Adam Goodes, A gun sure, a player to pick in your team from round 1, NO.
I have said this all along and I am sure Goodes is a late starter every season and makes a viable upgrade target but not a viable starter.
Now a lot of people have argued this is not the case but here I go making my point.
Last 3 years dt averages from Goodes.
2009 - first 8 (88) last 8 (109)
2010 - first 8 (90) last 8 (109)
2011 - first 8 (95) last 8 (115)
Had a pretty picture here from another site but felt it was a bit of a copy so just left the stats to make the point. :)
related article: http://dreamteamtalk.com/2012/01/21/deck-of-dream-team-2012-adam-goodes/
I have actually never had Goodes in my 4/5 years of DT
Though you have to consider him for an upgrade target as that very handy image showed
But starting him isnt that bad a 95 is still very good for his first 8
Quote from: Hawka on January 21, 2012, 06:35:53 PM
I have actually never had Goodes in my 4/5 years of DT
Though you have to consider him for an upgrade target as that very handy image showed
But starting him isnt that bad a 95 is still very good for his first 8
fair point, i guess its just the discount you get for waiting that matters but 95 over 8 weeks wouldnt have you feeling too bad about paying for him now would it
Quote from: Colliwobblers on January 21, 2012, 06:42:54 PM
Quote from: Hawka on January 21, 2012, 06:35:53 PM
I have actually never had Goodes in my 4/5 years of DT
Though you have to consider him for an upgrade target as that very handy image showed
But starting him isnt that bad a 95 is still very good for his first 8
fair point, i guess its just the discount you get for waiting that matters but 95 over 8 weeks wouldnt have you feeling too bad about paying for him now would it
Nah i would take 95 from goodes
But another point is what if he dosent drop that far ? do you wana take the risk of not getting him over waiting for later in the year?
I am looking to lock him in, swans have a pretty nice draw to start of with.
5 sub 80 scores in his 1st twelve games last year including a 47 against the Blues rnd 6 but two 115's a 120 , 129 and 109 helped to increase that avg to 91.7. The next ten games his avg was 108. Still finishes better than he starts as Colli said.
Statistics dont lie, good pick up! Remind me to look at this thread mid season ;)
Surely the 150+ he gets in round 1 plus another couple fo easy games first up offsets his usual trend though. If ever you are going to have Goodes from the start, it's this year. To be honest I'm probably not going to get him because Martin, Sidebottom Zaharakis etc. is too tempting but I am seriously considering him which I probably wouldn't have said at the end of last year.
Quote from: lolrocket on January 22, 2012, 12:00:15 AM
Surely the 150+ he gets in round 1 plus another couple fo easy games first up offsets his usual trend though. If ever you are going to have Goodes from the start, it's this year. To be honest I'm probably not going to get him because Martin, Sidebottom Zaharakis etc. is too tempting but I am seriously considering him which I probably wouldn't have said at the end of last year.
+1 for the GWS games 150 prediction I hadnt thought of that, still its one of the 8 games making up the first half...
I guess my point will really be made if he doesnt score a big one first up against the giants, maybe okeefe will take all the ball. :)
Had him all season last year so with the initial draw have to take the punt on him again. Great loophole captain and set and forget.
Quote from: Trajan on January 22, 2012, 12:51:17 AM
Had him all season last year so with the initial draw have to take the punt on him again. Great loophole captain and set and forget.
Good point Trajan, each to his own, watch for news on the loophole this season I have seen posts relating to it been closed for 2012
First time I have read that the loophole may be off this season Colliwobblers, thanks for the heads up. If ever Goodes is going to have a good start this is the year. In the lap of the footy gods but you have to take a few chances in the season or why bother?
Quote from: Hawka on January 21, 2012, 06:44:14 PM
Nah i would take 95 from goodes
But another point is what if he dosent drop that far ? do you wana take the risk of not getting him over waiting for later in the year?
Very good point.
The other point is that if he doesn't drop far, you save yourself a trade
Look at goodes first 8 games this year though
1. GWS
2. Freo
3. Port
4. North
5. Hawks
6. Crows
7. Richmond
8. Melbourne
Thats a nice run
GWS + port are the only ones I can see him really carving it at. I think you'll find a lot of those teams will have improved substantially.
Quote from: Zombie2.5 on January 22, 2012, 01:41:45 AM
Look at goodes first 8 games this year though
1. GWS
2. Freo
3. Port
4. North
5. Hawks
6. Crows
7. Richmond
8. Melbourne
Thats a nice run
Some info you may of not looked at yet regarding his scores against those sides in 2011.
1. GWS unknown
2. Freo 89
3. Port 115
4. North 76
5. Hawks 87
6. Crows 81
7. Richmond 60 & 78
8. Melbourne 76
OMG i had not looked at any of that, but you just backed up my story anyone who has goodes from the start is going to have no hair left by round 9 when he will come good and during hte byes colliwobblers will pick him up :)
those are damning stats Grazz well done and thanks it looks like goodes may continue the pattern in 2012
Quote from: Colliwobblers on January 22, 2012, 02:30:25 AM
OMG i had not looked at any of that, but you just backed up my story anyone who has goodes from the start is going to have no hair left by round 9 when he will come good and during hte byes colliwobblers will pick him up :)
those are damning stats Grazz well done and thanks it looks like goodes may continue the pattern in 2012
I thought it may make for some interesting reading mate. Dont get me wrong im a massive Goodes fan, he was in my side last year
and gave me a very handy 133 in the GF.
thats at the end of the season right ? ;D
sorry im been a dumb arsk too many largers :)
I always get Goodes later on in the season. It's just what you do.
Sure Goodes has been a bit weaker in his starts than his finishes in the past, but take a look at his draw:
Let’s compare 2012 to 2011:
Last year, in their first 8 games, Sydney played Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Pt Adelaide & Hawthorn. not exactly the easiest run of games, 5 teams in the Top 6.
Let’s look to 2012. This year, their first 8 games are: GWS, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Kangaroos, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond & Melbourne. Only 1 team from last year’s Top 8! Goodes is a Lock for Round 1
Quote from: JoeKing on January 22, 2012, 11:30:04 AM
Sure Goodes has been a bit weaker in his starts than his finishes in the past, but take a look at his draw:
Let’s compare 2012 to 2011:
Last year, in their first 8 games, Sydney played Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Pt Adelaide & Hawthorn. not exactly the easiest run of games, 5 teams in the Top 6.
Let’s look to 2012. This year, their first 8 games are: GWS, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Kangaroos, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond & Melbourne. Only 1 team from last year’s Top 8! Goodes is a Lock for Round 1
Look at the post at the top of the page mate.
I still think that if your mindset is one that you're definately going to get him, it's better saving the trade and starting with him. I struggle to see how his price will drop that much early, from his first 3 games he'll be averaging over 100 (assuming he ONLY scores 110 v GWS) but point noted about his record v opponents in the first 8 games last year - I just don't see this being repeated: Richmond 60 & 78, Melbourne 76. He's still as good a bet as any and is in my side currently.
Quote from: Andrew on January 22, 2012, 03:51:25 PM
I still think that if your mindset is one that you're definately going to get him, it's better saving the trade and starting with him. I struggle to see how his price will drop that much early, from his first 3 games he'll be averaging over 100 (assuming he ONLY scores 110 v GWS) but point noted about his record v opponents in the first 8 games last year - I just don't see this being repeated: Richmond 60 & 78, Melbourne 76. He's still as good a bet as any and is in my side currently.
I understand your point on costing a trade and agree, for me he will probably be an upgrade target, everyone is an option for upgrades at this point, and i'll hopefully be off loading a rookie to get him when the time comes. I was suprised to by his scores in those games i posted and like you think he should do better than that but it's how ive handled Goodes most seasons so i'll follow the plan as usual but understand its different strokes for different folks.
I started with him last season and it was a mid-season dip which was the only disappointment - not so much early season slowness. I just think it has become a trend that everyone has picked up on - not saying yourself who obviously has done research - but take this DTtalk graphic on Goodes for instance:
(http://dreamteamtalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/goodes.jpg) (http://dreamteamtalk.com/2012/01/21/deck-of-dream-team-2012-adam-goodes/)
The profile (http://dreamteamtalk.com/2012/01/21/deck-of-dream-team-2012-adam-goodes/) goes on to make the point that this shows he starts slow and thus is a better upgrade target, and a flood of comments come in 85-90% agreeing with the strategy. But look at the scores for his first 8 games in the past 3 seasons: 88, 90, 95.
They're not actually poor scores at all..? For a season long keeper if you can guarantee that kind of scoring early (he'll do at least 88 this time around?) then he's worth taking the season-long ride on for mine, compared to trying to find a good situation to bring him in and burning a precious trade.
He's in for now but there's a possibility that Goodes or Robinson will leave my forward line if I need cash elsewhere. But taking on a mid-priced prospect like J-Brown is not appealing when I've already got N.Riewoldt & Christensen locked in.
Hard to argue with you there on all the points you made, i too have started seasons with him. I understand your point on costing you a trade to get him in but at the same time you will be burning a trade to fit some other Gun into your forward line at some point unless your starting with 7 Guns in your forward which obviously you wont be so its all relative really, i burn 1 to get Goodes
a nd you burn 1 to get Buddy for example. Six of one half a dozen of another dont you think.
yeah look you could flip a coin on him and dont think it matters much ONLY becasue as the season goes on the magic number draws everyones price down which offsets the fact that with goodes...
1. you pay for his last years average 99
2. you only get an average of say 90 for the first 8 games = his price drops
3. you dont waste a trade because you are upgrading rooks to premiums thats what you do. but you upgrade to him at a price for a 90 everage, then for the rest of the year he averages you 110.
if you had him all along you would have paid more for him but had a solid enough (90 say) output from him you keep him and get the good half out of him as well.
It doesnt make a lot of difference the point is why not pick a player to start the season that averages more consistantly in the first half and have goodes as a rookie upgrade target mid season?
makes sense, NOT SUGGESTING to sideways trade to him upgrade trade to him thats not a wasted trade.
Why are people so against starting with Goodes? Although he is particularly stronger come second half of te season. I feel the teams he verses early just offer massive scoring potential and he could be an absolute gem given that noone else wants him. Peoples thoughts?
Quote from: Binga on January 31, 2012, 07:42:50 PM
Why are people so against starting with Goodes? Although he is particularly stronger come second half of te season. I feel the teams he verses early just offer massive scoring potential and he could be an absolute gem given that noone else wants him. Peoples thoughts?
Im not against starting Gooders but the people who are have put me off ;D
Shhhhh.... :P
Im on him atm, think the swans are improving
Im starting with Goodes as a unique and Sydneys 1st half draw is too good to pass up
Usually you can pick up Goodes cheaper mid way through the season after his slow starts.
But I don't see why you can't have a dual brownlow medalist from the get go. ;)
Quote from: Windigo on January 31, 2012, 08:22:58 PM
Usually you can pick up Goodes cheaper mid way through the season after his slow starts.
This is true, although last year was an anomaly and he was quite consistent. I'm tempted to have him as captain vs GWS.
Quote from: CuStArDaRm on January 31, 2012, 08:06:50 PM
Shhhhh.... :P
Im on him atm, think the swans are improving
+1...couldn't agree with you more! ;) I also can't believe how some people have this general 'rule' about him being a slow starter - because that's soooo going to be the rule all the time isn't it!!! ::)
Hes not a Victorian
starts slow basicly every year and then comes home like a steam train
People usually don't buy him straight away as he makes the "perfect upgrade" player towards the end of the season
Well I've got him round one, dual brownlow dpp who verses crappy teams. He's practically my captain for the first 10 rounds.
Happy for everyone to wait to upgrade and I'll enjoy him from round 1 !
For me I like to start with players who I feel can score pretty much anywhere on the ground in any role, IE. Goodes and Goddard.
I guess his draw is a reason to because I basically always get him so this year Ill take a pretty much risk free punt and hope he can smash some weak sides for me.
1 hour and 42 minutes to go!!!!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT!!
The snazzy graphic should explain everything:
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2012/01/21/deck-of-dream-team-2012-adam-goodes/
actually Im gonna start him in SC probably not DT though
Quote from: Binga on January 31, 2012, 07:42:50 PM
Why are people so against starting with Goodes? Although he is particularly stronger come second half of te season. I feel the teams he verses early just offer massive scoring potential and he could be an absolute gem given that noone else wants him. Peoples thoughts?
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2012/01/21/deck-of-dream-team-2012-adam-goodes/
this sums it up better than I can but let's just say if you have to upgrade to someone, which you do, it may as well be Goodes according to history that would be the smartest choice.
Certainly starting with him
I'm definitely starting with him! I hope people don't start with him so he's a lil different!!
Quote from: Colliwobblers on February 01, 2012, 12:21:11 AM
Quote from: Binga on January 31, 2012, 07:42:50 PM
Why are people so against starting with Goodes? Although he is particularly stronger come second half of te season. I feel the teams he verses early just offer massive scoring potential and he could be an absolute gem given that noone else wants him. Peoples thoughts?
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2012/01/21/deck-of-dream-team-2012-adam-goodes/
this sums it up better than I can but let's just say if you have to upgrade to someone, which you do, it may as well be Goodes according to history that would be the smartest choice.
I still don't think it adds up - with that logic you'd never start with Swan either because he'd be the "smartest" upgrade choice later in the season. But what about the points you miss out on from that upgrade target, and who else you going to pick? And lets look at that graphic again, showing his first 8 games from 2009, 2010 and 2011:
(http://dreamteamtalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/goodes.jpg)
He averaged 88, 90 and 95... good scoring and improving? If he does better than that in the last 8 games of a season, that just highlights he's REALLY worth starting with. Sydney's good early fixturing, in particular the GWS round 1 clash, shows that he'll at least match that 95 average from the first 8 games in 2012 with two games v GWS to boot. If he's a good upgrade target, he's a good target full stop. I'm starting with Goodes lock & load, just as I did last season.
Great graphic. If you liked Goodes, I wouldn't be afraid t start him, not like there are lots of options in the forward line