Darcy Byrne-Jones

Started by walloo44, February 07, 2020, 02:05:44 PM

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Mat0369

Disregarding that 7 is cherry picking numbers if he did in fact play the majority of the game (which it sounds like he did). I don't see the appeal in either DBJ or Houston. I'd rather pay up and get a combo of Lloyd and Laird to go with Doc or take the punt on Howe as a mid priced option

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 08, 2020, 05:05:47 PM
Disregarding that 7 is cherry picking numbers if he did in fact play the majority of the game (which it sounds like he did). I don't see the appeal in either DBJ or Houston. I'd rather pay up and get a combo of Lloyd and Laird to go with Doc or take the punt on Howe as a mid priced option

Of course it's cherry picking, but it's fine too. Look at it another way, 13 out of his last 14 games he scored well. Slice it any way you like, but I'll bet he won't ever put up 7 in a full game again

That said, I did say somewhere else that even though I personally think Houston and DBJ will do well this year I don't really see any main reason to start either - it's not like they're a lot cheaper and breakout contenders at their prices - spend the measly 20-40k more and start proven guys like Laird, Sicily etc

If money is tight and I need to shuffle a few prems around to make a few extra bucks though, then I'll definitely consider these two to start

meow meow

DBJ is meh with Burton in the team, the end.

LordSneeze

There is always a few players that have strong finishes to the year prior. The question is guessing which ones will continue that form going forward. Invariable there is a few that will.

its just as likely they dont and you get stuck with a player that is scoring just below premium and your stuck in a rock and hard place on what to do.

shaker

Quote from: LordSneeze on February 10, 2020, 11:00:27 AM
There is always a few players that have strong finishes to the year prior. The question is guessing which ones will continue that form going forward. Invariable there is a few that will.

its just as likely they dont and you get stuck with a player that is scoring just below premium and your stuck in a rock and hard place on what to do.
Yep got sucked into Jack Steele last year he started pretty good then fell away and ended up losing money and lots of points by the time I traded him out.

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: LordSneeze on February 10, 2020, 11:00:27 AM
There is always a few players that have strong finishes to the year prior. The question is guessing which ones will continue that form going forward. Invariable there is a few that will.

its just as likely they dont and you get stuck with a player that is scoring just below premium and your stuck in a rock and hard place on what to do.

There's a difference between ending the year well, and going well from Round 9 onwards last year - that's a lot longer than just the end of year

But yes, I wouldn't be getting trapped by guys who had a strong 3-5 weeks ending the year - those are the traps that generally don't end up well - DBJ on the other hand seemed to be operating at prem level for 2/3 of the season

Will be interested to see how he goes this year

duffercoat

Quote from: meow meow on February 09, 2020, 07:52:36 PM
DBJ is meh with Burton in the team, the end.

Only if you include the ridiculous 7 in his averages. If we exclude the 7:

From rd 9 DBJ averaged 102.67 with Burton not in the team.

From rd 9 DBJ averaged 102.71 with Burton in the team.

So Burton didn't impact him at all unless he was personally responsible for that 7.

LordSneeze

Has anyone actually done a review on DBJ that looks at why his scoring increased rather than just looking at the numbers.

I cannot remember anyone actually looking into the reason for the increase in his scoring.

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: LordSneeze on February 12, 2020, 12:31:09 PM
Has anyone actually done a review on DBJ that looks at why his scoring increased rather than just looking at the numbers.

I cannot remember anyone actually looking into the reason for the increase in his scoring.

There's not really much to it

He plays a role that is SC friendly - he rebounds off HB for them, is a pretty clean user and I dare say a big chunk of it would just come down to general improvement as a player

LordSneeze

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 12, 2020, 12:52:30 PM
Quote from: LordSneeze on February 12, 2020, 12:31:09 PM
Has anyone actually done a review on DBJ that looks at why his scoring increased rather than just looking at the numbers.

I cannot remember anyone actually looking into the reason for the increase in his scoring.

There's not really much to it

He plays a role that is SC friendly - he rebounds off HB for them, is a pretty clean user and I dare say a big chunk of it would just come down to general improvement as a player

If that is the case though then why was it not a full year thing rather than a clear defining point in the season.

There was a clear change in his scoring with 6 of his first 8 games under 80 points. Then only 2 of 14 after that point went below 80 (including the 7). This is why I feel there is something too it.

In the first 8 rounds his DT to SC conversion was a -68 an average of -8.5 per game (He had 7/8 games with Negative Conversion). Following that he went at a +88 an average of +5.86 per game (He Had 10/14 with Positive Conversion).

In Each of his last 3 years DBJ has started the season (Up until the Bye) with a negative DT to SC conversion, but every year he has come home with a positive conversion rate over the second half of the season.

What this tells me is something changed given DT is purely a stats based measure while SC is more subjective.

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: LordSneeze on February 12, 2020, 05:11:29 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 12, 2020, 12:52:30 PM
Quote from: LordSneeze on February 12, 2020, 12:31:09 PM
Has anyone actually done a review on DBJ that looks at why his scoring increased rather than just looking at the numbers.

I cannot remember anyone actually looking into the reason for the increase in his scoring.

There's not really much to it

He plays a role that is SC friendly - he rebounds off HB for them, is a pretty clean user and I dare say a big chunk of it would just come down to general improvement as a player

If that is the case though then why was it not a full year thing rather than a clear defining point in the season.

There was a clear change in his scoring with 6 of his first 8 games under 80 points. Then only 2 of 14 after that point went below 80 (including the 7). This is why I feel there is something too it.

In the first 8 rounds his DT to SC conversion was a -68 an average of -8.5 per game (He had 7/8 games with Negative Conversion). Following that he went at a +88 an average of +5.86 per game (He Had 10/14 with Positive Conversion).

In Each of his last 3 years DBJ has started the season (Up until the Bye) with a negative DT to SC conversion, but every year he has come home with a positive conversion rate over the second half of the season.

What this tells me is something changed given DT is purely a stats based measure while SC is more subjective.

Eh, I don't think players only improve from Round 1 - perhaps he just took a month or so to get into things, or perhaps he just naturally started getting better as an overall player from that point on?

I don't recall there being any significant change to his role

Money Shot

Houston and Byrne Jones are both very tempting. But for me I think I’d rather pay the extra 50k and get Laird who is just so much safer.