Richmond's 2014 Fixture

[Ricochet]

What Teejay's just said has basically been my whole argument since people started saying anything but top 4 in 2014 is a disappointment. There are like six teams vying for 4th. Yes, we have a draw which should aid our chances, but if just miss out, it mightn't necessarily be because we weren't good enough, but one of those other teams like the Pies, Cats or Roos played better.

They might be better teams but they have a significantly harder draw than Richmond. For predicting top 4/8/whateva, you have to look at how good the team is compared to those they play not the other good teams in that bracket.

If I was on the board (which Im clearly not lol) I would look at it this way.
- Richmond finished 5th this year
- With a young group of 22-30 of regular starting quality
- While also getting quality games into some first and second year players
- With a significantly easier draw in 2014
- With the addition of some recuits/depth, without losing any quality

As a board member I would expect improvement... and improvement is a top 4 finish for 2014. This would be the aim, missing that aim would be a fail (for 2014).

Winning a final would be improvement. Not making top 4 isn't the end of the world. Do you think they will make top 4 rico?

Not the end of the World but if a GF is the aim next year then history shows a top 4 is nearly a must.
Yeh i do man. Might not be the 4th best side next year but they should finish top 4.

[Ricochet]

And what's a "significantly harder draw" there's no such thing.

Take Geelong for example.
- 6 games against bottom 6: West Coast, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Melbourne, Greater Western Sydney.
- 8 games against top 6 (not including themselves): Hawks (x2), Fremantle (x2), Sydney, Collingwood, Port, Richmond
- 6 interstate trips
- and they're the only side not to play any bottom six teams twice.

Compared to Richmond
- 8 games against bottom 6: St Kilda (x2), Greater Western Sydney (x2), West Coast, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne.
- 7 games against top 6 (not including themselves): Sydney (x2), Port, Fremantle, Geelong, Hawks, Collingwood,
- 6 interstate trips
- and they only play one top 4 team twice

So 2 extra "easy games" against Saints and GWS (I count that as two extra W's), and play one less top 4 team.
A difference of 3 games = potentially 12 points and significantly easier draw for Richmond.

And what's a "significantly harder draw" there's no such thing. It's only a matter of a couple of games. And who's to say how the teams they play twice will be travelling at the time they play them? You would say a team has an easy draw if they play Gws the demons and the saints all twice, but it's not if at the time of next year all of those teams are in red hot form and go up the ladder. You beat who you come up against each week. There's no easy games in football. If they make top 4 it will be because they deserved it. If they don't it's not the end of the world. They will want to win at least 1 final this time around though for the season to be a pass

Agree it's hard to know how teams are travelling at the time and injuries, etc. But this is why its a prediction/goal/aim/ whateva we wanna call it.

[Nige]

Winning a final would be improvement. Not making top 4 isn't the end of the world.

If I was 'the board' as you put it Rico, as Teejay has said, I would say winning a final would be improvement. Last year, it was to make finals and we did that. This year, it's a near certainty that we will. However, regardless of whether we finish 1st, 4th or 8th... after what happened this year, I would think the 'aim' is to make finals (regardless of the position) and then win a final. Although, we do have a fairly generous draw, so if we didn't capitalise on that, I think it would be more of a disappointment than a fail.

[Ricochet]

Trust me the Club would not consider finishing 6-8th then winning a final as improvement. That would suggest you have lost against a lot of teams that are below Richmonds level.

[quinny88]

Trust me the Club would not consider finishing 6-8th then winning a final as improvement. That would suggest you have lost against a lot of teams that are below Richmonds level.

Depends what level you put Richmond on.
We're not on the elite level yet (Sydney, Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn)
We come in on the next level I think and really as far as I'm concerned it's a lottery at this stage for the next 4 positions between Richmond, Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Westcoast and Adelaide. Every one of those teams will expect to play finals but not all of them can. It's an extremely tight competition and I think even with our softer fixture we could finish anywhere between 4-8 and to be honest id be happy with anywhere from 4-6 provided we won a finals match.
I don't know any Richmond supporter that would class the season as a fail if we didn't make the top 4. Having a couple of extra winnable games than other teams helps but none of those top sides are going to be bothered. They get the toughest fixtures because they are the best teams. The competition this tough, a lot of people are calling it that North will finish top 4 too. They also have a very favourable fixture. There's not room for everyone.
I will be stoked if we make top 4 and let's be honest.. If we finish 4th were a chance for the flag as any top 4 team is

[Ringo]

As another supporter club I agree with you Quinny

All most clubs ask to improve on the previous year when climbing the ladder and in Richmonds case the next step is to win a final rather then finish in the top 4. If you finished top 4 and went out in 2 is that any more successful than finishing 5th and winning a final say.

As an aside I see it difficult for you to make Top 4 as the vagaries of the draw assist some clubs and disadvantage others.

[Nige]

I'm looking at this and seeing probably about six definite wins.

A few 50-50 games too though.

At the bye, we'll be 2-5.

We'll need about 12 wins to make the 8, so that means we need to win about 4 50-50 games along with the definite ones.

Also, big losses like this plus the likely inevitable one next week mean that our percentage is going to get probably raped, and when we're battling against a number of teams for about two spots in the 8, so I really can't see us making the 8.

That realisation absolutely kills me, and I should probably be more optimistic, but all things considered... it's not looking as peachy as we pictured it would be.

[Toga]

I wasn't ever confident on us making the 4 like people were so inclined to think, but I thought we would still be in line to make the 8. Our start to the season has been very very poor though and I don't think we deserve to be playing finals footy anyway, unless some big changes are made.

I like Dimma as a coach, think he's done great things for the club but he needs to adapt his gameplan to suit certain situations... We aren't going to get anywhere playing one-stream footy so I hope if we aren't going to play in September that we at least start developing a game plan that suits the team for the rest of the year and have another good tilt next year.

Not writing us off yet but things need to change if we are to challenge for a spot in September.

[Nige]

Jack was our only target today, and he missed a few chances.

Our defense did okay for the first half only.

The fringe guys had a mixed bag today.

Arnot's pressure wasn't what it has been, Lloyd was good without being great, Nippa had some good and bad moments, Ricky didn't have a good game, Astbury was very good, McDonough didn't have much impact as the sub, even Hampson didn't do much at all.

We've got three main guys to come back in over the next few weeks. Lids, Ivvy and Tross. Their influence will be critical. We're obviously a much better team with them in the side, but I'm afraid our poor start to the season has put us a bit too far behind the 8-ball to claw our way back.

The gap between our best players and the next lot is too big.

There's a chance we could sneak in to the 8, but the likelihood isn't great.