The Watchlist - 2023 Edition

[Mat0369]

New season means I new thread. There are a number of players across each line that will be worth considering. I will try and keep it all condensed here along with my teams

I'll get through this slowly starting with each line. I'll go through and start updating it tomorrow when I get some time. I'll get the basic posts in with a player for each one then add to it

I'm not going to include a number of rookie options  yet, I might add those later

[Mat0369]

Backs

Sinclair - The number one defender at the end of last season, but there is a new coach, with a new game plan. Being at his peak price I would probably hold off and pick one of the other available options. It would be hard to see him build on that 113 average which makes him that upgrade target if he keeps it up.

Sicily - Jumped 8 ppg on his previous season high to 113. 6 scores under the ton, 2 of those under 90 and 0 under 80. He eliminated the clunker and saw a career best return. I can't see him improving on last season and feel he is more likely to regress. I feel the top end is super high for PPG for defenders compared to previous seasons and that number may come down. The 107 guys may be better picks as they'll be more likely to hold their prices so he is a pass for me.

Stewart - His first half of the year was insane. Was averaging 120 leading into the Dogs game, looked unobtainable with 2 scores over 170 and then put up a clunker vs the Dogs. A few weeks later he was suspended and then had another terrible score late in the year vs the Saints. I really like him as a starting pick this year though. He has shown he has an insane ceiling and without the extremely poor scores he could improve on his average. Averaging 107 and 109 in the two previous seasons you would think he stays around that mark. One of three guys I'd consider for my D1 spot.

Doc - What a return to form for Doc! There is talk he could be moving into a midfield role, particularly due to his success there late in the year when the Blues midfield was depleted and Walsh expected to miss a large chunk of time through injury. When Doc has played around the clearances he can be an extremely damaging player. If he gets moved to the wing the ball begins to bypass him as a link up player and it could see his scores regress. With a fit and firing Doc I think you can expect a floor of 100 at worst and a ceiling in the 115 range. A lot will depend on role but he does seem like a safe bet with a really solid scoring history.
EDIT: Looked to play a lot of HB through the preseason with small stints in the midfield. Looked amazing in both roles so it would be tough to not pick him at this point.

Dawson - Over the last three seasons Dawson has seen his average climb from 85 to 101 to 109.5. His back half of 2021 launched into an amazing 2022. He scored below 90 three times showing he has a high floor and from round 8 to round 16 he didn't drop below the ton with 5 scores over 130. This sort of consistency may keep his price high through the season and would be a reason I'd try to lock him in early in the D1-D2 range. I think ideally it may be worth trying to start 2 of Stewart, Doc and Dawson.

Hurn - He isn't one I would consider at his age and with WC rebuilding, having said that, his numbers are staggering from R7 last year. He did miss 3 games with injury, but he only dropped below the ton twice (99 and 71) with an average of 113 through that period. While he wouldn't be a starting pick in my side, he may be a great pick post his bye as an upgrade target.

Witherden - Scoring isn't the problem, defensive ability is what's keeping him from playing consistent footy and sees him only play 12 games for a terrible WC team. Pass

Brayshaw - My fave player in the 550k price range. He moved into a permeant mid role late in the season and smashed it. It's a small sample size, but I believe the permanent move happened around when he signed his contract extension.  He went on to score 123, 113, 113 and 83 in those final 4 rounds. His scores from R11 onwards were still super consistent with 3 under the ton and a low of 77. He averaged 106.5 in that window which would put him in that D6 range. I currently have him in my side at D2
EDIT: I didn't catch the pre-season game but it looks like he has made the move back to halfback. He will still be a decent scorer, but I would prefer to pick him at his price as a mid.

Dale - Increased his average from 95ish in 2021 to 102ish in 2022, will continue to see the majority of kick-outs and Caleb Daniel is being touted for a midfield role that should see him float around HB and continue to be that distributor. He could up his PPG but I still prefer other options around this price point.

Saad - Career high average for Saad, personally I wouldn't pick him and would prefer to pony up the extra cash for one of Stewart/Doc/Dawson or go with Brayshaw.

Vlastuin - The other player in this bracket that I think has the potential to break out, but the risk may outweigh the reward. I traded him in late last year for him to go on and burn me. The number one problem with Vlastuin is availability. Going back to 2016, this is how many games he has played each season. 19, 13, 19, 21, 16, 12 and 16. While he missed only one game in 2019 and one game in 2020, he has missed 10 and 6 the last two years. He was on an absolute tear from his bye he averaged 101.3, but he missed one game and got injured in another that he scored 43. Taking out the injury score he averaged 107.8 which puts him in top 6 territory. 

Houston - I really liked him last year as someone that could take the next step if he could get through the season injury free. He ended up averaging 107 heading into the bye, dropping under 90 twice with scores of 83 and 86 and four 120+ scores. He wasn't great down the stretch with a low of 40 against the Cats where was concussed and also missed a game against the Pies.  He is one I will keep an eye on through the season and if he can be picked up on the cheap he will be a good D6.

Hall - Injured already, body is a risk and I don't know if Clarkson will play him when fit with other options down back that may have moved ahead of him

Rich - Not for me this year, he seemed off the pace from the top defenders last year, is a year older and it's hard to see the scope to get into that top end. Maybe later in the year if he drops in price as an upgrade target.

Ryan - Missed the pre-season games with a back injury and is a bit of a yo-yo with the way he scores. Was an absolute mess to start last year, traded him out and went on a nice run. He is a player that can hit a cold streak and burn you or a hot streak and burn you. I think I'd rather stay away with better options around.

Cumming - He was a surprise packet last year, he averaged 109 through the first 8 rounds, 105 at round 13 and then hit a downward slope with scores of 46, 64, 62 and 79 mixed in with 5 scores over 90 (3 tons) that saw his average drop to 94.7 to end the year. Part of that could have been due to how bad GWS were at the end of the season. He is one to consider, but with Whitfield looking to return to HB and possibly take a number of kick-ins may see his floor drop.

Daicos - Pegged to go into the midfield and play more forward of centre. It also saw him draw a tag in a pre-season game. Total CBA's for Daicos in that game was a whopping 2 and it is pretty hard for a second year player to take an epic jump in scoring. I personally would pass as I think I'd rather pay the extra for a proven gun or grab someone like Taranto in the forward line who should be a top 6 forward at the end of the season.

Redman - A career high 92.8 for Redman last year. He has a monster ceiling but puts up way too many scores in the 70's and lower. He is a hard pass

Lloyd - The man has been a SC gem since 2018. Last year he struggled and lost the stranglehold that he had on the kick-ins that also saw his average drop significantly. 2021 Lloyd had a totlas of 133 KI's and played on 131 times. The next best was Dawson with 74 KI's and PO 61 times. Last year Lloyd had 119 and played on 113 times. Blakey was next best with 100 out of 100. If the numbers start to trend back towards Lloyd than he should see an increase in his average, but right now I would rather wait to grab him as an upgrade target.

Ridley - He is one of the best field kicks in the league. He also hasn't built on his amazing 2020 season which is disappointing. Part of that is role as they have had him lock down a little bit more with guys like Hind playing in the same back half. He is also taking far less of the kick-ins compared to his 2020 season with Redman and Hind chopping into that number last season. He is one that wouldn't shock me if he was top 6, I just can't pick him at this point.

Ellis - He will play a lot on the wing and has an insane ceiling at times. He normally backs that up with a clunker and a hamstring injury. He is one I will look at as potential bench coverage if he drops enough in price after said injury and clunker.

Himmelberg - Playing down back he could be D1, that is how good the potential is. However he has been moved into the forward line so they can ease Cadman into the side and to give Hogan a chop out. Easy pass as a forward but one to monitor if he does swing back later in the season as an upgrade target.

Daniel - There was talk of Daniel moving into the midfield this year which made him an interesting option. Looking at the stats from the weekend it appears he was in his customary HBF role. It is tough for me to comment on the Dogs pre-season game having missed it and to know where he played for the majority of the game but I would pass right now.

McDonald - He has gained the captaincy and will be the general in defence for the Roos. He will split the kick-in duties with Ziebell but I can't see him making the jump into the elite territory. On my list of potential upgrade options if he does go on a nice run

Duncan - He can rack up the ball and playing loose across HB will suit him. It is a role he had late in the year and he will be able to rack up a lot of cheap touches and points. Not one I would start with but an upgrade target if the price is right.

McGrath - The move to HB could be a fruitful one. McGrath can play both ways unlike Hind and can win a ton of the ball. Sooner or later you think he would break through the barrier to premium status, but it is hard to pick someone on unfulfilled potential so it is a wait and see

Atkins - He appears to be the potential bolter in the backline. He averaged 93 after the bye not including the sub score of 41 in the last round of the year and has become a midfield mainstay late in the season. Against the Lions he attended the most CBA's along with Dangerfield with 14 a piece. The next best was 11 from Guthrie, Bruhn and Parfitt. He doesn't win a huge amount of the ball but he tackles and wins it in contested situations giving him a high floor. He could push towards averaging the ton this year which would put him in that tier below the top options from last season. I am expecting that number to also drop a little as it seems abnormal to have 5 defenders above 600k and in the top 25 overall scorers.

Salem - A thyroid problems puts a line through him. I had him in my team up until the health concerns which have him side-lined indefinitely. He is definitely worth considering when he returns depending on how many trades you have available and how he performs. I had him as a fringe stepping stone due to his price. The knee injury in round 1 last year has him at a massive discount and I probably would have started the season with him if he was fit.   

Impey - Last season was completely destroyed by injury for Impey. He averaged 90 the year prior and appears to be back in that SC friendly role as a rebounding HBF for the Hawks. He butchered the ball against the Pies but he looked pretty good out there and could bounce back this year. He is a nice price for a stepping stone, however I feel a lot of people will overlook him in favour of Yeo or similarly priced options on the other lines. I really like him as a pick as a medium risk with high upside for his price. 

Day - Also in the mid 300k range, he appears to be playing a lot more as midfield option in the centre square and drifting forward to provide a scoring option. He has all the tools to be a great SC player down the track, but he may not win the easy ball when he is forward for the Hawks. A slightly higher risk than Impey and could bring similar returns with a 90ish average. One I will keep an eye on through the season but probably won't start with.

Yeo - Finally fit and at a bargain price of 337k has seen Yeo in a lot of teams. He will be rotating through HB and the middle for the Eagles along with Shuey. I think this is also to ease the pressure on their bodies from playing full time midfield minutes. My worry with Yeo is he can butcher the ball so more uncontested possessions may not translate favourably to SC points. He has been in my team for the majority of the pre-season but he has slid out over the weekend as I played around with my structure.

Haynes - It has been 3 seasons since Haynes was SC relevant. He has been thrown around by the previous coach and struggled with injuries in that time. He appears to have a role down back again, but he already copped a knock in the pre-season game vs the Suns. 14 touches and a great DT to SC ratio is a positive, although I would probably stay away at this point.

Clark - The promise of Clark playing meaningful midfield minutes has felt like something I have heard every off-season. The stats from the pre-season game vs the Bombers on the weekend. He had 7 CBA's which put him behind Steele, Crouch and Bytel. The highest was Marshall with 16 and Steele with 15 in a low scoring game. He finished with 24 touches and 78 SC points. He is in the mix for that third starting mid at the bounce with Bytel having 10 to his 7, I do think the risk probably outweighs the reward right now. He is one I would look at as an early correction trade if he does kill it. I don't rate the Saints this year and other than Steele, Sinclair and Marshall I wouldn't consider many of their players as being SC relevant. Pass right now.

Bowes - In the practice game he played a whole lot of midfield and dominated by all reports. He missed the game against the Lions on the weekend and I question if he is best 22 or sitting in the fringes heading into the season. He is a proven scorer as a HBF and would have more opportunity in the midfield, the worry is if he plays every week or gets dropped. Bruhn is probably ahead of him right now so it's a pass and a potential corrective trade.

Boyd - He is one I would have pegged as a chance to get into the Carlton backline before he injured his foot. He is still one I would look at later in the season. Cowan and Cincotta may both play round 1 with Williams out for the season

Jones - An intercept king that struggles at times by foot. He will be best 22 for the Dogs and at his price is quite tempting for JS alone. I currently have him at D4 in my side but I might slide him to D5 depending on the available rookies.

Stocker - The Saints picked him up with a role in mind. I watched him a bit against the Dees and he was awful. It looks like he bounced back vs the Bombers but I am unsure of where he was playing. He may be another to consider based on price and potential output. I would pass right now.

Coffield - Popular when the comp opened due to his price, doesn't look to be in the 22 right now, easy pass.

[Mat0369]

Mids

Laird - An absolute beast last season. He finds the ball consistently and dropped under the ton twice all last season (one was his first game back from injury). The question is can he back up such an epic season or was it a one off and he regresses? He is an accumulator so I think he will still have a high floor, but the risk is there over a similarly priced Oliver who has averaged over 120 the last three years.

Oliver - Over the last 3 seasons Oliver has averaged 122.2, 123.5 and 127.1. He wins a ton of contested ball and has had 2 scores under 80 in the 3 seasons which is just insane. Petracca will help draw the tag away from him in games letting him ruck up the ball and the addition of Grundy will give him a dominant ruck at all stoppages. The only potential downside is the Dees want to rotate more players through the middle and have flagged that with Kossi going into 42% of the CB's against the Tigers.

Neale - He is one flying under the radar and a little underappreciated. He has averaged over 120 in 3 of the last 4 seasons and doesn't look like slowing down. I don't think the addition of Dunkley hurts him as he will be an upgrade over Lyons and not allow teams to focus on Neale at stoppages. My structure only allows for one of Oliver, Neale and Laird and I currently have OIiver in as my M1, but starting with Neale could be a shrewd pick if Oliver spends less time in the middle and Laird regresses back to a 110ish player.

Miller - He is one I had locked in my team right up until the hamstring injury. Originally it was said to be precautionary but he missed both practice games and I think I would like to wait for him to shake off some early rust when he is healthy. He will be in my first batch of midfield upgrade targets.

Mills - He has steadily increased his average the last 3 seasons and was the number 4 overall mid in total points. He is only in 5% of teams and is sliding under the radar. I think he is a nice POD but in that price range I don't want to be punting on a guy that has had two seasons over 110, even if he is heading into his prime with room for improvement.

Bont - Bont had a quiet but consistent start to last season before exploding in round 18 and 19 with scores of 181 and 161. Spending a lot of time forward and nursing an injury he was decent and lacked the spectacular scores. A likely full time move back into midfield provides a lot of upside for Bont and he seems like a solid and possibly under-priced starting option.

Macrae - In 2021, Jack Macrae had 14 scores over 120 with another 4 over 110. Last year he had 8 scores over 120 (4 in the first 5 rounds) and 2 over 110. He moved onto the wing at times last year and it saw his ceiling drop significantly. With Dunkley out of the midfield rotation how do the Dogs replace the output and does he move into the middle full time again? Looking at the game against North it looks like the Dogs went for a combo of Libba, Bont and Smith with Macrae receiving the 4th most CBA's . While he was 4th, he only had one less than Smith and 2 less than Bont. It does look like the Dogs will split the load pretty evenly. In the first 4 games of last year he was the number 1 Dogs mid for CBA's. I think the risk is worth the reward with Macrae as he can provide a captain option and should have a high floor regardless of where he plays.

Petracca - I  feel like Trac is a prime upgrade target. While he has amazing scoring potential with a huge ceiling, he can put up a clunker which will see him drop nicely in price making it easy to trade a rookie to him. I won't start him but I will keep an eye on him

Merrett - He had a bit of a roller coaster year last season. There was an injury, he took some time to bounce back, hit some amazing form before a back to back lull in rounds 21 and 22 where he scored 71 and 73 before finishing with a 150. He knows how to find the ball, has averaged over 110 the last 3 seasons and has a high ceiling. I prefer other mids over him but he could be a nice POD that's only in 5% of teams.

Brayshaw - I picked him as a breakout contender last year and he delivered. 8th in total points, he had 8 scores over 125 and a high of 189. He will only continue to get better and should have another 110+ season. I prefer him as a potential upgrade target this year.

Hewett - My personal fave as a left field top 8 option. He dropped under the ton last season in 3 out of 15 games (all after the back injury) and was extremely consistent with a low of 87. He has looked amazing through the pre-season, will play a hell of a lot through the midfield, won't attract a tag and I can see him going 115+. I will go out on a limb and say he averages closer to 120 than 110 this year. I am trying to find ways to get him into my side but I currently have Steele at M2 with the value he provides. I wish I could start all of Oliver, Steele, Macrae and Hewett but just can't afford it with my structure.

Cripps - A huge bounce back campaign for Cripps last year. He averaged over 110 for the first time since 2019. He is an interesting pick because he has proven to have a higher ceiling than last year, but it was also a career best considering he won the Brownlow. He does have scope to improve his average, but there are so many good options in that 4-15 range that it is hard to separate them

Parish - Another player I really liked last season, an injury saw him miss a number of games and kill his average thanks to the 51 against the Blues while playing on one leg. Minus the injury game he averages 115 and only dropped under the ton 3 times with a low of 87. Like Merrett I think he can be a sneaky POD for anyone that does start him, I would like to see how the Bombers midfield does shape up with Shiel healthy, Merrett, Setters, Caldwell and a group of others returning from injury. Wait and see for me.

Steele - With averages of 122 and 126 in 2020 and 2021, Steele was a disappointment last year due to his scoring and the injury. He is one I would pick to bounce back and the Ross Lyon game plan may suit his contested style of play. I currently have him at M2 as he priced for a 110 average and can push that to 120+ by the end of the season. He is only in 12% of teams which also makes him an attractive option as a POD.

Kelly - Another player I am high on heading into the season, Kelly has returned to the middle on a full time basis and looks to be in fantastic form through the pre-season. In the past the Giants have had a number of midfield depth that has forced some of their guns to play out of position. Their CBA's will consist mainly of Kelly, Cogs, Green and Perryman. I can see Kelly bouncing back to a 115 average this season and he is priced nicely in the 105 range. The only worry with Kelly has been durability, but he has played 21 games in 2022 and 2021. It's hard to fit all these guys into the midfield so he is a wait and see prospect even though I would love to start him.

Wines - I don't see improvement from Wines and think he will hover around this mark. Maybe a nice cheap option if injury strikes but a pass.

Boak - Father time may finally catch up to Boak, probably should have received DPP last year but the Port mid to own is Rozee (as a forward). A pass for me

Libba - Pass as a pure mid but I'd be curious to see the numbers once the season kicks off. If he gets DPP again I would lock him in as a forward, one to watch through the year but no as a straight mid.

Parker - A fantastic option when he had DPP last season, Parker has been the perennial close but not close enough in the premium mid range. He still has a big ceiling but I think they look to move some of the responsibility away from him and give more to Gulden, Warner and Mills in the middle. If he gets DPP he will tempt, but I won't start with him

LDU - One pegged as the breakout contender. He jumped from an 85 average to a 101 average. He could take the next step this season as he won't be short on opportunity and has the tools to be an elite SC mid. Personally I would hold off and would rather pick Green for a similar price or take the punt on Tom Mitchell bouncing back.

Tom Green - He is the one I am seeing in a lot of teams this year. He started last year on fire before fading away. He will have a lot of opportunity, the question is can he score consistently week in, week out. At his price the reward outweighs the risk, however there is someone else to consider at this price range....

Mitchell - His worst average since 2014, Mitchell was played out of position as the Hawks looked towards the future. Looking at his last 5 years of footy, Mitchell has averaged the following. 117, 113.5, 129.1, 118.9 and 104. He missed 2019 with injury and last years 96 seems far too low for one of the best ball winning mids in the comp. The question is how does he fit in at the Pies? Collingwood will likely rotate the guys in their centre set up. De Goey is their most explosive mid and will start there more often than not. They also have Crisp, Adams, Pendles and the  Daicos bros who will rotate through there. Mitchell may not be the player he was in his Brownlow year, but Collingwood would love him to be able to rack up a ton of clearances and dish off to De Goey, Crisp and Daicos bursting out of the middle. He is one I am considering, but the Pies will throw a lot of bodies into that CBA rotation capping his average. I think he may sit more around that 105 range than reach the heights of 115 from seasons gone by. He is a good low risk, high reward option that at worst would be an amazing M8.

Lyons - He was an elite SC pick prior to last season, fell off and may not even be in the best 22 this year. Easy pass.

Simpkin - Butchers the ball which has held him back from being a 110+ player. Probably not for me at this point.

Anderson/Rowell - Both these guys will eventually break out to be SC stars. I think we're about 1 year away from that happening. Both on my watch list for next season but a pass this year.

Adams - A bargain at his price of 442k, I still can't pick him due to his health and at that price he probably has to be a keeper. It looks like the Pies plan on lining him up in the forward line at times this year, I don't know how that will go considering he is poor by foot at times. Pass

Sloane - Another former ex gun, Sloane has moved to the wing to try and save his body as he comes back from yet another injury. Priced nicely, but I can't pick him. I feel like Berry might be the random Crow to own this year making Sloane a pass.

Ed Curnow - If he slotted back on the wing he would be a nice stepping stone. Playing on the HFF it's a pass. Not good enough by foot to be delivering it inside 50 as a hit up target.

Setters - Playing inside mid for the Dons he could live up to his potential. I remember watching his under 18 highlights and he was one I loved when Carlton picked him up. He struggled with is body and then 2 coaches later it looks like both had lost faith in him. I don't think I would start with him, but a potential corrective trade if he starts hot.

Hopper - He will be in and around the ball lot for Richmond and has averaged in the 90's 3 of the last 4 years. Extremely under-priced and I would expect at the minimum he averages 90 for the season. This makes him a perfect stepping stone and I have him locked in my side.

Sheed - Another popular mid price option, I can't see him bouncing back to a 90 average so it is a pass. He will likely have a nice run at some point to make some dollars, but I prefer other options. No for me

Worpel - A butcher by foot and he struggled to be in their best 22 the last couple of years. He looks to have dibs on one of the midfield spots but I don't like his use by foot. Maybe in DT/AF, no for me in SC.

Bergman - I believe one of the wing spots at Port is now his after a couple of dominant practice matches. He has looked like a beast running through the midfield and I would love to pick him but can just pick one mid price mid and that is Hopper.

Wanganeen-Milera - Another I don't can't pick but I feel could be a steal, he looks to be playing HBF for the Saints and vulturing the kick-ins. He could be a surprise packet and a fantastic stepping stone

Cooper Stephens - One to consider early with the lack of depth in the Hawks midfield but he hasn't played in the pre-season games and I think that hurts him with a number of young Hawks staking claims for spots in the midfield. I would say he is outside the 22 at the moment but is one to watch if he does break in later as a sideways/downgrade target on the bubble if he produces.

Callaghan - The wing role is his for the taking and he looked amazing against the Suns on the weekend. He is an awkward price at 244k, but he looks capable of taking  a big step this year and if the rookies are thin he is worth locking in.

[Mat0369]

Rucks

Gawn - Has been the number one guy year after year, but can he be the top dog again? I'm inclined to say no. I think with the Grundy trade, his age and the state of his body he is due to play a lot more forward this year. While he will be fresher for his stints on the ball, the split won't favour him and being ahead of the ball instead of behind it will see his scores drop. Add in his questionable goal kicking and I think he will see a drop to his average. Probably a pass for me at this point.

Witts - The number 1 ruck in total points last season, Witts was a bargain buy to start the year. He rewarded owners with the highest average of his career at 109.9 and played every game. He has played every game in 2018, 2019 and 2020 before the injury in 2021 proving he is a durable option. He had never averaged over the ton prior to last year, but has a really great midfield roving his hitout work with Touk, Rowell and Anderson at his feet. I don't know if he can maintain his average and in the past the top ruck spots have been a revolving door if your name hasn't been Cox, Sandilands, Goldstein, Gawn and Grundy. Ideally I would like to wait and see if he can back it up, but this year feels like one where you won't have the luxury of a standout mid price stepping stone. A potential sideways trade down the track.

English - He started last year as a dominant force averaging 121.6 through the first 5 rounds, then the wheels fell off with an injury that saw him miss 5 games. He missed another 2 games later in the year, and when he returned in round 17 he went on to crack the ton twice more for the season and average 89.3 down the stretch. I don't trust him enough to stay healthy with a couple of niggles in the pre-season already, add in the poor run at the end of last year and I feel there may be better options.

Darcy - A breakout average of 118 in 2021 backed up with a reasonable 102, Darcy is one of the more intriguing ruck options. The Dockers played both Darcy and Meek at times and he now has Luke Jackson in the side. Does Jackson cut into his scoring? Looking at how the Dees were able to manage the Gawn/Jackson combo I would say that Darcy is one of the safer rucks sharing the load. It helps that they're happy to throw Jackson around as a 'unicorn' type player. The worry is health for Darcy who missed a lot of games early in his career but only missed 1 game in 2021 (round 1) and 3 earlier in the season last year off an interrupted pre-season. He is the guy I am leaning towards as my R1. The upside is huge.

ROB - One of the few sole rucks in the competition, ROB provides a high volume option. My worry is that he has been dropped in 2021 and 2022 and is not filling the role the coaches are asking him to fill. A best case average of 105 won't put him in the top rung of guys and may not play 22 games based on form so it's an easy no.

Nic Nat - In doubt from round 1 which already puts a line through him. Even though he only played 8 games last year he is also priced at the 97 average which is also disappointing. I would be tempted to pick him at that price if he was fit, the fact he is unlikely to play R1 makes it a lot easier to resist that temptation.

Blicavs - He can play just about anywhere on the park with his running ability. I don't think he will average enough to be a top end ruck and can be used as a Mr Fix It at any point creating uncertainty around his role. He may be in the top handful of options in total points, but average wise I see him a couple of pegs below.

Nank - The number 3 ruck in total points last season, Nank had a decent season last year. Where he killed his owners, scores of 58 in round 1, 37 in round 17 and 49 in round 19. Soldo is back healthy and the Tigers may also look to play two rucks in games this year which may also hurt his output. I think there are better and more reliable scoring options so it is a pass.

Goldstein - Started the year playing forward before moving back into the ruck when Xerri injured himself. He went on an amazing run when moved back into his natural position and is probably under-priced due to those early weeks of the year. I think being another year older and more expensive than Grundy and Marshall I would pass. The wheels have to fall off eventually and he will be 35 in July.

Grundy - 130.5, 130, 120.6, 115.2 and 103.5. Those are Grundy's averages the last 5 years. At his price with those numbers he would feel like a no brainer in most situations. Why would you not pick him? He is now splitting time with the other gun ruck in that time period in Max Gawn. He has also missed games due to injury in the last two seasons and missed the majority of last year with the knee. There is only one example in recent history that I can think of where you had these two genuine number 1 ruck options in the same side and that was Cox and Nic Nat a decade ago. In 2011 Cox averaged 122.2 and Nic Nat averaged 93.8. 2012 Cox had a drop in his average to 112.3 but Nic Nat rose to average 114.2. Having a dominant inside midfield at the Dees should also see his hit out to advantage numbers rise resulting in more points. Grundy and Gawn worked amazingly in tandem vs the Tigers in the pre-season game, but will they both be able to put up big numbers game to game each week? I really want to pick him, but right now I have Darcy and Marshall at R1 and R2 in my side. I am thinking that both Gawn and Grundy will get R/F DPP and will both be locks in the forward line at that point.

Marshall - The most popular ruck pick with a 52% ownership, Marshall no longer has Ryder to split the load and with all the injuries to the Saints tall stocks he will be roaming around on his own. He has generally scored better while rucking on his own but has had issues with plantar fasciitis the last two seasons which has also seen him miss games or be managed. He looks pretty fit heading into the season and could easily average 110 in the role.

Preuss - He started last year with 6 straight scores over the ton in games he played. The issue with Preuss is getting on the park. Between the brain fades and his body not holding up it is a recipe for disaster. If he could get out there for an extended period of time and not do something stupid he may end up in the top handful of rucks. The risk doesn't outweigh the reward, particularly at his price.

McInerney - A slight regression in scoring saw his average drop a few PPG last year. He is the clear number 1 ruck option for the Lions and volume won't be an issue. I just can't see him jumping into that top bracket so it is a pass.

Hickey - After a career high 103.3 average in 2021 for Hickey, he struggled with injuries last year and saw his average drop to 84.6 on the season. 2021 was a shock considering he has been a run of the mill journeyman ruck and the 84.6 is closer to his previous career best. Between the injury risk and the one out of the box year I can't pick him at his price.

Meek - If he was the clear sole ruck for the Hawks I would lock and load him at R2. Worst case he becomes a pretty good stepping stone at his price while you work out who the top rucks are. Best case he turns into one of the best handful of rucks in the comp and you just spent 430k for him. He has shown the potential to score extremely well as the sole ruck, but it looks like the Hawks want to persist with Reeves as the guy and Meek as the forward/ruck option. I feel Meek outplayed Reeves by a wide margin, he only saw 12 CBA's to Reeves 19 but looked far better the entire game against the Pies. Pass at this point but if the cash is needed and he is the sole ruck he will be tempting to pick

Lycett - Injuries last year saw his average drop and the Power find other options in the ruck with the Finlayson/Dixon combo working quite well down the stretch. There is some competition for the R1 spot at Port but Lycett should get the first crack. Priced reasonably at 429k, a 95 average isn't out of the question. I just don't see him pushing towards the ton to make him a stand out pick at his price. I think Meek has more upside than Lycett if I was going to pick one in this range.

Draper - He will be the Bombers number 1 ruck, but role doesn't necessarily mean output. He shows flashes of brilliance like his goal of the year, then produces a score of 6 in round 9 last year from 73% TOG. I can't pick him and he is a pass

Xerri - He was a popular pick to start last year having taken over as North's number 1 ruck. Injury struck and when he did come back into the side I believe the role did as well. I personally wouldn't pick him this season as I feel Clarko will look to roll with Goldstein as the main  ruck option. He may be one for next year as an under-priced sole ruck

Pitto - He will be the number 1 ruck for the Blues this year. I prefer De Koning in that role, the club prefers Pitto early and he will plod along without doing anything spectacular. He could average in the 90 range as a ceiling but will more likely hit around the 80 mark with a couple of big scores in there. He isn't a bad stepping stone option, but I would rather the club invest the time in De Koning who looks like he could be a genuine number 1 ruck with a bit more strength and run.

Ratugolea - Extremely cheap and playing down back, he looks to be a R3 option that will likely be a slow burn but provide some early round coverage. If I can find the cash for him I will likely grab him, otherwise monitor until he is on the bubble and use a corrective trade then

[Mat0369]

Forwards

Dunkley - Has been the model of consistency at the position. He finds ways to tally up the points and will probably see old Lyons role at the Lions this year. With how much time he will spend around the ball, his ceiling and scoring history he is a lock. The one knock on him has to be the injuries in 2020 and 2021, but having played all 23 games last year it's hard to find a fault.

Cogs - A bounce back season for Cogs saw him crack the ton and finish as the number 2 forward of the guys still with forward status. He was a flat track bully with two monster scores against West Coast and North while also having a clunker against the Blues where he scored 37. The Giants midfield cupboard is bare which will see him firmly in the rotation with less time up forward. I think he is an upgrade target due to the clunker he will inevitably put up at some point.

Heeney - A career high 101.2 saw Heeney in the top end of forwards. He started last year on fire with back to back 140 scores, had a bit of a lull on either side of the bye and finished really well not dropping under the ton in his last 7 games and averaging 110 through that period. With his ceiling he could be a really astute pick and if he starts off the way he did last year he would provide a nice POD.

Butters - He plays a kamikaze style of footy which can see him pick up a knock and struggle for a few weeks while he tries to shake it off. Last year this was the case a couple of times and he was extremely frustrating to own. After he returned late in the season he went on to average 107 and perform as most thought he would prior to that. Unfortunately by that point you had probably traded him. I can't pick him but he does have a lot of upside.

Moore - Averaging 100 after the bye, Moore flew under the radar in an awful Hawks team. He looked to be playing up the field in the pre-season game and that should help his scoring floor as he won't be goal reliant. Personally not for me and better options are available.

Hawkins - Most likely out for round 1 means pass regardless. He averaged 106.8 in the last 8, right after a poor score of 43 against the Tigers. I would look at him as an upgrade target, he can go on big runs late in the year and be a fantastic F6/F7 option but I see better starting options.

Lynch - 6 scores over 120 mixed in with a lot of clunkers and injury scores. Another I'd look at as a sneaky sideways that could become an elite bench stash post injury game. No way I would start with him though.

Rozee - Currently trying to decide between 2 of Rozee, Taranto and Gulden for my F2 and F3. Rozee is currently in my team after a fantastic season for Port. He has become a bona fide mid and went on to average 106.8 post bye with some monster scores. The worry with Rozee is I don't think Port will be very good and he may start to attract some attention. He does have a huge ceiling and is one of a handful of Port players that has had an good showing in the pre-season games along with Bergman. The 111 in the practice game is also promising that he has a great role and even coasting he seems to be racking it up. I currently have him in that F2 spot but I may look to move him out for this next player

Taranto - Last year was a bit of a disaster for Taranto along with the rest of the Giants. He was played forward a lot to accommodate his teammates and then had injury problems from Round 10 and again late in the season. He is now at a new club and expected to play a hell of a lot in the midfield. The one thing with Taranto that lets him down is his ball use. He is elite winning contested possessions, tackling and has great hands, but kicking the ball is a clear weakness and not great for SC. One problem at GWS is they often couldn't play both Hopper and Taranto in there at the same time. They both have similar strengths in close and tackling, Taranto spreads better from the contest to pick up cheap uncontested possessions, but the Tigers may need to stagger their time in the CBA's together and swing Taranto forward allowing Bolton and even Dusty at times to runt through there. I know the Tigers wanted to get bigger and bash teams around the contest, but it will be interesting to see if it is sustainable if the ball use is inefficient forward of centre.

J. Cameron - May miss Round 1 which is an instant pass. Probably around the mark of where he will average on the season which isn't good enough for top 6. Pass

Walker - He seems to be plugging along but can't maintain the rage for a full season anymore. Pass

Bolton - Not sure on his role with Taranto and Hopper now at the club. Has a great ceiling but is far too inconsistent with some killer scores. Pass for now.

Dusty - Past his prime, likely a more permeant forward and would need to be a keeper at his price. Pass for me

D. Cameron - I initially had him locked in at F3 due to the DPP factor and how good he was for the majority of games without Grundy. Rounds 18 to 23 were a little disappointing, 2 ton but two 70's, one in the 60's and a 45 isn't good. The hamstring injury has him out for now as I've read he is expected to return in Round 2
EDIT: Played the pre-season games, I didn't like the split with Cox. I'd say the Pies are 50/50 as to who the main ruck will be or will they play both? I will hold off for the time being

Gulden - One of the best ball users by foot in the AFL. Not only is he elite by foot, he is also an elite decision maker. He is one of my fave non Carlton players and I have been on the bandwagon since his rookie season. I thought we may have been about 12 months out before he became a true premium in SC, but having watched him closely against Carlton he is going to have a dominant season at the Swans. It sounds like they want to play him in the middle and he is ready to tear games apart. For all the credit Warner has been getting, I think Gulden will be the better player. I have locked him into my F3 spot for the time being.

Jackson - As a key forward it's a no. If Darcy has a LTI and he gets a run in the ruck, it is a low price high reward option. Watch list

Finlayson - Originally compiled this before the personal stuff came out along with the injuries. More important things in his life than footy right now.

Lobb - As a key forward at the Dogs it is a no. If English gets injured and he gets thrown into the ruck potentially (although Sweet likely comes in first) it is a maybe. Pass but possible R/F coverage at some point.

Zorko - Out for round 1 and I doubt his body holds up. Pass

Anderson - Unlikely to get named but if he does at some point he has the ability to smash out scores. Wait and see but not a starting option right now.

Bailey - A huge X-Factor but I don't think he will be a premium forward. Pass with better options around.

Greene  - Can't trust him to stay fit and does too many dumb things in games on top of that. Maybe as a super cheap F7 bench coverage option at some point.

Cunnington - Way under-priced for what he is capable of. Last year was a lost season for him between the cancer and returning to a number of soft tissue injuries. He has had a full pre-season, is going to play largely in the guts and can be picked as a forward. That's 3 ticks for me and I've locked him in at F4.

Graham - No idea what his role will be at the Tiges, can't pick him with the new additions that are better options than he is anyway.

Gunston - Could be an interesting stepping stone at the Lions. He is in a good team again with forwards to take away pressure and let him play his best game. He could average around 90 but probably too expensive for me to start.

Stringer - Injured and out of round 1. Maybe cheap and bench coverage down the stretch if he has an injury game. Hard to trust him though.

Tom McDonald - An 80 average for TMac isn't out of the question, probably needs to hit 90 to be worth his price though. Could be a nice stepping stone.

Rhylee West - He may be the Dunkley replacement at the Dogs. One to keep an eye on but won't start him.

Langford - Often injured and inconsistent, I can't pick him. Pass

Lukosius - Too good by foot to not be a great SC option at some point. The Suns just can't find a position for him. Pass this year.

Kosi - Will see a number of midfield minutes for the Dees. Just not sure he can be a huge ball winner to become a premium forward this year. He impacts without the ball more than he does with the ball at times.

Wingard - Has been a great scorer at times in the past, can't pick him now. 80ish is probably on the cards but I don't think he plays 22 and he won't be consistent.

Horne-Francis - Port gave up a lot to get him and he was spoken about as the next big thing. Maybe with midfield minutes at Port he lives up to his potential. Could be a nice sideways trade early if Fyfe gets injured.

Ziebell - Playing back and sharing the kick-in duties with McDonald makes him tempting. Another potential sideways trade for Fyfe.

Fyfe - In years gone by, Fyfe as a forward would have been a lock. Personally I am staying away. Everything I've read says he is going to be in that role permanently, his goal kicking is sub par and he is a walking injury. At his price he could average 80 which may be enough to be a stepping stone, but if he plays 3 rounds and gets injured he potentially screws you. Risk isn't worth the reward.
EDIT: Pre-season game has changed my mind slightly. There is every chance he gets injured, but it looks like he can dominate for stretches in the forward line and is pretty fit heading into the season. 

Shiels - Clarko recruited him for a reason, unfortunately I think it is just as an experienced head to set some standards and he is well past it. Pass

Bruhn - Looks like he will be a very good player at some point, he will also get opportunity in the Cats midfield, I don't know if it will be enough to make it worth starting him though.

Tom Powell - Looked the goods all pre-season for North and is primed to have a fantastic season. He was a rookie gem a couple years back and he could be a great stepping stone this year.

Jack Martin - Always injured and far too inconsistent. I personally would prefer the Blues didn't let him be a walk up start into the 22 and made him come back through the VFL.  Pass for SC.

Tarryn Thomas - I had him locked in my team at one point. He is under 300k, was expected to play as a running HBF and take the kickouts for North. His problems off the field has put a line through him pretty easily.

Allen - The man in the Eagles forward line. After injury destroyed last season he is now ready to go and priced at a modest 210k. 2021 he was averaging 75 heading into the bye before an extremely disappointing finish which included 4 scores in the 30's. If the Eagles aren't good than Allen may have a few more of those games, but the risk is worth the reward. I have him locked at F5.

McDonald-Tipungwuti - Potential experienced rookie pick if he makes a comeback. I don't like picking forward pockets though, let alone at 200k. Pass

Fantasia - See McDonald-Tipungwuti and add always injured. Pass

Henry - Expected to take a wing spot eventually at the Dockers. He is too talented to be floundering around in the WAFL. I'd like to see Freo back him in and play him but he will likely be in and out of the side. Pass

Ben King - A breakout 2021 saw him finish with 47 goals in a terrible GC team. The Suns are a lot better now and appear to have more weapons. However King was awful post bye in that season with scores of 22, 24, 25, 11, 12, 21 and 18 in that period. He is 175k which is rookie priced, but if he puts up a number of clunkers in a row he is going to make barely any money and could come back to burn you. At this point I have him in based on potential, but it's likely he makes his way out if someone with a higher floor gets named.

Josh Bruce - Expected to play as a defender which is a big change from years gone by. At his price, if he gets a game he is almost a lock. He probably has a higher floor down back and with Liam Jones they could be a great intercepting pair. The question is does he play?

[Peter]

Agree with you on all counts so far

[GoldDigger]

Love your work to date. Also agree with all so far!

[Mat0369]

I've been screwing around with my line-ups and landed on this for now. I'm not sold on it, but I don't hate it.



I wouldn't mind finding the cash to turn Green into Macrae or even Josh Kelly

One player I am really liking as a smokey is Hewett who I think will go under the radar and average 110-115.

[enzedder]

I like the overall mix.
Cunnington and Fyfe aren't for me though.
Sending you a pm.

[arbel]

Don't know if Cole's role is very SC friendly.  I'd try to get Yeo in there, higher ceiling.
Callaghan could be a unique pick, especially if pumps out numbers regularly like the weekend!!
Try to get Dunkly in FWD's, taking up another mid premiums spot (unless your plan for later)
As enzedder said I wouldn't have Cunnington in there.
Could trade him out and swing Dunkley FWD and that could get Macrae into mids (depending on money left)
Fyfe if playing as a pure fwd will be too swingy for me but could be an awesome pick if getting a few goals a game with some midfield time.

Overall though not a bad team.

[Bully]

Darcy still in the frame for me but I'm very concerned about carrying two injury prone rucks, I reckon it's a minefield & the rucks will determine success or failure this year.

[Mat0369]

Don't know if Cole's role is very SC friendly.  I'd try to get Yeo in there, higher ceiling.
Callaghan could be a unique pick, especially if pumps out numbers regularly like the weekend!!
Try to get Dunkly in FWD's, taking up another mid premiums spot (unless your plan for later)
As enzedder said I wouldn't have Cunnington in there.
Could trade him out and swing Dunkley FWD and that could get Macrae into mids (depending on money left)
Fyfe if playing as a pure fwd will be too swingy for me but could be an awesome pick if getting a few goals a game with some midfield time.

Overall though not a bad team.

Cole is a placeholder or an in case of emergency option. He should be best 22 and should average around 60ish, scoring isn't ideal at his price but it may be worth paying for the JS. If someone like Willmot is named I can always downgrade and pocket the cash.

Dunks is basically Fyfe but I moved Fyfe forward. I have 2 premium mids, Green, 2 mid price options and rookies in the midfield at the moment. I swung him more from an optics point of view. I can also move Davey to the mid bench, play Mackenzie and bench one of Sheezel or Allen

Cunnington is being slept on. He is a potential premium mid with forward eligibility. He attended 27 CBA's in the practice game (only LDU had more for North and was tied with Libba who had the most of any Dogs mid). He has averaged 108.7, 102.3 and 102 in the last 3 years. Even if averages 90 it puts him around the top 10 from last year that retained their eligibility.

Fyfe is my worry with his goal kicking and how injury prone he is. He has gotten through the pre-season unscathed and looked pretty solid for his price. He is probably the option I would look to move if I can find a different structure I like once we get a better idea on the rookies.

Darcy still in the frame for me but I'm very concerned about carrying two injury prone rucks, I reckon it's a minefield & the rucks will determine success or failure this year.

Rucks are impossible to pick this year. They all have question marks one way or another. I am going through my ruck list now. If the Hawks were happy to roll with Meek as the lone ruck and the Pies with Cameron, they were the two I'd probably start with and use the cash elsewhere.

It will be the make or break line this year.

[SydneyRox]

Rather than start a new thread I thought I would just chuck in here

Coniglio + Esava  vs Cunnington + Fyfe??

[Mat0369]

I'm trying to find the cash for Esava as maybe R3. If he plays down back he could do okay and earn a bit of coin but I would expect him to be a slow burn. He doesn't use the ball well by foot but might do alright if he just kicks long down the line to a contest and grab a few intercepts a game.

Cunnington you get an under-priced keeper and Fyfe should score decently until he inevitably gets injured. I probably lean towards that combo.

Cogs will put up a clunker at some point and can be had for much cheaper. He does just about every season. Other than Dunkley the next batch of forwards does feel like potential or bounce back. There is probably a group of 6 or 7 guys that I have clumped together at the moment and with Cogs being the most expensive.

[Mat0369]

Finally finished my list! Only took until a day before the season starts  :P

I've been screwing around with my line-ups and landed on this for now. I'm not sold on it, but I don't hate it.



I wouldn't mind finding the cash to turn Green into Macrae or even Josh Kelly

One player I am really liking as a smokey is Hewett who I think will go under the radar and average 110-115.

I had made a change to this team where I dumped Cole to Chesser and turned Cincotta into Cowan. Played around with it some more tonight and came up with this



I am really liking Neale at M2. I still can't make my mind up on rookies, Taranto vs Rozee and my M2/M3. I'm lucky in that I haven't had to break my structure since I didn't have Yeo.