LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 7

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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According to this nice little post, I'm not doing too badly: http://overthelinesports.com.au/index.php/2016/05/04/afl-fantasy-captain-expert-form/ For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 66, 101, 130 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 83, 142, 112 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 101, 146, 124 (124 avg)

There's no reason to think Sam Mitchell won't bounce back this week. He did only have 83 against the Tigers last year but, before that, he had some juicy scores. The important thing to note is that there's no tag coming his way this week and he loves the MCG. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
Last 3: 85, 127, 103 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 123, 135, 128 (129 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 127, 103, 108 (113 avg)

I'm still not convinced that Pendles is 100% this year but it doesn't really matter when he's coming up against a team he loves to smash that gave up two 130+ scores to Freo despite winning, and give up more in losses (150 for Hall, 143 for Tom Mitchell). Pendles will feast. Prediction - 125

Sidebottom
Last 3: 96, 144, 122 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 84, 147, 75 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 144, 122, 91 (119 avg)

Is Sidebottom a downhill skiier? Or can he only play well at the MCG? Either way, against Carlton, he wins. Prediction - 125

Selwood
Last 3: 126, 134, 97 (119 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 61, 125, 135 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 126, 114, 140 (127 avg)

130 average over the last two weeks, 125 and 135 in recent years against the Eagles (we'll blame last year on a down year), absolutely dominant at Kardinia. If it weren't for Sydney playing Essendon, he'd be a lock! Prediction - 130

Dangerfield
Last 3: 129, 115, 86 (110 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 91, 142, 84 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 129, 107, 76 (104 avg)

122 average over the last two weeks, a juicy 142 to tempt you, and proven to be good as a Cat at the Cattery. Still, Selwood's a better pick this week. Prediction - 120

Hannebery
Last 3: 136, 102, 132 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 99, 101, 66 (89 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 102, 100, 76 (93 avg)

Essendon are so bad right now, they made Daisy Thomas and Bryce Gibbs look like fantasy elite. Hannebery is so good right now, he doesn't even need Essendon to look elite. Prediction - 140

Parker
Last 3: 141, 114, 96 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 111, 114, 119 (115 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 121, 135, 55 (104 avg)

Take what I said about Hannebery and add great history on top. We could have two players top 140 in the same game. Yowza! Prediction - 145

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 106, 92, 60 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 98 (98 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 92, 111, 132 (112 avg)

Will bounce back just because it's Essendon. Prediction - 120

Zaharakis
Last 3: 98, 82, 112 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 68, 80, 132 (93 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 80, 93, 72 (82 avg)

Pro, Sydney gave up 6 tons last week. Con, the top 4 needed 7, 12, 10, and 7 tackles to get there in a game where the weather skewed tackling numbers. Pro... umm... Con, Sydney have been pretty stingy otherwise. Prediction - 90

Merrett
Last 3: 98, 66, 127 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 73, 82, 86 (80 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 82 (82 avg)

If you can't get a ton against Carlton or Collingwood, you might not be the premium we thought you were. Essendon players have scored 3 tons over the past two weeks and none of them impressed, or were from this guy. Prediction - 90

Ablett
Last 3: 90, 91, 83 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 61, 119, 64 (81 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 91, 124, 134 (116 avg)

This week, Ablett vowed to no longer self-preserve and to give it 100%. I have no idea what that means. What I do know is that he's averaging 118 in wins and 88 in losses this year. Melbourne probably won't win this week and gave up 8 tons in their past 2 games. GAJ shouldn't be your C but will be fine. Prediction - 115

Hall
Last 3: 107, 94, 114 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 47, 90, 71 (69 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 94, 151, 125 (123 avg)

Now here's your interesting one... Averaging a huge 134 in their three wins, and still maintaining a 105 average in losses, Hall might just bounce back super hard in this one. Particularly at Metricon where he scored 151 just a few weeks ago. Prediction - 120

Hunter
Last 3: 133, 95, 115 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 104, 12, 32 (49 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 95, 115 (114 avg)

If he plays, he gets a serious look based on last week's 133, Etihad form, and the Crows giving up some juicy tons to the Dockers and Hawks the last two. Prediction - 120

Barlow
Last 3: 124, 138, 75 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 114, 89, 106 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 138, 99, 59 (99 avg)

Barlow waited until his team had hit rock bottom before deciding to try but he's now racking up the points. 131 average over his past couple, despite losses, and will likely avoid a tag with Neale getting the attention. Prediction - 125

Neale
Last 3: 115, 130, 132 (126 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 147, 93, 103 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 130, 79, 98 (102 avg)

If Fyfe were playing, I'd back Neale in for 130+. He's not though, so Neale will likely face a Coniglio tag that held Sam Mitchell (that guy averaging 114) to 66. Might be worth a punt in draft leagues but I just can't help but fear the tag. Prediction - 95

Shaw
Last 3: 135, 131, 85 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 147, 87, 59 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 147, 106, 75 (109 avg)

Don't do it... but Shaw has 135 and 131 in his last two, scored 147 against Freo at Subi last year, and even got a ton against the Eagles there (so a perfect year in Perth). But could you really ever put Heath Shaw captain? Prediction - 120

Steven
Last 3: 113, 100, 95 (103 avg)
Last 3 against North: 70, 85, 98 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 113, 100, 104 (106 avg)

I vaguely remember banking on Steven's form last year instead of noticing his record against North. Just don't do it. He always struggles against North. It's about as certain as Richmond disappointing their fans. Prediction - 85

Rockliff
Last 3: 132, 88, 24 (81 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 90, 133, 97 (107 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 140, 133 (137 avg)

Last week, I said Rocky would be back to go big. This week, I brag like a smug brat. I'm the smartest! But, seriously, he'll be good again against a Port team that suck and only look less bad because they played the Tigers last week. I mean, Shaun Grigg scored 133 against them and Dusty (a similar player to Rockliff - hard at it and snags goals) got a nice 114. Prediction - 125

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Lids might not have quite got to 100 but I'll take 91 from his first game back. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Viney
Last 3: 118, 134, 110 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 85, 72, 66 (74 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 66 (66 avg)

Can a guy averaging 103 be considered a roughie? When he has 5% ownership, I say yes! I'd say it's incredibly unlikely that Gold Coast are as bad as last week against Melbourne but they gave up 12 tons (more than half the Cats got a ton). That's insane! Viney might just take advantage of averaging 121 in his last three and kick the Suns while they're down. Gutsy Prediction - 135

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Armitage may have made me look foolish last time but I got him back as he delivered a measly 74 points last week. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Priddis
Last 3: 84, 94, 110 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 78, 67, 93 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 67, 84, 90 (80 avg)

An easy pick this week. In the 9 numbers above, there's only a single ton. Priddis is a bit down on form, not great against Geelong, and not great at Kardinia. Hope you don't have him! Spudiction - 75

The verdict:
1.   Parker (145)

2.   Hannebery (140)
3.   Selwood (130)
4.   Pendlebury (125)
5.   Rockliff (125)

Just missing the cut: Barlow (125) & Sidebottom (125). I think this might be a BIG scoring week.

Requests:

INCREDIBLY UNLIKELY to have time this week but I'll see what I can do.



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[WhatMate]

Had already brought Rockliff in and gave him the big C, hopefully wont regret doing it this time!

Congrats on being the best btw  ;)

Also wouldnt mind backing Stefan Martin as a roughie, but boy would that take some guts!

[LaHug]

Had already brought Rockliff in and gave him the big C, hopefully wont regret doing it this time!

Congrats on being the best btw  ;)

Also wouldnt mind backing Stefan Martin as a roughie, but boy would that take some guts!

He has shocking form against Port but he might be worth a look if Lobbe's still out.

[WhatMate]

Had already brought Rockliff in and gave him the big C, hopefully wont regret doing it this time!

Congrats on being the best btw  ;)

Also wouldnt mind backing Stefan Martin as a roughie, but boy would that take some guts!

He has shocking form against Port but he might be worth a look if Lobbe's still out.

Well I mean you would surely be backing him for 40+ hitouts easily, but i think it would take huge balls to do it based on his form. Hopefully for myself and Martin owners this is the week where he breaks out and gets to his old self!

[HBTD22]

Hanners in for me this week and the big C. Still don't feel 100% confident about captaining Rocky.

[Jalapeno]

Had Hanners last week and he served me very well! Thank you LH :)

This week I will be backing in Sammy Mitchell for a massive bounce bad on the big stage this Friday night! Love him in for 130+ and start off the week of AF well for me.

Great read as always LH thanks for the time and effort you put in to this every week, it is much appreciated :)

[Rusty00]

/Awaiting pommyadam's captain selection.

There it is! THE CURSE!

[jvalles69]

If your predictions are right, there are going to be some big scores in AF this week!

[pommyadam]

/Awaiting pommyadam's captain selection.

There it is! THE CURSE!

shush you, my captain averages a whopping 63.8 :P
I've actually found sentience with my DT side, I make my changes immediately after lockout and then don't look at it again till teams drop
going to YOLO a captain and put it on Smartin

[LaHug]

If your predictions are right, there are going to be some big scores in AF this week!

Anyone with all of my top 5 will be super set this week! Pity I have 0 of them... Might need to trade one in but not sure who I can afford. Rocky, probably.

[henry]

Will be going Rocky this week I believe.

Last week was complete toss up between Treloar and Hanneberry for Fyfe, went with Treloar in both AF and DT in the end, very happy with his score even though Hanners was higher, will be interested to see what turns out to be the better pick, no doubt will end up with both.

[Barra13]

Can't decide on Titchell or Rocky. I know my opponent will go Titchell. Maybe I should just go with him.

[Chelskiman]

Gonna risk it and put it on T. Mitchell.  It's not a huge risk really, but I just feel he's either going to go massive or he's only going to get like 80.

[Koop]

Giving the job to Viney this week LH, bring me the goods  8)

[Mat0369]

I've got that Parker bloke in all my comps. I might have to go with him then.