Almighty tussle: Round 8 AFL Preview
- Updated: May 15, 2009
In a new weekly feature, we look at the most interesting betting games of the round with help from Betfair.
Both teams are 3-4 and just outside the eight. Hawthorn, however, are coming off a humiliating defeat to Essendon when they were heavily favoured and Fremantle have hardly been impressive in their last three wins. This match is critical for both teams.
The Hawks have won twelve of their last sixteen against the Dockers but their recent form makes them tough to bet. The Hawks were also beaten by 38 points by the Swans in their only genuine away match. Fremantle though do not have a great record of stepping up when required.
The best bet in the match is to go the switch half-time/full-time doubles, betting both Hawthorn/Fremantle and Fremantle/Hawthorn options. These two bets should offer the value required to get involved in the match.
The Western Bulldogs defeated Melbourne by 95 and 31 last season and are coming off a 32 point win in Adelaide. They should smoke the Demons. Anything better than 1.10 is overs. The half-time/full-time double should also get up.
Geelong have won their last four against North Melbourne and their first seven this year. The Cats have kicked a minimum of 115 points in those four matches against North and should run in a big score despite Gary Ablettâ€™s absence. Spotting 46 Â½ points and siding with Geelong is the safest option though taking the 1.08 will get a return.
Adelaide have been dreadful at home this year but they have won all three on the road in 2009. Brisbane looks a team who can run hot and cold and they arenâ€™t a team you ever feel confident in laying the points with. A small bet on Adelaide with the 20 Â½ points looks the way to go.
Sydney have lost their last two to West Coast and they do not have a habit of putting on big scores against teams they should beat. The Eagles are a chance of the upset here with their dominance in the ruck so they can be tried by bettors at the plus and at anything better than 3.20.
Port have won ten of their last thirteen against Richmond and match-up well against the undersized Tigers. Port can bully bad teams and they wonâ€™t let up on Richmond. The minus is the play in this one.
Carlton have lost four of their last five this season yet are favoured in their clash with arch-rivals Collingwood, who have not lost two in a row this season. Traders can take the 10 Â½ start and can Collingwood at better than 1.93.
The undefeated St. Kilda, with a percentage of 208.0, smashed Essendon in both 2008 encounters, winning by 108 in round 22. The Saints have won five of their last seven against Essendon and look to have too much experience and skill for the underrated Essendon. Traders should look to bet both St. Kilda at the minus 36 Â½ points and also look at the unders in the total points market.
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