Premiership Window

[Junktimer]

Came across a brilliant article today in the Prospectus.  It discussed reasons why Geelong's premiership window may be shut.

Observe:

In 2011, these are how many players 29 or older each club has.

Geelong- 11
Sydney- 7
Bulldogs- 6
Collingwood- 5
St. Kilda- 5
Brisbane- 4
Fremantle- 4
Essendon- 3
Port Adelaide- 3
West Coast- 3
Adelaide- 2
Carlton- 2
North- 2
Hawthorn- 2
Melbourne- 1
Richmond- 1
Gold Coast- 1

If all 11 Geelong players 29 or over were to play a game this season, which is likely, as they are all regulars, it would be the most by a team since Fitzroy in 1946.  They finished 8th out of 12.

Milburn- 33
Scarlett- 31
Mooney- 31
Ottens- 31
Wojcinski- 30
Ling- 30
Podsiadly- 29
Enright- 29
Chapman- 29
Corey- 29
Hunt- 29

Since 1999, there have been seven teams with eight or more of these players with an average ladder drop of 4.43 places.

Here are some examples of ladder drops:

Club, 29-yo, season, ladder
Sydney, 8, 2009, 6th to 12th
Melbourne, 9, 2007, 7th to 14th
Port Adelaide, 8, 2006, 8th to 12th
Brisbane, 8, 2006, 11th to 13th
Port Adelaide, 8, 2005, 1st to 8th
Carlton, 8, 2001, 2nd to 5th
Sydney, 9, 2000, 8th to 10th

So will Geelong beat the odds and fight on?  That is the question.  Would love Bunyip's opinion and other Cat fans on their future.

[dylsta05]

not a cats fan, but i think they will slowly drop down year by year

[Master Q]

Nice pick-up JT

[bunyip]

It's pretty hard to argue against those figures. Geelong are an extraordinary team, but history has a way of repeating itself.
I'm sure the coaching staff have done the math and come up with the same result.
This will probably be the last season for a few of our older players.
I hope they are given a chance of retiring gracefully. My thread on our "Young guns " probably inspired this thread, so what we may see this year is the start of the transition between the old and new Geelong. :)

[Milton]

Milburn- 33 .. won't play a heap of games, bit player in 2011
Scarlett- 31 .. still a great player, no problems
Mooney- 31 .. same as Milburn
Ottens- 31 .. he's a ruckman, they don't come good until they hit their 40's
Wojcinski- 30 .. runs faster then most 18 year olds
Ling- 30 .. slow and could struggle unless he gets superfit in which case he will be marginally faster than slow
Podsiadly- 29 .. how many second year players have been 29yo's ?
Enright- 29 .. move him up to the wing so he can use his run
Chapman- 29 .. one of the best going around, no problems
Corey- 29 .. had an ordinary injury riddled 2010 so big test in 2011
Hunt- 29 .. still a handy player who does his job

[ossie85]

I really question Ling, Mooney and Ottens. Wouldn't expect much from Hunt or Wojo either. I think Milburn, Scarlett and Enright are evergreen stars, but an injury could be critical.

Pods is old, but only 1 year in the system...

Chappy's a star, and I hope Corey has 1 more year left in him



The 5 at the Pies are Chris Tarrant (a recruit), Ben Johnson (could be pushed out), Leon Davis (has been pushed out), Darren Jolly (big boy probably has 3 years left) and Leigh Brown (who has a career best in 2010).

[Fletch74]

Nice work JT. Interesting stats, just shows that age does eventually catch up with you...

Will be interesting to see if the Cats can defy the odds?

[bunyip]

Scotty said in the Addy just last week that we should not underestimate the challenges ahead of Geelong this season. This is exactly what he was talking about. My guess is that he will give the current team one more chance for a premiership, and if they fail, there will be a cull, and it's gonna hurt. If they win this season, they will not play next season anyway, they'll be drunk for 2 years. ;D

[Milton]

If they win this season, they will not play next season anyway, they'll be drunk for 2 years. ;D

Exactly .. GWS will come in and we'll take a year off to sober up .. unfortuantely we'll have byes in DT in 2012 as well :)

[nas]

Scotty said in the Addy just last week that we should not underestimate the challenges ahead of Geelong this season. This is exactly what he was talking about. My guess is that he will give the current team one more chance for a premiership, and if they fail, there will be a cull, and it's gonna hurt. If they win this season, they will not play next season anyway, they'll be drunk for 2 years. ;D

LOL & so will some of the supporters just quietly eh

[Damoz Merry Men]

A decent half of those Players, still have their talent's and skill's of the Game, even though most get injured a lot, or at least once a season.

E.G.: Chappy's Hammy. HAHA

obviously, as they retire, were going to get Young and NEW Recruits, but being the Oldest Team, and Western Bulldogs isn't far behind, we have done a solid effort, to our credit.