The Watchlist - 2025 Edition

Started by Mat0369, January 23, 2025, 06:52:47 PM

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Mat0369

SC is open and I am having a look at a quick draft of my team. I am also going to go through the lines and make a list of potential options that I am considering

First draft

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I don't love it, but I don't hate it. I think a few guys won't be ready for round 1 like Coleman/Gibcus, I'll go through the reasoning for my picks when I start my line posts

Ringo

Nice Structure. Good sitting team till we know rookies playing.

As a lions supporter I avoided Will Ashcroft mainly due to the fact of the number of mids ((Neale, Dunkley, McCluggage, Ashcroft, Fletcher and possibly Levi) that will be competing for points.

Mat0369

#2
Backs

Sheezel - I have him locked in as my D1 right now, the one advantage he has over Flanders is he doesn't play in the Round 0 game or have the Round 2 bye. He is a ball magnet and should play pure mid while being able to pick him as a defender, it's a no brainer

Flanders - He had a monster finish to the season with 4 scores over 120 in his last 6 games. There are a couple question marks heading into the season, with Noble and Rioli coming into the team, where does he play? They also have a really early bye week which isn't ideal. I think he is a pass for now

Ryan - He casually averaged 130 up until his bye week with only 1 score under 105. Post bye he was nowhere near as dominant and averaged 102. Every time I've owned Ryan he has had some bad form slumps while also having a huge hot streak. Priced at 116 you don't want him to start the season cold, but he can also be an early difference maker with a fantastic bye. Right now, he is probably out of my side as I can only really afford one 600k+ defender and that's Sheezel

Whitfield - One of my fave and best picks last season, I traded him in Round 14 and he averaged a whopping 123 for the rest of the season with a low score of 97 (only one under the ton). He had a pretty good start to the season averaging 116 in the first 3 before his first, and then was a bit of a roller coaster leading up to his second bye. He is one I will target as an upgrade with GWS playing Round 0 and then the Round 2 bye. I think I learnt from last year that missing too many of those guys was a recipe for dropping down the rankings.

Zorko - He had an amazing season and outside of a couple clunkers (which he is prone to in past seasons) he was dominant and a league winner. The shift to half back allowed him to play freely and impact games, it sounds like he will stay there but another year older and with Coleman coming back I think I'll hold off. He is also another victim of the opening round fixture.

Gov - A career high 110 for Gov which came at the ripe old age of 32. Two reasons I won't be picking him. He tends to pick up injuries and missed games last year. He also hasn't had a season anywhere near this scoring in the past so it is an outlier.

Sinclair - He is an option I really like for D2. After missing round 1 and a slow start he was a monster. He had a nice mix of playing midfield some games and then also taking the kickins with Nas, so he has a nice floor each week with that role. I don't know if Nas eats into more of those defensive half duties and they look to keep him in the midfield, but he is pretty tempting at his price with a huge ceiling.

Houston - So I think he is due to play Round 1 and miss opening round with the suspension, but he also had a round 3 bye which is a slight killer. I think on that alone it is a pass and I'll look at him as a potential upgrade.

Martin - Not a fan of this pick at his price. He had a 'high floor' last year due to the amount of ball he was getting, although he is a butcher which stopped him having some monster scores in some of those games. He was also thrown around a bit in the second half of the season so it's a pass.

Clark - He is one I really liked last year and he was pretty damn consistent each week. He did have a couple of really poor scores, but more often than not he was hitting the ton and showed to be a good option next to Ryan. I don't mind him as a cheaper option with room to grow, but I like Sinclair a little bit more if I can find 30k or a couple of guys for a little less.

Ridley - He is one of the best kicks in the competition, but he has missed games the last couple of years or he has had his role screwed with resulting in some crap scores. He has a huge ceiling, but I don't think I would take the risk starting him.

Nas - Last year was his breakout season. He takes the majority of the kickins and is amazing by foot. He could take another step this year, but he may be capped by Sinclair taking some of the kickins from him. Maybe a nice upgrade option if he has a clunker or injury

Holmes - He was averaging a solid 105 around the bye before a poor few weeks at the back end of the season. They are planning to throw him around a bit, including time in the middle with Smith. He could average around that mark which would have him in that 8 to 10 range. There is scope for improvement with his age profile and potential to see impactful midfield minutes, however I think I prefer other options.

Sicily - I feel like he will play forward this year with Battle and Barrass coming over while also missing Dear and Lewis up forward. As a forward he is a definite no. Pass

Dale - When the sub score comes out, Dale averages a pretty healthy 102 on the year. He is the designated kick-in guy for the Dogs and is a key to their ball movement from defence to the forward line. 2022 he averaged around that 102 mark, so he is under priced for what he can give you each week. He is one I might consider, but there are others I'd probably pick ahead of him and hope to grab Dale at a cheaper price through the season

Blakey - A breakout season, he finished as D17 by average, but jumped up around 7 points per game from the previous season. He had a few clunkers with 4 sub 70 scores, including a 43. The key for Blakey is to avoid those real clunkers and he could jump into that tier above. He breaks lines and has the ability to turn a game which is great for SC. Personally I will hold off, I don't know if he can take that next step and I will probably look elsewhere to start he year.

Stewart - I currently have him in my starting team, but there are a few red flags with Stewart. He dominated for the majority of 2023, but last year he had a mix of issues including the tag, Guthrie eating into his kick-in dominance and an in game concussion. One way the Cats looked to beat the tag was to play him in the midfield where he attended over 80% of CBA's, on 3 separate occasions  post bye.  In that period he managed to average 109 when you take out the WC game where he injured his hamstring. The worry here is that Smith is expected to play as a permanent CB mid, that pushes Stewart back to his HB role which could see him susceptible to the tag again. Holmes is also running around back there while rotating through the midfield and Guthrie will still eat into those kick-ins killing that high floor. There is a lot of upside to the Stewart pick, you could get a top 5 defender for the price of D18, but he has burnt me in the past and do I want to get back on this ride?

Rioli - New club, old coach, familiar role. Rioli averaged 92 last year and averaged 92 under Hardwick a couple seasons ago. With Flanders moving into a half forward/mid role there are 50 plus odd kick-ins available. You also had Sexton taking another 30 while Powell took the majority with 61. Rioli only took a total of 34 last year and if he can up that total to 60ish, thats maybe a 4 to 5 point per game boost. It gives him a nice floor, but I don't know if I would take the risk in him really breaking out and breaking the ton. He may still not average enough to be worth the move.

May - He is one I picked up on the cheap last year.  He loves an intercept mark and takes the majority of the kick-ins. It looked like a great pickup until he killed me in the Eagles game before getting injured later in the season. I wouldn't expect him to play 22 games which is a cross against his name, but he could have a Gov like season where he marks everything and with kick-in duties he gives himself a nice floor. He may be one to jump on after the inevitable injury as a D6/D7 option on the cheap.

Powell - When I looked at the kick-in numbers, you see Powell generally up there for the Suns with the opportunity to take more. He had a handful of clunkers after starting the season really well, maybe one to just wait and see since how the Suns backline situation plays out.

Vlastuin - He is always on my list with his ridiculous ceiling, but he can't seem to string it together through an entire season. Being in a crap Richmond team probably won't help him but he is one I'll keep an eye on through the season.

McKercher - If he was playing HBF he would be a lock. He was awesome from round 7 when he played averaging 106.5. Unfortunately he missed a bunch of games through that period and it looks like he is switching to the other end of the ground playing HFF and wing. I don't think he can keep up that insane average playing a different role, but it sounds like he was everywhere during the practice match and tempting.

Saad - No Newman opens up the kick-ins for Saad, maybe they go with Gov for most, but he could see an increase to his floor. Hollands is expected to slot into a small defender role next to Saad, he is pretty good defensively and may open up Saad to use his offensive game more. He averaged 103 in 2022 which shows he can score well, Newman has been the defender to own and with him out he may bounce back to a premium player.

Duggan - It sounds like he will be heavily involved in the midfield rotation for the Eagles this year. He may be slightly under-priced with an injury game in his average, but he did put up a couple of real clunkers outside of that game.  He averaged 90 in 2023 and even with a SC friendly role 95 may be his ceiling, he is still one to keep an eye on.

Rivers - Another player that played some midfield minutes last year and put up some huge scores once the move happened. With the Dees getting Trac back and Oliver having a full pre-season, I don't know how much run Rivers will actually get in that role even though it sounds like they're keen to keep him in the rotation. At his price he is one to consider, especially if he continues to be part of that CB rotation. He is one of the Dees more damaging ball users and that will help him score.

Short -

Salem -

Roberts -

Noble -

Perryman -

Mat0369

Backs cont.

This is a place holder, reckon I'll need a second post for each category

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Mat0369

So Darcy out indefinitely, does Reidy come into play as R3? They played him in the ruck late in the season and Jackson forward

arbel

I reckon he does come in. Might be handy cos I think they like Jackson better as a FWD

Mat0369

Quote from: arbel on February 17, 2025, 12:14:07 PMI reckon he does come in. Might be handy cos I think they like Jackson better as a FWD

I'm also reading that they don't want Treacy to be the second ruck if Jackson is the primary. It will open up the door, but I also saw Darcy is expected back by round 3 which would kill any potential price rise