WXV Round 13: Rio Rise or Seoul Survive?

[Purple 77]

PARTIAL LOCKOUT on Thursday at 7.20pm AEST

FULL LOCKOUT on Friday at 7.50pm AEST

Round 13, AFL Round 15

Home Team	Score	Away Team	Score	Venue	Head-to-Head
Dublin Destroyers	0	Christchurch Saints	0	Crooke Park	3  v  1
Beijing Thunder	0	PNL Reindeers	0	Beijing Olympic Park, EurAsia	3  v  4
Toronto Wolves	0	New York Revolution	0	Rogers Centre, AAP Alliance, Americas	6  v  1
Cape Town Cobras	0	New Delhi Tigers	0	Newlands Cricket Ground	4  v  3
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	0	Seoul Magpies	0	Maracana Stadium	0  v  4
Berlin Brewers	0	Buenos Aires Armadillos	0	Berlin Olympic Stadium	2  v  5
Mexico City Suns	0	Pacific Islanders	0	Fireball Stadium, AAP Alliance	6  v  1
London Royals	0	Moscow Spetsnaz	0	London Olympic Stadium, EurAsia, Europe	3  v  4
Cairo Sands	0	Tokyo Samurai	0	Borg El Arab Stadium	2  v  5

Oh Dublin. Remember that long period of time where you knew how to win? Well, no one misses that, so your formline is heartwarming for the rest of us - even saving you best scores for the bye. Taking it a little further, I'd say there'd be no greater communal joy in seeing Christchurch beat the Destroyers. So to quote an iconic movie... "Quack, quack, quack, quack!"

The Thunder have certainly had a great month, but if you look closely... their scores have been sliding for 4 consecutive weeks! Perhaps the bye has come at an opportune time? The Reindeers - granted, they haven't scored 130+ in 5 weeks, but their opponents certainly haven't taken any... "Merci", averaging 147 ppg during this time. I think this continues sorry PNL!

Whilst Toronto has taken a well earned break, their coach was busy leading an all-time high score for AAP in a glorious victory over EurAsia! FTC certainly is the man with the answers! I wouldn't say it's too tough a question though this week, with New York probably tracking at a challenge per 3-4 weeks at the moment.

Cape Town's victory over Buenos Aires really was character defining - on the back foot, not playing well, but did enough to grind out the win and keep clinging onto the 8. Imagine when Nank gets back! New Delhi though are probably winning this game with a renewed venom, fresh after coaching a EurAsian loss.

It's the yo-yo Rio v the surviving Seoul in my MATCH OF THE ROUND! What's that I hear? Both of these teams have the same number of wins, yet you're only saying Seoul is surviving? Well, let me explain! Rio, 7th has much superior percentage over the 8th placed Seoul where, with a couple of fortunate losses to 1 particular team (Cairo), top 4 is still a very real possibility. Seoul's percentage meanwhile, is firmly within the pack, and they face a horror end to the year with Pacific, Toronto and Beijing to come. If Rio win, I reckon they'll go on with it and make the 4. If Seoul win, well, they can still make finals. I choose... Seoul!

It was my highest scoring round in Round 12, but I just know I've got a lot more left in me. Whilst not wanting to jinx it, I really feel like I'm in the best form of... my career actually! I've posted overall the 5th most points this year, and regularly without 4-6 premium starters, who are all tracking to be back by September. But, I flowering need to make them, and I've been burned before... especially against Buenos Aires (I still remember 2016 ya barbies). The Dillos were the biggest contributors to the AAP win, holding the key to victory in Reilly O'Brien. But, it kinda hurts they didn't have that score against Cape Town, otherwise finals becomes VERY attainable. It's still possible, but they need a win this week... and I'll back me here.

Mexico City just posted their most satisfying win in some time, toppling old rival Dublin in a blast from the past. That stopped a 5-game losing streak, and also provided some much deserved reward for effort. Pacific are in the exact same boat as Seoul (like all year), and MUST win here in preparation for a hellish final 3 rounds. They also need %, and plenty of it. Islanders will get it done.

Every time London has scored 138 or more this year, they've won, and lost every time they've scored under it. I think that's about fair. I'd even say that effort could very well do it against Moscow, who have scored less than that 66% of the time this year. Moscow really need a win here in order to make finals, and I think they'll do it... solely on the basis that London missed out on a Sheed & Shuey double last week.

Despite being a game clear of 4th, Cairo are the team to drop out of the four if they lose any game from here on out IMO. Toronto, New Delhi and Beijing have just too a good a percentage, whilst Berlin & Rio are within spitting distance of Cairo's. The Samurai really went out of there way to flower up Pacific's season with 150 last round, so they'll have to try again against Cairo. Danger game, but Sands get up here.

[Koop]

Christchurch Saints

D: Phil Davis (c), Mark Blicavs, Robbie Tarrant, Conor McKenna
M: Brett Deledio (vc), Sam Lloyd, Tom Scully, James Rowbottom
R: Sean Darcy
F: Harry McKay, Sam B. Reid, Josh Thomas, Zac Bailey
U: Ed Richards, Jackson Trengove

E: Paddy Dow, Easton Wood, Brennan Cox

Feels nice being able to name a ruck for the first time in a while.

[GoLions]

Kate

Harris Andrews, Callum Mills, Griffin Logue, Jasper Pittard
Mitch Duncan (C), Ben Cunnington (VC), Chris Mayne, Touk Miller
The Schlong
Tom Papley, Josh Battle, Alex Neal-Bullen, Dean Kent
Brad Ebert, Dylan Clarke

Luke McDonald, Shaun Burgoyne, Gryan Miers

[Holz]

Christchurch Saints

D: Phil Davis (c), Mark Blicavs, Robbie Tarrant, Conor McKenna
M: Brett Deledio (vc), Sam Lloyd, Tom Scully, James Rowbottom
R: Sean Darcy
F: Harry McKay, Sam B. Reid, Josh Thomas, Zac Bailey
U: Ed Richards, Jackson Trengove

E: Paddy Dow, Easton Wood, Brennan Cox

Feels nice being able to name a ruck for the first time in a while.

Phil Davis (c) Brett Deledio (vc)  Dubliners

[GoLions]

Christchurch Saints

D: Phil Davis (c), Mark Blicavs, Robbie Tarrant, Conor McKenna
M: Brett Deledio (vc), Sam Lloyd, Tom Scully, James Rowbottom
R: Sean Darcy
F: Harry McKay, Sam B. Reid, Josh Thomas, Zac Bailey
U: Ed Richards, Jackson Trengove

E: Paddy Dow, Easton Wood, Brennan Cox

Feels nice being able to name a ruck for the first time in a while.

Phil Davis (c) Brett Deledio (vc)  Dubliners

No wonder they're so pie

[Koop]

Christchurch Saints

D: Phil Davis (c), Mark Blicavs, Robbie Tarrant, Conor McKenna
M: Brett Deledio (vc), Sam Lloyd, Tom Scully, James Rowbottom
R: Sean Darcy
F: Harry McKay, Sam B. Reid, Josh Thomas, Zac Bailey
U: Ed Richards, Jackson Trengove

E: Paddy Dow, Easton Wood, Brennan Cox

Feels nice being able to name a ruck for the first time in a while.

Phil Davis (c) Brett Deledio (vc)  Dubliners

No wonder they're so pie

This storyline sounds like every 90's sport movie...

[fanTCfool]

Toronto Wolves

Traditional

Connor Blakely, Wayne Milera, Alex Witherden, Kade Simpson
Jack Macrae (CC), James Harmes, Jacob Hopper, Brayden Fiorini
Matthew Kreuzer
Tim Kelly, Travis Boak (CC), Rowan Marshall, Tom Hawkins
Dion Prestia, Gary Ablett Jnr

Mason Redman, Allen Christensen, Andrew Phillips

Resting: Jack Redden

[Nige]

Karen Sanderson

Tom Stewart (vc), Nick Vlastuin, Alex Keath, Andrew McGrath
Ricky Henderson (c), David Zaharakis, Hugh Greenwood, Hugh McCluggage
Shane Mumford
Mitch Robinson, Ben Brown, Lincoln McCarthy, Jason Castagna
Corey Ellis, Shane Edwards

Mark Hutchings, Daniel McKenzie, Brandon White

I'd tell you who is missing, but that's no fun.

[Holz]

Christchurch Saints

D: Phil Davis (c), Mark Blicavs, Robbie Tarrant, Conor McKenna
M: Brett Deledio (vc), Sam Lloyd, Tom Scully, James Rowbottom
R: Sean Darcy
F: Harry McKay, Sam B. Reid, Josh Thomas, Zac Bailey
U: Ed Richards, Jackson Trengove

E: Paddy Dow, Easton Wood, Brennan Cox

Feels nice being able to name a ruck for the first time in a while.

Phil Davis (c) Brett Deledio (vc)  Dubliners

No wonder they're so pie

This storyline sounds like every 90's sport movie...

who is the underdog?

[PowerBug]

Because boredom, I went through and did a little exercise. If you take the scores of each team each week, randomly select one, and put it up against a randomly selected score from their opposition for the week, repeat that a number of times (I went 100), and then do the process again a number of times (I went 100), and get the average. Obviously it's pretty rough as it doesn't account for HGA being included in some scores but not others, but anyway here's what it comes up with:


Dublin def Church (89.9%)
Beijing def PNL (88.4%)
Toronto def NY (94.8%)
Cape Town def by New Dehli (14.1%)
Rio def Seoul (56.1%)
Berlin def Dillos (83.1%)
Mexico def by Pacific (24.8%)
London def by Moscow (38.7%)
Cairo def Tokyo (62.7%)

So yeah I guess those are my tips for the week, make of that whatever you want, just felt like sharing


fyi this method got all 9 results correct last round (and yes I remembered to only use Rd 1 - 11 in the sample) ;)

[PowerBug]

And for World Idol, using a similar method:

% of times eliminated
Seoul 27.55%
Pacific 25.96%
Rio 22.14%
Beijing 16.77%
New Dehli 6.75%
Toronto 1.76%

So as we have seen with their dominance this season, it would be very surprising to see Toronto get eliminated this week.

[fanTCfool]

And for World Idol, using a similar method:

% of times eliminated
Seoul 27.55%
Pacific 25.96%
Rio 22.14%
Beijing 16.77%
New Dehli 6.75%
Toronto 1.76%

So as we have seen with their dominance this season, it would be very surprising to see Toronto get eliminated this week.

How rude of you to put the mozz on us like this. Not happy Jan.

[PowerBug]

And for World Idol, using a similar method:

% of times eliminated
Seoul 27.55%
Pacific 25.96%
Rio 22.14%
Beijing 16.77%
New Dehli 6.75%
Toronto 1.76%

So as we have seen with their dominance this season, it would be very surprising to see Toronto get eliminated this week.

How rude of you to put the mozz on us like this. Not happy Jan.

I'm not putting the mozz on anyone :)

[Toga]

BEIJING THUNDER:
D: Heath Shaw, Brandon Ellis, Tom Jonas, Darcy Byrne-Jones
M: Lachie Neale [VC], Dayne Zorko, David Swallow, Wil Powell
R: Brodie Grundy [C]
F: Kane Lambert, Josh Caddy, Luke Breust, Darcy Macpherson
IC: Daniel Howe, Jy Simpkin

Emg: James Aish, Mason Cox, Daniel Rioli

[Jroo]

Mexico City Suns
D:
M:
R:
F:
U: Jackson Hately

EMG: