I’ve already launched this on the latest edition of the Coaches Box podcast yesterday, but I should let readers of the FanFooty blog know about it as well.
Each AFL player is classified by Champion Data (official stat providers to the AFL) in the 2008 AFL Prospectus according to their position, their size and their role. For instance, Brett Burton is a medium-sized general forward, which means his classification is Fwd-Med-Gen. Similarly, Sam Mitchell is a small inside midfielder, giving him the designation of Mid-Small-In, and Sam Fisher is a tall key-position defender, meaning he has the code of Def-Tall-Key.
The Breakdown - there is a Dream Team Breakdown and a Super Coach Breakdown - is a table that lists the averages of each Champion Data player type against each AFL team in 2008, along with how many players have played against that team of that designation, with links to drill down on each score from each player against each opponent. The cells in the table are colour-coded according to their ranking: the lowest team average is coloured red, the second- to fourth-lowest are light red, the second- to fourth-highest are light green and the highest is solid green.
Those who are long-time listeners of the Coaches Box know that this kind of table made its public debut on the Round 22 episode last year, when we had Statsman74 on the show. Among the numerous spreadsheet screenshots he shared with us were two labeled DT scores by player positions and types - Part 1 and DT scores by player positions and types - Part 2, which are pretty much what you see in the Breakdown. Unlike those spreadsheets, however, the Breakdown includes links to the full list of players of each position who have already played against that opponent in 2008, as well as a list of this week’s relevant players.
The Breakdown is a powerful tool for helping to pick captains and figuring out which players are worth selling due to their rollercoaster coming to an end… or not. For instance, Dean Cox traditionally has a day out against the Swans, but even he struggled in the reverse fixture earlier in the year, and no ruckman has scored over 86 against Sydney all year so it might be time to take the captain’s armband off him this week. As we said in the podcast, it’s also an indicator that this week is not the time to sell Cyril Rioli because small forwards tend to carve up the Dons. It should also prove useful for those participating in the Lethal League or Premium DT competitions who are looking to pick up new players for a week or two of service: Michael Gardiner against the Bulldogs has a great matchup, as do small Kangaroo defenders like Gavin Urquhart and Ed Lower.
Enjoy!
A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Herald-Sun Super Coach. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.
Big Dippers
I said last week that you might want to wait until round 12 to get on Andrew McLeod, but with breakevens of 105 in DT and 125 in SC, this week might not be so bad either. Scores of 57/69 this week with Angus Monfries tagging him in the game against Essendon were at least somewhat of a recovery after the two shockers in the previous fortnight. It is a worry that he gets tagged every week, but this week the Crows play the Tigers who are without their primary tagger Kane Johnson. If you think Chris Hyde will get the job on McLeod then you’ll understand why I’m hot on him this week, especially in Super Coach: Hyde’s last three targets have been Gary Ablett jnr (135/164), Brent Stanton (64/92) and Adam Goodes (96/142). Expect McLeod to blow through his breakevens as the Crows spank another minnow team in their dream 2008 draw. The only fly in the ointment is that Adelaide’s draw gets considerably harder after Richmond with pretty much every top 8 side in a row… but I only ever considered McLeod a Super Coach prospect and he still should do well in that competition despite what seems to be a weekly tag.
Also last week, I recommended waiting another week on Nick Riewoldt. His price dropped again in all competitions after a 108/138 but his breakevens are down into the 60s this week. Don’t expect huge things out of him this week because the Bulldogs haven’t given up a DT ton to a KP forward this year, but he should be solid for 80-90 at least from here on in.
Coming off an unprecedented two years of 105+ averages in Dream Team, plus lifting his Super Coach average to 112 last year, Kane Cornes was targeted by many coaches as a mid-season upgrade target. The smart thing to do was to wait for the two scores from his Sydney games to cycle through - not surprisingly, his two lowest scores for the year - and that process is almost complete. With breakevens of 123/97 and year-to-date price drops of $69,500/$166,100 the time to do that trade is probably next week, after playing a Carlton side that has been surprisingly effective at dampening the scores of opposing midfielders in 2008… albeit he’s averaging 106 in his last four against the Blues.
Adam McPhee has been very disappointing so far given his top 10 finish in the backs last year, but his role in the Adelaide game has raised some questions about a possible exhumation of his fantasy value. Far from the return of Scott Lucas further hurting his value with less space in the forward line, it has actually led to him moving further up the ground and getting more link-up work. 12 kicks, four handpasses, 12 marks and three goals straight is a highly respectable return. Having dropped $104,000/$139,800 from his starting price and with breakevens of 57/32, he makes a sneaky upgrade target with considerable risk and considerable upside.
Loop De Loop
Austin Wonaeamirri, come back! Where has that goalsneak dynamo with the fistpump action gone? I know it’s a compliment when you’re in your first 10 games and the opposition coach puts a stopper on you just because you’re so valuable to the team, as Ross Lyon did with Sean Dempster, but it destroyed Wona’s fantasy momentum if not his real game momentum. Scores of 42/37 inflated his breakeven back up to his trailing average, meaning that he’s going to need another big gamewinning performance to get this cash cow to start milking again. The only consolation is that his spot on the senior list is most likely safe since Russell Robertson’s ruptured achilles put him on the LTI list.
Cyril Rioli, too, is starting to dry up in the cash cow stakes. Breakevens in the 70s are the result of his 46/27 against the Dogs. I have a bit more faith in Junior Boy, however, because he was looking like he might have hit the rookie wall back in the Collingwood game in round 7, where only some garbage time charity from Shane Crawford saved his day from complete calamity, but he rebounded with good scores in the next two games. The other reason I’m not selling him this week is that his next opponent is the Bombers who are the worst team in defending against small forwards, with Mathew Stokes, Eddie Betts and Paul Medhurst getting 120+ DT scores against them this year already.
Briefly, other players who look to have hit their peaks and/or already be on the way down: Kieren Jack, Leigh Harding, Tim Callan, Bernie Vince, Clint Bartram, Bachar Houli, Kurt Tippett, Greg Baum.
The pickings are rather lean this week, which is bad timing given the problems with many premium players, particularly in the forwards.
Backpocalypse
Tim Houlihan, WCE BAC. DT: 4899 selections, $83,500, -58 BE, 60.5 avg. SC: 2669 selections, $94,200, -24 BE, 40.5 avg.
Beau Wilkes, WCE BAC. DT: 6337 selections, $72,600, -59 BE, 57 avg. SC: 12331 selections, $83,400, -131 BE, 90.5 avg.
Michael Wilson, PTA BAC. DT: 1624 selections, $267,700, 110 BE, 45 avg. SC: 1330 selections, $344,000, 138 BE, 34.5 avg.
Plenty of coaches are eyeing off the two Eaglets for fantasy relevance. The first instinct of many is to go for the rookie-listed player as the cash return on the downgrade is around $10,000 greater, but my feeling is that Houlihan has much more of a chance to get a decent run of games, as coach John Worsfold included his name among three players he nominated to be given opportunities in the rest of West Coast’s sorry 2008 season (the others being Brad Ebert and Chris Masten). Wilkes’ Super Coach scores make him much more tasty in that competition, nevertheless. My recommendation is that if you can swing Wilkes to be your ninth back then by all means take that extra ten Gs and run, because hopefully you’ll never be playing him. If your other bench back is someone like a Scott Selwood, Albert Proud or Scott D. Thompson, then it’s not worth the risk of getting a zero later in the season, and Houlihan is more likely not to let you down.
If you can possibly wait, Dennis Armfield is likely to hit the bubble next week, so he might be a better DT prospect. Then again, he might eventually get dicked around like Darren Pfeiffer is currently, so perhaps it’s better to go with the kids in a rebuilding side like the Weagles.
Centrageddon
Josh P. Kennedy, HAW CTR. DT: 3974 selections, $83,500, -48 BE, 55.5 avg. SC: 4671 selections, $94,200, -32 BE, 44.5 avg.
Farren Ray, WBD CTR. DT: 948 selections, $286,200, 90 BE, 62 avg. SC: 1063 selections, $337,200, 107 BE, 48 avg.
If you didn’t get on Trent Cotchin last week then you’ve missed the boat. K3 is a poor substitute. With Crawford, McGlynn and Hodge due to return soon, Kennedy’s spot is temporary, and he’ll be back at Box Hill before he earns any decent coin.
Forwardystopia
Jarryd Morton, HAW FWD. DT: 5587 selections, $83,500, -69 BE, 66 avg. SC: 6593 selections, $94,200, -84 BE, 70.5 avg.
Travis Varcoe, GEE FWD. DT: 1663 selections, $184,600, 21 BE, 58.5 avg. SC: 2300 selections, $264,100, 42 BE, 58.5 avg.
Nathan Krakouer, PTA FWD. DT: 1980 selections, $191,500, 43 BE, 50.5 avg. SC: 4215 selections, $217,500, 21 BE, 55 avg.
Adem Yze, MEL CTR/FWD. DT: 846 selections, $340,900, 119 BE, 68 avg. SC: 2406 selections, $380,200, 103 BE, 62.5 avg.
Scott Lucas, ESS FWD. DT: 2762 selections, $384,200, 236 BE, 25.5 avg. SC: 4215 selections, $534300, 271 BE, 25 avg.
A large number of coaches are in blind panic mode in the forwards: Brett Burton and Robert Murphy suspended; Jonathan Brown iffy to start with that hyperextended knee; Paul Chapman treated more gently than a newborn child by the Geelong medicos; Ryan Gamble, Ryan Davis and Shane Valenti warming the pine; and Kurt Tippett stinking up the joint something chronic. As with Kennedy above, Morton’s place in the Hawks’ 22 is under severe threat from returning stars. He has collected the ball 20+ times in his first two games but his disposal efficiency leaves a lot to be desired, something which gets a black mark next to your name under the current Hawthorn administration. Notwithstanding that, Morton obviously knows how to read the play, and any player who racks up 20 touches in his first two games can’t be dismissed out of hand. With reluctance, he earns the title of Bubble Boy of the Week.
Meanwhile, the only interest from fantasy coaches in Scott Lucas should be in how much he deflates his price for the 2009 season. As for Yze, he won’t be sighted in 2009 in anything other than civvies.
Big selection news in what had been a relatively quiet position for fantasy coaches this year, the forwards. No Paul Chapman for the second week running, and Geelong have also dropped Ryan Gamble. This week was the week to get rid of Gamble anyway, but those who picked up Chappy last week get double the pain. Word is that the bald one’s omission is precautionary, which makes it possibly even more frustrating!
Meanwhile, Melbourne has seen fit to omit much-hyped rookie Shane Valenti… I guess that answers the question of which rookie they’ll demote once Jack Grimes returns in round 13, huh? Austin Wonaeamirri owners rejoice. This puts into disarray many coaches’ downgrade plans, leaving Jarryd Morton and Ryan Davis as the only forward rookies who played last week. EDIT: And now we’ve seen the full teams, Davis has been dropped and Morton is the only one left standing! It’s a worry.
There will be quite a few coaches who get the triple whammy with these three players all in their forwards this week. To those unlucky few I say…. PANIC!!!!
A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Herald-Sun Super Coach. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.
Big Dippers
The last time I did this feature I recommended picking up Brad Johnson and was against Jonathan Brown . At the time, Brown was showing signs of the dreaded osteitis pubis, and he did actually miss that week’s AFL match. Since the all star game, however, Browndog has been off the leash, culminating in a huge fantasy ton against the Saints in round 9. With two more Gabba games coming up against sides he should dominate, you’d better get on board before the train leaves the station. Johnson has been serviceable too, so he’s worth relying on once again.
Nick Riewoldt, on the other hand, is much more of a worry. Three sub-70 DT scores in a row is out of character from him, even taking into consideration his injury worries. He’s getting knocked from pillar to post in the press for not tackling, which is a bit silly because he’s there to mark and kick goals… but he’s not doing much of that either. This week he’s got the Demons, and will probably have Colin Garland to deal with, who is fresh off a confidence-boosting performance against Lance Franklin. Melbourne will no doubt drop a bloke in front of Riewoldt like they did with Franklin, so expect Rooey’s scores to again be substandard. The bottom line is that you should wait another week or two if you’re gagging to pick him up.
Tarkyn Lockyer is coming off a 100+ averaging DT year in 2007, but with a shift to the half-forward line has come a big deflation of his fantasy relevance in ‘08. 122 against the Cats last Friday was a good sign, but his scoring has become way too inconsistent to bother tracking his rollercoaster ride.
Joel Bowden’s price is plummeting with every sub-90 score he posts, and but his breakeven is edging ever closer to his scores. This week his DT BE is 108 and in SC it’s 137, with J-Bo not having cracked the ton across five games in 2008. Another week or two and he will have flattened out, I think, making him a hot commodity for those who want to cash in Austin Wonaeamirri, Harry Taylor or Garrick Ibbotson.
Finally, Andrew McLeod has been tagged right out of the game for two weeks in a row, which has destroyed his price and exploded his breakevens. By round 12 when those scores have had the chance to cycle all the way through his price, he should be ready to be the last piece of your backline puzzle. That’s assuming that he bounces back this week, of course!
Loop De Loop
There is no question that Kurt Tippett and Ryan Gamble have topped out, and should be moved on if possible. The only possible counterpoint to that consensus notion is that Tippett has the Bombers this week and the Crows are on the rebound on the national stage of Friday night football, which may mean a goalfest from which Tippett could profit. His BEs are 80/96, so it would be a risk.
Tens of thousands of fantasy coaches have been relying on Troy Simmonds as their second ruck this season, but is it time to upgrade him? The late withdrawal of Jeff White last week with the suspicious-sounding “back soreness” puts a bit of a fly in the ointment insofar as figuring out who the second-best ruckman will be. I daresay most coaches will not want to even look at their rucks at the moment, but it’s worth noting that with Simmonds’ poor round 8 score of 35/37 still cycling through, his price isn’t going to get much higher. The situation is more pressing in SC, where Simmonds is the #13 ruck as opposed to #5 in DT, so if you’re targeting a Jolly, Sandilands, White or Fraser, now is a good time to pull the trigger.
Elsewhere, I’m hearing a lot of talk about how Cyril Rioli, Rhys Palmer and Garrick Ibbotson are keepers, but this seems premature to me at round 9. Even a rookie fantasy gun like Joel Selwood had to be replaced late last year through injury. First-year players usually find some way to drop out of the side from injury or form concerns, because their young bodies just can’t handle the load. It would be folly, in my opinion, to not keep a trade on ice for each of these players to replace them as they inevitably fall away.
Another important week for bubble boys this week, as several popular rookies have hit the top of the rollercoaster, including Kurt Tippett, Ryan Gamble and maybe even David Myers.
Backpocalypse
Matt Riggio, KAN BAC. DT: 5224 selections, $112,900, -24 BE, 54.5 avg. SC: 3421 selections, $203,900, 1 BE, 61.5 avg.
Kepler Bradley, FRE BAC, FWD. DT: 4056 selections, $196,500, -5 BE, 76.5 avg. SC: 10649 selections, $177,000, -33 BE, 70.5 avg.
Scott McMahon, KAN BAC, FWD. DT: 1505 selections, $236,200, 52 BE, 63 avg. SC: 2275 selections, $361,100, 76 BE, 71.5 avg.
Jason Roe, BRL BAC. DT: 1658 selections, $246,700, 75 BE, 55.5 avg. SC: 804 selections, $428,500, 129 BE, 65.5 avg.
Tom Williams, WBD BAC. DT: 598 selections, $202,500, 88 BE, 32.5 avg. SC: 1399 selections, $261,600, 108 BE, 25.5 avg.
Nick Malceski, SYD BAC. DT: 1068 selections, $377,100, 189 BE, 47.5 avg. SC: 819 selections, $541,600, 247 BE, 41 avg.
I’ll include the two BAC/FWDs in the backs since there’s a lot less quality to be had in the backs this year - not that it matters since you’re not going to be considering either of them. No, not even with Kepler Bradley’s big negative breakeven. This is Kepler Bradley we’re talking about here, people! He is a spud of the highest order. You can not seriously consider Bradley. Like Marcus Drum, Chris Mayne and Ryan Murphy before him, the third tall slot on the Dockers forward line is good for a few weeks of decent scoring at most, after which sanity prevails.
Riggio is the only player amongst this lot that should interest fantasy coaches. Working against him, however, is the implacable hatred of Kangaroos coach Dean Laidley that fantasy coaches have worked up over the last two years. Laidley has consistently mucked about with his rookie backs, to the point where just about every one of you must have been burned by a Lachie Hansen, Scott D. Thompson… even Riggio himself last year. You just can not trust Laidley to leave Riggio in the North 22 long enough for him to be a decent backup.
Tim Houlihan and Beau Wilkes hit the bubble next week. I’d be much more inclined to wait a week to see how they stack up in the Eagles structure.
Centrageddon
Trent Cotchin, RIC CTR. DT: 14061 selections, $119500, -25 BE, 57.5 avg. SC: 19537 selections, $139200, -61 BE, 73 avg.
Brent Reilly, ADE CTR. DT: 844 selections, $327400, 92 BE, 77.5 avg. SC: 1483 selections, $382300, 98 BE, 67 avg.
Cotchin is the real deal, which makes him Bubble Boy of the Week. He is particularly a must in Super Coach. Craig Bird, Bachar Houli, Travis Tuck, Cale Morton, Tim Callan, Kieren Jack (in DT only)… all these centre rookies are ripe for the plucking, and Cotchin is the man to get.
Ruckolocaust
Chris Bryan, COL RUC. DT: 995 selections, $220600, 35 BE, 65.5 avg. SC: 1556 selections, $267700, 54 BE, 54.5 avg.
Ivan Maric, ADE RUC. DT: 2093 selections, $207700, 76 BE, 40.5 avg. SC: 2018 selections, $284300, 56 BE, 58.5 avg.
No and no.
Forwardystopia
Shane Valenti, MEL CTR, FWD. DT: 12480 selections, $72600, -62 BE, 58.5 avg. SC: 13249 selections, $83400, -83 BE, 67 avg.
Ryan Davis, WCE FWD. DT: 4813 selections, $72600, -20 BE, 37.5 avg. SC: 4696 selections, $83400, -24 BE, 37.5 avg.
Valenti looks like the standout option here, but there is still the problem of which rookie Melbourne is going to demote once Jack Grimes returns to the senior list in three weeks’ time. Austin Wonaeamirri is undoubtedly the more exciting player, and the Demons fans desperately want someone to barrack for each week, so Valenti may very well be the odd man out. Davis might end up playing more games, although at his current scoring rate he doesn’t look like a fantasy option. The only other pre-bubble forward rookie who played in round 9 was Jarryd Morton, and as Molly said on the Coaches Box podcast this week, there’s no guarantees on Morton getting a decent run of games with the Hawks’ injury/suspension list set to shorten again soon. It’s a tricky situation, and with most coaches feeling a desperate need to downgrade the aforementioned Tippett and/or Gamble this week there is not much to downgrade to. The decision that most will make is to go with Valenti and hope that another Demon goes down with injury in the next two or three games. If I was Brad Miller, I’d be very wary of blokes carrying 4×2s in the MCG carpark for the next little while…
If you’re just about to pull the trigger on a trade to get Paul Chapman into your side this week, hold your horses! He’s a late withdrawal tonight, Travis Varcoe to replace him.
Teams are in for the Footscray v North Melbourne game, and Josh Hill is one of two outs for the Bullies.
You did trade him out two or three weeks ago? Didn’t you?
If not, now is the time.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: Callan, Lake, Gilbee
HB: Hargrave, Wight, Morris
C: Eagleton, Boyd, Cross
HF: Murphy, Hahn, Johnson
F: Akermanis, Minson, Welsh
FOLL: Hudson, Griffen, Cooney
I/C: Addison, Giansiracusa, Ray, Williams
EMG: Hill, Ward, Tiller
IN: Ray, Callan
OUT: Hill, Tiller
NORTH MELBOURNE
B: Gibson, Petrie, Watt
HB: Harding, Firrito, Wells
C: Riggio, Rawlings, Simpson
HF: Jones, N.Thompson, Hale
F: Grant, Harvey, Campbell
FOLL: McIntosh, Harris, Lower
I/C: Power, Thomas, Pratt, McMahon
EMG: Sinclair, Urquhart, Ross
IN: Pratt
OUT: Obst (punctured lung)
Two rookie elevations were announced today: Ryan Davis, who will apparently suit up for the Eagles this weekend in Carrara, and Shane Valenti, the great white hope of the Demons… and of fantasy coaches everywhere. With Cyril Rioli, Josh Hill, Bernie Vince and other forward rookies just about at the top of their rollercoaster ride, Valenti is the perfect downgrade target for those who want to harvest some cold hard cash. Get on board while you can!
Live drafts are some of the most enjoyable times you will have in fantasy sports. When you have a bunch of mates who are all gung-ho about their coaching skill pitted against each other and the clock in a test of your acumen and adaptability, it’s a lot of fun. However, not many people will have experienced this joy with AFL fantasy sports, so here’s the lowdown on what should be front of mind as you sit down to man the buttons.
First off, be mindful of positional requirements. This is the most important thing to get right. As I went into in my review post, Premium DT is using the same positional designations as the salary cap DT and SC competitions, which means an overabundance of midfielders, precious few rucks, and way too many back and forward slots to fill from a small pool.
Let’s crunch the numbers. Here’s a list of players in each position in groups of 10, with their combined averages from 2008, plus high and low numbers.
Rucks Avg High Low
1-10 83.4 105.4 73.0
11-20 65.0 71.6 60.3
21-30 54.3 59.9 48.9
Backs Avg High Low
1-10 89.2 101.9 82.1
11-20 80.3 82.1 77.7
21-30 76.7 77.3 76.1
31-40 72.0 74.0 70.6
41-50 68.4 70.6 65.4
51-60 63.9 65.4 61.9
61-70 59.6 61.6 58.1
71-80 56.5 57.5 55.5
81-90 53.9 55.4 52.3
Mids Avg High Low
1-10 105.6 112.9 101.3
11-20 99.0 101.2 95.8
21-30 93.0 95.6 90.9
31-40 89.5 90.4 88.0
41-50 85.5 87.3 84.6
51-60 82.4 83.9 81.0
61-70 79.9 81.0 78.7
71-80 76.6 78.3 75.0
Fwds Avg High Low
1-10 95.4 102.9 88.7
11-20 83.9 86.9 81.8
21-30 79.9 81.1 78.4
31-40 75.5 77.3 72.9
41-50 70.7 72.6 69.0
51-60 67.4 68.7 66.0
61-70 64.4 65.5 63.0
71-80 60.9 62.9 58.1
81-90 56.1 57.0 55.0
The way to use this table is to figure out which part of the draft you’re in, figure out what band of 10 players are available in each position, and concentrate on the positions with the greatest discrepancy in scores. Within these bands, if you see a player who is averaging (or you predict to average) many more points than the next available, he’s the one you should be targeting. For instance for the purposes of the first round of the draft, look at the difference between the high and low for each of the 1-10 slots. The difference is greatest for the rucks, which means that you have to concentrate on rucks first. Dean Cox should go #1 in every single Premium DT draft, or the bloke with the #1 pick isn’t serious - at 105 he’s averaging nine more than the second-ranked ruck. Jeff White should also be somewhere very high in the first round as well, as it’s another massive nine-point drop to the third ruck. After that things bunch up a bit, with Troy Simmonds and Aaron Sandilands hovering mid-80s, David Hille and Cameron Cloke about 80, and five others above 70. There are six rucks clumped in the mid-60s, which completes the list of the true first rucks in each AFL team. Then you get into the second rucks, and you would want to avoid them if possible.
So, in a serious draft, somewhere between two and four rucks would be the norm in the first round. The obvious next targets are the backs and forwards, but which to choose? My advice would be to concentrate on the backs, given the carnage that has gone on there this year. Heath Shaw and Chad Cornes are definite top 5 picks, given that Chad will most likely return by the start of the comp in round 10, and there is a 10-point gap between these two and Jake King. King and Nathan Bock should be your next targets at around 90 (Brent Guerra is also averaging 90-ish but has been poor lately). In the forwards, Matthew Richardson and Lance Franklin are the obvious targets, but there is not that much daylight between their averages and the rest of the top 10… particularly given that there are a good number of premium forwards who have underperformed in the first third of the year. I would throw Matthew Pavlich and Paul Chapman into that same tier and forget the rest of the top 10 for now.
As for the centres… why am I ignoring the highest-scoring position in the game? Ah, but it’s not just raw points that matter. Joel Corey, despite being the top scorer in DT this year, should not be the #1 Premium DT draft pick. He should not even be in the top five, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him drop out of the first round altogether. Private drafts are all about scarcity. There is no question that Corey plus his two Geelong engine room cohorts Gary Ablett jnr and Jimmy Bartel deserve to be somewhere in the first two or three rounds. However, there are just too many midfielders in this game. The other positions deserve more attention, particularly in the early rounds.
Of course, you have to be mindful of team structure. Even if the best available player in your draft at your draft position is a back four times in a row, that doesn’t mean you should select four backs to start with. Across the first five rounds you should ideally have one of each position plus another back or forward. Unlike most American leagues, there is not the opportunity for coaches to load up their bench with backups in a particular position - as happens a lot with running backs in NFL fantasy, for instance - so you won’t have to worry until late to get your second ruck if you miss the initial rush because you’ll get #20 at worst, even if you wait until your last pick to choose him.
One thing to keep very much in mind is that it’s a long draft process, but it’s very important to keep your concentration right to the end. My experience in AFL draft leagues is that the league is usually not won in the first five rounds, unlike most US leagues, because scoring potential is spread out over every position. In the NFL, running backs dominate the first two or three rounds of drafts because selecting the right one is usually the ticket to victory - I have seen NFL seasons where the team with the best RB usually wins the majority of leagues. That dynamic is not at play in the AFL, for better or worse, and that means that rounds 15-22 are probably where your team’s success or failure is going to be measured. Yes, it’s a bit of a crapshoot, especially with the complete lack of bench options in Premium Dream Team meaning that you are hostage to luck-based selection, suspension and injury disasters. I can also tell you from personal experience that when it all comes together and you’re crowned champion of your league, it’s the biggest adrenaline rush you can have in fantasy sports!
