Boys On The Bubble: Round 11, 2008

The pickings are rather lean this week, which is bad timing given the problems with many premium players, particularly in the forwards.

Backpocalypse

Tim Houlihan, WCE BAC. DT: 4899 selections, $83,500, -58 BE, 60.5 avg. SC: 2669 selections, $94,200, -24 BE, 40.5 avg.
Beau Wilkes, WCE BAC. DT: 6337 selections, $72,600, -59 BE, 57 avg. SC: 12331 selections, $83,400, -131 BE, 90.5 avg.
Michael Wilson, PTA BAC. DT: 1624 selections, $267,700, 110 BE, 45 avg. SC: 1330 selections, $344,000, 138 BE, 34.5 avg.

Plenty of coaches are eyeing off the two Eaglets for fantasy relevance. The first instinct of many is to go for the rookie-listed player as the cash return on the downgrade is around $10,000 greater, but my feeling is that Houlihan has much more of a chance to get a decent run of games, as coach John Worsfold included his name among three players he nominated to be given opportunities in the rest of West Coast’s sorry 2008 season (the others being Brad Ebert and Chris Masten). Wilkes’ Super Coach scores make him much more tasty in that competition, nevertheless. My recommendation is that if you can swing Wilkes to be your ninth back then by all means take that extra ten Gs and run, because hopefully you’ll never be playing him. If your other bench back is someone like a Scott Selwood, Albert Proud or Scott D. Thompson, then it’s not worth the risk of getting a zero later in the season, and Houlihan is more likely not to let you down.

If you can possibly wait, Dennis Armfield is likely to hit the bubble next week, so he might be a better DT prospect. Then again, he might eventually get dicked around like Darren Pfeiffer is currently, so perhaps it’s better to go with the kids in a rebuilding side like the Weagles.

Centrageddon

Josh P. Kennedy, HAW CTR. DT: 3974 selections, $83,500, -48 BE, 55.5 avg. SC: 4671 selections, $94,200, -32 BE, 44.5 avg.
Farren Ray, WBD CTR. DT: 948 selections, $286,200, 90 BE, 62 avg. SC: 1063 selections, $337,200, 107 BE, 48 avg.

If you didn’t get on Trent Cotchin last week then you’ve missed the boat. K3 is a poor substitute. With Crawford, McGlynn and Hodge due to return soon, Kennedy’s spot is temporary, and he’ll be back at Box Hill before he earns any decent coin.

Forwardystopia

Jarryd Morton, HAW FWD. DT: 5587 selections, $83,500, -69 BE, 66 avg. SC: 6593 selections, $94,200, -84 BE, 70.5 avg.
Travis Varcoe, GEE FWD. DT: 1663 selections, $184,600, 21 BE, 58.5 avg. SC: 2300 selections, $264,100, 42 BE, 58.5 avg.
Nathan Krakouer, PTA FWD. DT: 1980 selections, $191,500, 43 BE, 50.5 avg. SC: 4215 selections, $217,500, 21 BE, 55 avg.
Adem Yze, MEL CTR/FWD. DT: 846 selections, $340,900, 119 BE, 68 avg. SC: 2406 selections, $380,200, 103 BE, 62.5 avg.
Scott Lucas, ESS FWD. DT: 2762 selections, $384,200, 236 BE, 25.5 avg. SC: 4215 selections, $534300, 271 BE, 25 avg.

A large number of coaches are in blind panic mode in the forwards: Brett Burton and Robert Murphy suspended; Jonathan Brown iffy to start with that hyperextended knee; Paul Chapman treated more gently than a newborn child by the Geelong medicos; Ryan Gamble, Ryan Davis and Shane Valenti warming the pine; and Kurt Tippett stinking up the joint something chronic. As with Kennedy above, Morton’s place in the Hawks’ 22 is under severe threat from returning stars. He has collected the ball 20+ times in his first two games but his disposal efficiency leaves a lot to be desired, something which gets a black mark next to your name under the current Hawthorn administration. Notwithstanding that, Morton obviously knows how to read the play, and any player who racks up 20 touches in his first two games can’t be dismissed out of hand. With reluctance, he earns the title of Bubble Boy of the Week.

Meanwhile, the only interest from fantasy coaches in Scott Lucas should be in how much he deflates his price for the 2009 season. As for Yze, he won’t be sighted in 2009 in anything other than civvies.

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