Rolling zones are here to stay in the copycat AFL, with all six sides trialing defensive clusters this week.
If this is the 2009 version of AFL, it’s going to be an interesting season, in the way of the Chinese curse. After an uncompetitive game last week, this week the scores were closer and the tactical trends were more apparent, with each team testing out the Hawthorn-authored “cluster” defensive structure and stacking their backlines with extra numbers. In the Saturday game it lasted until half time from both sides, and on Sunday night it was even more apparent. Both games featured a lot of broken play, long strings of turnovers and domination of the stat sheets by flankers at either end.
On Friday night, we saw the first signs of potential from the young key position forwards at basement prices who are going to be critical to fantasy success this year, particularly in Super Coach. Scott Gumbleton, possibly the best credentialed, managed one goal, as Jarrad Grant did with his supergoal, while Jay Neagle registered 2.2. None of the three managed to get into double figures for possessions, or reached 50 DT points. Gumby impressed me the most with his contesting, with Grant needing to work on a horrible kicking technique that netted him a total of 1.4 – a worse action than Buddy – while Neagle will not get that much ball during a regular season game. This game confirmed what I thought about each of them: Gumby and Grant are bench fodder in SC at best, with DT bench consideration only if you can’t find any other small forwards, while Neagle is only valuable if Matthew Lloyd or Scott Lucas get injured.
The biggest news out of Friday has to be the form of Hayden Skipworth, followed closely by Shaun Higgins. Skipworth didn’t touch the ball at all in the first quarter but ended up topping the DT scores for Essendon, providing a safety valve for the younger Bomber midfielders in a role behind the ball that is fantasy gold. Unfortunately his round 1 game is on the Monday so he may be stuck in an extended bench by the first lockout, but if not then he’s going to be very popular. Higgins, rotating through the midfield off a half forward flank, looked all class when he had the ball in his hands, as evidenced by his healthy SC score. The only question is how many of those midfield rotations he will keep once the Dogs add Adam Cooney and Ryan Griffen back into the 22. The two mid-priced fantasy forwards did their prospects no harm at all, and should be strongly considered for every side.
Elsewhere on Friday, there were solid hit outs for most of the premiums in the game, with Brad Johnson showing that his days of knocking up Dream Team 90s and 100s may not be over just yet. Bachar Houli underlined his credentials as a Super Coach specialist in the backline. Daniel Cross did his usual trick of looking ordinary for three quarters and then firing up for the last. Courtenay Dempsey teased us like he always does, though he has more twangs than a Lee Kernaghan album. Tom Bellchambers reminded us that he’s really not much of a backup to David Hille by allowing Will Minson, of all people, to nearly win the game in the last quarter while Hille was resting – proving to me that Hille justly deserves status as the #2 Dream Team ruck (although probably not Super Coach due to Drew Petrie). On the other hand, Adam McPhee called into question his fantasy relevance with a switch-hitting role that meant he never settled at either end. Not even kicking the winning point could rescue his Super Coach score.
On the Gold Coast on Saturday night, both half back lines reigned supreme in the first half with zones in full force. People keep on blaming the Hawks for modern football becoming ugly, but to my eyes it’s the Saints who have been involved in all of the ugliest games in the last couple of years, and this was another one. St Kilda went into the game without Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke and so had predictable problems finding a route to goal, with Steven Milne losing his mojo with no one to feed off. Sam Gilbert, of course, and he didn’t let us down with an eye-catching first quarter. Though his TOG was restricted after that, his in-and-under work was of enough quality to let us all know that he’s worth starting from Round 1 this year, particularly in Super Coach.
Plenty of coaches also would have been tuning in to see the leaner, fitter Brendon Goddard with a view to him contending for leading fantasy back this year as he is rotated through the midfield. His fans were delighted to see that he and Nick Dal Santo had essentially switched roles, with NDS loitering around defensive 50 and BJ trying to push forward from the centre line to deliver the ball inside 50. The good news for BJ buyers is that if this switch continues into the regular season you can expect more goals like the two Goddard kicked this week and a lot of pointscoring potential. The bad news is that he will probably get a lot more tagging attention than he did in 2008. The more likely scenario is that coach Ross Lyon is trying to get both players able to play each others’ roles so that they can switch mid-game when one or the other isn’t doing so well – specifically, when Dal Santo is struggling with a hard tag, as he so often does. Whether BJ will be any better at handling such pressure remains to be seen.
The Lions were leading comfortably at half time, which allowed coach Michael Voss to experiment with his own version of Buddy’s Box. Unfortunately for him he didn’t have anything like the cattle to make such an outlandish structure succeed, with Mitch Clark and Aaron Cornelius being his primary forwards, and Voss’ persistence with the four pillar strategy was one of the main reasons that the Saints got back into the game, with zero defensive pressure being applied out of their backline. Such a structure might work better with Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw as the other two pillars, though I doubt we’ll see much of it during the home & away season.
The other major talking point out of the game on the Gold Coast was Jared Brennan carrying the ruck almost on his own. With Jamie Charman struggling to get fit for the regular season and Matthew Leuenberger not ready to shoulder the load of a #1 ruck just yet, the Lions might have to face disastrous hit out numbers like the 61-12 ratio they suffered under on Saturday night against the experienced duo of Steven King (30 hit outs) and Michael Gardiner (23). Brennan shapes up as a serious contender for a premium forward spot in your team, and while it’s nice to see him involved in midfield play so much, at a height of 192cm he couldn’t keep this sort of physical load up indefinitely.
On Sunday night, in between enjoying myself in the FanFooty chat – those Sunday games always seem to have the best banter – we got to see with our own eyes why Fremantle chose Stephen Hill with pick #3 in the 2008 AFL draft. The kid doesn’t tip the scales at over 70kg yet, but that didn’t stop him throwing himself under packs late in the game, and breaking free for a supergoal late in the game that got everyone shouting their manlove at screens across Australia. The media hype tsunami is likely to carry Hill into the round 1 Docker line up, so I think you had better look at your structure to see if you can afford him as your #7 or #8 back if you hadn’t already penciled him in. The boy is the real deal, no question.
Freo also had some other kids on show, notably fantasy-relevant rookies Greg Broughton, Clancee Pearce and Matt DeBoer. Broughton came out of the game with the best prospects of an early call-up, even though it was his man Jack Riewoldt who was doing a lot of the damage during the middle stages of the game. Pearce did a good job on the Richmond rookie Robin Nahas, while DeBoer did some nice things in his limited TOG… and with a good South African name like that, he has to succeed in Perth!
As this year’s Nick Stevens, most eyes were on Paul Hasleby in this game. Like Higgins on Friday, he didn’t necessarily rack up the touches. The quality of his possessions was most evident, with a fair few inside 50s ending with the ball hitting the breast of an onrushing forward. Crucially, he was very industrious when moved off the half back flank at three quarter time to spend the last quarter in the guts, scoring 27 Dream Team points and a whopping 50 in Super Coach. I wouldn’t go so far as to say Hase will be a SC specialist this year, though his status as a potential “lock” in that competition is probably safer than in Dream Team.
As a right-thinking fantasy coach, I would have loved to have seen Brett Peake have a shocker and get dropped. Come on, we all think that, don’t we? By three quarter time he had spudded it up to the tune of 27 DT points. Huzzah, said I! Unfortunately, he got into the game in the last quarter for 28 more points, annoying me greatly and possibly saving his skin for round 1. My sincere hope is that he is replaced in the Fremantle 22 sooner rather than later, preferably by one of the aforementioned kids. We didn’t even see Hayden Ballantyne or Nick Suban yet!
Speaking of half back flankers, I have to admit Andrew Raines was very impressive. I had previously thought that he would suffer in a positional battle with Jordan McMahon, but on this evidence his pace and disposal can’t be ignored. Instead of McMahon, I think the player in the gun for the spot in the Richmond best 22 is Jay Schulz, who looked terrible and was subbed off during the game. Quite where this leaves Jake King I don’t know, because with Chris Newman as captain and Joel Bowden still spending a fair bit of time in the backline, the Tigers can’t play five small-to-medium defenders. Or can they? With the zones in full force it seem half the team turns into half back flankers, as coaches try to own the corridor by pumping in huge numbers. Throw in Shane Edwards and Richard Tambling and it’s a party on the Richmond half back line. The big question is whether Richmond can win games of football against good teams playing that way. They have shown that they can contend with Hawthorn, so if everyone starts copying Hawthorn, doesn’t that play into their hands? It’s going to be fun to watch.
And then there’s Matthew Richardson. How could we ever doubt you, Richo? Like Paul Chapman, most are shying away from Richo due to his history of soft tissue injuries and advancing age. Like Chappy, Richo is looking like a spring chicken in summer. Come the depths of a Melbourne winter, however, and the story may well be different. Hmm, or maybe global warming will deliver another mild winter and respite for weary muscles? Ah, the life of a fantasy coach, where the ozone layer over the Antarctic is a valid topic of discussion for the footy tragic.
I’m sure there are other players who you were watching over the weekend, so let me know your opinions on them in the comments. Geez it’s great to have footy back again! ;D
Other Dan
February 16, 2009 at 7:12 am
Wow, super write-up Monty.
Very interested in Stephen Hill, who I’d overlooked until now.
And Hasleby and Goddard are confirming their lock status IMO.
Hank
February 16, 2009 at 7:51 am
Monty,
Where can you find SC results for the NAB cup games??
The AFL website only appear to be providing the top 5. I hope they dont continue this into regular season.
Chad
February 16, 2009 at 8:48 am
I think i will look at Hill V Haselby for the mid. Went to the Port trial and wasn’t too much to write home about. Davenport was VERY VERY VERY much an outside player, Danny Meyer looked very good IMHO and could be a great downgrade target mid year if he can work his way into the side (either injury or form).
Juls
February 16, 2009 at 9:51 am
Hi monty, What about D. Rich?
m0nty
February 16, 2009 at 10:54 am
Hank, the links are all on the front page, where it says “Fantasy scores”.
Juls, I talked about Rich in the article.
Poos
February 16, 2009 at 11:04 am
If Knights picks players on form then I think skippy will play. Knights was full of praise for him after the game as well and It looks to me the players enjoy having him in the team.
I didn’t have Hill but now will have a look but for me his price tag warrants him to be on the ground.
As for Rich he showed glimpses of his talent but I think he limited TOG.
john24
February 16, 2009 at 11:15 am
Monty,
Peake is a Spud and always will be!! How he is even in the AFL is beyond me. (And im a freo fan).
Im LOADING my backline with my #7 & #8 being Raines and Hill. What are your thoughts on this?
Also, looking forward to seeing Davenport next weekend!
And lastly… i didnt have Richo before last night, but after seeing him in the flesh against freo, hes IN!
Chad
February 16, 2009 at 11:58 am
Agree Poos, Hill at 140k is a little too much to have on the pine, so he has to be a 22 player if you’re looking at him.
John24, Davenport wasn’t too bad in the port trial, had a fair bit of it playing very much outside. Will he get into the powers 22 though?
Simon
February 16, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Unless some defensive rookies start putting their hand up in the next month, I would have thought it would be too risky not to have a Hill or similar on the bench.
john24
February 16, 2009 at 12:15 pm
I think we will find out next week if he can crack the Port 22… hopefully yes.
Agree with you on the Defensive Rookies Simon.
Rupe
February 16, 2009 at 12:32 pm
I take back everything I said about Stephen Hill being a shitty pick. He looked McLeod-like! So smooth with the ball. All class! Good to see he can tackle too. IN!
Brendan
February 16, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Now Freo just has to trade him to the Crows like McLeod.
ShrewDext
February 16, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Chad,
Did Hartlett play in the Port Intra club match?
If so how did he go and do you think he will get a run early in the H & A’s?
Heater
February 16, 2009 at 2:07 pm
All I can say is that this gives me a heap more to think about!
Not so sure about Rich now; get the feeling that with a full squad Voss will play him in patches….?
Hill looks like a lock now. Harvey got critised for not playing high draft picks 1st rd last year so I reckon Hill will play and play most of the year or at least until he gets sore, etc.
Rupe
February 16, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Aahahahahahaha Brendan, classic! Do the Crows have any Chris Groom’s at the club right now?
ShrewDext, Harts didn’t play.
Simon
February 16, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Rupe,
James Sellar is a gun. Just what Freo need.
Butane
February 16, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Just quietly Minson murdered the majority of opponents in the ruck in the last quarter of matches last year. Was the reason we got over the line on more then a couple of occasions. Helps that he gets to rest forward for long stints before blasting out in the in the last.
gothepower
February 16, 2009 at 3:35 pm
I’m not Chad but I am a Port supporter, and I’d be very surprised if Hartlett played from Rnd 1. A) He’s recovering from shoulder surgery B) Trav Boak didn’t play until about halfway through the year when we first picked him up and our midfield at that time was probably weaker than it is now. Harts will find it hard to break into a midfield with the Cornes’s, the Burgoynes, Cassisi, Salopek, Boak, Pearce, Rodan and Carr all ahead of him, and possibly other relatively new faces who have a few years on him like Davenport or Stewart as well. I also think Robbie Gray is a big chance to move into the middle at some point in his career and it could be this year.
dylan
February 16, 2009 at 4:03 pm
i dont think skip played at all in the first quarter. after seeing his score i want to get him into my side but i will wait another match to see how he goes in that.
how long is Ballantyne out for?
I did not see the game but im not so sure on Hase now,he got 16 touches and only 54 dt points. did he get much game time or just a bit rusty atm? Rains got 27 touches and only 73 dt points which is not a good sign. his going to have to get a lot of the ball just to get scores in his 70’s..
very impressed with how Jack Riewoldt did.
i would have liked to have seen freo win so we could see a few more of their players. will there be any dt scores of the loses in the nab matches playing each other?
anyway goodwork monty,keep it up
Poos
February 16, 2009 at 4:18 pm
With Raines just remember in Nab Cup marks aren’t payed if the kick is backwards or under 20. Theses new rules effect the scores of backs the most.
XztatiK
February 16, 2009 at 5:21 pm
That’s a good point Poos, might explain Goddard’s low tally as well.
“I also think Robbie Gray is a big chance to move into the middle at some point in his career and it could be this year.”
Now I wouldn’t say Gray has a SMALL engine, but it’s definitely not a big engine. It’s more like no engine at all. Robbie Gray is a bicycle.
Chad
February 16, 2009 at 5:26 pm
ShrewDext: no, Hartlett, Trengove and Shaun Burgoyne.
Gray, I’m not so sure he is in the 22 IMHO.
Tj
February 16, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Chappy is only 27. 7 years younger than Richo.
steve
February 16, 2009 at 7:48 pm
hey there is anyone opting for MONTY’S premium back selection for SC this season ??
pascoe
February 16, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Hill is a certainty for me now, even though i already had him….poos again on your backwards kicking, raines would have had 100 if they were paid marks for backward kicks and so would have newman. riewoldt is a good contender for my team and will have to check him out next week.
Someone said about DT scores for the losers of the NAB cup who play?? that would be an excellent idea as i want to see freo show off their young talent again.
Disco (UK)
February 16, 2009 at 9:08 pm
What? “BJ”? Or do you mean BG?
CamT
February 16, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Steve, I’m going for an all Premium backline with Hill as a reserve. The scars from 2007 will take a lot of healing.
Dicko
February 16, 2009 at 9:34 pm
I’m going for the premium backs plan, having got burnt by premium forwards last year. No if I could only settle on which backs?
Poos
February 16, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Personally I don’t like the all premium back structure. Imo it leaves your back line “unflexable” and I believe promotes sideways trading (something I became quite practiced in last year sadly) to a extent if one is under preforming.
steve
February 17, 2009 at 5:44 am
DICKO ,CAM.T , IMO this structure seems vulnerable as far as being able to post big scores. having better quality mids and forwards would surely give better scoring options. what is the bonus of this PREMIUM BACK structure ?? can you guys give me your thoughts thanks
Heater
February 17, 2009 at 10:29 am
Steve,
For what its worth I reckon any SC or DT side should be balanced with 2-3 premiums in each position (only 1 in the ruck though). I can see the reasoning behind a strong backline but for me you need that balance where if your backs don’t perform for a week or there are injuries you can still get sufficient points from the rest of your squad.
Simon
February 17, 2009 at 10:51 am
The premium back structure is an over reaction to the raft of injuries and suspensions that occurred last year. I believe there are a lot of mid to low priced back options opening up this year that can be taken advantage of.
It really comes down to your opinion to where the “value” players are. If you don’t see much value in the backs, then you might want to chose more premiums in that position. I think everyone has noted that there is good value in the forwards this year.
ryz
February 17, 2009 at 12:20 pm
i had no premiums in my dt backs, just alot of mids/cheapies, but after seeing goddard play in the middle i got him in instead of pettard as his game as everyone has said looks to be prepped for massive dt’s.
although i like to keep a fair bit of money in the bank, and this leaves me with little 🙁
Goldmoss
February 17, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Surely the amount of premiums you pick in a position is determined by the depth of the rookies in that position.
For example most people can only see 2-3 back rookies (Hill, Hurley) getting regular games early, therefore, you are forced to spend up a bit in the backline to get 7 players on deck each week.
On the other side of the coin the forwards are overpopulated with talented rookies (Yarran, Ziebell, Sidebottom, Gumbleton etc) therefore you are more likely to take the punt and play 3-4 rookies in your forwards leaving less spots for the premiums (once you squeeze a couple of value picks (Lucas, Higgins, Skipworth) in there.
Last year just about all of us were caught out by the fact there were not many rookie backs playing therefore making there turnover near non existent.
Looks like this year, again, there will be no real turnover value in the backs.
If I can afford it I will be having Hill and possibly Hurley on the bench and praying that another rookie back pops his head up in the middle of the year (a la Ibbotson).
Burley
February 17, 2009 at 1:51 pm
didn’t Hurley have his gall bladder removed and is going to miss all the NAB cup – can’t see too much value in him.
chris
February 17, 2009 at 2:13 pm
How about Suban and one of Kite, Petrenko or Gallman as a No.8 rookie backman. Originally had Gallman but with his injury have changed to Kite with Hill as No.7 and Hurley as No.6. Realise Hurley will be struggling to make Rd.1 so might have a bit of rejigging in last week.
Rupe
February 17, 2009 at 2:41 pm
chris, NVB is out for rd.1 which could indirectly open up a spot for Petrenko, Kite or Dangerfield. If Petters or Kite are named then they’re good options – Petters especially.
Dan
February 17, 2009 at 3:05 pm
m0nty where did the Quarter-by-Quarter scores go?
m0nty
February 17, 2009 at 4:29 pm
I have agreed to take down Super Coach scores during the NAB Cup, Dan. 🙁
Narkee
February 17, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Why is that Monty?
Dan
February 17, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Is someone on your case?
Maybe you could just comment out the SuperCoach portion and leave the Quarter-by-Quarter DT scores?
I liked the Quarter-by-Quarter tables because I could see that someone scored 35,0,0,0 is either really terrible or missed 3/4 of the game 🙂
Colin
February 17, 2009 at 5:18 pm
what gives monty? you being muscled by herald sun?
Dicko
February 17, 2009 at 5:22 pm
I like the premium back plan because they, Heath Shaw (2008) excepted, score consistently well whereas forwards go up and down too much. Also as others have noted there are few rookie backs to chose this year. Cheap and rookie backs score badly as a whole. Not so for centres and forwards.
It will probably go all pear shaped for me by week 2, but at least I have aplan.
scott
February 17, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Hey guys. What do you all think is the best strategy for number of premiums, mid priced and rookies.
I know it changes every year with different players in those categories.
I usually go the high low approach. in my team so far i have
12 premiums (over 360k)
13 rookies (between 75k -> 200k)
5 mids (200k -> 360k)
any thoughts
Lee
February 17, 2009 at 5:46 pm
I’m pretty new to this site and am mightily impressed with the level of analysis and discussion. The fanplanner facility is sensational – allowed me to ditch the spreadsheets that I used last year. Well done to all those who have contributed to the development of fanfooty. I am curious though about the effectiveness of the analysis, as well as the accuracy/usefulness of the “guru” forecasts. To gauge it, I’d be grateful is Monty and other regular contributors could reveal how well your own DT/SC teams performed last year. Asking too much?
m0nty
February 17, 2009 at 7:30 pm
I have edited the SC scores out of the By Quarter pages and restored the links on the front page, as per Dan’s suggestion.
The reason for doing so is discussions with Champion Data.
Dan
February 17, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Cheers monty!
Brad
February 17, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Might be time to send our friends at Champion Data a horse head Monty…
Rupe mentions no NVB for round 1, could anyone tell me why, does he have a suspension to serve?
Scumbag
February 17, 2009 at 9:15 pm
Brad, I can confirm that NVB has an injury wasn’t sure if it put him out of R1 though, he has a plantar fascia tear, at least 3-4 weeks out, might extend to R1.
dylan
February 17, 2009 at 9:36 pm
lee, before i used this site i came around 45,000 and last year i found out about this site a bit before the start of the season and finished 15,000,i peaked at 2800. this year i have used it a lot more and actually made lots of fanplanner teams =) as well as other footy sites to hopefully improve my score a lot more
i think this helps a lot because last season i did not really know the rookies as much as i do this season. a lot of the people that read a bit would have known to pick up players like Palmer which i missed out on. i just picked a few randoms, but i found out about rioli and a couple of others which was a big help to my team.
hope this helps/answers ur question