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2010 cheat sheet

Elevation with JKT: 2010 Round 1 projections v2 (2/4)

R1 projections v2 (2/4)

Hawthorn’s Jarrod Kayler-Thomson is one of many rookies vying for elevation for round 1 teams.

I am breaking this second edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they are taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.

FB: Jared Rivers, Matthew Warnock, Cameron Bruce
HB: Joel Macdonald, James Frawley, Aaron Davey
C: Jack Trengove, Brent Moloney, Jack Grimes
HF: Brad Green, Matthew Bate, Colin Sylvia
FF: Austin Wonaeamirri, Brad Miller, Ricky Petterd
Fol: Mark Jamar, James McDonald, Nathan Jones
Int: Stefan Martin, Tom Scully, Jamie Bennell, Addam Maric
In: Scully, Bennell, Wonaeamirri
Out: Liam Jurrah, Cale Morton, Colin Garland
Iffy: Scully, Bennell, Maric, Trengove
Waiting: Garland, James Strauss, Rohan Bail, Lynden Dunn
Injured: Jurrah, Morton, Paul Johnson, Jack Watts, Sam Blease, Luke Tapscott, Max Gawn, John Meesen, Daniel Bell

The switches from Morton to Scully and Jurrah to Wonaeamirri seem obvious enough, but dropping Garland from this team will raise the heckles of the small (but vocal) minority who seems to think he’s at all fantasy-relevant this year. Newsflash: he’s not. The reason I have swapped him for Bennell in this team is the lack of Franklin for the Hawks makes the Demons backline too top-heavy for what is likely to be a smaller Hawthorn attack. Garland is the odd man out among the five tall backs due to his relatively short preseason, plagued by foot troubles. Martin stays in as #2 ruck, rotating back to spell the three tall defenders.

Mystery surrounds the severity of Jurrah’s shoulder dislocation so I’m erring on the side of caution. Wona is hardly a like-for-like, though if Bailey is looking for a third marking tall, Green or Petterd could approximate that role. The other, less likely option is bringing in Dunn as a marking forward in place of Maric, though I suspect the Hawks have a good matchup for his body shape in Gibson.

So yes, I am projecting both Trengove and Scully to make their debuts in round 1. I expect Trengove to play more games and score more points. Plenty of fantasy coaches are with me on that thought, evidently. Given Melbourne’s eternally long injury list, though, who is to say that they won’t both play many more games than planned? With Connors lurking at around the same price, the choices at that bracket pull at the heartstrings.

FB: Josh Gibson, Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra
HB: Xavier Ellis, Ryan Schoenmakers, Grant Birchall
C: Beau Muston, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis
HF: Michael Osborne, Beau Dowler, Luke Hodge
FF: Garry Moss, Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli
Fol: Brent Renouf, Liam Shiels, Shaun Burgoyne
Int: Wayde Skipper, Campbell Brown, Rick Ladson, Jarrod Kayler-Thomson
In: Kayler-Thomson, Skipper, Moss
Out: Simon Taylor, Brad Sewell, Rhan Hooper
Iffy: Muston, Rioli, Burgoyne, Kayler-Thomson
Waiting: Clinton Young, Matt Suckling, Jarryd Morton, Carl Peterson
Injured: Max Bailey, Cameron Stokes, Taylor, Sewell, Brendan Whitecross, Luke Lowden,
Suspended: Lance Franklin, Chance Bateman
Retired: Trent Croad

Three rookie elevation spots for the Hawks with Croad, Bailey and Taylor all making way. Skipper must be elevated to cover for Taylor, Moss is pretty much assured so the last spot is down to either Kayler-Thomson or Peterson. Training watchers are divided on who it should be, depending on your opinion of whether the Hawks need another outside-running left-footer or a mercurial forward/on-baller. In other words, a Young type or a Rioli type. The other option is to consign Whitecross to the LTI list and promote both. Things are that bad down at Waverley… again.

I’m sorry to sound like a broken record on this. Yes, Hawthorn are going into a second consecutive season with multiple senior players carrying niggles into round 1 that have interrupted their preseason. Rioli, Burgoyne, Lewis, Ladson, Renouf, Guerra, Young, Osborne, Dowler… all have been on the injury list at some point this year already. It is a huge concern for fantasy, because the injury curse may consign the Hawks to another underperforming season and drag down its premiums again.

FB: Ashley McGrath, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Jed Adcock, Matt Maguire, Josh Drummond
C: Cheynee Stiller, Daniel Rich, Travis Johnstone
HF: Jared Brennan, Jonathan Brown, Justin Sherman
FF: James Polkinghorne, Brendan Fevola, Amon Buchanan
Fol: Mitch Clark, Simon Black, Michael Rischitelli
Int: Matthew Leuenberger, Jack Redden, Tom Collier, Tom Rockliff
In: Rockliff, Redden
Out: James Hawksley, Brent Staker
Iffy: Collier, Rockliff, Maguire, Redden
Waiting: Troy Selwood, Sam Sheldon, Albert Proud, Staker
Injured: Xavier Clarke, Callum Bartlett, Luke Power, Jamie Charman

Hawksley has not shown enough in the NAB despite early hype. Those who expected Staker to waltz into the Lions best 22 only have to have seen his NAB form – or more to the point, not seen it. Or seen him at all. Rockliff, on the other hand, has been a NAB superstar and deserves a spot on form in front of a host of candidates. I have inserted Redden but this spot could easily be taken by Proud or Sheldon.

Power’s preseason has been shrouded in mystery, with a lingering groin problem bringing up predictable rumours of osteitis pubis. There are enough younger legs with enough quality on the list that coach Voss can afford to take it easy with his old premiership teammate.

I expect Maguire to hold down CHB, not necessarily because he’s so scintillatingly good himself, but more to free up other backmen into more productive roles, similar to how Harry Taylor has become so important at Geelong and Zac Dawson at St Kilda. His presence will take the pressure off Patfull, and allow more time for the likes of McGrath, Adcock and Drummond to rebound.

West Coast
FB: Beau Waters, Darren Glass, Matt Spangher
HB: Adam Selwood, Mitchell Brown, Shannon Hurn
C: Tom Swift, Daniel Kerr, Brad Ebert
HF: Mark LeCras, Josh J. Kennedy, Sam Butler
FF: Ben McKinley, Quinten Lynch, Mark Nicoski
Fol: Dean Cox, Matt Priddis, Chris Masten
Int: Nick Naitanui, Andrew Embley, Matt Rosa, Luke Shuey
In: Shuey, Spangher
Out: Bradd Dalziell, Eric MacKenzie
Iffy: Rosa, Butler, McKinley, Shuey
Waiting: Dalziell, Brad Sheppard, Brett Jones, Ashley Hansen

Dalziell has done his dash in the preseason in the eyes of most watchers. The Eagles are the only AFL club to be picking from a full list with no injuries at the moment – interrupted preseasons to Kerr, Priddis and MacKenzie aside – so Dalziell is currently not in the best 22 for West Coast.

With three runners on the bench, I am expecting both ruckmen to deputise back and forward to provide height when KPPs are resting. This does not mean I think Naitanui will become startable as a #2 ruck. I am still of the opinion that NicNat is the ultimate nuffie pick of 2010. If you have him starting in your fantasy team, you are a nuff-nuff. Unless Cox gets injured, in which case all bets are off. ๐Ÿ˜‰

Waters played in the forward pocket in the NAB Cup but reverted back to his normal half-back role in this weekend’s NAB Challenge match, which makes one wonder what his role is going to be in the regular season. It seems like Nicoski is not a bad option to fill the hole as second small forward beside LeCras, so where is a clearly underdone Waters really needed? Given his rustiness, he may be best suited to a pinch-hitting reduced-TOG role in the manner of Stuart Dew in 2008, which by definition would be poor for fantasy. Too many question marks still hang over Waters for me to have any confidence in him as a starter. Given the depth of cheap backs this year I could certainly see him as a #8 back for your bench, if you can stomach the extra cost.



  1. toodledock

    March 8, 2010 at 8:35 pm

    Scully was named in the best in Melbs last practice game. And although they have both been meh in the preseason, I think it looks like Scully is adapting to AFL pace better.

    Skipper or Warnock for Bench backup? They are both awful but which one?

    Ive got Nicnat, even when he plays simultaniously with Cox he still scores around70

  2. bradsp

    March 8, 2010 at 8:44 pm

    Have heard rumours that Burgoyne is still pretty iffy for Rd 1 Monty. Also who do you think Sewell will push out when he returns as he is expected to come back a couple of rounds into the season and I would hate to get JKT in only to see him play two games and then not play the crucial third game so he can start making me some cash.

    What say you, hawks man?

    Rumour is also that Priddis may be a bit iffy for Rd 1 with knee problems still. Waters also went in pretty hard at the practice match at Leederville against Carlton and I would be fairly sure that the Eagles have a spot for him in the team.

    Can’t help but think that your foot is only inches away from your mouth with those comments about Nicnat (not that he is in my team currently). I think he will suprise you and provide good value for coaches this year.

    Am also banking on Rockliff having a fair amount of job security and just haven’t been able to find a spot for either Trengove or Scully with so many other good value options in the mids looking likely to get a game.

  3. Flasha

    March 8, 2010 at 11:56 pm

    Nicnat will make a better small forward than nicoski… That may be where he picks up those extra points that will make him a good buy.

  4. DS01

    March 9, 2010 at 12:10 am

    Monty, with West Coast I think you have Butler and Nicoski the wrong way around. Pretty sure Butler will play mostly of a HBF and Nicoski as a HF.

    Also you didnt mention Scott Selwood. Hes really our only small defender now Wirra has retired and I know Woosha is a big fan of his.
    Id expect to see him named in a back pocket.

    Waters played in def on Saturday, but think that was more to do with him getting a run rather than signaling any intent.
    During 2008 Waters was in the Coaches Box for most games and worked closely with Suma(Forward line coach). I think he’ll play mostly as a FP or HF this season, possibly at the expense of McKinley who has been disappointing this pre season. He may not play Round 1 tho.

    Also think Brett Jones will be in for sure. Maybe for Waters, Spangher or possibly even Shuey(tho Id like to think not).

    Also agree with above post about NicNat. He may only average around the 70รขโ‚ฌโ„ขs but will still make money. Cox is in serious trouble and will definitely spend a lot more time deep in attack this season, meaning NicNat gets much more time on the ball.

  5. m0nty

    March 9, 2010 at 12:14 am

    Your collective lack of faith in Big Cox is disturbing.

  6. DS01

    March 9, 2010 at 12:24 am

    Hehehe……theres isnt an Eagle fan who doesnt love Coxy.
    But the big guy is in trouble with his groin/stomach. If Cox struggles the Eagles struggle, if the Eagles struggle expect Cox to be mothballed by Round 15 and put in for surgery that he chose not to have the same time last season.
    Ive seen him looking very proppy walking into Subi Oval last month or so……then again the champ played most of 2008 with a broken bone in his foot and averaged 106, so maybe it’ll inspire him ๐Ÿ™‚

  7. mollyfud

    March 9, 2010 at 1:17 am

    Love the photo! hehe

  8. m0nty

    March 9, 2010 at 3:22 am

    Maybe Coxy’s stomach problems are because he’s had a gutful of fans potting him.

  9. chadwick

    March 9, 2010 at 9:28 am

    Don’t complain about injuries to Burgoyne monty, you guys traded in an injured player ๐Ÿ™‚ JKT is one to keep an eye on.

  10. bigbudyboy

    March 9, 2010 at 10:51 am

    Hey mOnty.

    As a keen follower of the hawks it pains me to say that burgoyne and rioli will not be playing round 1. Mark Evans has said as much on his two radio appearences yesterday. So you’d need to take then out of the round 1 team. Also, further bad news is that I think Jordan lewis is “iffy” as his ankle is rumoured to be giving him a bit of trouble. It’s all over the hawthorn bigfooty boards.

    In terms of fantasy, I’d say this makes shiels almost a lock. At 250k he has a heap of upside. Tackling machine and is probably best suited to take sewells role.

  11. m0nty

    March 9, 2010 at 2:47 pm

    Rioli and Lewis both trained today without any problem.

  12. bradsp

    March 9, 2010 at 2:55 pm

    Again Monty, who will Sewell push out of that team when he comes back in?

    Muston, Shiels or JKT?

  13. AFEsElite

    March 9, 2010 at 4:37 pm

    Waht do you reckon about Sylvia Monty? He’s supposedly improved over the break, or are these just rumours?

  14. Arky

    March 9, 2010 at 4:47 pm

    I’ll strongly consider JKT if he’s picked for round 1. Luke Hodge is a lock no matter how much Hawthorn suck, as he really can’t go further down from last year’s suckfest, and between Gibson and Schoenmakers Hodge shouldn’t need to play that midrange defender role this year unless stuff goes amazingly badly. Franklin I am not yet convinced will score significantly better than last year, especially taking into account the missing round 1.

    I’m not taking NN at the moment but I reckon he’s a less nuffie pick than that hack Seaby. I am currently planning on gambling on Ottens, on the basis that of all the midpricers available on any line, Ottens (if he stays fit) is one of the most likely to be a keeper in his position.

    Agreed on Waters as a bench player, keeping in mind that WCE rate Waters highly, he seems to be in form and if he’s fully fit he will get serious TOG somewhere. Dew is a bad comparison, Dew’s TOG was limited by his fitness not his role.

  15. justing

    March 9, 2010 at 9:45 pm

    Monty, I think Bartram is a good show for the Dees for Round 1, maybe at the expense of Maric. This would release Davey to a wing and push Trengove to the bench where I think Bailey would favour to start Scullgove until the heat comes out of the game.

  16. justing

    March 9, 2010 at 9:49 pm

    Also, I don’t think you have to worry about Garland for Round 1. He’s only slated to play his first match back from stress fractures this week (a half at that), so unlikely they’ll rush him back after two practice matches after being out for 1 year. More likely round 3-4.

  17. Elktek

    March 9, 2010 at 11:56 pm

    I heard Raines did well enough in the Carlton match to be factored into part of the Brissy backline?

    Not even on waiting? I’d say maybe he’ll rotate in and out with Maguire & maybe Patful based on performance AKA Vossy’s mood..

  18. gutrunner

    March 10, 2010 at 6:47 pm

    Franklin suspended??? What did I miss

  19. brodman_18

    March 10, 2010 at 9:58 pm

    What about Andrew Raines Monty?

  20. Trav0

    March 11, 2010 at 6:34 am

    franklin for 2weeks in after round 21, when the club appealed a one match ban and he ended up getting to…so missed round 22 last season and misses round 1 this year…

  21. RushBehind

    March 11, 2010 at 6:08 pm

    Raines? Didn’t you guys learn anything from last year? Deadset spud, and even if he plays will average similarly to Hunt or Kennelly who are both cheaper

  22. numberwang

    March 11, 2010 at 11:37 pm

    rioli in trouble with hawks board…been drinking late recently

  23. SimonOz

    March 19, 2010 at 6:29 am

    Monty – whats your opinion on Sam Mitchell this year – especially early rounds with the Ruck problems and the ever growing injury list…..does it drag him down a notch?

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