Boys On The Bubble: Round 7

Boys On The Bubble is a weekly feature looking at players who played their second game on the weekend and thus are eligible to change in price this week if they’re picked again. The B/E number below stands for Break Even, referring to the Dream Team score that the player must make to have his price rise after his third game.

Old, Slow Starters

Alan Didak, COL FWD: $325,900, 127 BE, 69 avg
Jason Johnson, ESS CTR: $341,900, 97 BE, 90.5 avg

Didak had some fantasy wraps on him coming into the season but a long-term injury has nixed his value. Johnson burnt a lot of coaches last year with his poor early form and spotty selection issues, so it’s going to take a lot of consecutive tons or 90+s for confidence to be restored in him.

Struggle Street

Peter Street, WBD RUC: $219,700, 96 BE, 41.5 avg

Nup. No. Nada. Uh uh.

The Prodigal Son

Steve Johnson, GEE FWD: $263,900, 41 BE, 87 avg

Johnson has a bee in his bonnet after being suspended by his teammates for off-field indiscretions for the first five rounds, which has seen a jump in his production. His numbers are dodgy though, since the previous week his 97 was gathered in a 157-point win where practically every Cat player had a good fantasy day, and this week’s 79 is more like the top end of his scoring potential. Look elsewhere for value in the forwards.

Pre-Season Potential

Matt White, RIC CTR: $197,400, 60 BE, 50.5 avg
Matt Thomas, PTA CTR: $183,100, 43 BE, 53 avg

Both of these Matts were taken in the first round of last year’s pre-season draft, but they are taking a while to come on. I’ve been watching White more closely, and it’s probably a sign that he’s not such hot stuff that he hasn’t got more of a run for the Tigers given how poorly their first 22 has played this season. Thomas is probably suffering more from opportunity than anything, and given he scored 32 this week he might get dropped. Both players won’t figure in fantasy calculations this year, but are worth keeping an eye on for 2008 when they enter their crucial third year.

The Next Fiora?

Shane Birss, STK CTR: $174,100, 20 BE, 61 avg

Those who saw Aaron Fiora explode this season at the Saints and cursed themselves for missing out might also be looking at fellow two-club player Birss and wondering if the same thing will happen. However, Birss’s numbers aren’t so flash and his selection is spotty at best. Better value elsewhere.

Another Lamb To The Slaughter

Matthew Warnock, MEL BAC: $98,200, -10 BE, 45 avg

Demons backs are still getting plenty of the ball, and Warnock was looking good after his round 6 score of 61, but a 29 in round 7 means he’s only good for a bench spot… and this is the wrong week for Warnock to be on the bubble because there’s a far better prospect in his position.

The Rookie Centres

Kieren Jack, SYD CTR: $69,600, -13 BE, 35 avg
Ross Young, CAR CTR: $69,600, -34 BE, 45.5 avg

Bench fodder only. But are you really looking for bench fodder in your centres at this stage of the season? Probably not. You’d rather be jumping on some mid-tiers or upgrading to a premium at this stage, if you are looking at your centres at all.

The Rookie Forwards

Adam Campbell, FRE FWD: $82,500, -27 BE, 47.5 avg
Jarrod Harbrow, WBD FWD: $69,600, -28 BE, 42.5 avg

Campbell arguably won the Dockers the game this week against Hawthorn, so he deserves at least a look by fantasy coaches because he’s most likely won himself a spot in the team for the next little while on that performance. I bet plenty of coaches will be looking at a straight Campbell-for-Campbell swap, Matt for Adam, after Matt’s paltry 8 this week. It would be a gamble, nevertheless, since a 40 and a 55 are hardly 22 material. Harbrow may turn out to be better cash cow material in the end – I’d say it’s a 50/50 proposition about which player will be better value – and that extra $12,900 will probably come in handy so plenty of coaches will go for the Bulldog.

Bubble Boy Of The Week

Joey Jesse, I’m Not Angry Any More

Jesse W. Smith, KAN BAC: $91,600, -81 BE, 78 avg

Can’t argue with that average, price or breakeven. JWS is going to make his way into thousands of teams this week… certainly into mine to replace the injured Brendon Goddard! Those who held onto Justin Koschitzke, Nathan Bock, Xavier Clarke or Andrew Raines through their tribulations might also decide that they have topped out, and JWS is the perfect exchange.

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