Rohan and Michie out Matt Thomas Ambrose in
Yes
Yes do it. I would not be surprised if Michie is omitted this week.
Quote from: BigMac_93 on March 31, 2014, 09:10:16 PM
Yes do it. I would not be surprised if Michie is omitted this week.
Just worried on Ambrose job security
wastes of trades
Quote from: fever on March 31, 2014, 10:14:29 PM
wastes of trades
disagree - they are corrective trades that will generate more a lot more cash the the current incumbents.
Quote from: BigMac_93 on March 31, 2014, 09:10:16 PM
Yes do it. I would not be surprised if Michie is omitted this week.
Why would he be omitted?
rohan->ambrose is probably breakeven in terms of price rises over the season. not to mention JS queries.
thomas will obv score better than michie, but he will need to consistently go large to make more than michie scoring 60-70 per week. sure he's been good and it wouldve been cool to start him, but he has never (to my knowledge) been able to score consistently, so why risk it? what if he cindarellas back to his old non-relevant SC scoring?
plus you then factor in each trade being "worth" roughly 100k. i'd very confidently bet you that come round 15 you'd rather the two trades up your sleeve than the possibly 50-100k extra cash (and that is best case scenario imo).
:)
Following those trades you would make more money and score more points. But as pointed out trades are very valuable so I'd put it this way, have a good look at your team and if you think you have 12 to 13 keepers then go for it. If not then hold off. Cheers and all the best of luck mate. ;D
Quote from: GCSkiwi on March 28, 2014, 10:32:47 AM
Not sure why people are on Michie's case, he got 61, what were you expecting? Not worth the trade and an extra $80k for Thomas, 10ppg is effectively $50k price difference so you're needing Thomas to average ~16ppg greater than Michie just to break even on their profits. Now, Thomas has done well in 2 games so far and is definitely over that 16ppg limit but also be aware that Michie has a round 10 bye and Thomas is round 8 - you have 2 more rounds to profit off Michie than Thomas. I suspect by that stage the difference between them will be much less than the scores currently indicate - enough so that a trade won't really be worth it.
This was before Michie then got 53 but I still stand by these points. Thomas won't maintain a 120 average and I expect Michie to be able to average 65ish. That means to make the same amount of money Thomas needs to average 80ish. He may well do that, but again Michie has 2 extra rounds taking into account the byes, and this is just the scenario to BREAK EVEN. Which means a trade to bring in Thomas who then ends up making the same amount of money as Michie anyway. For this trade to be worth it you have to back Thomas to average 100 really, i.e. be a keeper M8. I don't see it.
Don't like it, not enough worth for 2 trades. If you were freeing up cash doing these trades it is worth considering, but he straight double swap is not worth it. Rohan should improves, as will Michie, the only way is down for Ambrose and Thomas
some of you guys really expect too much from some players.
Quote from: GCSkiwi on April 01, 2014, 07:13:46 AMFor this trade to be worth it you have to back Thomas to average 100 really, i.e. be a keeper M8. I don't see it.
you bring in a 250K player and you expect him to be a "keeper" and hold a M8 spot to be "worth it"
preseason many people saw Daisy scoring 90's as a stepping stone, but a 250K Thomas isnt worth it because he isnt a keeper.
LOL, big expectations mate, why cant he be a stepping stone too??
a trade is generally said to be worth 150K, Thomas with a BE of -90, definitely looks to make that 150-200K in only 3 weeks. worth it i say.
Michie only looks to gain 60-70K on his current score avg in the same time frame.
michie + 80K (thomas) + 60K = 310K
Thomas + 150K = 400K
still 90K better off in your kitty.
Thomas gets more game time than michie too, that must count for something.
he's a tackling machine, 18 tackles so far. 5th best tackler so far. tackles = points.
even if he drops to a 90 avg, you can still upgrade quicker to a fallen premo with Thomas than you can with michie.
isnt that the whole point??
As it stands at the moment id say do it...but im just worried about thomas' role once Daniel Jackson comes back into the team
Quote from: Keeper27 on April 01, 2014, 07:40:51 AM
some of you guys really expect too much from some players.
Quote from: GCSkiwi on April 01, 2014, 07:13:46 AMFor this trade to be worth it you have to back Thomas to average 100 really, i.e. be a keeper M8. I don't see it.
you bring in a 250K player and you expect him to be a "keeper" and hold a M8 spot to be "worth it"
preseason many people saw Daisy scoring 90's as a stepping stone, but a 250K Thomas isnt worth it because he isnt a keeper.
LOL, big expectations mate, why cant he be a stepping stone too??
a trade is generally said to be worth 150K, Thomas with a BE of -90, definitely looks to make that 150-200K in only 3 weeks. worth it i say.
Michie only looks to gain 60-70K on his current score avg in the same time frame.
michie + 80K (thomas) + 60K = 310K
Thomas + 150K = 400K
still 90K better off in your kitty.
Thomas gets more game time than michie too, that must count for something.
he's a tackling machine, 18 tackles so far. 5th best tackler so far. tackles = points.
even if he drops to a 90 avg, you can still upgrade quicker to a fallen premo with Thomas than you can with michie.
isnt that the whole point??
If you started with Daisy then fine, you wouldn't be trading him in now though would you? Thomas could be a stepping stone, but not a stepping stone that is worth trading in at the expense of Michie. You say I'm expecting too much of players, what about all those who are going to dump Michie already? What was expected of him?
Most people aren't looking to offload players quickly in this mids, I'm banking that my upgrades are going to be over the bye period as that's usually when cash cows top out. And if you read that quote in context, I'm saying that for the trade to be worth it Thomas would need to keep scoring at a level that would effectively make him a keeper, therefore the money becomes irrelevant as you wouldn't trade him out. cost 1 trade to bring him in now plus one trade to boot him out later, as opposed to holding Michie and just 1 trade to boot Michie later on. And sure, if we're talking over the next 3 weeks then Thomas will make more money. But imo that's poor management of your cash cows, as neither will be near max by then.
As for your equation, you're saying a trade is worth $150k right? So:
michie + 80K (thomas) + 60K = 310K
Thomas + 150K -$150k (trade value) = 250K
still worth it?
Your team, your decision. I think it's ill advised. Just an opinion.
I get what you are saying. But I was only using 3 weeks as an example.
In the following weeks after Thomas would have taken over Michie in cash generation.
Even if you take out the 150k for the trade.
Not a fan of the Thomas trade tbh.
Quote from: Keeper27 on April 01, 2014, 11:04:36 AM
I get what you are saying. But I was only using 3 weeks as an example.
In the following weeks after Thomas would have taken over Michie in cash generation.
Even if you take out the 150k for the trade.
Ok but if you accept that you basically negate the value of the trade in 3 weeks, remember the value of his increases will also come down. He's not going to increase at an average of 50k a week for 6 weeks straight. He'll rocket up in the first 3 weeks but after that his rolling average becomes the 100 or whatever he's at, all of a sudden his breakeven is high...
So if after 3 weeks you're 60k better off keeping Michie based off:
michie + 80K (thomas) + 60K = 310K
Thomas + 150K -$150k (trade value) = 250K
Sure in a few weeks moreThomas might close that gap, but I put that at around week 9 - Thomas has a week off in week 8 where Michie makes some cash, week 9 they're even, week 10 out goes Michie. Maybe week 11-12 out goes Thomas. So you only really end up breaking even or making a very small gain on it, why bother?
same can be said for michie, he'll be gaining only 5-10K after those 3 weeks if he keeps going like he does.
while Thomas will be around the 30-35K at the same time, he'll catch him by by then and then some.
much much better trade option IMO, quicker upgrade too.
but hey thats just my thoughts.
Quote from: Keeper27 on April 01, 2014, 12:16:24 PM
same can be said for michie, he'll be gaining only 5-10K after those 3 weeks if he keeps going like he does.
while Thomas will be around the 30-35K at the same time, he'll catch him by by then and then some.
much much better trade option IMO, quicker upgrade too.
but hey thats just my thoughts.
Yep fair enough. I think we just disagree over whether the end result is worth the cost of the trade, I say no, you say yes. Everyone gets to decide for themselves. :D
this is an approximation from Tooserious.net
Matt Thomas
$250,300.00 (avg) 119, (BE) -90, (Salary Movement) $91,571.00, (Salary Movement 2)$66,897.00, (Salary Movement 3)$49,948.00
thats more closer to 200K increase than 150 that i said before.
So if after 3 weeks you're ONLY 10k better off keeping Michie based off:
michie + 80K (thomas) + 60K = 310K
Thomas + 200K -$150k (trade value) = 300K
and again, after those weeks Michie's increase will lower to about 5-10K, while Thomas will drop to 30-35K in the weeks after.
Quote from: Keeper27 on April 01, 2014, 01:06:10 PM
this is an approximation from Tooserious.net
Matt Thomas
$250,300.00 (avg) 119, (BE) -90, (Salary Movement) $91,571.00, (Salary Movement 2)$66,897.00, (Salary Movement 3)$49,948.00
thats more closer to 200K increase than 150 that i said before.
So if after 3 weeks you're ONLY 10k better off keeping Michie based off:
michie + 80K (thomas) + 60K = 310K
Thomas + 200K -$150k (trade value) = 300K
and again, after those weeks Michie's increase will lower to about 5-10K, while Thomas will drop to 30-35K in the weeks after.
Those projections rely on the player continuing at their current average though - I'm backing Michie to improve his average and think there is no way Thomas will continue at 119 ;)
(SC gold has Thomas at a BE of -100 and projected score of 90, set to increase $80k. So the only was too serious could project an increase of $90k this week from their incorrect BE of -90 is if he got close to 120, I'm guessing they use the players average).
I'm not disagreeing with you saying Thomas will make money quickly. He certainly will. I'm just saying it's dangerous to look at that in isolation as opposed to part of the grand scheme and what your plans are for players overall.
Don't forget that the players current price dictates heavily with dollars gained. It's much harder to get the same dollar increase off a higher priced player
an interesting debate going on here
have you factored in the extra points that Thomas brings to you team each week - what is the value of this ?
Quote from: Doggoneit on April 01, 2014, 06:55:12 PM
an interesting debate going on here
have you factored in the extra points that Thomas brings to you team each week - what is the value of this ?
I mentioned in one of my earlier posts (which I forgive you for not reading in their entirety, jeez I write a lot) that Thomas's price ris will be rapid, so the upgrade to a prem will likely occur earlier - in any case even if you keep Thomas through the byes you miss 1 week at least through round 8, which you don't miss if you keep Michie and trade him round 10. There will be a difference but let's say Thomas averages 80 points from here and Michie 60, you will be at most 40 points ahead going with Thomas. I think more likely it will be very close to even points. People expecting Thomas to average 120 as he has from 2 games so far will be disappointed I think.
certainly not expecting to continue his current average - 85 to 90 is more realistic week in week out
Michie needs to lift 20 pts per game to have the same value
We now know Thomas can post some big scores - we don't know Michie can.
The Rd8 bye does bring complications to the argument though so I see your reasoning.
Quote from: Doggoneit on April 01, 2014, 09:08:08 PM
Michie needs to lift 20 pts per game to have the same value
This is where I think people are coming unstuck. Thomas is 80k more than Michie to begin with, and price is in part determined by a players current price and in part by their 3 game rolling average. Sure to have the same absolute dollar value Michie probably needs to average about 80ppg also, but to make the same PROFIT on their starting price Michie can get away with 60-65 (assuming Thomas goes at 80-85. This is why I think it isn't worth the trade, as the equation only really looks in Thomas' favour if he can average 90+ even then, until he averages 100+ (for about 6 games) it's only slightly in his favour, and if he's averaging 100+ then surely you would keep him so the price then becomes irrelevant. Trading Michie to Thomas should only be done if you have the faith that Thomas could produce scores that effectively would make him a keeper.
Essentially:
Assume Michie averages 60-65
Thomas 80-85 - no net gain
Thomas 86-95 net gain ~$100k max
Thomas 96-100 net gain ~150k max, probably worth it (personal preference, I would rather have a trade)
Thomas 100+ net gain >150k but also has become irrelevant as you keep him