AF 2014 Profile: Gary Ablett Jr

[Jukes]

Ablett sees his price fall again

Gary Ablett Jr
Age: 29- will turn 30 in May
Price: $621,700 (fanplanner)
Position: Midfielder

2010: 21 games, 119 average (Geelong)
2011: 20 games, 112 average (GC)
2012: 20 games, 125 average

2013: 21 games, 114.6 average
2013 Scores: 135, 84, 105, 118, 131, 101, 134, 135, 139, 140, 119, 136, 109, 106, 163, 114, 89, 64, 82, 71, 132

Summary
After a huge 125 average in 2012, who could have predicted the huge drop of over 10 points in average? Who else but me. I said this and was shot down and my call rejected by the majority of the FF community. Soon enough, Ablett proved my prediction correct by shedding 10 points of his average and burning over half of dream team players. Onto 2014- there was various factors which I saw bring his average down in 2013. I believe this will continue to reduce his average in 2014. Firstly, there's of course age- as players get older, their average will most likely reduce. Secondly and more importantly in my opinion, the increasing output of his fellow Suns midfielders will take possessions, marks, tackles and goals from Ablett. This includes Jaeger O'Meara, Jack Martin and Dion Prestia, who will all show just how great they are in 2013, plus other guys like Swallow and Bennell. This could mean more time on the bench or on the forward line (more goals?).

Verdict
Another fall in average for Ablett, and it will not be a smart move to pick him, especially at that price. Still a season or two at lower scoring before he becomes one of those reliable but pretty cheap old blokes. "Spudlett" will average approximately 105 in my opinion- another drop in average of 10 points. Still a long way to go in the pre-season could force me to increase or decrease this prediction.
Another prediction: in 2015 he will be a C/F player and be a reliable 100-110 average up forward and a good pick.


Now, for some humour: here's some insightful comments from some of my favourite members of the FF community.

Jukes has gone missing, we haven't heard from him all night long!

Was last seen saying the following: 'Spudlett'!

Call 000youwereverywrongjukes@hotmail.com if you've seen him anywhere :P

im fine with people doubting mid pricers and rookies

but ablett? Jukes is now a reading on my dumbassometer

Yeah but Jukes was trolling!

There's a line between standing up for your opinion and stubbornness... Shouldn't give respect to someone that can't see past his own opinion. GAJ is god, if you let Jukes talk you out of selecting him, you are more of an idiot than him :P

I'll bet you all that Ablett doesn't go 115+.

I'll take that bet Jukes.

As will I.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha Doubting Abletts

You spuds a kidding yeah?

Anyone who doubts ablett is a spud

All talk.

People are clutching at straws trying to find a realistic reason not to pick him.  :P

If stanton can score 130 against melbourne imagine what gazza will score, new record anyone?  :P

134 and 64 (Stanton scored 142)

Special thanks to elephants and Ziplock for being super-double-mega wrong :)

[Ricochet]

Well done on the prediction mate but starting him was not a bad move this year, with 123ave until the last 6 games.
Nice writeup though

[Nige]

Credit where credit is due. The prediction was made and was nailed.

That said, I'll be very interested to see how 2014's goes for ya mate.

Personally (or not - others more than likely share this view), I hope you're wrong, because the little master has been a 'god' for many fantasy coaches over time and I hope he stays that way.

However, while I do have him in my very ridiculously rough and early draft of a team, he could find himself on the outer and make way for somebody like a Cotchin.

[timmyparso]

But what happened to this prediction?

I will give everybody in this thread $20 if Ablett is averaging more than Stants come bye rounds.

You forgot to add tis classic quote from 2013 to the above list Jukes!!!

[Holz]

he is underpriced due his injuries as ric said 123 if you take out the last 6 games.

he was a great pickup and i agree he will drop abit, but from his real average of 123 not from 115.

im expecting 115-117 and with that he is a lock.

while your technically got the call correc,t you got luck with him getting injured. he didnt decline much at all.

[stew42]

So take out more than 25% of the season Holz? That line of reasoning can only go so far... especially as he still played 21 games.
That said, you cannot go wrong with the mighty GAJ, next year might be one of his last as an elite of DT (unless he ups his contested marking and becomes a gun fwd until he's 40)

[Holz]

So take out more than 25% of the season Holz? That line of reasoning can only go so far... especially as he still played 21 games.
That said, you cannot go wrong with the mighty GAJ, next year might be one of his last as an elite of DT (unless he ups his contested marking and becomes a gun fwd until he's 40)

im taking out the games where he was obviously carrying an injury.

if your trying to say he dropped to 115 because of him declining in age or changing role than its simply wrong.

you can predict for injuries but you need to assume that he stays fully fit next year and based on that i have him as low 120s last year.

[zeddyzed]

Such a biased right up, it's laughable... Ablett saw his average drop away due to injury, not age or overall decline, and to suggest otherwise is ridiculous. He was averaging close to 125 with 6 games to go, while "supreme dream teamer Stanton" was struggling to get a kick... and I recall you "predicting" Stanton was going to smash Ablett in points scored? No thread started in relation to this failed prediction, nostradamus?

Here's a prediction. In 2014 Stanton will start the year on fire, and end up averaging 105 (like every year).
Gary Ablett will average 120 easily if he stays fit.

[SydneyRox]

Well done Jukes, should have seen this write up coming!!

The only way Ablett will end the year at 105av will be injury related.

Just another point, his team makes getting more ball will more than likely help him as much as hinder.

Pies and Cats have shown you can easily have 3 guys with high avg's

Having said that, I think this year I will be waiting for an early price drop or two before loading up.

[Mailman the 2nd]

So take out more than 25% of the season Holz? That line of reasoning can only go so far... especially as he still played 21 games.
That said, you cannot go wrong with the mighty GAJ, next year might be one of his last as an elite of DT (unless he ups his contested marking and becomes a gun fwd until he's 40)

im taking out the games where he was obviously carrying an injury.

if your trying to say he dropped to 115 because of him declining in age or changing role than its simply wrong.

you can predict for injuries but you need to assume that he stays fully fit next year and based on that i have him as low 120s last year.

Holz is more or less right on this one. You can take just the last 3 games out and his average is over 115

It's pretty amazing how Jukes manages to make himself slightly relevant despite the thousands of times he's wrong

[Adamant]

You can't just take out games where he 'might' have been carrying an injury. Ablett usually picks up a couple of niggling injuries each year anyway. He averaged 115.

However, I can't see him falling as low as 105. Will be starting him again next year.

[pommyadam]

the plan this year was to start with him and then sidetrade to swan around the byes
shall be enforcing that rule next year :P

[Jay]

I will give everybody in this thread $20 if Ablett is averaging more than Stants come bye rounds.

Still haven't received my $20 after you made this insightful prediction!

[Vinny]

You can't just take out games where he 'might' have been carrying an injury. Ablett usually picks up a couple of niggling injuries each year anyway. He averaged 115.

However, I can't see him falling as low as 105. Will be starting him again next year.

Why not? It's like not taking injury effected games and sub games out.  It may be there score down on paper but it doesn't reflect their ability or the situation that caused the score. You should make your decision thinking he averaged 123 not 115 for 2013. Although I can see a slight decline, maybe 114-118.

[Jukes]

he is underpriced due his injuries as ric said 123 if you take out the last 6 games.

he was a great pickup and i agree he will drop abit, but from his real average of 123 not from 115.

im expecting 115-117 and with that he is a lock.

while your technically got the call correc,t you got luck with him getting injured. he didnt decline much at all.

I said before last season that injury would play a part in his downfall, which "happened". So either;
a) you don't blame injury and just admit he was a spud- I'm right
b) you blame injury like I said would happen- I'm right
Simples.