FanFooty Guru: DT/SC point projection system

This is something I’ve been working on for a while now, and thinking about for even longer. FanFooty Guru is a set of numbers published for each round of the AFL home & away system giving a prediction of each selected player’s Dream Team and Super Coach fantasy point scoring for the week. They are now showing up in the Fanplanner pages and will be a regular feature of our Exteam and live scoring pages in future.

Projections are a well-established part of American fantasy sports. Publishers such as Sportsline, ESPN and Yahoo have experts for all their fantasy sports who prepare huge tables full of statistics indicating past performances and crunch the numbers to produce predictions for each player each week. I’ve just touched the surface of what is possible to do with AFL statistics, but here’s what goes into the FanFooty Guru projection, in order of importance and how they are applied:

• Rolling average in all recent games
• Rolling average versus opponent
• Rolling average at the ground of this week’s game
• Rolling average at the time that this week’s game is played (day, night or twilight)

Then there are modifying factors, which change the results of the above on a percentage basis:

• Health
• Guru nudge, a subjective push of the numbers by me when I think a number doesn’t look right, or the above factors produce a weird result
• Normalisation, a squishing up or down of all of a team’s scores to take into account the average amount of total points the opponent has given up in recent matches (i.e. this solidifies things like the Sydney effect)

The formula, while it looks complicated, is still relatively simple at the moment. I will investigate more granular factors like team vs type to take into account factors like Richmond and Carlton being harsh on midfielders, or how tall forwards usually escape the Sydney effect. Also there is currently no allowance for taggers or weather.

Note: The Guru points for round 1 are based on teams which I’ve collated from the various “best 22″ threads on BigFooty club boards and elsewhere. Thus you’ll see players like Ricky Petterd and Patrick Dangerfield benched, even though they are every chance to play in R1. Of course I’ll update these when the teamsheets come out. At the moment there are no Guru points predicted for rookies and draftees either – another aspect I’ll have to work on before the start of the season.

So, what do you think the weightings of the various factors should be? Are there any other numbers you’d like to see tossed into the cauldron to produce the projection?

24 Comments

  1. Chad

    November 4, 2008 at 10:16 am

    not bad. I noticed that the price of one of my players changed too. Ediriwickrama i think it was. Will he get games?

    1727, would be happy with that as a start.

  2. Chad

    November 4, 2008 at 11:15 am

    Something else that would be handy monty would be a substitute. if you have someone “in your 22″ and you want to bench them at the moment u have to drop the 2 players then add the one you want on the ground then add the one you want on bench.

    What’s your thoughts on Lucas and Alwyn Davey monty? i am leaning to Alwyn thinking he can get more points under matthew knights than lucas.

  3. Realist

    November 4, 2008 at 11:45 am

    Great addition to the site Monty, takes a fair bit of the guess work out of wondering if your side is competitive or not. The only suggestion I would make is to add a captains button to fanplanner. Give people a better indication as to how their side pans out.

  4. XztatiK

    November 4, 2008 at 7:16 pm

    Could be handy but I think taggers need to be considered.

    What I would like to see is a record of who tagged who in each game of the season and what they scored.
    eg.
    Ling(81) tagged Thompson (64)
    Rooke(48) tagged Porplyzia(99)
    Shirley(65) tagged Ablett(104)
    Douglas(76) tagged Enright(82)

    Something like that. You seem to keep good tabs on whos tagging who in the live scoring page during games – it would be handy to keep a record of and maybe put it in your game previews as part of a ‘last time they met’ section.

  5. m0nty

    November 4, 2008 at 7:26 pm

    Chad, Ediriwickrama has to break into that tough Geelong side so I wouldn’t hold my breath. Has to get past Stokes, Byrnes and Gamble… though if you ask some Cats supporters that might not be too hard! I think he’s a mid-season pickup candidate only. I’ll get working on a substitute function. I’m down on Lucas and think Davey is probably overpriced for the ceiling you can get out of him.

    Realist, at the moment I’m assuming you pick the highest guru score as your captain so I think that should suffice.

    X, I’m not convinced that a system like that could work. I would only ever have incomplete information, particularly for previous years, so it would be misleading in some respects. Safer to just keep that to the guru nudge on an ongoing basis I think. On the preview, I do need to work on that page because there is a lot more content I can put in there.

    Phew! :D

  6. Dazza

    November 4, 2008 at 11:11 pm

    X, I did a fair bit of research on tagging a few weeks ago (took ages) and the results are pretty interesting. For example, on average, the players Ryan Crowley tag score 20.60 points less than their usual average. Another interesting one is Stanton. When he was tagged he averaged 75 but when he was allowed to run free he averaged 118.67!

  7. Chad

    November 5, 2008 at 7:24 am

    Monty, i thought Ediriwickrama was Collingwood?

  8. m0nty

    November 5, 2008 at 8:31 am

    No Chad, he just got put on Geelong’s rookie list.

  9. Chad

    November 5, 2008 at 4:04 pm

    Ah bugga, thanks for the info monty. will have to scrap him then and look for someone else :( dangerfield going to get games?

  10. m0nty

    November 5, 2008 at 4:31 pm

    Dangerfield will undoubtedly play in the NAB, and his form there will probably dictate whether he is picked for round 1. I wouldn’t count on it though.

  11. Chad

    November 5, 2008 at 5:00 pm

    So who are you looking at in your mids monty? (if you dont mind sharing at this early stage)

    At the moment im looking at kornes, scott thompson then rich, hartlett, dangerfield and Ziebell with Sidebottom and stephen hill on the bench.

  12. XztatiK

    November 5, 2008 at 5:24 pm

    Dazza, great stat on Stanton. As an owner of Stants for the entire season I thought it would be something like that. He got better at shaking the tag towards the end of the season though and from memory he didnt do too bad on Creepy Crowley late in the year.

    Chad, I’m expecting Danger to play 13-16 games this year. I think the coaching staff are keen to prove he was the right choice ahead of Ebert/Rioli and Craigy showed a tendency to stick with his youngsters even through some quiet stretches last year (Mackay, Tippett).

  13. m0nty

    November 5, 2008 at 5:42 pm

    Chad: starting four rookies in your midfield?? That’s very brave of you mate! I wouldn’t go that far. Apart from anything else, you can’t be guaranteed that four of those six will start in round 1… or that four midfield draftees will play in round 1 at all.

    For a look at a more conventional team structure, check out my post on the subject.

    As for individuals, Kornes and ST are as good as any options for premiums, though I’d much rather get one of the Geelong ABC brigade and then a mid-price improver like Hasleby or Reilly.

  14. Chad

    November 5, 2008 at 6:47 pm

    Went Kane and Scott Thompson because of a proven history of durability and chad cornes being back will help kane (few more cheapies). Yeah 4 mid field rookies is alot, but at this point i would rather put a little extra cash into the backline (hodge, s fisher, enright,cornes,milburn and birchall in the backline).

    Reilly i dont consider to improve hugely on his past scores and hasleby is obviously going to be a risk. If i am going to take a risk might as well look at a rookie. It is 4 rookies in 22, but im pretty sure Rich barring injury will get 22 if he goes to freo.

    Still very early stages, need to see where the players end up.

  15. Chad

    November 5, 2008 at 7:09 pm

    Monty, whats your thoughts on Troy Chaplin? “Future Leader” at Port, CHB and hopefully Chad Cornes might free him up? Not sure, i dont like any of the mids in the backline.

  16. m0nty

    November 5, 2008 at 7:14 pm

    No on Chaplin for DT. Very marginal for SC. Key defenders are almost never relevant for fantasy premium status.

    The interesting thing with the Port backline is if Marlon Motlop gradually replaces Peter Burgoyne as the rumblings have it.

  17. Chad

    November 5, 2008 at 8:09 pm

    Marlon will but for some reason is listed as a forward in DT. Marlon wont get enough games reliably though will he?

  18. m0nty

    November 5, 2008 at 8:20 pm

    Depends on how much confidence Choco Williams has in him, Chad.

  19. Chad

    November 6, 2008 at 8:00 am

    good point, will have to find out from the horses mouth. We did sign Peter Burgoyne for another year and possibly 2 years tho, so might not be this year for Marlon.

  20. Kenzie

    November 6, 2008 at 2:00 pm

    Burgoyne is on a 1 year performance based contract , why would they put him on that and then sign him for 2 years?

  21. elliot

    November 7, 2008 at 10:31 am

    what’s a good team score projection for SC?

  22. Chad

    November 7, 2008 at 10:49 am

    He is on a 1 year deal and if he plays x number of games, then he gets another year.

  23. m0nty

    November 7, 2008 at 10:51 am

    1900 is about average for SC, elliot. Highest is about 2050.

  24. elliot

    November 7, 2008 at 1:34 pm

    thanks monty