Ok lads, ive just placed my bets on for the Brownlow (theres a few) :) , so ive decided to share them here and you guys can make what you want of them.
Firstly though ,here is my 2012 Brownlow count...
Ablett 27
Watson 26
Swan 25
Beams 24
Danger 23
Deledio 23
Cotchin 20
Selwood 20
Mitchell 20
Thompson 19
Kennedy 19
Boyd 19
Now my Cotching/Deledio count is a grey area since there were lots of close calls between those two, in alot of situations they could get none,1 or even 2..
Aswell the Swan/Beams count is a similar problem ,, gettiing into the mind of an umpire :P for a sec. ,Will they be less likely to give votes for last years winner, I can see Beams being handed votes they may have gone Swans way i.e. Beams gets the 3, Swan the 2 ... so they are the grey areas for me
All my bets to come...
OK here are all my bets for this years Brownlow, some are purely chasing value and others are locks.
Deledio(leader after rd 10) $3@67 =$201
Stanton(leader after rd 10) $10@8 =$80
Ablett (winner) $50@4.75 =$237.5
Ablett (winner) $10@9 =$90
Swan (winner) $10@13 =$130
Thompson(winner)$2@51 =$102
Deledio(winner) $2@126 =$252
Rockliff(winner) $1@201 = $201
selwood(winner) $2@52 =$102
Riewoldt(most team votes) $5@26 =$130
Ward(most team votes) $10@5.5 =$55
Grimes(most team votes) $10@17 =$170
Redden(most team votes) $80@3 =$240
Deledio(most team votes) $10@8 =$80
Cox(most team votes) $8@7.25=$58
Ablett/Swan(quinella) $20@21 =$420
Ablett/Watson(quin) $25@7 =$175
Ablett/Beams(quin) $5@41 =$205
Watson/Swan $6@29 =$174
Watson/Beams $4@51 =$204
Shuey(win group vs Redden,Fyfe,Hill,Greene,Adams) $300@2.75 =$825
Redden(win same group as above, a cover bet) $125@4 =$500
Duffield(win group vs Birch,Scotland,Tayler,Malceski,Lake) $15@26 =$390
Sandilands(win group vs Cox,Nitnac,maric,Jacobs,Goldy) $10@7 =$70
Thomas D(win group vs Rioli,Bennell,Jetta,Milne,Betts) $10@11 =$110
Mundy(H2H vs Fyfe) $200@1.7 =$340
Rockliff(H2H vs Black) $250@1.67=$417.50
So thats the run down,, now its in the hands of the gambling Gods,, good luck to me..
Nice one UTM!
Pretty similar to mine except I'm predicting Thompson to finish substantially higher on around 25 votes.
Good luck with the bets anyway!
Quote from: Spinking on September 23, 2012, 10:29:30 PM
Nice one UTM!
Pretty similar to mine except I'm predicting Thompson to finish substantially higher on around 25 votes.
Good luck with the bets anyway!
cheers, What did you have Dangerfield on?
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 23, 2012, 11:07:05 PM
Quote from: Spinking on September 23, 2012, 10:29:30 PM
Nice one UTM!
Pretty similar to mine except I'm predicting Thompson to finish substantially higher on around 25 votes.
Good luck with the bets anyway!
cheers, What did you have Dangerfield on?
23. Hoping that it plays out like that too. Got a multi with Thomo to be highest scorer at the crows ;)
Quote from: Spinking on September 23, 2012, 11:17:04 PM
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 23, 2012, 11:07:05 PM
Quote from: Spinking on September 23, 2012, 10:29:30 PM
Nice one UTM!
Pretty similar to mine except I'm predicting Thompson to finish substantially higher on around 25 votes.
Good luck with the bets anyway!
cheers, What did you have Dangerfield on?
23. Hoping that it plays out like that too. Got a multi with Thomo to be highest scorer at the crows ;)
oh well good luck with that..
To be honest its fairly easy to be 5 votes off either way, so try to allow for that.
I dont think i gave Thompson to many BOGs, so that maybe the reason hes alittle low.
can i ask, what was your cotchin/deledio count? also Franklin and Sewell? if you have them
Hawks - I have Mitchell 22, Franklin 14, Sewell 11
Tiges - I have Cotchin 24, Deledio 19, Tuck 15
As you say though, could be off by a bit ;)
damn upthemaidens i thought i had heaps of bets on with my 17 bets lol mind you mine only equal $100 spent lol
That Grimes for most team votes bet looks reeeeally good!
Quote from: kilbluff1995 on September 23, 2012, 11:44:27 PM
damn upthemaidens i thought i had heaps of bets on with my 17 bets lol mind you mine only equal $100 spent lol
Haha funny thing is i dont have much cash atm, normally i would be betting 4k or so.
Quote from: stew42 on September 24, 2012, 01:40:40 AM
That Grimes for most team votes bet looks reeeeally good!
Yeah its going to be very low scoring across the board for Demons, So if Grimes can jag 5-6 votes that may be enough to atleast dead heat with Jones. Jones being the likely highest scorer.
The other bet i love the value off is the Duffield (to win group Birchell,Scotland,Tayler,Malceski,Lake) at $26 its got to be worth alittle splash. I dont see Birch or Scot(those 2 being the highest scorers) getting many more than 6-7 in maybe 3-4 games,, So Duffman just needs to jag a few(he does have a possible BOG)
Hmmm, true. I reckon you'll make a profit. Good luck man!
sent you a PM upthemaidens
Quote from: kilbluff1995 on September 24, 2012, 03:47:27 AM
sent you a PM upthemaidens
Yep i saw those bets,, umm you would hate Swan to come third :) . Im not sure about Cotchin, i would also look at some trifectas with beams(they should be quite big odds). The problem with trifectas(and to a lesser extent quinellas) is if there is a dead heat in any position, the payout gets cut up.
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 24, 2012, 06:27:55 AM
Quote from: kilbluff1995 on September 24, 2012, 03:47:27 AM
sent you a PM upthemaidens
Yep i saw those bets,, umm you would hate Swan to come third :) . Im not sure about Cotchin, i would also look at some trifectas with beams(they should be quite big odds). The problem with trifectas(and to a lesser extent quinellas) is if there is a dead heat in any position, the payout gets cut up.
lol yeah guess i have to hope if it's a 3rd spot tie for example i have both players in a trifecta so i get both bets to make up for it if that makes sense i dunno betting makes the night a lot more interesting lol otherwise it's kinda boring
Quote from: kilbluff1995 on September 24, 2012, 07:48:19 AM
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 24, 2012, 06:27:55 AM
Quote from: kilbluff1995 on September 24, 2012, 03:47:27 AM
sent you a PM upthemaidens
Yep i saw those bets,, umm you would hate Swan to come third :) . Im not sure about Cotchin, i would also look at some trifectas with beams(they should be quite big odds). The problem with trifectas(and to a lesser extent quinellas) is if there is a dead heat in any position, the payout gets cut up.
lol yeah guess i have to hope if it's a 3rd spot tie for example i have both players in a trifecta so i get both bets to make up for it if that makes sense i dunno betting makes the night a lot more interesting lol otherwise it's kinda boring
yep its pretty boring otherwise
Duffield in that group is a roughy...
Quote from: whatlez on September 24, 2012, 07:47:09 PM
Duffield in that group is a roughy...
yep , i doubt scotland or birch will get double figures. Duffman has a few games were he can poll, so at $26 i feel its worth a punt
Ouch!! took an absolute bloodbath,, totally mis-judged Fyfe's year. Stupidly had him in two of the bigger bets.
Well about the only thing i can be thankful for is i didnt have much cash to bet with.. oh well
None of my roughies won, infact only one of my bets came in geez..that blows
Bloody hell Boyd only got 10 votes,, man i was way off.. back to the drawing board
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 25, 2012, 12:08:02 AM
Ouch!! took an absolute bloodbath,, totally mis-judged Fyfe's year. Stupidly had him in two of the bigger bets.
Well about the only thing i can be thankful for is i didnt have much cash to bet with.. oh well
None of my roughies won, infact only one of my bets came in geez..that blows
Bloody hell Boyd only got 10 votes,, man i was way off.. back to the drawing board
Unlucky UTM but you had Watson 2nd on your count, yet he wasn't any of your safety bets!
Fyfe is definitely an early pick for next year. 14 votes in 9 games!
Bad luck mate.
I also underestimated Fyfe, I had the same bet on Mundy.
I was also let down by Deledio's lower showing, as I had him in a H2H with Hayes (who polled far far higher than anyone I know picked him to).
Just goes to prove how unpredictable this whole thing is!