Perhaps, aside from the Defense conundrum, this will be the most intriguing selection decision for SC coaches in the 2015 pre-season.
In previous years, it has been a golden rule, start with Ablett. I personally have built my side around the midfield trio Ablett, Pendlebury and Selwood. However this year is he the "must have" of previous years? There are a couple of things to consider here.
First he is coming off an injury that kept him out for the last 7 weeks of the 2014 and is going to see him miss most of pre-season (a report I saw on the Gold Coast Big Footy Board suggested that he looks likely to miss the NAB Cup, but he is aiming to be right for round 1). As we saw last year with Swan even the best can be effected by an injury interrupted pre-season. Add to that, given he has missed so much football, does that put him at risk for soft tissue injuries when he does come back. He wouldn't be the first player to come back from an extended layoff only to have soft tissue injuries upon return.
The second thing to consider, he is about $30k more expensive than the next player (Rockliff), about $67k more expensive than Pendles and about $80-$120k more expensive than most of the Ultra-Premiums ($600k+ players) this year. Are his scores going be high enough to warrent the extra cash this year?Especially when you factor in trading him to someone my in the $80-$100k less bracket would allow you to turn a premium into another Ultra-Premium or a mid-pricer into a premium and giving you an additional keeper in your starting line up.
The third thing to consider, is if you don't take him would his price drop my enough to make him a realistic upgrade target during the season??
I thought I read that he has been training (just not doing ball work), but if you're right about him missing most of the preseason then that could be an issue. At this stage though, I'll be starting him. He is just too talented and I don't think a shoulder injury will stop him. Worst comes to worst and he does drop off slightly, he'll still keep his consistency and average atleast 125, which will still make him a great captaincy option.
He should be doing all the running possible, shoulders dont really impair that.
First picked every year until he gives me a reason not to, and I don't consider his shoulder a good enough reason
Quote from: Big Mac on December 28, 2014, 02:23:57 PM
I thought I read that he has been training (just not doing ball work), but if you're right about him missing most of the preseason then that could be an issue. At this stage though, I'll be starting him. He is just too talented and I don't think a shoulder injury will stop him. Worst comes to worst and he does drop off slightly, he'll still keep his consistency and average atleast 125, which will still make him a great captaincy option.
He's been doing all the ball work just no contact.
Combined with his bye, I'll likely leave him out. I expect him to start "slowly" (130ppg?) compared to other years, therefore he's slightly overpriced. Pendles represents better value so I'll start with him, Rockliff is clearly the best round 11 bye midfielder. I probably wont have the money to get Ablett too, so I might get a Barlow instead as that second round 12 bye mid.
Hard to pick IMO as he is priced so highly...
RD11 bye players Pendlebury, Fyfe, Kennedy, Barlow and Watson all 50-160k cheaper and i'd say should all average 115+.
Pick a few of those blokes, save 30-60k and upgrade an iffy high mid-priced player to a strong premo and you'll be 20-30pts better off each round.
Most of what i have read has been positive regarding his shoulder.
People doubt him every preseason, start him or you'll be behind. Gary is a lock every year if he lines up round 1..
Ablett pendles just auto move into my team than I start choosing the squad.
In my opinion it is a bigger risk to start without him then with him.
Quote from: Money Shot on December 28, 2014, 07:38:15 PM
In my opinion it is a bigger risk to start without him then with him.
My Gut is changing, lol.
I am going without him at this stage ...
He will come down in price and will get him
On the cheap ...
Quote from: eaglesman on December 28, 2014, 08:17:57 PM
I am going without him at this stage ...
He will come down in price and will get him
On the cheap ...
i had the same idea this year and ended up paying 750k for him lol
I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.
Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.
Quote from: ben_020285 on December 28, 2014, 08:38:00 PM
I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.
Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.
Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:42:34 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on December 28, 2014, 08:38:00 PM
I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.
Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.
Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)
So , no hesitation G?
Gaz's 3 round avg to teams before byes:
Mel 126.7
Stk 150.7
Gee 133
Gws 156.3
Bris 148
Adl 122.3
Wce 97.7
Pies 131.3
Hawks 148
Swans 139.7
Freo 147.7
Quote from: WizzFizz on December 28, 2014, 08:46:23 PM
Gaz's 3 round avg to teams before byes:
Mel 126.7
Stk 150.7
Gee 133
Gws 156.3
Bris 148
Adl 122.3
Wce 97.7
Pies 131.3
Hawks 148
Swans 139.7
Freo 147.7
Self explanatory ;)
Quote from: GM on December 28, 2014, 08:45:53 PM
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:42:34 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on December 28, 2014, 08:38:00 PM
I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.
Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.
Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)
So , no hesitation G?
Not really mate, at the minute he's locked unless something gets reported that seriously scares me off.
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:48:18 PM
Quote from: GM on December 28, 2014, 08:45:53 PM
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:42:34 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on December 28, 2014, 08:38:00 PM
I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.
Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.
Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)
So , no hesitation G?
Not really mate, at the minute he's locked unless something gets reported that seriously scares me off.
Had an injury late last season by all accounts...that scares me :-\
The annual pre season Ablett discussion.
-People question him
-Most start him anyway
-A few don't
-Those few get egg on their face.
Quote from: T Dog on December 28, 2014, 09:01:34 PM
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:48:18 PM
Quote from: GM on December 28, 2014, 08:45:53 PM
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:42:34 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on December 28, 2014, 08:38:00 PM
I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.
Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.
Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)
So , no hesitation G?
Not really mate, at the minute he's locked unless something gets reported that seriously scares me off.
Had an injury late last season by all accounts...that scares me :-\
Close attention to all reports and NAB hopefully alleviates any of the concerns we have mate.
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 09:06:13 PM
Quote from: T Dog on December 28, 2014, 09:01:34 PM
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:48:18 PM
Quote from: GM on December 28, 2014, 08:45:53 PM
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:42:34 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on December 28, 2014, 08:38:00 PM
I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.
Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.
Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)
So , no hesitation G?
Not really mate, at the minute he's locked unless something gets reported that seriously scares me off.
Had an injury late last season by all accounts...that scares me :-\
Close attention to all reports and NAB hopefully alleviates any of the concerns we have mate.
That will do it.....tho will probably ignore it all and start him as usual ::)
If he's fit for round 1 ill be starting captain Ablett.
I thought a lot this year about whether I would start Ablett after he nearly pushed the 700k bracket. I ended up starting him and glad I did. In 2013 he started at 740k and he did drop but his scores were still massive, his final price reflected a string of bad games at the end of the year. Bottom line he's too good not to start him.
With bargain options around, in mid and in other positions (Belly, Clark, Whitecross, Rich, Waters, Leuenberger, Kreuzer) - all these guys are priced below what they can score you so you're easily saving the cash to invest into an Ablett over a Jelwood/Watson/JPK/Beams... He will probably come down in price but then again that's what everyone said this year, and he tore up the opening rounds, his price didn't drop below it's start point until round 12. Ask yourself if you can afford not to have a guy who can average 140-150 points (as he did for those opening 12 rounds) for the first half of the season?
The gamble is maybe he can't do that again. And maybe he can't. But he'll probably go at least 120, good luck picking the value horse who gives you that consistently while saving you cash now...
If you aren't starting with Ablett I think you pretty much have to have Pendles, Fyfe, Jelwood and another big gun. I wouldn't start Rocky or Beams til we see how they travel together, I would be picking one of Watson or JPK... Round 12 bye is gonna suck this year!
At the end of the day, he'll score exactly what you've paid for him too. If you save $100k and lose 20 points (eg Barlow at 112ppg vs Ablett at 132), that $100k can go and make you 20ppg elsewhere EASILY if used correctly. Could turn a midpricer into a premium. Sure it's tough bringing in a $700k player, but it's also equally tough bringing in 2 $600k guys too because you had to start a premium short.
I would love him. Will go 130+ again. Will he improve? Probably not. Will guys like Pendlebury and Barlow with the same bye? Probably. Therefore I'll start with them, because I can cram more value out of them, and therefore even more points elsewhere too.
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on December 28, 2014, 11:26:31 PM
At the end of the day, he'll score exactly what you've paid for him too. If you save $100k and lose 20 points (eg Barlow at 112ppg vs Ablett at 132), that $100k can go and make you 20ppg elsewhere EASILY if used correctly. Could turn a midpricer into a premium. Sure it's tough bringing in a $700k player, but it's also equally tough bringing in 2 $600k guys too because you had to start a premium short.
I would love him. Will go 130+ again. Will he improve? Probably not. Will guys like Pendlebury and Barlow with the same bye? Probably. Therefore I'll start with them, because I can cram more value out of them, and therefore even more points elsewhere too.
Need to factor in the captaincy shower too.
E.g. Ablett 132x2 + 105avg mid (20ppg less than Pendles essentially) = 369 points
Pendles 125x2 + Barlow 112 = 362 points
So unless you can pick out a player (or two) who improves by a fair bit, there's not really much to gain by not going with Ablett unless you think his avg will drop significantly, and/or someone like Pendles (who will be your captain) will increase significantly.
Barring injury, Gaz is locked for me atm.
Quote from: GoLions on December 28, 2014, 11:32:41 PM
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on December 28, 2014, 11:26:31 PM
At the end of the day, he'll score exactly what you've paid for him too. If you save $100k and lose 20 points (eg Barlow at 112ppg vs Ablett at 132), that $100k can go and make you 20ppg elsewhere EASILY if used correctly. Could turn a midpricer into a premium. Sure it's tough bringing in a $700k player, but it's also equally tough bringing in 2 $600k guys too because you had to start a premium short.
I would love him. Will go 130+ again. Will he improve? Probably not. Will guys like Pendlebury and Barlow with the same bye? Probably. Therefore I'll start with them, because I can cram more value out of them, and therefore even more points elsewhere too.
Need to factor in the captaincy shower too.
E.g. Ablett 132x2 + 105avg mid (20ppg less than Pendles essentially) = 369 points
Pendles 125x2 + Barlow 112 = 362 points
So unless you can pick out a player (or two) who improves by a fair bit, there's not really much to gain by not going with Ablett unless you think his avg will drop significantly, and/or someone like Pendles (who will be your captain) will increase significantly.
Barring injury, Gaz is locked for me atm.
You are spot on, but the improvement is what I'm currently seeing. Yes there is the captaincy. But I think Ablett will start "slowly" (130ppg), Pendles is a few points underpriced (127) and so is Barlow (114).
FWIW I didn't start Pendles this year. Sure he scored a lot o' points, but picking him up straight after his bye avoided a donut. Lost say 10ppg having someone else instead (-70 points). Replacement scored 115 that week (so +45 points), and had a bye at a time where I had cover (who albeit probably scored 45 points less). So it all came down to where I spent that extra cash, which I'm sure ended up netting me some points. As said I'd love to start Ablett, but it all comes down to byes, and this time round it's Ablett who isn't underpriced.
If you are going for overall you start Ablett or fall behind. Simple as that.
You can try and justify squeezing points out of others with more value but at the end of the day there is no player more valuable than Ablett because he is a perma captain and goes big EVERY week.
Quote from: Grazz on December 28, 2014, 08:42:34 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on December 28, 2014, 08:38:00 PM
I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.
Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.
Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)
Not fussed what stats say of Ablett... He's going to out score everyone. Picking the best partnership of players is the key and I reckon this will be the first year it's comfortably possible without picking Ablett.
Especially with Watson, Cotchin, Kennedy, Ward, Barlow and Pendles&Fyfe to an extent underpriced!
Pendlebury (125)x2, Fyfe (125), Kennedy (120), Ward(120), Watson (115) = 730
Ablett (130)x2, Pendlebury (125), Kennedy (120), Watson (115), 520> (105) = 725
I reckon with more players capably of captain scores in the first mid on average over the weeks you don't have Ablett your captain will end up averaging more than him if you loophole well.
I would like to see him play at least 1 NAB cup game otherwise I will be skeptical with the shoulder since there have been so many rumors it isn't coming up right.
There is over 3 months till the seasons starts so not concerned about his shoulder yet I think this year he was going to spend a lot more time forward so score less , wrong , I'm guessing the ones that did not start him this year will be next year they learnt there lesson , the ones that don't start him next year will have to learn that painful lesson :P
The thing with this is Ablett shares the same byes as Pendles, Fyfe, Watson and JPK so as has been said Round 12 will be a killer.
Read an interview up here where Eade said Ablett still has improvement in him which is a scary thought. Only issue I have atm is he had a setback with his shoulder (was reported in September from memory where some adjustments had to be made) which like all everyone will be watching.
Nearly a lock for me if named in Round 1 and Pendles will be upgraded for him.
To all of those who are not starting him - thanks for the head start 8)
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 29, 2014, 10:43:30 AM
To all of those who are not starting him - thanks for the head start 8)
He's got a tough match up in round one though
Quote from: Big Mac on December 29, 2014, 12:39:17 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 29, 2014, 10:43:30 AM
To all of those who are not starting him - thanks for the head start 8)
He's got a tough match up in round one though
good In any matchup, will likely stick the VC or C on him.
If you're not starting Ablett, he has to be your first upgrade target surely, so here's something else to consider.
2014 - first 6 rounds averaged 148
2013 - first 6 rounds averaged 137
2012 - first 4 rounds (was injured) averaged 148 - and then averaged 135 in next 4 games after injury
2011 - first 6 rounds averaged 118 - first year at Suns, player support would have been poor and he was often tagged, not that this bothers him
2010 - first 6 rounds averaged 155
2009 - first 6 rounds averaged 148
Should I carry on?
If you don't start him and he pulls those numbers then a) you lose those points and b) his price DOESN'T DROP.
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on December 28, 2014, 11:58:03 PM
But I think Ablett will start "slowly" (130ppg), Pendles is a few points underpriced (127) and so is Barlow (114).
Slow start for Ablett according to those numbers is more like 140... I really don't think his shoulder is going to be that much of an issue, but we'll find out I guess. I also have Pendles and could put in Barlow if I wanted. Ablett is not the place you want to be saving cash.
Seriously, I think people should plan to have Ablett IN until there is clear reason to take him out (ie he doesn't start the year or is absolutely horrible in NAB, by that I mean kicks goals for the wrong team), rather than planning to have him out and regretting it (which you will) later on...
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 29, 2014, 10:43:30 AM
To all of those who are not starting him - thanks for the head start 8)
Its Groundhog Day every year with the reasons why people won't start him. I haven't seen anything new in this thread just the same theories which end up in the rubbish bin after 5 rounds. All i can really say is SC is easier to do well in with him than it is without him. For me thats the bottom line right there.
Edit: Love your work GCSK.
Quote from: Grazz on December 29, 2014, 01:13:38 PM
Its Groundhog Day every year with the reasons why people won't start him. I haven't seen anything new in this thread just the same theories which end up in the rubbish bin after 5 rounds. All i can really say is SC is easier to do well in with him than it is without him. For me thats the bottom line right there.
Edit: Love your work GCSK.
Agree Grazz only real issue for me is the bye structure with Suns, Dockers, Pies, Swans and Bombers all sharing the Round 12 bye, So it is a case of who out of Ablett, Pendles, Fyfe, Jpk or Watson to leave out. All will be top 10 imo. Bye structure this year has made prem mids interesting.
If the byes are a concern for you, then get rid of another player in that bye round - not Gary :)
I'm not even going to contribute to this malarkey.....
Quote from: Holz on December 29, 2014, 12:52:16 PM
Quote from: Big Mac on December 29, 2014, 12:39:17 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 29, 2014, 10:43:30 AM
To all of those who are not starting him - thanks for the head start 8)
He's got a tough match up in round one though
good In any matchup, will likely stick the VC or C on him.
So will I mate was just taking the piss
Unfortunately, people don't like to be told, they need to find out for themselves.
Every year, coaches put forward the "I'll start without Gary and bring him in when his price drops/after the bye plan" but then they LEARN that they should have started with him and never make that mistake again, and consequently scramble to work out how to get him into their team.
So lets stop trying to convince those that haven't learned the number one rule yet and let them learn for themselves.
But for all of us who have been riding the GAJ train for many years, the time is getting closer when he may not deliver, I just hope it's not this year!
First picked perma Captain Gary Ablett Jr is KING!
Quote from: Big Mac on December 29, 2014, 08:03:51 PM
Quote from: Holz on December 29, 2014, 12:52:16 PM
Quote from: Big Mac on December 29, 2014, 12:39:17 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 29, 2014, 10:43:30 AM
To all of those who are not starting him - thanks for the head start 8)
He's got a tough match up in round one though
good In any matchup, will likely stick the VC or C on him.
So will I mate was just taking the piss
Cross should be able to hold him to 150
Quote from: meow meow on December 29, 2014, 08:11:42 PM
Quote from: Big Mac on December 29, 2014, 08:03:51 PM
Quote from: Holz on December 29, 2014, 12:52:16 PM
Quote from: Big Mac on December 29, 2014, 12:39:17 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 29, 2014, 10:43:30 AM
To all of those who are not starting him - thanks for the head start 8)
He's got a tough match up in round one though
good In any matchup, will likely stick the VC or C on him.
So will I mate was just taking the piss
Cross should be able to hold him to 150
haha
Moron: I'm not starting Ablett because of his shoulder.
Non-moron: Who will your captain be?
Moron: This guy...
(http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/Collingwood/Images/141003_pendlebury600.jpg)
He had to go in for surgery, they are pretty sore from carrying Collingwood :P
Absolute champion and a points machine, first guy I pick every year.
:)
Gazza the pure weight for age champion. Worth every cent. And even if he were to go bad it would be easier down trading than to upgrade him if you started without him and he was on fire. Only logical conclusion is to start him. ;)
Gaj has managed to keep pretty fit, more good news.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-10/gazzas-pb
Quote from: meow meow on December 29, 2014, 09:11:59 PM
Moron: I'm not starting Ablett because of his shoulder.
Non-moron: Who will your captain be?
Moron: This guy...
(http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/Collingwood/Images/141003_pendlebury600.jpg)
Add Fyfe to that list.
Quote from: meow meow on December 29, 2014, 09:11:59 PM
Moron: I'm not starting Ablett because of his shoulder.
Non-moron: Who will your captain be?
Moron: This guy...
(http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/Collingwood/Images/141003_pendlebury600.jpg)
HAHA thats brilliant!!! ;D ;D ;D
The guy is nearly 31 and ran a PB in the 2k time trial :o
You'd be mad not to Ablett.
Have to. Hard to find the cash for him later. Do it at the start and save a trade.
Must start at least three of GAJ, Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe. Or more like, must start at least two of Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe.
Quote from: redfield on January 14, 2015, 11:09:37 AM
Must start at least three of GAJ, Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe. Or more like, must start at least two of Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe.
Rocky likely drop and Fyfer injury prone and suspension prone.
Agree on Ablett Pendles though.
going Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson myself.
Quote from: Holz on January 14, 2015, 01:07:52 PM
Quote from: redfield on January 14, 2015, 11:09:37 AM
Must start at least three of GAJ, Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe. Or more like, must start at least two of Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe.
Rocky likely drop and Fyfer injury prone and suspension prone.
Agree on Ablett Pendles though.
going Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson myself.
I'm also going with a Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson holz combo
Quote from: meow meow on January 14, 2015, 01:16:15 PM
Quote from: Holz on January 14, 2015, 01:07:52 PM
Quote from: redfield on January 14, 2015, 11:09:37 AM
Must start at least three of GAJ, Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe. Or more like, must start at least two of Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe.
Rocky likely drop and Fyfer injury prone and suspension prone.
Agree on Ablett Pendles though.
going Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson myself.
I'm also going with a Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson holz combo
That's a nice looking midfield lineup but round 12 is not going to be fun for either of you.
I know the 'do we start without ablett" thread comes around every preseason and usually the guys who propose starting without him are rightly mocked and then they quickly realise they are screwed and have to scramble to trade him in, sometimes paying more than his starting price etc etc. However, Ablett cannot outscore all other players forever. There WILL come a time when it is the right decision NOT to select him. This year is as good a time as any in the last few years. He is 30 and his preseason has been interrupted. Those are facts. I have always been one of the blokes who says “pick Ablett or you will regret itâ€. And I probably will pick him. But I am still undecided and he is not in my team now.
Now let’s just say it’s the first quarter of round 1 and some parasite like Macaffer bumps him and he pulls up sore. Eade is not going to muck around. He might say “stuff this I can’t take any risks with this bloke, I need to make finals†and subs him off with a score of 25. Then they also give him an extra week or 2 to rest because they all know it is close to the end of the world if he doesn’t play finals or plays injured. This scenario is not outside the realm of possibility. Suddenly all those fools who didn’t select him are laughing all the way to the supercoach bank while everyone else agonises over the decision to trade him or not, fearing that a 2 week lay off may turn into 4. It’s an interesting situation. I think it’s great that for the first time in years there may be some merit in not picking him.
Quote from: ben_020285 on January 14, 2015, 01:26:55 PM
Quote from: meow meow on January 14, 2015, 01:16:15 PM
Quote from: Holz on January 14, 2015, 01:07:52 PM
Quote from: redfield on January 14, 2015, 11:09:37 AM
Must start at least three of GAJ, Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe. Or more like, must start at least two of Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe.
Rocky likely drop and Fyfer injury prone and suspension prone.
Agree on Ablett Pendles though.
going Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson myself.
I'm also going with a Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson holz combo
That's a nice looking midfield lineup but round 12 is not going to be fun for either of you.
I think holz has the bye in round 11 so he should be a good captain option in R12
Quote from: Speculator on January 14, 2015, 01:31:21 PM
I know the 'do we start without ablett" thread comes around every preseason and usually the guys who propose starting without him are rightly mocked and then they quickly realise they are screwed and have to scramble to trade him in, sometimes paying more than his starting price etc etc. However, Ablett cannot outscore all other players forever. There WILL come a time when it is the right decision NOT to select him. This year is as good a time as any in the last few years. He is 30 and his preseason has been interrupted. Those are facts. I have always been one of the blokes who says “pick Ablett or you will regret itâ€. And I probably will pick him. But I am still undecided and he is not in my team now.
Now let’s just say it’s the first quarter of round 1 and some parasite like Macaffer bumps him and he pulls up sore. Eade is not going to muck around. He might say “stuff this I can’t take any risks with this bloke, I need to make finals†and subs him off with a score of 25. Then they also give him an extra week or 2 to rest because they all know it is close to the end of the world if he doesn’t play finals or plays injured. This scenario is not outside the realm of possibility. Suddenly all those fools who didn’t select him are laughing all the way to the supercoach bank while everyone else agonises over the decision to trade him or not, fearing that a 2 week lay off may turn into 4. It’s an interesting situation. I think it’s great that for the first time in years there may be some merit in not picking him.
Ok ill start
Did you watch the Suns in the matches after Ablett was injured?
Unfortunately living on the Coast means we have no choice here but to watch the Suns matches
They were absolutely pathetic without Ablett in the midfield, all of the other very good mids were targeted more when he was injured and they folded under the pressure. They need Ablett in the mids- he takes all the heat and the others can go about their business as they wish, when he is out they are no good.
I cannot see a good reason why he will be rested if they are trying to fight for a 7th or 8th on the ladder?
Simply if he continues with his excellent pre-season (he just ran a PB in the time trial) and lines up round one (which, barring injury, he will) he is still a lock for me.
Quote from: meow meow on January 14, 2015, 01:39:23 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on January 14, 2015, 01:26:55 PM
Quote from: meow meow on January 14, 2015, 01:16:15 PM
Quote from: Holz on January 14, 2015, 01:07:52 PM
Quote from: redfield on January 14, 2015, 11:09:37 AM
Must start at least three of GAJ, Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe. Or more like, must start at least two of Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe.
Rocky likely drop and Fyfer injury prone and suspension prone.
Agree on Ablett Pendles though.
going Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson myself.
I'm also going with a Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson holz combo
That's a nice looking midfield lineup but round 12 is not going to be fun for either of you.
I think holz has the bye in round 11 so he should be a good captain option in R12
i'm a good captain option every round.
Quote from: Holz on January 14, 2015, 02:02:57 PM
Quote from: meow meow on January 14, 2015, 01:39:23 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on January 14, 2015, 01:26:55 PM
Quote from: meow meow on January 14, 2015, 01:16:15 PM
Quote from: Holz on January 14, 2015, 01:07:52 PM
Quote from: redfield on January 14, 2015, 11:09:37 AM
Must start at least three of GAJ, Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe. Or more like, must start at least two of Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe.
Rocky likely drop and Fyfer injury prone and suspension prone.
Agree on Ablett Pendles though.
going Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson myself.
I'm also going with a Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson holz combo
That's a nice looking midfield lineup but round 12 is not going to be fun for either of you.
I think holz has the bye in round 11 so he should be a good captain option in R12
i'm a good captain option every round.
Any truth to the rumour that you're unlikely to be ready for round one?
Quote from: redfield on January 14, 2015, 04:16:50 PM
Quote from: Holz on January 14, 2015, 02:02:57 PM
Quote from: meow meow on January 14, 2015, 01:39:23 PM
Quote from: ben_020285 on January 14, 2015, 01:26:55 PM
Quote from: meow meow on January 14, 2015, 01:16:15 PM
Quote from: Holz on January 14, 2015, 01:07:52 PM
Quote from: redfield on January 14, 2015, 11:09:37 AM
Must start at least three of GAJ, Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe. Or more like, must start at least two of Rocky, Pendles and Fyfe.
Rocky likely drop and Fyfer injury prone and suspension prone.
Agree on Ablett Pendles though.
going Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson myself.
I'm also going with a Ablett Pendles Selwood JPK Watson holz combo
That's a nice looking midfield lineup but round 12 is not going to be fun for either of you.
I think holz has the bye in round 11 so he should be a good captain option in R12
i'm a good captain option every round.
Any truth to the rumour that you're unlikely to be ready for round one?
came back a little pudgy for the preseason but in full training mode. The ankle doesn't seem to be troubling me too much, so should be all good.
@AaronKirk
I'm not saying they will rest him. I'm merely suggesting that Eade will not want to risk further injury to his number 1 asset. Personally if I were Eade I would be taking a very cautious approach with that shoulder especially early in the season where it sounds like he may not play any nab. It's all very well to run a PB at training. It's a different matter to build match fitness without any preseason matches under your belt. Remember he needs to score 140's to maintain his price. A sub 100 score or 2 in the first few games will be gold for any non Ablett owners, who it appears will once again be in the minority.
If round one was tomorrow Ablett would play.
I doubt he will play in the NAB- no point.
More risk to leave him out than not to start with him.
The seasoned guns of the comp just loaf around the ground during the nab anyway.
Not gonna concern Ablett weather he plays in it or not
Just Pendles, Kennedy, Selwood and Ward for me. Really love having 4 premiums at both ends of the ground and a set-and-forget ruck combo.
Got Gaz pendles selwood Jpk danger. Not concerned about round 12 boys?
Thinking Jpk will become Ward becoz of th byes. Only real reason I'm starting danger is his bye?
Quote from: Dayze on January 15, 2015, 11:06:42 AM
Got Gaz pendles selwood Jpk danger. Not concerned about round 12 boys?
Thinking Jpk will become Ward becoz of th byes. Only real reason I'm starting danger is his bye?
Same here, Ward over JpK atm for me!
Technically averaged 142 because of his injured game v Pies. Makes him 30k underpriced… JUST SAYING
:)
Ablett = LOCK all said. The pros and cons add up to nothing if your opponent has him playing v you and he is captain.
Repeat Ablett = LOCK. Cheers. ;)
I started without Ablett 2 years ago and I will never make that mistake again
Quote from: blue on February 02, 2015, 07:20:35 PM
I started without Ablett 2 years ago and I will never make that mistake again
(http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/173/576/Wat8.jpg)
Quote from: nrich102 on February 02, 2015, 08:39:10 PM
Quote from: blue on February 02, 2015, 07:20:35 PM
I started without Ablett 2 years ago and I will never make that mistake again
(http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/173/576/Wat8.jpg)
The Herald sun is reporting that he is favouring his good shoulder at training and he marked the ball with one hand only. Ashcroft said he is tracking along nicely but I don't necessarily believe him. Personally I'm a bit concerned. So concerned I've removed him from my team.
I heard the same thing on SEN about him favouring his shoulder. I have started Ablett every year, but I will need to see him at training or playing before making a decision on whether to start with him, or choose a cheaper fully fit premium midfielder and make Ablett first upgrade.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/suns-insist-gary-ablett-will-be-back-playing-during-pre-season-cup/story-e6frf3e3-1227205538128?sv=ddb5afce64ebc5a28f6a547a0e5b28aa#itm_s=foxs&itm_t=home&itm_c=content-3&itm_o=1&itm_l=Fox Feed - Gaz shoulder no cause for alarm: Suns
THE Gold Coast Suns insist that dual Brownlow medallist Gary Ablett remains on track for a return to action in the pre-season NAB Cup.
The star midfielder raised eyebrows yesterday when he appeared to have restricted movement in his reconstructed left shoulder.
Ablett merely ran laps, then had a few kicks and some marking practice, although he did not use his left arm when taking marks.
Ablett was in Melbourne late last week for a third check-up on his shoulder but Suns football manager Marcus Ashcroft said the routine visit to the surgeon was all positive.
“Gary met with the surgeon in Melbourne and he’s tracking along nicely,†Ashcroft said.
“He’s on a program which our guys have had in place for a while now and from our point of view we have no problems or issues with his shoulder.
"We think he’s on track to be right to play (by the NAB Cup).â€
It's 2months until round 1, plenty of time to get rid of any sort of soreness if its true. Running-wise he's the fittest he's been at GC. Locked in my team along with Rocky
Quote from: Ricochet on February 03, 2015, 10:29:52 AM
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/suns-insist-gary-ablett-will-be-back-playing-during-pre-season-cup/story-e6frf3e3-1227205538128?sv=ddb5afce64ebc5a28f6a547a0e5b28aa#itm_s=foxs&itm_t=home&itm_c=content-3&itm_o=1&itm_l=Fox Feed - Gaz shoulder no cause for alarm: Suns
THE Gold Coast Suns insist that dual Brownlow medallist Gary Ablett remains on track for a return to action in the pre-season NAB Cup.
The star midfielder raised eyebrows yesterday when he appeared to have restricted movement in his reconstructed left shoulder.
Ablett merely ran laps, then had a few kicks and some marking practice, although he did not use his left arm when taking marks.
Ablett was in Melbourne late last week for a third check-up on his shoulder but Suns football manager Marcus Ashcroft said the routine visit to the surgeon was all positive.
“Gary met with the surgeon in Melbourne and he’s tracking along nicely,†Ashcroft said.
“He’s on a program which our guys have had in place for a while now and from our point of view we have no problems or issues with his shoulder.
"We think he’s on track to be right to play (by the NAB Cup).â€
It's 2months until round 1, plenty of time to get rid of any sort of soreness if its true. Running-wise he's the fittest he's been at GC. Locked in my team along with Rocky
Yep, until it's obvious he's not at full strength, he's a lock.
I would've liked to see him mark the ball with two hands by now.
Quote from: Speculator on February 03, 2015, 04:17:29 PM
I would've liked to see him mark the ball with two hands by now.
It's still a long way out from the season. Even if he was perfectly fine now, there's just no reason not to be 3267% cautious about it all, because IF he were to somehow re-inure it, you would imagine being a shoulder that it would become an ongoing issue. He's just making sure its 500% good to go!
There are a few issues here but the guy is a genius and fitter than ever. Id rather have him and burn a trade offloading him than start without him.
Hes probably being extra cautious not to suffer a set back but in the heat of battle he wont shirk a tackle or avoid a bump. Hes a fierce competitor.
Hes in until I see him do something that worries me in an actual game. (Prob NAB cup)