Fantasy guns like Gary Ablett jnr reminded us why they’re at premium price as NAB Cup round 1 concluded.
On Friday night, we started with a comfortable win to Carlton set up by their midfield, as many wins will be this season. As many teams are doing early this year, both sides put a lot of players behind the ball at various times during the match, and both sides put a lot of numbers through the corridor, which allowed a lot of room for half-back flankers to dominate rebound possession. One of these flankers was Nick Stevens, following the trend of Nick Dal Santo and Paul Hasleby (and, as we’ll see later, Simon Goodwin) of gun midfielders starting their preseason with a stint on defensive 50. I have to think it’s just a temporary thing with all of these players, just to give them a relatively soft entry into the 2009 season. Stevens’ role allowed Ed Lower to play his customary forward tag role, while Chris Judd had Brady Rawlings hanging off him during his scintillating first quarter, which left Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs free, with Gibbs in particular enjoying the space. His nominal opponent was Daniel Wells to start with, though he claimed on radio after the game that there weren’t any hard roles – with the result being that Gibbs made Wells look like a second-rate player as he set up Carlton’s win. I don’t think Gibbs is going to be given nearly that amount of latitude during every game in the regular season, but there’s no question that with four top 3 draft picks in that midfield, you can’t put stoppers on them all and Gibbs may well be the odd man out in a majority of opposition set ups. I’d be more confident of him in Super Coach than AFL Dream Team, personally, though his last two months of 2008 were excellent in both competitions.
Of the rookies, we saw little of Chris Yarran before his ankle injury, while Mitch Robinson and Jack Ziebell both underlined their claims for round 1 spots in both their AFL 22s and your fantasy 30. I found it interesting that Ziebell was used at full forward in the last quarter and did pretty well, with David Hale not getting a huge amount of kicks during the rest of the game. We’ll get full warning on whether Robinson plays on the Thursday, but no assurances if Ziebell is named on the extended interchange bench for the Sunday game in round 1. Meanwhile, the fact that Liam Anthony started with the orange subs vest on wasn’t a great sign for his prospects.
Elsewhere, Chris Johnson had an excellent game putting the clamps on Corey Jones, which is good and bad. His spot in the Blues 22 is far more settled now but 40 DT points including a goal is not much fantasy return for the night, especially with no Heath Scotland or Andrew Carrazzo in the team. Johnson’s role may help those two more than it does his own fantasy prospects. Down the other end, Ryan Houlihan has suddenly become a hot fantasy commodity as one of the rare discounted players – the most accurate summation coming during the television call when it was noted that he would be a very handy player in a good side, as Carlton look like being this year.
On the Kangaroos side, Lachie Hansen looked lost at centre half forward but did much better when switched with Drew Petrie at centre half back. This was a perfect illustration of why they say CHF is the hardest position on the ground to play, and CHB is the easiest: Petrie is a far better player than Hansen, and the team would probably be much better served by the superior player taking the tougher responsibility. It could be argued that you don’t necessarily need a dominant CHF in the modern game, but Hansen couldn’t even lead up on the wings and get cheap ball so it would be hard to justify his spot once Aaron Edwards returns.
In the Launceston game, there was plenty to get excited about for both sides. Jack Grimes got better as the game wore on, as evidenced by his DT to SC ratio, which was 23:9 in the first half with a fair few turnovers and 34:53 in the second half as he almost won the game in the last minute with a crucial smother on Sam Mitchell. With Ricky Petterd having little effect on the game after being crunched by Campbell Brown in a marking contest early in the game, the question has to be asked: is he the sort of player who throws his body into too many dangerous contests even though his frame can’t take it, a la Matt Maguire? Grimes finished the game looking a far more solid prospect than Petterd, though with coach Dean Bailey you never know what he is thinking. Also in the Demons backline, James Frawley backed up his track form with an excellent job on Mark Williams – for the first three quarters, at least. Importantly, he was able to mix his defensive duties, including keeping Williams statless in the first quarter, with a fair bit of rebound work, to the tune of 76/81 from 18 possessions. This is a huge departure from his previous two years, where he could barely managed low 40s in DT despite playing around 100 minutes per game. His NAB Challenge scores are going to be interesting to watch.
On the Hawks side, Travis Tuck booked himself in for round 1, no question. Of the other contenders, rookies Cameron Stokes and Garry Moss caught the eye far more than Ben McGlynn, Jarryd Morton, Josh P. Kennedy or Brendan Whitecross, while 2008 draftee Liam Shiels had a good first half after being talked up by the coach during the week as being in the mix for round 1. Allowances can be made for TOG, especially with McGlynn. With the Hawks able to promote up to two rookies from round 1 due to having no veterans, Stokes is certainly a strong contender for one of those vacant midfielder spots for round 1, while Moss would be less likely. I daresay the older hopefuls will get more of a run next week against Carlton, though, so don’t start rejigging your team just yet.
The other fantasy-relevant events for Hawk players in that game took place in either goalsquare. Mitch Thorp looked a little out of place at full back, to be honest, giving up 11 marks to Brad Miller. He confirmed in my mind that he’s firming as a strong fantasy forward bench candidate for Super Coach only, with SC scores of 40s and low 50s being the best that can be hoped for while he fills in for Trent Croad. Then again, with Scott Gumbleton and Jarrad Grant bobbing up last week, he may get squeezed out of a lot of Super Coach teams due to the competition in that area.
Up forward, it was a new Jarryd Roughead we saw, one with real AFL-level kicking boots on this time. As a Hawks fan who has followed his sometimes-wayward career in front of the big sticks, I found myself yelling at the TV screen: “Don’t use up all your luck this early, Roughie!” With Lance Franklin recovering from offseason surgery and late to return to full training, Roughead could be a sneaky pick to start the season well, particularly in the opening game against Geelong. If he can kick nearly that well during the home & away stuff, we could see two players kick the ton from the same team!
As for the Saturday night game, it was the Gary Show, wasn’t it? He’s a man on a mission… a mission from God. The forums are abuzz with fantasy coaches desperately trying to scrounge enough money to fit GAJ into their midfield. I am more confident of him delivering on the faith in Super Coach, though I suspect he will miss the odd game or three due to the heavy attention he is going to cop from taggers and enforcers, not to mention the normal wear and tear from putting his little baldy head under that many packs.
The old ABC firm of Ablett, Jimmy Bartel and Joel Corey was in full operation, this time joined by Mathew Stokes. I don’t think it’s a concern that Bartel could only manage 86 DT points from 30 possessions, as he wasn’t needed under as many packs racking up the tackles as usual. Ryan Gamble did everything asked of him playing out of the goalsquare, though he is going to struggle to get consistent games in that Cats forward line when Cameron Mooney and Steve Johnson return, with Tom Lonergan showing that he kicks goals from the 1m line as well as anyone in the comp.
Simon Hogan drew praise from his coach after the game, though Mark Thompson’s comments about “we’re going to try to give him opportunities and find ways to get him a game” smack to me of a club that is annoyed that it had to watch Brent Prismall walk away last year and is struggling to prevent Hogan from becoming another one that got away. It was notable that Hogan’s numbers were roughly equivalent to those of James Kelly for most of the game, before Hogan racked it up in fourth quarter junk time. I maintain, as per my round 1 team projection posts, that the Geelong hierarchy should have Kelly in the gun if they are serious about investing a spot in the 22 in Hogan for the sake of the future. Dan McKenna was the other good news story in terms of Cat youth, doing nothing wrong as third tall defender and proving that he could be used in case of disaster.
On the Crows side, the best fantasy sign for me was Scott Stevens being used as the swingman to go from backline to forward line, instead of usual suspect Nathan Bock. This improves Bock’s stocks as a premium back considerably, in my opinion, as it shows that Neil Craig is willing to leave Bock in defence, even when the attack is looking weaker than a BigFooty troll. And yes, the attack did look terrible, with Taylor Walker limping off early, Nick Gill doing nothing and Trent Hentschel not much better. I suppose it’s uncharitable to be too critical considering the lack of delivery, but one goal from Hentschel and one extremely junkish supergoal from Gill was not a good return. The best that can be said for Brent Reilly is that he got through the game without incident, while Ivan Maric did well against Geelong’s second-string rucks and Andy Otten was the best of a poor lot of Crow youngsters. Can we finally drop the hype over Aaron Kite, Jared Petrenko and Myke Cook? Thank you.
Last and most definitely least, we have the game at Manuka, where Paul Roos showed us once again that he has zero respect for the NAB Cup. This game was garbage time almost from the first bounce, to be brutally honest, so not a lot can be taken from it. I’ll try to squeeze some meaning.
Rhyce Shaw bolted out of the blocks with an excellent first half. Like most Swans players I am only looking at him for Super Coach, though in Rhyce’s case he carries extra baggage of having a terribly poor disposal efficiency in his time at the Magpies. Only one of his 16 possessions in this game was not efficient with just the single clanger on his stat sheet, giving me hope that the Swans game style might benefit his SC game. Perhaps the fact that he’s running through the corridor – more than he did under the wing-hugging Collingwood gameplan – means he can’t kick it out of bounds on the full so much?
Nathan Krakouer, who told the press last week that he was competing with half a dozen blokes for one spot, was given his chance to impress as a halfback rebounder, and he did pretty well. Of note was the fact that 13 of his 14 possessions were by foot, though he only managed a single mark, suggesting a game style that is more suited to Super Coach than AFL Dream Team. One of his main rivals, Marlon Motlop, did enough with his 12 disposals to leave the situation murky.
Warren Tredrea had a purple patch playing on kids, which I’m not buying. Chad Cornes spent a lot of time up forward, which I’m not worried about. Wade Thompson looked very impressive for his three goals, and looks to be just the sort of player Choco Williams loves, though one wonders how many David Rodan types you can have in one side. Jason Davenport had a lot of the pill in the last quarter but there was so little pressure that it’s hard to get any sort of fantasy read out of it. Jesse White was used both forward and back, with not much effect – poor old Roosy, he’s struggling to find viable options at either end with injuries and retirements slashing his list. Ed Barlow showed enough to suggest he’s probably going to play in round 1, though there’s no guarantees after that.
Four big games, with a lot of fantasy talent on show. Who caught your beady little eyes? Who disappointed you? Tell me in the comments… or don’t, if you’re worried about giving up your precious smokies!
Jonny Hart
February 22, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Best headline I’ve seen in ages…
james
February 22, 2009 at 7:20 pm
hey monty.. just wanted to know how you think J.Coreys move to half back flank will affect his DT output?? good or bad? or too much of unknown to lock in as premium..
I went and saw the Port vs Sydney game at manuka.. and it was shocking.. rubbish peformance by syd.. doesnt inspire confidence to put any of those fellas in your side..
JLoh
February 22, 2009 at 7:21 pm
pretty disappointed with chadwick cornes…thort he wood rip it up
ne thoughts on malceski monty? thinking that he will rip it up in the absence of kennelly rather than rhyce shaw
Ryan
February 22, 2009 at 7:29 pm
Does anyone know why Malceski and Currie did’nt play??? Ziebell should play rnd 1,handy player who can play anywhere.
Team_Lactose
February 22, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Monty you are awesome. This is all amazing stuff. Keep up the good work.
Blackbooker
February 22, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Monty, still think there’s a bit of hope for Petrenko. He was only subbed on at half time and managed 9 disposals, a couple of tackles and a couple shots at goal(although he missed both). I’m sure he will get more opportunity next week.
joff
February 22, 2009 at 7:50 pm
monty, Jared Petrenko got 33 in a half of football, that’s on track for 65 ill take that. But then again its round 1 of nab cup
m0nty
February 22, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Petrenko came on in junk time, like Davenport. I don’t rate those scores at all.
dedem
February 22, 2009 at 8:08 pm
i went to the game. Wade Thompson played well but no-ones heart was in it really. but i got a hellava lot of autographs. good thing about being 13
ShrewDext
February 22, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Where was Malceski?
chad
February 22, 2009 at 8:36 pm
I think Danny Meyer looked great in the internal trial and said to keep an eye out for him Thought he was good again today. 75k rookie, does port have a spot for him or do we have to have a LTI?
Renuo
February 22, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Thanks for the excellent post monty.
marcus
February 22, 2009 at 8:41 pm
“I don’t think it’s a concern that Bartel could only manage 86 DT points from 30 possessions, as he wasn’t needed under as many packs racking up the tackles as usual.”
And he had only about 65% game time
Hawks76
February 22, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Zeibell was surely the story of the weekend.
Looks to have a body that is ready made for AFL, wasn’t scared to throw himself at the pill.
He is clearly in North’s best 25 and only needs a little luck to play around 15 games this season.
Gump
February 22, 2009 at 9:18 pm
You say Moss is little chance? He is no chance, because he is a rookie.
kimber
February 22, 2009 at 9:26 pm
monty i wouldnt be to dissapointed in myke cook, his disposal was pretty average but to me wen he was around the pill he seemed to know how to get it, also kite was never going to be a good fantasy player and also so what that petrenko got a lot of points in junk time, thats wat nathan bock does best and i loved having him last year
MiGZ
February 22, 2009 at 9:31 pm
“poor old Roosy, he’s struggling to find viable options at either end with injuries and retirements slashing his list”
His own fault for not promoting players 3 years ago, i have no sympathy for him what so ever.
m0nty
February 22, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Gump: as I said, the Hawks can promote up to two rookies at any time due to having no veterans, so if they want to play him in round 1, they can.
Ash
February 22, 2009 at 9:45 pm
Yeah highlight of the round for me was watching ziebell and robinson IMO earning a pot in both there teams 22. Lowlight, not gettin to see malceski play!?!?!
Rodger
February 22, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Monty, get off James Kelly’s case as you’re making a fool of yourself. You clearly don’t recognise his importance to the Geelong structures.
He’s a gun.
Macca
February 22, 2009 at 10:28 pm
As usual m0nty – gr8 write up. Geelong was great and defeated Adelaide by 30 odd points. Does that compare to the shalacking Sydney got from Port. In saying that a couple Port’s young kids stood out namely Thompson and Meyer.
As for GAJ, I may rue the day I did this but I might wait and hope he has a couple of off weeks. I don’t think they’ll let him have that much space in the season proper.
Simon
February 22, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Monty – I’m not a North man by any stretch, but Wells was the one player for North that didn’t look 2nd rate.
Also, apparently North are in a heavy phase of training and it was a big reason they looked flat.
The blue baggers did look awesome though, their midfield is going to trouble a lot of teams this year.
Scuzzlebut
February 22, 2009 at 10:51 pm
I agree, Macca. The better GAJ plays in the NC, the more attention he’ll get in the H & W games. There’s no way he’ll be able to maintain that value all year. Would love to have him as captain in r1, but half a mill is just way too much. There are too many other mids about to have breakthrough years.
Brendan
February 22, 2009 at 11:10 pm
@ Joff
Are you a Collingwood or Port supporter?
… 33×2 = 66
XztatiK
February 22, 2009 at 11:47 pm
Haha I was going to let that one slide Brendan.
But nah, I thought Petrenko was fantastic once he came on.
carlos
February 23, 2009 at 12:15 am
You guys cannot be serious… James Kelly is a good player and would start at almost any other club. But he is far from integral with Geelong. Bartel, Corey, Ablett and Selwood more than have it covered in there, and as monty said, they can not afford another prismall… IMO Geelong will look to blood some youngsters such as hogan to rotate off the bench, to ensure a big future for the club
Narkee
February 23, 2009 at 12:29 am
Hi Monty,
ANother awesome post mate. Look forward to Coaches Box again this year.
As you are a Hawks supporter I want to ask you a question regarding Travis Tuck. Do you think he can hold his ost in the side this year? I rate the man highly but CLarkson hasn’t really given him much of an opportunity in the past. Kind of justified though considering the strength of the hakws midfield.
I think if Tuck gets the chance he could have a very big year. What are your thought son him.
CHeers.
Narkee
February 23, 2009 at 12:30 am
*whoops, was meant to say “hold his spot in the side this year”
m0nty
February 23, 2009 at 2:03 am
Narkee: Tuck would have been given more of a go last year if he hadn’t got hurt at a crucial point, I don’t think you can blame Clarko for that. This year with all the absentees in that midfield, plus an excellent game on the weekend from the boy, there should be no impediment to Tuck playing up to 22 solid games if he avoids further injury.
WOOFTA
February 23, 2009 at 6:56 am
Love your work Monty.No mention of S Grigg,Carlton.Could be the main beneficiary of a tagging Johnson and to my mind looms as a T Tuck like improver.
Simon
February 23, 2009 at 9:25 am
Johnson wasn’t tagging. He was playing the old role of backmen stopping his playing from having an affect on the game.
Grigg definitely looks like he will improve this year, but I still think that he may play the main role of tagger/run with player. He’ll average about 80 ppg for mine
Heater
February 23, 2009 at 9:56 am
The two players who impressed me the most was Robinson & Ziebell. Surely Ziebell will play as he looked pacy enough (thought NM looked slow) and Robinson looked very good especially the forward pressure and chasing which has to please any coach.
As for Gazza well I think I’ll have to wait before he is my side; too much cash ATM.
Chad
February 23, 2009 at 11:37 am
The problem with Robinson could well be that he gets a game round 1 (and we all jump on) and then he is the person that makes way for nick stevens to come back from suspension in round 2.
Heater
February 23, 2009 at 12:55 pm
You could be right there, Chad.
Not sure if anybody else is having the same trouble as I am but I just can’t seem to be convinced by any rookie ATM. I mean last year we had Rioli and then cheaper players like Houli but this season nothing is really jumping out… Any thoughts?
Barry
February 23, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Petrenko moved well, has the build and knows how to read the play. He actually reminds me of mcleod when he first started. he is a lock-in to start in the backlines. Cook, kite still a season away from playing. Does anyone know how bad walker’s injury is…love his kicking action
MiGZ
February 23, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Chad, there are players who will be dropped from that Carlton team before Robinson in my mind. Players like Joseph, Armfield, Anderson and Garlett. Theres only really 3 players to come back in for Carlton that being Scotland, Carrazzo and Stevens.
Goldmoss
February 23, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Robinson wont be dropped if he plays as well as he did on Friday night!
A question: Why does everyone say that Cox is a must have because he is the best scoring ruckman by plenty but everyone says Ablett and Bartel are too expensive? Surely the same logic applies.
In asking that I am not considering either at this stage. Just an observation.
prentice
February 23, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Walker also to come back for Carlton, as well as Warnock, possibly Bannister as well.
Blackbooker
February 23, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Goldmoss, The lack of other options in the rucks makes Cox more popular despite his expensive price tag.
Personally I believe he is overpriced and am considering an alternative ruck structure. It all depends on how well you can use the money saved to improve other positions.
The main advantage of Cox is that he adds a captaincy option.
Chad
February 23, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Goldmoss because there is 1 ruckman that can average 100 there are atleast 7 midfielders that can average 100 (being conservative)
brutal
February 23, 2009 at 4:42 pm
matt mguire hasnt got injured from throwing himself into packs,and have you seen matt mguire,i think he would hurt the pack
Raf
February 23, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Cox is a must in the ruck department because there’s no gun rookies, therefore you either fill up on premiums or you stick yourself with inconsistent mid-price players on the ground. No other position has that problem in DT.
Add to that, Cox is the only true premium in DT ruck this year. White is gone, Lade is slipping, McIntosh and Ottens haven’t shown themselves to have found 2007 form yet, Sandilands and Hille are improving but aren’t quite premium yet, they’re still risks.
brutal
February 23, 2009 at 4:49 pm
and get off kellys back,you have absolutely no idea whats going on at geelong so dont pretend that your smarter then the selecters.and wells didnt look second rate,he was very good.went head to head with gibbs and it was an even contest.and dont say yeah but carlton won.
Goldmoss
February 23, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Chad – yeah, 7 can average 100 but Ablett and Bartell average 111 and 113.
Along with Corey on 109 they are streets ahead of the other mids.
So one or two of them should be walk up starts on the Cox logic.
dub's$men
February 23, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Brutal.. its called journalism mate.. don’t like it, don’t read it.. i think everyone appreciates what FanFooty provides except you… so f&%k off
Superfist
February 23, 2009 at 5:43 pm
There there brutal, it’s just Monty’s opinion, no more tears. I don’t think James is going to take it to heart if Monty thinks he’s not good enough.
Oh and it’s “you are” or “you’re” not “your”. Pet peeve.
pascoe
February 23, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Hi all, great post mOnty.
Could someone please tell me which midfielders are at good price if you are choosing not to get ablett, bartel or corey. someone said that there were at least 7 others that will average 100, i would like to know who…..
thanks
MiGZ
February 23, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Pascoe, do your own bloody research ya leech!
WormBurner
February 23, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Judd, Will be fitter this year and is an Ablett type player, Always scored well carrying an injury last year so if he gets 30 possessions this year he will give Ablett a shake for top dog SC scorer
james
February 23, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Goldmoss i looked at it this way with my rucks in SUPERCOACH;
Would you rather gary ablett (as captain) and hille,
or Cox (as captain) and joel selwood?
Gary Ablett has way more scoring potential than cox, and plus it will be easyier to upgrade to cox than it will be to ablett through out the year cause price fluctuations occur for avg for the last three games three games.
Plus Ablett would of averaged more than 132 if he didnt get injured halfway before two games aswell mate hes avg would have been 140 i rekon so his price could even go up higher.
And cause ablett is captain i consider him $350,000 cause ur gettin his score twice 😛