I’ve already launched this on the latest edition of the Coaches Box podcast yesterday, but I should let readers of the FanFooty blog know about it as well.

Each AFL player is classified by Champion Data (official stat providers to the AFL) in the 2008 AFL Prospectus according to their position, their size and their role. For instance, Brett Burton is a medium-sized general forward, which means his classification is Fwd-Med-Gen. Similarly, Sam Mitchell is a small inside midfielder, giving him the designation of Mid-Small-In, and Sam Fisher is a tall key-position defender, meaning he has the code of Def-Tall-Key.

The Breakdown - there is a Dream Team Breakdown and a Super Coach Breakdown - is a table that lists the averages of each Champion Data player type against each AFL team in 2008, along with how many players have played against that team of that designation, with links to drill down on each score from each player against each opponent. The cells in the table are colour-coded according to their ranking: the lowest team average is coloured red, the second- to fourth-lowest are light red, the second- to fourth-highest are light green and the highest is solid green.

Those who are long-time listeners of the Coaches Box know that this kind of table made its public debut on the Round 22 episode last year, when we had Statsman74 on the show. Among the numerous spreadsheet screenshots he shared with us were two labeled DT scores by player positions and types - Part 1 and DT scores by player positions and types - Part 2, which are pretty much what you see in the Breakdown. Unlike those spreadsheets, however, the Breakdown includes links to the full list of players of each position who have already played against that opponent in 2008, as well as a list of this week’s relevant players.

The Breakdown is a powerful tool for helping to pick captains and figuring out which players are worth selling due to their rollercoaster coming to an end… or not. For instance, Dean Cox traditionally has a day out against the Swans, but even he struggled in the reverse fixture earlier in the year, and no ruckman has scored over 86 against Sydney all year so it might be time to take the captain’s armband off him this week. As we said in the podcast, it’s also an indicator that this week is not the time to sell Cyril Rioli because small forwards tend to carve up the Dons. It should also prove useful for those participating in the Lethal League or Premium DT competitions who are looking to pick up new players for a week or two of service: Michael Gardiner against the Bulldogs has a great matchup, as do small Kangaroo defenders like Gavin Urquhart and Ed Lower.

Enjoy!

A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Herald-Sun Super Coach. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.

Big Dippers

I said last week that you might want to wait until round 12 to get on Andrew McLeod, but with breakevens of 105 in DT and 125 in SC, this week might not be so bad either. Scores of 57/69 this week with Angus Monfries tagging him in the game against Essendon were at least somewhat of a recovery after the two shockers in the previous fortnight. It is a worry that he gets tagged every week, but this week the Crows play the Tigers who are without their primary tagger Kane Johnson. If you think Chris Hyde will get the job on McLeod then you’ll understand why I’m hot on him this week, especially in Super Coach: Hyde’s last three targets have been Gary Ablett jnr (135/164), Brent Stanton (64/92) and Adam Goodes (96/142). Expect McLeod to blow through his breakevens as the Crows spank another minnow team in their dream 2008 draw. The only fly in the ointment is that Adelaide’s draw gets considerably harder after Richmond with pretty much every top 8 side in a row… but I only ever considered McLeod a Super Coach prospect and he still should do well in that competition despite what seems to be a weekly tag.

Also last week, I recommended waiting another week on Nick Riewoldt. His price dropped again in all competitions after a 108/138 but his breakevens are down into the 60s this week. Don’t expect huge things out of him this week because the Bulldogs haven’t given up a DT ton to a KP forward this year, but he should be solid for 80-90 at least from here on in.

Coming off an unprecedented two years of 105+ averages in Dream Team, plus lifting his Super Coach average to 112 last year, Kane Cornes was targeted by many coaches as a mid-season upgrade target. The smart thing to do was to wait for the two scores from his Sydney games to cycle through - not surprisingly, his two lowest scores for the year - and that process is almost complete. With breakevens of 123/97 and year-to-date price drops of $69,500/$166,100 the time to do that trade is probably next week, after playing a Carlton side that has been surprisingly effective at dampening the scores of opposing midfielders in 2008… albeit he’s averaging 106 in his last four against the Blues.

Adam McPhee has been very disappointing so far given his top 10 finish in the backs last year, but his role in the Adelaide game has raised some questions about a possible exhumation of his fantasy value. Far from the return of Scott Lucas further hurting his value with less space in the forward line, it has actually led to him moving further up the ground and getting more link-up work. 12 kicks, four handpasses, 12 marks and three goals straight is a highly respectable return. Having dropped $104,000/$139,800 from his starting price and with breakevens of 57/32, he makes a sneaky upgrade target with considerable risk and considerable upside.

Loop De Loop

Austin Wonaeamirri, come back! Where has that goalsneak dynamo with the fistpump action gone? I know it’s a compliment when you’re in your first 10 games and the opposition coach puts a stopper on you just because you’re so valuable to the team, as Ross Lyon did with Sean Dempster, but it destroyed Wona’s fantasy momentum if not his real game momentum. Scores of 42/37 inflated his breakeven back up to his trailing average, meaning that he’s going to need another big gamewinning performance to get this cash cow to start milking again. The only consolation is that his spot on the senior list is most likely safe since Russell Robertson’s ruptured achilles put him on the LTI list.

Cyril Rioli, too, is starting to dry up in the cash cow stakes. Breakevens in the 70s are the result of his 46/27 against the Dogs. I have a bit more faith in Junior Boy, however, because he was looking like he might have hit the rookie wall back in the Collingwood game in round 7, where only some garbage time charity from Shane Crawford saved his day from complete calamity, but he rebounded with good scores in the next two games. The other reason I’m not selling him this week is that his next opponent is the Bombers who are the worst team in defending against small forwards, with Mathew Stokes, Eddie Betts and Paul Medhurst getting 120+ DT scores against them this year already.

Briefly, other players who look to have hit their peaks and/or already be on the way down: Kieren Jack, Leigh Harding, Tim Callan, Bernie Vince, Clint Bartram, Bachar Houli, Kurt Tippett, Greg Baum.

The pickings are rather lean this week, which is bad timing given the problems with many premium players, particularly in the forwards.

Backpocalypse

Tim Houlihan, WCE BAC. DT: 4899 selections, $83,500, -58 BE, 60.5 avg. SC: 2669 selections, $94,200, -24 BE, 40.5 avg.
Beau Wilkes, WCE BAC. DT: 6337 selections, $72,600, -59 BE, 57 avg. SC: 12331 selections, $83,400, -131 BE, 90.5 avg.
Michael Wilson, PTA BAC. DT: 1624 selections, $267,700, 110 BE, 45 avg. SC: 1330 selections, $344,000, 138 BE, 34.5 avg.

Plenty of coaches are eyeing off the two Eaglets for fantasy relevance. The first instinct of many is to go for the rookie-listed player as the cash return on the downgrade is around $10,000 greater, but my feeling is that Houlihan has much more of a chance to get a decent run of games, as coach John Worsfold included his name among three players he nominated to be given opportunities in the rest of West Coast’s sorry 2008 season (the others being Brad Ebert and Chris Masten). Wilkes’ Super Coach scores make him much more tasty in that competition, nevertheless. My recommendation is that if you can swing Wilkes to be your ninth back then by all means take that extra ten Gs and run, because hopefully you’ll never be playing him. If your other bench back is someone like a Scott Selwood, Albert Proud or Scott D. Thompson, then it’s not worth the risk of getting a zero later in the season, and Houlihan is more likely not to let you down.

If you can possibly wait, Dennis Armfield is likely to hit the bubble next week, so he might be a better DT prospect. Then again, he might eventually get dicked around like Darren Pfeiffer is currently, so perhaps it’s better to go with the kids in a rebuilding side like the Weagles.

Centrageddon

Josh P. Kennedy, HAW CTR. DT: 3974 selections, $83,500, -48 BE, 55.5 avg. SC: 4671 selections, $94,200, -32 BE, 44.5 avg.
Farren Ray, WBD CTR. DT: 948 selections, $286,200, 90 BE, 62 avg. SC: 1063 selections, $337,200, 107 BE, 48 avg.

If you didn’t get on Trent Cotchin last week then you’ve missed the boat. K3 is a poor substitute. With Crawford, McGlynn and Hodge due to return soon, Kennedy’s spot is temporary, and he’ll be back at Box Hill before he earns any decent coin.

Forwardystopia

Jarryd Morton, HAW FWD. DT: 5587 selections, $83,500, -69 BE, 66 avg. SC: 6593 selections, $94,200, -84 BE, 70.5 avg.
Travis Varcoe, GEE FWD. DT: 1663 selections, $184,600, 21 BE, 58.5 avg. SC: 2300 selections, $264,100, 42 BE, 58.5 avg.
Nathan Krakouer, PTA FWD. DT: 1980 selections, $191,500, 43 BE, 50.5 avg. SC: 4215 selections, $217,500, 21 BE, 55 avg.
Adem Yze, MEL CTR/FWD. DT: 846 selections, $340,900, 119 BE, 68 avg. SC: 2406 selections, $380,200, 103 BE, 62.5 avg.
Scott Lucas, ESS FWD. DT: 2762 selections, $384,200, 236 BE, 25.5 avg. SC: 4215 selections, $534300, 271 BE, 25 avg.

A large number of coaches are in blind panic mode in the forwards: Brett Burton and Robert Murphy suspended; Jonathan Brown iffy to start with that hyperextended knee; Paul Chapman treated more gently than a newborn child by the Geelong medicos; Ryan Gamble, Ryan Davis and Shane Valenti warming the pine; and Kurt Tippett stinking up the joint something chronic. As with Kennedy above, Morton’s place in the Hawks’ 22 is under severe threat from returning stars. He has collected the ball 20+ times in his first two games but his disposal efficiency leaves a lot to be desired, something which gets a black mark next to your name under the current Hawthorn administration. Notwithstanding that, Morton obviously knows how to read the play, and any player who racks up 20 touches in his first two games can’t be dismissed out of hand. With reluctance, he earns the title of Bubble Boy of the Week.

Meanwhile, the only interest from fantasy coaches in Scott Lucas should be in how much he deflates his price for the 2009 season. As for Yze, he won’t be sighted in 2009 in anything other than civvies.