2021 Forwards

[hawkers65]

Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

He is in the same bracket as Daniher and Impey, it's just hard to see a spot in the mids for Paddy. Can't say he's clear best 22

[bowyanger]

Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

He is in the same bracket as Daniher and Impey, it's just hard to see a spot in the mids for Paddy. Can't say he's clear best 22

Daniher and Impey are clear locks for me....

Apparently Dow has had a good pre season

On a side note - I wouldnt be surprised if Setterfield has a breakout this year

[Mat0369]

Sam Mitchell today confirmed Jarman Impey has trained as a defender all pre-season and will start the season in defence. He's 210k and averaged mid 80's over an 10 game stretch in defence before he did his ACL in 2019. Close to locked for me.

Had him in my last few drafts at F6. Prefer him to Ugle-Hagan

Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

Yup. Not sure he is guaranteed a spot come round 1 but at his price he has to be considered. The coaches love him but I'm pretty meh on him. He doesn't win enough of the ball, has terrible disposal and even worse decision making. Maybe it comes together for him this year. I'd love more than one pre-season game to get a proper look but unfortunately that's not the case.

On a side note - I wouldnt be surprised if Setterfield has a breakout this year

Also my pick to break out this year at Carlton. He had a really good stretch last year and going into his 5th season it's the traditional breakout season.

[Money Shot]

Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

Yes.

[timtim]

Marshall then JZ @ F2

If JZ, Imp & Daniher ready R1 then this frees me up to bolster other lines (ie 2 of Williams at D4, Rowell at M6, GG in Ruck)

So much uncertainty in FWD might just wait and see. With reg quarters back GnRs is viable

[/////////////////////////]

If you're not starting with Toby Greene then you may as well not bother starting at all.

Jesse Hogan had more talent in his cancerous testicle than pretty much every other player around has. Why would be try when he was stuck at shower clubs like Melbourne and Fremantle? AA CHF coming up once he starts trying.

Jeremy Cameron used to be pretty good... Until Jake Riccardi showed up and has been Jezza got the flick. JR will win the Coleman and average well over 115 in the process.

[tommy10]

If you're not starting with Toby Greene then you may as well not bother starting at all.

Jesse Hogan had more talent in his cancerous testicle than pretty much every other player around has. Why would be try when he was stuck at shower clubs like Melbourne and Fremantle? AA CHF coming up once he starts trying.

Jeremy Cameron used to be pretty good... Until Jake Riccardi showed up and has been Jezza got the flick. JR will win the Coleman and average well over 115 in the process.

Um....passionate GWS supporter perhaps  :P

Greene a option but needs more mid time. A resounding NO to other two for SC/fantasy purposes  ;D

[Colley Dogs]

My thoughts on the main forwards, and how options seem bleak this year

Danger - injury pre season and forward time looming large

Sidebottom - super expensive for an aging player who will likely play forward for extended periods

Hawkins - Cameron in, no

Dunkley - treloar added and he could easily get squeezed as we see all the time

Marshall - seems safe and a good ruck cover but not a high ceiling

Dusty - how much will he play forward, do Richmond slow down and younger mids  coming through (Graham Ross Bolton)

Walters - plays forward a lot and can be up and down. Freos young mids also ready to take over

Zorko - similar to Walters

Heeney - eh will he ever be what we think he can be? No doubts he will be largely a forward still as he’s too important there, ceiling not great

Butters/Bolton- breakout potential by not worth the risk of starting them

Degoey - see above


Daniher - sure he’s cheap and can score, but His best year their forward line was Stanton, booker, francis, fantasia, colyer. Not exactly the same quality as Brisbane’s

Zieball - sure he’s at halfback and cheap but he’s one of the worst kicks in the AFL and the role may not last. He’s also getting older and is a huge bust candidate

You've summed it up perfectly, walloo44.

I'm following my gut like I did last season, and stepping off the template.

I'm starting with Heeney at F1.

In my team, every forward will be a value pick.

It's not as crazy as it sounds, when you think about the trading cycle to achieve the objective of completing your team.

You want 12 - 14 Keepers going into Round 1. That means 18 - 20 trades to complete your team, depending on whether your structure leans towards Guns n' Rookies or Mid-Pricer.

If I run with with Heeney at F1, it allows for a keeper at D4, keeper at M6, and Gawn - Grundy in the Rucks. In total, 12 Keepers. I have Rozee at F2, whom I've tagged as a keeper (don't jump on this pick... I'm getting Rozee in any structure).

This set-up requires 18 trades to complete my team, with 12 trades for corrections and injuries.

If I run with two premium Forwards (+500K) + Heeney, with Gawn-Grundy in the rucks, I'm looking at 23 trades to complete my team (and too many Rookies on the field).

If I run with Grundy-Preuss, one of those +500k forwards needs to be Marshall (sorry, not for me), and you still end up with a structure that takes 21 trades to complete.

The above structures takes more trades to complete your team than usual, because this year's ultra-premium are carrying an additional 30k - 50k in value.

So yeah... I'm trusting my read and running with Heeney at F1.

As summed up by walloo44, the biggest query on premiums is in the forward line.

.. And the best valued mid-pricers are also on the forward line.

Don't look for balance across the different lines is my view.... look for 12-14 keepers, and let the Rookies and Mid-Pricers dictate your structure.

Nobody can convince me this year's premium forward options are strong.

For the record... I don't have Daniher (don't trust his body).

[RaisyDaisy]

Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

[Colley Dogs]

Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Good point, RD. Thanks.

My confidence in Heeney isn't great. (I start with him every year, and he rewards me and burns me in equal parts every time).

My confidence is more in the structure i.e. over balance your keepers in defence, mids, and rucks... and seek out every ounce of value in the forwards.

I have a plan B, C, & D... but it's within this framework.

Heeney could become Zac Bailey (sideways, not crazy about it, a little too speculative for mine... but I like to take 1-2 lateral picks every season)... or Butters (more inclined, as I have a strong feeling about Butters and Rozee this year)... or... downgrade Heeney to Daniher, and upgrade my current M6 (Cunnington) to Zac Merrett.

Doesn't affect my expected points total, or trades-to-complete.

But yeah... if I run with Gawn-Grundy, and therefore don't need Marshall for the loop, I'm going with my read and weighting my keepers in a way I've never done before i.e. totally disregarding the forward premiums.

With the queries over Heeney (and others), it's possible I'll end up starting with Rozee at F1!!!!

It looks bad to the eye, but I still have the same ratio of ultra-premiums, premiums, keepers, mid-pricers, rookies... and the same expected early season points return... with the same number of trades-to-complete.

The bet I'm taking is that as the season unfolds, and the player prices change, the difference between the low-end mid-pricers on the forward line, & the premiums on the forward line, will be significantly lower than on the other lines. If I'm right, I'm going to complete my team a good few weeks before those who start with 2-3 500K+ forwards.

Of course, I may be wrong!!

I feel like I'm taking a risk without risking everything, if that makes sense.

It can't hurt me too badly, but it may help me greatly.

I'm very committed to this structure.

[enzedder]

Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Good point, RD. Thanks.

My confidence in Heeney isn't great. (I start with him every year, and he rewards me and burns me in equal parts every time).

My confidence is more in the structure i.e. over balance your keepers in defence, mids, and rucks... and seek out every ounce of value in the forwards.

I have a plan B, C, & D... but it's within this framework.

Heeney could become Zac Bailey (sideways, not crazy about it, a little too speculative for mine... but I like to take 1-2 lateral picks every season)... or Butters (more inclined, as I have a strong feeling about Butters and Rozee this year)... or... downgrade Heeney to Daniher, and upgrade my current M6 (Cunnington) to Zac Merrett.

Doesn't affect my expected points total, or trades-to-complete.

But yeah... if I run with Gawn-Grundy, and therefore don't need Marshall for the loop, I'm going with my read and weighting my keepers in a way I've never done before i.e. totally disregarding the forward premiums.

With the queries over Heeney (and others), it's possible I'll end up starting with Rozee at F1!!!!

It looks bad to the eye, but I still have the same ratio of ultra-premiums, premiums, keepers, mid-pricers, rookies... and the same expected early season points return... with the same number of trades-to-complete.

The bet I'm taking is that as the season unfolds, and the player prices change, the difference between the low-end mid-pricers on the forward line, & the premiums on the forward line, will be significantly lower than on the other lines. If I'm right, I'm going to complete my team a good few weeks before those who start with 2-3 500K+ forwards.

Of course, I may be wrong!!

I feel like I'm taking a risk without risking everything, if that makes sense.

It can't hurt me too badly, but it may help me greatly.

I'm very committed to this structure.

The forward premos are an interesting bunch this year and with the value of JZ and Daniher there is the opportunity to spend a bit more elsewhere so I don’t disagree with what you have said. Not starting the expensive forwards is probably not going to burn you.
I am starting to come around to your point of view but probably won’t take it as far. I still see value in having Marshall fwd as ruck cover and someone like Dusty who will be solid.
I planned on starting Dangerfield but now I am beginning to think about getting someone like Rozee myself. Danger/123k mid rookie   to Rozee/Tom Green looks okay to me.
The queries over Danger Heeney Buddy and co are making us think of getting players we probably wouldn’t consider otherwise. I feel choosing some up and comers may be the way to go this year as I think the expensive forwards will drop somewhat or barely maintain their price as we see which ones are the ones to get. Dunkley is the unknown who could go huge but I haven’t given him much thought to be honest with the doggies mix.

[RaisyDaisy]

Dunkley and Marshall are locked for me

I might look at a cheaper F3 - someone like Jezza Cameron, Rozee etc, and then JZ, Daniher and Impey are all in contention to fill out the rest of the line too

Dunkley was thrown all over the park last year and still averaged 104. Safe as houses for Top 6 and priced well

[bowyanger]

Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Good point, RD. Thanks.

My confidence in Heeney isn't great. (I start with him every year, and he rewards me and burns me in equal parts every time).

My confidence is more in the structure i.e. over balance your keepers in defence, mids, and rucks... and seek out every ounce of value in the forwards.

I have a plan B, C, & D... but it's within this framework.

Heeney could become Zac Bailey (sideways, not crazy about it, a little too speculative for mine... but I like to take 1-2 lateral picks every season)... or Butters (more inclined, as I have a strong feeling about Butters and Rozee this year)... or... downgrade Heeney to Daniher, and upgrade my current M6 (Cunnington) to Zac Merrett.

Doesn't affect my expected points total, or trades-to-complete.

But yeah... if I run with Gawn-Grundy, and therefore don't need Marshall for the loop, I'm going with my read and weighting my keepers in a way I've never done before i.e. totally disregarding the forward premiums.

With the queries over Heeney (and others), it's possible I'll end up starting with Rozee at F1!!!!

It looks bad to the eye, but I still have the same ratio of ultra-premiums, premiums, keepers, mid-pricers, rookies... and the same expected early season points return... with the same number of trades-to-complete.

The bet I'm taking is that as the season unfolds, and the player prices change, the difference between the low-end mid-pricers on the forward line, & the premiums on the forward line, will be significantly lower than on the other lines. If I'm right, I'm going to complete my team a good few weeks before those who start with 2-3 500K+ forwards.

Of course, I may be wrong!!

I feel like I'm taking a risk without risking everything, if that makes sense.

It can't hurt me too badly, but it may help me greatly.

I'm very committed to this structure.

About 5 seasons ago I used to be as passionate and planned as you Collie.

Then I just accepted there are far too many variables and a good sprinkling of luck to get into the top 100 of SC to bother being so well planned.

IMO your over baking it...by lots....but meh...even after 20 years or however long its ran for planning just doesnt work out.

Yes I have a list of things that I have learnt and try to stick by that get me around 5k ranking every year...but Ive learnt  rd 1 team is most important, after then its just curveballs...trying to plan for future trades doesnt happen....ever

[Mat0369]

Dunkley and Marshall are locked for me

I might look at a cheaper F3 - someone like Jezza Cameron, Rozee etc, and then JZ, Daniher and Impey are all in contention to fill out the rest of the line too

Dunkley was thrown all over the park last year and still averaged 104. Safe as houses for Top 6 and priced well

Treloar already injured probably helps both Dunkley and Macrae.

I've never been a big subscriber to the theory that you can't have multiple SC guns from the one team, however the Dogs midfield is an absolute clusterf**k and I'm probably going to avoid it. You have Bont, Macrae, Dunkley, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Lipinski, Treloar and probably a couple of other guys that will rotate through there like Richards and West if he plays. That's way too many mouths to feed and only so many minutes that are available.

[RaisyDaisy]

Dunkley and Marshall are locked for me

I might look at a cheaper F3 - someone like Jezza Cameron, Rozee etc, and then JZ, Daniher and Impey are all in contention to fill out the rest of the line too

Dunkley was thrown all over the park last year and still averaged 104. Safe as houses for Top 6 and priced well

Treloar already injured probably helps both Dunkley and Macrae.

I've never been a big subscriber to the theory that you can't have multiple SC guns from the one team, however the Dogs midfield is an absolute clusterf**k and I'm probably going to avoid it. You have Bont, Macrae, Dunkley, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Lipinski, Treloar and probably a couple of other guys that will rotate through there like Richards and West if he plays. That's way too many mouths to feed and only so many minutes that are available.

Agree, which is why I doubt I'd start any of their mids, but Dunkley as a forward is a different proposition - he'll easily be Top 6, is priced reasonably, and last year showed us he can score well when NOT in the mids all the time, so I just don't understand why people are turned off by him, but hey, fine by me