WXV Round 15: London's time to Climb

[Purple 77]

Normal Friday night lockout at 8.10pm AEST :)

Round 15, AFL Round 17

Home Team	Away Team	Venue	Head-to-Head
Pacific Islanders	Seoul Magpies	Neutral, Melbourne Cricket Ground	1  v  7
New Delhi Tigers	Toronto Wolves	Tata Stadium	2  v  6
Dublin Destroyers	Beijing Thunder	Crooke Park, EurAsia	4  v  4
Tokyo Samurai	Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	Neutral, TIO Traeger Park Oval	1  v  3
Moscow Spetsnaz	New York Revolution	Luzhniki Stadium, Peace Cup	3  v  4
Berlin Brewers	Cape Town Cobras	Berlin Olympic Stadium	5  v  3
Buenos Aires Armadillos	Cairo Sands	Estadio de River, AAP Alliance	5  v  2
Christchurch Saints	Mexico City Suns	AMI Stadium, AAP Alliance	3  v  2
PNL Reindeers	London Royals	State de France, EurAsia, Europe	5  v  2

I've paired these two teams together all year, so how can I not dub it my MATCH OF THE ROUND! Seoul & Pacific, two of last years top 4 (pre finals) have had a much more challenging year, taking at hit on the scoring output that they've become so accustomed to. Sitting 6th and 9th with percentage counting for just as much as wins, they both have tough match-ups after this game, so really, this game has the potential to be an elimination final effectively. It's very fitting that this game is a neutral game! It's been pointed out to me that I haven't once tipped against Seoul this year. Don't see why that should stop now!

The game I most suspect to score the most points this week, these two teams have been building a bit of silent-but-intense rivalry, especially since FTC guided AAP to a memorable victory over Ricophants EurAsia. There's an argument to be made that both sides have been the best so far, and a further one to suggest that this could be the grand final preview. For Toronto, this game presents a chance to definitively claim the minor premiership. For New Delhi, a chance to book a home qualifying final. I just think Toronto's down week was last week, so I think they'll bounce back here and account for the Tiges.

Dublin would have celebrated some hard-to-come-by wins in the past two weeks, taking their season total to a baffling 4. With 3 of the best teams to come, it's likely they won't win another... I wonder if they realised they just won themselves out of a priority pick last week against PNL? For Beijing, New Delhi will be coming hard for their 2nd spot on the ladder, and a win here is a non-negotiable. A big win, even. Thunder for me.

Tokyo have caused some moments of tension in the past 3 weeks all against some good teams, but just have the one win to show for it. If we're honest, 2019 hasn't quite gone to plan, despite an ever present potential to be better. The last 3 weeks presents an opportunity to post some reward for effort, all games winnable. Rio's week last week was disastrous; getting spanked by Beijing, and Seoul spanking Cape Town has seen their once seemingly unassailable percentage over 'the pack', well, assailed. Now they need to win, and they'll come to play for this one. Rio (for the first time since Round 5, apparently).

The Spetsnaz are still well and truly in the finals race, despite a noticeable lack of noise around their prospects. Losing last week against the Suns was not ideal, but if you play the averages from recent weeks... they'll win two of their last 3, with potential to win all 3 and book themselves in! New York, well, they're just in it to cause some shower for opposition teams now, and they can certainly cause some this week. Moscow for me.

Yep, last week sucked. Gawn not getting up, coupled with a banged-up and tagged Fyfe absolutely crippled by shallow side at the moment, and I gave up such a winnable game over Cairo, and what might turn out to be a qualifying final. Angery. Covering an OOP ruck for so long finally caught up to Cape Town last week, getting murdered by Seoul and thus removing their percentage as a relevant factor. They need wins, and need to win against Berlin. Please god though, let me win. I'll back me... I might have two OOP forwards tho.

The Dillos hung around for as long as they could, but their finals chances are bust now. They really needed to win against Berlin's 127 or Cape Town's 135 in the past month, but will look for ladder respect now. Cairo amazingly covered a shocking captain score and have given their qualifying final aspirations a huge shot in the arm with a win over Berlin last week, but need to keep winning from here to make it a sure thing. Danger game. Out of mostly spite, I'm tipping the Dillos.

The Saints posted their second highest score of the year to probably make their remaining opponents more nervous than they did Pacific, with potentially 3 wins up for grabs to round out the year! The Suns would like their chances more for that result though, especially after knocking over the Spetsnaz with an impressive 148. Suns for me.

The Reindeers are starting to become a little bit of a non-factor in the last month or so, where, granted, they played some good teams, but not being able to score 130+ since Round 7 has dampened the mood I feel. The purpose of the thread title is to address London's win/loss ratio since 2013. In 2013, they won 9 games. In 2014, it was 8. And like clock work, they won 7 in 2015, 6 in 2016, 5 in 2017 before bottoming out with 4 in 2018. Now sitting on 4 wins, with three winnable games to go, they are in prime position to clearly show they're now on the right track. I'll back the Royals to do it.

[Purple 77]

WXV Team Selector for those interested

[fanTCfool]

Toronto Wolves

Traditional

Mason Redman, Wayne Milera, Connor Blakely, Kade Simpson
Jack Macrae (C), James Harmes, Jacob Hopper, Brayden Fiorini
Matthew Kreuzer
Tim Kelly, Travis Boak (VC), Rowan Marshall, Tom Hawkins
Dion Prestia, Gary Ablett Jnr (Rested)

Alex Witherden, Nick Larkey, Andrew Phillips

Resting: Jack Redden

[PowerBug]

PB Tips
7/9 last week. No change to my model, favouring the last 5 weeks more than the first 9.

Round 15 Predictions (% chance home team wins)
Pacific def by Seoul (48.83%)
New Delhi def by Toronto (29.80%)
Dublin def by Beijing (11.82%)
Tokyo def by Rio (39.67%)
Moscow def New York (77.15%)
Berlin def Cape Town (67.07%)
Buenos Aires def by Cairo (29.69%)
Christchurch def by Mexico (6.81%)
PNL def by London (30.52%)

[Toga]

Beijing Thunder
D: Heath Shaw, Brandon Ellis, Tom Jonas, Darcy Byrne-Jones
M: Lachie Neale [cc], Tom Rockliff, Dayne Zorko, David Swallow
R: Brodie Grundy [cc]
F: Kane Lambert, Josh Caddy, Luke Breust, Darcy Macpherson
IC: Jy Simpkin, Daniel Howe

Emg: James Aish (d/m), Marcus Adams (d), Taylor Walker (f)

[GoLions]

PB Tips
7/9 last week. No change to my model, favouring the last 5 weeks more than the first 9.

Round 115 Predictions (% chance home team wins)
Pacific def by Seoul (48.83%)
New Delhi def by Toronto (29.80%)
Dublin def by Beijing (11.82%)
Tokyo def by Rio (39.67%)
Moscow def New York (77.15%)
Berlin def Cape Town (67.07%)
Buenos Aires def by Cairo (29.69%)
Christchurch def by Mexico (6.81%)
PNL def by London (30.52%)

flower, how long was the forum down for? Longggg season.

[Nige]

PB Tips
7/9 last week. No change to my model, favouring the last 5 weeks more than the first 9.

Round 115 Predictions (% chance home team wins)
Pacific def by Seoul (48.83%)
New Delhi def by Toronto (29.80%)
Dublin def by Beijing (11.82%)
Tokyo def by Rio (39.67%)
Moscow def New York (77.15%)
Berlin def Cape Town (67.07%)
Buenos Aires def by Cairo (29.69%)
Christchurch def by Mexico (6.81%)
PNL def by London (30.52%)

flower, how long was the forum down for? Longggg season.

Time flies when you're having fun.

[upthemaidens]

Big game against Seoul this week, no Kelly certainly helps us.

[Purple 77]

And special mention to the fact that these final 3 rounds have been rigged so that you'll play 3 teams from your '2018 third' i.e. 1-6, 7-12 and 13-18 teams.

Should be a genuine ladder shaper!

[Nige]

Karen

Tom Stewart (cc), Nick Vlastuin, Jeremy McGovern, Alex Keath
David Zaharakis, Ricky Henderson, Hugh Greenwood, Hugh McCluggage (cc)
Dawson Simpson
Mitch Robinson, Shane Edwards, Lincoln McCarthy, Ollie Hanrahan
Rory Lobb, Andrew McGrath (rb)

Ben Brown, Daniel McKenzie, Brad Scheer

Rest: Jason Castagna

[Jukes]

D: J. Crisp, R. Burton, C. Rozee, J. Kelly
M: S. Coniglio (cc), A. Treloar (cc), G. Hewett, J. Sinclair
R: C. Brown (OOP)
F: J. De Goey, B. Acres, S. Petrevski-Seton, P. Lipinski
U: L. Casboult, C. Masten

Emg: N. Blakey, D. Astbury, L. Jones

D1, M1*, R1 and F1 missing ;-;
*debatable

[Purple 77]

Berlin Brewers

Team Format: Traditional

D: Dane Rampe, Zak Jones, Jarrod Harbrow, Harry Taylor
M: Nat Fyfe, Josh P Kennedy, Trent Cotchin, Jack Viney
R: Max Gawn
F: Michael Walters, David Mundy, Ben Ronke, Daniel Lloyd
U: Jake Lever, Sam Frost
E: Isaac Quaynor, Michael Hibberd, Doulton Langlands

C: Max Gawn
VC: Nat Fyfe

[Holz]

Grant Birchall, Steven May, Colin O'riordan, Mark Occonor
Brad Crouch (C), Matt Crouch (VC), Rory Sloane, Dustin Martin
Todd Goldstien
Jack Reiwoldt, Josh J Kennedy, Toby Greene, Justin Westhoff
Joel Selwood, Zak Butters

Jarrod Cameron (F), Nathan Brown (D),

[Jroo]

Mexico City Suns
D: James Sicily (VC), Nic Newman, Aaron Naughton (RB), Jordan Clark
M: Lachie Hunter (C), Luke Dunstan, Sam Walsh, Anthony Miles
R: Nic Naitanui
F: James Worpel, Christian Petracca, Shai Bolton, Jack Silvagni
U: Tom Hickey, Callum Wilkie

EMG: Mason Wood, Tim O'Brien, Matt Guelfi

Resting: Brad Hill

[iZander]

Flood

D: Cale Hooker, Jesse Joyce, Riley Bonner, Jamie Macmillan, Tom Clurey
M: Luke Parker, Oliver Florent, Andrew Brayshaw, Trent Dumont
R: Reilly O'Brien
F: Darcy Parish, Adam Cerra, Shaun Atley
U: Jarrod Berry, Ollie Wines
E: Jayden Hunt, Daniel Talia, Will Hayward

C: Luke Parker
VC: Ollie Wines