Once a year we put on the double-breasted suit, hold a little blue card and make like Letterman.
The first version of this feature looks a lot like this year’s second edition, funnily enough…
#10: You haven’t got Chad Cornes. Okay, so this advice last year wasn’t great, as Chad picked up about a gazillion injuries and eventually succumbed, Gulliver-in-Lilliput style, but not before making his owners suffer through some un-Chad-like scores. When fit and firing, as he appears to be now, Chad is the #1 fantasy back, capable of averaging 100+ in both AFL Dream Team and Super Coach. The only other back to consistently average more than 90 as a fantasy defender (as opposed to Johnny-come-latelies like Heath Scotland) is Joel Bowden. It is mandatory for a good AFL fantasy team to include Chadwick, a.k.a. Studley, a.k.a. The Chad. Don’t leave home without him.
#9: You’re starting a rookie ruck in your 22. For some reason, the rucks have been the subject of some of the most intense speculation in the 2009 fantasy pre-season on the various boards, such as the Bargain Ruck Theory thread on the FanFooty forums. All sorts of theories have been put forward as to why you should avoid the likes of Dean Cox, David Hille and Drew Petrie and instead plump for lesser options. Yes, it’s easy to see that Nick Naitanui is a quality player. Sure, Jesse White looks like he’ll do alright this year. Fine, have Jake Spencer in your 30. Just don’t put any of those boys in your 22. Young ruckmen take a long time to develop. Even Josh Fraser, first picked in the 1999 draft, had a debut season in 2000 that was not fantasy-22-worthy. Keep them on your bench and start Bradd Ottens or Hamish McIntosh as your #2 ruck at the very least.
#8: You’ve picked injured and/or sore players. Obviously you shouldn’t have any of the players who have already been ruled out for the first month at least, but I’m talking here about players who are probably going to represent some good value at some stage during the season, but not from round 1. These players are on the dreaded “modified program” due to very poor fitness levels from an interrupted preseason, and many of them won’t even play in round 1. This includes Mark Coughlan (who I’m still seeing in a lot of sides), Matt Maguire (ditto), Xavier Ellis, Jesse W. Smith and Hayden Ballantyne. It is not out of the realms of sanity to select someone like Ballantyne or Naitanui and take a chance on their fitness returning well before the first cash cow culling window of rounds 6 to 8, though that is a big risk – especially with those two players in particular, who would be likely to be eased in through the WAFL first.
#7: You haven’t at least addressed the cluster in your structural thinking. The adoption of the rolling zone in 2009 is going to mean some changes in fantasy scoring. While we don’t know for sure, we can guess that it is going to mean big numbers for half-backs, be they flankers who play kick to kick who will be great for Dream Team, or Luke Hodge types who will be fabulous for Super Coach as well as DT. This also means that loading up on premium key-position forwards is a far riskier proposition this year, as many of the NAB games have featured a lack of inside 50s while the ball pings between the arcs.
#6: You haven’t picked Shaun Higgins. Last year I nominated Nick Stevens in this slot, and while Paul Hasleby would have strong claims, Higgins is even better value with a stronger fitness base. Come on, he should be an absolute lock. Should give you 22 games of sterling service.
#5: You’re buying too many premium forwards. Last year I advised not getting the entire ABC engine room of Geelong’s midfield because they didn’t have much improvement left in them. Bzzzt, wrong answer! Oh well. So, take, this advice with a grain of salt: I reckon the large array of options among the mid-pricers and rookies in the forwards are too good an opportunity to pass up, particularly relative to the back and centres. Any more than two premiums in Dream Team and three in Super Coach is too many in my opinion.
#4: No rookies in your 22. Don’t play it safe! I learned this lesson the hard way. It’s not actually a “risk” to start rookies in your 22, it’s mandatory. You are selling your team short if you don’t. Picking the right rookies is vital, obviously, but the rewards are far greater than picking a bunch of third-year players priced at $150k-$200k who will deliver the same scores at best. (Note: this advice is unchanged from last year.)
#3: You’ve picked 2008’s fantasy young guns instead of thinking about 2009. I was successful with this advice last year by talking down Joel Selwood, Jake King, Ricky Petterd, Andrejs Everitt, Clinton Young, Alwyn Davey, Tim Boyle and David Rodan. All would have been bad choices, or at least disappointing compared to what you would have been hoping out of them. This year a lot of coaches are buying Bryce Gibbs, another player whose breakout year may well have been last year and whose scores could level out below premium levels, like Selwood’s did in 2008. Whether this rule also applies to Bradd Dalziell, Cyril Rioli and David Mackay is going to be interesting. Other players you shouldn’t pick up according to this rule would be Rhys Palmer, Cale Morton, Tom Lonergan, Josh Hill, Simon Buckley, Harry Taylor and Garrick Ibbotson.
#2: You haven’t aimed for the top. It’s no good having 10 players in your squad who, at best, will improve from averages of 75 last year to 80 this year. You have to pick players capable of cracking the ton every week. It’s worth spending the extra money to get Brendon Goddard rather than Jason Gram, Brett Deledio rather than Travis Cloke. Goddard and Deledio are the players who can deliver consistent 100+ games, whereas Gram and Cloke just can’t get there often enough. That sort of penny-pinching will only pinch points away from your team in the long term.
#1: You just posted your entire squad to BigFooty. 😀
John
March 22, 2009 at 4:44 pm
#1: You just posted your entire squad to BigFooty.
?????????????????????????????????????????????
m0nty
March 22, 2009 at 4:54 pm
It’s a joke, Joyce.
mEnty
March 22, 2009 at 4:56 pm
haha, good stuff. Although…I currently have 3 premium forwards..feeling okay with that though, none key position player!
Toby
March 22, 2009 at 4:57 pm
# 1 is spot on Monty!
Donkey
March 22, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Good stuff Monty.
korza
March 22, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Ah Monty, if your trying to be funny,you have a dry sense of humour.Downgrade Gibbs for K.Simpson and upgrade Mcintosh ? You have me confused….
The 30 Spartans
March 22, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Good work and thanks again m0nty!
ETOH
March 22, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Hey Monty, wheres rd1 teams V 8? thought you were going to revisit it every Thursday?
snubbs
March 22, 2009 at 5:18 pm
great stuff
Dazza
March 22, 2009 at 5:18 pm
‘#4: No rookies in your 22. Don’t play it safe! I learned this lesson the hard way. It’s not actually a “risk†to start rookies in your 22, it’s mandatory. You are selling your team short if you don’t. Picking the right rookies is vital, obviously, but the rewards are far greater than picking a bunch of third-year players priced at $150k-$200k who will deliver the same scores at best. (Note: this advice is unchanged from last year.)’
The guys that finished 1st and 5th last year may disagree with you. There is definitely merit to this strategy.
the dud
March 22, 2009 at 5:20 pm
smashing stuff.
hibbo
March 22, 2009 at 5:28 pm
Good call on the #7 rule monty…
I’ve chosen some players over others thinking the rolling zone style will suit them more. This type of thinking needs to be done be any serious dreamteamer.
On rule 5: Starting 2 premium forwards is a bit thin IMO, 3 is the magic number!
love4thegame
March 22, 2009 at 5:37 pm
i disagree with the two many premium forwards comment, i think you need more premium forwards because they are the only forwards that will truly perform . the only forwards that are cheap and will perform are skipworth, higgins, hentschel and maybe krakour but wont get much gametime IMO.with this the rest need to be premium, there you can pick up the cheap backs who will all go skyrocketing because of the way the game is changing.
John
March 22, 2009 at 5:45 pm
How come everyone is harping over Hentschel he hasnt really proven himself yet. And to say he will truly perform is absolute nonsense.
Monty can you do Emergencies in v8.0 of Team Projections?
Rod
March 22, 2009 at 5:45 pm
I was curious as to how much money people like to have in the bank at the start of the season in both DT and supercoach?
the_insid3r
March 22, 2009 at 5:53 pm
I already told m0nty this earlier this year but from personal experience last season, the “#4: No rookies in your 22” is imo the best advice for those who want a serious crack at the top 100 or indeed to see them improve significantly.
54Dogs
March 22, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Insider, Convicts and Chook Raffle may disagree with you. 1st and 5th last year with no rookies starting. Chook Raffle has finished top 100 4 of the last 5 years and never started a rookie. It’s actually more about picking the right players than any particular type of structure.
ryz
March 22, 2009 at 6:10 pm
wait, i dont get it. so these are top 10 signs your team is turd. so your team is no good if you have “#4 No rookies in your 22”, meaning we have to have rookies playing?
i can see cases for both points, but the comments have further confused me.
i also have 2 prem forwards, had 3 but upgraded my mids so hopefully wont needa touch them for a bit!
Nick
March 22, 2009 at 6:17 pm
I have four prem forwards, Lids, Chapman, N.Brown, Franklin.
I guess my side is a turd.
I also have stayed away from Gibbs and Selwood, Picked Swan, Ablett and Kornes… go the proven guns guys, they are worth the money.
I’m starting Rookies in Hill and Rich. I couldnt find a 3rd rookie in the forwards I liked so im not going to start one their.
Johnny Bee
March 22, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Monty, Great stuff again. i have to admit when i first came across this site not too long ago, i was skeptical as to it’s worth, but now i visit everyday and apart from the valuable advice it’s also highly entertaining. Keep it up Monty!!!
m0nty
March 22, 2009 at 6:24 pm
John: good suggestion, I’ll try to predict extended benches and who misses out when I do v8.
the_insid3r
March 22, 2009 at 6:28 pm
54Dogs, I’m not going to dispute that since last year’s winner had great success by not starting any rookies in his 22. I haven’t been able to achieve that but from personal experience last season, I attribute my rise up the ranking largely to this advice I got with regards to playing rookies in my 22.
I guess it does show that both sets of strategies can achieve great results but it also shows that not everyone can successfully apply such strategies to their teams.
Steve
March 22, 2009 at 6:39 pm
I took Monty’s advice last year on #4 and it paid off. Personal improvement to PF and GF’s in my leagues and lots of bragging rights!
Chad
March 22, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Haha awesome #1, 🙂
Macca
March 22, 2009 at 7:44 pm
m0nty….point #7…rolling zone
In accordance to this picking a premium ruck is an even greater risk than picking a premium running forward.
josh
March 22, 2009 at 8:15 pm
steve wat did u come last year out of interest
54Dogs
March 22, 2009 at 8:52 pm
Fair enough Insider. I normally start 1 or 2 rookies myself but it’s just illustrating that either strategy can work if you select the right players
Pete
March 22, 2009 at 9:11 pm
how long is jesse w smith out for? is it worth picking up courtney dempsey in SC until smith is right whenever that is?
John
March 22, 2009 at 9:59 pm
is fev classed as a premium?
dara
March 22, 2009 at 10:18 pm
i finished 11 with 4 rookies starting in my team.. do as you please
Brendan
March 22, 2009 at 10:27 pm
m0nty, disagree on Gibbs in point 3. The difference between him and the example players from 2008 (Selwood, King, Petterd etc.) is that Gibbs was a #1 pick. I think we need to compare him more to Deledio than those players. I’ll be hell glad if Gibbs can be anywhere near as good as Deledio was last year.
Virgil
March 22, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Shouldn’t number 1 be: “You just posted your entire squad on the FanFooty forums”?
AThomas
March 22, 2009 at 10:33 pm
m0nty u legend. but I disagree with you saying you shouldnt start more than 2 premiums in the FWDS. I have 4.
m0nty
March 22, 2009 at 10:39 pm
Virgil: no, that’s a perfectly acceptable place to post them. 😉
peppers
March 22, 2009 at 10:49 pm
#11: you have a spud like Kepler Bradley in your team
peppers
March 22, 2009 at 10:53 pm
#12: you’ve based all your selections on NAB form
peppers
March 22, 2009 at 10:56 pm
#13: you’ve picked an older player who had a bad 2008, believing they’ll get back to their 2007 form (a la brad Johnson)
ryz
March 22, 2009 at 11:20 pm
macca, pretty much why i booted cox and brought in petrie, someone who is more likely to float around back.
hopefully as teams realize they cant implement the zone well, they will stop using it, coxy might be a bit cheaper, and then ill have him 🙂
diddley
March 22, 2009 at 11:27 pm
Nick – yes, your team is a turd if you have chosen those players as your premium forwards. chapman is a walking injury, buddys performance is too risky with 190 points one week, and 10 for the next 2 weeks, just cant rely on that sort of player, and you have to be delirious if you think n. brown is gonna return to form of a couple of years ago, he is just not gonna improve.
John – if you are not aware if fev is considered a premium or not, you have got a long year of trial and error this year, maybe just a learning curve, or a practice round for next years efforts. i would give up now.
Monty – good work mate. i think you have earned yourself a beer mate. so much effort put in, and the season hasnt even started yet. with this list i have made myself certain that i have picked my right team, i have ticked all the right boxes.
Juice box
March 22, 2009 at 11:51 pm
Or/
Most of your posts end with>
PLEASE HELPPPP!!!!!!!!
SWB
March 23, 2009 at 12:01 am
Sorry Monty I’ve got to disagree on the forwards issue as well. I am starting 4 (with higgins and skipworth) and whilst I agree I may be missing out on krakouer I think the likes of butler, rianes, houlihan(down back) and geary are just as good mid-prices and more improtantly I simply can’t find any premium backs I like other than fisher,goddard and cornes.
zom
March 23, 2009 at 12:53 am
some solid dt comments swb (lol mate) lets just hope this strategy works for the regular season.
SWB
March 23, 2009 at 1:07 am
Haha shup zom. Man look at the link to last years version of this post and check out the examples given for #2 its quite funny. I bet Monty’s regretting giving out the advice of spending the extra $$ on Lucas over Robert Murphy because he’s not a real 100 player haha.
CamT
March 23, 2009 at 1:09 am
You’re right on every point here, Monty. I reckon our teams will be almost identical.
James
March 23, 2009 at 7:40 am
Hey, Monty Mackay had just 59% game timne lasty year. If this increases he could be a great buy. Still weighing up him, Swallow or Tuck?????
Heater
March 23, 2009 at 8:32 am
#14 You pick your entire side based on footy forums like this. I say use your own instinct and go for it!
Raf
March 23, 2009 at 9:48 am
If you look at the tactics that DID have success vs the rolling zone last year (notably North Melbourne in mid year), look who got the big scores.
It’s two types. Yes, the kick-to-kick guys in the back line is one, that’s obvious.
The other type is big tall guys who can run up the ground and take marks over midget midfielders and break the zone that way. Petrie and Hale had huge days for North.
Remember also that tall forwards have always done OK against Sydney’s defensive setup while the smalls around them suffer.
If everyone really does adopt a rolling zone this season, tall forwards like Pavlich and Riewoldt who run up the ground are going to score at least as well as usual and probably better. I’m still saving Riewoldt to be an early upgrade target from Skippy, though.
Simon
March 23, 2009 at 11:07 am
I say a good player is a good player.
“Form is temporary and class is permanent”. It’s been said before, but it is very true.
If tactics are holding back a player like Riewoldt, he’ll find a way to inject himself into the contest.
tom
March 23, 2009 at 11:39 am
totally agree simon, just a bit of news for everyone spoke to Nick Suban yesterday, shoulder is 100% and he is in the mix for round 1
Disco (UK)
March 23, 2009 at 1:12 pm
diddley – Sonic Animation wrote a song about you called ‘Diddley Squat’ – you have no idea.