Boys On The Bubble: Round 5, 2008

Due to popular demand, I will now include Herald-Sun Super Coach numbers as well as AFL Dream Team ones in the listings below. There are actually 29 players on the bubble this week, but I will only look at those whose breakevens are below their 2008 average. First, the players who are bubblicious in both DT and SC competitions.

One Swallow Doesn’t Make A Season

Matthew Kreuzer, CAR RUC. DT: 63,979 selections, $123,500, -32 BE, 62 avg. SC: 84,442 selections, $144,200, -41 BE, 63.5 avg
Shaun Grigg, CAR CTR. DT: 1,079 selections, $165,900, 22 BE, 51 avg. SC: 1,965 selections, $180,300, -5 BE, 56.5 avg

Everyone who has Kreuzer already is pleased. Nobody who hasn’t got Kreuzer should be wasting a trade on getting him in, IMO. Even if Trent West gets dropped this week – as the MRP should have done already for his hit on Xavier Clarke – it’s not worth burning a trade on your ruck bench this early in the campaign. Grigg is not worth considering.

What Did I Just Say

Mitch Morton, RIC FWD. DT: 2,040 selections, $259,000, 44 BE, 74.5 avg. SC: 1,991 selections, $319,200, 61 BE, 65 avg
Matt White, RIC CTR. DT: 489 selections, $180,500, 38 BE, 48.5 avg. SC: 576 selections, $243,700, 9 BE, 68.5 avg

I like Morton as a player. He impressed me when I saw him live in the pre-season against Geelong, he does nice things when he gets near the ball, but my concern is that he still doesn’t get enough of it. 70/76 when your team is murdering the opposition on a wide ground is not a good return for a HFF. White’s 58/92 on the weekend looked impressive from an SC point of view, particularly as he kicked three points and no goals. I don’t trust that form, however.

The Great White-Haired Hope

Clinton Jones, STK CTR. DT: 2,002 selections, $188,900, 35 BE, 53 avg. SC: 3,522 selections, $205,700, -3 BE, 63 avg

I was expecting reasonably large things out of Jones this year, if not big things. He was in that group with Jarryn Geary and David Armitage into whom fantasy coaches put a lot of research in the pre-season, and Geary ended up being the one to have in your squad from the start. Jones was a late in as an emergency this week, as was White above, which screams out “fringe player”.

Baby Bubble Bombers

Andrew Lovett, ESS CTR. DT: 1,674 selections, $328,400, 64 BE, 90.5 avg. SC: 2,722 selections, $408,700, 80 BE, 82 avg
Kyle Reimers, ESS FWD. DT: 3,143 selections, $154,900, -35 BE, 75.5 avg. SC: 8,543 selections, $128,800, -84 BE, 80.5 avg (Bubble Boy of the Week!)

Lovett has looked like a million dollars so far, though given the colours he’s wearing he’s only one more bursting run away from yet another three-week hamstring twang. Reimers looks more interesting to me: a kick to handball ratio of 25:7, plus five marks, two tackles and a goal each game. His lower SC price and higher scores make him even more attractive in that comp. The Bombers are hurting for talls with both Lucas and Lloyd injured, making him eve. One word of caution, however: his first two opponents were the Blues and Dogs, both of whom play expansive games. He’s got Collingwood and Port Adelaide in the next two weeks, two more teams who allow space to opposing forwards. Sydney in round 8 and Adelaide in round 10 await, however.

Eaglets To The Slaughter

Chris Masten, WCE CTR. DT: 16,104 selections, $115,500, -29 BE, 57.5 avg. SC: 10,167 selections, $134,200, -27 BE, 54 avg
Ben McKinley, WCE FWD. DT: 3,195 selections, $130,300, -34 BE, 66 avg. SC: 6,017 selections, $118,000, -116 BE, 93.5 avg
Scott Selwood, WCE BAC/CTR. DT: 44,094 selections, $83,500, -22 BE, 42.5 avg. SC: 59,806 selections, $94,200, -69 BE, 63 avg

Selwood was one of the most popular players in the whole of Dream Team before the season started, and after round 3 all of his owners would have been patting themselves on the back. Masten owners, too, would have been pleased. Even after the predictable Swans effect, it can only get better for them. McKinley is the one out of the box, however. Kicking 80% of the Eagles’ goals is no mean feat, even if they do have the worst points for in the AFL. Given how poorly many of the premium forwards have performed over the first four rounds it’s going to be very tempting to a lot of you out there to downgrade a Brad Johnson, Matthew Lloyd or Kayne Pettifer to either McKinley or Reimers, and pour the money into your suffering backline. If you decide to go that route, I would recommend Reimers in DT and McKinley in SC. The other possible scenario by which you could pick up McKinley or Reimers this week is if you have Kurt Tippett. Tippett has been used as a decoy forward at best by the Crows. He has also been called upon to pinch hit in the ruck with disastrous results for his fantasy scoring, leading to three consecutive sub-40 DT scores after his opening 51. With a breakeven of 10 he’s still going to be earning you some pocket change, but selling him will eventually earn you a nice profit. Personally, though I have Tippett, I’m saving the trade, but I wouldn’t blame you for taking the chance.

Take A Good Hard Look

Austin Wonaeamirri, MEL BAC/CTR. DT: 8,246 selections, $72,600, -62 BE, 58.5 avg. SC: 8,322 selections, $83,400, -84 BE, 67 avg

By no means is Wonaemirri turning in 22-worthy scores. However, if you are still carrying one of the multitudinous overhyped non-playing back rookies this week like Scott D. Thompson, Lachie Hansen, David Myers or Jamie McNamara, it’s a pretty safe decision to make a sideways rookie trade.

DT-only prospect

Max Rooke, GEE BAC. DT: 2,972 selections, $235,400, 58 BE, 59 avg.

No.

SC-only prospects

Paul Duffield, FRE BAC/CTR. SC: 1,318 selections, $310,300, 33 BE, 76.5 avg.
Brendon Goddard, STK BAC. SC: 6,081 selections, $483,600, 96 BE, 96.5 avg.
Robert Warnock, FRE RUC. SC: 1,464 selections, $254,800, 49 BE, 51.5 avg.

Goddard is the only one of interest here, obviously. Having been priced at an average of 80 in DT and 90 in SC, and starting with an 85/103 from limited TOG in round 3, plenty of coaches had their beady eyes on his formline. This week he turned in a 62/90, pushing his DT breakeven to 114 but leaving his SC breakeven at a gettable 96. I think he’s a decent SC pickup now but I remain to be convinced that he can push his price high in the short term, so I’d wait on him to bottom out and concentrate elsewhere in your team for now.

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