Something ive been thinking about over the last few days is the need to pick the highly selected players in your side. should you follow the pack or go against the grain and risk it.
IMO the key criteria will be what is the risk vs reward for each options.
Someone like Cripps is in 51.5% of sides, but there isn't a huge difference between him and say Dunkley who is in only 15.6% of sides. So I don't see much risk in not selecting.
Slightly different scenario with Devon Smith who is currently in 48.7% of sides. If he performs as per the hype and averages 90-95 there is a much higher risk of falling away from the pack. The offset is you get a rookie that can make the same amount of $ and potentially cover the points with taking a stronger premium. But you need both to fall right.
If he fails to live up to the hype though, you are a long way in front.
While the risk is high, I can see the reward being higher.
This is why we have correction trades
If you start one over the other and it looks like being a mistake, make the correction and fix things
High % players are high for a reason - they're proven, so in most cases it should work
As for the Cripps vs Dunks scenarios etc, well that's just personal choice - you expect both will be right up there either way - unless 1 of them get injured you're not going to get burnt
The key to running deep in SC and finishing with a high overall finish is mostly down to how you trade during the season (and luck!) - most of us here who take this seriously should be starting with similar'ish type sides, but it's the luck and trading that separates the high finishes from the low
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 19, 2020, 02:32:25 PM
This is why we have correction trades
If you start one over the other and it looks like being a mistake, make the correction and fix things
High % players are high for a reason - they're proven, so in most cases it should work
As for the Cripps vs Dunks scenarios etc, well that's just personal choice - you expect both will be right up there either way - unless 1 of them get injured you're not going to get burnt
The key to running deep in SC and finishing with a high overall finish is mostly down to how you trade during the season (and luck!) - most of us here who take this seriously should be starting with similar'ish type sides, but it's the luck and trading that separates the high finishes from the low
I agree on the trading & luck being the separating factors and from most teams I have seen there is a very clear cut standard, with only a handful really swaying from it. Eg Weaker Fwd vs Weaker Def. GG vs Non GG.
I just don't see why Cripps as an example should be in over 50% of sides when there is so many other options that are as safe as a starting pick.
Yes he is in mine too as I see him as a good pick at this point, but Im thinking it might be better to switch away from him. Only way you lose out is if he averages 130 straight off the bat or comes out with 150+ scores.
Cripps 51% - 2 years in a row over 110 & 1 over 115
Dangerfield 27% - 5 years in a row over 115
Any way we can see the 2019 winners starting side?
Quote from: LordSneeze on February 19, 2020, 03:01:45 PM
I agree on the trading & luck being the separating factors and from most teams I have seen there is a very clear cut standard, with only a handful really swaying from it. Eg Weaker Fwd vs Weaker Def. GG vs Non GG.
I just don't see why Cripps as an example should be in over 50% of sides when there is so many other options that are as safe as a starting pick.
Yes he is in mine too as I see him as a good pick at this point, but Im thinking it might be better to switch away from him. Only way you lose out is if he averages 130 straight off the bat or comes out with 150+ scores.
Cripps 51% - 2 years in a row over 110 & 1 over 115
Dangerfield 27% - 5 years in a row over 115
Cripps is so popular because he is one of only a small handful that has shown he can go 115+ and sustain it - that's why he's a popular pick. He could definitely come out of the gate with a few 130+ scores too
Dunkley doesn't have that history yet, which is why he isn't as popular
Macrae, Neale, Fyfe, Kelly, Titch, Danger and Cripps
They are the only proven 115+ guys, so of course they're going to be very popular. The only reason Kelly and Titch aren't popular is because of their recent injury concerns, but I suspect both of their ownership % are going to soar after Marsh
Quote from: jvalles69 on February 19, 2020, 03:28:37 PM
Any way we can see the 2019 winners starting side?
There's an article on the HS site behind a paywall that might have it, will have a look when I get home (Got a dodgy Chrome extension that gets around it haha)
Quote from: Gigantor on February 19, 2020, 05:03:16 PM
Quote from: jvalles69 on February 19, 2020, 03:28:37 PM
Any way we can see the 2019 winners starting side?
There's an article on the HS site behind a paywall that might have it, will have a look when I get home (Got a dodgy Chrome extension that gets around it haha)
Nice!
Quote from: jvalles69 on February 19, 2020, 05:24:24 PM
Quote from: Gigantor on February 19, 2020, 05:03:16 PM
Quote from: jvalles69 on February 19, 2020, 03:28:37 PM
Any way we can see the 2019 winners starting side?
There's an article on the HS site behind a paywall that might have it, will have a look when I get home (Got a dodgy Chrome extension that gets around it haha)
Nice!
Yeah absolutely nothing in it ::)
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 19, 2020, 02:32:25 PM
This is why we have correction trades
If you start one over the other and it looks like being a mistake, make the correction and fix things
High % players are high for a reason - they're proven, so in most cases it should work
As for the Cripps vs Dunks scenarios etc, well that's just personal choice - you expect both will be right up there either way - unless 1 of them get injured you're not going to get burnt
The key to running deep in SC and finishing with a high overall finish is mostly down to how you trade during the season (and luck!) - most of us here who take this seriously should be starting with similar'ish type sides, but it's the luck and trading that separates the high finishes from the low
I think we have to be conservative in our approach to correction trades this season. It goes without saying that in-season trading is important... and correction trades are part of that.
But I don't believe we'll have the same luxury for correction trades this season as we have in the past.
Typically, I try to start with 13-14 keepers, normally requiring in the region of 19-21 trades to complete my team. That leaves 9-11 trades for injuries and correction trades. This is more than enough! Assuming 6-8 trades for injuries, you can reasonably expect to have 2-4 trades up your sleeve for corrections.
This season, however, teams are starting with fewer keepers. I'm currently starting with 12; which means I'm going to need 23 trades to complete my team (I'm seeing a lot of teams out there in a similar boat). Assuming 6-8 trades for injuries... well, you do the maths.
That's why I think this season we need to play it with a straight bat - take as few risks as possible in how you set up - because we're not going to have the luxury of 2-4 correction trades like we normally do.
A correction trade for a Rookies we missed... absolutely, I can justify that.
But a correction trade for Bontempelli to Dunkley or vice versa, no way... not this season. Of course, you can do it... but you're not going to complete your team optimally in the back-end of the season.
This season we need to remove correction trades from our strategy. Choose your premiums knowing you're going to live and die by them. That's my reading, anyway.
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 19, 2020, 11:28:31 PM
A correction trade for a Rookies we missed... absolutely, I can justify that.
But a correction trade for Bontempelli to Dunkley or vice versa, no way... not this season. Of course, you can do it... but you're not going to complete your team optimally in the back-end of the season.
This season we need to remove correction trades from our strategy. Choose your premiums knowing you're going to live and die by them. That's my reading, anyway.
When I referenced correction trades, I was more so referring to the mid price guys like Dev, Steven etc
You don't trade out your proven super prems off a couple of bad games - nobody is doing Bont to Dunks, Cripps to Titch etc
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 20, 2020, 12:05:07 AM
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 19, 2020, 11:28:31 PM
A correction trade for a Rookies we missed... absolutely, I can justify that.
But a correction trade for Bontempelli to Dunkley or vice versa, no way... not this season. Of course, you can do it... but you're not going to complete your team optimally in the back-end of the season.
This season we need to remove correction trades from our strategy. Choose your premiums knowing you're going to live and die by them. That's my reading, anyway.
When I referenced correction trades, I was more so referring to the mid price guys like Dev, Steven etc
You don't trade out your proven super prems off a couple of bad games - nobody is doing Bont to Dunks, Cripps to Titch etc
Fair enough... we're on the same page there. Bont - Dunk is a bad example (I only said Bont - Dunk because the comments ahead were referencing Cripps - Dunk).
My point though... if you select Dev Smith or J. Steven... this season, more than any other, you CANNOT correct trade them (for the reasons I outlined above).
This is why I
don't currently have Dev Smith or J. Steven in my team. If I pick them they must be as keepers, and not as speculative keepers.
I'm curious... if you have Dev Smith... how many keepers do you have in your team (
excluding him)?... and how many trades to complete your team (
including him)?
Funnily enough I just made a team with no Steven or Dev in it to see what options I had to swing ond to a rookie and the other to Walters.
I didn't have Roberton or Doedee in my side either and orginally had Nic Nat as a stepping stone and for this exercise also turned Nic Nay into Sauce to free up cash. It left me with this team in terms of keepers.
Lloyd, Laird, Doc
Macrae, Neale/Kelly, Cripps, Mitchell, Danger
Grundy
Whitfield, Martin, Walters
So that's 12 keepers and Sauce. I compare that to my current team and that gives me the following
Lloyd/Laird, Doc, Howe
Macrae, Neale/Oliver, Kelly, Cripps, Mitchell
Grundy
Whitfield, Martin, Steven, Dev
13 keepers and Nic Nat as the stepping stone to Gawn over Sauce.
Something I haven't considered until now is starting Ceglar in the ruck instead of Nic Nat. It would potentially pocket me another keeper bringing the total to 14
Cripps is so popular because he is one of only a small handful that has shown he can go 115+ and sustain it - that's why he's a popular pick. He could definitely come out of the gate with a few 130+ scores too
Dunkley doesn't have that history yet, which is why he isn't as popular
Macrae, Neale, Fyfe, Kelly, Titch, Danger and Cripps
They are the only proven 115+ guys, so of course they're going to be very popular. The only reason Kelly and Titch aren't popular is because of their recent injury concerns, but I suspect both of their ownership % are going to soar after Marsh
[/quote]
This is the exact reason I’ve dropped Dunkley for now. Although I believe he has a higher ceiling and could come out of the blocks firing he just hasn’t proven that he is a consistent 110+ scorer across a season like the above mentioned guys have.
I disagree slightly with Colleys analysis of trades. Usually when bringing in a prem a trade is usually 1 up and 1 down so assume you start with 12 that means 20 trades and say an extra 2 to get cash if not having sufficient cash for the one up one down leaving 8 trades to use. I usually work on this base to try and have a couple of trades left for finals.
I currently have Roberton and Smith in my team and if they are not scoring well enough to retain as D6/F6 they will be the last traded hopefully with one trade. Thats the plan but as we know luck is required to keep to plans.
Quote from: Ringo on February 20, 2020, 10:37:02 AM
I disagree slightly with Colleys analysis of trades. Usually when bringing in a prem a trade is usually 1 up and 1 down so assume you start with 12 that means 20 trades and say an extra 2 to get cash if not having sufficient cash for the one up one down leaving 8 trades to use. I usually work on this base to try and have a couple of trades left for finals.
I currently have Roberton and Smith in my team and if they are not scoring well enough to retain as D6/F6 they will be the last traded hopefully with one trade. Thats the plan but as we know luck is required to keep to plans.
Good luck doing 1 up 1 down when turning a mid rookie into a 550k+ prem
I think it's legit concern this year - deciding on how many top end players to start, and thinking about whether or not we should maybe start a few keepers who are a little cheaper
If we start with 12-13 keepers, then it's going to be pushing it to get a complete side with 22 prems, whilst factoring in injuries and correction trades
Most of us want to start 4 600k+ mids, but maybe we need to look at starting 2-3 and starting 1-2 guys in the 500-600k range
Same down back, maybe look at starting 1 500k+, 1 450k+ guy and Docherty?
I think it's a real thing to consider - because if we can start with 14 keepers somehow, that will certainly make getting a full side of 22 keepers more achievable
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 20, 2020, 12:00:57 PM
Quote from: Ringo on February 20, 2020, 10:37:02 AM
I disagree slightly with Colleys analysis of trades. Usually when bringing in a prem a trade is usually 1 up and 1 down so assume you start with 12 that means 20 trades and say an extra 2 to get cash if not having sufficient cash for the one up one down leaving 8 trades to use. I usually work on this base to try and have a couple of trades left for finals.
I currently have Roberton and Smith in my team and if they are not scoring well enough to retain as D6/F6 they will be the last traded hopefully with one trade. Thats the plan but as we know luck is required to keep to plans.
Good luck doing 1 up 1 down when turning a mid rookie into a 550k+ prem
My calculation is 2 trades for Defenders and Forwards, and 3 trades for Midfielders (2 down / 1 up).
I currently have 12 Keepers & require 23 trades to complete my team.
(I don't have Dev Smith or J. Steven / I do have Roberton, but don't count him as a keeper - though I may upgrade him last, and treat it as a luxury trade).
Obviously, nothing ever goes to plan... but I like to have a picture of how I could optimally complete my team, and then make adjustments before the season starts.
I'm seriously considering getting in Dev. Smith as a Keeper (even though I don't believe in the pick), simply to have 13 Keepers, thereby getting the trades I need to complete my team down to 21.
This is the point I was making earlier: if I get Dev. Smith, it's as a keeper. This season we're not going to have the 2-4 trades we usually have for corrections.
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 20, 2020, 12:10:27 PM
I think it's legit concern this year - deciding on how many top end players to start, and thinking about whether or not we should maybe start a few keepers who are a little cheaper
If we start with 12-13 keepers, then it's going to be pushing it to get a complete side with 22 prems, whilst factoring in injuries and correction trades
Most of us want to start 4 600k+ mids, but maybe we need to look at starting 2-3 and starting 1-2 guys in the 500-600k range
Same down back, maybe look at starting 1 500k+, 1 450k+ guy and Docherty?
I think it's a real thing to consider - because if we can start with 14 keepers somehow, that will certainly make getting a full side of 22 keepers less achievable
Spot on RD.
I've been banging my head... trying to figure out where to get the cash from: M5; R2; F3.
Maybe the best solution is to get the cash by having a couple of premium mids (Kelly; Conigs etc.) rather than 4 or 5 ultra-premium 600K+ mids.
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 20, 2020, 12:17:23 PM
Spot on RD.
I've been banging my head... trying to figure out where to get the cash from: M5; R2; F3.
Maybe the best solution is to get the cash by having a couple of premium mids (Kelly; Conigs etc.) rather than 4 or 5 ultra-premium 600K+ mids.
Yeah I think this might be the way to go
We'd likely start the season off a little slower compared to those teams that have the higher priced guns, but we would also likely make up that ground at the business end, and probably be in a better position to not run out of trades
Certainly something I am going to toy around with now
I have 13 keepers including Smith and 14 if I include Jack Steven. Am thinking of turning him into Tommy Lynch but that doesn’t change the overall amount of keepers.
That’s also including the fact I haven’t stooged on premo guys apart from the forward line in terms of spending.
12 but with neither Smith or Steven in the team.
My Backup option would have 14
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 20, 2020, 12:00:57 PM
Quote from: Ringo on February 20, 2020, 10:37:02 AM
I disagree slightly with Colleys analysis of trades. Usually when bringing in a prem a trade is usually 1 up and 1 down so assume you start with 12 that means 20 trades and say an extra 2 to get cash if not having sufficient cash for the one up one down leaving 8 trades to use. I usually work on this base to try and have a couple of trades left for finals.
I currently have Roberton and Smith in my team and if they are not scoring well enough to retain as D6/F6 they will be the last traded hopefully with one trade. Thats the plan but as we know luck is required to keep to plans.
Good luck doing 1 up 1 down when turning a mid rookie into a 550k+ prem
Fair comment but that was the purpsoe of the additional 2 trades. I am expecting Rowell to be able to be part of one up one down and maybe Pickett as well. But agree with the comments trades will have to be spot on this year as we will not have the spares this year.
So it seems the norm is 12 true keepers, plus the likes of Dev, Steven, Robbo etc
I've had a play, and put together a team with 14 Keepers / 19 trades to complete.
So that's better.
But only 10 keepers can be considered ultra-premium or safe premium picks. 4 of the keepers are quite speculative.
The 14 keepers include Dev Smith / I have Roberton, but haven't counted him as a keeper.
From the get-go, this team will score pretty much the same as my '12 keeper / 23 trades to complete' team; possibly even 10-20 points better.
Pros:
4 more trades
Cons
Going to be stuck with the 4 speculative picks, like Dev Smith, regardless of how they score.
But I'm starting to think a flatter premium line gives higher expected value across the season (as it allows for better play action during the trading cycle).
*Team posted in Supercoach Team Advice*
Quote from: LordSneeze on February 20, 2020, 03:00:06 PM
12 but with neither Smith or Steven in the team.
My Backup option would have 14
^ same, just 12
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 20, 2020, 12:10:27 PM
I think it's legit concern this year - deciding on how many top end players to start, and thinking about whether or not we should maybe start a few keepers who are a little cheaper
If we start with 12-13 keepers, then it's going to be pushing it to get a complete side with 22 prems, whilst factoring in injuries and correction trades
Most of us want to start 4 600k+ mids, but maybe we need to look at starting 2-3 and starting 1-2 guys in the 500-600k range
Same down back, maybe look at starting 1 500k+, 1 450k+ guy and Docherty?
I think it's a real thing to consider - because if we can start with 14 keepers somehow, that will certainly make getting a full side of 22 keepers more achievable
Selecting premium mids in the 500-600k range is a recipe for disaster IMO
Unless it's an underpriced superstar returning from injury, players in the 500-600k range tend to drive you insane averaging 95-100 whilst anchoring down your M8 position all season eg. Matt Crouch or Dusty in 2019.
There is the occasional diamond (ie. Bont 2019), but it's a massive gamble attempting to successfully nail the right guy.
Personally, I wouldn't be going any cheaper than Oliver at 593k.
Quote from: MontyJnr on February 28, 2020, 03:50:38 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 20, 2020, 12:10:27 PM
I think it's legit concern this year - deciding on how many top end players to start, and thinking about whether or not we should maybe start a few keepers who are a little cheaper
If we start with 12-13 keepers, then it's going to be pushing it to get a complete side with 22 prems, whilst factoring in injuries and correction trades
Most of us want to start 4 600k+ mids, but maybe we need to look at starting 2-3 and starting 1-2 guys in the 500-600k range
Same down back, maybe look at starting 1 500k+, 1 450k+ guy and Docherty?
I think it's a real thing to consider - because if we can start with 14 keepers somehow, that will certainly make getting a full side of 22 keepers more achievable
Selecting premium mids in the 500-600k range is a recipe for disaster IMO
Unless it's an underpriced superstar returning from injury, players in the 500-600k range tend to drive you insane averaging 95-100 whilst anchoring down your M8 position all season eg. Matt Crouch or Dusty in 2019.
There is the occasional diamond (ie. Bont 2019), but it's a massive gamble attempting to successfully nail the right guy.
Personally, I wouldn't be going any cheaper than Oliver at 593k.
Yeah, if I was to go cheaper it would be in def or fwd - since posting that I just cannot see a single mid under Oliver that interests me
[/quote]
Yeah, if I was to go cheaper it would be in def or fwd - since posting that I just cannot see a single mid under Oliver that interests me
[/quote]
Thank goodness there's eleven above him. :D
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 28, 2020, 04:15:31 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on February 28, 2020, 03:50:38 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 20, 2020, 12:10:27 PM
I think it's legit concern this year - deciding on how many top end players to start, and thinking about whether or not we should maybe start a few keepers who are a little cheaper
If we start with 12-13 keepers, then it's going to be pushing it to get a complete side with 22 prems, whilst factoring in injuries and correction trades
Most of us want to start 4 600k+ mids, but maybe we need to look at starting 2-3 and starting 1-2 guys in the 500-600k range
Same down back, maybe look at starting 1 500k+, 1 450k+ guy and Docherty?
I think it's a real thing to consider - because if we can start with 14 keepers somehow, that will certainly make getting a full side of 22 keepers more achievable
Selecting premium mids in the 500-600k range is a recipe for disaster IMO
Unless it's an underpriced superstar returning from injury, players in the 500-600k range tend to drive you insane averaging 95-100 whilst anchoring down your M8 position all season eg. Matt Crouch or Dusty in 2019.
There is the occasional diamond (ie. Bont 2019), but it's a massive gamble attempting to successfully nail the right guy.
Personally, I wouldn't be going any cheaper than Oliver at 593k.
Yeah, if I was to go cheaper it would be in def or fwd - since posting that I just cannot see a single mid under Oliver that interests me
Tim Kelly
Yeo ^^^ if I was going 6 prems he’d be next in for sure.
Just can’t ditch any of the 5 guys I have in front of him.
Quote from: tigertops on March 13, 2020, 02:27:43 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 28, 2020, 04:15:31 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on February 28, 2020, 03:50:38 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 20, 2020, 12:10:27 PM
I think it's legit concern this year - deciding on how many top end players to start, and thinking about whether or not we should maybe start a few keepers who are a little cheaper
If we start with 12-13 keepers, then it's going to be pushing it to get a complete side with 22 prems, whilst factoring in injuries and correction trades
Most of us want to start 4 600k+ mids, but maybe we need to look at starting 2-3 and starting 1-2 guys in the 500-600k range
Same down back, maybe look at starting 1 500k+, 1 450k+ guy and Docherty?
I think it's a real thing to consider - because if we can start with 14 keepers somehow, that will certainly make getting a full side of 22 keepers more achievable
Selecting premium mids in the 500-600k range is a recipe for disaster IMO
Unless it's an underpriced superstar returning from injury, players in the 500-600k range tend to drive you insane averaging 95-100 whilst anchoring down your M8 position all season eg. Matt Crouch or Dusty in 2019.
There is the occasional diamond (ie. Bont 2019), but it's a massive gamble attempting to successfully nail the right guy.
Personally, I wouldn't be going any cheaper than Oliver at 593k.
Yeah, if I was to go cheaper it would be in def or fwd - since posting that I just cannot see a single mid under Oliver that interests me
Tim Kelly
With TK, Gaff and Yeo it seems pretty hard to determine which of them is going to be the best, hence I wouldn't start them - just wait and see and look to bring them in later if they warrant it
Think I'd rather roll the dice on Conigs at 549k if I am forced to start someone cheaper than Oliver
Same logic for Bulldogs? Or willing to gamble? Also byes is a consideration
Quote from: _wato on March 13, 2020, 03:01:52 PM
Yeo ^^^ if I was going 6 prems he’d be next in for sure.
Just can’t ditch any of the 5 guys I have in front of him.
I have Yeo at M6 hoping I'm not absolutely nuts.
Quote from: Peter on March 13, 2020, 09:45:26 PM
Same logic for Bulldogs? Or willing to gamble? Also byes is a consideration
Now Wallis is back in the team, does he get midfield minutes or stop dunks and bont playing forward