Risks because of more trades

[tbagrocks]

Sure we all wanted more trades bacuase Sandi has a bad foot, Jelwood gets knocked out and Swablett miss games somehow

But it is 30 trades now, so a new strategy emerges? A strategic plan to start a player to swap later?

Zac Smith as R1 and wait on the best rucks, Ball and wait on a Cotchin, Ablett, Swan and the likes to drop price?

Cloke? To make value before trading to a Buddy/SJ ?

[Swan Fan]

If you are thinking of going that way, Saints and Swans have the easiest draw for the first 3 rounds, so do we load up on these players and hope they make enough money to trade off for the elite??? If they are making good money then why trade them out....   :o

[dmac07]

I actually didn't want more trades, last season I did well through finals as I'd managed to hold on to more than most. Still, lost my grand final by 9 points though.

With the extra trades however, I'm not so much looking at it is a way to take extra risks in my starting line up. My idea will be to use the extra trades to trade more aggressively  and early to get in the premiums I want. This may mean making less cash on average per trade but the extra ones allow for this. For this I'm still going with a mostly prem/rookie structure with just 3 mid-pricers in my current starting team (Luey, Byrnes, Russel).

[Lachyj]

this is the exact strategy im having a crack with this year
ive tried getting 2-3 undervalued premiums i can keep all year long, barring injury, a few decent mid pricers that will score solidly and are sure to rise in price early and fill the rest out with quality rookies looking to get game time early.
i know how damn good the likes of GAJ swanny and pendles are but they are going to have to pump out consistent 150s from the get go to not go down in price, so i have avoided these types of players. they will be the immediate upgrade target for my mid pricers as the price gap gets to an affordable level.
i figure i may as well make use of the new rules, especially if they stick around
the big down fall with this strategy is that it limits the amount of cash cow rookies you can get in your team, so you really have to get the guys who are going to start round 1 to make sure you have a chance to swap out for rookies that wil play games later on in the season and still make as much money as you can off them
theres also the risk of injuries late in the season having used more trades early than most
but hey you gotta risk it to get the biscuit

[ronl]

Doesn't it depend if you're going for league or overall?  If you're going for overall, like myself, I feel you've got to have all guns firing on all lines from the first bounce or you soon get left behind with little or no chance of making up lost ground.

[Mykonos FC]

this is the exact strategy im having a crack with this year
ive tried getting 2-3 undervalued premiums i can keep all year long, barring injury, a few decent mid pricers that will score solidly and are sure to rise in price early and fill the rest out with quality rookies looking to get game time early.
i know how damn good the likes of GAJ swanny and pendles are but they are going to have to pump out consistent 150s from the get go to not go down in price, so i have avoided these types of players. they will be the immediate upgrade target for my mid pricers as the price gap gets to an affordable level.
i figure i may as well make use of the new rules, especially if they stick around
the big down fall with this strategy is that it limits the amount of cash cow rookies you can get in your team, so you really have to get the guys who are going to start round 1 to make sure you have a chance to swap out for rookies that wil play games later on in the season and still make as much money as you can off them
theres also the risk of injuries late in the season having used more trades early than most
but hey you gotta risk it to get the biscuit

What?

You avoid them because they are guns?
And they wouldn't need to bang out consistent 150's, just score their averages (which for the two pies' boys would be 125 or so).

I think if you are going for a few risks this year (as most should are will be) then you most certainly need 6 or so really solid and proven premiums and at least 2 of them must be in the mids imo

[Mykonos FC]

Doesn't it depend if you're going for league or overall?  If you're going for overall, like myself, I feel you've got to have all guns firing on all lines from the first bounce or you soon get left behind with little or no chance of making up lost ground.

That is true because if you get left behind, chances are you'll make rash decisions and become impatient.
Gotta get off to a solid-good start at least. And having the best on each line at least is a good way of ensuring a solid start

[Lachyj]

I don't think I will lose too much by not having them in my team for 5 rounds or so.
I guarentee GAJ will not go up in price off his first 3 games. I know they're guns and a must have in your team for the long run, but I'm looking at it more like buy low sell high in a short term sense. I'm looking at starting someone like fyfe who I think has potential to rise 50 k in the short term and swapping him for GAJ who can easily lose 50k early. And the scoring difference I will lose off having fyfe over Gary isn't enough to put me behind the 8 ball, I don't believe anyway.
I actually did it last year as well, Gary had 1 average game in his first few and that was all he needed to drop a substantial price. 
I want the ultra premos In my team just like the next bloke but I think the money I can save will help me out long term and the with the extra trades this season I figure I may as well try and turn that into an advantage somehow instead of just being comfortable with a crapload of trades up my sleeve come the end of the season

[FactHunt]

I agree AND disagree with some of the emerging themes in these threads.

No. 1 is that IMO you MUST have at least one of GAJ or Swan in your side at the start of the year because you have to mark him with the big 'C'. The points that you potentially miss out on by omitting these guys is just plain stupid.

I do like the idea of grabbing a guy like Fyfe (and for the record he is my current M5) because he has upside- as sure as water is wet... easy to pick a guy likely to ave >100ppg with a sub- $500 K price tag... but it is also likely that he will not be a top 8 MID. Therefore do we go for someone with potentially a great deal more upside than Fyfe like say Embley/Moloney/Ball who are also obviously upgrade targets, but will also not likely yield the same scores as our man in purple to save a $ at the start?

Across the board it seems to me that we need to pick around 11 'Absolute Premos', that is, they will finish in the best of their respective positions. And after that 4-6 guys with 'super upside', that is, will score handsomely (75+ PPG) for a small outlay (still talking mid-pricers), and the real trick will be picking all the right rookies to make you some coin to turn your inconsistent mid-pricers into weapons-of-mass production.

It's like any business venture, you want as much return for your initial outlay as possible.

The handy part of the game this year is that we do have these extra trades, so errors can be made early and easily smoothed over... so my advice is to dream, and risk BIG and hopefully the rewards will be reaped... but if not, the get-out-of-jail card is waiting in the wings  ;)

[Colliwobblers]

I actually didn't want more trades, last season I did well through finals as I'd managed to hold on to more than most. Still, lost my grand final by 9 points though.

With the extra trades however, I'm not so much looking at it is a way to take extra risks in my starting line up. My idea will be to use the extra trades to trade more aggressively  and early to get in the premiums I want. This may mean making less cash on average per trade but the extra ones allow for this. For this I'm still going with a mostly prem/rookie structure with just 3 mid-pricers in my current starting team (Luey, Byrnes, Russel).

^ this is the ultimate strategy.

I will risk a few mid pricers, purely to load up my midfield, but while others burn trades on fixing risks people like dmac07 will be making upgrades.

we may have 30 trades, and while wasting them might cost a little less than it did last season wasting them will still cost - simple.

[Mat0369]

You also have more players to worry about. Yes you have 30 trades, but the risk of starting 4 rookie mids with two mids on the bench also means you might have to go into matches down a player early or use earlier trades to cover them.

[Lachyj]

My plan for the big C was to put it on cox as he should score really well for the first few rounds until nicnat gets back.
Atm I have fyfe who will become GAJ when the price is right and boak (not completely sold on him yet) that will become swanny or pendles. Also have moloney for a trade to an ultra premo a little further down the track as well as Cotchin swallow and Kennedy in the mids that, barring injuries, should play out the whole season in my team. Come round 6-8, my team should be frightening.
I understand what everyone's arguments against it are but with a bit of luck, I don't see why this couldn't work

[dmac07]

My plan for the big C was to put it on cox as he should score really well for the first few rounds until nicnat gets back.
Atm I have fyfe who will become GAJ when the price is right and boak (not completely sold on him yet) that will become swanny or pendles. Also have moloney for a trade to an ultra premo a little further down the track as well as Cotchin swallow and Kennedy in the mids that, barring injuries, should play out the whole season in my team. Come round 6-8, my team should be frightening.
I understand what everyone's arguments against it are but with a bit of luck, I don't see why this couldn't work

I think by round 6-8 doing that may be a little ambitious, most rookies, or even mid pricers wont start topping out till rounds 7, 8 or 9 in price. Then you need a downgrades, at least, maybe two to get the cash for each of ablett, swan/pendles to get in, even if they do drop a little. My main point being, having someone like fyfe/boak scoring, lets say 110 ave (generous for boak), compared to ablett or swan averaging 130, for 8 rounds (at best), isnt worth the money you save. So even if fyfe raises 100k, and ablett drops 50k, I'd rather have Abletts 130-140 for 8-9 rounds (can double the difference by putting him captain), than making 150k relative saving.

[Lachyj]

Not getting any of the ultra premos has left me with plenty of spare cash which is in the wings ready for an earlier upgrade than a later one. I've got 260k sitting there for this strategy to work so I don't even need the mid pricers to top out, I'm just going to wait until they've jumped up enough and ablett etc has come down enough for this strategy to work.
Fingers crossed

[Mykonos FC]

Not getting any of the ultra premos has left me with plenty of spare cash which is in the wings ready for an earlier upgrade than a later one. I've got 260k sitting there for this strategy to work so I don't even need the mid pricers to top out, I'm just going to wait until they've jumped up enough and ablett etc has come down enough for this strategy to work.
Fingers crossed

So that us 260k unused meaning you are 260k worth of points down on someone who spends their whole budget from the beginning.
I am saving 30-50k for rookie trades (mistakes with rookies) or *touch wood* a major injury to a premium.