With 44* trades the fixtures are even more important

jamfrank · February 13, 2013, 07:22:56 PM

top4 by jbourhill, on Flickr

Above is a chart representing the top 4 teams from last year and their fixtures for 2013. I've ranked their opposition each week according to their final position on the 2012 ladder according to the following:

Teams 1-4: 1 point (Hawks, Syd, Coll, Adel)
Teams 5-8: 2 points (WC, Gee, Fre, NM)
Teams 9-12: 3 Points (St. K, Carl, Ess, Rich)
Teams: 13-14: 4 points (BL, PA)
Teams 15-18: 5 points (Mel, WB, GCS, GWS)

From the chart it is easy to see when a team is going to have an easy run, for example from round 10-14, Collingwood will play Brisbane, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Bye, Port Adelaide. This may be a good time to get Cloke in your team who is otherwise too inconsistent against stronger opposition, and then offload him before round 15 (Carlton) or 16 (Adelaide). 2 trades per week really changes the game and it becomes important to know who has the greater likelihood of scoring big according to their opposition.

I can post the other 14 teams if people think this is useful.

tbagrocks · February 13, 2013, 08:46:04 PM

It's 44 trades and i'm not buying into the whole fixture buisness, I hope people do and burn their trades, while i'll be improving my team, nice research though

buddyhell! · February 13, 2013, 09:01:56 PM

I would definitely like to see all 14 clubs

Great research well done

jamfrank · February 13, 2013, 09:34:33 PM

Quote from: tbagrocks on February 13, 2013, 08:46:04 PM
It's 44 trades and i'm not buying into the whole fixture buisness, I hope people do and burn their trades, while i'll be improving my team, nice research though

Sorry, obviously you won't have two trades for round 1 :D

However it does mean that you have 2 trades per week, which if you don't use are gone forever. If there's a chance to improve your team, obviously do it, but I can imagine weeks where you won't need to, so why not go for someone who's playing GWS or Melbourne or Gold Coast (and ideally more than one of them) in the next few weeks?

tbagrocks · February 13, 2013, 10:02:22 PM

I just think that's an incredibly risky strategy, i'll be looking at high and low BE's to make cash until I get the team I want, then trade players who might be struggling to the hot players, the draw will have little impact on my strategy

But that's just how I see it, only my opinion ;D

jamfrank · February 13, 2013, 10:05:46 PM

I suppose the strategy should be more of a guide on who to pick, if you're tossing up between two players. Particularly marking forwards like Walker, Cloke or Hawkins who are far more likely to have a big day out against weaker opposition.

jamfrank · February 13, 2013, 10:27:08 PM

4-8.jpg by jbourhill, on Flickr

Capper · February 13, 2013, 10:31:59 PM

Grabs some swans at the start then some crows around R7

jamfrank · February 13, 2013, 11:19:37 PM

richcaressst by jbourhill, on Flickr

bottom1 by jbourhill, on Flickr

jamfrank · February 13, 2013, 11:32:00 PM

giantbulldogsuns by jbourhill, on Flickr

Andrew · February 14, 2013, 05:46:39 AM

Quote from: tabs on February 13, 2013, 10:31:59 PM
Grabs some swans at the start then some crows around R7

Can't have too many Swans though... I've got Jack locked in, who else would be worth a crack? Kennedy didn't beat up on GWS and GC last year. Maybe Hannebury..? Also, what about Port midfielders. Brad Ebert? Boak..?

Nails · February 14, 2013, 02:03:43 PM

Just because they're a bottom 4 team =/= easy to score points against

A lot of the premiums have/had their worst score against the Lions last year. e.g. GAJ's 3rd lowest score for the year was against the Lions

Boyd's lowest score was against the Lions.

Joel Selwood scored 69 against the Lions

Cotchin scored a measly 103

Low on ladder doesn't mean easy to score DT on...

Ziplock · February 14, 2013, 02:12:13 PM

you've got to take into consideration the affect of taggers as well...

Andrew · February 14, 2013, 07:29:02 PM

a) Lions weren't a bottom 4 team last year
b) Lions have one of the best taggers in Raines. That's always the exclusion to the rule about poor sides but otherwise, Kieran Jack is set to repeat what he did last year v GWS and Gold Coast, and there's no reason for why Hannebury, Ebert or another Port mid won't over-perform due to easy starts as well.

These things are worth a crack with two trades a week. With someone like Jack, if he pulled a 70 on me I'd probably move him on to a more proven premium or gun cash cow after 1 round...