(http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2010/09/19/1225926/251592-gary-ablett.jpg)
Ablett sees his price fall again
Gary Ablett Jr
Age: 29- will turn 30 in May
Price: $621,700 (fanplanner)
Position: Midfielder
2010: 21 games, 119 average (Geelong)
2011: 20 games, 112 average (GC)
2012: 20 games, 125 average
2013: 21 games, 114.6 average
2013 Scores: 135, 84, 105, 118, 131, 101, 134, 135, 139, 140, 119, 136, 109, 106, 163, 114, 89, 64, 82, 71, 132
Summary
After a huge 125 average in 2012, who could have predicted the huge drop of over 10 points in average? Who else but me. I said this and was shot down and my call rejected by the majority of the FF community. Soon enough, Ablett proved my prediction correct by shedding 10 points of his average and burning over half of dream team players. Onto 2014- there was various factors which I saw bring his average down in 2013. I believe this will continue to reduce his average in 2014. Firstly, there's of course age- as players get older, their average will most likely reduce. Secondly and more importantly in my opinion, the increasing output of his fellow Suns midfielders will take possessions, marks, tackles and goals from Ablett. This includes Jaeger O'Meara, Jack Martin and Dion Prestia, who will all show just how great they are in 2013, plus other guys like Swallow and Bennell. This could mean more time on the bench or on the forward line (more goals?).
Verdict
Another fall in average for Ablett, and it will not be a smart move to pick him, especially at that price. Still a season or two at lower scoring before he becomes one of those reliable but pretty cheap old blokes. "Spudlett" will average approximately
105 in my opinion- another drop in average of 10 points. Still a long way to go in the pre-season could force me to increase or decrease this prediction.
Another prediction: in 2015 he will be a C/F player and be a reliable 100-110 average up forward and a good pick.
Now, for some humour: here's some insightful comments from some of my favourite members of the FF community.
Quote from: Kodboys on March 31, 2013, 12:10:37 AM
Jukes has gone missing, we haven't heard from him all night long!
Was last seen saying the following: 'Spudlett'!
Call 000youwereverywrongjukes@hotmail.com if you've seen him anywhere :P
Quote from: DT Gun on March 31, 2013, 12:27:55 AM
im fine with people doubting mid pricers and rookies
but ablett? Jukes is now a reading on my dumbassometer
Quote from: tbagrocks on March 31, 2013, 02:51:27 AM
Yeah but Jukes was trolling!
Quote from: Jayman on March 31, 2013, 12:21:24 PM
There's a line between standing up for your opinion and stubbornness... Shouldn't give respect to someone that can't see past his own opinion. GAJ is god, if you let Jukes talk you out of selecting him, you are more of an idiot than him :P
Quote from: Jukes on February 10, 2013, 11:33:08 PM
I'll bet you all that Ablett doesn't go 115+.
Quote from: Adamant on February 10, 2013, 11:41:50 PM
Quote from: elephants on February 10, 2013, 11:40:47 PM
I'll take that bet Jukes.
As will I.
Quote from: S_Coach99 on February 10, 2013, 11:55:31 PM
Hahahahahahahahahahaha Doubting Abletts
You spuds a kidding yeah?
Quote from: gwsfevs on February 11, 2013, 12:11:39 AM
Anyone who doubts ablett is a spud
Quote from: elephants on February 11, 2013, 02:44:31 PM
All talk.
Quote from: Windigo on February 12, 2013, 01:10:25 PM
People are clutching at straws trying to find a realistic reason not to pick him. :P
Quote from: henry on April 07, 2013, 01:10:06 PM
If stanton can score 130 against melbourne imagine what gazza will score, new record anyone? :P
134 and 64 (Stanton scored 142)
Special thanks to elephants and Ziplock for being super-double-mega wrong :)
Well done on the prediction mate but starting him was not a bad move this year, with 123ave until the last 6 games.
Nice writeup though
Credit where credit is due. The prediction was made and was nailed.
That said, I'll be very interested to see how 2014's goes for ya mate.
Personally (or not - others more than likely share this view), I hope you're wrong, because the little master has been a 'god' for many fantasy coaches over time and I hope he stays that way.
However, while I do have him in my very ridiculously rough and early draft of a team, he could find himself on the outer and make way for somebody like a Cotchin.
But what happened to this prediction?
Quote from: Jukes on April 16, 2013, 01:26:41 AM
I will give everybody in this thread $20 if Ablett is averaging more than Stants come bye rounds.
You forgot to add tis classic quote from 2013 to the above list Jukes!!!
he is underpriced due his injuries as ric said 123 if you take out the last 6 games.
he was a great pickup and i agree he will drop abit, but from his real average of 123 not from 115.
im expecting 115-117 and with that he is a lock.
while your technically got the call correc,t you got luck with him getting injured. he didnt decline much at all.
So take out more than 25% of the season Holz? That line of reasoning can only go so far... especially as he still played 21 games.
That said, you cannot go wrong with the mighty GAJ, next year might be one of his last as an elite of DT (unless he ups his contested marking and becomes a gun fwd until he's 40)
Quote from: stew42 on October 29, 2013, 12:19:08 PM
So take out more than 25% of the season Holz? That line of reasoning can only go so far... especially as he still played 21 games.
That said, you cannot go wrong with the mighty GAJ, next year might be one of his last as an elite of DT (unless he ups his contested marking and becomes a gun fwd until he's 40)
im taking out the games where he was obviously carrying an injury.
if your trying to say he dropped to 115 because of him declining in age or changing role than its simply wrong.
you can predict for injuries but you need to assume that he stays fully fit next year and based on that i have him as low 120s last year.
Such a biased right up, it's laughable... Ablett saw his average drop away due to injury, not age or overall decline, and to suggest otherwise is ridiculous. He was averaging close to 125 with 6 games to go, while "supreme dream teamer Stanton" was struggling to get a kick... and I recall you "predicting" Stanton was going to smash Ablett in points scored? No thread started in relation to this failed prediction, nostradamus?
Here's a prediction. In 2014 Stanton will start the year on fire, and end up averaging 105 (like every year).
Gary Ablett will average 120 easily if he stays fit.
Well done Jukes, should have seen this write up coming!!
The only way Ablett will end the year at 105av will be injury related.
Just another point, his team makes getting more ball will more than likely help him as much as hinder.
Pies and Cats have shown you can easily have 3 guys with high avg's
Having said that, I think this year I will be waiting for an early price drop or two before loading up.
Quote from: Holzman on October 29, 2013, 01:06:41 PM
Quote from: stew42 on October 29, 2013, 12:19:08 PM
So take out more than 25% of the season Holz? That line of reasoning can only go so far... especially as he still played 21 games.
That said, you cannot go wrong with the mighty GAJ, next year might be one of his last as an elite of DT (unless he ups his contested marking and becomes a gun fwd until he's 40)
im taking out the games where he was obviously carrying an injury.
if your trying to say he dropped to 115 because of him declining in age or changing role than its simply wrong.
you can predict for injuries but you need to assume that he stays fully fit next year and based on that i have him as low 120s last year.
Holz is more or less right on this one. You can take just the last 3 games out and his average is over 115
It's pretty amazing how Jukes manages to make himself slightly relevant despite the thousands of times he's wrong
You can't just take out games where he 'might' have been carrying an injury. Ablett usually picks up a couple of niggling injuries each year anyway. He averaged 115.
However, I can't see him falling as low as 105. Will be starting him again next year.
the plan this year was to start with him and then sidetrade to swan around the byes
shall be enforcing that rule next year :P
Quote from: Jukes on April 16, 2013, 01:26:41 AM
I will give everybody in this thread $20 if Ablett is averaging more than Stants come bye rounds.
Still haven't received my $20 after you made this insightful prediction!
Quote from: Adamant on October 29, 2013, 07:54:27 PM
You can't just take out games where he 'might' have been carrying an injury. Ablett usually picks up a couple of niggling injuries each year anyway. He averaged 115.
However, I can't see him falling as low as 105. Will be starting him again next year.
Why not? It's like not taking injury effected games and sub games out. It may be there score down on paper but it doesn't reflect their ability or the situation that caused the score. You should make your decision thinking he averaged 123 not 115 for 2013. Although I can see a slight decline, maybe 114-118.
Quote from: Holzman on October 29, 2013, 12:10:38 PM
he is underpriced due his injuries as ric said 123 if you take out the last 6 games.
he was a great pickup and i agree he will drop abit, but from his real average of 123 not from 115.
im expecting 115-117 and with that he is a lock.
while your technically got the call correc,t you got luck with him getting injured. he didnt decline much at all.
I said before last season that injury would play a part in his downfall, which "happened". So either;
a) you don't blame injury and just admit he was a spud- I'm right
b) you blame injury like I said would happen- I'm right
Simples.
Quote from: Jukes on October 29, 2013, 10:29:07 PM
Quote from: Holzman on October 29, 2013, 12:10:38 PM
he is underpriced due his injuries as ric said 123 if you take out the last 6 games.
he was a great pickup and i agree he will drop abit, but from his real average of 123 not from 115.
im expecting 115-117 and with that he is a lock.
while your technically got the call correc,t you got luck with him getting injured. he didnt decline much at all.
I said before last season that injury would play a part in his downfall, which "happened". So either;
a) you don't blame injury and just admit he was a spud- I'm right
b) you blame injury like I said would happen- I'm right
Simples.
We are saying you were right with your prediction mate. But we're saying you were wrong when you said he was a bad pickup to start with this year. He was the best player to start with because he averaged 126 over most of the year.
Quote from: Ricochet on October 30, 2013, 11:15:02 AM
Quote from: Jukes on October 29, 2013, 10:29:07 PM
Quote from: Holzman on October 29, 2013, 12:10:38 PM
he is underpriced due his injuries as ric said 123 if you take out the last 6 games.
he was a great pickup and i agree he will drop abit, but from his real average of 123 not from 115.
im expecting 115-117 and with that he is a lock.
while your technically got the call correc,t you got luck with him getting injured. he didnt decline much at all.
I said before last season that injury would play a part in his downfall, which "happened". So either;
a) you don't blame injury and just admit he was a spud- I'm right
b) you blame injury like I said would happen- I'm right
Simples.
We are saying you were right with your prediction mate. But we're saying you were wrong when you said he was a bad pickup to start with this year. He was the best player to start with because he averaged 126 over most of the year.
not only that but given he was my captain for most of the first 15 rounds his value was even higher to my sqaud.
Not starting him next year.
Quote from: KoopKicka on October 30, 2013, 02:54:05 PM
Not starting him next year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFmuO6xJ36g
Quote from: Jukes on October 29, 2013, 10:29:07 PM
Quote from: Holzman on October 29, 2013, 12:10:38 PM
he is underpriced due his injuries as ric said 123 if you take out the last 6 games.
he was a great pickup and i agree he will drop abit, but from his real average of 123 not from 115.
im expecting 115-117 and with that he is a lock.
while your technically got the call correc,t you got luck with him getting injured. he didnt decline much at all.
I said before last season that injury would play a part in his downfall, which "happened". So either;
a) you don't blame injury and just admit he was a spud- I'm right
b) you blame injury like I said would happen- I'm right
Simples.
"spud"
Let me know when Stants takes home a Brownlow... Now, give me my $20 for being horribly wrong!
Jukes mate, we get it, you have a hard on for Stanton.
Simples.
but Stanton's a weird player
I watch him when he scored ~150 (think it was vs Richmond), and wouldn't have thought he'd have tonned up
and then he has those games where he looks on track for a big score, and ends up with 50
he's infuriating to watch
Jukes you made a good call but I can't seriously see why you call him a spud and it's things like that what make you look like a dick.
He won the brownlow for christ sakes and easily takes out the best player going around at the moment, it makes me cringe when I see you calling him a spud, it's just stupid and you make yourself look like a toss
in fairness, he kinda fell over the line for the brownlow
Quote from: pommyadam on November 01, 2013, 02:28:47 PM
in fairness, he kinda fell over the line for the brownlow
He won it though. Thats what matters.
Quote from: pommyadam on November 01, 2013, 02:28:47 PM
in fairness, he kinda fell over the line for the brownlow
Fell over... with a 33 possie 4 goal last game ;)
Quote from: Ricochet on November 01, 2013, 05:26:20 PM
Quote from: pommyadam on November 01, 2013, 02:28:47 PM
in fairness, he kinda fell over the line for the brownlow
Fell over... with a 33 possie 4 goal last game ;)
Yeah he just wanted to draw with Selwood - he had to give him the chance to catch up
The main thing that will affect his scoring next year will be how much the younger Suns can do in the midfield. If he continues to carry the team on his back he will be up against some very hard tags like the Melbourne game where he scored 64, he'll still have his blinders where you'll want him in your side. If O'Meara, Swallow, Bennell, Prestia, etc can lift their games sufficiently he'll be more consistant and may not have as high a ceiling as in the past.
Quote from: Kellogscrunchynut on November 02, 2013, 06:07:55 PM
The main thing that will affect his scoring next year will be how much the younger Suns can do in the midfield. If he continues to carry the team on his back he will be up against some very hard tags like the Melbourne game where he scored 64, he'll still have his blinders where you'll want him in your side. If O'Meara, Swallow, Bennell, Prestia, etc can lift their games sufficiently he'll be more consistant and may not have as high a ceiling as in the past.
Add Martin in there too. Suns have an incredible midfield. Or rather will have an absolutely unbeatable midfield in 3-5 years time
Can't forget Karmeichel Hunt
Quote from: Jukes on November 03, 2013, 06:36:59 PM
Can't forget Karmeichel Hunt
richmond cant :P
Quote from: stew42 on November 03, 2013, 06:15:46 PM
Quote from: Kellogscrunchynut on November 02, 2013, 06:07:55 PM
The main thing that will affect his scoring next year will be how much the younger Suns can do in the midfield. If he continues to carry the team on his back he will be up against some very hard tags like the Melbourne game where he scored 64, he'll still have his blinders where you'll want him in your side. If O'Meara, Swallow, Bennell, Prestia, etc can lift their games sufficiently he'll be more consistant and may not have as high a ceiling as in the past.
Add Martin in there too. Suns have an incredible midfield. Or rather will have an absolutely unbeatable midfield in 3-5 years time
giiiiiiantttts :P
Quote from: Ziplock on November 03, 2013, 08:08:38 PM
Quote from: Jukes on November 03, 2013, 06:36:59 PM
Can't forget Karmeichel Hunt
richmond cant :P
Quote from: stew42 on November 03, 2013, 06:15:46 PM
Quote from: Kellogscrunchynut on November 02, 2013, 06:07:55 PM
The main thing that will affect his scoring next year will be how much the younger Suns can do in the midfield. If he continues to carry the team on his back he will be up against some very hard tags like the Melbourne game where he scored 64, he'll still have his blinders where you'll want him in your side. If O'Meara, Swallow, Bennell, Prestia, etc can lift their games sufficiently he'll be more consistant and may not have as high a ceiling as in the past.
Add Martin in there too. Suns have an incredible midfield. Or rather will have an absolutely unbeatable midfield in 3-5 years time
giiiiiiantttts :P
Nope. O'Meara, Martin, Prestia, Bennell Lonergan, Ablett (if he's still there), Cannon on the wing, chuck in Hunt... top that :P
Salary cap trumps that? Can't really see GCS keeping them all... wonder when hunt/ablett will take a pay cut?
pay rises for all the younger guys will only come along after they cut Hunt
Gold Coast superstar Gary Ablett is poised to remain a key cog in the Suns midfield, says McKenna
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/gold-coast-superstar-gary-ablett-is-poised-to-remain-a-key-cog-in-the-suns-midfield/story-fni5f22o-1226796776329
Holding off until around round 5. Don't have the money in the budget, so far picking Swan, Beams, Scooter & Rocky before him as my starting premos (if I can afford it). I still may need to cull one more :-\
My exact midfield powersuperkents...haha
Swan, Ablett, Scooter, Rocky, Beams...sexy as!
Jukes you're one lucky flowerer.
If Ablett wasn't being forced to play through a knee injury in the last month of last season, his average would have been 120+ and you wouldn't have made this thread (in fact, you would have kept very quiet on the matter).
Anyway, while we are digging up old quotes and sniping people based on these opinions from 12 months ago... I'd like to direct everyone's attention to this thread (seeing as I can't quote from it).
http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,49057.msg656436.html#msg656436
"Stanton will average more then Jelwood by years end, and be about equal with Pendles imo. ~118 average."
Negative.
"Selwood to do a Brad Green and choke with the captaincy."
Negative.
Then a customary Jukes chirp in May after 6 rounds of Stants domination (yep, I'll pay that!)
"So...was I right or was I right!"
Negative.
And then nothing after Stants had his customary drop-off. Ahh, Jukesy.
Brent Stanton: 1935 dt
Gary Ablett: 1787 dt
whoslaughingnow.jpg
Stanton is having a career best season in terms of DT average.
All he has to do is average 13 points more per game and he'll be where Ablett was 7 years ago
Quote from: Jukes on August 10, 2014, 09:10:34 PM
Brent Stanton: 1935 dt
Gary Ablett: 1787 dt
whoslaughingnow.jpg
from what 2 extra games.....
cmon you gotta call it that your anti GAJ stance was debunked this year
1787/22 = 81.227 points per week
2102/22 = 95.545 points per week
So Stants has contributed 14 points per team additional per week, therefore being a more useful contributor to a team. Math.
Quote from: Jukes on August 28, 2014, 12:52:14 AM
1787/22 = 81.227 points per week
2102/22 = 95.545 points per week
So Stants has contributed 14 points per team additional per week, therefore being a more useful contributor to a team. Math.
Except when Ablett went down you would have traded him straight away. Common sense.
flower off troll
Quote from: Spite on August 28, 2014, 01:38:14 AM
Quote from: Jukes on August 28, 2014, 12:52:14 AM
1787/22 = 81.227 points per week
2102/22 = 95.545 points per week
So Stants has contributed 14 points per team additional per week, therefore being a more useful contributor to a team. Math.
Except when Ablett went down you would have traded him straight away. Common sense.
Stants presented a much better 2014 package though, 14 ppw. Did Gold Coast get to trade him away after he got injured?
Quote from: nrich102 on August 28, 2014, 05:41:25 PM
flower off troll
reported
flower off troll
Locked the thread for now but let me just say two things:
1. Jukes, please don't try to stir people. It's not realistic to say that someone was a better pick because the other person got injured. Nobody can predict injuries and it's just a silly thing to say that is fishing for angsty responses.
2. nrich, providing the angsty responses makes you just as bad, if not worse. If you think someone is trolling, the worst thing you can do is respond. If he's not trolling but being sincere, then you're just being unfairly rude. Either way, that response puts you in the wrong.
I made my response public, rather than just messaging you two, so that everyone that sees this can consider this an unofficial warning that this kind of behaviour is just not on. There's no reason for it. If you have any issues with what I've said, please don't hesitate to PM me :)
Play nice, everyone.