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[Mat0369]

Tough one, I'd probably take Clarry but depends on how you plan on using the 83k.

My dilemma this week is Brayshaw vs Titch vs Josh Kelly, reckon this order is about right.

I wouldn't go near Josh Kelly. I think Brayshaw has been amazing other than the two games the tag got to him. All the other scores have been over 110. The one thing to look at is he comes up against both those sides again in back to back games down the track. The Hawks game his score could have been even worse. They sent him to tag Mitchell at HT and that eventually broke the tag in the last quarter allowing him to rack up the touches at that point.

[Bully]

Tough one, I'd probably take Clarry but depends on how you plan on using the 83k.

My dilemma this week is Brayshaw vs Titch vs Josh Kelly, reckon this order is about right.

I wouldn't go near Josh Kelly. I think Brayshaw has been amazing other than the two games the tag got to him. All the other scores have been over 110. The one thing to look at is he comes up against both those sides again in back to back games down the track. The Hawks game his score could have been even worse. They sent him to tag Mitchell at HT and that eventually broke the tag in the last quarter allowing him to rack up the touches at that point.

So Titch vs Brayshaw. Who's the best bet?

[Mat0369]

I kind of went into way too much depth here because I have Mitchell and other than round 1 he has been disappointing and I can't figure out why.  ​He is second in overall disposals and second in effective disposals but he is scoring way lower than he did in 2017 and 2018. He is getting the ball but why is he scoring less?

A basic look at his numbers from 2017, 2018 and 2021 including finals. These are the differences per game

Kicks

13.9, 16.2, 11.4

Handballs

21.8, 18.1, 21.9

Marks

5.3, 4.7, 4.4

Tackles

6.5, 6.3, 4.1

Goal Assists

0.4, 0.5, 0.7

Goals

0.5, 0.5, 0.1

Inside 50's

3.5, 4.9, 3.6

Clearances

6.3, 8.0, 3.3

Frees For

1.4, 2.3, 1.0

Frees Against

1.6, 1.3, 1.4

Contested Possessions

14.77, 16.21, 10.71

Clangers

4.5, 4.2, 4.3

DE%

72.83, 71.95, 74.23

SC

118.9, 129.1, 101.6

So he is down a couple of kicks a game, maybe 1 mark a game, 2 tackles, half a goal, a boatload of clearances and contested possessions. His turnover numbers are down from 2018 but up from 2017, however his overall disposal efficiency is up from both of those seasons.

I wouldn't be too stressed about the kicks and marks. What worries me is the contested possession numbers have drastically fallen, he isn't tackling as much and he is 3-5 clearances down a game. There have been times he is starting out of the square at the CB's and the clearance numbers are down due to less repeat stoppages. I had a quick look at the contested possession percentage league wide and this is what I got as a result.

2017

37.4%

2018

38.9%

2019

39.5%

2020

40.4%

2021

37.9%

So while the overall percentage of contested possessions are down from last year and 2019, they are up from 2017 where he still had 4 more contested possessions per game and a 118 average.  Round 1 he had 14 contested which was right around the 2017 number and he had the big score. Add in the 5 tackles which were also closer to the 2017 numbers and he produced his lone score over 110 for the season. If you think he can average that a week I'd probably grab Mitchell because the volume is 100% still there in terms of possessions. I just feel with less stoppages it's hurting how he wins the ball.

[Bully]

Superb analysis Matt, I suppose the increase in uncontested football has made a significant impact on various mids, Cripps suffereing too. There's also the fact Hawthorn are losing & not getting too many favours with the scaling & an increase in points down back.

Probably stick with Brayshaw for now & then reassess in a couple of weeks, can't see Titch becoming too expensive to bring in down the track.

[Mat0369]

Cripps is another issue altogether. There have been multiple times this year where a soft free kick has been paid against him resulting in a goal to the opposition that has seen his score plummet. That has probably hurt him a couple times this year where he should have hit the ton or had a big score.

He is also down 4 touches a game from 2018 (he was 9th in the AFL) and 3 down from 2019 (17th) to sit at around 25.71 per game which is good for 41st in the league.

This year he is averaging 13.29 contested possessions per game which is good for 11th in the AFL. 2018 he averaged 17.64 (1st) and 2019 he averaged 16.95 (2nd) so he is well down there.

He is 4th in the AFL for clangers per game (5.86). That is up from 2018 where he averaged 4.50 (8th) and 2019's 4.30 (10th) on less disposals. He is up in goal assists fractionally but down on tackles.

Interestingly there are maybe three players that seems to have stayed around their contested possession numbers from 2018/2019 that were in the top handful. Oliver has fractionally improved on both those seasons while Cunnington is right around his 2018/2019 numbers and Boak is the same as 2019 with 14 per game.

[RoughRed]

Superb analysis Matt, I suppose the increase in uncontested football has made a significant impact on various mids

+1 - A great geeking analysis
I am a real Tich fan and when I watch him play he still seems to be everywhere
But as you point out Matt it is the drop in clearances and tackles that seem to be resulting in "lower" scores
I have him in my team and am happy (just) with the output but can not see him captaining again!
@Matt When I watch at Oliver playing (also in my team) i get concerned at his scoring because he, at times does not seem as prevalent, but so far he is one of the more consistent scorers - is that a result of primarily his contested possession numbers?

[Mat0369]

@Matt When I watch at Oliver playing (also in my team) i get concerned at his scoring because he, at times does not seem as prevalent, but so far he is one of the more consistent scorers - is that a result of primarily his contested possession numbers?

Contested ball numbers have always been supercoach gold. Off the top of my head guys like Fyfe, JPK and Cripps have always had much higher SC to Fantasy ratio and this was off the back of their contested ball numbers. The fact that Oliver is still winning 16 a game is giving him a nice floor. Each contested possession is worth around 4.5 points alone. At 16 a game it gives him a solid 72 point starting base. There is also the scaling that comes into it which will change the value assigned and the total points distributed by the end of the match.

Looking at his AF to SC ratio along with Fyfe, Cripps and JPK's

Oliver

AF

Year   Games   Average
2016   13   68.9
2017   22   101.6
2018   22   109.1
2019   22   105.9
2020   17   91.7
2021   7   112.0

SC

Year   Games   Average
2016   13   70.3
2017   22   111.5
2018   22   114.7
2019   22   109.4
2020   17   122.2
2021   7   113.9

Fyfe

AF

Year   Games   Average
2010   16   68.1
2011   21   98.4
2012   9   89.0
2013   19   97.9
2014   18   102.3
2015   18   105.1
2016   5   98.6
2017   21   97.4
2018   15   102.1
2019   20   105.0
2020   14   75.4
2021   6   91.5

SC

Year   Games   Average
2010   16   72.6
2011   21   108.0
2012   9   93.2
2013   19   106.5
2014   18   122.3
2015   18   124.3
2016   5   105.4
2017   21   108.8
2018   15   113.9
2019   20   120.0
2020   14   113.2
2021   6   114.0


Cripps

AF

Year   Games   Average
2014   3   36.3
2015   20   86.2
2016   21   99.5
2017   15   98.3
2018   22   109.3
2019   20   101.5
2020   17   75.3
2021   7   89.7

SC

Year   Games   Average
2014   3   39.3
2015   20   96.3
2016   21   107.6
2017   15   97.7
2018   22   119.4
2019   20   117.1
2020   17   97.5
2021   7   84.3

JPK

AF

Year   Games   Average
2008   3   60.7
2009   10   71.8
2010   22   73.7
2011   22   86.5
2012   22   101.7
2013   22   91.0
2014   20   105.1
2015   22   107.5
2016   21   108.2
2017   19   98.0
2018   22   90.1
2019   19   100.3
2020   12   81.7
2021   7   88.9

SC

Year   Games   Average
2008   3   50.7
2009   10   80.8
2010   22   81.0
2011   22   96.1
2012   22   120.2
2013   22   105.4
2014   20   113.9
2015   22   110.2
2016   21   113.4
2017   19   102.6
2018   22   96.8
2019   19   106.6
2020   12   95.6
2021   7   90.9

Interestingly enough Cripps AF is higher than his SC this year while Oliver is almost 1:1. The Cripps drop will be tied to his CP drop while Oliver being closer to 1:1 is most likely because he has been ineffective in front of goal at important points of the game.

Oliver is averaging about 5 clangers a game but what needs to be taken into account is how the ball is turned over. If it is a contested possession clanger I believe the negative points are lower compared to an uncontested possession clanger. Because Oliver is generally first hands on the ball if he turns it over he isn't being punished the same way Mitchell may be this year.

So for example Shiels wins the clearance for the Hawks, hand passes it to Mitchell who is surrounded by players and gets tackled almost immediately. Mitchell hand passes the ball while being dragged down to not be caught holding the ball and the opposition end up with possession who are then tackled and it results in a ball up. It will count as an uncontested clanger handball which is a maximum penalty under the CD guidelines. There isn't a lot of transparency in the system due to their scaling and they way they categorise certain stats.

[Keeper27]

Duggan + Campbell OUT
May + A Brayshaw IN
$5.2K Kitty

OR

Duggan + Campbell OUT
Rookie (Murphy/Murray) + Walsh/McCluggage/Mundy IN
$190K Kitty

[Mat0369]

Mitchell has 14 contested and 4 tackles. Currently on 111

[Bully]

Mitchell has 14 contested and 4 tackles. Currently on 111

Think I missed my opportunity with Titch, hopefully Brayshaw repays the faith.

[Bully]

Sinking feeling now, reckon I've made a serious mistake taking Brayshaw over Titch, almost season defining.

[Bully]

I can feel a serious rage trade coming on.

[RoughRed]

Tex has to go!
Bolton M/F $498K BE 67 Av 109.3 Round 13 bye
or
Impey  Fwd $452K BE 78 AV 98.3 Round 13 bye

[WhatsSC???]

Tex has to go!
Bolton M/F $498K BE 67 Av 109.3 Round 13 bye
or
Impey  Fwd $452K BE 78 AV 98.3 Round 13 bye

Has to be Impey with Bolton out for 2-3weeks

[WhatsSC???]

Which defender to complete my defence...

Lloyd  107.4 $558k  34%teams
or
Ridley 104.9 $488k  25% teams (would also give me 70k in the bank too)


Lloyd has been ever consistent and Ridley has had an injury game affected from concussion.  I'm just worried with Ridley's few games back he's only score in the 80's or do you bank that he will improve again and start scoring over the ton?