Boys On The Bubble: Round 3

Boys On The Bubble will be a weekly feature looking at players who played their second game on the weekend and thus are eligible to change in price this week if they’re picked again. The B/E number below stands for Break Even, referring to the Dream Team score that the player must make to have his price rise after his third game.

The New Pluggers

Tom HAWKINS, GEE FWD: $82300, -75 B/E, 70.5 average.
Aaron EDWARDS, KAN FWD: $82300, -38 B/E, 52 average.
Matt CAMPBELL, KAN FWD: $69600, -24 B/E, 40 average.
Well, I suppose it was only Hawkins whom the Herald-Sun had a poll this week about whether he’d be better than Tony Lockett, but big things are also expected of A-Ron and The Other Matthew Campbell, No Not The One From The Telly. Hawkins looks great but Bomber Thompson did say he’d only play 10-11 games this year, and he’s ornery like that so be warned. The two Roo boys might end up earning you more money when you need it.

The New God

Travis VARCOE, GEE CTR: $82300, 10 B/E, 28 average.
Hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but I guess that’s in keeping with the number on his back. Slightly disappointing cash cow for your bench, at best, and not a good choice to trade for all you crying Andrew Browne owners. Maybe Not-Son Of God move will to Hawthorn and start starring there? One can only hope. 😀

The Replacement Demons

Simon GODFREY, MEL CTR: $218900, 5 B/E, 85.5 average.
Paul WHEATLEY, MEL BAC: $226100, 32 B/E, 75 average.
Ben HOLLAND, MEL BAC: $182600, 23 B/E, 62 average.
Nathan D. BROWN, MEL BAC: $296500, 48 B/E, 95 average.
I suppose there would have to be some flow-on effect if you take out McLean, Johnstone, Sylvia, Neitz and Robertson from the Melbourne line-up… and it has mostly meant more work for the backline. Of these four, Godfrey looks like the best value-for-money bet though they are all pricey. Endee might be considered as a sneaky trade for Joel Bowden if you’re really feeling adventurous.

Plodders’ Purple Patches

Daniel GILMORE, FRE BAC, CTR: $216000, 16 B/E, 79 average.
Michael OSBORNE, HAW BAC: $210100, 27 B/E, 71 average.
Gilmore’s history is littered with injury and Osborne only played this week as a late call-up for Chance Bateman, so neither of these are smart punts. The Freo backline has been a bit of a disappointment fantasy wise since Michael Johnson got suspended, truth be told.

The Recovering Gun

Peter BURGOYNE, PTA CTR: $265100, 45 B/E, 84 average.
Nummy nummy num! That Port midfield is looking like it’s on another good thing this season, and instead of the likes of Symes and Pearce mopping up the cheapies it’s the old firm of the Burger Brothers and the Kornes Boys who are profiting. Unfortunately it’s a little too early to be upgrading the mid-tier centres but if you have to get rid of a Travis Johnstone or a Luke Ball then you could do a lot worse.

The Over-Achieving Mid-Tiers

Adam SCHNEIDER, SYD CTR: $248500, 45 B/E, 77.5 average.
Shannon BYRNES, GEE CTR: $274500, 47 B/E, 86.5 average.
I’m not sold on either of these. Byrnes played in two games where pretty much the whole match was garbage time. Schneider is a flukey player who tends to go missing for long periods for fantasy purposes. I’d keep an eye on Byrnes when Geelong loses

The Token Ruckman

Jason LAYCOCK, ESS RUC: $193100, 56 B/E, 49.5 average.
Only listed here because he’s the only ruckman on the bubble this week. He’d need to do better than his average to break even, which is not a good sign. Avoid like the plague, or at least a severe headcold.

Bubble Boy of the Week
Tim Schmidt, SYD CTR: $98200, -48 B/E, 63.5 average.
Ooh baby. Did you know Schmidt once racked up 52 possessions in a game as a junior? All good fantasy coaches do, and they’ve got their eye on him this week. His first week wasn’t much chop but a starring 88 DT points and two goals in round 3 has him top of the hit parade. Sydney need a new goalkicking midfielder and they might have one in the Schmidthouse. It seems like once you get picked for Sydney you never get dropped again, it’s the AFL version of Hotel California. Assuming that Paul Roos names his customary unchanged line-up this week, Schmidt is going to be in a lot of top 1000 teams.