those same 2 out for silvagni and riewoldt in. OR, should I just leave it the hell alone?

  12. purepablo

    April 7, 2010 at 11:08 pm

    Personnally I think the comments about Mitch Farmer about choosing poorly are not warranted. As the price difference between Silvagni and Farmer is about 80k and Farmer will go up this week as will Silvagni. Sure Farmers first price rise wont be as high but when you look at Richmonds draw Sydney, Melbourne and Freo all sides defenders score reasonable against. Vs Freo’s draw Geelong, St Kilda and Richmond. It will be very interesting to see how Silvagni goes after the next to rounds…22 rounds long not 2


  13. Dunlop

    April 8, 2010 at 3:23 am

    I think Monty’s comments about Farmer are valid. He played the lock-down defender role all pre-season and didn’t scored well, and surprise, surprise it has continued into the season proper. Specialist lock-down defenders rarely score well against anybody (look at Armfield) so using a form-line on how other traditional defenders fare against Richmond’s upcoming opposition is a fairly faulty indicator of his future scoring prowess.

  14. Marcz

    April 8, 2010 at 11:44 am

    absolutely get riewoldt in ur team and probably malceski over silvagni as malceski breaks the lines and would score more rebound and inside 50’s which r a scoring part of supercoach, i forgot all about my supercoach team until yesterday and then found i was in 27th overall, got rid of clark and tippett and picked up the seadog and westoff and have a bit of cash for whenever my next trade

  15. melfi

    April 8, 2010 at 11:58 am

    I have concerns over the following:

    L.Ball (limited TOG and terrible disposal)
    Hall (why oh why did i pick him)
    Medhurst (soft and staying close to goal)
    Clark and Tippett for obvious reasons

    If you were to trade twice, who would you trade? For the record, I will say that I am considering Ball and and Medhurst out for McKenzie and Byrnes.

    Why? I feel clark and Tippett have upside and Hall has job security over medhurst. Or am I wasting trades?

    PS: I think Seaby is a hack, anyone wanting to trade Clark should aim for Sandi (or maybe Kruz). If Seaby clocks a 40-50 this week your plan will be in trouble if you get him.

  16. Swanny_LEG

    April 8, 2010 at 12:35 pm

    Tippett 4 O’Hailpin or Danger or someone else(ive already got balla)Im loosing sleep over this one PLz help

  17. melfi

    April 8, 2010 at 12:50 pm

    My opinion is keep Tippett.

    If you really want to let go then if you can, go up to Bob Murphy (350K), or even Shannon Byrnes (375k).

    Danger is probably other wise your best bet and you will make cash – Don’t expect him to average 90s or even 80s tho imo.

    Another possible is to go CARL PETERSON, make yourself loads of cash and pray that he continues to look as good as he has for a bit longer!

  18. Marcz

    April 8, 2010 at 12:59 pm

    id get rid of tippett im from adelaide and they r trying to keep the tendonitis problem in house but its obvious he is struggling with it and he was inconsistent last year anyway with scores ranging from 17-140. even if seaby does pull a 40-50 which i doubt he is still going to rise alot and u can upgrade to a premium later in the year off the back of the cash u made on him, seaby averaged in the 60’s for his career at west coast and he had about 50% time on the ground so he is a safe bet

  19. Mots02

    April 8, 2010 at 3:09 pm

    Thanks man – I get it. Will sub Danger (FWD/MID) with Zeibell (FWD/MID). Zeibell>Barlow and use the extra $200k to upgrade Hawkins to Brown…you little beauty!

  20. Swanny_LEG

    April 8, 2010 at 4:33 pm

    Thnx melfi

  21. up2nogood

    April 9, 2010 at 1:15 am

    Hey guys I have hille and cox.. Looking to get out cox for sandi or seaby. Look to make a lot if i get him out for seaby but not sure if its worth needing to make another trade later in the year. I should just trade for a keeper????

  22. ahilen

    April 9, 2010 at 2:02 am

    hey guys,

    My team is pretty solid, but I do have a few doubts over some players. Given it will be round 3, I am not sure of the best way to take advantage of this.

    Basically here are my doubts:
    MID – C. Masten – My rookies are almost doing better than him.
    FWD – C. Mayne, P. Medhurst, J. Ziebell, R. Gray

    My fowards are lacking a little bit more depth. I have Riewoldt, Dangerfield and pavlich but I feel J.Brown will be a great boost. So I’m thinking of possibly trading C.Masten for someone like Shuey and upgrading one my forwads to J.Brown? Any thoughts?

  23. papbomber

    April 9, 2010 at 5:41 am

    Very happy with my bench players so far.. with all 8 set to increase massively this week apart from McNamara (C’Wood) as he was just a cheap choice to get more cash.

    The two trades i made this week were:
    Clark Out, Seaby In
    Hall Out, J Brown In

    gotta love the cash flow next week 🙂

    @ up2nogood.. DEFINITELY trade in sandi and cut cox. sandi is the most dominant big man in the game and wont be outscored this season as there really isnt any competition for him at freo.. plus he can be damaging up forward.

  24. melfi

    April 9, 2010 at 9:25 am

    ahlien, I think your logic is right. I have no confidence in Masten scoring consistently. If I were you I would go to McKenzie in the mids who is 200K and scored 100 both weeks. He won’t keep that rate up but should make some good cash. Then you can get J Brown… probably for Gray who is missing another week and will lack fitness when he comes back.

  25. Fozman

    April 9, 2010 at 11:03 am

    Shame about Howlett now Monty, particularly after your non-too-subtle pat on your own back. Kudos for spotting him though.

    Lesson to be learned: never blow your own horn until the teams are named.

  26. Konan

    April 9, 2010 at 12:07 pm

    need to make one change in backline.

    should it be myers sideways to schoenmakers or down to one of silvagni/maguire/nason…

    or mitch farmer to silvagni/maguire/nason?

  27. ahilen

    April 9, 2010 at 1:12 pm

    Thanks for the tip. I wouldn’t go with McKenzie, because that is more of a sideway trade. I am thinking Shuey or Mitchell Duncan(multiple pos).

    But I am unsure whether I use my spare cash now to upgrade to j.brown now? Gray seems to be a promising player, so I am reluctant to lose him now, and would like to see his potential. However will J.Brown come back to his original value? Should I trade someone else for J.Brown?

  28. melfi

    April 9, 2010 at 2:00 pm

    Ahlien – sounds like we have different strategies! All of the forwards you mentioned could be traded, but you selected them for a reason – whilst they have all averaged 60s ish (shize), you must however have more expensive players elsewhere doing well??? Personally, I don’t like mid priced players who average between 60 and 8- coz they aren’t keepers but don’t really go up in price.

    As for J Brown, he wont return to his start price unless he starts to do shize for a bit… in which case, you probably wont want him (as much). On the other hand, fallen premiums are the way to load your team up… in a couple of weeks i expect Didak and Pavlich to be bottoming out and ripe for the upgrading, so you could hang to then… but if you want Brown… get him now.

    PS: You could consider Byrnes… who i really want.. I reckon he is gonna tear it up!

  29. narzf

    April 9, 2010 at 2:33 pm

    Well done on almost getting two predictions right Monty – although, I’m almost certain Howlett got dropped this week.

    Rockliff was always going to struggle to get a game after kicking 7 in the QAFL.

  30. koggy

    April 9, 2010 at 5:43 pm

    I hate being a nerd about this but does anybody else have an issue with the breakeven calcs??

    my understanding is that we use a players 3 game average.

    using luke ball as an example in supercoach his current value is $457,100 / 5312 (magic number) means he needs to score 86 per week to meet his price or 258 over 3 weeks. he currently has 148 over 2 weeks so his breakeven should be 110 not 127 as listed.

    Sorry monty, im not trying to be a pest just checking. 110 is achievable, 127 probably isn’t.

  31. dj_2188

    April 9, 2010 at 7:32 pm

    It will be interesting to see if this excessive rookie midfielder strategy pays off as effectively it is a trade burner and a suicide mission, i traded tippett for kruezer and wells for shuey which leaves me with a struggling midfield of Mitchell, Ball, Barlow, Martin, Bastinac, Jetta, Banfield and Shuey. Still scoring 2200 thanks to ROK, Roo and Browny but we will see if the extra investment will pay off.

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