EXV predictions thread.

[Ziplock]

Can't wait to see my shower team get grilled lol.

well, I have done two top 8 teams now, so I suppose it's time for a bottom 8 :P

btw to the metal coaches- I made a mistake in your calculations- basically, I had cooney fielded at a 90 avg. rather than mclean, since in your team list he was so far down. Doesnt change your ranking, but boosts your score.

[Holz]

Can't wait to see my shower team get grilled lol.

well, I have done two top 8 teams now, so I suppose it's time for a bottom 8 :P

btw to the metal coaches- I made a mistake in your calculations- basically, I had cooney fielded at a 90 avg. rather than mclean, since in your team list he was so far down. Doesnt change your ranking, but boosts your score.

serbia was a bottom 8 team in 2012 and the bashers.

[Ziplock]

Team: Scotland Savage Sons
Coach: Whatlez
Predicted Ranking and Average Score: 10th, 1363

Scoring Breakdown including captain bonus:

Back   D Pearce   78
Back   Grima   76
Back   Brennan   80
Back   Ibbotson   72
Mid   Jack   200
Mid   Grigg   93
Mid   Jones   90
Mid   Boak   100
Ruck   Maric   90
Fwd   Wellingham   88
Fwd   Dahlhaus   85
Fwd   Fasolo   75
Fwd   Blair   75
Util   Prestia   78
Util   Young   83

Analysis:

The sons. A highly controversial team, in the sense that they appeared to be working in collusion with the Bashers, some highly suspect, and hotly debated trades between the two taking place in the off season. Whatlez has had his judgement and coaching ability doubted, at some point, by nearly every competitor in the league at some point, to be fair however, he has had one of the most difficult teams to work with- the sons have already had (3?) coaches since their initial draft, and every new coach brought to the team a new strategy and plan that, in the end, gave the Sons an exceptionally cobbled look.

Purely for interest however, I ran a quick calculation on the Sons possible team from last year, to see if these accusations were founded.... and I've found that, by my score, their 2012 squad would be scoring 22 ppg less than their 2013 one. So, despite what people have said about the Sons, there's been a small, but definite improvement on their best 15.

That being said, it's easy to see why this team is pushing for a bottom 4 finish. No legitimate captaincy option, a very weak defensive line, and being reliant on far too many 70 odd players- especially an overload on small forwards. That being said, with the youth the suns have in various positions, conca, wines, mayes, Matera, rohan, mckenzie etc. I wouldn't say the future is bleak- they're definitely going to prosper from a few high draft picks soon.

Back: Firstly, imo, Mckenzie should be taking the field in the best 4 here, but personal preference. This is pretty poor line- Pearce is, at absolute best, a player who can just scrape an 80 average. At best. I've honestly probably been generous with grima and brennans averages- brennans 29 and was clearly designated to lock down last season, while grima's 28 and's only played just over 50 games in his career. Ibbotson is a very average medium defender, although, to be fair, is still young enough that he could become worthwhile.

The cover isn't too amazing either past Mckenzie- who I personally rate, but honestly don't see him holding defence eligible long- currently he's just there since the ball's spend so much time thumping through GCs posts that they need someone like mckenzie, with his booming kick, to just clear it as far as possible up the field. When GC develop more and begin to contest games more often, I honestly see Mckenzie with his monster distance being significantly more valuable in the HF line. Geary is average, Addison is shocking. Suban, might, if he's lucky, make something of himself. Thurlow could be alright, while Corr and Frawley are both key backs. Basically the Sons defensive future depends on Thurlow, Suban and Geary... not very promising unfortunately.

Mids: Scotland kind of saves themselves here- Whilst I cant see Grigg ever going past a 100 average, he's definitely good enough to take the field (not good enough to trade for selwood though). Jones, Boak both show huge potential, and should be able to push 100+ soon, while Jack has already demonstrated what a beast he is.

The Bench is pretty decent as well- Conca, Wines, Mzungu, Mayes, Broomhead should all be solid enough, Armfield for cover along with Picken, it's a pretty decent line up. Could be scary in a few years, especially with prestia developing and young just providing some solid scores for a while.

Rucks: Maybe a little thin, Maric is a beast though, and Grundy and Witts are arguably the two best young rucks in the system, so I'd rate this as a solid line up.

Fwds: Definitely light here- betting on wellingham to maintain fwd eligibility in a new team is a gamble, while pretty much the rest of the team, Fasolo, Blair, Dahlhaus, Matera, Ballantyne, Nahas, Pretrenko are all small forwards, with only simpson, rohan, pettard and may being medium, and most of them having various issues of their own.

On top of that, personally, I don't rate Blair much at all as a Dter, and can see him, as I've shown here, having a slip in average. The fact is in general, that very, very few small forwards average 80+... recently, there's boomer, and chapman (he's a nuggett though, hardly small) and that's about it.

Strengths: The midfield scoring combined with it's youth is definitely a strength for the sons. Hopefully they'll have enough young mids fire that they can trade off one or two for a decent defender/ forward. The rucks are a strength as well, having the two young pies is a definite bonus, and Maric as I've said, is an A grade ruck by himself.

Weaknesses: Definitely the backs. So many issues with this. I would say the forwards as well, but with a bit of luck, they could still be half decent, if mckenzie becomes a forward and mayes develops properly. The defensive line definitely needs desperate work asap, that's what I'd be focusing on next draft.

How to win the flag: I really, really, really don't see this happening this year. Look, if Brennan goes back to mid 80s, Grima, Mckenzie, Pearce all break out likewise while Jack goes 110, Grigg, Jones, Boak, Prestia, Young go 100+ and a couple of the fwds scrape 90, then maybe.

This year though- highly improbable.

[picker_man]

Wow these wright ups are awesome Zip :) A few predictions im not 100% sure on but they were predicted over what i thought they would average so it all seems very fair so far and no one could argue with your comments imo, have all been spot on. really enjoyed reading them :D

[Justin Bieber]

Thanks, but my predictions on players are higher than yours, that's why I recruited them. I agree with your backs analysis and what is your opinion on McKenzie's scoring ability?

I disagree with your Geigg and Jones ratings. Fasolo will srely motive more than 2-3 and same with Prestia.

Also itch McKenzie, he is getting built up to be a great alf back flanker for his career and Thurlow will be a defender and solid scorer.

I see the SOS averaging close to 1400 as some of your predictions are lower than my personal opinion.

[Ziplock]

honestly, unfortunately I cant see him ever being a true premium, 80+ player for sure, maybe even in the 90s, but his role seems to be thumping it long, and because of that I can't see him scraping the 100 mark. Maybe at HF if he's absolutely shredding it, fact is, you have a bloke he can kick a goal from 70m out. That's too valuable to leave in defence.

I rate jones personally, Grigg, not so much. Fasolos a small forward, 80 is about his limit. Prestia could pump it up, but it's a bit touch and go, personally I dont think he'll break out this year.

[PowerBug]

Sweden will come 4th last in 2013. Greece, Lez and the Bashers will finish below us. Bison will win the comp becuase CrowsFan is the smartest guy on the forum.

how about spoon winers to flag favourite?

Close, 3rd place losing to the Bison in the Prelim (bad side of the draw) The Bashers lose in the other prelim to GAJ and Swan and then get destroyed in the final.

Wow that's big praise PB! :o don't know what would make you think I'm the smartest though...

Neither do I, after all you do go for the crows....

[Justin Bieber]

honestly, unfortunately I cant see him ever being a true premium, 80+ player for sure, maybe even in the 90s, but his role seems to be thumping it long, and because of that I can't see him scraping the 100 mark. Maybe at HF if he's absolutely shredding it, fact is, you have a bloke he can kick a goal from 70m out. That's too valuable to leave in defence.

I rate jones personally, Grigg, not so much. Fasolos a small forward, 80 is about his limit. Prestia could pump it up, but it's a bit touch and go, personally I dont think he'll break out this year.

Thanks anyways. I see most of my players averaging about 5 more than most you wrote there cept maybe the defenders. I did recruit for the players I see improving and yeah I'm not going for next year, I have great future with Wines, Mayes, Grundy and many others.

[Justin Bieber]

Sons:

D.Pearce 82
N.Grima 75
J.Brennan 82
G.Ibbotson 72

K.Jack 105
S.Grigg 100
N.Jones 94
T.Boak 96

I.Maric 93

S.Wellingham 92
L.Dahlhaus 83
A.Fasolo 79
J.Blair 81

D.Prestia 84
C.Young 82

Around 1405. That's what I think of my team. My opinion and probably overrating a little.

McKenzie could replace Ibbo and ave 80 easy.

[Ziplock]

you're being way too hopeful with pearce. I actually had boak rated higher than you, jones is achievable, but I think a bit lower is more likely. I still dont see prestia as ready to break out yet and marics had an interrupted pre-season. I'm not sure on wellingham.  I'd be extremely surprised if blair or fasolo scored that high.

[Ziplock]

that being said, even by your count you're still in 10th place :P

[Adamant]

Prestia averaged 81 unsubbed. Whilst I don't think he will 'fully breakout' this year, I am expecting an average of around 85.

[Justin Bieber]

I rate Fasolo. He is 20 or 21 now and he averaged 73. I think he can push 80 easy.

[Ziplock]

fasolos 21 next year, the major concern with him is that he gets played as a small forward, and, especially with the return of ball, I dont see him getting much more midfield time. As for prestia, sub concerns is always something that has to be considered in fantasy football.

[Justin Bieber]

fasolos 21 next year, the major concern with him is that he gets played as a small forward, and, especially with the return of ball, I dont see him getting much more midfield time. As for prestia, sub concerns is always something that has to be considered in fantasy football.

Prestia only subbed because of injury. No injury = no vests.

Fasolo is yeah 21 this* year haha and Collingwood are going to be a strong side for many years so the ball will be pumped to him a lot.