Premium blend: 2011 discounts and premiums

Top AFL draftees always cop fantasy price premiums, while fringe and comeback players get discounts.

2011 AFL draftees Alex Fasolo and Harley Bennell chat at AFL Induction CampAs happens every year, the formula for working out which players get discounts is rather random. I had suspected that the first-round premiums would go all the way down to the end of the first round at 25, but they stopped at 17 as they did last year. The Gold Coast players have been dealt with normally, with elevated players who were picked as rookies in 2009 treated as first-round rookie choices, with the relatively small premium applied.

10% Discounts

Liam Anthony, NM CTR: $355,600/$362,900. 7 in 2010 @ 95.1/82.9. 10 in 2009 @ 96.2/95.2.

Last year’s shoulder reconstruction came after round 7 so he’s had plenty of time to recover. We’ve seen plenty of players with similar injuries suffer constant subluxation and recurrences. One only has to think of Tadhg Kennelly as a recent example. He’s at a tricky price where you would really need him to be a keeper for you, yet he hasn’t shown that he has the ability to push beyond a 100 DT average. Given that North are not going to be all that strong and it usually takes being a member of a top eight side to average 110+ as a midfielder, Anthony represents too many risk factors for me. Plenty will take the chance, though, because when he’s on he looks like a DT machine. Betting on him is also a bet that the likes of Andrew Swallow and Jack Ziebell will have gun years as well.

Ricky Petterd, ME CTR/FWD: $286,500/$367,100. 6 in 2010 @ 76.7/83.8. 18 in 2009 @ 67.3/65.3.

Another player from a bottom eight side last year who has individual potential to score well, but may be held back by team factors. The rise of Colin Sylvia has put paid to any thought of him getting significant midfield time, I reckon. Will play too deep to figure anywhere near the top 7 fantasy forwards. Is already injured, anyway!

Luke Shuey, WC CTR: $280,300/$323,300. 6 in 2010 @ 75.0/73.8.

One dose of second year blues, coming right up. May increase his scoring, but not by enough to make him interesting.

Josh Drummond, BL BAC: $273,900/$401,000. 7 in 2010 @ 73.3/91.6. 19 in 2009 @ 71.9/95.9.

So many coaches burned by him, you’d think he was using a grinder during a total fire ban like that idiot cop in Roleystone the other day. Drummond is an embodiment of the entire Lions team: held together by string and hopes. He is vital to their chances, but even with him, the team is inconsistent, and so is he. As a Supercoach specialist he has to be given some respect in that comp, but given he’s only played more than 14 games once in six seasons, how can you trust him?

Brock McLean, CA CTR: $264,100/$311,700. 6 in 2010 @ 70.2/71.2. 19 in 2009 @ 83.7/80.2.

Only of interest to fantasy coaches in that his presence would help Chris Judd. In fact, the more he plays the more coach Ratten will be tempted to keep Bryce Gibbs back and Marc Murphy forward.

David Ellard, CA CTR: $249,200/$294,100. 6 in 2010 @ 66.7/67.2.

Tagger only.

Neville Jetta, ME CTR: $249,200/$281,000. 6 in 2010 @ 66.7/64.2. 15 in 2009 @ 53.3/51.1.

Nice player, ugly price, terrible role for fantasy.

Simon White, CA BAC: $247,300/$248,200. 6 in 2010 @ 66.0/56.7.

Can he stave off Thornton, Laidler and Watson for that third tall defender role at Carlton? Not long enough to ensure job security.

Trent Dennis-Lane, SY FWD: $228,000/$303,600. 6 in 2010 @ 61.0/69.3.

I like him as a player, but dedicated small forwards with little midfield exposure are fantasy duds.

Callan Ward, WB CTR: $228,000/$274,600. 7 in 2010 @ 61.0/62.7. 19 in 2009 @ 70.4/68.2.

It has been very hard to break into the Dogs midfield in the last few years and it hasn’t helped Ward that he’s struggled with injury. The departures of Johnson and Eagleton open a few spots up but the trade-ins of Djerrkura, Sherman and Veszpremi plus the drafting of Wallis and Liberatore will still make Ward’s job security very iffy indeed.

Robert Eddy, SK CTR: $223,600/$262,000. 6 in 2010 @ 59.8/59.8. 8 in 2009 @ 58.4/52.9.

Back to the rookie list and the fantasy doghouse (not to mention the Ross Lyon doghouse).

Taylor Hunt, GE BAC: $220,500/$264,800. 7 in 2010 @ 59.0/54.4.

Geelong needs to rebuild its best 22, and this kid is as likely as any to get a long run in the seniors. His main competition seems to be Darren Milburn, who needs to play all 22 to reach the 200 club. Milburn made the Champion Data All-Australian side last year for the quality of his disposal, so it’s not as if Dasher has been in bad form. Look for pronouncements by coach Scott as to his likelihood of getting games.

Mark Seaby, SY RUC: $218,600/$273,700. 6 in 2010 @ 58.5/62.5. 5 in 2009 @ 51.6/54.2.

Shane Mumford blossomed in Seaby’s absence after the ex-Eagle broke his ankle in round 6, so it looks like it’s the same old story for Seaby. After spending most of his career in Dean Cox‘s shadow, he must be kicking himself for missing the opportunity to stamp himself as the Swans’ #1 ruck.

Clancee Pearce, FR BAC: $212,400/$219,800. 6 in 2010 @ 56.8/45.2. 8 in 2009 @ 56.1/57.4.

Depth player only, especially after the recruitment of Tendai Mzungu.

Nathan Krakouer, GC BAC: $208,800/$269,700. 7 in 2010 @ 55.9/55.4. 19 in 2009 @ 67.9/70.4.

Currently recovering from off-season groin surgery. Soft tissue is the problem with him, both in his legs and between his ears. Might get a bit lost in the all-stars Suns backline, though having the likes of Campbell Brown and maybe Karmichael Hunt providing the grunt, he might be released. Big risk in the short term, and even if he stars in the NAB, he would still be a big long-term risk.

Albert Proud, BL CTR: $206,100/$253,000. 7 in 2010 @ 55.1/52.0. 13 in 2009 @ 50.9/46.8.

Just had his contract ripped up by the Lions for repeated off-field indiscretions.

Kyle Hardingham, ES FWD: $205,600/$249,600. 6 in 2010 @ 55.0/57.0.

Another kid who is a big candidate for second year blues in a bottom four (five?) side.

Ryan Harwood, BL CTR: $205,600/$263,500. 6 in 2010 @ 55.0/60.2.

A gun inside midfielder in juniors and at AFLQ level last year, he struggled in the seniors in his six Lions games late in the season. 76 minutes per game indicates he wasn’t given much TOG, but he got to a lot of contests and didn’t get much footy. Worth watching in the NAB as a smokey.

Austin Wonaeamirri, ME FWD: $203,700/$279,200. 8 in 2010 @ 54.5/57.4.

Plays way too close to goals for fantasy purposes.

20% Discounts

Hamish Hartlett, PA CTR: $262,400/$297,800. 4 in 2010 @ 79.0/76.5. 11 in 2009 @ 65.6/61.7.

Constantly injured. I think I just heard the twang from here as I was typing. There it goes again. Is he playing Old Man Emu on it? Could be the first ever player to get LARS on his hamstrings. What I’m trying to say here, people, is that he’s just a teensy bit fragile in the leg muscle area. Otherwise, a first class player. Really, top notch. TWANG!

Bachar Houli, RI CTR: $255,100/$324,700. 5 in 2010 @ 76.8/83.4. 7 in 2009 @ 75.3/73.4.

Will we ever get to the bottom of why Matthew Knights wouldn’t play him? Was Knighta blind, or was Houli the problem? It’s not as if Houli was the only loose player at Essendon in the Knights era. After trying Tambling, Edwards, Tuck, Webberley and King across half back, maybe Houli can be the one to hold down that spot opposite Newman. He certainly hasn’t got much to beat. Might be one of those midprice players who you take a chance on, with a backup plan to trade down to a cash cow after round 2 if it doesn’t work out.

Sam Butler, WC CTR: $243,800/$298,200. 5 in 2010 @ 73.4/76.6. 16 in 2009 @ 60.1/67.8.

A role player. And I don’t mean with chainmail and a sword. Though come to think of it, maybe that’s what he needs. His hands and feet alone don’t seem to be all that damaging.

Nathan Foley, RI CTR: $235,900/$364,000. 4 in 2010 @ 71.0/93.5. 14 in 2009 @ 85.1/88.6.

Another Supercoach specialist. Personally, though I owned Foley in his breakout year of 2006, I’m not a huge fan of him at this point. The Tigers’ facilities for injury management seem to be some of the lowest quality in the league, no doubt due to their heavy debt load. Three separate injuries last year to ankle, achilles tendon and calf kept him to four games. Like Trent Cotchin, I feel Foley is suffering from being at a poorly run club with inferior support. It doesn’t help that he gets very little in the way of blocking by his teammates to allow his small frame to survive stretches of games.

Chris Knights, AD FWD: $221,900/$237,500. 5 in 2010 @ 66.8/61.0. 18 in 2009 @ 84.7/83.1.

He is in a lot of teams right now, but be warned that he’s already corked his quad this preseason and a has a history of soft tissue injuries. Prepare for Knights to be there for you in 2011 for a good time but not for a long time.

Craig Bird, SY CTR: $216,800/$250,100. 4 in 2010 @ 65.3/64.3. 15 in 2009 @ 61.5/67.4.

What little hype there is over Swans midfielders this preseason will all be about Kieren Jack.

Jarryd Morton, HW FWD/CTR: $212,000/$239,800. 5 in 2010 @ 63.8/61.6. 9 in 2009 @ 73.6/68.8.

His current foot injury doesn’t sound like much, but his lack of job security is related to his inability to pin down a position for himself. The Hawks’ lack of small forwards might provide him with a chance. Either way, he’s not tasty at this price even with a discount.

Koby Stevens, WC CTR: $205,300/$236,700. 5 in 2010 @ 61.8/60.8.

Not at this price.

Daniel Kerr, WC CTR: $196,800/$289,000. 4 in 2010 @ 59.3/74.3. 11 in 2009 @ 61.8/77.4.

Is only superior to Hartlett in injury susceptibility in that when he tears his hammy, he really tears it, and doesn’t give his owners any hope of a swift return.

Dean Polo, SK BAC: $185,200/$233,600. 4 in 2010 @ 55.8/60.0. 21 in 2009 @ 65.7/79.7.

Maybe if this was fantasy polo. Which it is not.

Jesse Crichton, FR CTR: $183,400/$236,700. 5 in 2010 @ 55.2/60.8.

More of a Supercoach player, but not prolific in either comp as yet and not attractive at those prices.

Ben Speight, NM CTR: $171,100/$161,500. 2 in 2010 @ 51.5/41.5.

Seems to have found his average. Hovering around the blackened spot on the Docklands turf where Ben Warren and Sam Wright burned their owners last season.

Ben Ross, NM CTR: $162,800/$212,200. 2 in 2010 @ 49.0/54.5. 9 in 2009 @ 67.2/50.9.

I had high hopes for Ross in his debut year. North seems to have an abundance of these flanker types, possibly a legacy of the Dean Laidley era. They all seems to have the slim-hipped body shape of a young Laidley, but lack his dedication. Apart from the more bargearse-ish Ziebell, I don’t rate any of them.

John McCarthy, CO CTR: $159,500/$171,300. 2 in 2010 @ 48.0/44.0. 1 in 2009 @ 46.0/38.0.

Appears to be behind Brent Macaffer for a spot, and the recruitment of Andrew Krakouer won’t help.

Ryan Gamble, SK FWD: $157,800/$184,900. 2 in 2010 @ 47.5/38.0. 8 in 2009 @ 59.3/52.8.

First year at a new club: tick. Perfectly suited to fill a humongous hole in his new team’s structure: tick. Competitors for that spot are green, injured or disgraced: tick. Fed by a dominant top four midfield: tick. History of consistently high scoring… hmm, well, you can’t have it all. A strong prospect for 2011.

Ed Barlow, WB CTR: $152,800/$170,300. 1 in 2010 @ 46.0/35.0. 14 in 2009 @ 64.7/63.8.

This isn’t fantasy VFL football, is it?

30% Discounts

Brodie Martin, AD CTR: $232,600/$281,000. 2 in 2010 @ 80.0/82.5. 2 in 2009 @ 71.5/69.5.

Prominent in preseason training reports, but probably still a bit overpriced. Decent chance to contend for round 1 with significant injuries to Mackay and Vince. Is probably fighting with Richard Tambling for that spot, and coach Craig has already told the papers that Bling isn’t guaranteed a spot. Though that sounds a lot to me like a gee-up.

Callum Wilson, WC FWD/BAC: $220,000/$270,200. 3 in 2010 @ 75.7/79.3. 4 in 2009 @ 52.5/51.0.

Job security is much better after the departure of Ben McKinley. Still unclear how he fits in with Quinten Lynch. Too expensive even with the disco.

Samuel Reid, SY BAC: $209,300/$238,500. 1 in 2010 @ 72.0/70.0.

Showed signs late last year. His versatility means that while he may be better suited down back, the Swans may look to use him in attack. If Craig Bolton goes down with injury again, that may be his big chance.

Patrick Veszpremi, WB FWD: $206,400/$214,600. 1 in 2010 @ 71.0/63.0. 4 in 2009 @ 46.5/44.3.

Terrible injury history, with only nine home & away games out of a possible 66. Then you look at last season and see that he was emergency seven times and played only once, and wasn’t actually injured for any other weeks as he played in the Canberra league. Sydney obviously didn’t think he was good enough. He’s now at the club of Shaun Higgins and Robert Murphy, so he’ll have plenty of mates to talk to while he’s having massages. Watch him in the NAB.

Jordan Gysberts, ME CTR: $203,500/$228,200. 3 in 2010 @ 70.0/67.0.

Jizzberts ended up being a damp squib last season. Overpriced enough to discourage most from risking any more punishment.

Brad Dick, CO FWD: $196,200/$274,200. 2 in 2010 @ 67.5/80.5. 14 in 2009 @ 61.9/66.6.

News from Collingwood training that Leon Davis is working in defence gives Dick a lift in fantasy stocks. If Krakouer plays mostly midfield, I could see Dick rising in price in the first half of the year and give you a little prick of excitement.

Michael Walters, FR FWD: $191,900/$222,500. 3 in 2010 @ 66.0/65.3. 3 in 2009 @ 51.3/50.0.

I’m big wraps on this kid, and liked what I saw first-hand in the elimination final, but he has been struggling with a bandaged knee at training. Probably overpriced for a player who stays so high in attack.

Jeremy Laidler, CA BAC: $177,300/$279,300. 1 in 2010 @ 61.0/82.0. 1 in 2009 @ 30.0/28.0.

One of a handful of tall defenders fighting for a single spot behind Bower and Jamison, as mentioned earlier. Hard to have confidence in his job security at this point.

Addam Maric, ME FWD: $174,400/$218,000. 1 in 2010 @ 60.0/56.0. 6 in 2009 @ 52.2/50.8.

Scorpion king.

Campbell Heath, SY BAC: $173,000/$175,200. 2 in 2010 @ 59.5/45.0.

Might get some games early due to senior players being injured like Tadhg and LRT, but his JS is terrible.

Stewart Crameri, ES CTR: $166,700/$256,300. 3 in 2010 @ 57.3/52.7.

Back on the rookie list for 2011.

Tyson Slattery, ES BAC: $165,700/$289,500. 1 in 2010 @ 57.0/85.0.

No.

Clayton Hinkley, FR CTR: $162,800/$186,800. 1 in 2010 @ 56.0/48.0. 8 in 2009 @ 44.4/40.6.

Not a DTer.

Marcus White, NM BAC: $161,300/$160,600. 2 in 2010 @ 55.5/33.0.

Absolutely not.

Kyle Cheney, HW BAC: $159,900/$163,500. 2 in 2010 @ 55.0/42.0. 12 in 2009 @ 62.4/65.8.

After having just dissed a couple of young defenders, I can’t really support my boy Rorschach. There are better scoring options at this price in the backs.

Andrew Krakouer, CO CTR/FWD: $139,500/$200,600.

Will be in practically everyone’s team. Only quibble at this stage is how much midfield time they will give him. Training reports tend to indicate he’s best in the guts, though he might suffer from the Dangerfield-like problem of the coach wanting him to fill a more pressing need in the team structure, especially with Davis experimenting in defence. All eyes will be on him in the NAB.

Sam Reid, WB CTR: $180,200/$146,500. 1 in 2010 @ 62.0/43.0. 4 in 2009 @ 59.5/61.8.

If it was hard for Ward to get a guernsey, it’s practically impossible for a kid like Reid who has to also struggle with type 1 diabetes and off-season shoulder surgery.

50% Discounts

Andy Otten, AD BAC: $142,400/$185,100. 22 in 2009 @ 68.6/76.0.

Hard not to see him settling into a spot in the Adelaide best 22 after the departure of Nathan Bock to Gold Coast. Will probably start slowly a year after rupturing his ACL, but he will deliver a big price rise if he stays even moderately healthy. The only question is whether it’s better to start him or stow him on the bench. It’s not much of a question, though. He looks startable.

Marcus Drum, GE BAC: $123,700/$172,700. 5 in 2009 @ 59.6/71.0.

I think Taylor Hunt is higher up the depth chart at this stage, though of course the NAB could change things.

First-round National Draft Picks

David Swallow, GC CTR: $160,500/$188,600.
Harley Bennell, GC CTR: $156,500/$183,600.
Sam Day, GC FWD: $152,500/$178,600.
Andrew Gaff, WC CTR: $148,500/$173,600.
Jared Polec, BL CTR: $144,500/$168,600.
Reece Conca, RI CTR: $140,500/$163,600.
Josh Caddy, GC CTR: $136,500/$158,600.
Dyson Heppell, ES BAC/CTR: $132,500/$153,600.
Dion Prestia, GC FWD/CTR: $128,500/$148,600.
Daniel Gorringe, GC RUC: $124,500/$143,600.
Thomas Lynch, GC FWD: $120,500/$138,600.
Lucas Cook, ME FWD: $116,500/$133,600.
Seb Tape, GC BAC: $112,500/$128,600.
Brodie Smith, AD BAC: $108,500/$123,600.
Billie Smedts, GE BAC/FWD: $104,500/$118,600.
Ben Jacobs, PA BAC/CTR: $100,500/$113,600.
Shaun Atley, NM CTR: $96,500/$108,600.

First-round Rookie Draft Picks

Daniel Harris, GC CTR: $114,400/$125,700. 10 in 2009 @ 66.5/74.0.
Joel Tippett, GC RUC/FWD: $114,400/$125,700.
Michael Coad, GC BAC: $112,400/$123,700.
Tim Houlihan, WC CTR: $112,400/$123,700. 7 in 2009 @ 82.4/71.7.
Sam Iles, GC CTR: $110,400/$121,700.
Ben Jakobi, RI FWD: $110,400/$121,700.
Roland Ah Chee, GC BAC: $108,400/$119,700.
Josh Jenkins, ES RUC: $108,400/$119,700.
Brad Harvey, BL BAC/CTR: $106,400/$117,700.
Karmichael Hunt, GC BAC: $106,400/$117,700.
Zac Smith, GC RUC: $106,400/$117,700.
Danny Stanley, GC BAC: $106,400/$117,700. 1 in 2009 @ 31.0/23.0.
Daniel Nicholson, ME BAC/CTR: $104,400/$115,700.
Timothy Milera, AD FWD: $102,400/$113,700.
Thomas Jonas, PA BAC: $100,400/$111,700.
Cameron Pederson, NM BAC: $98,400/$109,700.
Edward Curnow, CA CTR: $96,400/$107,700.
Sam Menagola, HW FWD: $94,400/$105,700.

First-round Pre-season Draft Picks

Nathan Ablett, GC FWD: $126,500/$167,200.

I won’t go through the draftees and rookies in this article… it took me all day to research as it was! Let me know in the comments which discounted players you have your eye on… plus which players you wish got a ticket to the disco but didn’t.

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