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2011 cheat sheet

Tiger blood: 2011 Round 1 projections (1/4)

R1 projections: CA-RI-GE-SK

Richmond fans think they’ll be #winning on the opening game, but the Blues will be on some good Charlie Sheen of their own.

A reminder on the structure of these posts: they are intended as a guide to the players who are in consideration for the first game of the season for each team. Please note that the “iffy” and “waiting” lists are always four names long – thus some players are named who you would think are locks in the 21 just to fill out the numbers – and they are not listed in order of likelihood. Also, the “injured” list sometimes includes players who are not still injured, technically, but will not be considered for selection because they have not yet recovered sufficient fitness in rehab from a previous injury.

FB: Nicholas Duigan, Jeremy Laidler, Dennis Armfield
HB: Chris Yarran, Paul Bower, Jordan Russell
C: Kade Simpson, Bryce Gibbs, Heath Scotland
HF: Andrew Carrazzo, Lachie Henderson, Andrew Walker
FF: Jeff Garlett, Jarrad Waite, Eddie Betts
Fol: Robert Warnock, Chris Judd, Marc Murphy
Int: Shaun Hampson, Mitch Robinson, Aaron Joseph
Sub: Ryan Houlihan

Iffy: Duigan, Laidler, Houlihan, Murphy (knee)
Waiting: Matthew Watson. Kane Lucas, Brock McLean, Andrew Collins
Injured: Matthew Kreuzer, Luke Mitchell
Suspended: Michael Jamison, David Ellard

Houlihan, Carrazzo and McLean are all coming off interrupted preseasons, and Murphy was seen in civvies at the last NAB match with a knee problem. Either of Duigan and Laidler could be replaced by Watson for the two games that Jamison is out suspended, but after that you’d think only one guaranteed spot is available for the three of them, with the outside chance of two spots depending on matchups.

Collins is coming from as far back as Houlihan in his preseason, so I think they’ll plump for Houlihan’s flexibility in the sub spot. Joseph will be preferred over McLean and will be given the job on Foley, as against Richmond they will not need McLean’s blocking ability so much – assuming Murphy is fit.

FB: Kelvin Moore, Will Thursfield, Luke McGuane
HB: Chris Newman, David Astbury, Shaun Grigg
C: Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin, Mitch Morton
HF: Daniel Connors, Brad Miller, Robin Nahas
FF: Troy Taylor, Jack Riewoldt, Tyrone Vickery
Fol: Angus Graham, Nathan Foley, Dustin Martin
Int: Reece Conca, Bachar Houli, Shane Tuck
Sub: Matt White

Iffy: Miller, Conca, White, Graham
Waiting: Ben Griffiths, Jayden Post, Shane Edwards, Tom Derickx
Injured: Daniel Jackson, Ben Nason
Suspended: Jake King

Richmond fans are chirpier than normal this preseason, as if they have forgotten all about how chirpy they were the last two or three seasons at this point, just prior to getting the living suitcase kicked out of them on opening night. They are talking up names like Jake Batchelor and David Gourdis, like they’re farmers from Ballarat at the Royal Easter Show spruiking for the blue riband for Best Potato.

Back in the land of reality, the Tigers list is healthy at the moment so the best 22 will pretty much be on the park on the 24th. Having said that, a significant number of players will be underdone going into R1 like Griffiths, Foley, Moore, Jackson and Nason – plus the preseason hasn’t been graced with much attendance by Deledio, Newman or Riewoldt. Nevertheless, coach Hardwick will want to make a decent impression in the opening game for once, and will try to present his strongest team. For this reason, I think that Miller plays early while Griffiths recovers.

White seems to me to be a ready-made subs player: quick, workmanlike, versatile but not really best 21 material.

FB: Josh Hunt, Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie
C: James Kelly, Joel Corey, David Wojcinski
HF: Steve Johnson, Tom Hawkins, Paul Chapman
FF: Mathew Stokes, Brad Ottens, Shannon Byrnes
Fol: Mark Blake, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood
Int: Tom Lonergan, Mitchell Duncan, Taylor Hunt
Sub: Daniel Menzel

Iffy: T. Hunt, Menzel, Lonergan, Chapman (calf)
Waiting: Travis Varcoe, Trent West, Simon Hogan, Steven Motlop
Injured: Cameron Mooney, James Podsiadly, Cameron Ling, Marcus Drum

I am projecting Chappy to be the only one to recover for round 1 of the multitude of sore Cats, mainly due to Sod’s Law. Varcoe will be underdone coming off a long convalescence, and Geelong really do need to play Menzel and T. Hunt a lot this year, not to mention Hogan and Motlop.

The absence of the forward spine presents a big short-term problem for new coach Chris Scott, one which will mean Blake gets a much greater chance than he will once Moondog and the jPod return. Down back, Mackie has had a poor preseason and Milburn is being talked up as a subs specialist, though I suspect if that is true of the latter then he’d more likely start on the field and be the designated redshirt.

St Kilda
FB: Steven Baker, Zac Dawson, Sam Fisher
HB: Jason Gram, Jason Blake, James Gwilt
C: Farren Ray, Lenny Hayes, Brendon Goddard
HF: Andrew McQualter, Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna
FF: Sam Gilbert, Ryan Gamble, Stephen Milne
Fol: Ben McEvoy, Nick Dal Santo, Clinton Jones
Int: Rhys Stanley, David Armitage, Sean Dempster
Sub: Jarryn Geary

Iffy: Stanley, Dempster, Baker, Geary
Waiting: Raphael Clarke, Brett Peake, Alistair Smith, Daniel Archer
Injured: Justin Koschitzke, Jack Steven
LTI: Michael Gardiner
Suspended: Adam Schneider

This team is pretty settled. Stanley is ahead of Archer as the third tall forward cum ruck support, due to exposed form and list placement – Archer is still a rookie and may stay there despite Gardiner’s LTI status, with Robert Eddy a better option to upgrade.

At this stage I’m projecting that Baker and Dempster can start in the same side, albeit one of them (probably Baker) would be earmarked to be subbed off for Geary in this structure. That option may only last as long as Schneider’s suspension, though.

Let me know in the comments what you disagree with in these projections. How long will Duigan and Laidler last after Jamison’s return? DO you believe in Grigg off a HBF? How about the T.Hunt/Menzel combo at Geelong, are they really going to play the kids from round 1? Stanley: deadly or spudly?



  1. hilly19

    March 14, 2011 at 4:02 pm

    Isnt brad miller on rookie list?

  2. hilly19

    March 14, 2011 at 4:05 pm

    Isnt Rhys Stanley suspended for disciplinary reasons?

  3. MTTY

    March 14, 2011 at 4:08 pm

    I reckon it looks really good m0nty a few things i would have diffent are.

    Dawson out, Walsh in

    Grigg to HFF, Connors to HBF

    Hogan into the Cats line-up

  4. Tigers#30

    March 14, 2011 at 4:42 pm

    Staggered you couldn’t fit Varcoe into the Cats starting 21. Was outstanding on a wing at the weekend.

    For the tiges I would have:

    Post instead of Miller
    Edwards instead of Taylor (as much as it pains me)
    Morton and Connors swapped (not that it really matters)

  5. cotchin(L)

    March 14, 2011 at 6:05 pm

    Tyrone Vickery will start at full forward for the tigers, and Jack Reiwoldt at CHF. Ben Griffths will play instead of Brad Miller. Daniel Connars HBF switched with Shaun Grigg. I like the look of this Richmond line up, and look forward to round 1.

  6. Johnny Bee

    March 14, 2011 at 7:10 pm

    Varcoe is an absolute monty(no pun intended) either Taylor Hunt or Daniel Menzel out

  7. m0nty

    March 14, 2011 at 8:44 pm

    The club suspensions for Stanley and Dawson will both expire before the season starts.

    Varcoe has had an interrupted preseason due to surgery, as has Griffiths. Hogan is an interesting one, he could go the way of Prismall if Geelong don’t start playing the kids. I’m not sure they have room for both Duncan and Hogan, though.

  8. chadburger

    March 14, 2011 at 9:36 pm

    Murphy is fine, he was rested because he had played every Nab game previously.

  9. amartini

    March 15, 2011 at 5:20 am

    For Geelong, even with Pods and Mooney out I wouldn’t play Blake in the ruck. Lonergan and Hawkins can pinch hit if needed.

    Ottens to ruck, Mitch Brown in at FF, Blake out. (no mention of Brown in Waiting?)

    Menzel or T Hunt out for Varcoe.

    Lonergan back to Subs position when Pods and Mooney return. He can cover forward or back, and we don’t need coverage for HBF/HFF/midfield types, plenty of rotation ability to rest those types of players.

  10. dan667766

    March 17, 2011 at 3:00 pm

    No thornton for Carl? really?

  11. bunyip01

    March 17, 2011 at 10:53 pm

    I think Varcoe will play. Trent West MUST play if we are to keep him, so, poor Blakey might go.
    Scotty will take every opportunity to play our recruits and youngsters this season, even if it means a bit of pain.
    I agree with Otto at FF.
    I think Geelong may rotate a lot of players this season.

  12. JIMMEH3

    March 19, 2011 at 11:46 am

    Varcoe will play, Geelong proved last year they’re desperate to have him in the side – he played the last practice game and starred, absolutely no doubt he’ll play, as will Mooney – the real risks are the ones who haven’t played a game all preseason (Chappy & Ling plus Podsiadly who only played a half of a half game in the first round). I reckon Chappy will get up but not sure Ling and Pods will.

    I also doubt Blake will get a guernsey after playing a VFL praccy match instead of the Carlton game. Dawson Simpson established himself as the front runner after that game and I expect he’ll get the gig.

    Think the rest is about right – Duncan will play 15 games this year but Hogan still seems a bit off it – hasn’t impressed like Prismall in his chances at the top and also played the VFL practice match. A long way off round 1 selection. Will mostly play as cover for injuries this year.

  13. rubitonurs

    March 20, 2011 at 3:46 pm

    Varcoe is a certainty

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