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<Insert General Forward Questions/Discussion for the 2021 season here>

What's Buddy going to be priced at heading into next season. He was about 350k heading into 2020 and didn't play a game so you would expect a discount.

Looking at some of the prices Ziebell has to be a lock

Danger has a great draw to start the year and will in all likelihood be the #1 fwd in SC again. Must have.
Marshall will definitely be in my team as a fwd/ will have a DPP ruck so I can swing him for cover if need be. If Ryder misses the start of the year that only helps his scoring but it doesn’t really matter too much as Marshall should be one of the best scoring forwards regardless.
Heeney is amazing value. Have to pick him.
JZ’s price makes him a starting lock in my eyes given he is that price based off a 48 season average in a year where 3 of his 8 games were injury affected (two first quarter ones) and his previous nine seasons had him averaging 80/90s. All we need from him is about 5 games and he’s 100kplus profit and gone.
JoDaniher is a similar proposition. Wait for a couple of back to back big games and he’s traded out for a healthy profit.
Unsure of Buddy.

Quote from: Mat0369 on December 23, 2020, 02:25:05 PM
What's Buddy going to be priced at heading into next season. He was about 350k heading into 2020 and didn't play a game so you would expect a discount.

Looking at some of the prices Ziebell has to be a lock

Buddy is 312k
Hogan 310k
JZ and BB are 260k
Daniher 233k

I suspect most sides will be starting at least 1 from that lot

Agree with Enzedder - Geelongs juicy initial draw makes Danger a must. Can see if you do not start him may be behind the eight ball to try and bring him in.
At the moment have Daniher but want to see how he goes with preseason games. If fit he starts and has the ability to make 100k quickly. As you say JZ and BB at $260 will be the other options if he does not start,

 :)

Liking Dangerfield,  Dunkley,  Marshall,  Martin,  Daniher as starters but this is forcing me very thin in the mids.

:-\

Quote from: Sabretooth Tigers on December 23, 2020, 10:44:12 PM
:)

Liking Dangerfield,  Dunkley,  Marshall,  Martin,  Daniher as starters but this is forcing me very thin in the mids.

:-\

Dunkley should be a great forward pick. Think we are spoiled to have the likes of him and Sidebottom, alongside Danger and Martin as premo forwards in 2021. Yet with the Bulldogs having so many genuine mids (Bont, Macrae, Libba, Treloar) as well as fantastic support that can rotate through (B Smith and Hunter) I'd be wary about starting Dunkley for fear of Bevo keeping him forward. The Treloar factor squeezes him out of mids for mine or certainly impacts on his number of centre bounce attendances and with Stef Martin recruited to support English I think Dunkley's days of rucking are done as well. He starts the year as a watch and see for me.

I know it’s early stages but Dunkley at 41% surprises me.

As Enzedder said, surely he is going to be pushed out of the midfield rotation and his point scoring will drop because of that?

Well, if they want to keep him, they better have him in the middle - surely Bont will spend time forward (sans Fyfe) and Macrae on the wing, leaving Dunkley to get a fair chunk of mid time - great value at his price

Quote from: Peter on January 29, 2021, 06:40:29 AM
Well, if they want to keep him, they better have him in the middle - surely Bont will spend time forward (sans Fyfe) and Macrae on the wing, leaving Dunkley to get a fair chunk of mid time - great value at his price

Rotating with Bailey Smith, Treloar, Hunter and Libba.
Add Bont and Macrae who are too good not to get some mid time and Dunkley is just too risky for mine. Has to be on the watch list.
I initially had Macrae in my plans but I’ve even taken him out.

Quote from: enzedder on January 29, 2021, 07:50:21 AM

Quote from: Peter on January 29, 2021, 06:40:29 AM
Well, if they want to keep him, they better have him in the middle - surely Bont will spend time forward (sans Fyfe) and Macrae on the wing, leaving Dunkley to get a fair chunk of mid time - great value at his price

Rotating with Bailey Smith, Treloar, Hunter and Libba.
Add Bont and Macrae who are too good not to get some mid time and Dunkley is just too risky for mine. Has to be on the watch list.
I initially had Macrae in my plans but I’ve even taken him out.

Can see the concerns about Dogs midfielders.   Though I feel Macrea is the one you can bank on.  Unless he is stuck as a high forward it is hard to not see him benefitting from Treleor, Libba et al getting the ball out to him.    I am sticking with Macrea and leaving the rest of the dogs alone.   

Quote from: crowls on January 29, 2021, 12:58:27 PM

Quote from: enzedder on January 29, 2021, 07:50:21 AM

Quote from: Peter on January 29, 2021, 06:40:29 AM
Well, if they want to keep him, they better have him in the middle - surely Bont will spend time forward (sans Fyfe) and Macrae on the wing, leaving Dunkley to get a fair chunk of mid time - great value at his price

Rotating with Bailey Smith, Treloar, Hunter and Libba.
Add Bont and Macrae who are too good not to get some mid time and Dunkley is just too risky for mine. Has to be on the watch list.
I initially had Macrae in my plans but I’ve even taken him out.

Can see the concerns about Dogs midfielders.   Though I feel Macrea is the one you can bank on.  Unless he is stuck as a high forward it is hard to not see him benefitting from Treleor, Libba et al getting the ball out to him.    I am sticking with Macrea and leaving the rest of the dogs alone.

Yeah, probably an over reaction on my part and reckon that you’re right about Macrae being the safest of the WB mids. On the balance of byes he works better for me too.

What are peoples thoughts on S.Bolton?

Averaged 86 last year, 462k. 22 years old, 40 career games. He came on a lot last year, could he breakout further this year? Can any Richmond fans talk to if they think he will continue to grow his midfield minutes if Prestia stays fit?

Currently my F3

Quote from: dmac07 on January 31, 2021, 07:44:01 PM
What are peoples thoughts on S.Bolton?

Averaged 86 last year, 462k. 22 years old, 40 career games. He came on a lot last year, could he breakout further this year? Can any Richmond fans talk to if they think he will continue to grow his midfield minutes if Prestia stays fit?

Currently my F3

:-X

Not a Tigers fan, but I reckon he could easily avg 100. Currently my F2 (gone light-ish up forward.

My thoughts on the main forwards, and how options seem bleak this year

Danger - injury pre season and forward time looming large

Sidebottom - super expensive for an aging player who will likely play forward for extended periods

Hawkins - Cameron in, no

Dunkley - treloar added and he could easily get squeezed as we see all the time

Marshall - seems safe and a good ruck cover but not a high ceiling

Dusty - how much will he play forward, do Richmond slow down and younger mids  coming through (Graham Ross Bolton)

Walters - plays forward a lot and can be up and down. Freos young mids also ready to take over

Zorko - similar to Walters

Heeney - eh will he ever be what we think he can be? No doubts he will be largely a forward still as he’s too important there, ceiling not great

Butters/Bolton- breakout potential by not worth the risk of starting them

Degoey - see above


Daniher - sure he’s cheap and can score, but His best year their forward line was Stanton, booker, francis, fantasia, colyer. Not exactly the same quality as Brisbane’s

Zieball - sure he’s at halfback and cheap but he’s one of the worst kicks in the AFL and the role may not last. He’s also getting older and is a huge bust candidate

Fees, by the look of your notes, may as well have 8 rookies up forward

Probably the worst premiums in a line I can remember so not that far a stretch

Quote from: walloo44 on February 02, 2021, 06:09:26 PM
Probably the worst premiums in a line I can remember so not that far a stretch

I agree we have Danger who is under a injury cloud expensive and 31 this year , Martin who sort of plods along till finals , Sidey who I have never had in a SC team , Dunkley who is a gun mid in a team full of mids and the others you mentioned probably is the worst line of FWD premos since I started playing but everyone is in the same boat and will probably the line that can make or break your season.

Quote from: shaker on February 02, 2021, 07:24:32 PM

Quote from: walloo44 on February 02, 2021, 06:09:26 PM
Probably the worst premiums in a line I can remember so not that far a stretch

I agree we have Danger who is under a injury cloud expensive and 31 this year , Martin who sort of plods along till finals , Sidey who I have never had in a SC team , Dunkley who is a gun mid in a team full of mids and the others you mentioned probably is the worst line of FWD premos since I started playing but everyone is in the same boat and will probably the line that can make or break your season.

if i find the cash might go back to my ladhams pick.   

Quote from: crowls on February 02, 2021, 11:23:25 PM

Quote from: shaker on February 02, 2021, 07:24:32 PM

Quote from: walloo44 on February 02, 2021, 06:09:26 PM
Probably the worst premiums in a line I can remember so not that far a stretch

I agree we have Danger who is under a injury cloud expensive and 31 this year , Martin who sort of plods along till finals , Sidey who I have never had in a SC team , Dunkley who is a gun mid in a team full of mids and the others you mentioned probably is the worst line of FWD premos since I started playing but everyone is in the same boat and will probably the line that can make or break your season.

if i find the cash might go back to my ladhams pick.   

So Marshall, Ladhams plus i will add young Bailey (WCE) to the mix ... year of the Ruck/Fwd maybe!

Danger, Dunkley, Dusty, Marshall, Sidebottom, Zorko, Walters, Heeney etc and you blokes are saying this is the worst prem fwd choices ever?

Bonkers  :o

dusty marshall are standout starting options,  danger overpriced for risks you need to take.   Dunkley if he was at essendon where he should be.  at dogs we dont know his role.   sidey - maybe - will avg 95-105, heeney - usual up and down depending on where he plays, Zorko and Walters only with other people's money,

for me 3 prems if Grundy preuss and 2 prems if GG.   

I mean your looking at it from the perspective of these being good players. From a fantasy point of view, and with context around the players it’s very fair to say this years forwards are rubbish, with no secure premo picks. No surprises people are reaching for the likes of JZ and Daniher....

im looking at this years fwds completely different to some. these blokes are all mids that play forward for the most part.. they wouldn't be your first pick if they were mid only but they arent... the average score for a top 6 forward has been around the 95-105 mark anyway for a few years now.. excluding the odd outlier (whitfield, dusty etc)

all of these blokes are a lock to go min 95 and could all go well higher than 105 (danger, dusty, marshall, dunkley, sidey etc)

Pick any 6 of danger, sidey, dusty, heeney, marshall, zorko, dunkley, walters and they will be top 6-10 fwds come years end. Easiest line this year

Jerome gets it

Quote from: walloo44 on February 03, 2021, 10:07:15 AM
I mean your looking at it from the perspective of these being good players. From a fantasy point of view, and with context around the players it’s very fair to say this years forwards are rubbish, with no secure premo picks. No surprises people are reaching for the likes of JZ and Daniher....

Couldn't disagree more

6+ guys who could all go 100+ easily, and that's rubbish? No secure picks?

The Top 6-7 forwards are clear cut. Couldn't be easier

People are looking at JZ/Daniher etc because we will likely need a few mid price cheap types like that, and they're forwards, not because they can't figure out who the top fwd prems are going to be

Again, I don’t disagree there’s 6+ guys who “could” go 100+, in fact there might be more top end guys this year than last, but you are paying for that (6 players over 540k vs last year 3). And not only are you paying more  these 6 guys all have massive question marks around them.

I just can’t agree that Sidebottom, Walters, Dunkley, Dusty, Zorko can fit into this “easy” “clear cut” category.

None of them in my mind fit any category of: - - safe,
- value,
- consistent,
- breakout.
These are the main things we consider when we think premos or potential keepers.

In fact I’d call all of them, risky, inconsistent, bust candidates.

This ignores safer picks like danger (injury cloud and forward time) and Marshall (rucks all had inflated scores last year).

The only thing that matters is picking the Top forwards. Whether they go 100+ or 90+ is somewhat irrelevant - they just need to be the best available forwards and that group is safe as houses to finish as the top forwards

There's a huge gap between them, and the next available forwards, which makes the forward prem line very easy this year

Now, deciding on which ones to start from that group isn't clear cut, but either way, you can't really go wrong as they should all be right up there

Agree with RD here. Sure there is some doubt on some of the fwds roles, but we’re actually spoilt for choices this year compared to last year and maybe the year before. Danger, Dunks, Zorko, Dusty, Sidey and add the like of Ladhams and Marshall as ruck fwd, I’ll take that. It makes things interesting.

With Cameron in, you would think Danger would spend more mid time perhaps 70/30?? Likewise with Zorko with Joey and Nakia added to their fwds. Dunks obviously a risk with the uncertainty of his role, if they play him more fwd he’s gone to the Bombers next year or as an inside mid if they wanna keep him. Time will tell. Sidey is expensive and agree a risk but could easily go 105+ if they play him in the middle. Heeney is too risky for me with Buddy still out. You know what you’re gonna get with Dusty, starts off well, goes quiet and finishes strong. Butters/Bolton are ones I’m looking at as every chance they breakout and could average 95. Still haven’t decided on them yet...but wouldn’t say this is the worst year for fwds.

Sam Mitchell today confirmed Jarman Impey has trained as a defender all pre-season and will start the season in defence. He's 210k and averaged mid 80's over an 10 game stretch in defence before he did his ACL in 2019. Close to locked for me.

Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

Quote from: bowyanger on February 08, 2021, 07:45:27 PM
Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

He is in the same bracket as Daniher and Impey, it's just hard to see a spot in the mids for Paddy. Can't say he's clear best 22

Quote from: hawkers65 on February 08, 2021, 07:54:11 PM

Quote from: bowyanger on February 08, 2021, 07:45:27 PM
Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

He is in the same bracket as Daniher and Impey, it's just hard to see a spot in the mids for Paddy. Can't say he's clear best 22

Daniher and Impey are clear locks for me....

Apparently Dow has had a good pre season

On a side note - I wouldnt be surprised if Setterfield has a breakout this year

Quote from: hawkers65 on February 08, 2021, 07:34:27 PM
Sam Mitchell today confirmed Jarman Impey has trained as a defender all pre-season and will start the season in defence. He's 210k and averaged mid 80's over an 10 game stretch in defence before he did his ACL in 2019. Close to locked for me.

Had him in my last few drafts at F6. Prefer him to Ugle-Hagan

Quote from: bowyanger on February 08, 2021, 07:45:27 PM
Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

Yup. Not sure he is guaranteed a spot come round 1 but at his price he has to be considered. The coaches love him but I'm pretty meh on him. He doesn't win enough of the ball, has terrible disposal and even worse decision making. Maybe it comes together for him this year. I'd love more than one pre-season game to get a proper look but unfortunately that's not the case.

Quote from: bowyanger on February 08, 2021, 08:29:41 PM
On a side note - I wouldnt be surprised if Setterfield has a breakout this year

Also my pick to break out this year at Carlton. He had a really good stretch last year and going into his 5th season it's the traditional breakout season.

Quote from: bowyanger on February 08, 2021, 07:45:27 PM
Anyone considering Paddy Dow?

Yes.

Marshall then JZ @ F2

If JZ, Imp & Daniher ready R1 then this frees me up to bolster other lines (ie 2 of Williams at D4, Rowell at M6, GG in Ruck)

So much uncertainty in FWD might just wait and see. With reg quarters back GnRs is viable

If you're not starting with Toby Greene then you may as well not bother starting at all.

Jesse Hogan had more talent in his cancerous testicle than pretty much every other player around has. Why would be try when he was stuck at shower clubs like Melbourne and Fremantle? AA CHF coming up once he starts trying.

Jeremy Cameron used to be pretty good... Until Jake Riccardi showed up and has been Jezza got the flick. JR will win the Coleman and average well over 115 in the process.

Quote from: ///////////////////////// on February 11, 2021, 01:51:05 AM
If you're not starting with Toby Greene then you may as well not bother starting at all.

Jesse Hogan had more talent in his cancerous testicle than pretty much every other player around has. Why would be try when he was stuck at shower clubs like Melbourne and Fremantle? AA CHF coming up once he starts trying.

Jeremy Cameron used to be pretty good... Until Jake Riccardi showed up and has been Jezza got the flick. JR will win the Coleman and average well over 115 in the process.

Um....passionate GWS supporter perhaps  :P

Greene a option but needs more mid time. A resounding NO to other two for SC/fantasy purposes  ;D

Quote from: walloo44 on February 02, 2021, 03:08:15 PM
My thoughts on the main forwards, and how options seem bleak this year

Danger - injury pre season and forward time looming large

Sidebottom - super expensive for an aging player who will likely play forward for extended periods

Hawkins - Cameron in, no

Dunkley - treloar added and he could easily get squeezed as we see all the time

Marshall - seems safe and a good ruck cover but not a high ceiling

Dusty - how much will he play forward, do Richmond slow down and younger mids  coming through (Graham Ross Bolton)

Walters - plays forward a lot and can be up and down. Freos young mids also ready to take over

Zorko - similar to Walters

Heeney - eh will he ever be what we think he can be? No doubts he will be largely a forward still as he’s too important there, ceiling not great

Butters/Bolton- breakout potential by not worth the risk of starting them

Degoey - see above


Daniher - sure he’s cheap and can score, but His best year their forward line was Stanton, booker, francis, fantasia, colyer. Not exactly the same quality as Brisbane’s

Zieball - sure he’s at halfback and cheap but he’s one of the worst kicks in the AFL and the role may not last. He’s also getting older and is a huge bust candidate

You've summed it up perfectly, walloo44.

I'm following my gut like I did last season, and stepping off the template.

I'm starting with Heeney at F1.

In my team, every forward will be a value pick.

It's not as crazy as it sounds, when you think about the trading cycle to achieve the objective of completing your team.

You want 12 - 14 Keepers going into Round 1. That means 18 - 20 trades to complete your team, depending on whether your structure leans towards Guns n' Rookies or Mid-Pricer.

If I run with with Heeney at F1, it allows for a keeper at D4, keeper at M6, and Gawn - Grundy in the Rucks. In total, 12 Keepers. I have Rozee at F2, whom I've tagged as a keeper (don't jump on this pick... I'm getting Rozee in any structure).

This set-up requires 18 trades to complete my team, with 12 trades for corrections and injuries.

If I run with two premium Forwards (+500K) + Heeney, with Gawn-Grundy in the rucks, I'm looking at 23 trades to complete my team (and too many Rookies on the field).

If I run with Grundy-Preuss, one of those +500k forwards needs to be Marshall (sorry, not for me), and you still end up with a structure that takes 21 trades to complete.

The above structures takes more trades to complete your team than usual, because this year's ultra-premium are carrying an additional 30k - 50k in value.

So yeah... I'm trusting my read and running with Heeney at F1.

As summed up by walloo44, the biggest query on premiums is in the forward line.

.. And the best valued mid-pricers are also on the forward line.

Don't look for balance across the different lines is my view.... look for 12-14 keepers, and let the Rookies and Mid-Pricers dictate your structure.

Nobody can convince me this year's premium forward options are strong.

For the record... I don't have Daniher (don't trust his body).

Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 14, 2021, 09:14:14 AM
Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Good point, RD. Thanks.

My confidence in Heeney isn't great. (I start with him every year, and he rewards me and burns me in equal parts every time).

My confidence is more in the structure i.e. over balance your keepers in defence, mids, and rucks... and seek out every ounce of value in the forwards.

I have a plan B, C, & D... but it's within this framework.

Heeney could become Zac Bailey (sideways, not crazy about it, a little too speculative for mine... but I like to take 1-2 lateral picks every season)... or Butters (more inclined, as I have a strong feeling about Butters and Rozee this year)... or... downgrade Heeney to Daniher, and upgrade my current M6 (Cunnington) to Zac Merrett.

Doesn't affect my expected points total, or trades-to-complete.

But yeah... if I run with Gawn-Grundy, and therefore don't need Marshall for the loop, I'm going with my read and weighting my keepers in a way I've never done before i.e. totally disregarding the forward premiums.

With the queries over Heeney (and others), it's possible I'll end up starting with Rozee at F1!!!!

It looks bad to the eye, but I still have the same ratio of ultra-premiums, premiums, keepers, mid-pricers, rookies... and the same expected early season points return... with the same number of trades-to-complete.

The bet I'm taking is that as the season unfolds, and the player prices change, the difference between the low-end mid-pricers on the forward line, & the premiums on the forward line, will be significantly lower than on the other lines. If I'm right, I'm going to complete my team a good few weeks before those who start with 2-3 500K+ forwards.

Of course, I may be wrong!!

I feel like I'm taking a risk without risking everything, if that makes sense.

It can't hurt me too badly, but it may help me greatly.

I'm very committed to this structure.

Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 14, 2021, 11:56:50 PM

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 14, 2021, 09:14:14 AM
Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Good point, RD. Thanks.

My confidence in Heeney isn't great. (I start with him every year, and he rewards me and burns me in equal parts every time).

My confidence is more in the structure i.e. over balance your keepers in defence, mids, and rucks... and seek out every ounce of value in the forwards.

I have a plan B, C, & D... but it's within this framework.

Heeney could become Zac Bailey (sideways, not crazy about it, a little too speculative for mine... but I like to take 1-2 lateral picks every season)... or Butters (more inclined, as I have a strong feeling about Butters and Rozee this year)... or... downgrade Heeney to Daniher, and upgrade my current M6 (Cunnington) to Zac Merrett.

Doesn't affect my expected points total, or trades-to-complete.

But yeah... if I run with Gawn-Grundy, and therefore don't need Marshall for the loop, I'm going with my read and weighting my keepers in a way I've never done before i.e. totally disregarding the forward premiums.

With the queries over Heeney (and others), it's possible I'll end up starting with Rozee at F1!!!!

It looks bad to the eye, but I still have the same ratio of ultra-premiums, premiums, keepers, mid-pricers, rookies... and the same expected early season points return... with the same number of trades-to-complete.

The bet I'm taking is that as the season unfolds, and the player prices change, the difference between the low-end mid-pricers on the forward line, & the premiums on the forward line, will be significantly lower than on the other lines. If I'm right, I'm going to complete my team a good few weeks before those who start with 2-3 500K+ forwards.

Of course, I may be wrong!!

I feel like I'm taking a risk without risking everything, if that makes sense.

It can't hurt me too badly, but it may help me greatly.

I'm very committed to this structure.

The forward premos are an interesting bunch this year and with the value of JZ and Daniher there is the opportunity to spend a bit more elsewhere so I don’t disagree with what you have said. Not starting the expensive forwards is probably not going to burn you.
I am starting to come around to your point of view but probably won’t take it as far. I still see value in having Marshall fwd as ruck cover and someone like Dusty who will be solid.
I planned on starting Dangerfield but now I am beginning to think about getting someone like Rozee myself. Danger/123k mid rookie   to Rozee/Tom Green looks okay to me.
The queries over Danger Heeney Buddy and co are making us think of getting players we probably wouldn’t consider otherwise. I feel choosing some up and comers may be the way to go this year as I think the expensive forwards will drop somewhat or barely maintain their price as we see which ones are the ones to get. Dunkley is the unknown who could go huge but I haven’t given him much thought to be honest with the doggies mix.

Dunkley and Marshall are locked for me

I might look at a cheaper F3 - someone like Jezza Cameron, Rozee etc, and then JZ, Daniher and Impey are all in contention to fill out the rest of the line too

Dunkley was thrown all over the park last year and still averaged 104. Safe as houses for Top 6 and priced well

Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 14, 2021, 11:56:50 PM

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 14, 2021, 09:14:14 AM
Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Good point, RD. Thanks.

My confidence in Heeney isn't great. (I start with him every year, and he rewards me and burns me in equal parts every time).

My confidence is more in the structure i.e. over balance your keepers in defence, mids, and rucks... and seek out every ounce of value in the forwards.

I have a plan B, C, & D... but it's within this framework.

Heeney could become Zac Bailey (sideways, not crazy about it, a little too speculative for mine... but I like to take 1-2 lateral picks every season)... or Butters (more inclined, as I have a strong feeling about Butters and Rozee this year)... or... downgrade Heeney to Daniher, and upgrade my current M6 (Cunnington) to Zac Merrett.

Doesn't affect my expected points total, or trades-to-complete.

But yeah... if I run with Gawn-Grundy, and therefore don't need Marshall for the loop, I'm going with my read and weighting my keepers in a way I've never done before i.e. totally disregarding the forward premiums.

With the queries over Heeney (and others), it's possible I'll end up starting with Rozee at F1!!!!

It looks bad to the eye, but I still have the same ratio of ultra-premiums, premiums, keepers, mid-pricers, rookies... and the same expected early season points return... with the same number of trades-to-complete.

The bet I'm taking is that as the season unfolds, and the player prices change, the difference between the low-end mid-pricers on the forward line, & the premiums on the forward line, will be significantly lower than on the other lines. If I'm right, I'm going to complete my team a good few weeks before those who start with 2-3 500K+ forwards.

Of course, I may be wrong!!

I feel like I'm taking a risk without risking everything, if that makes sense.

It can't hurt me too badly, but it may help me greatly.

I'm very committed to this structure.

About 5 seasons ago I used to be as passionate and planned as you Collie.

Then I just accepted there are far too many variables and a good sprinkling of luck to get into the top 100 of SC to bother being so well planned.

IMO your over baking it...by lots....but meh...even after 20 years or however long its ran for planning just doesnt work out.

Yes I have a list of things that I have learnt and try to stick by that get me around 5k ranking every year...but Ive learnt  rd 1 team is most important, after then its just curveballs...trying to plan for future trades doesnt happen....ever

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 15, 2021, 05:45:25 PM
Dunkley and Marshall are locked for me

I might look at a cheaper F3 - someone like Jezza Cameron, Rozee etc, and then JZ, Daniher and Impey are all in contention to fill out the rest of the line too

Dunkley was thrown all over the park last year and still averaged 104. Safe as houses for Top 6 and priced well

Treloar already injured probably helps both Dunkley and Macrae.

I've never been a big subscriber to the theory that you can't have multiple SC guns from the one team, however the Dogs midfield is an absolute clusterf**k and I'm probably going to avoid it. You have Bont, Macrae, Dunkley, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Lipinski, Treloar and probably a couple of other guys that will rotate through there like Richards and West if he plays. That's way too many mouths to feed and only so many minutes that are available.

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 15, 2021, 09:11:25 PM

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 15, 2021, 05:45:25 PM
Dunkley and Marshall are locked for me

I might look at a cheaper F3 - someone like Jezza Cameron, Rozee etc, and then JZ, Daniher and Impey are all in contention to fill out the rest of the line too

Dunkley was thrown all over the park last year and still averaged 104. Safe as houses for Top 6 and priced well

Treloar already injured probably helps both Dunkley and Macrae.

I've never been a big subscriber to the theory that you can't have multiple SC guns from the one team, however the Dogs midfield is an absolute clusterf**k and I'm probably going to avoid it. You have Bont, Macrae, Dunkley, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Lipinski, Treloar and probably a couple of other guys that will rotate through there like Richards and West if he plays. That's way too many mouths to feed and only so many minutes that are available.

Agree, which is why I doubt I'd start any of their mids, but Dunkley as a forward is a different proposition - he'll easily be Top 6, is priced reasonably, and last year showed us he can score well when NOT in the mids all the time, so I just don't understand why people are turned off by him, but hey, fine by me

I think it's because Dunkley was thrown in as the secondary ruck which had him around the ball. They're expecting to not use him as the secondary ruck this year which will see those tackles/possessions disappear.

I also don't expect them to use Stef Martin at all but I'd be curious to see the Dogs set up. I feel Dunkley is the guy with the highest ceiling, but I don't trust the coach and would rather see how it plays out over the first 6 weeks

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 15, 2021, 09:43:23 PM
I think it's because Dunkley was thrown in as the secondary ruck which had him around the ball. They're expecting to not use him as the secondary ruck this year which will see those tackles/possessions disappear.

I also don't expect them to use Stef Martin at all but I'd be curious to see the Dogs set up. I feel Dunkley is the guy with the highest ceiling, but I don't trust the coach and would rather see how it plays out over the first 6 weeks

I read recently that they're definitely going to be playing Stef

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 15, 2021, 11:58:03 PM
I read recently that they're definitely going to be playing Stef

He can't play forward and they're not going to push English out of the number 1 role. That will last a couple weeks and they'll be back to Bruce/Dunkley

Quote from: bowyanger on February 15, 2021, 08:43:40 PM

Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 14, 2021, 11:56:50 PM

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 14, 2021, 09:14:14 AM
Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Good point, RD. Thanks.

My confidence in Heeney isn't great. (I start with him every year, and he rewards me and burns me in equal parts every time).

My confidence is more in the structure i.e. over balance your keepers in defence, mids, and rucks... and seek out every ounce of value in the forwards.

I have a plan B, C, & D... but it's within this framework.

Heeney could become Zac Bailey (sideways, not crazy about it, a little too speculative for mine... but I like to take 1-2 lateral picks every season)... or Butters (more inclined, as I have a strong feeling about Butters and Rozee this year)... or... downgrade Heeney to Daniher, and upgrade my current M6 (Cunnington) to Zac Merrett.

Doesn't affect my expected points total, or trades-to-complete.

But yeah... if I run with Gawn-Grundy, and therefore don't need Marshall for the loop, I'm going with my read and weighting my keepers in a way I've never done before i.e. totally disregarding the forward premiums.

With the queries over Heeney (and others), it's possible I'll end up starting with Rozee at F1!!!!

It looks bad to the eye, but I still have the same ratio of ultra-premiums, premiums, keepers, mid-pricers, rookies... and the same expected early season points return... with the same number of trades-to-complete.

The bet I'm taking is that as the season unfolds, and the player prices change, the difference between the low-end mid-pricers on the forward line, & the premiums on the forward line, will be significantly lower than on the other lines. If I'm right, I'm going to complete my team a good few weeks before those who start with 2-3 500K+ forwards.

Of course, I may be wrong!!

I feel like I'm taking a risk without risking everything, if that makes sense.

It can't hurt me too badly, but it may help me greatly.

I'm very committed to this structure.

About 5 seasons ago I used to be as passionate and planned as you Collie.

Then I just accepted there are far too many variables and a good sprinkling of luck to get into the top 100 of SC to bother being so well planned.

IMO your over baking it...by lots....but meh...even after 20 years or however long its ran for planning just doesnt work out.

Yes I have a list of things that I have learnt and try to stick by that get me around 5k ranking every year...but Ive learnt  rd 1 team is most important, after then its just curveballs...trying to plan for future trades doesnt happen....ever

I'm in my 17th season and still not burnt out  ;)

Most of us are too passionate about this silly game for our own good... that's precisely why I love coming here.

Games of strategy and chance (fantasy sports, poker etc.) are meant to have an element of luck. That's the whole point. It's what makes it great. A poor player can have a great season; and a good player can have a bad season.

The challenge is to apply strategy so you're less reliant on luck than the crowd (so you're profitable lifetime).

Fair enough if you think I'm overbaking it 'lots'...

For me, every season is its own unique problem to solve.

Last season, after Round 1 lockdown, I figured out a line... I ended up finishing 760th overall (after getting as high as 50th / my best finish overall is 53rd). 

Some people play Sudoku... I prefer Supercoach.

---

What's not overbaking it is knowing the following things about your team:

- your 12 - 14 keepers
- your mid-pricers that are cash cows v. your mid-pricers that are keepers
- how many trades you need to complete your team (shouldn't be more than 21)
- how many trades left over for injuries and corrections (shouldn't be less than 9)

You don't need passion to answer these questions... you need ten minutes

--

All I'm saying is the value this season is on the forward line, and starting with Rozee (Heeney) at F1 might be optimal.

If that's overbaking it... cool.

Most seasons, your Ruck set-up determines your structure.

This season, your Forward set-up determines your structure.

Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 13, 2021, 11:36:23 PM

Quote from: walloo44 on February 02, 2021, 03:08:15 PM
My thoughts on the main forwards, and how options seem bleak this year

Danger - injury pre season and forward time looming large

Sidebottom - super expensive for an aging player who will likely play forward for extended periods

Hawkins - Cameron in, no

Dunkley - treloar added and he could easily get squeezed as we see all the time

Marshall - seems safe and a good ruck cover but not a high ceiling

Dusty - how much will he play forward, do Richmond slow down and younger mids  coming through (Graham Ross Bolton)

Walters - plays forward a lot and can be up and down. Freos young mids also ready to take over

Zorko - similar to Walters

Heeney - eh will he ever be what we think he can be? No doubts he will be largely a forward still as he’s too important there, ceiling not great

Butters/Bolton- breakout potential by not worth the risk of starting them

Degoey - see above


Daniher - sure he’s cheap and can score, but His best year their forward line was Stanton, booker, francis, fantasia, colyer. Not exactly the same quality as Brisbane’s

Zieball - sure he’s at halfback and cheap but he’s one of the worst kicks in the AFL and the role may not last. He’s also getting older and is a huge bust candidate

You've summed it up perfectly, walloo44.

I'm following my gut like I did last season, and stepping off the template.

I'm starting with Heeney at F1.

In my team, every forward will be a value pick.

It's not as crazy as it sounds, when you think about the trading cycle to achieve the objective of completing your team.

You want 12 - 14 Keepers going into Round 1. That means 18 - 20 trades to complete your team, depending on whether your structure leans towards Guns n' Rookies or Mid-Pricer.

If I run with with Heeney at F1, it allows for a keeper at D4, keeper at M6, and Gawn - Grundy in the Rucks. In total, 12 Keepers. I have Rozee at F2, whom I've tagged as a keeper (don't jump on this pick... I'm getting Rozee in any structure).

This set-up requires 18 trades to complete my team, with 12 trades for corrections and injuries.

If I run with two premium Forwards (+500K) + Heeney, with Gawn-Grundy in the rucks, I'm looking at 23 trades to complete my team (and too many Rookies on the field).

If I run with Grundy-Preuss, one of those +500k forwards needs to be Marshall (sorry, not for me), and you still end up with a structure that takes 21 trades to complete.

The above structures takes more trades to complete your team than usual, because this year's ultra-premium are carrying an additional 30k - 50k in value.

So yeah... I'm trusting my read and running with Heeney at F1.

As summed up by walloo44, the biggest query on premiums is in the forward line.

.. And the best valued mid-pricers are also on the forward line.

Don't look for balance across the different lines is my view.... look for 12-14 keepers, and let the Rookies and Mid-Pricers dictate your structure.

Nobody can convince me this year's premium forward options are strong.

For the record... I don't have Daniher (don't trust his body).

;)

Hi Colley.  Been looking patiently through all comments on the forward line looking for someone who mentions Rozee. I have an extraordinarily strong feeling that he might be his break out season. And at the price the worst we could do is make some money anyway. My current f/w line is Marshall, Dusty, Rozee, Ziebell, Daniher and Impy  //  Rowe,  Spicer. Going with the G,G ruck and have 10 prem keepers plus Rowell, Rozee and Taranto with Grainger-Barrass, L Jones and T Powell as the only on field rookies.
Let's hope we're both on the ball, cheers and best of luck.

:)

My current structure has landed on Martin/Dunkley (Both play rnd 14), Marshall, Heeney. Sucks that only 1 plays Rnd 14 but will work with it.

Needing GG now with Preuss out and no Marshall either. Bad day for SC rucks.
Anyway in order to run Gawn and Grundy the forwards have taken the hit.

Dusty, Rozee, JZ, Daniher, Impey, Cockatoo (Macrae, Saunders)

Not wrapped about it. Actually looking at it now as I post I reckon it’s crap. Not sure what I’m going to do.

Grundy Draper for me allows Dunkley Martin Heeney JoeD Imp MacRae Chugg Rowe

Quote from: Ingram on February 18, 2021, 04:06:40 AM
Grundy Draper for me allows Dunkley Martin Heeney JoeD Imp MacRae Chugg Rowe

Hi Ing.  Heeney unlikely for round 1 and also likely to be playing deep forward.

Quote from: Sabretooth Tigers on February 17, 2021, 09:37:22 PM

Quote from: enzedder on February 17, 2021, 08:51:30 PM
Needing GG now with Preuss out and no Marshall either. Bad day for SC rucks.
Anyway in order to run Gawn and Grundy the forwards have taken the hit.

Dusty, Rozee, JZ, Daniher, Impey, Cockatoo (Macrae, Saunders)

Not wrapped about it. Actually looking at it now as I post I reckon it’s crap. Not sure what I’m going to do.

Can only make plans for each line independently for each rookie scenario. if there is a line that attracts several playing rookies then that's the one to go thin on. Either that or dropping down price wise on some of the prems,  ie Rowell, Walsh, Cripps and Taranto etc. As far as Marshall goes I'm replacing him with Ladhams, pending selection, and keeping the change to get him back in.

Change of plan.
Marshall stays in side and I'll carry him for a round if that is all he'll miss. Worth it to save a trade in a year that could be even more unpredictable than the last.

;)

Quote from: Sabretooth Tigers on February 18, 2021, 05:52:12 AM

Quote from: Sabretooth Tigers on February 17, 2021, 09:37:22 PM

Quote from: enzedder on February 17, 2021, 08:51:30 PM
Needing GG now with Preuss out and no Marshall either. Bad day for SC rucks.
Anyway in order to run Gawn and Grundy the forwards have taken the hit.

Dusty, Rozee, JZ, Daniher, Impey, Cockatoo (Macrae, Saunders)

Not wrapped about it. Actually looking at it now as I post I reckon it’s crap. Not sure what I’m going to do.

Can only make plans for each line independently for each rookie scenario. if there is a line that attracts several playing rookies then that's the one to go thin on. Either that or dropping down price wise on some of the prems,  ie Rowell, Walsh, Cripps and Taranto etc. As far as Marshall goes I'm replacing him with Ladhams, pending selection, and keeping the change to get him back in.

Change of plan.
Marshall stays in side and I'll carry him for a round if that is all he'll miss. Worth it to save a trade in a year that could be even more unpredictable than the last.

;)

Saints have said these type of injuries need to be monitored and take time with. There is no clear timeline in place. Stress injuries can drag on and recur. Think it’s unwise to start him and hope he plays R2 or soon enough.

Restructure underway,
GG option most likely now,   Marshall becomes Dunkley,  Treacy becomes Flynn.
Keeping my options open on Ladhams, had him in my first couple of teams.   200K in the bank,  can upgrade F4 rookie to JZ as well..  Wait and see where the put him.   Around the ball or half back and I start him.  Fwd no.

 ::)

Currently looking at

Dangerfield,  Dusty,  Rozee,  Ziebell,  Daniher,  Impey    //  Rowe,  Spicer.

This set up enables me to run three rookies only on field, all of which are in defence And if we have a nightmare of a selection night for Rd,1 I can make it zero by downgrading Danger to Caldwell, which of course I really don't want to do but at least I have already planned options if the worst happens. This latest option would still give me 9 prem keepers plus Rowell, Taranto and Rozee as chances. Think we should all have a team planned for the worst possible outcome just in case. Planning for the worst whilst hoping for the best, sounds like a great explanation of what playing SC is like.

;)

Quote from: Sabretooth Tigers on February 20, 2021, 01:20:19 AM
::)

Currently looking at

Dangerfield,  Dusty,  Rozee,  Ziebell,  Daniher,  Impey    //  Rowe,  Spicer.

This set up enables me to run three rookies only on field, all of which are in defence And if we have a nightmare of a selection night for Rd,1 I can make it zero by downgrading Danger to Caldwell, which of course I really don't want to do but at least I have already planned options if the worst happens. This latest option would still give me 9 prem keepers plus Rowell, Taranto and Rozee as chances. Think we should all have a team planned for the worst possible outcome just in case. Planning for the worst whilst hoping for the best, sounds like a great explanation of what playing SC is like.

;)

Really like that forward set up mate. Same as mine in fact if I bring Danger in via a ZMerrett swap and run with Green at M5.
Danger is getting on but now there is positive press about his R1 status, being on top of his groin injury and playing mainly midfield he is seemingly a must have.
Dusty is the solid safe pick in the forward premo category. Will be top 6 so set and forget.
Rozee is cheap and still on the rise. Good pick IMO.
JZ, Daniher and Impey are all best 22, cheap and pick themselves as cash cows; they make Gawn, Grundy, Lloyd and Neale affordable.

 :)

Thanks enz, Think I'll sit on this one, pending injuries, until Rd.1 selection night/ Fit and firing and in the midfield I think Danger is a good selection. Cheers and best of luck.

;)

Quote from: Sabretooth Tigers on February 20, 2021, 01:20:19 AM
::)

Currently looking at

Dangerfield,  Dusty,  Rozee,  Ziebell,  Daniher,  Impey    //  Rowe,  Spicer.

This set up enables me to run three rookies only on field, all of which are in defence And if we have a nightmare of a selection night for Rd,1 I can make it zero by downgrading Danger to Caldwell, which of course I really don't want to do but at least I have already planned options if the worst happens. This latest option would still give me 9 prem keepers plus Rowell, Taranto and Rozee as chances. Think we should all have a team planned for the worst possible outcome just in case. Planning for the worst whilst hoping for the best, sounds like a great explanation of what playing SC is like.

;)

Strongest I've seen, and closest to what I like.

Mine is one piece weaker:

Dusty, Rozee, Ziebell, Daniher, Impey, Campbell // Rowe, Spicer

(That's because my lack of confidence in the defensive Rookies is seeing me overspend with five defensive keepers :-\)

Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 20, 2021, 11:38:24 PM

Quote from: Sabretooth Tigers on February 20, 2021, 01:20:19 AM
::)

Currently looking at

Dangerfield,  Dusty,  Rozee,  Ziebell,  Daniher,  Impey    //  Rowe,  Spicer.

This set up enables me to run three rookies only on field, all of which are in defence And if we have a nightmare of a selection night for Rd,1 I can make it zero by downgrading Danger to Caldwell, which of course I really don't want to do but at least I have already planned options if the worst happens. This latest option would still give me 9 prem keepers plus Rowell, Taranto and Rozee as chances. Think we should all have a team planned for the worst possible outcome just in case. Planning for the worst whilst hoping for the best, sounds like a great explanation of what playing SC is like.

;)

Strongest I've seen, and closest to what I like.

Mine is one piece weaker:

Dusty, Rozee, Ziebell, Daniher, Impey, Campbell // Rowe, Spicer

(That's because my lack of confidence in the defensive Rookies is seeing me overspend with five defensive keepers :-\)

:)

Thanks for the comments cd, would like to start this lline. Have L Jones, J Wehr, W Gould //  Highmore and Chugg in defence. But can mend things by a midfield downgrade if necessary. Just waiting for selection night now. Cheers and best of luck.

;)

Rozee foot injury needing to be managed has seen me ditch him from my team.
As I don’t like any other options around his price I’ve ditched another mid price option (Milera) to bring in a gun and a rookie.
Luke Ryan and Fullarton are placeholders at the moment.

Quote from: enzedder on February 27, 2021, 07:20:11 AM
Rozee foot injury needing to be managed has seen me ditch him from my team.
As I don’t like any other options around his price I’ve ditched another mid price option (Milera) to bring in a gun and a rookie.
Luke Ryan and Fullarton are placeholders at the moment.

better option than two punts on milera and rozee nz.   think it is an upgrade

Rayner could have a Trac like breakout this year. Apparently played predominantly midfield in the practice match and dominated. I still need to see his fitness levels are up to pick him but he could be a nice mid price option

Quote from: enzedder on February 27, 2021, 07:20:11 AM
Rozee foot injury needing to be managed has seen me ditch him from my team.
As I don’t like any other options around his price I’ve ditched another mid price option (Milera) to bring in a gun and a rookie.
Luke Ryan and Fullarton are placeholders at the moment.

FYI Luke Ryan had knee to the back in todays scratch match v wce! Did not return to the field and no post match running.

Wait for official comments tomorrow

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 28, 2021, 01:15:03 AM
Rayner could have a Trac like breakout this year. Apparently played predominantly midfield in the practice match and dominated. I still need to see his fitness levels are up to pick him but he could be a nice mid price option

Picking players on pre season form has bitten me many times and I want to say I have learnt to ignore it

buuttt.....

Ive been watching Rayner closely and have been tempted to pick him the last 2 years - glad I didnt

The lions have some serious midfield depth, unless theres an injury I cant see Rayner playing mid >50% ToG

Zorko, CEY, Berry, Neale, McLuggage, Robbo, Lyons , even Bailey rolled through a couple of times last year.

I dont have the Kahunas to start him, but will be watching his form very closely the 1st few rounds

Quote from: bowyanger on March 03, 2021, 09:56:56 AM

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 28, 2021, 01:15:03 AM
Rayner could have a Trac like breakout this year. Apparently played predominantly midfield in the practice match and dominated. I still need to see his fitness levels are up to pick him but he could be a nice mid price option

Picking players on pre season form has bitten me many times and I want to say I have learnt to ignore it

buuttt.....

Ive been watching Rayner closely and have been tempted to pick him the last 2 years - glad I didnt

The lions have some serious midfield depth, unless theres an injury I cant see Rayner playing mid >50% ToG

Zorko, CEY, Berry, Neale, McLuggage, Robbo, Lyons , even Bailey rolled through a couple of times last year.

I dont have the Kahunas to start him, but will be watching his form very closely the 1st few rounds

Like you I have been burned by Rayner and each year saying this could be his break out year.

Zorko I suspect will not rotate as much through mids given his training is being managed because of a lingering injury requiring management, Robbo and CEY may not be in best 22 this year with Ely Smith finally having a full pre-season. 

Will watch the first few games and if Rayner spends considerable time in mids may reassess but think Rayner and Bailey based on pre-season will share time.

Quote from: Ringo on March 03, 2021, 10:55:15 AM

Quote from: bowyanger on March 03, 2021, 09:56:56 AM

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 28, 2021, 01:15:03 AM
Rayner could have a Trac like breakout this year. Apparently played predominantly midfield in the practice match and dominated. I still need to see his fitness levels are up to pick him but he could be a nice mid price option

Picking players on pre season form has bitten me many times and I want to say I have learnt to ignore it

buuttt.....

Ive been watching Rayner closely and have been tempted to pick him the last 2 years - glad I didnt

The lions have some serious midfield depth, unless theres an injury I cant see Rayner playing mid >50% ToG

Zorko, CEY, Berry, Neale, McLuggage, Robbo, Lyons , even Bailey rolled through a couple of times last year.

I dont have the Kahunas to start him, but will be watching his form very closely the 1st few rounds

Like you I have been burned by Rayner and each year saying this could be his break out year.

Zorko I suspect will not rotate as much through mids given his training is being managed because of a lingering injury requiring management, Robbo and CEY may not be in best 22 this year with Ely Smith finally having a full pre-season. 

Will watch the first few games and if Rayner spends considerable time in mids may reassess but think Rayner and Bailey based on pre-season will share time.

Hey Ringo, what do you think Smith's chances are of getting regular games?

Quote from: Hoggyz_a_legend on March 03, 2021, 11:17:18 AM

Quote from: Ringo on March 03, 2021, 10:55:15 AM

Quote from: bowyanger on March 03, 2021, 09:56:56 AM

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 28, 2021, 01:15:03 AM
Rayner could have a Trac like breakout this year. Apparently played predominantly midfield in the practice match and dominated. I still need to see his fitness levels are up to pick him but he could be a nice mid price option

Picking players on pre season form has bitten me many times and I want to say I have learnt to ignore it

buuttt.....

Ive been watching Rayner closely and have been tempted to pick him the last 2 years - glad I didnt

The lions have some serious midfield depth, unless theres an injury I cant see Rayner playing mid >50% ToG

Zorko, CEY, Berry, Neale, McLuggage, Robbo, Lyons , even Bailey rolled through a couple of times last year.

I dont have the Kahunas to start him, but will be watching his form very closely the 1st few rounds

Like you I have been burned by Rayner and each year saying this could be his break out year.

Zorko I suspect will not rotate as much through mids given his training is being managed because of a lingering injury requiring management, Robbo and CEY may not be in best 22 this year with Ely Smith finally having a full pre-season. 

Will watch the first few games and if Rayner spends considerable time in mids may reassess but think Rayner and Bailey based on pre-season will share time.

Hey Ringo, what do you think Smith's chances are of getting regular games?

I believe if named for Rd 1 it will be his position to lose.  Expect him to be named on interchange bench or replacing Robbo on the wing where he played in the intra club and practice match.  He has built up well in the off season,

Quote from: bowyanger on March 03, 2021, 09:56:56 AM
Picking players on pre season form has bitten me many times and I want to say I have learnt to ignore it

buuttt.....

Ive been watching Rayner closely and have been tempted to pick him the last 2 years - glad I didnt

The lions have some serious midfield depth, unless theres an injury I cant see Rayner playing mid >50% ToG

Zorko, CEY, Berry, Neale, McLuggage, Robbo, Lyons , even Bailey rolled through a couple of times last year.

I dont have the Kahunas to start him, but will be watching his form very closely the 1st few rounds

Agreed, you don't pick players off one or two pre-season games. Having said that, you need to take into account the role change and how that will impact their scoring. I really want to watch the Lions pre-season game to see if they're committed to using him as a clearance player. He was looked at as a Dusty/Trac type player that had power, could burst out of stoppages and hit the scoreboard. He hasn't put it together yet and is heading into his 4th season now. Guys typically break out in season 5 so it may be a year early.

Looking at his scoring history his 2019 was absolutely putrid and a lot of that had to do with his fitness and ability to run. He had quite a lot of dud scores last year as well. He had 6 scores 60 and under, 2 tons (3 total in his career) and the rest was a mixed bag. That tends to be the case with guys playing that small forward role. The main thing I want to see is that his fitness base has increased. One thing that attracted me to starting with Petracca last year is how fit he was. He was applying a ton of pressure in the midfield and getting to contest after contest. If Rayner looks this fit he will be really tempting.

Quote from: Ringo on March 03, 2021, 10:55:15 AM
Zorko I suspect will not rotate as much through mids given his training is being managed because of a lingering injury requiring management, Robbo and CEY may not be in best 22 this year with Ely Smith finally having a full pre-season. 

This is from his interview on SEN. I don't think it's due to injury, it's management and age.

QuoteZorko spoke in depth on SEN this week about his new role & challenges for the upcoming season.

“Every player would have to analyse their game at the end of the year & find out what they can do better to help the team.”

“That’s certainly the phase that I’m really looking at my game at the moment, obviously as you get older you look at what’s best for the team & where you can see yourself playing.”

“Obviously for me I’m going to be spending a lot more time forward given the depth of the midfield we have & our younger players coming forward (in experience).”

“Me along with Jed Adcock our forwards coach will be working at what areas I can do in the forward line, whether that be more of a leadership role down there given that I’ve spent a lot of time in the midfield but now coming down forward really trying to take ownership of that forward line along with Charlie Cameron & Eric Hipwood.”

“For me, even being the captain it’s important that you continuously work on your leading skills & being put in different situations & working through different areas.”

Also from that same Zorko interview

Quote“I’d love to see him higher up the ground, I think he has so much to offer.”

“He’s obviously worked extremely hard in the last 18 months on getting his body in the best shape possible, he ran a personal best in the time trials this year.”

“He looks really fit” Dayne Zorko

Rayner was used at 20.7% of Brisbane centre bounces last season, importantly he recorded centre bounce usage in every game that he played.

Zorko was bullish on the impact Rayner has through the middle of the ground & expects a significant increase in usage this season.

“At times last year he played in the midfield & looked really damaging, we’re hoping those minutes can at least double from what I’ve seen so far.”

“He’s certainly putting himself in that bracket to spend a lot of time in that midfield.” Zorko added.

And Dunkley owners beware of of Beveridge playing him anywhere but the midfield.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2021-josh-dunkley-essendon-trade-request-luke-beveridge-says-spot-not-secure/news-story/38d363c3fdcee0300db4684930b57737

Quote
A major reason behind Dunkley’s request to join Essendon was to play more midfield minutes after spending more time in the forward line â€" and occasionally in the ruck â€" at the Bulldogs in 2020.

And Dunkley might struggle to win more on-ball time in 2021, considering the Bulldogs acquired star Adam Treloar from the Magpies to join a midfield group that already includes Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Bailey Smith and Tom Liberatore.

“He’s not at his best at the moment, as far as his production on the ground. He didn’t play his best game against Hawthorn, so he’s fully aware that there’s pressure for game time in any role in our time.

“Every year, you endeavour to bolster your list, ensure its healthy, create new levels of competitiveness â€" and that’s what we’ve been able to do bringing Adam in and keeping Josh â€" so, there’s still pressure on for his spot and the role that he plays. He understands that and he’ll be treated the same as every other player.

“His teammates adore him, he’s always had close connections â€" as much as (the trade request) was a bit of a head-scratcher. We’re in a good place with it.”

JDG at 435k anyone? Looked excellent last night, is this the year he finally puts it all together like Petracca last year? Interchange cap means he’s all but guaranteed to spend much more time in the middle.

Could be a real big POD, but I’ll have to see how Caldwell goes first before I go searching for the cash.

Quote from: IntegralX on March 06, 2021, 10:14:39 AM
JDG at 435k anyone? Looked excellent last night, is this the year he finally puts it all together like Petracca last year? Interchange cap means he’s all but guaranteed to spend much more time in the middle.

Could be a real big POD, but I’ll have to see how Caldwell goes first before I go searching for the cash.

Sidebottom went down last night, but with no Treloar, there's a spot open in the midfield. And as you say, less interchanging means more players need to roll through mids.

He's in my team atm, but far from locked in.

Tony Greene putting his hand up with today’s performance, meanwhile Heeney was...not good. Didn’t get very much mid time either from what I could see. Might be time to make the switch?

Greene always looks amazing this time of year, then he gets an early injury or suspension and is a headache the rest of the season

Quote from: IntegralX on March 07, 2021, 04:35:45 PM
Tony Greene putting his hand up with today’s performance, meanwhile Heeney was...not good. Didn’t get very much mid time either from what I could see. Might be time to make the switch?

Yep time to flick Heeney I think! Greene is not the answer though.

Quote from: Money Shot on March 07, 2021, 06:02:26 PM

Quote from: IntegralX on March 07, 2021, 04:35:45 PM
Tony Greene putting his hand up with today’s performance, meanwhile Heeney was...not good. Didn’t get very much mid time either from what I could see. Might be time to make the switch?

Yep time to flick Heeney I think! Greene is not the answer though.

Why flick Heeney? Golden rule is never ditch a premo based on 1 preseason game. Pretty confident we'll get something around the 95 mark & that is fine for f6.

Quote from: Bully on March 07, 2021, 06:06:04 PM

Quote from: Money Shot on March 07, 2021, 06:02:26 PM

Quote from: IntegralX on March 07, 2021, 04:35:45 PM
Tony Greene putting his hand up with today’s performance, meanwhile Heeney was...not good. Didn’t get very much mid time either from what I could see. Might be time to make the switch?

Yep time to flick Heeney I think! Greene is not the answer though.

Why flick Heeney? Golden rule is never ditch a premo based on 1 preseason game. Pretty confident we'll get something around the 95 mark & that is fine for f6.

Think it’s more role based!

A lot of people would have been hoping he played up the ground more. He looked to be pretty deep forward for most of the game.

To those who watched the game today, how did Butters look?

He keeps tempting me, and that stateline looks tantalizing..

Quote from: Money Shot on March 07, 2021, 08:43:29 PM

Quote from: Bully on March 07, 2021, 06:06:04 PM

Quote from: Money Shot on March 07, 2021, 06:02:26 PM

Quote from: IntegralX on March 07, 2021, 04:35:45 PM
Tony Greene putting his hand up with today’s performance, meanwhile Heeney was...not good. Didn’t get very much mid time either from what I could see. Might be time to make the switch?

Yep time to flick Heeney I think! Greene is not the answer though.

Why flick Heeney? Golden rule is never ditch a premo based on 1 preseason game. Pretty confident we'll get something around the 95 mark & that is fine for f6.

Think it’s more role based!

A lot of people would have been hoping he played up the ground more. He looked to be pretty deep forward for most of the game.

Wasn't he coming in with an injury cloud? In which case he'll probably be eased in.

Heeney has said numerous times this summer, and just a few days ago too, that he will be playing mostly forward this year, with the odd run through the mids

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2021, 08:58:13 PM
Heeney has said numerous times this summer, and just a few days ago too, that he will be playing mostly forward this year, with the odd run through the mids

So he's out of contention in your opinion?

Quote from: Bully on March 07, 2021, 09:02:24 PM

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2021, 08:58:13 PM
Heeney has said numerous times this summer, and just a few days ago too, that he will be playing mostly forward this year, with the odd run through the mids

So he's out of contention in your opinion?

I think he's an option, and should still go 90+ but at this very moment he is not in my side.

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2021, 08:58:13 PM
Heeney has said numerous times this summer, and just a few days ago too, that he will be playing mostly forward this year, with the odd run through the mids

I didn't see Heeney attend a single centre bounce today, although admittedly I wasn't watching very closely. Either way I think even 90+ will be hard for him this season. I might swap him for Greene, JDG or Butters...it's an easy correction trade if I'm wrong.

Tom Phillips anyone? Or was this weeks game just a one off? Cheap at 402k.

Seems he will clearly be back to being a full time wing/mid this year replace Smith who the Hawks lost. Average 90 in 2018 in his third season when playing as a mid. 24 now and entering his prime.

Quote from: dmac07 on March 08, 2021, 10:22:42 AM
Tom Phillips anyone? Or was this weeks game just a one off? Cheap at 402k.

Seems he will clearly be back to being a full time wing/mid this year replace Smith who the Hawks lost. Average 90 in 2018 in his third season when playing as a mid. 24 now and entering his prime.

I got him at a bargain selection in draft but won't be getting him in classic. He has to rack up heaps of the ball because his disposal is so bad. It was a practice match against North. Could be a trap. It all depends on your structure and what else is available at that price range. His scoring floor in the wing role is handy though unless he completely spuds it up.

Quote from: Wanderer on March 08, 2021, 10:38:54 AM

Quote from: dmac07 on March 08, 2021, 10:22:42 AM
Tom Phillips anyone? Or was this weeks game just a one off? Cheap at 402k.

Seems he will clearly be back to being a full time wing/mid this year replace Smith who the Hawks lost. Average 90 in 2018 in his third season when playing as a mid. 24 now and entering his prime.

I got him at a bargain selection in draft but won't be getting him in classic. He has to rack up heaps of the ball because his disposal is so bad. It was a practice match against North. Could be a trap. It all depends on your structure and what else is available at that price range. His scoring floor in the wing role is handy though unless he completely spuds it up.

If we did not have the forward options available definitely one to consider but with so many cheap options available here will be a pass,

Quote from: dmac07 on March 08, 2021, 10:22:42 AM
Tom Phillips anyone? Or was this weeks game just a one off? Cheap at 402k.

Seems he will clearly be back to being a full time wing/mid this year replace Smith who the Hawks lost. Average 90 in 2018 in his third season when playing as a mid. 24 now and entering his prime.

I believe he had a high number of CB's he attended. Mitchell and O'Meara to come back will see that drop. He should still be a decent option but 85-90 is what I'd expect

Quote from: Mat0369 on March 08, 2021, 02:34:40 PM

Quote from: dmac07 on March 08, 2021, 10:22:42 AM
Tom Phillips anyone? Or was this weeks game just a one off? Cheap at 402k.

Seems he will clearly be back to being a full time wing/mid this year replace Smith who the Hawks lost. Average 90 in 2018 in his third season when playing as a mid. 24 now and entering his prime.

I believe he had a high number of CB's he attended. Mitchell and O'Meara to come back will see that drop. He should still be a decent option but 85-90 is what I'd expect

Can't believe people are rolling the dice on these unproven types, this year the forward line is pretty clear cut, no need to get cute.

Is it? Danger and Dusty are the only locks. Everyone else has question marks, then you’re getting into midpricers/exxy rooks.

Quote from: IntegralX on March 09, 2021, 09:28:56 PM
Is it? Danger and Dusty are the only locks. Everyone else has question marks, then you’re getting into midpricers/exxy rooks.

With Sidebottom back in the forwards & Dunkley more than likely cracking the century I don't think it's wise going for the speculative types. Throw in Marshall & Zorko & you have 6 players all capable of going large. If Bolton steps up there's another.

Not sold on Phillips, not sold on De Goey, not sold on Heeney after hearing what the community has to say. Therefore I'll be going with the guys who have been doing it for years.

Sidebottom has a calf which is a recipe for disaster when you're on the wrong side of 30. Dunkley is going to be a yo-yo with Beveridge saying last week his position wasn't safe and then praising him this week.

I personally don't think Danger is worth the coin. Zorko will play exclusively forward which will see him put up some stinkers and be an upgrade target.

Dusty is the one I feel the most comfortable with and I think there is a lot of value/rookies in the forward line so Ziebell at F2 is a goer.

Quote from: Mat0369 on March 10, 2021, 12:12:34 AM
Sidebottom has a calf which is a recipe for disaster when you're on the wrong side of 30. Dunkley is going to be a yo-yo with Beveridge saying last week his position wasn't safe and then praising him this week.

I personally don't think Danger is worth the coin. Zorko will play exclusively forward which will see him put up some stinkers and be an upgrade target.

Dusty is the one I feel the most comfortable with and I think there is a lot of value/rookies in the forward line so Ziebell at F2 is a goer.

I have a totally different take on the situation with all those players, Danger will be a hungry beast with the top ups, last chance saloon. If the decline kicks in it will be when the star recruits start to falter, but you can guarantee he will be switched on this season. Lock in a 100 average at the absolute worst.

Sidebottom doesn't have chronic calf problems yet, he's not Brett Deledio, he's still one of the fittest guys in the competition and he will revel in the uncontested football. Fewer rotations can only make him more valuable. Minumum 95 but I'd back him to crack the ton.

Dunkley is an angry man & will leave next year if he doesn't get the minutes, my gut tells me he will play as a midfielder. I might be wrong but this must have come up in negotiations. Dogs will want to keep him I suspect.

Zorko may play more up forward, still a wait and see. He rarely has a bad year though, the Lions are also flying, pretty safe bet IMO.

Quote from: Bully on March 10, 2021, 12:44:52 AM
I have a totally different take on the situation with all those players, Danger will be a hungry beast with the top ups, last chance saloon. If the decline kicks in it will be when the star recruits start to falter, but you can guarantee he will be switched on this season. Lock in a 100 average at the absolute worst.

The retirement village at Geelong will want to keep guys fresh. While all the talk has been that the Cats will play Danger predominantly through the midfield, they will also want to make sure he is right for September. Coming off a short off-season where he was carrying an injury and the amount of bodies that the Cats can throw in the middle I feel they will give him in game rests like they did last year and play him forward for stretches, particularly if they have big leads. Yes he will have a decent average come the end of the season, but he is also priced more than Fyfe and Mitchell who will also be in the top handful of mids. I'd rather start one of those guys and grab Danger at a cheaper price point while utilising the forward rookies that we have at our advantage.

Quote from: Bully on March 10, 2021, 12:44:52 AM
Sidebottom doesn't have chronic calf problems yet, he's not Brett Deledio, he's still one of the fittest guys in the competition and he will revel in the uncontested football. Fewer rotations can only make him more valuable. Minumum 95 but I'd back him to crack the ton.

No, but he will probably miss round 1 since they're a 2-3 week injury normally so put a line through him as a starter and he has to be an upgrade target

Quote from: Bully on March 10, 2021, 12:44:52 AM
Dunkley is an angry man & will leave next year if he doesn't get the minutes, my gut tells me he will play as a midfielder. I might be wrong but this must have come up in negotiations. Dogs will want to keep him I suspect.

They also have a midfield that consists of Macrae, Bont, Libba, Smith, Lipinski, Treloar, Hunter and West. Smith and Lipinski will lock down the wing roles, Hunter looks to be playing majority forward along with West. Both of them will have spurts on the wing. Macrae, Bont, Libba and Treloar are going to get the majority of the CB set ups with Dunkley sprinkled in. He should still score well enough, but his coach is a headache for SC'ers which could cause your season to flop. I think he is one that is probably worth the risk vs the reward, but he won't be putting up the huge stats he did of a couple seasons ago when he played predominantly as a midfielder.

Quote from: Bully on March 10, 2021, 12:44:52 AM
Zorko may play more up forward, still a wait and see. He rarely has a bad year though, the Lions are also flying, pretty safe bet IMO.

He has scored well in that high half forward role in years past but he always puts up a clunker which inevitably sees his price drop significantly. He is an upgrade target that you should be able to get in the mid 400's range at some point.

Not suggesting you start all of them but I'll be aiming towards a midfield of Danger, Martin, Dunkley, Sidebottom, Marshall, Zorko.

That may change of course but the minimum for F6 should be 100. Don't reckon Phillips gets there, I'd probably have a stab at Bolton if a mid pricer was the only option although trying to pick a breakout player is a tricky business. Sometimes better to observe on the sidelines for a few rounds.

With Rayner out, more midfield minutes will open up for Zorko.

JDG attended 67% of centre bounces in the preseason. I imagine that goes down when Adams returns, but does that change anyone’s mind on him?

I’m currently rocking Butters at F1.

Quote from: Wanderer on March 10, 2021, 10:36:50 AM
With Rayner out, more midfield minutes will open up for Zorko.

Lol i was listening to a podcast yesterday, SuperCoach elites, and someone sent in asking this question (if Zorko would get more minutes now Rayner is out), they absolutely took the piss out of the guy asking the question and said they don’t play a similar role

It was at that very moment I stopped taking them seriously as proper SuperCoach analysis

Quote from: bkimm32 on March 10, 2021, 10:57:02 AM

Quote from: Wanderer on March 10, 2021, 10:36:50 AM
With Rayner out, more midfield minutes will open up for Zorko.

Lol i was listening to a podcast yesterday, SuperCoach elites, and someone sent in asking this question (if Zorko would get more minutes now Rayner is out), they absolutely took the piss out of the guy asking the question and said they don’t play a similar role

It was at that very moment I stopped taking them seriously as proper SuperCoach analysis

wonder what role they think each guy would play in the mid.

Quote from: Holz on March 10, 2021, 11:06:44 AM

Quote from: bkimm32 on March 10, 2021, 10:57:02 AM

Quote from: Wanderer on March 10, 2021, 10:36:50 AM
With Rayner out, more midfield minutes will open up for Zorko.

Lol i was listening to a podcast yesterday, SuperCoach elites, and someone sent in asking this question (if Zorko would get more minutes now Rayner is out), they absolutely took the piss out of the guy asking the question and said they don’t play a similar role

It was at that very moment I stopped taking them seriously as proper SuperCoach analysis

wonder what role they think each guy would play in the mid.

Idk but midfields midfield.

When one on baller goes down, it opens up time for another time come in.

Quote from: Wanderer on March 10, 2021, 10:36:50 AM
With Rayner out, more midfield minutes will open up for Zorko.

Just watch Lions selection though. He may get mid time through rotations and if Ely Smith, Mattheson or CEY are brought in suggests he will be predominantly forward,  In saying that I have him F1 at the moment.

Has anyone given any thought to Toby Greene?

Quote from: TexR74 on March 10, 2021, 09:15:10 PM
Has anyone given any thought to Toby Greene?

He is tempting every year but personally, I just can’t trust him!

Would rather go a Dunkley/Martin type or a Ziebell/Daniher type.

Quote from: Money Shot on March 10, 2021, 09:21:50 PM

Quote from: TexR74 on March 10, 2021, 09:15:10 PM
Has anyone given any thought to Toby Greene?

He is tempting every year but personally, I just can’t trust him!

Would rather go a Dunkley/Martin type or a Ziebell/Daniher type.

Always consider. When I do it always backfires.

Greene & Rocky are the two biggest burn men.

Quote from: Qwerty7698 on March 11, 2021, 01:12:04 AM
Anyone going fantasia

Not me personally. I just see a lot more value esewhere such as Phillips, Caldwell, Higgins etc

Atkins anyone

Quote from: whynot102 on March 17, 2021, 06:48:15 PM
Atkins anyone

As in Tom? Pass. I feel like he will be more a lockdown defender for them

Anyone else struggling to understand how Dunkley is in 37% of teams.

560k is a lot of cash to stump up for a guy with an undefined role. Dogs midfield is stacked. Bont, Jack Mac, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Treloar (when fit) etc all running through there. Am I missing something?

Quote from: Brikett on March 17, 2021, 10:21:50 PM
Anyone else struggling to understand how Dunkley is in 37% of teams.

560k is a lot of cash to stump up for a guy with an undefined role. Dogs midfield is stacked. Bont, Jack Mac, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Treloar (when fit) etc all running through there. Am I missing something?

His role was undefined last year and he averaged 104

Quote from: Brikett on March 17, 2021, 10:21:50 PM
Anyone else struggling to understand how Dunkley is in 37% of teams.

560k is a lot of cash to stump up for a guy with an undefined role. Dogs midfield is stacked. Bont, Jack Mac, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Treloar (when fit) etc all running through there. Am I missing something?

Upside is still huge - even if he spends more time forward he has the talent to be a top 6 mid.

See him matching last year’s average at absolute worst.

And if they want any hope of keeping him long term then he’s gonna get mid time.

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 17, 2021, 11:11:06 PM

Quote from: Brikett on March 17, 2021, 10:21:50 PM
Anyone else struggling to understand how Dunkley is in 37% of teams.

560k is a lot of cash to stump up for a guy with an undefined role. Dogs midfield is stacked. Bont, Jack Mac, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Treloar (when fit) etc all running through there. Am I missing something?

His role was undefined last year and he averaged 104

He's a top 6 forward in my opinion, not quite sure about the ceiling but you can safely lock away 100.

Quote from: Brikett on March 17, 2021, 10:21:50 PM
Anyone else struggling to understand how Dunkley is in 37% of teams.

560k is a lot of cash to stump up for a guy with an undefined role. Dogs midfield is stacked. Bont, Jack Mac, Hunter, Libba, Smith, Treloar (when fit) etc all running through there. Am I missing something?

Add to that the second ruck role will be taken by Stef Martin. I can't see him getting to 100 ave, but happy to be proven wrong.

Quote from: JBs-Hawks on March 17, 2021, 11:35:10 PM
And if they want any hope of keeping him long term then he’s gonna get mid time.

Yep him and Libba are best inside mids I'm still surprised Essendon didn't cough up 2 first round picks for him and the Doggies won't be so lucky if that situation is allowed to happen again

He's never really been SC relevant but Stringer scored 124 from 77% TOG. He's 282k and could be a 2nd chance for those that passed on Tex.

Had quite a few CBAs too. On the watchlist, see how ge goes against Sydney...

My forward line is currently Heeney, Tex, JZ, Impey, Joe, Warner and I have Dunkley in the mids which I will eventually move forward

My forward line might already be complete for the year  ;D ;D ;D

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 06, 2021, 07:59:38 AM
My forward line is currently Heeney, Tex, JZ, Impey, Joe, Warner and I have Dunkley in the mids which I will eventually move forward

My forward line might already be complete for the year  ;D ;D ;D

what about Dusty.... surely better than Joe and warner

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 06, 2021, 07:59:38 AM
My forward line is currently Heeney, Tex, JZ, Impey, Joe, Warner and I have Dunkley in the mids which I will eventually move forward

My forward line might already be complete for the year  ;D ;D ;D

That will hold up for awhile but I'd be happy to go head to head with you with guys like Zorko, Dusty & Sidebottom.

That was nearly 3 weeks ago, and I was clearly joking  :P

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 23, 2021, 04:13:29 PM
That was nearly 3 weeks ago, and I was clearly joking  :P

Should have checked the date.  :P

Dunkley clearly the number 1 forward.
Who are the top 5?

Dunks, Dusty, Butters...maybe Ziebell and Marshall?

Quote from: oh_lol on April 23, 2021, 07:20:35 PM
Dunkley clearly the number 1 forward.
Who are the top 5?

Dunks, Dusty, Butters...maybe Ziebell and Marshall?

Dunkley
Dusty
Ziebell
Zorko
Sidebottom
Impey

This is what I'm aiming for.

Too early to tell

Heeney was very good in every game before being injured

Marshall barely played

Sidebottom done nothing

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 23, 2021, 08:33:21 PM
Too early to tell

Heeney was very good in every game before being injured

Marshall barely played

Sidebottom done nothing

I reckon Sidey will come good, I'd say with some confidence he'll be 95+.

Well Dunkley has popped his shoulder twice in the matter of minutes

Quote from: Mat0369 on April 23, 2021, 10:31:18 PM
Well Dunkley has popped his shoulder twice in the matter of minutes

And his final score is ...

Serious, I did not watch the game, is he injured??

Yup. Popped it 5 minutes into the last, went into the rooms, got it popped back in. Came back onto the ground, tried to punch the ball to clear it from a stoppage and it popped out again. He was teary after the game. Having popped it twice it is likely he has to go for surgery since it is unstable and may not heal on it's own. Likely to miss a bit of time now. At least he has made a ton of cash.

Quote from: Mat0369 on April 23, 2021, 11:01:51 PM
Yup. Popped it 5 minutes into the last, went into the rooms, got it popped back in. Came back onto the ground, tried to punch the ball to clear it from a stoppage and it popped out again. He was teary after the game. Having popped it twice it is likely he has to go for surgery since it is unstable and may not heal on it's own. Likely to miss a bit of time now. At least he has made a ton of cash.

Thanks
That now means i probably need to trade this week cause may have more problems next week
or do I
Protocol .. do not action anything Friday night after the game!  ;D ;D

Quote from: Bully on April 23, 2021, 07:23:48 PM

Quote from: oh_lol on April 23, 2021, 07:20:35 PM
Dunkley clearly the number 1 forward.
Who are the top 5?

Dunks, Dusty, Butters...maybe Ziebell and Marshall?

Dunkley
Dusty
Ziebell
Zorko
Sidebottom
Impey

This is what I'm aiming for.

Short life span for forecasts this year.     Before Dunks got injured your six is what I was probably considering until Danger/Marshall are ready.      Now,  bringing in Zorko and Sidebottom over next couple of weeks.   Neither are super urgent as have Daniher generating cash and points,  Dusty to bring in before byes, Marshall when he bottom's out.      Backups would be Heeney post byes.     I am also considering B Brown as a trade down option from Daniher for cash gen depending on how Melbourne look when he comes in.   

Quote from: crowls on April 29, 2021, 09:42:48 AM

Quote from: Bully on April 23, 2021, 07:23:48 PM

Quote from: oh_lol on April 23, 2021, 07:20:35 PM
Dunkley clearly the number 1 forward.
Who are the top 5?

Dunks, Dusty, Butters...maybe Ziebell and Marshall?

Dunkley
Dusty
Ziebell
Zorko
Sidebottom
Impey

This is what I'm aiming for.

Short life span for forecasts this year.     Before Dunks got injured your six is what I was probably considering until Danger/Marshall are ready.      Now,  bringing in Zorko and Sidebottom over next couple of weeks.   Neither are super urgent as have Daniher generating cash and points,  Dusty to bring in before byes, Marshall when he bottom's out.      Backups would be Heeney post byes.     I am also considering B Brown as a trade down option from Daniher for cash gen depending on how Melbourne look when he comes in.

Marshall now becomes a must have, might even grab him next week if he performs adequately. Probably use Flynn & Warner to make it happen.

Quote from: Bully on April 29, 2021, 10:00:34 AM

Quote from: crowls on April 29, 2021, 09:42:48 AM

Quote from: Bully on April 23, 2021, 07:23:48 PM

Quote from: oh_lol on April 23, 2021, 07:20:35 PM
Dunkley clearly the number 1 forward.
Who are the top 5?

Dunks, Dusty, Butters...maybe Ziebell and Marshall?

Dunkley
Dusty
Ziebell
Zorko
Sidebottom
Impey

This is what I'm aiming for.

Short life span for forecasts this year.     Before Dunks got injured your six is what I was probably considering until Danger/Marshall are ready.      Now,  bringing in Zorko and Sidebottom over next couple of weeks.   Neither are super urgent as have Daniher generating cash and points,  Dusty to bring in before byes, Marshall when he bottom's out.      Backups would be Heeney post byes.     I am also considering B Brown as a trade down option from Daniher for cash gen depending on how Melbourne look when he comes in.

Marshall now becomes a must have, might even grab him next week if he performs adequately. Probably use Flynn & Warner to make it happen.

Heeney will be cheap over the next couple of weeks....

Heeney one to consider sub 400k, might be an option if Marshall spends all his time up forward.

I currently have JZ, Tex, Impey, Heeney, Warner, Rookie

I'll be turning Flynn and Warner into Marshall as early as next week, maybe the week after

The last spot, well that will probably go to Dusty at this stage I guess as it's really becoming a matter of last man standing in the fwd line

Bailey Dale.

Discuss.

Quote from: Ingram on May 01, 2021, 03:53:45 AM
Bailey Dale.

Discuss.

He's on my radar. He had a couple of lower scores but has been surprisingly good in the other games. He has been their designated kick out guy which has seen his scores spike. Assuming that I'm going to keep Ziebell and Impey he is competing for that last forward spot with Sidebottom, Zorko, Marshall, Dusty, Danger, Hawkins, Heeney, Greene, Butters and Tex.

Shai Bolton is the other. He had that abysmal 29 but all the other scores have been good to amazing.

I'm totally lost on F6 now that Marshall & Bolton have injury concerns. Very tempted to roll with Heeney when he dips below 300k & then grab a big gun like Danger after the byes.

Marshall sounds done and dusted. I'm thinking something along this for my 6 forwards

Ziebell, Impey, Bolton, Dusty, Zorko and then one of Dale/Danger/Sidebottom/Hawkins/Greene.

I currently only have three of those guys in my side with Ziebell/Impey/Bolton. There is talk Bolton could even return next week but how does it hurt his scoring?

Heeney looks a steal, would be great bench material & could be a straight swap for Bergman or Jones.

As a bench option, sure. But I'm not worrying about bench options right now

With the byes in mind & the need for depth I'll probably grab him in a fortnight, this week Steele is my target but will look at a Jones/Bergman straight swap the week after.

Rolled the dice on Marshall early and have now paid the price.
Looking at Heeney and Dusty this week for Marshall and Scott.
Forward set up will be: Ziebell, Dusty, Impey, Heeney, Daniher,  Poulter (Waterman, Treacy)

Forced to trade out Nik Cox this week, seeing he was subbed in.
Cox to Mills
Warner to Heeney

Who do people think the top 6 forwards will be only including players available before Round 14?

I’m thinking
Ziebell
Zorko
Dusty
Impey
Hall
Sidebottom?

Quote from: MontyJnr on May 17, 2021, 11:39:48 PM
Who do people think the top 6 forwards will be only including players available before Round 14?

I’m thinking
Ziebell
Zorko
Dusty
Impey
Hall
Sidebottom?

Talk about last man standing - incredible how many forwards are dropping like flies

Outside of those 6, Heeney, Tmac, Dale and Hind are probably the only other guys in the mix, but I can't imagine many people grabbing the latter 3 of that list, especially at their current prices - much safer to grab one of the 6 you mentioned or the cheaper Heeney

I've only got JZ and Impey at the moment, but there's a chance I bring in Dusty and Heeney this week - just too many injury trades burnt this year so I need to go for the value in those two, even though I'd rather grab a more expensive, better option I think I might just need to grab those 2

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 18, 2021, 12:15:09 AM

Quote from: MontyJnr on May 17, 2021, 11:39:48 PM
Who do people think the top 6 forwards will be only including players available before Round 14?

I’m thinking
Ziebell
Zorko
Dusty
Impey
Hall
Sidebottom?

Talk about last man standing - incredible how many forwards are dropping like flies

Outside of those 6, Heeney, Tmac, Dale and Hind are probably the only other guys in the mix, but I can't imagine many people grabbing the latter 3 of that list, especially at their current prices - much safer to grab one of the 6 you mentioned or the cheaper Heeney

I've only got JZ and Impey at the moment, but there's a chance I bring in Dusty and Heeney this week - just too many injury trades burnt this year so I need to go for the value in those two, even though I'd rather grab a more expensive, better option I think I might just need to grab those 2

Yep agree with you there. I'm looking to get Heeney next week to hold down F6 until Danger returns, which will then push Heeney to F7. I already own Ziebell, Zorko, Dusty & Impey.

I'm really struggling with Hall v Sidebottom right now though. Who would you choose?

Sidebottom has better scoring history and has been getting higher CBA numbers in recent weeks, but it hasn't really translated to big scores.

Hall has a new extremely fantasy friendly role on half back taking kick outs which probably gives him the higher ceiling, but there is risk he may not remain in this role for the entire season.

Quote from: MontyJnr on May 18, 2021, 10:00:22 AM
Hall has a new extremely fantasy friendly role on half back taking kick outs which probably gives him the higher ceiling, but there is risk he may not remain in this role for the entire season.

And there's always the injury risk with him too

If you're going to grab Heeney next week, that gives you 5 keepers so I'd be inclined to loop two fwd rookies at F6 for a while and focus on getting prems into other lines, which also gives you a bit more time to see how the fwd keeper landscape plays out

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 18, 2021, 10:52:48 AM

Quote from: MontyJnr on May 18, 2021, 10:00:22 AM
Hall has a new extremely fantasy friendly role on half back taking kick outs which probably gives him the higher ceiling, but there is risk he may not remain in this role for the entire season.

And there's always the injury risk with him too

If you're going to grab Heeney next week, that gives you 5 keepers so I'd be inclined to loop two fwd rookies at F6 for a while and focus on getting prems into other lines, which also gives you a bit more time to see how the fwd keeper landscape plays out

Looping the way to go for F6 although I hear Waterman doing ok in the VFL as a midfielder & may make a return.

How far off is Danger? Might be worth grabbing Heeney for now & then switching when there's rough parity.

Marshall out for a month but still relevant for season 2021. I'm grabbing Treacy just in case.

Thoughts on Hawkins?

Sitting equal 7th in total points (and should jump Toby Greene this weekend). 4th for a three game average at 101.7 ppg (excluding the injured Dunkley, Butters, Bolton and Reid) and 6th over 5. He has a low BE of 49 and plays GC (in Geelong) and Collingwood in his two games leading up to the bye. He also has a pretty handy bye week being first up where teams are probably only missing a handful of players. His ceiling is huge and he seems to be performing better with Cameron in the team.

Hawkins not a bad pick but not the same bang for buck as Heeney. Would rather use 140k elsewhere.

I also see Hawkins outscoring Heeney on the run home. With the forward line looking like a crapshoot the cash saved could be beneficial to other upgrades but with the Flynn dollars still in hand and some viable options in Kosi, Jordon, Daniher etc. still in a lot of teams it's probably not back breaking. He is still under 500k priced at 484k

I actually see Heeney as the best way to get Danger, that's if he underperforms which would also be bucking a long term trend.

Of all the gambits in the forward line this one is a decent shot, can't see him going under 90 and think his real value is 450k. Can't see too many downgrade options either.

Quote from: Bully on May 21, 2021, 01:45:59 AM
I actually see Heeney as the best way to get Danger, that's if he underperforms which would also be bucking a long term trend.

Of all the gambits in the forward line this one is a decent shot, can't see him going under 90 and think his real value is 450k. Can't see too many downgrade options either.

Dangerfield is listed as 2-4 weeks away, so could return anywhere between Round 12 & Round 14.

Over that period, Heeney plays Carlton, St Kilda & Hawthorn before his Round 14 bye. If he averages 100 over that 3 game run, he will only make 88K to reach a price of 435K - is this enough to justify the trade before moving him to Dangerfield?

Heeney's run gets considerably harder following the bye with Port away, Eagles & Dogs away, so there is every possibility his price growth is stunted in that 3 game stretch and he may be difficult to rely on as an on-field option. The temptation to bring in Danger could be strong - but I'm wondering if it makes more sense to just use Weightman instead of Heeney to reach Danger?

Heeney to Danger in round 14 looks like a power move to me. At worst he becomes a great F7, perfect for a player who tends to ton up every second match.

Heeney to Danger sounds good in theory, but nearly everyone is going to struggle to complete a side with so many injuries etc this year, so I just can't consider something like that

If I was to get Heeney, it would be for him to be a keeper in my side, not a stepping stone

I'll look at him after his bye possibly, but for now I don't think he's a must at all. Good value for sure, but I've got bigger fish to fry

EDIT: And his bye is just a massive no for me, already have too many R14 guys

Weightman is a high price rookie so I'm more inclined to pay the extra for scoring stability. They will probably earn the same amount over the next month.

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 24, 2021, 12:40:14 PM
Heeney to Danger sounds good in theory, but nearly everyone is going to struggle to complete a side with so many injuries etc this year, so I just can't consider something like that

If I was to get Heeney, it would be for him to be a keeper in my side, not a stepping stone

I'll look at him after his bye possibly, but for now I don't think he's a must at all. Good value for sure, but I've got bigger fish to fry

EDIT: And his bye is just a massive no for me, already have too many R14 guys

Heeney becomes Danger so that shouldn't be a deal breaker.

The cost of additional trades is the turn off

I'd rather turn Flynn + Warner for example into Danger

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 24, 2021, 12:40:14 PM
Heeney to Danger sounds good in theory, but nearly everyone is going to struggle to complete a side with so many injuries etc this year, so I just can't consider something like that

If I was to get Heeney, it would be for him to be a keeper in my side, not a stepping stone

I'll look at him after his bye possibly, but for now I don't think he's a must at all. Good value for sure, but I've got bigger fish to fry

EDIT: And his bye is just a massive no for me, already have too many R14 guys

Who will be sitting on your bench in Round 14? The only premium forwards that have the bye that week are Heeney, Sidebottom and Tom McDonald maybe?

I'd almost be going out of my way for a Round 14 bye forward right now!

Also the fact that we've been gifted with Ziebell & Impey turning into keepers means most shouldn't have too much trouble completing their side I would've thought..

Having GG automatically puts me down to 20 max players (Highly doubt I would still have Flynn by then, and he's no guarantee to play that round anyway)

With so many other R14 players, getting to 18 is already going to be quite a stretch, so adding Heeney just makes it near impossible

As for JZ and Impey, they certainly help, but there's been a hell of a lot of injuries this year which have chewed into trades

If Heeney goes 100+ 3 weeks in a row from here, so be it

If he goes sub 100, and even 1-2 sub 90's (which I'd think is more likely) then there's no harm waiting to get him after his bye

And for those looking to get Heeney now and upgrade him to Danger

If he does in fact make 100k from here then he's scoring very well - are you really going to upgrade him then? I doubt it very much

And if he doesn't make 100k, then he's been scoring meh and is a bust pick? Just turn Flynn and Warner into Danger before Syd bye

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 24, 2021, 06:03:23 PM
Having GG automatically puts me down to 20 max players (Highly doubt I would still have Flynn by then, and he's no guarantee to play that round anyway)

With so many other R14 players, getting to 18 is already going to be quite a stretch, so adding Heeney just makes it near impossible

As for JZ and Impey, they certainly help, but there's been a hell of a lot of injuries this year which have chewed into trades

If Heeney goes 100+ 3 weeks in a row from here, so be it

If he goes sub 100, and even 1-2 sub 90's (which I'd think is more likely) then there's no harm waiting to get him after his bye

Ned Reeves will be on the bubble after his bye if he keeps his spot, so that potentially saves 1 ruck donut in R14.

R13 is actually looking worse for me right now.

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 24, 2021, 06:06:51 PM
And for those looking to get Heeney now and upgrade him to Danger

If he does in fact make 100k from here then he's scoring very well - are you really going to upgrade him then? I doubt it very much

And if he doesn't make 100k, then he's been scoring meh and is a bust pick? Just turn Flynn and Warner into Danger before Syd bye

Yeah I have come to the conclusion that Heeney is not a viable stepping stone to Danger.

You are getting him with the intention of him holding down F6 and if you're lucky, you may be able to push him or Impey to F7 later in the season.

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 24, 2021, 06:06:51 PM
And for those looking to get Heeney now and upgrade him to Danger

If he does in fact make 100k from here then he's scoring very well - are you really going to upgrade him then? I doubt it very much

And if he doesn't make 100k, then he's been scoring meh and is a bust pick? Just turn Flynn and Warner into Danger before Syd bye

Warner is OK for F6 but I reckon most people would be plugging that hole well before the bye.

Heeney is a proven 90+ player &  that is fine for F6 in the current climate. Danger may also take sometime to settle in, you can't play Warner there forever.

Quote from: Bully on May 24, 2021, 09:45:02 PM

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 24, 2021, 06:06:51 PM
And for those looking to get Heeney now and upgrade him to Danger

If he does in fact make 100k from here then he's scoring very well - are you really going to upgrade him then? I doubt it very much

And if he doesn't make 100k, then he's been scoring meh and is a bust pick? Just turn Flynn and Warner into Danger before Syd bye

Warner is OK for F6 but I reckon most people would be plugging that hole well before the bye.

Heeney is a proven 90+ player &  that is fine for F6 in the current climate. Danger may also take sometime to settle in, you can't play Warner there forever.

You've changed your tune

Grabbing Heeney now with the expectation of him being your F6, possibly even F7/M9 cover is fine

It was the Heeney to Danger in a few weeks that I didn't agree with

Heeney to Danger still might make sense if it means an extra premo score on the field in round 14. Depends on the form line of both players.

Quote from: Bully on May 24, 2021, 10:20:03 PM
Heeney to Danger still might make sense if it means an extra premo score on the field in round 14. Depends on the form line of both players.

It depends how many trades you have.

I value each trade at 150K profit which Heeney cannot make before his Round 14 bye unless he scores 150 each week (in which case you probably won’t want to trade him).

If you have managed to avoid most of the carnage so far and have saved plenty of trades though, then you may be able to use a luxury trade on this move and settle for less profit - I’m personally not in this situation though.

It also becomes viable if Heeney fails as a pick and you need to move him on, but this isn’t a situation we should be planning for.

People need to prepare to burn a trade, whether that is Heeney or any underperforming mid/forward. Danger likely to be a must-have, a 90 average might be the bare minimum or it might require an upgrade to 110 (assuming Danger reverts to his career numbers).

There also needs to be some consideration for the points gained by fielding a premo in round 14.

Just as an example, if you are struggling for 18 starters & Heeney to Danger nets 110 points then this needs to be factored into overall averages.
Spread over the remaining 9 rounds this is an additional 12 points on average. Same goes with other players who have a round 14 bye.

Trading Heeney is the perfect get out of jail clause if he fails & that's in effect what makes this trade such a safe pick IMO.