The Process 21

[Mat0369]

I'm not going near Josh Kelly. He has burnt me in the past and will be bound to miss games at the most inopportune times. Plus I don't know where he will play from week to week.

Lyons I have been chasing for a while but after the Bolton news I'm thinking double downgrade. I just need to work out which players to downgrade

[Ringo]

Fair comment Matt -  probably need to wait for teams and that may decide for you/

[Mat0369]

Round 9

Stewart, Lloyd, Ridley, Doc, Laird, Kosi (Murphy, Highmore)
Macrae, Lyons, Walsh, Fyfe, Mitchell, Taranto, Powell, Jordan (Bolton, Scott, Brockman)
Gawn, Grundy (Flynn)
Ziebell, Impey, Daniher, Robertson, Bergman, Poulter (McCreery, Waterman)

Round Score: 2157
Overall Rank: 1,220
Total Cash Left: $50,900

Positives: Lloyd, Stewart, Doc, Laird, Ridley, Kosi, Lyons, Macrae, Walsh, Jordon, Scott (bench), Daniher, Robertson, Poulter, Flynn (bench)

Neutral: Highmore, Taranto, Fyfe, Grundy, Gawn (C), Ziebell, Impey, Bergman

Negatives: McCreery (bench), Mitchell, Powell

Poulter ended up being a decent trade in for Warner this week. Lyons was an instant upgrade over Cripps so tick tick. It sucks I missed on RCD and Powell is now topped out with no downgrade options on the horizon.

Other rookies that are likely close to their peak include Robertson, Bergman, Kois and Scott. A couple of options I'm tossing up this week

Powell and Bergman>RCD and Zorko with $5,100 in the bank

Flynn and Powell>Bryan and Guthrie with $2,100 in the bank

Flynn and Powell>Bryan and Steele with $50,100 in the bank

Powell and Kosi>Jones and Mills/Rich/Salem and $3,000-$25,000 in the bank.

Otherwise I can do Powell and Kosi to RCD and a Blake Hardwick/Daniel although I don't really want Daniel since he burnt me. Part if it also depends on if I think RCD is still worth jumping on late after missing the first 50k. Brisbane and Adelaide in the next two games makes it interesting.

[Mat0369]

Just having a quick look at my potential trades and future weeks. I think I'm leaning towards Powell and Bergman to RCD and Zorko. It gives me a solid bench rookie heading into the bye weeks and Zorko has DPP allowing me to cover multiple spots. The week after I can do a Daniher to Dusty trade and make money which is a bonus. I can also turn Flynn into Bryan and go hard in the 1st bye week with all my Flynn money to grab a couple of premium players.

[Bully]

Just curious to know why you are targeting Bryan & not Treacy?

[Mat0369]

Just curious to know why you are targeting Bryan & not Treacy?

The theory behind the Treacy pick was to grab Marshall for ruck cover. With Marshall no longer an option in my eyes I want to pick a ruck that I feel has the best chance of playing from now to the end of the season. Sauce is nothing more than a bridge ruck and Bryan is coming off a BOG in the VFL and will push for selection. If he comes into the team this week that will be game 2 and he is ripe for the picking the week after on the bubble. Essendon are looking to get youth into their side and blood these guys this year, so with Draper out at least a month and injury prone himself I feel Bryan represents good value as not only a positive gain rookie but also potential bench coverage.

[Mat0369]

I didn't realise Dusty's BE is so low and Daniher's is actually around 80. Of my available rookies, these are their BE's

Kosi - 59
Highmore - -24
Murphy - -12
Powell - 106
Jordon - 34
Scott - 29
Brockman - 30
Flynn - 16
Daniher - 80
Robertson - 59
Bergman - 42
Poulter - -43
McCreery - 46
Waterman - 6

Of those rookies, Brockman, Waterman and McCreery haven't made enough cash to trade yet. Poulter, Highmore, Jordon, Scott, Flynn and Murphy all have low to negative BE's. That leaves Bergman, Daniher, Kosi and Robertson as the trade bait this week.

Looking at projected price gains, Daniher has about 20k left in the next 3 weeks at his average with a 7.6k gain this round. Daniher would likely be traded out next week before his 8k expected price rise. He does get the Tigers this week and we saw that key forwards can get a hold of them. If he gets the Balta matchup it will probably be a little tougher.

Dev Robertson is expected to gain 15k with only a 1k price rise this week. The 44 comes out of his average and gives him a small boost in his cash gen.

Bergman has an expected 13k price rise at his average with 8.7k expected this week. He was my original choice to cull and his cash gen has pretty much stalled post this week. The question is do I take a shot at him having a decent score against the Pies and maybe getting a couple of nice rises before his bye?

Kosi has a 20k price rise leading into his bye and could also be a pretty solid D6 option with games against the Blues and Suns. The worry is he gets one of Weiters or Jones who are both excellent key defenders. Best case he gets Plow who he can destroy as we saw on the weekend with McDonald running rampant.

By trading Daniher this week I can actually afford Cam Guthrie or Jack Steele. Both options are quite tempting with Guthrie fitting my bye structure. It still allows me to turn Flynn into Bryan next week and grab Dusty

[Bully]

I like the Guthrie/Steele picks, both shaping up as top 8 mids.

Not overly keen on Bryan over Treacy as I believe they will wind up both playing at various stages so better to pick the DPP guy. Marshall isn't the only option & there's some chance we will need cover.

[Mat0369]

I like the Guthrie/Steele picks, both shaping up as top 8 mids.

Not overly keen on Bryan over Treacy as I believe they will wind up both playing at various stages so better to pick the DPP guy. Marshall isn't the only option & there's some chance we will need cover.

Guthrie suits my byes pretty well which is why he is tempting. My only worry with Guthrie is how does he perform when Danger returns? If I was to grab a mid Steele feels like the best bang for your buck option and leads the way.

Another option I'm considering is Hawkins. I was looking at the available forwards and he was one that popped up. I didn't realise his BE was 49 this week which is quite low.  My original trade I was tossing up a Zorko/RCD combo for Powell and Bergman. Zorko would chew threw my entire bank which isn't necessarily a bad thing because I'm getting a locked in keeper. However I didn't realise that Dusty and Hawkins are also likely to spike in price this week. I feel both those guys will be up the pointy end and are also value picks right now. I can still go Daniher/Dusty pretty easily next week so it is extremely tempting to grab Hawkins instead as my premium option going up against a struggling Suns this week and look at Zorko after his bye.

With Jones potentially back I'm thinking that I can pass on RCD and grab Jones on the bubble instead. I don't want to miss out on Jones as I feel he can be a pretty good cash cow from the couple of games he did play this year.

Treacy is in this week. He has a BE of 26 which based on prior form he may not hit. Bryan looks to be an emergency for the Bombers but I feel that he still provides better coverage/cash cow potential. Of the other DPP R/F players not including Marshall we have

Campbell - Gross although his last 3 scores have been respectable.
Sav - Gross
Ladhams - Was dropped for poor form and is only in because Lycett was suspended
Lobb - Gross
Thilthorpe - Pass
Williams Pass

So there are no DPP options left that are worth wasting a trade on. I'd rather cop the donut.

[Bully]

They reckon around a month for Marshall but if either Gawn or Grundy miss a match that could be awkward. Always best to have some options up the sleeve.

[Mat0369]

They reckon around a month for Marshall but if either Gawn or Grundy miss a match that could be awkward. Always best to have some options up the sleeve.

I'm writing Marshall off this year. They were saying it would be a 4 week recovery time in the pre-season before it stretched out and he injured himself anyway. He had no feeling in his foot and will need to play himself into shape/form. If Bryan gets a handful of games I can hopefully pocket some cash in a downgrade to a DPP option if Marshall becomes available and viable down the track.

[Mat0369]

Round 10

Stewart, Lloyd, Ridley, Doc, Jones, Kosi (Murphy, Highmore)
Macrae, Lyons (C), Walsh, Fyfe, Mitchell, Taranto, Laird, Jordan (Bolton, Poulter, Brockman)
Gawn, Grundy (Flynn)
Ziebell, Zorko, Impey, Daniher, Robertson, Scott (McCreery, Waterman)

Round Score: 2287
Overall Rank: 1,586
Total Cash Left: $47,800

Positives: Doc, Lloyd, Ridley, Lyons, Macrae, Walsh, Fyfe, Mitchell, Laird, Taranto, Poulter (bench), Grundy, Gawn, Flynn (bench), Ziebell, Zorko, Impey, Daniher, Robertson

Neutral: Kosi, McCreery (bench), Stewart, Jones, Waterman

Negatives:  Scott, Jordon

The big killer was Scott on field over Poulter. He stunk it up, got concussed and didn't hit his low BE. It was a bit of a disaster. The rest of the team was okay other than Kosi's muppet act and Jordon sucking.

A couple of trades I'm considering this week.

Kosi>Madden
Scott>Weightman/Hall
Daniher>Steele

I'm trying to work out my bye structure at the minute and I'm unsure of the best way to go about it.

[Bully]

Hall is a trap, he has a worse durability record than Whitfield, Greene & Jelly. Steele I like, draw opens up a bit & I reckon as as captain he will respond from the front.

[Mat0369]

I'm going double down and winging the byes. I can actually hold my trades next week because I should have 22 and  with a ton of cash in the bank. I think Daniher is going to kill GWS with Taylor out. Hall I'm meh on and I don't know if it's worth holding Kosi for just this week.

Robertson and Daniher go their bye week and I can look at bringing in a couple of premiums then. I might scrape 18 together

[Mat0369]

Actually scrap that. I've gone Jordon and Scott to Steele and Madden.