I know its early but i was wondering if anybody was interested in me doing a weekly brownlow predictions using a scoring system that i have formed over a couple of years to predict who will win the charlie. let me know yay or nay and i will post who i think would have the votes so far.
Yay
Yay
MTTY is also doing his own fanfooty Brownlow which should be interesting. Interesting to see who gets closer
ok cool, feel free to critiscize if anyone feels i got it wrong. i might add its by no means perfect last year i had Swan winning Ablett runner up and Judd 3rd
Edit: actually looking back it was Ablett winner, Swan 2nd Judd 3rd
Go for it Usman
Are you kidding, of course do it. These guys in 'Front Bar' (myself included) want something...ANYTHING to do before the weekend footy starts ha. Jump on board my comp to.
Ok so here it is,if you disagree give us a shout and ill explain why i think they will get the votes.
[b]Round 1[/b]
Carl v Rich
3 M.Murphy
2 C.Judd
1 J.Reiwoldt
Honourable mentions- Warnock, Robinson, Gibbs bit the bullet with Roo any of these players could get votes.
Geel v StK
3 J.Bartel
2 L.Hayes
1 J.Kelly
Honourable mentions- Enright, Dal Santo, Montagna another close game made it hard to give votes.
Coll v Port
3 D. Swan
2 S.Pendlebury
1 C.Dawes
Honourable mentions- Johnson i guess M.Thomas but i think the pies won by too much for him to get a vote.
Adel v Haw
3 B. Rielly
2 S. Mitchell
1 P. Dangerfield
Honourable mentions- McKernan
Bris v Fre
3 A. Sandilands
2 N. Fyfe
1 S. Black
Honourable mentions- Pavlich
Ess v WB
3 J.Watson
2 H.Hocking
1 D.Hille
Honourable mentions- Stanton, Ryder
Melb v Syd
3 B.Moloney
2 R. O'Keefe
1 J.Trengove
WCE v Kang
3 D. Cox
2 M.Priddis
1 A.Swallow
There is Rd 1 go nuts
Round 2
StK v Rich
3 B. Deledio
2 S. Milne
1 D. Armitage
Honourable mentions- the list could go on forever with this one so Pass
Kang v Coll
3 S. Pendlebury
2 D. Swan
1 D. Beams
Honourable mentions- Dawes, Cloke. Oh and Boomer Harvey says Lachie Hansen and Sam Wright could be a chance for votes too.
Port v WCE
3 A. Embley
2 L. Shuey
1 D. Cox
Fre v Geel
3 C. Ling
2 M. Pavlich
1 C. Enright
Honorable mentions- found this one particularly hard, a number of players have a chance
GC v Carl
3 C. Judd
2 M. Murphy
1 B. Gibbs
Honorable mentions- Walker, Thornton, Garlett
WB v Bris
3 R. Griffen
2 M. Boyd
1 A. Cooney
Honourable mentions- Another one of those games it could go anywhere
Syd v Ess
3 J. Bolton
2 A. Goodes
1 R. OKeefe
Honourable mentions- None really close to these 3. Strange because it was a close game
Haw v Melb
3 M. Suckling
2 C. Rioli
1 S. Burgoyne
Honourable mentions- Mitchell, Franklin if he is extremely lucky.
Leaderboard
S. Pendlebury 5
M. Murphy 5
D. Swan 5
C. Judd 5
D. Cox 4
R. O'Keefe 4
Very cool Usman 8)
Could you put the updated leader board each round on the opening post?
I pretty much agree with most of your predicted points from the games I've seen this season.
Will do Rooster
Nice job Usman!
Nice read Usman i think one thing for sure Judd will not poll in rd 1.
RD1 Car v Rich
Murphy
Riewoldt
Gibbs
QuoteNice read Usman i think one thing for sure Judd will not poll in rd 1.
RD1 Car v Rich
Murphy
Riewoldt
Gibbs
This is why i thought Judd would poll over Gibbs-
Possessions Goals Behinds cont' marks tackles clearences cont' pos inside 50's hit outs Points (my scoring system)
Gibbs 29 1 0 0 6 4 5 9 0 124
Judd 25 1 1 0 8 10 14 5 0 167
Loving those stats, yes indeed! Good job
Judd definitely polls in Rd 1, the struggle in the 4th qtr was even until he broke the lines and kicked that goal...
that was the definitive moment of the game as small as it seemed at the time it broke a massive drought and got us rolling...
nice Usman
Great job Usman! Also you have your own scoring system?? :o
Nice way to keep yourself occupied Usman 8).
I would love to see Pendles and Murphy outpoll Swan and Judd :P.
I remember in 2003 I made a system for the Brownlow, and it told me it would be a threeway tie between Buckley, Ricciuto and Voss on 22 votes. What actually happened? A three way tie between Buckley, Ricciuto and Goodes on 22 votes! I was so epically pleased with how close it was. I was under 18 at the time though, so I didn't profit from it.
... but since then my system hasn't even been close lol, and I stopped trying after a few more years of failure!
Haha wow ossie very impressive! Imagine if you had been old enough to bet and you chucked some money on it being a 3 way tie! :o
Quote from: diddley on April 06, 2011, 01:34:03 AM
put all your money on fev. he will have a late surge for the brownlow.
I was thinking the same thing :P
Swan has 6 points after 2
Pendlebury has 4 points after 2
Umpies like Pendles over Swan, I'd almost reverse that.
Benny J could steal a 3 also in round 1.
QuoteSwan has 6 points after 2
Pendlebury has 4 points after 2
Very possible Swan 3 votes without a doubt in rd 1 but pendles rnd 2 just cause there stats were almost identicle but pendlbury is more classy and just attracts ther umps more i reckon plus he scored slightly more in my system ;) which probably accounts for nothing.
Did anyone win money on the most team votes muliti's last year?
i wish i put money on could have cashed in. My scoring system predicted
Adelaide: Thompson 15 Actual: Thompson 15
Brisbane: Brown 16 Actual: Brown 12
Carlton: Judd 27 Actual: Judd 30
Collingwood: Swan 28 Actual: Swan 24
Essendon: Watson 16 Actual: Watson 16
Fremantle: Sandilands 20 Actual: Sandilands 20
Geelong: Ablett 29 Actual: Ablett 26
Hawthorn: Hodge 26 Actual: Hodge 16 :o>
Melbourne: Sylvia 13 Actual: Sylvia 10 Davey 10
Kangaroos: Swallow 16 Actual: Harvey 13
Port: Boak 16 Actual: Boak 16
Richmond: Tuck 13 :o Actual: Deledio 7 Riewoldt 7
Saint Kilda: Montagna 20 Actual: Hayes 19
Sydney: Goodes 13 Actual: Goodes 13
WB: Boyd 25 Actual: Boyd 20
WCE: Priddis 10 Actual: Priddis 13
So i was fairly close i guess you could say. Sort of ::) A multi with all the teams i got right would have been good in hindsight lol
Quote from: Usman on April 06, 2011, 06:37:29 PM
Did anyone win money on the most team votes muliti's last year?
i wish i put money on could have cashed in. My scoring system predicted
Adelaide: Thompson 15 Actual: Thompson 15
Brisbane: Brown 16 Actual: Brown 12
Carlton: Judd 27 Actual: Judd 30
Collingwood: Swan 28 Actual: Swan 24
Essendon: Watson 16 Actual: Watson 16
Fremantle: Sandilands 20 Actual: Sandilands 20
Geelong: Ablett 29 Actual: Ablett 26
Hawthorn: Hodge 26 Actual: Hodge 16 :o>
Melbourne: Sylvia 13 Actual: Sylvia 10 Davey 10
Kangaroos: Swallow 16 Actual: Harvey 13
Port: Boak 16 Actual: Boak 16
Richmond: Tuck 13 :o Actual: Deledio 7 Riewoldt 7
Saint Kilda: Montagna 20 Actual: Hayes 19
Sydney: Goodes 13 Actual: Goodes 13
WB: Boyd 25 Actual: Boyd 20
WCE: Priddis 10 Actual: Priddis 13
So i was fairly close i guess you could say. Sort of ::) A multi with all the teams i got right would have been good in hindsight lol
That's a fair effort! I'll be keeping a very close eye on this thread. Nice work mate
Nice Usman! Much impressed, should apply to Champion Data
Quote from: Usman on April 05, 2011, 11:20:39 PM
QuoteNice read Usman i think one thing for sure Judd will not poll in rd 1.
RD1 Car v Rich
Murphy
Riewoldt
Gibbs
This is why i thought Judd would poll over Gibbs-
Possessions Goals Behinds cont' marks tackles clearences cont' pos inside 50's hit outs Points (my scoring system)
Gibbs 29 1 0 0 6 4 5 9 0 124
Judd 25 1 1 0 8 10 14 5 0 167
you havent accounted ofr the judd factor (+20 points), if an ump cant pick between 2 players and one of them is judd, he always gets the nod.
Quote from: Holzman on April 06, 2011, 08:43:48 PM
Quote from: Usman on April 05, 2011, 11:20:39 PM
QuoteNice read Usman i think one thing for sure Judd will not poll in rd 1.
RD1 Car v Rich
Murphy
Riewoldt
Gibbs
This is why i thought Judd would poll over Gibbs-
Possessions Goals Behinds cont' marks tackles clearences cont' pos inside 50's hit outs Points (my scoring system)
Gibbs 29 1 0 0 6 4 5 9 0 124
Judd 25 1 1 0 8 10 14 5 0 167
you havent accounted ofr the judd factor (+20 points), if an ump cant pick between 2 players and one of them is judd, he always gets the nod.
better still your forgetting the judd impact, every possession is gold, in terms of influence with disposal no afl player comes close
Quote from: Usman on April 06, 2011, 06:37:29 PM
Did anyone win money on the most team votes muliti's last year?
i wish i put money on could have cashed in. My scoring system predicted
Adelaide: Thompson 15 Actual: Thompson 15
Brisbane: Brown 16 Actual: Brown 12
Carlton: Judd 27 Actual: Judd 30
Collingwood: Swan 28 Actual: Swan 24
Essendon: Watson 16 Actual: Watson 16
Fremantle: Sandilands 20 Actual: Sandilands 20
Geelong: Ablett 29 Actual: Ablett 26
Hawthorn: Hodge 26 Actual: Hodge 16 :o>
Melbourne: Sylvia 13 Actual: Sylvia 10 Davey 10
Kangaroos: Swallow 16 Actual: Harvey 13
Port: Boak 16 Actual: Boak 16
Richmond: Tuck 13 :o Actual: Deledio 7 Riewoldt 7
Saint Kilda: Montagna 20 Actual: Hayes 19
Sydney: Goodes 13 Actual: Goodes 13
WB: Boyd 25 Actual: Boyd 20
WCE: Priddis 10 Actual: Priddis 13
So i was fairly close i guess you could say. Sort of ::) A multi with all the teams i got right would have been good in hindsight lol
One Multi i put on was 2552/1, got halved because Sylvia drew with Davey.
BL best way to make money there is in betting imo... as your betting on something thats already happened. I outlayed $300 and got back 8.7k. Then backed Hayes and Pendles for the Norm Smith.
Great idea for thread, i will follow with interest
Good Job mate. Reilly doesnt get 3 for round one, didnt poll a single coaches vote or rate a mention in any reports. I do a similar thing and made a couple hundred on judd last year. Ill be interested to see how it goes comparatively. Keep it up.
QuoteGood Job mate. Reilly doesnt get 3 for round one, didnt poll a single coaches vote or rate a mention in any reports. I do a similar thing and made a couple hundred on judd last year. Ill be interested to see how it goes comparatively. Keep it up
Listened to most of the game on the radio and must admit i wouldnt have given him any votes but the 3 needed to go to a Crow because they won and Danger was too quiet in the first 3 quarters. none else was above 120 in my scoring system and burgouyne and rioli were 122 and 125 respectively but couldnt give them votes on the basis that adelaide won and danger was great in the 4th.
The scores from my system were:
Rielly
152 26 possesions, 17 contested, 8 clearences, 4 tackles, 5 inside 50's, 1 contested mark
Mitchell
145 38 possesions, 12 contested, 5 clearences, 5 tackles, 5 inside 50's
Dangerfield
122 17 possesions, 8 contested, 3 clearences, 3 tackles, 6 inside 50's, 3 goals
QuoteOne Multi i put on was 2552/1, got halved because Sylvia drew with Davey.
BL best way to make money there is in betting imo... as your betting on something thats already happened. I outlayed $300 and got back 8.7k. Then backed Hayes and Pendles for the Norm Smith.
oh ye just a lazy 8.7K no big deal ::) :o ;D
8.7k :o Nice effort!
Like I'll ever see that much many! Great return there Hippo!
Too bad I can't bet :(. I miss out by a few weeks :P.
Usman
rnd 1 eagles north game
embley was the difference in the game, should poll votes maybe ahead of priddis, agree with swallow getting one, cox should get 3, but he and pederson played off each other for cheap possies and cox went down with cramp in last quarter with no real impact on game apart from a goal in last term. Woldn't surprise if embley even got the 3, cox 2, swallow 1.
QuoteUsman
rnd 1 eagles north game
embley was the difference in the game, should poll votes maybe ahead of priddis, agree with swallow getting one, cox should get 3, but he and pederson played off each other for cheap possies and cox went down with cramp in last quarter with no real impact on game apart from a goal in last term. Woldn't surprise if embley even got the 3, cox 2, swallow 1.
mmm you make a very good point, wouldnt be surprised if Embley polls 3 i didnt watch the game what role did he play? it would seem he picked up alot of loose ball affecting his score through my system, which tends to favour midfielders that get there hands dirty with contested possies and clearences. Also Cox doesnt tend to poll very well.
i Had:
Cox 177
Priddis 151
Swallow 148
Embley 119
Quote from: Usman on April 07, 2011, 10:45:22 PM
QuoteUsman
rnd 1 eagles north game
embley was the difference in the game, should poll votes maybe ahead of priddis, agree with swallow getting one, cox should get 3, but he and pederson played off each other for cheap possies and cox went down with cramp in last quarter with no real impact on game apart from a goal in last term. Woldn't surprise if embley even got the 3, cox 2, swallow 1.
mmm you make a very good point, wouldnt be surprised if Embley polls 3 i didnt watch the game what role did he play? it would seem he picked up alot of loose ball affecting his score through my system, which tends to favour midfielders that get there hands dirty with contested possies and clearences. Also Cox doesnt tend to poll very well.
i Had:
Cox 177
Priddis 151
Swallow 148
Embley 119
he played mainly on wing, floated through midfield and forward, he had 28 possies including 11 cont only 3 players had more contested in match, it was mainly his use of the pill also, setup some goals at crucial stages including handballing to cox in the goalsqaure in last qrt when running into open goal(if take that goal off cox and back to embley how it affect your scoring)
D K H G B SC CM UM T CL C FF FA CP UP I50 A EFF
A.Embley 28 14 14 1 0 131 0 6 5 3 1 0 0 11 18 3 2 79%
Quotehe played mainly on wing, floated through midfield and forward, he had 28 possies including 11 cont only 3 players had more contested in match,
Cox (15) Priddis (17) and Swallow (14) had more contested posessions.
Quote(if take that goal off cox and back to embley how it affect your scoring)
Goals are woth 10 points in my system so cox would end up on 167 and embley 129. i wont change my votes for this game but i can definately see why embley could poll or even poll 3. I just want to stay consistent with my system to see how accurate it is. Thanks heeaps for the advice though, really good info.
@Monty
@Prospector
@Ossie
@HHPLZ
I wish to nominate Usman to receive a full coaches badge as a default against the amount of posts policies. This thread is quality and needs to be recognised. It is obvious Usman is sharing all the hard and time consuming efforts with us The Fanfooty community.
Could one of the above assist with putting forward this nomination ?
KORZA
i second that.
I reckon we get a petition going that if it gets 200 signatures that he becomes a coach.
Quote from: korza on April 08, 2011, 06:42:43 PM
@Monty
@Prospector
@Ossie
@HHPLZ
I wish to nominate Usman to receive a full coaches badge as a default against the amount of posts policies. This thread is quality and needs to be recognised. It is obvious Usman is sharing all the hard and time consuming efforts with us The Fanfooty community.
Could one of the above assist with putting forward this nomination ?
KORZA
I honestly don't have much power ;). He's putting in alot of effort and is recognised by the majority of us! But coaches have to get the 1000 posts to get up the rankings (don't think m0nty can do anything about that). Don't need to be a coach to earn our respect :).
can we just call him an honorary coach?
Usman will get here eventually :) Though very quality stuff
Thanks guys. Ill get there the right way though. ;D
i have to be honest last nights game is a nightmare to give the votes out. and my scoring system only makes it worse:
Swan 169 JUNKTIME, will not get 3
Cloke 141
Judd 126
Dawes 116
Pendlebury 114
Blair 113
and Shaw and Johnson not even close 78 and 66 because they played such outside roles.
Blair gets votes, probably 2-3?
Statistcally Swan should get 3 let alone just polling, but he has to be a chance to poll, and basically everyone else has a chance too. Doing my head in. any suggestions? i have never not given the 3 to someone who scored the most and played in te winning team but Swan really doesnt deserve it.
3 to Blair/Shaw
2 to Dawes/Cloke.
1 to Judd.
3 Blair
2 Judd
1 Cloke
3. Blair
2. Shaw
1. Judd
Swan had 14 touches or thereabouts in the last term, as u said junk time. Shouldn't get a vote but it wouldn't surprise if he did.
Quote from: soutter on April 09, 2011, 01:55:06 PM
3. Blair
2. Shaw
1. Judd
Swan had 14 touches or thereabouts in the last term, as u said junk time. Shouldn't get a vote but it wouldn't surprise if he did.
Hey Soutter your DP makes more sense this week! :P
Judd shouldn't get any votes :(
Sometimes the umpires get it wrong Usman. Swan was prolific in the last quarter, the quarter most fresh in the umpires mind.... I agree he shouldn't, but....
3. H Shaw
2. J Blair
1. T Cloke
Thanks heaps guys. i think what im going to do for this game is add all your votes up and then give the 3 2 1 to who ever got the most. more suggestions would help ill count the first ten suggestions up.
love the thread usman, keep up the good work
blair 3
shaw 2
judd 1
3- Shaw
2- Blair
1- Swan/Judd
GC V WB
3- Boyd
2- Cross
1- Ablett
ADE V FRE
3- S. Thompson
2- Fyfe
1- Hill
My two cents. Few non winning club pollers I know, but they both played crackers of a game.
ok im impatient so ill do the first 2 games BIG suprises in the WB v GC game but im happy to go with it. form now on i might put there score next to there name aswell just so you can get an idea what its like and when someone has really dominated. I might add it favours midfielders (off course) that get clearences and hard ball,(i based this off who always seems to poll well the - Judds, Goodes, Blacks, Hayes'and Abletts) it really offers nothing to the running outside defenders thats why there scores will always be so low, but i knew shaw had played a too good of a game not to get votes. so here we go.
Round 3
Coll v Carl
3 J. Blair 113
2 H. Shaw 78
1 C. Judd 126 (Puts Judd in front :o)
Honourable mentions - Swan, Cloke, Dawes.
WB v GC look how close the top 3 are in terms of points, ridiculous.
3 S. Higgins 158
2 G. Ablett 157(After watching today i have no doubt he is the best player in the AFL)
1 R. Griffen 156
VERY VERY unlucky- Cross and Boyd
Adel v Fre
3 N. Fyfe 161
2 S.Thompson 207 (EDIT: 8th highest score ever recorded under my system, just for the record the best ever is J.Roo 247 last year v WCE. Followed by lecras who got 239 for his 12 goal performance. Ablett holds 4 of the 6 other scores bigger than Thompsons 207. Bolton scored 214 in rd 2.)
1 M. Pavlich 123
Honourable mentions- Mundy, Hill
Rich v Haw
3 L. Franklin 151
2 J. Lewis 123
1 S. Burgoyne 117
Honourable mentions- Hodge, Savage
WCE v Syd
3 A. Goodes 158
2 J. Bolton 151
1 D. Cox 146
Honourable mentions- Priddis, Jack, Kennedy
Melb v BL
3 M.Jamar 198
2 B. Moloney 169
1 L. Power 133
Honourable mentions-Jurrah, Gysberts, Rockliff, Adcock
Geel v Port
3 J. Bartel 199
2. J. Selwood 159
1 J. Kelly 155
Honourable mentions- Ling, Ottens, Corey
StK v Ess
3 J. Watson 191
2 T. Bellchambers 135
1 S. Crameri 125
Honourable mentions- Hocking, Lonergan
Quote from: ossie85 on April 09, 2011, 02:11:15 PM
Judd shouldn't get any votes :(
I disagree. Deserves at least the one as he was very consistent throughout the entire game even though they lost. Blair I believe should get votes as well but next player is a toss up (probably Cloke or Shaw for me).
Wow Scotty Thompson! High scoring game :o
How can people say Blair was better than Shaw? Shaw had 6 opponents, who gathered a combined total of 8 possessions when they were playing on him. Shaw had 27. Stats don't mean much, but that is an accurate reflection of how dominant he was. Blair just finished the good work the others had done.
Umpires notice goals.
Bored as thought id chuck my scoring system up. I feel like a White Goodman everytime i call it 'my scoring system' so this should clear everything up and see how i award points.
Possessions - 3 points
Goals - 10 points
Behinds - 3 points
Contested Marks - 8 points
Tackles - 2 points
Clearences - 5 points
Contested Possessions - 2 points
Inside 50's - 2 points
Hit Outs - 1 point
Very simple. Thoughts?
Why is a contested posse worth less than a uncontested one?
It's not, I don't think bomberboy. I think you get 3 points for every possesion, plus an additional 2 if the possesion is contested.
It's bb oss :).
Oh ok it was a bit odd to me.
QuoteIt's not, I don't think bomberboy. I think you get 3 points for every possesion, plus an additional 2 if the possesion is contested.
Spot on
It's a flawed system because it doesn't take the quality of the possessions into account. A Chris Masten handball never has the same effect as a 20m Joel Selwood handball. Stats only count for so much, and a players influence over a game cannot ever be properly reflected by statistics. There is some things that don't score, yet have a huge bearing on outcomes.
Thats why he also takes the actual performance into consideration. I would say a bit like sc he would give momentum points. But im not sure.
QuoteIt's a flawed system because it doesn't take the quality of the possessions into account. A Chris Masten handball never has the same effect as a 20m Joel Selwood handball. Stats only count for so much, and a players influence over a game cannot ever be properly reflected by statistics. There is some things that don't score, yet have a huge bearing on outcomes.
Thats a flawed statement, is every one of Selwoods handballs 20m? is everyone of Mastens handballs not effective? This is a points system entirely based on what would catch the eye of the umpire's. I also try and watch as much footy as i can cause i know its not perfect and it can certainly not fully represent a players performance. The umpires dont get to look at stats after the game and im not sure if they would have the mental capacity to remember if someone has hit the target 20% more than someone else. That may only be 3-4 possesions difference in effectiveness. Also there is effectiveness and effectiveness, you can miss a target and the possesion is considered ineffective or you can have a clanger possession which is also considered ineffective but to a much higher degree to the point where its actually helping the opposition. So someone could have 30 touches at 80% efficiency (24 effective possessions) but that 20% could all be clangers (6 clangers) or you could have someone with 60% efficiecny (18 effective possesions) with no clangers. who has been more effective? thats why i leave efficiency and clangers out of it, too complicated and i might aswell just use the SC scores rather than form my own opinion. Also efficiency can be decieving statistic in other ways my studies have shown a strong correlation between higher contested possessions rates = lower efficency rates, its logic really the more pressure a player is under the less likely they are to execute. meaning someone can run around all day free with high efficiency beacause he is under no presssure, or you can have a player doing all the grunt work and getting the hardball while disposing of it with a lower effiicency. What will the umpires notice more?
Round 4
Rich v Coll
3 D.Swan 214 (equal highest for the year with Jude Bolton Rd 2) (equal 7th highest socre ever)
2 D. Thomas 145
1 S. Pendlebury 144
Honourable mentions- Martin, Cotchin, Deledio, Sidebottom
Haw v WCE
3 L. Franklin 178
2 S. Mitchell 160
1 M. Priddis 155
Honourable mentions- Embley, Darling, Birchill
Carl v Ess
3 J. Watson 155
2 M. Murphy 126
1 C. Judd 115
Honourable mentions- endless list
Geel v Syd
3 P. Chapman 143
2 J. Kennedy 184
1 D. Wojcinski 143
Honourbale mentions- another endless list
Port v Adel
3 J. Westoff 162
2 D. Brogan 155
1 S. Thompson 138
Honourable mentions- Chaplin, Rodan, Van Berlo
GC v Melb
3 B. Moloney 173
2 C. Sylvia 165
1 J. Trengove 138
Honourable mentions- Jamar, Davey
Fre v Kang
3 M. Pavlich 196
2 N. Fyfe 170 very possible swap with swallow for 2 and 1 votes
1 A. Swallow 201
Honourable mentions- Mundy, Ballantyne
And I had Swan captain ;D
It's a good feeling :)
Love your work Usman. Ever thought of adding X factor points in somehow?
Would be quite hard to judge as it can be a bit of a personal opinion but would help dampen the strictly statistical effect of data. Afterall the Brownlow is decided on the umps personal opinions...
Not sure how it would work maybe 10 or so points added for x factor. What you think?
i have finally completed and updated round 4 above the leader board is on the original post
Hey usman where can I see a leaderboard?
The orignal post has an ongoing leaderboard, im no good on computers so i dont know how to make the leaderboard sticky so that its on the top of every page under the topic.
Neither would I. Umpires don't care about juk time they will notice you more if you get 25 of your 30 touches in the second half than the other way around.
What do you think of A.Swallow so far Usman?
A.Swallow is one of my absolute favourites wait 5 mins ill post what i have done for rd 5 i would love your help for the Richmond v Kangas game cant decide and i dont want to be bias towards richmond and i know you certainly wont be :P after rd 4 i have him on 2 votes but most likely 4 after rd 5 which is exceptional considering they have not one a game and have had a bye.
Round 5
BL v StK
3 L. Montagna 168
2 J. Redden 155
1 A. Schnieder 120
honourable mentions- Adcock, Fisher, Rockliff
Port v GC
3 M. Rischitelli 189
2 J. Brennan 154
1 D. Swallow 120
Honourable mentions- Hartlett, Ablett, Matera
Carl v Adel
3 C. Judd 166 (Thought murphy would def get the 3 but Judd always polls well and he had more points so i just gave him the 3)
2 M. Murphy 141
1 G. Johncock
Kang v Rich
3 D. Martin 169
2 A. Swallow 183
1 D. Petrie 182
Honourable mentions- Cotchin 153 , Riewoldt 167
NEED HELP WITH THIS GAME PLEASE!!!!!!!! left it as is Roo will probs get a vote but he shouldnt above either swallow or petrie so i will leave it
Ess v Coll
3 S. Pendlebury 190
2 L. Davis 123
1 J. Watson 142 Very Iffy on Jobe here
Honourbale mentions- Shaw, Cloke, Swan, Crameri
Fre v WB
3 M. Boyd 226 is this the best individual performance in a losing team?
2 D. Mundy 165
1 A. Sandilands 166
Honourable mentions- Pavlich, Fyfe
Haw v Geel
3 J. Selwood 162
2 P. Chapman 146
1 B. Sewell 155
Honourbale mentions- Bartel
I reckon matera will get a vote.
Quote from: bomberboy0618 on April 28, 2011, 06:48:42 AM
I reckon matera will get a vote.
Mats ahead of Swallow. Mats was much better for the whole game and Swallow really only played the last quarter.
thats the thing though it was a hell of a qtr might stick in the umps minds, i was split between Matera 109 Ablett 110 and Swallow 120 could be any of the 3 IMO just went with who scored the most.
But Ablett did the same as Swallow though :-\. Their last quarter was AWESOME but Mats would be much more deserving of the vote but as you said Usman, may not get it ahead of the midfielders ::).
mmm decisions, decisions. Any ideas on the Kang v Rich game are my votes accurate?
I didn't watch the game so can't really help you there Ussie :(.
Fairly accurate I think.
3 for Martin is likely, mainly because he played a crucial part in winning the game, hence the slightly lower score but that should be ignored for this exception.
2 for Swallow or Petrie, not sure about the order on this one. Swallow tried his guts out all game and was playing very well in the contested situations. Petrie killed it in the first half, but IMO didn't deliver enough towards the end.
I'm not blaming him, just saying that after his first half it tapered off a bit.
JRoo played well, perhaps he may pick up 1 vote here. Did well towards the end..
Quote from: roo boys! on April 28, 2011, 11:44:44 PM
Fairly accurate I think.
3 for Martin is likely, mainly because he played a crucial part in winning the game, hence the slightly lower score but that should be ignored for this exception.
2 for Swallow or Petrie, not sure about the order on this one. Swallow tried his guts out all game and was playing very well in the contested situations. Petrie killed it in the first half, but IMO didn't deliver enough towards the end.
I'm not blaming him, just saying that after his first half it tapered off a bit.
JRoo played well, perhaps he may pick up 1 vote here. Did well towards the end..
Agree for the most of it... 3- Dusty Martin, 2- Petrie, 1-Jroo
Usman, top work love another fellowman's work dealing with the brownlow. If you need a hand, which i dont think you do cause you're doing a marvellous job, ill lend u a hand. At the end of round 5 due to my brownlow calculations, the leaders of each team are as follows:
Ade Thompson : 3-4 votes
Bris Black/Redden : 2 votes
Carl Judd/Murphy: 9-10 votes
Coll Pendles : 9 votes
Ess Watson : 8 votes
Freo Pav : 6 votes
Geel Bartel 7-8 votes
GC Ablett: 3-4 votes
Haw Franklin :6 votes
Melb Moloney: 8-9 votes
North Swallow/Petrie: 2 votes
Port Westhoff : 3 votes
Rich Deledio/Martin: 3-4 votes
StK Montagne: 3 votes
Syd Goodes: 6 votes
WC Cox : 5 votes
WB Boyd: 8 votes
still havnt finished rd 5 yet but my results are and will be extremely similar to those. Rischitelli (3) over Ablett (2) at GC Westoff at Port they have won a game remeber so they should have some vote getters. Boyd is a big surprise out of that group IMO with 8 votes already i have him on 2 after 4 rounds but he will get a 2 or 3 in round 5 i would imagine after his 45 possie performance, so that makes him 4-5 after 5, what games have you given boyd votes?
Round 5 finally done and updated on leaderboard on original post :)
pretty sure C.JUDD 3 votes for carl V syd game....lol
Quote from: eagles929406 on April 29, 2011, 11:29:55 PM
pretty sure C.JUDD 3 votes for carl V syd game....lol
;D
he was like a sumo tonight :P
3 votes Chris Judd, 2 votes Chris Judd, 1 vote Chris Judd ;D
votes? They'll just give him the Brownlow :)
He was pretty good!
Quote from: ossie85 on April 30, 2011, 10:10:00 AM
votes? They'll just give him the Brownlow :)
He was pretty good!
Yeah he was great, which helped my SC team :D
ye he will get the 3 which will put him by my expectations on 13 votes after round 6. 4 votes more than he was after the same round last year :o
my man crush on him knows no bounds...
in fact i petition Rebecca Twigley Judd to manage a harem of genetically superior women to serve as carriers of CFC's future :o ;D
youll have to fight off those pesky eagles though >:(
Quote from: Usman on April 30, 2011, 02:12:41 PM
youll have to fight off those pesky eagles though >:(
haha we will just have to get more ladies then ;)
ps im lovin this 'its not the posts u put in, its wat u put in them'
Round 6
WCE v Melb
3 M. Priddis 176
2 D. Kerr 133
1 D. Cox 138
Honourable mentions- Butler, Smith, Ebert, Embley, Rosa
Syd v Carl
3 C. Judd 220
2 S.Mumford 160
1 E. Betts 113 or Murphy 148??
Honourable mentions- Mcveigh, Kennedy, Curnow, Ellard
Bored so im putting a list of the best performances over the past 2 years:
J. Riewoldt 247 (Rd12, 2010)
M. Lecras 239 (Rd16, 2010)
G. Ablett 228 (Rd7, 2010)
M. Boyd 226 (Rd5, 2011)
C. Judd 220 (Rd6, 2011)
G. Ablett 215 (Rd3, 2010)
J. Bolton 214 (Rd2, 2011)
D. Swan 214 (Rd4, 2011)
G. Ablett 213 (Rd20, 2010)
L. Thomas 212 (Rd12, 2010)
Thompson 207 (Rd3, 2011)
Bolton 205 (Rd11, 2010)
Pavlich 204 (Rd3, 2010)
Priddis 204 (Rd3, 2010)
Ablett 202 (Rd22, 2010)
Sandilands 201 (Rd8, 2010)
Gibbs 201 (Rd10, 2010)
Swan 201 (Rd1, 2011)
Swallow 201 (Rd4, 2011)
Later on i might put the votes they got in those games next to their scores, see if it predicts 3 votes well enough (there may be some instances were they have scored massively but i didnt put them down for 3 becuase thier team didnt win and there were other close scoring opposition players like Swallow in rd 4 this year and Ablett in rd 3 last year when Pav was awesome aswell off the top of my head think i had pav down for 3 in that game). Also there has been a 200+ score in every round so far this year i think due to the press and increased pressure even from last year to this year there has been more contested posessions and therefore higher scores.
Hmm interesting list there Usman.
I would go with Betts for one vote.
Quote from: roo boys! on April 30, 2011, 09:10:47 PM
Hmm interesting list there Usman.
I would go with Betts for one vote.
+1 Betts will get a vote.
Quote from: Usman on April 29, 2011, 05:54:07 PM
still havnt finished rd 5 yet but my results are and will be extremely similar to those. Rischitelli (3) over Ablett (2) at GC Westoff at Port they have won a game remeber so they should have some vote getters. Boyd is a big surprise out of that group IMO with 8 votes already i have him on 2 after 4 rounds but he will get a 2 or 3 in round 5 i would imagine after his 45 possie performance, so that makes him 4-5 after 5, what games have you given boyd votes?
Yeah rischi should be beating ablett but just like judd, ive gone with the 'ablett factor' in a losing side should get noticed to be leading rischi.. forgot about westhoff just updated it now. in round 3, where Dogs played the sun you have yours votes to Higgo, Ablett, Griff. I gave 3 to Boyd... Played well the whole day but will prob fight it out with higgins for the 3 imo. But yeah should be on 6-8 votes by round 5 i think!!!
+ And also i have Cox getting the 2 votes against Melbourne this week over Kerr..
Kerr was a real roughy for me this week but Cox polls very very badly and Kerr the opposite so i went with him
Quote from: Usman on May 01, 2011, 09:45:11 PM
Kerr was a real roughy for me this week but Cox polls very very badly and Kerr the opposite so i went with him
Kerr's back? ???
Boyd was good round 3 but i stayed true to the points and he and Cross didnt poll because of it even though they both got 36-37 touches :-[ i feel as if i should change it but i think Higgins and Griffen still had numbers in the 30's and they have mroe polish than boydy and crossy.
Brilliant Usman, love reading this thread.
KORZA
QuoteKerr's back? ???
Wouldn go that far but 27 touches, 6 clearences and 7 inside 50's is pretty handy.
Kerr avg's 1 brownlow vote every 1.75 games over his career cox stands at a brownlow vote for every 5.44 games. That forms the basis of my votes since their scores were so close.
I'm considering Kerr in a few weeks!
i said the same thing look through his history and you will change your mind 07 was his only real good year in SC a whopping 119.7 avg but other than that nothing really to speak of and as you would know he is either going to get injured or suspended at some stage so its a HUGE risk IMO. hes next best season other than 07 in SC terms was 05 with an avg of 94.3. a full season would help but he has not going to have a great season with such poor preperation you wouldnt think.
Ahh yes that's true. I think I have enough injury prone players as it is :P
Thanks Usman, good advice!
Was a much better player with Judd and cousins along side him. As Leigh brown has proved, mediocre ayers can be made to look good in a strong team. :) he will get suspended too just wait :) steer clear lads, from a die hard west coast supporter :)
Cheers LE! :)
Thought i would start the rd 6 votes again since its been a while since i started it and there has been a few posts after it
Round 6
WCE v Melb
3 M. Priddis 176
2 D. Kerr 133
1 D. Cox 138
Honourable mentions- Butler, Smith, Ebert, Embley, Rosa
Syd v Carl
3 C. Judd 220
2 S.Mumford 160
1 E. Betts 113 or Murphy 148??
Honourable mentions- Mcveigh, Kennedy, Curnow, Ellard
Kang v Port
3 T. Goldstien 181
2 B. Harvey 112
1 B. Rawlings 84
honourable mentions- Hartlett, AGAIN!!!
Rich v BL
3 N. Foley 180
2 D. Martin 153
1 S. Black 165
Honourable mentions- Nahas, cotchin (who also keeps getting honourable mentions, incredibly consistent), Riewoldt, Rockliff, redden
Adel v StK
3 S.Thompson 152
2 N. Dal Santo 151
1 D. Armitage 156 would have thought at least 2 Adel players voting but the points are the points and had to put nicky dalin fornt of armitage although both played ripper games dal is just class
honourable mentions- Douglas, Tippett
Thats all for now ill do some more when im not weighed down with uni h/w >:(
Jobe Watson for Brownlow this year.
Wouldn't be surprised if Martin got 3 and Foley got 2 for the Tigers game.
D-Mart will be the highest polling tiger for the year. He used to play for Campbell's Creek I think....I hit a mass 6 on that ground....Good times, good times. shower team, but good times. 8)
cambells creek cricket club haha
i thought he played for Castlemaine?
Quotecambells creek cricket club haha
i thought he played for Castlemaine?
Do you know of the famous CCC? :P
He played footy for Castlemaine & cricket for C.C
im from around Bendigo but i live in Geelong now. But i have heard about how bad CCC are haha i dont know if they still are though??
Quote from: Usman on May 05, 2011, 08:46:20 PM
im from around Bendigo but i live in Geelong now. But i have heard about how bad CCC are haha i dont know if they still are though??
Just like my mum :)
QuoteJust like my mum
Thats why i did it.
Kididng, kidding, ;D below the belt i know, just couldnt resist. You'll find i have a Michael Scott sense of humour (from the American Office)
Quotem from around Bendigo but i live in Geelong now. But i have heard about how bad CCC are haha i dont know if they still are though??
They aren't THAT bad.....
Plus, when it rained/flooded. The oval was a lake.
Did I mention I hit a mass six on that ground? :P
At drinks I told everyone I was gunna hit a six over the yonder shed on the hill...... 8)
QuoteDid I mention I hit a mass six on that ground?v :P
Na you didnt mention it :P haha
Classic that you told everyone you were going to do it makes it feel much better. Well i would imagine it would :P i have hit 1 six in my cricket career which has now spanned 14 years. That pretty much sums up my approach to batting haha some of my mates actually changed maddonnas song from time goes by so slowly (or whatever it is) and renamed it steven (my name) bats so slowly. A 54 not out off the entire 75 over innings at the start of this year epitimizes my defensive tendancies haha
QuoteClassic that you told everyone you were going to do it makes it feel much better.
I was strutting like a rooster as I walked back to the pavilion after my 52 not out innings from about 10-15 overs. I didn't have that much strike either. 8)
HAHA love it!!! ;D
Shoulda seen the fielders.
Had 'em all on the boundary after my HUGE six. :P
Okay, I'll stop bragging......Damn it was...
HAHA Windigo ;D
QuoteHad 'em all on the boundary after my HUGE six. :P Okay, I'll stop bragging......Damn it was...
flower that haha i sit at first slip all day haha its funny cause im 2nd youngest (depending on if the youngest gets picjed or not)and there are a couple of 35+ year olds in the team and i get to sit back in the cordon haha feel sorry for the slightly overweight oldies that have to do all the running. we had a guy that we played this year who made 135 off 66 balls :o and we bowled tham out for 166 he hit 15 sixes and i continued to field at 1st slip the entire innings haha ;D 9 (i sound fat dont i haha im really not) What number you bat? or did you bat?
QuoteWhat number you bat? or did you bat?
I generally bat just before the bowlers. So about 7th-8th.
I have the relaxed personality/facade going so they don't take me to seriously so they rate my batting as such.
In the cricket rankings. That's batting, bowling & fielding points all added up I was like 6th in the league. 8)
Sometimes you just be chill and the runs will come. ;)
QuoteIn the cricket rankings. That's batting, bowling & fielding points all added up I was like 6th in the league.
Good effort ;)
Players like yourself have a real X factor. I have a love/hate relatiosnhip with them you never know what your gonna get and if they are even trying haha. but one thing is for sure you want them in your team when they are on and especially dont want them on the oppostitions when they are on fire, they can be demorilisng.
You didnt mention you hit a massive six and Cambells Creek Cricket Ground. Whats the go? ;)
QuoteYou didnt mention you hit a massive six and Cambells Creek Cricket Ground. Whats the go?
Haha, I held back. ;)
letting everyone know ill probably get a bit behind in this due to uni work, sorry to dissapoint ill try my best but im busy as
Is ok Usman! Brownlow night is a whiles away :)
I think these votes are a lil too high. You don't see many with 10 let alone 2 people. Plus with loads of 8's and 9's @ round 5 is a lil too unrealistic imo.
they are high and do look unrealisitc but judd polled 30 votes in 18 rounds last year in a side that was not overly successful so it is possible. I will admit though im concerned with the high numbers and how realistic it is or more like unrealistic it is. remeber if someone has a good year the umpires dont say you pobably got votes in the last game so even though you were best on today i wont give them to you.
mind you this is the brownlow last year after 8 rounds, i dont think my numbers will be to much higher than this? overall
After Round 8:
15 - Chris Judd
13 - Aaron Sandilands
9 - Gary Ablett
9 - Matt Priddis
9 - Dane Swan
8 - Jonathan Brown
8 - Matthew Pavlich
8 - Scott Pendlebury
7 - Michael Barlow
7 - Jobe Watson
7 - Daniel Wells
7 - Jared Brennan *
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/2010-brownlow-leaderboard-20100920-15jmq.html#ixzz1Lp8vaEr7
Since Usman, is busy I thought i'd take over to keep the votes up to date till Usman comes back firing with all his great work. I will also be adding my votes as well just to give a different perspective so we can get a range of brownlow votes.
Round 6
Usman
WCE v Melb
3 M. Priddis 176
2 D. Kerr 133
1 D. Cox 138
Honourable mentions- Butler, Smith, Ebert, Embley, Rosa
Madskill
3 M.Priddis
2 D.Cox
1 D.Kerr
Syd v Carl
Usman
3 C. Judd 220
2 S.Mumford 160
1 E. Betts 113 or Murphy 148??
Honourable mentions- Mcveigh, Kennedy, Curnow, Ellard
Madskill
3 C.Judd
2 S.Mumford
1 E.Betts
Kang v Port
Usman
3 T. Goldstien 181
2 B. Harvey 112
1 B. Rawlings 84
honourable mentions- Hartlett, AGAIN!!!
Madskill
3 B.Harvey
2 T.Goldstein
1 B.Rawlings
Rich v BL
Usman
3 N. Foley 180
2 D. Martin 153
1 S. Black 165
Honourable mentions- Nahas, cotchin (who also keeps getting honourable mentions, incredibly consistent), Riewoldt, Rockliff, redden
Madskill
3 D.Martin
2 N.Foley
1 S.Black
Adel v StK
Usman
3 S.Thompson 152
2 N. Dal Santo 151
1 D. Armitage 156 would have thought at least 2 Adel players voting but the points are the points and had to put nicky dalin fornt of armitage although both played ripper games dal is just class
honourable mentions- Douglas, Tippett
Madskill
3 S.Thompson
2 K.Tippett
1 N.Dal Santo
Ess v GC
Usman
3 K.Reimers 177
2 J.Watson 199
1 S.Lonergan 147
Honourable Mentions- Stanton, Monfries, Howlett
Madskill
3 K.Reimers
2 J.Watson
1 S.Crameri
Coll V Wb
Usman
3 S.Sidebottom 162
2 A.Krak 161
1 R.Griffin 160
Honourable Mentions- Boyd, Leigh Brown
Madskill
3 S.Sidebottom
2 H.Shaw
1 L. Brown
Round 7
Port Ade Vs Hawthorn
Usman
3 S.Mitchell 112 (deserved BOG)
2 D.Brogan 135
1 L.Hodge 120
Honourable Mentions- Shiels, Roughead, Franklin
Madskill
3 S.Mitchell
2 L.Shiels
1 J.Roughead
Geelong Vs NM
Usman
3 J.Selwood 150
2 M.Stokes 151
1 J.Kelly 145
Honourable Mentions- Wells, Podsiadly
Madskill
3 J.Selwood
2 J.Kelly
1 M.Stokes
WB Vs Sydney
Usman
3 A.Goodes 166
2 M.Boyd 165
1 R.Griffen 147
Honourable Mentions- Okeefe, Ward
Madskill
3 A. Goodes
2 R.Okeefe
1 M.Boyd
Gold Cost Vs Brisbane
Usman
3 J. Brennan 237 (HUGGGEEEEE)
2 M. Rischitelli 172
1 D. Rich 160
Honourable Mentions- Black, N.Krak, Leurenberger
Madskill
3 J.Brennan
2 M. Rischietelli
1 N.Krak
Richmond Vs Fremantle
Usman
3 T.Cotchin 161
2 R.Nahas 135
1 A.Sandilands 209
Honourable Mentions- Pavlich 200, Mundy 199 (dont think they will poll in a loosing side)
Madskill
3 T.Cotchin
2 A.Sandilands
1 R.Nahas
Melbourne Vs Adelaide
Usman
3 B.Moloney 232 (WHAAAATTTT A GAME!!!!)
2 C.Sylvia 199
1 N.Van Berlo 138
Honourable Mentions- Trengrove, Gysberts, Jones
Madskill
3 C.Sylvia
2 B.Moloney
1 B. Green
Essendon Vs West Coast
Usman
3 J.Watson 179
2 D.Kerr 172
1 N.Naitanui 167
Honourable Mentions - Priddis,Cox,Crameri
Madskill
3 J.Watson
2 D.Kerr
1 N.Naitanui
Carlton Vs StK
Usman
3 B.Gibbs 149
2 M.Murphy 143
1 C Judd 139
Honourable Mentions- Yarran, Carrazo, Fisher
Madskill
3 B. Gibbs
2 C. Yarran
1 S.Fisher
Leaderboard after 7 rounds
Usman (will update his full accurate leaderboard soon)
15 Watson
14 Judd
11 Murphy
11 Moloney
9 Pendlebury
8 Swan
8 selwood
8 Mitchell
7 Boyd
Madskill
12-13 Watson
11 Judd
10 Moloney
9 Murphy
9 Pendlebury
9 Goodes
9 Boyd
8 Swan
8 Selwood
I'm enjoying this I must say! Very interested to see who gets closer
Those scores look ridiculously high, are you sure thay are right? just did a quick add up on kerr scores cause i was very surprised he got the 3 and he only got around 180
aha i see where i got it wrong i told you possessions were worth 3 points in my scoring they are actually worth 3 im SO SORRY that will probably change things a bit >:( stupid me. i was wondering why these scores were coming up so massive.
Quote from: ossie85 on May 11, 2011, 08:43:02 AM
I'm enjoying this I must say! Very interested to see who gets closer
Indeed! Looking like very close predictions between you two with subtle differences here and there.
Quote from: Usman on May 11, 2011, 01:44:25 PM
aha i see where i got it wrong i told you possessions were worth 3 points in my scoring they are actually worth 3 im SO SORRY that will probably change things a bit >:( stupid me. i was wondering why these scores were coming up so massive.
Haha yeah i did the freo scores and i was like 3 massive freo scores--- something must be wrong. Anyways its all fixed now... Looking pretty good Usman- - - lets see if we can both get as similiar vote count as possible (leading us to make some money at the end of the year)!!!
Quote(leading us to make some money at the end of the year)!!!
;) ;D ;D
this is awesome! great posts guys.
keep it up!!!! :) :D ;D
Great job guys!
ok guys its been a while here is rd 8 votes from now on i will post madskills up with mine and you guys can get another perspective.
Usman's Votes
Geel v Coll
3 J.Selwood 177
2 J. Corey 154
1 D. Thomas 131
Honourale mentions- Shaw
Kang v Melb
3 D. Wells 169
2 T. Goldstien 171
1 A.Edwards 130
Adel v GC
3 G.Ablett 268 (reminding everyone why he is still the best)
2 P.Dangerfield 167
1 S. Thompson 171
BL v Ess
3 Zaharakis 149
2 Myers 140
1 Hocking 134
Syd v Port
3 Bolton 186
2 Kennedy 168
1 Okeefe 158
Haw v StK
3 Hodge 127 (because he won the medal 9 times out of 10 the umps will give it to the player that wins it)
2 Franklin 176 (Should have got the medal and the 3 votes)
1 Lewis 115
WB v Rich
3 Boyd 176
2 Ward 145
1 Gilbee 128
WCE v Fre
3 Priddis 132
2 Lynch 135
1 Fyfe 175 (Couldnt give him more than 1 vote because WC won comfortably and priddis and Lynch's scores were so close that i had to give them the 3 and 2 respectively)
Madskill55 votes
Geel vs Coll
3 Selwood
2 Shaw
1 Dale Thomas
NM Vs Melb
3 Wells
2 Goldstein
1 Edwards
Ade Vs GC
3 Ablett
2 Thompson
1 Dangerfield
Syd Vs Port
3 Goodes (Bolton should poll 3 but i think umps will give the 3 to goodes anyways)
2 Bolton
1 Kennedy
Ess Vs Bris
3 Zaharakis
2 Myers
1 Rockliffe
WB Vs Rich
3 Gilbee
2 Boyd
1 Ward
Haw Vs Stk
3 Franklin
2 Savage
1 Fisher
WC Vs Fre
3 Priddis
2 Naitanui
1 Fyfe
Usman's Leaderbord Madskill's Leaderboard
15 Watson 12-13 Watson
13 Judd 11-12 Goodes
11 Selwood 11 Selwood
11 Moloney 11 Judd
10 Boyd 11 Boyd
9 Murphy 10 Moloney
9 Pendlebury 9 Murphy
9 Priddis 9 Pendlebury
8 Swan 9 Franklin
8 Fyfe 8 Swan
8 Franklin 8 S.Thompson
8 Bolton
Does anybody know what warrants a ban from the brownlow?
Do you have to miss a mtach or can a reprimand make a player ineliegible? eg. Adam Goodes tripping offence this round?
Adam Goodes is still eligible.
One of the best threads of the year, i'm still with Usman.
Quote from: Archer11 on May 23, 2011, 06:52:18 PM
Does anybody know what warrants a ban from the brownlow?
Do you have to miss a mtach or can a reprimand make a player ineliegible? eg. Adam Goodes tripping offence this round?
If they get suspended for 1 or more games, they are ineligble I'm pretty sure. A reprimand still sees them in the running for The Charlie as remember last year it came up.
Thanks guys
Quote from: Hellopplz on May 24, 2011, 12:10:39 AM
Quote from: Archer11 on May 23, 2011, 06:52:18 PM
Does anybody know what warrants a ban from the brownlow?
Do you have to miss a mtach or can a reprimand make a player ineliegible? eg. Adam Goodes tripping offence this round?
If they get suspended for 1 or more games, they are ineligble I'm pretty sure. A reprimand still sees them in the running for The Charlie as remember last year it came up.
Technically you can get suspended for 1 week and still be eligible, you can also not get suspended and become ineligible. Remember, for every 100 points you get 1 week suspension at tribunal.
With the points system for the tribunal, if you get over 100 points for an offence you can't win the brownlow. So a player may get 120 points. He can't win the Brownlow. But he can plead guilty, get a 25% discount, that takes him under 100 points, so he misses a suspension. In this case, he doesn't get suspended, but can't win the Brownlow.
OR, you can get 50 points at the tribunal. Meaning you can still win the Brownlow. But you may have 60 points carryover, and since 60+50=110, you get suspended for a week. Here, a player has been suspended, but can still win the Brownlow.
Thanks ossie.I had a feeling it was more complicated than it seems... Damn tribunal
Quote from: ossie85 on May 24, 2011, 08:58:24 AM
Quote from: Hellopplz on May 24, 2011, 12:10:39 AM
Quote from: Archer11 on May 23, 2011, 06:52:18 PM
Does anybody know what warrants a ban from the brownlow?
Do you have to miss a mtach or can a reprimand make a player ineliegible? eg. Adam Goodes tripping offence this round?
If they get suspended for 1 or more games, they are ineligble I'm pretty sure. A reprimand still sees them in the running for The Charlie as remember last year it came up.
Technically you can get suspended for 1 week and still be eligible, you can also not get suspended and become ineligible. Remember, for every 100 points you get 1 week suspension at tribunal.
With the points system for the tribunal, if you get over 100 points for an offence you can't win the brownlow. So a player may get 120 points. He can't win the Brownlow. But he can plead guilty, get a 25% discount, that takes him under 100 points, so he misses a suspension. In this case, he doesn't get suspended, but can't win the Brownlow.
OR, you can get 50 points at the tribunal. Meaning you can still win the Brownlow. But you may have 60 points carryover, and since 60+50=110, you get suspended for a week. Here, a player has been suspended, but can still win the Brownlow.
So 100 points = Ineligble? Guess that works out. Thanks Oss as I'm not good when it comes to all the technical stuff with these awards :P.
feels like forever once again. Uni just busy, busy so here is rd 9,10 and 11 the leaderboard along with mads votes and leaderboard will be posted asap cheers and thanks for the support. i wont post the scores up cause up but if people wanna know them i will put them up next to the palyers like i usually do.
Round 9
Usmans votes
Carl v Geel
3 Kelly
2 Murphy
1 Selwood
Stk v Melb
3 Montagna
2 Riewoldt
1 Goddard
Port v Fre
3 Lower
2 Fyfe
1 Mundy
BL v Kang
3 Brown
2 Black
1 Swallow
Rich v Ess
3 Cotchin
2 Deledio
1 Mcviegh
Coll v Adel
3 Pendlebury
2 Thomas
1 Thompson
Syd v Haw
3 Franklin
2 Hodge
1 Birchall
WCE v WB
3 Kennedy
2 Shuey
1 Cox
Mads Votes
Geelong Vs Carlton
3 J.Selwood
2 H.Scotland
1 M.Murphy
StKilda Vs Melb
3 L.Montagne
2 N.Riedwoldt
1 B.Goddard
Fremantle Vs Port Adelaide
3 N.Fyfe
2 N.Lower
1 R.Crowley
Brisbane Vs North
3 J.Brown
2 D.Petrie
1 J.Adcock
Richmond Vs Essendon
3 T.Cotchin
2 B.Deledio
1 D.Heppell
Collingwood Vs Adelaide
3 D.Thomas
2 S.Thompson
1 S.Pendlebury
Hawthorn Vs Syd
3 L.Franklin
2 G.Birchall
1 L.Shiels
WC Vs WB
3 J.Kennedy
2 L.Shuey
1 D. Cox
Round 10
Carl v Melb
3 Judd
2 Murphy
1 Robinson
StK v Fre
3 Dal santo
2 Montagna
1 Schnieder
Kang v Syd
3 Swallow
2 Mcglynn
1 Wells
Geel v GC
3 Johnson
2 Selwood
1 Ling
Rich v Port
3 Boak
2 Foley
1 Gray
Adel v BL
3 Black
2 Clark
1 Thompson
Coll v
3 Thomas
2 Pendlebury
1 Ball
WB v Haw
3 Guerra
2 Hodge
1 Giansiracusa
Mads Votes
Carl v Melb
3 Judd
2 Murphy
1 Robinson
StK v Fre
3 Dal santo
2 Schnieder
1 Broughton
Kang v Syd
3 Swallow
2 Mcglynn
1 Grundy
Geel v GC
3 Johnson
2 Selwood
1 Kelly
Rich v Port
3 Boak
2 Foley
1 Gray
Adel v BL
3 Clark
2 Black
1 Thompson
Coll v
3 Thomas
2 Pendlebury
1 Ball
WB v Haw
3 Hodge
2 Guerra
1 Franklin
Round 11
Ess v Melb
3 Mckenzie
2 Trengove
1 Moloney
WCE v GC
3 Cox
2 Lecras
1 Ablett
Geel v WB
3 Johnson
2 Ottens
1 Bartel
Coll v StK
3 Pendlebury
2 Thomas
1 Cloke
BL v Syd
3 Bolton
2 Okeefe
1 Kennedy
Haw v Fre
3 Mitchell
2 Rioli
1 Roughead
Kang v Adel
3 Swallow
2 Ziebell
1 Goldstien
Port v Carl
3 Robinson
2 Murphy
1 Carrazzo
Mads Votes
Ess v Melb
3 Mckenzie
2 Moloney
1 Martin
WCE v GC
3 Cox
2 Lecras
1 Ablett
Geel v WB
3 Ottens
2 Johnson
1 Bartel
Coll v StK
3 Pendlebury
2 Thomas
1 Shaw
BL v Syd
3 Bolton
2 Okeefe
1 Goodes
Haw v Fre
3 Mitchell
2 Rioli
1 Roughead
Kang v Adel
3 Swallow
2 Goldstein
1 Ziebell
Port v Carl
3 Walker
2 Murphy
1 Robinson
Usmans Round 11 Leaderboard
16 S.Pendlebury
16 C.Judd
15 J.Watson
15 M. Murphy
14 J. Selwood
12 B. Moloney
11 L. Franklin
11 J. Bolton
11 A. Swallow
11 D. Thomas
10 M. Boyd
10 N. Fyfe
10 D. Cox
10 S. Mitchell
Madskill's Round 11 Leaderboard
16 S.Pendlebury
15-16 J. Selwood
14 C.Judd
13-14 M.Muprhy
12-13 Goodes
12-13 Franklin
12-13 Watson
12 Moloney
11 D.Thomas
11 D.Cox
11 M.Boyd
11 S.Mitchell
Marc Murphy, you heard it here ;)
DAISY!!!
I saw Swallow at 151-1 at the start of the season..considered it.
Quote from: elephants on June 06, 2011, 12:27:00 AM
Marc Murphy, you heard it here ;)
I'd prefer him and Pendles over Swan and Judd easily 8).
He can still win the count :)
murphy will be leading at moment IMO
Marc is a champ but Judd will be nicking A LOT of his votes. I think Jelwood will win it. I hope that Marc does though.
i think murphy has a poor polling history? i could be wrong though. Selwood however doesnt and with Ablett gone and Geelong still winning could mean he snags more votes than previous years.
maybe im wrong murphy came 10th in the 09 brownlow with 15 votes, only 5 votes last year though
I think Marc had some sort of hip injury last season. He had surgery during the offseason i think??
I seem to remember something like that as well. Played round 1 and actually started last year very well though. Missed R13 with a hammy but other than that I can't find anything :\
he did have surgery on last years off season but he still had good numbers he was one player that didnt go as i expected only polling 5 votes when i predicted him to get 11. Hope that doesnt happen again.
Murphy had no pre-season last year and had little/no impact on games last year, big improvement this year and did poll very well year before 08 in a very average year for carlton
your probably right he was very consistent last year but didnt have a great impact. He tended to have his best games in losing teams which didnt help his polling
i have done an analysis on last years brownlow and how accurate my predictions were from the scoring i use. (instead of studying for uni exams) >:(
30% of the tiime it predicted the right player with the right amount of votes for a game
65% of the time it predicted who would poll but not necesarily how many votes they would poll
leaving 35% of the time me being completely wrong.
i have not looked at how many times it got the 3 votes right but i would say about 80-85%
but it only predicted the games exactly (who would poll the 3,2,1) about 5-10% of the time.
Not flawless but helpful i guess, also the second half seems far more accurate when i started watching a few more games (the first 12-13 rounds were purely based on going back over the stats and basing my votes entirley on their score) and actually writing down who played well when it mattered so that i could predict more accurately.
farkin J. Selwood my new guess has to be Pendlebury
Swallow has come into $26 after being over $101 at the start of the season ::) GUN
may need to re-jig my scoring for next year with this trend http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/bump-in-old-school-stats/story-e6frf9jf-1226075703407
Round 12
Usmans Votes
StK v WB
3 Boyd
2 Goddard
1 Mcevoy
Adel v WCE
3 Kerr
2 Lecras
1 Rosa
GC v Kang
3 Wells
2 Ablett
1 Harvey
Geel v Haw
3 Podsiadly
2 Mitchell
1 Shiels
Carl v BL
3 Walker
2 Murphy
1 Judd
Syd v Rich
3 Seaby
2 Martin
1 Okeefe
Fre v Ess
3 Pavlich
2 Ballantyne
1 Mcpharlin
Coll v Melb
3 Wellingham
2 Cloke
1 Pendlebury
Mads Votes
StK v WB
3 Boyd
2 Goddard
1 Mcevoy
Adel v WCE
3 Kerr
2 Lecras
1 Embley
GC v Kang
3 Wells
2 Ablett
1 Harvey
Geel v Haw
3 Podsiadly
2 Mitchell
1 Shiels
Carl v BL
3 Murphy
2 Walker
1 Judd
Syd v Rich
3 Seaby
2 Okeefe
1 Martin
Fre v Ess
3 Pavlich
2 Mcpharlin
1 Ballantyne
Coll v Melb
3 Wellingham
2 Cloke
1 Ball
Usman's Round 12 Leaderboard
19 M. Murphy
18 C. Judd
17 S. Pendlebury
15 J. Watson
14 J. Selwood*
13 M. Boyd
12 S. Mitchell
12 B. Moloney
11 L. Franklin
11 J. Bolton
11 A. Swallow
11 D. Thomas*
*indicates ineligable
Madskill's Round 12 Leaderboard
murphy 16-17
pendles 16
selwood* 15-16
judd 15
boyd 14
watson 12--13
goodes 12--13
buddy 12--13
moloney 12
thomas 11
cox 11
mitchell 11
thomas* 11
*indicates ineligable
I would give the 3 votes to Wells TBH.
Sticking with Marco Murphy :D
HAHA you picked the game i spent the most time analysing. i automatically gave Wells the 3 votes but then changed my mind to Ablett because his numbers were to good to deny he scored 192 against wells 162. I may change it again to 3- Wells 2- Ablett 1- Harvey or even 3- Wells 2- Harvey 1- Ablett.
Yes, kangas won the game and won easy and with such a good performance from Wells (and Harvey) it should mean he gets the 3 votes, but how many times do you see a player with the skill off finese of Ablett get 38 touches 6 clearances 8 tackles and 2 goals and not get the 3? i was working by the theory that Ablett was so good and so far ahead of everyone else on his team that the umpires will see him as basically being the GC team (if that makes sense?)
On the other hand though Wells was very good also and he always polls when he plays well he is a very eye catching player, this games votes are still pending as far as im concerned. dont be surprised if i change it most likely just swapping Wells and Ablett for the 3 and 2
QuoteSticking with Marco Murphy
Just keeps chipping away he has polled in 9 of 11 games Carlton has played by my calculations
I AM SO GLAD i did this because i realised that i missed round 7 When Mads was kind enough to do my votes for me that murphy polled 2 against StK actually putting him in the lead with 19 votes :o
I will fix up the leaderboards and maybe some other votes i have missed in round 7 when i can be bothered. Id like to clear up that the confusion is purely my fault as i moved votes after round 7 to a seperate excell document so dont feel bad mads.
looks like murphy could poll again :-\ if he does that is 10 times out of 12 games that he has polled this season by my calculations. ( the most ever is 14 by Robert Harvey in 98) Im worried that is really really high. I remember Judd polled 5 consecutive 3 last year from rounds 4-8 and polled in the first 8 games of the year in 07 for 16 votes but this is on a whole other level he has the potential to be 20+ votes with still 10 games for carlton to play :o
Round 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Votes 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ?
Murphy and Pendles are Jets. If you can get them to outpoll Judd + Swan at tasty odds, I may take them 8). Can you do that? :P.
QuoteMurphy and Pendles are Jets. If you can get them to outpoll Judd + Swan at tasty odds, I may take them . Can you do that? :P
ill try my best :P i think you will get good odds on murphy just because Judd is Judd everyone in the footy circles love him and many think he has the brownlow sewn up ( or at least he should be the favourite). i think after todays game though where Murphy should poll, he is looking like pulling away to an even further lead and could be hard to catch. Its a big call but so far it looks like its down to a 3 horse race with Murphy, Judd and Pendlebury many other players are too far away, their teams dont win enough or suspension has ruled them out. Murphy could be on 22 votes after just 12 games. UNBELEIVABLE could break R. Harveys record of 32 votes and has possibly polled in 10 games, also closing in on Harvey's record of polling in 14 games in a single season.
Judd is a Superstar but since Murphy is on the same team gets less noticed. He's not as Gamebreaking as Judd but people forget how consistent he is and such a glue in their team. He's consistently AWESOME :P.
If he breaks that record, it'll be insane :o. Wonder how much that bet would pay off....
sorry guys been working LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG days will get the last couple of weeks up in the next couple of days ;)
Usman where have you been, really missed reading this thread. I too think it is a done deal with the trio you have mentioned. As an absolute bolter, what are your thoughts on Molony as a top 5 pick ?
KORZA
You can give up on this thread now. Murphy has the Brownlow in the bag.
Absolute star. Might have a little splurge on him. What's he paying?
Mr. Pendlebury wouldn't be far off
wot about priddis from eagles? polled extremely well last year in a pathetic season and has been extremely consistant again this year
Gday lads, I just noticed this thread.
I too have been obliviously running my own phantom brownlow medal. I have updated mine from round 16, and have awarded for every single match this year with a 3-2-1 which I can recall if any of you are curious.
I noticed Usman's absence after the great job he has done, so I'll help him out here.
Round 16 votes.
West Coast Vs. Geelong
3- Embley
2- Priddis
1- Kerr
Hawthorn Vs. Brisbane
3- Hodge
2- Mitchell
1- Gibson
Gold Coast Vs. Sydney
3- O'Keefe
2- McVeigh
1- Goodes
Essendon Vs. Richmond
3- Stanton
2- Crameri
1- Zaharakis
Collingwood Vs. North Melbourne
3- Swan
2- Pendlebury
1- Thomas
Port Adelaide Vs. St. Kilda
3- Dal Santo
2- Goddard
1- Gamble
Western Bulldogs Vs. Carlton
3- Cooney
2- Gibbs
1- M.Murphy
And the leaderboard so far is...
Sam Mitchell and Marc Murphy- 20
Matthew Boyd and Brent Moloney- 17
Chris Judd, Matt Priddis and Scott Pendlebury- 16
Joel Selwood, Scott Thompson and Dane Swan- 15
If you want to know any other game's votes, or any player's current vote tally, give us a shout.
Cheers
Where does Ryan O'keefe fit into the leaderboard? I was just curious as he is paying nice odds as Sydneys highest vote getter.
I have O'Keefe on 14 votes, Goodes on 12 and Bolton on 10.
What are O'Keefe's odds?
dyson hepple :P? jobe watson?
Quote from: The return on July 12, 2011, 01:33:37 AM
dyson hepple :P? jobe watson?
Heppell 0 :o been unlucky
Watson 12
Sorry fellas, Usman and I have been fairly busy... These are my votes from round 13 onwards and Usman will post his votes up shortly...
Round 13 votes.
WB Vs Ade
3- Griffin
2- Murphy
1- Gia
Geel Vs StK
3- Corey
2- Chapman
1- Dal Santo
Bris Vs Rich
3- Martin
2- Cotchin
1- Leurenberger
Essendon Vs. NM
3- Wells
2- Harvey
1- Petrie
Hawthorn Vs GC
3- Savage
2- Mitchell
1- Ablett
WC vs Port
3- Hurn
2- Priddis
1- Kerr
Melb Vs Freo
3- Green
2- Martin
1- Watts
Carl vs Syd
3- Kreuzer
2- Murphy
1- gibbs
Round 14 votes.
Haw Vs Ess
3- Birchall
2- Mitchell
1- Savage
Freo Vs. Brisbane
3- Pav
2- Broughton
1- Black
Coll Vs. Sydney
3- Cloke
2- Swan
1- Ball
Melb Vs. Richmond
3- Moloney
2- Jones
1- Watts
WB Vs GC
3- Griffen
2- Boyd
1- Ablett
Port Adelaide Vs. NM
3- Petrie
2- Goldstein
1- Wells
Geel Vs Ade
3- Enright
2- Ling
1- Christensen
West Coast Vs. Carl
3- Priddis
2- Scotland
1- Q.Lynch
Round 15 Votes
Wb Vs Melb
3- Griffen
2- Gia
1- Cooney
Rich Vs. Carl
3- Judd
2- Robinson
1- Warnock
GC Vs Freo
3- Ablett
2- Griffen
1- Pavlich
Ess vs Geel
3- Melksham
2- Chapman
1- Heppell
Ade Vs Syd
3- Jacobs
2- Okeefe
1- Petrenko
Port Vs Bris
3- Schulz
2- Power
1- Rockcliff
Coll Vs Haw
3- Reid
2- Hodge
1- Pendles
Stk Vs Nm
3- Goddard
2- Dal Santo
1- Goldstein
Round 16 votes.
West Coast Vs. Geelong
3- Embley
2- Priddis
1- Ling
Hawthorn Vs. Brisbane
3- Hodge
2- Mitchell
1- Franklin
Gold Coast Vs. Sydney
3- O'Keefe
2- McVeigh
1- Goodes
Essendon Vs. Richmond
3- Stanton
2- Zaharakis
1- Cotchin
Collingwood Vs. North Melbourne
3- Swan
2- Pendlebury
1- Thomas
Port Adelaide Vs. St. Kilda
3- Dal Santo
2- Goddard
1- Hartlett
Western Bulldogs Vs. Carlton
3- Cooney
2- Boyd
1- Murphy
Leaderboard
Murphy 19-20
pendles 19
judd 18-19
mitchell* 18-19
boyd 17
selwood* 15-16
moloney 15-16
Priddis 14
* Potentially Ineligible
How do you calculate Daisy this week? IMO, was clearly best on ground before he was 'rested' in the final quarter, where Swan and Pendles finished the job.
I'd just about give 3 to Daisy, given how flashy he was.
To be honest with you mate, I was sooo tempted to give Daisy the big 3 this week.... But as u said he was rested in the last quarter and the umpires will remember of what happens in the last 2 quarters of football as it is fresh in their head...Hence maybe Daisy bein rested in the final quarter where swanny and pendles just stood up might be the difference in getting 3 votes and 1 Vote.... But regardless the top 3 vote getters for that match will be those 3 collingwood midfielders, maybe in a different order, maybe in the same order only time will tell mate!
Quote from: Junktimer on July 12, 2011, 01:05:51 AM
I have O'Keefe on 14 votes, Goodes on 12 and Bolton on 10.
What are O'Keefe's odds?
It's paying $6.70 with player. Looks nice to me??
Ok guys here it is rds 14 to 16 and the leaderboard alot has changed since rd 13 and i am startign to wonder if i jumped the gun calling the brownlow a three horse race between; Murphy, Judd and Pendles after rd 13.
Round 14
Haw v Ess
3 Mitchell
2 Birchall
1 Shiels
WB v GC
3 Griffen
2 Boyd
1 Ablett
Melb v Rich
3 Moloney
2 Watts
1 Foley
Fre v BL
3 Pavlich
2 Black
1 Broughton
Syd v Coll
3 Cloke
2 Swan
1 Ball
O'Keefe very unlucky along with a few other swannies
Geel v Adel
3 Enright
2 Christensen
1 Corey
Carl v WCE
3 Priddis
2 Scotland
1 Lynch
Port v Kang
3 Petrie
2 Wells
1 Ziebell
Round 15
WB v Melb
3 Griffen
2 Giansiracusa
1 Cooney
GC v Fre
3 Ablett
2 Griffen
1 Fyfe
Carl v Rich
3 Judd
2 Robinson
1 Carrazzo
Ess v Geel
3 Melksham
2 Howlett
1 Chapman
Adel v Syd
3 Vince
2 Bolton
1 Okeefe
Port v BL
3 Schulz
2 Power
1 Rockliff
Haw v Coll
3 Hodge
2 Swan
1 Thomas
Stk v Kang
3 Dal Santo
2 Goddard
1 Goldstein
Round 16
WCE v Geel
3 Embley
2 Priddis
1 Corey
Haw v BL
3 Mitchell
2 Hodge
1 Brown
Syd v GC
3 Mcveigh
2 Okeefe
1 Goodes
Ess v Rich
3 Stanton
2 Hocking
1 Zaharakis
Coll v Kang
3 Thomas
2 Pendlebury
1 Swan
StK v Port
3 Dal Santo
2 Goddard
1 Hartlett
WB v Carl
3 Boyd
2 Ward
1 Cooney
Usman's Leaderboard
22 Murphy
21 Judd
20 Mitchell*
19 Pendlebury
18 Boyd
17 Priddis
15 Watson
15 Moloney
15 Thomas*
14 Hodge
14 Selwood*
QuoteWhere does Ryan O'keefe fit into the leaderboard? I was just curious as he is paying nice odds as Sydneys highest vote getter.
my sydney vote getters are as follows:
Bolton 13
Okeefe 12
Goodes 8
Kennedy 5
Seaby 3
Mcveigh 3
Mumford 2
Mcglynn 2
you can look at it two ways; you can either make a lot of money by picking which of the 3 (Bolton, Okeefe and Goodes) will poll the most as there should be good odds available. Or you can stear clear as it is too cloase to calland has the potential to destroy multi's.
Quotedyson hepple ? jobe watson?
My Essendon vote getters are as follows:
Watson 15
Hocking 5
Zaharakis 4
Reimers 3
Melksham 3
Stanton 3
Howlett 2
Myers 2
Bellchambers 2
Hille 1
Crameri 1
Lonergan 1
Mcveigh 1
Heppell no votes for me either i know for a fact he has been very unlucky on alot more than one ocassion though so i will say he will probably poll somewhere along the line but not enough to worry watson as essendon's top poller. watsons hamstring injury(s) should only bring smiles to the faces of punters its only going to lengthen his price and IMO no one at essendon will catch him.
Keep up the top work Usman legendary stuff will you post your team predictions at the end of season? Saw your earlier post bout last year very impressive. Always enjoy coming back to this thread.
Quotewill you post your team predictions at the end of season?
At the risk of completely getting everything wrong and looking like an idiot, i will post a summary of every vote for every player in club order ;D
BORED!!!
So i will post my running predicitions for each club.
Adel
Thompson 9
Rielly 3
Dangerfield 3
Vince 3
Johncock 1
Bris
Black 9
Brown 4
Redden 3
Power 3
Clark 2
Rich 1
Rockliff 1
Carl
Murphy 22
Judd 21
Robinson 6
Gibbs 5
Walker 3
Carrazzo 2
Kruezer 2
Scotland 2
Betts 1
Coll
Pendelbury 19
Thomas 15
Swan 13
Cloke 7
Blair 3
Sidebottom 3
Shaw 3
Wellingham 3
Krakour 2
Davis 2
Ball 2
Dawes 1
Beams 1
Ess
Watson 15
Hocking 5
Zaharakis 4
Reimers 3
Melksham 3
Stanton 3
Howlett 2
Myers 2
Bellchambers 2
Hille 1
Crameri 1
Lonergan 1
Mcveigh 1
Fre
Pavlich 13
Fyfe 11
Sandilands 4
Mundy 3
Lower 3
Ballantyne 2
Griffin 2
Mcpharlin 1
Broughton 1
Geel
Selwood 14
Bartel 7
Kelly 6
Johnson 6
Enright 6
Chapman 6
Corey 6
Stokes 5
Podsiadly 3
Ling 2
Ottens 2
Christensen 2
Wojcinski 1
GC
Ablett 12
Rischitelli 5
Brennan 5
Swallow 1
Haw
Mitchell 20
Hodge 14
Franklin 11
Rioli 4
Savage 3
Suckling 3
Lewis 3
Guerra 3
Birchall 3
Burgouyne 2
Shiels 2
Sewell 1
Kang
Swallow 13
Wells 10
Goldstien 7
Harvey 6
Petrie 4
Ziebell 3
Rawlings 1
Edwards 1
Melb
Moloney 15
Sylvia 4
Trengove 4
Green 3
Jamar 3
McKenzie 3
Watts 3
Martin 2
Maric 1
Port
Brogan 4
Schulz 3
Westoff 3
Boak 3
Gray 1
Hartlett 1
Rich
Martin 9
Cotchin 8
Foley 6
Deledio 5
Nahas 2
Riewoldt 1
StK
Dal Santo 12
Montagna 8
Goddard 7
Hayes 2
Milne 2
Armitage 2
Riewoldt 2
Schnieder 2
Mcevoy 1
Syd
Bolton 13
Okeefe 12
Goodes 8
Kennedy 5
Seaby 3
Mcveigh 3
Mumford 2
Mcglynn 2
WB
Boyd 18
Griffen 13
Ward 6
Gian 4
Higgins 3
Cooney 3
Gilbee 1
WCE
Priddis 17
Cox 10
Embley 6
Kerr 5
Lecras 5
Shuey 4
Kennedy 3
Lynch 3
Hurn 2
Rosa 1
Quote from: Usman on July 15, 2011, 12:29:34 PM
Quotewill you post your team predictions at the end of season?
At the risk of completely getting everything wrong and looking like an idiot, i will post a summary of every vote for every player in club order ;D
Thats a good idea I mean as far as being an idiot far from it dude takes time to do this stuff and its great you put it out there. 1mean ofcourse people will use it for betting, I like to use it as another source of information. Love the brownlow medal count last few years been working though. Should start your own blog you might get a guernsey from the AFL.
ROUND 1
Usman 3
madskill55 2
The sheep 1
LOL at Port.
Nice list, like the Pies one especially
Round 17
Adel v Ess
3 Monfries
2 Thompson
1 Hocking
Rich v GC
3 Ablett
2 Newman
1 Iles
Carl v Coll
3 Thomas
2 Judd
1 Pendlebury
Stk v WCE
3 Montagna
2 Dal Santo
1 Cox
Melb v Port
3 Pettard
2 Martin
1 Cassisi
Syd v Fre
3 Fyfe
2 Lower
1 Kennedy
BL v Geel
3 Podsiadly
2 Bartel
1 Rockliff
Kang v WB
3 Ziebell
2 Petrie
1 Swallow
Leaderboard
23 Judd
22 Murphy
20 Mitchell*
20 Pendlebury
18 Boyd
18 Thomas*
17 Priddis
15 Watson
15 Moloney
15 Ablett
Go Pendles, yours this year!
It would be amusing if Mitchell/Daisy came 1st/2nd with Judd third :c
Imagine the bashing :P
QuoteGo Pendles, yours this year!
Collingwood have an easier draw than Carlton meaning pendles could shorten the gap from the blues duo or even pass them. Carlton's bye in Round 23 could make it very interesting. For Pendlebury's sake i hope mick doesnt rest him but i think that is more than likely.
QuoteIt would be amusing if Mitchell/Daisy came 1st/2nd with Judd third :c
Imagine the bashing
Haha i can only imagine that would be fanny as. Still 7 rounds to go and it seems to get tighter each week, and after writing everyone off earlier in the season apart from Murphy, Judd and Pendles anything can happen. If Boyd and Priddis have the legs they could make it so close towards the end.
if watson never got injured, would he be first?
Quote from: Cookie Monster on July 21, 2011, 05:22:55 PM
if watson never got injured, would he be first?
How can we know?
Haha he was leading before he got injured. But no-one can answer that question.
Quote from: Sid on July 21, 2011, 09:05:29 AM
It would be amusing if Mitchell/Daisy came 1st/2nd with Judd third :c
Imagine the bashing :P
LOL ;D
Round 17
Adel v Ess
3 Monfries
2 Thompson
1 Zaharakis
Rich v GC
3 Ablett
2 Newman
1 Swallow
Carl v Coll
3 Pendles
2 Judd
1 Thomas
Stk v WCE
3 Montagna
2 Cox
1 Goddard
Melb v Port
3 Pettard
2 Martin
1 Sylvia
Syd v Fre
3 Fyfe
2 Lower
1 Broughton
BL v Geel
3 Podsiadly
2 Bartel
1 Black
Kang v WB
3 Ziebell
2 Wells
1 Petrie
Leaderboard
22 Pendlebury
20-21 Judd
18-19 Murphy
18-19 Mitchell*
17 Boyd
17 Ablett
15-16 Selwood*
15-16 Moloney
PENDLES!!!
thanks Mads startign to notice a few differences in our polling i like it. Pendles is apparently $9 for the medal he is a good chance. My system had him polling 19 last year and he got 21 so he could definately be a few votes higher than i have. Also was very unlucky not to poll higher than 1 last week but Judd and Thomas were both very good also and judd polls like no other.
Chris Judd just rang my place by mistake trying to order a new glass cabinet to be delivered to his house on the 26th of September. He was rambling a bit but I think he said the old one won't be big enough or something???
Had to let the poor fella down and tell him that he will have trouble finding someone open this early on a Sunday morning evenwhen he does call the right number ::)
Haha ;D
they just gonna rename it juddlow until he retires they just give it to him every year at start of season, get it over with :P
Quote from: eagles929406 on July 25, 2011, 07:55:33 PM
they just gonna rename it juddlow until he retires they just give it to him every year at start of season, get it over with :P
This
normally im a fan of most of the calculated callous dialogue that passes thru Grant Thomas's lips, its unique...
yet tonight i heard him mention Adam Goodes and winning this years Brownlow medal on two occasions ???
have i missed something or has Thomo watched no footy since being sacked in 2006?
3 votes Carlton
O.Judd
Jeez, Chris Judd is most likely going to win his 3rd brownlow at this rate. Is this man unstoppable, he should just get given an "Oscar" as well....oh wait a minute, he already has one :P
i would be backing Pendles for a little now before his price falls from $9.... and it will!
multi:
Franklin CM
Pendles BL
Pies PREM
multi:
Franklin CM
Pendles BL
Hawks To Make GF
Both bets high chance of happening! i put $40 on the Hawks bet for a return of close to 2.5k
Was going to do it last week but didn't and that saw Hawks price to make GF half, 8/1 down to 4/1
If Pendles plays another BOG game you can expect his price to do the same.
good odds hippo. Great points to if you wanna get good odds get on early don't wait around
Quote from: madskill55 on July 27, 2011, 02:02:40 PM
Jeez, Chris Judd is most likely going to win his 3rd brownlow at this rate. Is this man unstoppable, he should just get given an "Oscar" as well....oh wait a minute, he already has one :P
Hah
Why was this thread moved ?
I moved it... I thought it was better in the AFL section, given the Front Bar is more for general discussion or non-football stuff, etc, and this is quite a good topic!
Easily moved back if people prefer though
Quote from: Hippo on July 28, 2011, 03:04:50 PM
i would be backing Pendles for a little now before his price falls from $9.... and it will!
multi:
Franklin CM
Pendles BL
Pies PREM
multi:
Franklin CM
Pendles BL
Hawks To Make GF
Both bets high chance of happening! i put $40 on the Hawks bet for a return of close to 2.5k
Was going to do it last week but didn't and that saw Hawks price to make GF half, 8/1 down to 4/1
If Pendles plays another BOG game you can expect his price to do the same.
Nice bets there!
judd
pendles
Cox
and late comer to the betting
NDSanto.. (assuming he is still eligible ? ) super last 8 weeks x 3 votes + games left = good chance to get enough votes...
one of those got to win I recon...
Pendle into 7 now!
Have been some big changes in the leaderboard and i may do an analysis of late season bolters best string of games throughout the season etc... whan i have time. Stay tuned!!!!!
Round 18
StK v Adel
3 Milne
2 Dal Santo
1 Schnieder
BL v Kang
3 Black
2 Petrie
1 Bastinac
Syd v WB
3 Goodes
2 Jack
1 Okeefe
Coll v GC
3 Pendlebury
2 Ablett
1 Ball
Carl v Ess
3 Judd
2 Betts
1 Murphy
Geel v Rich
3 Cotchin
2 Christensen
1 Selwood
Haw v Melb
3 Mitchell
2 Sewell
1 Franklin
WCE v Fre
3 Cox
2 Shuey
1 Barlow
Round 19
Kang v Carl
3 Swallow
2 Simpson
1 Gibbs
WCE v WB
3 Cox
2 Boyd
1 Priddis
Geel v Melb
3 Johnson
2 Selwood
1 Corey
Haw v Fre
3 Mitchell
2 Sewell
1 Fyfe
StK v GC
3 Dal Santo
2 Ablett
1 Goddard
Coll v Ess
3 Swan
2 Pendlebury
1 Fasolo
Adel v Port
3 Van Berlo
2 Vince
1 Dangerfield
Usman's Leaderboard
26 Judd
26 Mitchell*
25 Pendlebury
23 Murphy
20 Boyd
19 Dal Santo
19 Ablett
18 Priddis
18 Thomas*
17 Swallow
17 Cox
17 Selwood*
*Denotes ineligable
Come on Pendles! You can catch the Juggernaught :)
i hope a rest week from mick doesnt cost pendles the medal
Usman, B.Gibbs 1 votes versus the Kanga's? What's going on there? Swallow had something crazy like 19d. in the first half but brycey had 20d, 9 tkls, 4.2...definitely the 3 and 2 votes will be shared amongst those two for sure. Im putting my money on the latter for taking out the 3 votes...
Terrible.
I have been waiting for someone to challenge me. Finally. This is how i see it, particularly hard game this one with judd collecting 16 disposals in the second half and Murphy and Yarran playing very well also. when i cant pick i go purely on my scoring system and this is the votes it spat out i have changed votes mid week before on occasions when voting is particularly hard to decide like this game, i probably didnt consider the impact 4 goals have on a low scoring game.
Swallow 33 disposals
1 Goal
9 Tackles
9 clearences
15 Contesed Posessions
5 Inside 50's
175 points
Simpson 24 disposals
2 Behinds
2 contested marks
3 Tackles
2 Clearences
10 Contested Posessions
10 inside 50's
126 Points
Gibbs 20 disposals
4 Goals
2 behinds
9 tackles
6 Contested posessions
4 inside 50's
124 Points
ok thought id do an analysis on the season so far like i mentioned before:
Best 3 game streak: N. Dal Santo (Rd's 15-17) & D. Thomas (Rd's 9-11) 8 votes
Best 5 game streak: N. Dal Santo 13 votes (Rd's 15-19)
Best 10 game streak: S. Mitchell 19 votes (Rd's 11-19)
Best from Rd's:
1-5: C. Judd & J. Watson 10 votes
6-10: J. Selwood 9 votes
11-15: Mitchell 10 votes
16-19: Dal Santo 10 votes
Best first 10 rounds: C. Judd 17 votes
Best second 10 rounds (9 so far): S. Mitchell 19 votes
Most Games Polling: C. Judd (26 votes) & S. Pendlebury (25 votes) 12
Most 3's: C. Judd (26 votes) & S. Mitchell (26 votes) 6
Most 2's: M. Murphy (23 votes) 8
Most 1's: D. Cox (17 votes) 5
Quote from: Usman on August 01, 2011, 11:22:41 PM
I have been waiting for someone to challenge me. Finally. This is how i see it, particularly hard game this one with judd collecting 16 disposals in the second half and Murphy and Yarran playing very well also. when i cant pick i go purely on my scoring system and this is the votes it spat out i have changed votes mid week before on occasions when voting is particularly hard to decide like this game, i probably didnt consider the impact 4 goals have on a low scoring game.
Swallow 33 disposals
1 Goal
9 Tackles
9 clearences
15 Contesed Posessions
5 Inside 50's
175 points
Simpson 24 disposals
2 Behinds
2 contested marks
3 Tackles
2 Clearences
10 Contested Posessions
10 inside 50's
126 Points
Gibbs 20 disposals
4 Goals
2 behinds
9 tackles
6 Contested posessions
4 inside 50's
124 Points
Gibbs 4 goal impact in a low scoring game has not been taken into consideration. Statistically once could say if Gibbs did not play we would have lost as Walker, and out entire forward line was playing like crap and would not kick a winning score if gibbsy didnt contribute but thereoretically it may have been a completely different ball game if Bryce didnt play, but we'll never know.
A player can have 35disposals, 5 tackles 5 inside 50's 5 clearances but if his 35 posessions were all ineffective and did not make a "superstar-impact on the game" then it doesn't count..35 disposals verses a 4.2 goal performance very very hard. Im not saying swallow wont get the 3 votes, I'm just sayin Bryce Gibbs will more certainly poll at least 2 votes in the game..If he doesn't poll 2, the brownlow is rigged just like when the Blues got pumelled by the Pies last year and Judd got the 3 votes. Im a blues supporter, call me biased or whatever you want, but theres no way he deserved 3 votes in a smashing, its cause of the Chris Judd factor which sort of makes these medals sort of biased/unfair in a way if you ask me...
QuoteGibbs 4 goal impact in a low scoring game has not been taken into consideration. Statistically once could say if Gibbs did not play we would have lost as Walker, and out entire forward line was playing like crap and would not kick a winning score if gibbsy didnt contribute but thereoretically it may have been a completely different ball game if Bryce didnt play, but we'll never know.
A player can have 35disposals, 5 tackles 5 inside 50's 5 clearances but if his 35 posessions were all ineffective and did not make a "superstar-impact on the game" then it doesn't count..35 disposals verses a 4.2 goal performance very very hard. Im not saying swallow wont get the 3 votes, I'm just sayin Bryce Gibbs will more certainly poll at least 2 votes in the game..If he doesn't poll 2, the brownlow is rigged just like when the Blues got pumelled by the Pies last year and Judd got the 3 votes. Im a blues supporter, call me biased or whatever you want, but theres no way he deserved 3 votes in a smashing, its cause of the Chris Judd factor which sort of makes these medals sort of biased/unfair in a way if you ask me...
I have since changed my votes to Swallow 3 Gibbs 2 Simpson 1 and fully agree he deserves the 2 as i watched the game and he was sensational. but i flew through my votes for the last 2 weeks and didnt double check before i posted to see if the all looked good.
However, it is not fair to say Judd did not deserve 3 votes because it was in a smashing. Just because Carlton lost the game doesnt mean Judd wasnt Best on Ground Lets not forget Judd had 37 touches in that game (6 more than any other player) aswell as 18 contested possessions (4 more than any other player) 11 Clearances (4 more than any other player) and 10 inside 50's (4 more than any pther player) this is one man beating every other player on the field in all those areas and he doesnt deserve the 3?? stupidly i put Swan down as the 3 because Collingwood won by so much, but you look back on my scoring and think how could i do that. Judd scored 195 and Swan 147 thats a huge differece and i think Judd fully deserved the 3 against Collingwood last year but i put down Swan for the 3 purley beacause they won. MISTAKE.
Personal Opinion. I believe that that the three brownlow votes should go to the person that won the game for that side. So although Judd got all that ball, did he do enough to even get carlton cclose to winning the game, no. Therefore heshouldn't get the three votes because he didn't turn the game in his favour.
QuotePersonal Opinion. I believe that that the three brownlow votes should go to the person that won the game for that side. So although Judd got all that ball, did he do enough to even get carlton cclose to winning the game, no. Therefore heshouldn't get the three votes because he didn't turn the game in his favour.
its a team sport though and Judds team was not good enough to get close not Judd himself. One player cannot win/lose a game for his team as much as that cliche' is used in the media
@ Usman
As a huge fan and beleiver of this thread, i have in the last 8 weeks parted way with the little coin i have on the brownlow market. If all goes well following is the returns i will be getting.
Judd Pendles quinella = $ 325.
Judd win = $494
Judd v Pendles h2h @ evens with a freind = $50.
If they hit pm me with an address and a bottle of Johnny black on it's way.
KORZA
QuoteJudd Pendles quinella = $ 325.
Judd win = $494
Judd v Pendles h2h @ evens with a freind = $50.
If they hit pm me with an address and a bottle of Johnny black on it's way.
Oh God feeling the pressure now. haha
BUT quality bets. if there are 2 players that i am most confident on it is them 2. GOOD LUCK and thankyou.
Round 18
StK v Adel
3 Milne
2 Dal Santo
1 Schnieder
BL v Kang
3 Black
2 Bastinac
1 Petrie
Syd v WB
3 Goodes
2 Jack
1 Bird
Coll v GC
3 Pendlebury
2 Ball
1 Ablett
Carl v Ess
3 Judd
2 Betts
1 Murphy
Geel v Rich
3 Christensen
2 Cotchin
1 Scarlett
Haw v Melb
3 Sewell
2 Mitchell
1 Franklin
WCE v Fre
3 Cox
2 Shuey
1 Barlow
Round 19
Kang v Carl
3 Gibbs
2 Swallow
1 Yarran
WCE v WB
3 Cox
2 Boyd
1 Priddis
Geel v Melb
3 Johnson
2 Selwood
1 Corey
Haw v Fre
3 Mitchell
2 Sewell
1 Fyfe
StK v GC
3 Dal Santo
2 Goddard
1 Ablett
Coll v Ess
3 Swan
2 Pendlebury
1 Fasolo
Adel v Port
3 Vince
2 Van Berlo
1 Sloane
Leaderboard
25 Pendlebury
23-24 Judd
23-24 Mitchell*
19-20 Murphy
19 Ablett
18-19 Boyd
18-19 Cox
17-18 Selwood*
16-17Goodes
16 Priddis
16 Dal Santo
*Denotes ineligable
Its come to that time of the year, of the early stage betting if you have not done so already.... if you want to chuck a quick bet down now is the time to do so...With Usman delivering his brownlow scoring on his very effective scoring system and also with another resource in my votes as well, you can gage a sense of different opinions and with the similairities and differences noted, one can make a good bet if they can see it...
Korza those are some good bets, what betting agency did u use?
With carlton having one more bye, hawthorn having a easy run home and pendles and swan will be stroking votes from each other it will be a nail biting finish...I don't think team most votes are up yet, but if you want to get on before this weekend starts the bet of the week is for Pendlebury to place in this years brownlow @2.50...Reasons why: He polled well last year with 21 votes and with swan down in form early on in the season, only daisy can take votes from him...Its how he finishes the season of that will determine everything but by then his odds would have shortened. Chris Judd is in ripping form but the question is marc murphy steped up into an elite class of midfielders this year and will he steal votes from chris judd, or will he always settled behind Judd for the 2 votes? He only polled 5 votes last year but has a much better season this year...Get on Pendles before it's too late thats what i say...
Aside from that does anybody know, Usman ossie 85, korza anyone... to bet on someone to get place such as pendlebury, does an ineligible player include in the placings? For example i put $100 on pendles to place but at the end of round 24 the brownlow leaderboard stands at lets say Judd, Mitchell, Murphy and Pendlebury...Since Mitchell is ineligible do i still win my bet or not as place is top 3?
@ Madskill
For example i put $100 on pendles to place but at the end of round 24 the brownlow leaderboard stands at lets say Judd, Mitchell, Murphy and Pendlebury...Since Mitchell is ineligible do i still win my bet or not as place is top 3?
Collect my freind.
In other words go do that bet ;) ;D
Jumping in a bit late, but personally, I dislike how the brownlow votes (generally) go to the members of the winning team- it's not a team medal, or team competition, so if someone in a poor team that g ets smashed by 100 points plays a blinder and basically carries their team preventing a meblourne style loss of last week, then they deserve the 3 if they out played others on the winning team.
QuoteJumping in a bit late, but personally, I dislike how the brownlow votes (generally) go to the members of the winning team- it's not a team medal, or team competition, so if someone in a poor team that g ets smashed by 100 points plays a blinder and basically carries their team preventing a meblourne style loss of last week, then they deserve the 3 if they out played others on the winning team.
Agreed. Footy is a team sort but the brownlow is based on individual brilliance only. The best player no matter what the result should get the 3
I havnt done an analysis (i will soon from last years resuts) but quite a bit the umps dont give the three to a player from the winning team and thats the way it should be. if they think someone from a losing team was slightly better than a player from the winning team they should get the 3
Ok bored at work!!!!
Crutched some odds last night (centrebet have most team votes up but can't multi and last year TAb were pretty much the same odds but allow the multis)
Players and teams where its too hard too call at the moment and could go either way i believe (but thats were value lyes):
Fyfe/Pavlich... this one i have no idea
Martin/Cotchin... reckon Martin
Swallow/Wells/Goldstein... remaining 5 games should give better sight here
Port Adelaide... stay well away!!!!!
Okeefe/Goodes... cmon Goodes finsish the yr off strong like you always do
Priddis/cox.... Def hedge your bets here!
Now the players i believe are the locks so far (and odds seem to reflect this):
Boyd can't lose
Dal Santo his too lose but Goddard would have to kill the rest of the year
Moloney can't lose
Mitchell can't lose
Selwood pretty much safe, would have to have shot games and Johnson wouls have to tear it apart
Watson Watch Zakaharas but i would say Watson is a lock
Pendles his to lose, but if that was the case it would be very obv to the punter
Judd mmmmm, prob last lock this one only because of the Murphy factor (again in 5 rds would know for sure)
Black just keep same form up and will have it, again this should be obv with only 5 rds left
Thompson can't lose
theres a 10 max leg multi right there and the odds for this atm if you could multi is 33/1
i reckon i would lay quite a bit on that! need to out do last years effort ;)
How about Griffen the Dogs? He has been quiet lately, but reckon he could be All-Aus this year
Great spot Hippo didnt know they had come out yet cant wait to get into it more money to be made ;D (im not a addicted gambler by the way ::))
Griffen could pose a problem but boyd should be safe
Okeefe at $5.00 good odds wish we could multi >:(
Quote from: ossie85 on August 04, 2011, 04:12:16 PM
How about Griffen the Dogs? He has been quiet lately, but reckon he could be All-Aus this year
Na i don't think so
The highest he has polled in his career in a single year is 10
Boyd has polled over 10 in the last 3 years: 2008 12 votes, 2009 14 votes, 2010 20 votes.... see a pattern here!?
I think Boyd is having his best year to date
add the captaincy of this year to the pros of Boyd
and i think he will poll in a few losing games also ala last week with 40d
and 2 games Griffen is expected to maybe poll 3 in are games were he has to beat Boyd
rd2 Griffen 33d 4t 3goals
rd2 Boyd 32d 3t 2goals
rd14 Griffen 28d 5t 3goals
rd14 Boyd 39d 5t
pt being the main games Griffen is expected to get 3's or 2's are the same games Boyd is expected to get 3's or 2's... then theres Boyds other 35+ games.....
Boyd has this
should have it but Bod looks like shower when he had the ball and Griffen is classy and runs and carry's alot more. griffen also gets his ball in teh foward half alot more than boyd which could make a difference
i have Boyd comfortably in my voting over Griffen, but Griffen is exactly the type of player that can go under my systems radar at times outside smooth midfielder cant measure class in the stats unfortunately
i with you though boyd should definately get most votes at WB
Yeah i think so
so much so i will have him in every singe bet i place this year
Last year i took a big gamble and used 7 in 100% of bets... this year i think its even more obv of who to pick
I have boyd on 20 and Griffen on 13 i have not done a full analysis on Griffen just yet as i only keep an up to date analysis of my top ~15 and he is literallly the next player in line to get on so i will do it by seasons end. Here is the good and bad news for Boyd.
The Good
He has 4 games polling 3's and 4 polling 2's. (studies from last year that i have completed show that 3 votes are by far the easiest to predict with a strike rate above 80% and im not 100% sure but i dont think there was an ocassion last year when i gave 3 to a player and he didnt actually poll. For obvious reasons one votes are the hardest to predict as there are usually so many players that can get it in the umps eyes i guess.)
In my personal opinion he has had an even better year than last year when he polled 20 votes for a top 6 finish.
The Bad
10 votes in losing games. Nearly all have his best games have been in losing games, and every other game he is competing with griffen for the 3. lets hope the umps give the votes to the Best players on the ground not the players from the winning team for Boyd's and your betting sake.
Loss v Fre 3 votes
Loss v Syd 2 votes
Loss v StK 3 votes
Loss v WCE 2 votes
Judd's powering towards another 3 today, UNBELEIVABLE! will put him on 29 for the year
Sportsbet has already paid out to people who backed Judd to win the Brownlow!! :o
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/sportsbetcomau-pays-out-on-chris-judd-brownlow/story-e6frf9jf-1226110940877 (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/sportsbetcomau-pays-out-on-chris-judd-brownlow/story-e6frf9jf-1226110940877)
How ridicolous! Just a marketing strategy.
I remember they paid out on Tiger Woods after day 3 of a golf tournament and he lost
They also paid out the wooden spoon last year for the tigers.
so perhaps get ur bets on others ftw ;)
Didn't they also pay out for Gold Coast finishing bottom?
Quote from: CrowsFan on August 08, 2011, 04:33:10 PM
Didn't they also pay out for Gold Coast finishing bottom?
Yeah I am quite sure they did after they got thumped by like Essendon or something, reeeeeeeaaaaalllly early in the season!!!!
really interested to see how Mitchell polls in the brownlow this year. has been I'n ridiculous for this season. almost every win barring a couple of early games from hawthorn he has been a standout best. i no he can't win and will be a hard task to get close to juddy but imagine if he won and was dq'd for a bloody reprimand. what an embarrassment that would be to the stupid joke of a system the call the match review panel.
Quote from: Spite on August 08, 2011, 11:34:31 PM
Quote from: CrowsFan on August 08, 2011, 04:33:10 PM
Didn't they also pay out for Gold Coast finishing bottom?
Yeah I am quite sure they did after they got thumped by like Essendon or something, reeeeeeeaaaaalllly early in the season!!!!
i wish they had an optino for GC not to finsh bottom. As soon as they paid that out i wanted ot bet against it.
Usman's Rd 20 votes
StK v Fre
3 Dal santo
2 Mzungu
1 Koschitzke
Geel v GC
3 Johnson
2 Selwood
1 Christensen
Carl v Melb
3 Judd
2 Gibbs
1 Scotland
Coll v Port
3 Beams
2 Swan
1 Blair
Ess v Syd
3 Goodes
2 Watson
1 Ryder
Adel v BL
3 Thompson
2 Rockliff
1 Van Berlo
Haw v Kang
3 Ziebell
2 Mitchell
1 Sewell
WCE v Rich
3 Natanui
2 Shuey
1 Kerr
Usman's Leaderboard
29 Judd
28 Mitchell
25 Pendlebury
23 Murphy
22 Dal Santo
20 Boyd
19 Ablett
19 Thomas
19 Selwood
18 Priddis
18 Swan
*Denotes ineligable
Hey Usman i think yo have the Pies and the Hawks game wrong somewhat
as much as i want Pendles too poll i don't think he will, change Pendles too Blair and i think that would be right
I did not watch the game but whats the reasoning for Zeibell to get the 3 votes? McMahon had more possies and 8 marks.... Z had 0 marks + the 3 votes will come from Hawks... i think he would get 2 MAX
i agree with the rest
there are a lot of high polling players in my predicted medal count this year but its hard to argue against why they should poll any lower. of the top 5 all Judd, Mitchell, Pendlebury, Murphy and Dal Santo have had stellar seasons and all have at least one season of promising polling history.
Judd:
has polled 30 twice in his career both times taking home the Brownlow and he seems set to do this again with a season few could argue as his best. Last year he missed 3 games through suspension and still polled 30 this year he has been even better and Carlton have won more games, why shouldnt he poll as highly or even higher than last year.
Mitchell:
Cant win it due to a reprimand earlier in the year that cost him brownlow eligability. Many beleive the umps wont give him votes cause they know he cant win it. I say you have to give him the votes if he was in the best 3 on the field and that he has been regularly. Arguably Hawthorns best season since his career began and he has polled 13 or more votes for the last 5 seasons in a row. He is a machine and will finish in the top 5 this season its weird to say but hopefully he doesnt poll anymore or he could be moaning WHAT IF!! ...... (the match review panel werent so stupid) on brownlow night.
Pendlebury:
Polled 21 votes last year. This year however Collingwood have been even more dominant, and he has not had to contend with the same Swan as last year. I have him polling on 12 seperate occasions beaten only by Judd's 13 ocassions. Why Shouldnt he poll higher than ever?
Murphy:
started the season SO well, i was almost convinced he was going to win by round 13 were he had 22 votes. Since then he has polled only one vote in the last 7 rounds and has a bye coming up (with Judd) which makes it hard for him to come back and win it. but should almost be garuanteed a top 5 finish despite this. Carlton has had by far tis best season in his career and he was able to poll 15 votes in 09 when Carlton won 13 games. A very interesting stat from this years predictions is he has only 2 (3) votes, the lowest of any of the top 16 players. However he does have by far the most 2 votes with a total of 8 3 more than any other player. For those on the Murphy Bandwagon im not sure if this is a good thing or not, 2's can mean he could poll even higher than i predicted or he has been good but may poll less or not at all, as 2 votes are harder to predict than 3 votes.
Dal Santo:
A traditionally high poller Dal Santo has polled over 16 votes on three ocassions with a high of 18 in 05 for a top 3 finish. hes form in the last 11 has been nothing short of exeptional polling a potential 20 votes in this time. For me he is the main reason St Kilda have found winning form. one upside for Dal Santo this year is most of St kildas stars have not been playing well as well as Lenny Hayes being out for the entire season, meaning he is winning games of his own classy boots and is coming home like a rocket just like his team. Expect him to be a late bolter and if he and St Kilda keep up this form anything could happen currently in the beest form ever over the past 6 rounds if my predictions come true, with 16 votes from the last 6 rounds. ASTONISHING.
QuoteHey Usman i think yo have the Pies and the Hawks game wrong somewhat
as much as i want Pendles too poll i don't think he will, change Pendles too Blair and i think that would be right
I did not watch the game but whats the reasoning for Zeibell to get the 3 votes? McMahon had more possies and 8 marks.... Z had 0 marks + the 3 votes will come from Hawks... i think he would get 2 MAX
I only watched a small portion of the Hawthorn v Kang game (10 mins) so i had to go by my scoring and Ziebell was easily the highest scorer with 191 over Mitchells 158. How you ask? Ziebells 13 clearences says it all. 13 times he cleared the ball from a pack under the umps noses. as for Mcmahon he was next in line for votes actually equal with 121 with sewell i gave it too sewell basically because he played for Hawthorn and they won and i had already given the 3 to Ziebell (but dont tell anyone that ;)) Mcmahons 8 marks are misleading only 2 were contested and because i didnt see the game i assumed they were marks running off his oppenent in the back half possibly when the Kangas were going backwards. Couldnt give him the votes even though his 183 SC score would suggest otherwise we will wait and see if it was a mistake.
the coll v Port game needs to be adjusted unfortuanately for you pendles supporters (me ::)). Blair's 4 goals are probably going to get him over the line i had originally put pendles down with the 1 but then changed it to Blair on another part of the spreadsheet but forgot to finalise it leaving pendles there SORRY GUYS my bad. Thanks everyone who has challenged the votes too, it helps me to go over the games analyse some that i may have not focused on hard enough. Usually i have reasoning this time it was an error on my behalf.
Mitchell win finish a top i reckon i mite b a bit biast but so many BOGs and not many hawks week in week out would steal votes such as judd and murphy would and pendles,swan.. just rely pissed of he is inelegible :(
Madskill's Rd 20 votes
StK v Fre
3 Dal santo
2 Mzungu
1 Koschitzke
Geel v GC
3 Johnson
2 Selwood
1 Podsiadly
Carl v Melb
3 Judd
2 Scotland
1 Gibbs
Coll v Port
3 Beams
2 Swan
1 Blair
Ess v Syd
3 Goodes
2 Watson
1 Ryder
Adel v BL
3 Thompson
2 Rockliff
1 Van Berlo
Haw v Kang
3 Mitchell
2 Ziebell
1 Sewell
WCE v Rich
3 Kerr
2 Nic Nat
1 Shuey
Madskill's Leaderboard
26-27 Judd
26-27 Mitchell *
25 Pendlebury
20 Boyd
19-20 Murphy
19-20 Selwood*
19-20 Goodes
19-20 Dal Santo
18-19 Cox
18 Ablett
18 Swan
*Denotes ineligable
Apparently, Champion Data released their brownlow predictions.
All I know is according to their data Judd is leading on 24, Pendles on 23 and their is a distant gap with Swan and Cox rounding the top 4 out...
If anyone could find the results of the top 10 leaders according to Champion Data, please post them in the discussion. Thanks
P.S- Like I said a couple of posts ago, if you haven't got onto it. Pendles. Place. 2011 Brownlow. Get on it, before its tooo late!!!
QuoteApparently, Champion Data released their brownlow predictions.
All I know is according to their data Judd is leading on 24, Pendles on 23 and their is a distant gap with Swan and Cox rounding the top 4 out...
If anyone could find the results of the top 10 leaders according to Champion Data, please post them in the discussion. Thanks
P.S- Like I said a couple of posts ago, if you haven't got onto it. Pendles. Place. 2011 Brownlow. Get on it, before its tooo late!!!
I saw that, not sure if i agree with thier system though. They give more than 3 people votes per game depending on thier polling history etc... For eg 2.7 for best on 2.2 for the second best etc??? i dont really know how they figure it out it seems wierd though. i know their top 4 was Judd 24 Pendles 23 and Cox and Swan were 16 but dont know the rest either
put your house on pendles to finish top 3 i reckon
Quote from: Usman on August 10, 2011, 09:33:53 PM
QuoteApparently, Champion Data released their brownlow predictions.
All I know is according to their data Judd is leading on 24, Pendles on 23 and their is a distant gap with Swan and Cox rounding the top 4 out...
If anyone could find the results of the top 10 leaders according to Champion Data, please post them in the discussion. Thanks
P.S- Like I said a couple of posts ago, if you haven't got onto it. Pendles. Place. 2011 Brownlow. Get on it, before its tooo late!!!
I saw that, not sure if i agree with thier system though. They give more than 3 people votes per game depending on thier polling history etc... For eg 2.7 for best on 2.2 for the second best etc??? i dont really know how they figure it out it seems wierd though. i know their top 4 was Judd 24 Pendles 23 and Cox and Swan were 16 but dont know the rest either
put your house on pendles to finish top 3 i reckon
theres an article on afl.com.au about pendles may get rested, its all speculation he may he may not, so thats the only thing but take into account that mitchell is ineligible, judd has a bye to come, the only who could come close is boyd,murphy,dal santo and goodes..
i dont see any other profitable bet to be honest,with the amount of deadset certainties for team votes there wont be much value unless you put in port/north/rich in there...like money will be won there no doubt but not as much as for place i reckon...
at this stage who do we all think will finish top 5 (can include ineligible candidates as well)?
1-5 I'n no particular order
pendles
judd
mitchell
dal santo
murphy
really love the work usman and madskill! i went and chucked a couple of hundys on Pendles for a place today. this next 6-7 weeks is gonna feel like forever now! haha
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,42618.0.html
Guys might be interested in this
Geelong has only lost 2 games, could there be a smokey there or just the fact that with Selwood being injured and suspended. That the votes will be shared around. Maybe stevie j as a smokie?
Round 21
Stk v Coll
3 Davis
2 Swan
1 Montagna
Carl v Fre
3 Judd
2 Gibbs
1 Walker
Haw v Port
3 Rioli
2 Franklin
1 Shiels
Ess v WB
3 Stanton
2 Boyd
1 Watson
BL v GC
3 Black
2 Luenberger
1 Rockliff
Melb v WCE
3 Priddis
2 Cox
1 Gaff
Rich v Syd
3 Cotchin
2 Houli
1 Deledio
Adel v Geel
3 Sloane
2 Corey
1 Knights
Usman's Leaderboard
32 Judd
28 Mitchell
25 Pendlebury
23 Murphy
22 Dal Santo
22 Boyd
21 Priddis
20 Swan
19 Ablett
19 Cox
19 Thomas
19 Selwood
Club's Leaderboard
Adelaide
14 Thompson
5 Vince
4 Dangerfield
4 Van Berlo
3 Sloane
3 Rielly
1 Johncock
1 Knights
Total 35
Brisbane
15 Black
5 Rockliff
4 Brown
3 Redden
3 Power
2 Lueunberger
2 Clark
1 Rich
Total 35
Carlton
32 Judd
23 Murphy
11 Gibbs
6 Robinson
4 Walker
3 Scotland
3 Betts
2 Carrazzo
2 Kruezer
1 Simpson
Total 87
Collingwood
25 Pendelbury
20 Swan
19 Thomas
7 Cloke
5 Davis
4 Beams
4 Blair
3 Sidebottom
3 Shaw
3 Wellingham
3 Ball
2 Krakour
1 Dawes
1 Fasolo
Total 100
Essendon
18 Watson
6 Hocking
6 Stanton
4 Zaharakis
3 Monfries
3 Reimers
3 Melksham
2 Howlett
2 Myers
2 Bellchambers
1 Hille
1 Crameri
1 Lonergan
1 Ryder
1 Mcveigh
Total 54
Fremantle
15 Fyfe
13 Pavlich
5 Lower
4 Sandilands
3 Mundy
2 Ballantyne
2 Griffin
2 Mzungu
1 Mcpharlin
1 Broughton
1 Barlow
Total 49
Geelong
19 Selwood
12 Johnson
9 Bartel
9 Corey
6 Kelly
6 Enright
6 Chapman
6 Podsiadly
5 Stokes
5 Christensen
2 Ling
2 Ottens
1 Wojcinski
Total 88
Gold Coast
19 Ablett
5 Rischitelli
5 Brennan
1 Swallow
1 Iles
Total 32
Hawthorn
28 Mitchell
14 Hodge
14 Franklin
7 Rioli
6 Sewell
3 Savage
3 Suckling
3 Lewis
3 Guerra
3 Birchall
3 Shiels
2 Burgouyne
Total 83
North Melbourne
17 Swallow
10 Wells
9 Ziebell
8 Petrie
7 Goldstien
6 Harvey
1 Rawlings
1 Edwards
1 Bastinac
Total 60
Melbourne
15 Moloney
4 Sylvia
4 Trengove
4 Martin
3 Pettard
3 Green
3 Jamar
3 McKenzie
3 Watts
1 Maric
Total 43
Port Adelaide
4 Brogan
3 Schulz
3 Westoff
3 Boak
1 Gray
1 Hartlett
1 Cassisi
Total 16
Richmond
14 Cotchin
9 Martin
6 Foley
6 Deledio
2 Newman
2 Nahas
2 Houli
1 Riewoldt
Total 42
St Kilda
22 Dal Santo
12 Montagna
8 Goddard
5 Milne
3 Schnieder
2 Hayes
2 Armitage
2 Riewoldt
1 Mcevoy
1 Koschitzke
Total 58
Sydney
14 Goodes
13 Bolton
13 Okeefe
6 Kennedy
3 Seaby
3 Mcveigh
2 Mumford
2 Mcglynn
2 Jack
Total 58
Western Bulldogs
22 Boyd
13 Griffen
6 Ward
4 Gian
3 Higgins
3 Cooney
1 Gilbee
Total 52
West Coast
21 Priddis
19 Cox
8 Shuey
6 Embley
6 Kerr
5 Lecras
3 Natanui
3 Kennedy
3 Lynch
2 Hurn
1 Rosa
1 Gaff
Total 72
Quote from: Usman on August 14, 2011, 09:39:25 PM
Rich v Syd
3 Cotchin
2 Houli
1 Deledio
I disagree with this game. I was there and I saw it quite differently (not expecting you to change things, just my thoughts). I didn't have Cotchin in the best 3 at all. I had Rance in there as either getting 2 or 1 with Bachar taking the 3 and Lids either getting 2 or 1.
Probably Houli 3, Rance 2, Deledio 1. Just my 2 cents :)
All 3 were very good watched the whole thing too except not at the game (wish I was their though you lucky barbie) and they were all playmakers cotchins clearances under the noses of the umpire got him over the line.
Fair enough. Probably hard to see Rance getting votes just in a general sense anyways.
Rance will go very close to best on in richmonds b&f he didn't put a step wrong all day and stopped goodes impact when he went forward but in terms of brownlow votes it's probably not likel when those other 3 aswell as jpk were so attacking today
Yeah. I guess Brownlow votes aren't always an indication of the best players in any particular game.
It was amazing though and I'm so happy that I went ;D
thankyou Usman, for your work.. after a terrible year of betting the brownlow is my chance to get alittle back off the bookies ::)
centrebet have just started opening the markets for team votes, they only have north melbourne's up so far,but the rest will be coming soon.
they have the price at A.Swallow- $1.63
D.Wells-$3.60
D.Petrie-$8
J.Ziebell-$12
T.Goldstein-$13
B.Harvey-$34
B.Rawlings-$126
Good work once again Usman!
Upthe.... the market has been open for some time now on Centrebet, its only showing North because obv there odds don't change when they don't play.
Allot of teams are set in stone now with my eyes closely watching:
Goodes... as long as ROK doesnt get another BOG he will have his imo
Fyfe/Pav... looking more and more likely that you will DEF have to hedge your bets here
Port.... If they lose the remaining games in the same style i will have a go at Westhoff on a couple of multis but thats it...too many players to cover
Cotchen/Martin... will be one of these 2 but too hard to tell and 2 dangerous too leave one out, Hedge here too!
Priddis/Cox... " same same as above "
North... Swallow in a couple but not really interested in Hedging him
Is this similier to others mindsets with the teams???
oh ok hippo,, i dont check it to often and it wasnt there last time i looked. i will probably bet with TAB anyhow and they dont have team odds up yet.
are there any really good odds on any of the favourites? i remember Boyd being a great price last year
Quote from: upthemaidens on August 15, 2011, 11:35:31 AM
oh ok hippo,, i dont check it to often and it wasnt there last time i looked. i will probably bet with TAB anyhow and they dont have team odds up yet.
are there any really good odds on any of the favourites? i remember Boyd being a great price last year
unfortunatly there are no good odds on the favs!
last week if you put the top 10 favs together (leaving Ablett out) it was 15/1, so yeah the odds reflect there chances.
Last year TAB opened the market on the Wed after rd22 if my memory serves me correctly.
Another thing worth noting is TAB have upped there mutlis to 20 legs 2 weeks ago... last year 10 was the max, this has come at a great time as i see 10 locks to be placed in every single bet and then working upto 15 legs
Most of the teams are indeed set in stone but the ones you mentioned:
Goodes should win it, with his recent polling history and hard finish to the year he should beat okeefe.
Fyfe and Pav will be dead eye dick...whoever finished the season off better and polls the minor votes will win the chocolates. id hedge my way close to fyfe.
Port...pretty much a lottery btw brogan, westhoff and boak...outside chance hartlett but just see odds here..
Cotchin should have a slight buffer over Martin.
Priddis/Cox...Everyone's put off by the fact that big ruckmen cant score well or are basing their judgements on big Cox's poor brownlow count last year with 2 votes out of 22 games..But you have to remember Cox is playing 10x better this year than last year..Its going to be touch and go here...Usman has 21 to priddis, 19 to cox...i have cox on 21 and priddis on 18..
North should go to swallow but still unclear between him, wells and goldstein imo...
Quote from: Hippo on August 15, 2011, 11:41:50 AM
Another thing worth noting is TAB have upped there mutlis to 20 legs 2 weeks ago... last year 10 was the max, this has come at a great time as i see 10 locks to be placed in every single bet and then working upto 15 legs
Awesome, where does it say that?
Quote from: Hippo on August 15, 2011, 11:41:50 AM
Quote from: upthemaidens on August 15, 2011, 11:35:31 AM
oh ok hippo,, i dont check it to often and it wasnt there last time i looked. i will probably bet with TAB anyhow and they dont have team odds up yet.
are there any really good odds on any of the favourites? i remember Boyd being a great price last year
unfortunatly there are no good odds on the favs!
last week if you put the top 10 favs together (leaving Ablett out) it was 15/1, so yeah the odds reflect there chances.
Last year TAB opened the market on the Wed after rd22 if my memory serves me correctly.
Another thing worth noting is TAB have upped there mutlis to 20 legs 2 weeks ago... last year 10 was the max, this has come at a great time as i see 10 locks to be placed in every single bet and then working upto 15 legs
would that 10-way multi. be adel,bris,carl,ess,geel,haw,north,mel,stk,wb ?
generally i try to stay away from multi's and just put larger wages on single bets, but may have to change my thinking for this year
my tip for port is westhoff
Awesome, where does it say that?
[/quote]
i get emails from TAB and this was on it last week:
Stretch your Multi to 20 legs!
We've doubled the number of legs you can have in a Multi from ten to twenty. What's more, racing fans will be delighted to hear they can now take a fixed odds racing treble. The twenty legger and the racing treble are only available in retail TAB outlets or via phone on 133 390.
Upthe... if you want to make good coin then def change you way of thinking and get into the multis. Put it this way i won $8.7k from a $5 multi bet last year.
Take North out of the 10 and replace with Goodes
For those thinking that the polling is fairly high i am doing a cross analysis of best and worst case scenario for each of the top 20 players on my list it takes a while so far i have done Judd with a worst case of 24 and a best case of 37 bringing his vote tally down to 30 (30.5). this is how i decide my final votes as it accounts for all possibilites. So even though i have Judd on 34 votes (32 on this thread, due to 2 games votting being altered today were i gave him one vote extra v coll rd 17 and stk rd 7) in years gone by this analysis has been far more accurate at predicting overall votes than just prediciting votes.I think we can all agree 30-31 votes is more realistic than judd getting 34 by round 21. Cant wait to post a full list of results at seasons end. Cheers
VERY INTERESTING NOTE!!
Just finished Murphy's best and worst case scenario (as it was easy to do alongside Judd's) and it has moved his tally UP to 27!!! with a worst case of 19 and a best of 35 :o. first time ever someone's tally has gone up after using this method. A top 3 bet may provide some value here.
out of interest usman do you take into account umpire relationships with a particular player when giving your votes?
i.e. black being a umpires pet compared to lets say milne who is just an arsehole :)
or do you just go on the stats as they stand
and again thankyou on your work
the stats are usually a good indicator and i watch games when i can to get the best idea of who should get votes. in terms of player relationships i wouldnt say that the umpires love the players characteristics its more how good they look to them in terms of playing ability. Because players like Black and Goodes always seem to poll in matches were it might have been a surpirse, i always check to see if their scores are close (within 10 points) to those that on my system is close to others that 'should' poll and i tend to put these players ahead. On the weekend officials at the Q clash did the hard work for me giving Black BOG when he probably didnt deserve it through my scoring system, but thats the sort of player he is, eye catching and classy.
here is an up to date leaderboard with both my progressive votes that i have posted on this thread and the votes analysed with best and worst case scenario then re-adjusted. (for the record i use the adjusted votes for the final count but i wait till the end of the year to do it in baulk as its easier) the left column of votes is the adjusted compared to the right column which the leaderboard from this thread. (On the Thread votes You may notice a few changes like Murphy going from 23 votes to 25 this is because when re-analysing each game i have awarded him 1 vote more in 2 seperate games where i felt he deserved it.
Adjusted Thread
Judd 32 34
Mitchell 29 29
Murphy 26 25
Pendlebury 25 25
Dal Santo 21 22
Boyd 21 21
Swan 21 20
Priddis 19 21
Ablett 19 19
Selwood 19 19
Thomas 17 18
Cox 16 19
Great work Usman and the mad one.
So what i got out of the wend just briefly is:
• Pendles is no longer a lock, Swan keeps on keeping on
• Goodes is now a lock after a massive last qtr
• Swallow is looking better and better each week, one more of those games and imo he is a lock
• Another polling game too Priddis.
• S Thompson is a freak
• Boyd cannot lose his team votes
• Martin and Cotchen could be neck and neck now
Summed it up well hippo I'll have the votes up by tomorrow. If pendles get rested it could be a worry but I'm still fairly confident he will beat swan
centrebet have thompson at $81 to win overall, doesnt that seem like a really good price?
no one at the crows to take votes off him, ofcourse adelaide didnt win many games, but still 80/1
culd make top ten dont think he is in contention for the brownlow though. he gathered 44 touches in a game last year and didnt poll from memory
Quote from: Usman on August 22, 2011, 06:33:06 PM
culd make top ten dont think he is in contention for the brownlow though. he gathered 44 touches in a game last year and didnt poll from memory
yeah i dont think he has much chance either,but sometimes the odds can be to tempting ;D
i did back brad johnson a few years back to get top 3, he was at like $501 or something massive....
...he ended up not polling any votes lol
nah i think judd will take it out, just like to see if theres some good odds.
maybe top 3 i'll drop a penny on thompson and dal santo, other than that stick to team and group votes
i have not checked this week but priddis was $21 to place last week. You never know?
Some nice work above
Gee its going to be a year for the big outlayer though IMO. (Quite) Alot of the team winners are already well below $1.40 and if they get anymore BOG's, then the value will keep deteriating. Still value in the teams with it between 2 but cant see it being quite like last year which is fine if the locks all come in :(
Quote from: bisazc887 on August 23, 2011, 02:25:39 PM
Some nice work above
Gee its going to be a year for the big outlayer though IMO. (Quite) Alot of the team winners are already well below $1.40 and if they get anymore BOG's, then the value will keep deteriating. Still value in the teams with it between 2 but cant see it being quite like last year which is fine if the locks all come in :(
there might be some good value in group bets,, a couple of years ago when mitch clarke had a good season, he was in a group of 2nd string rucks; like hille,ottens(them type) and he was around $3.. that was a good bet, pity i didnt put more on it
Round 21
Stk v Coll
3 Davis
2 Swan
1 Montagna
Carl v Fre
3 Judd
2 Gibbs
1 Betts
Haw v Port
3 Rioli
2 Franklin
1 Mitchell
Ess v WB
3 Stanton
2 Hurley
1 Ryder
BL v GC
3 Black
2 Leurenberger
1 Rockliff
Melb v WCE
3 Embley
2 Priddis
1 Gaff
Rich v Syd
3 Houli
2 Cotchin
1 Deledio
Adel v Geel
3 Sloane
2 Kelly
1 Corey
Round 22
Carl Vs Hawks
3 Lewis
2 Simpson
1 Gibson
GC Vs Ade
3 Thompson
2 Jacobs
1 Ablett
WC Vs Ess
3 Kerr
2 Kennedy
1 Shuey (maybe Priddis here)
Coll Vs Bris
3 Swan
2 Cloke
1 Rockcliff
NM VS Freo
3 Swallow
2 Harvey
1 Wells
Syd Vs Stk
3 Mumford
2 Goodes
1 Shaw
Port Vs WB
3 Boyd
2 Tutt
1 Hall
Melb Vs Rich
3 Sylvia
2 Martin
1 Foley
Leaderboard
judd 29-30
mitchell 28
pendles 25
swan 23
boyd 22
murphy 21-22
goodes 20-21
ablett 19-20
selwood 19
dal santo 19
cox 18-19
thompson 18
priddis 17-18
Like Usman, Im doing a range for best case and worst case scenario for most of the top place getters and here is what ive come up with so far... I think 2nd and 3rd will finish between pendles, murphy, swan and boyd imo
Eg...Usman 20-35 (28) * First number relates to the minimum amount of votes this player can poll whilst the second number relates to the maximum number of votes. The number in the bracket is the average of the numbers (so what the player should be roughly on)
LEADERBOARD
Judd 26-36 (31)
Mitchell 23- 32 (28)
Pendles 20-31 (26)
Swan 18-29 (24)
Boyd 19-27 (23)
Murphy 16-28 (22)
Ablett 15-25 (20)
Selwood 15-24 (19.5)
Priddis 15-24 (19.5)
Dal Santo 15-23 (19)
Goodes 16-22 (19)
Cox 16-21 (18.5)
Thompson 15-22 (18.5)
Sorry guys a bit late this week
Round 22
Haw v Carl
3 Lewis
2 Simpson
1 Hale
WCE v Ess
3 Kennedy
2 Priddis
1 Shuey
Adel v GC
3 Thompson
2 Ablett
1 Tippett
Kang v Fre
3 Swallow
2 Wells
1 Pederson
Coll v BL
3 Swan
2 Cloke
1 Redden
Syd v StK
3 Mumford
2 Kennedy
1 Goodes
WB v Port
3 Boyd
2 Hall
1 Tutt
Rich v Melb
3 Sylvia
2 Martin
1 Tuck
Leaderboard
32 Judd
29 Mitchell
25 Pendlebury
25 Murphy
24 Boyd
23 Priddis
23 Swan
22 Dal Santo
21 Ablett
20 Swallow
I know Sylvia had a great game, but do you think the fact that he has reported during the game will cost him votes? It is a "Best & Fairest" award and the votes do come from the umpires. Just wondering if that has affected vote getting in the past and whether or not you think it will now?
Quote from: LaHug on August 26, 2011, 10:11:21 PM
I know Sylvia had a great game, but do you think the fact that he has reported during the game will cost him votes? It is a "Best & Fairest" award and the votes do come from the umpires. Just wondering if that has affected vote getting in the past and whether or not you think it will now?
imo he was a clear standout as best on ground
maybe the umpires would side to the player who wasn't reported if it was a line ball decision, but think sylvia was easliy the best player on the field for that to make a difference
pendles or swan the 3 tonight?
Swan seemed more damaging to me and just blw the game appart at the start, yet Pendles finished with more stats....Mmm Swan for for me but you never know
swan was the game changer it seemed...
Maybe something like
3. Swan
2. Pendles
1. Krak?
Quote from: Spite on August 27, 2011, 02:11:39 AM
swan was the game changer it seemed...
Maybe something like
3. Swan
2. Pendles
1. Krak?
Aside from the fact he was subbed, I'd give Leon the 1.
its a tough one because the umps generally like Pendlebury better and so do i, and on this occassion the scoring system does aswell. Which is rare because it usually suits Swan down to the ground.
3 Pendlebury
2 Swan
1 Beams
Silly old CB seem intent on recking the odds even though they dont even allow multi-ing,...Probably there way of tring to get the punters who wiped them out 2 years ago back by determing the odds tab open at because i cant see too many putting huuuge amounts on someone 1 out at 1.05 and if they do bank interest is far less risky. Been sly in my books
Quote from: bisazc887 on August 29, 2011, 07:59:16 PM
Silly old CB seem intent on recking the odds even though they dont even allow multi-ing,...Probably there way of tring to get the punters who wiped them out 2 years ago back by determing the odds tab open at because i cant see too many putting huuuge amounts on someone 1 out at 1.05 and if they do bank interest is far less risky. Been sly in my books
who dont allow multi? all bookies?
also $1.05 or 5% would be per year for bank interest where as the bet would be per that one night, but yes would be a pretty silly bet to back someone at $1.10..
side note; i was at the port vs gold coast game this year and a punter in the bar put a $1000 bet on port to win at $1.04
so 1k to win 40 bucks,, and as we all know they lost. if u have 1k spare whats the 40 bucks gunna do? buy a steak dinner? some people have more dollars then sense
Quote from: upthemaidens on August 30, 2011, 03:29:12 PM
Quote from: bisazc887 on August 29, 2011, 07:59:16 PM
Silly old CB seem intent on recking the odds even though they dont even allow multi-ing,...Probably there way of tring to get the punters who wiped them out 2 years ago back by determing the odds tab open at because i cant see too many putting huuuge amounts on someone 1 out at 1.05 and if they do bank interest is far less risky. Been sly in my books
who dont allow multi? all bookies?
also $1.05 or 5% would be per year for bank interest where as the bet would be per that one night, but yes would be a pretty silly bet to back someone at $1.10..
side note; i was at the port vs gold coast game this year and a punter in the bar put a $1000 bet on port to win at $1.04
so 1k to win 40 bucks,, and as we all know they lost. if u have 1k spare whats the 40 bucks gunna do? buy a steak dinner? some people have more dollars then sense
They dont allow multi-s and your last line is my exact point. I can understand those odds with a agency that allows you to multi up to a bigger divy (even though you have an all up bet/risk) but for a company that offers 1 outs at those odds is going to be holding alot of $ for it to be even worth anyone having a go....Not saying the bets are unrealistic that they should be hot hot favs and yes i know if i dont like them dont bet and as i said i wont at those odds 1 out, but they are bookies odds in more ways than 1
has anyone been doing any reading/browsing over the web? other sites have said that multibets for team votes will not be happening this year over any agencies whilst otherse have said the CEO of TAB will make a decision come friday regarding the nature of being able to make multibets? Before everyone starts making their own locks and own punts, make sure they allow multibets!!!
Quote from: madskill55 on August 31, 2011, 09:24:23 PM
has anyone been doing any reading/browsing over the web? other sites have said that multibets for team votes will not be happening this year over any agencies whilst otherse have said the CEO of TAB will make a decision come friday regarding the nature of being able to make multibets? Before everyone starts making their own locks and own punts, make sure they allow multibets!!!
I reckon Tab will. Theres very few bets that they dont let you multi... No doubt they got cleaned in some of the multis last year because all favs pretty much came in (thats not always a guarentee to happen and if it didnt they would make big $),They also made a stack off everyone backing swan which would have made their bottom line a bit better. Also there are plenty on other sites that think they are rocket scientests by some of their picks (which are already sub 1.30 ::) ) and they are happy to spin garbage untill they have their bets on. Id say 90% they will,....if not there would have to be some very attractive bets for me to even look as i dont back dogs or horses at $3 so im not about to start taking $1.40 1 out
Getting through rd 23 as i form a new scoring system for next year. The system is likely to incorporate efficiency and value outliers. eg: Gibbs kicking 4 in a low scoring game against the roos this year, the 4 goals would be valued highly, as there were not many goals kicked. It will also value kicks over handballs as there is a strong correlation between efficiency and type of disposal. Im still tinkering with efficency and contested posessions as there is quite a strong correlation between a higher contested possession count meaning a lower efficiency. I am trialing the system on rd 23 results and so far its looking pretty good. This system should help defenders and outside midfielders to become more prominent in my voting which is one of the goals of establishing a new formula.
Round 23
Coll v Fre
3 Pendlebury
2 Beams
1 Swan
Haw v WB
3 Franklin
2 Bruest
1 Sewell
Geel v Syd
3 Mumford
2 Goodes
1 Mcglynn
StK v Kang
3 Riewoldt
2 Swallow
1 Milne
BL v WCE
3 Rockliff
2 Masten
1 Priddis
Rich v Adel
3 Cotchin
2 Martin
1 Vince
Melb v GC
3 Rischitelli
2 Moloney
1 Green
Ess v Port
3 Gray
2 Watson
1 Monfries
Leaderboard
32 Judd
29 Mitchell*
28 Pendlebury
25 Murphy
24 Swan
24 Priddis
24 Boyd
22 Dal Santo
22 Swallow
21 Ablett
R23
Coll v Fre
3 Pendlebury
2 Swan
1 Beams
Haw v WB
3 Hodge
2 Buddy
1 Puopolo
Geel v Syd
3 Mumford
2 Goodes
1 Mcglynn
StK v Kang
3 Goddard
2 Riedwoldt
1 Dal Santo
BL v WCE
3 Rockliff
2 Masten
1 Priddis
Rich v Adel
3 Cotchin
2 Van Berlo
1 Martin
Melb v GC
3 Garland
2 Moloney
1 Rishcitellie
Ess v Port
3 Gray
2 Zahrakis
1 Monfries
Leaderboard
judd 29-30
mitchell 28
pendles 28
swan 25
boyd 22
goodes 22-23
murphy 22
dal santo 20
ablett 19-20
selwood 19
priddis 18-19
cox 18-19
thompson 18
I hope Pendles is BOG this weekend and Judd has a stinker, so that things get very interesting!
Usman, don't want to read 23 pages to find out but what are your votes based on? stats? radio? watching the game?
Just wondering as I think your votes in the Hawks v Bulldogs game are way off the mark.
Quote from: MalteserMan on September 02, 2011, 09:20:56 AM
Usman, don't want to read 23 pages to find out but what are your votes based on? stats? radio? watching the game?
Just wondering as I think your votes in the Hawks v Bulldogs game are way off the mark.
All 3 actually, stats are usually an ok indicator so if I'm in doubt I always allow stats to pick the votes for me. Haw v WB was a particularly hard game to allocate votes. Hodge and puopolo were very very unlucky especially puopolo 27 touches with an extremely high efficiency wasn't enough to outpoll sewell's 30 inside touches with good efficiency. Bruest was an interesting one only 22 touches but 2 goals and 4 goal assits was to much scoreboard impact to ignore likewise with buddy's 20 touches with 5 goals 4 behinds. Main reasons for hodge not polling were a poor efficiency rate because other than that his stats were good, but the min reason is he has a terrible polling history.
In other words, its all bullshower. :P
QuoteIn other words, its all bullshower.
HAHA basically. Try my best but im not confident that there will be 10 players polling over 20 votes this year. FAIL. I am confident however it will be a good indicator as to who should win, place and poll well. Just maybe on a lower polling top 10 though
Your method is probably best suited to picking the B&F's at each club. The brownlow really isn't super predictable.
to be fair Usman doesnt make anyone read his thread, so if u dont like his scoring system than dont waste your time reading it.
its a guideline, ofcourse its not gunna be exact.. the umpires dont get it right either
i think Judd hasnt polled in recent weeks, needs a blinder 8)
It's who the umpires see the most. Codx and Priddis. That's why they'll come top 2 :P :P
Quote from: PowerBug on September 02, 2011, 04:07:49 PM
It's who the umpires see the most. Codx and Priddis. That's why they'll come top 2 :P :P
If its about "who the umpires see the most" then Sandy aka the "big 211" would surely be up there haha...Just see last years first 10 or so rounds, thats why sandy was up there cause the umpy could "see" him the most :P
Quote from: madskill55 on September 02, 2011, 04:45:57 PM
Quote from: PowerBug on September 02, 2011, 04:07:49 PM
It's who the umpires see the most. Codx and Priddis. That's why they'll come top 2 :P :P
If its about "who the umpires see the most" then Sandy aka the "big 211" would surely be up there haha...Just see last years first 10 or so rounds, thats why sandy was up there cause the umpy could "see" him the most :P
You know what i mean. The umps notice Them with the ball more than a Daniel Cross, coz they are giants and Priddis has long hair.
Quote from: Marcz on September 02, 2011, 04:02:05 PM
i think Judd hasnt polled in recent weeks, needs a blinder 8)
Carrazo or scotland against saints, Judd will face 1 of the 2 best taggers in the game or maybe even both :P
its impossible to predict but i have fun trying to find a scoring system that is close enough. The game has changed alot this year and contested possesions are not as valuable as they used to be with teams using the press. next years system will be altered by rewarding outside players and defenders a little more by incorporating efficiency with less emphasis on contested footy
Quote from: Usman on September 02, 2011, 08:33:00 PM
its impossible to predict but i have fun trying to find a scoring system that is close enough. The game has changed alot this year and contested possesions are not as valuable as they used to be with teams using the press. next years system will be altered by rewarding outside players and defenders a little more by incorporating efficiency with less emphasis on contested footy
Well I appreciate your work. No one is ever going to pick the 30 different umps brains, but as said above yours is a good guide at the min
Duncan and menzal doing some damage in the 2nd qtr here
DUDES lets get our brownlow form on and get some discussion going...trifecta's and quinellas are up atm so the earlier u get in the better odds u will get....what are everyones thoguths about the top 2 n top 3?
Will bite on the quinellas etc next week or just before brownlow even if it means less odds,...no limits there.
Just want to get on the tv's hard atm
Would have Goodes in the top 3 best on Ground last 5 of last 6 matches
Quote from: bisazc887 on September 02, 2011, 09:37:29 PM
Quote from: Usman on September 02, 2011, 08:33:00 PM
its impossible to predict but i have fun trying to find a scoring system that is close enough. The game has changed alot this year and contested possesions are not as valuable as they used to be with teams using the press. next years system will be altered by rewarding outside players and defenders a little more by incorporating efficiency with less emphasis on contested footy
Well I appreciate your work. No one is ever going to pick the 30 different umps brains, but as said above yours is a good guide at the min
Duncan and menzal doing some damage in the 2nd qtr here
What brains? :P
Wellif theyve given their votes the right way maybe ;D
medalist - goodes
2nd - mitchell
3rd - judd
4th - pendles
Quote from: CFC 1979 on September 05, 2011, 08:21:58 PM
medalist - goodes
2nd - mitchell
3rd - judd
4th - pendles
big big call, wouldnt disagree with you though...do you have your own count or just going on form or....?
Quote from: madskill55 on September 05, 2011, 08:35:28 PM
Quote from: CFC 1979 on September 05, 2011, 08:21:58 PM
medalist - goodes
2nd - mitchell
3rd - judd
4th - pendles
big big call, wouldnt disagree with you though...do you have your own count or just going on form or....?
I have Goodes as best on ground in 7 matches which equates to 21 points so only needs to pick up a few minors and the Medal is his and not far behind is Mitchell who i have with 5 best on ground, so would not disagree with you either CFC
I think it will end up something like this
1st: Sam Mitchell (Ineligable)
2nd: Adam Goodes
3rd: Chris Judd
4th: Dean Cox
5th: Nic Dal Santo
6th: Scott Pendlebury
7th: Matt Priddis
8th: Marc Murphy
9th: Dane Swan
10th: Scott Thompson
Down to the Tab i go to take my $ out
Even if i have a small bet which is unlikely it wont be with them...Need to make their holdings on this years only a very small % of other years if we are going to have them bring them back in future years
Lol at tabs facebook page
Ed 24 will be up tonight. Some may call me crazy but I have finalized next year's formula and I couldn't resist doing it on this years games I have finished round 8 with some interesting differences. I don't have the erupts with me but the leader after round 8 is Watson 13 and next is swan 11 it was Judd 15 and Watson 15 using this years formula from memory. Judd us actually only on 8 votes I think but comes into a rich vein of form in the coming rounds
usman will you/have you put up the final results for each team? i saw the post that up too and including rd. 21
also open question, does anyone know of a bookie thats doing multi-bets for team votes?
Full results will be up tonight sometime
Who does the Great Usman say will win the brownlow?
Find out after the break ;)
(http://www.thepunch.com.au/images/uploads/iSnack.jpg)
Eat it, trust me it's just as good as original Vegemite.
Waiting eagerly as always Usman ;)
After R24 on my votes I have:
judd 29
mitchell 28
pendles 27-28
goodes 25-26
swan 25-26
boyd 25
murphy 22-23
ablett 22
dal santo 20
moloney 20
selwood 19
priddis 19-20
cox 18
thompson 18
After going through a full re-analysis i have come up with readjusted votes:
Players Optimum Range Prediction
Judd 26-31 28
Mitchell 26-30 28
Pendles 24-29 27
Boyd 21-26 25
Goodes 22-26 24
Swan 22-26 24
Murphy 21-26 23
It all depends about the Judd/Murphy factor, Swan/Pendles/Daisy Law, can Boyd poll low to mid 20's in an unsuccessful bulldogs outfit as opposed to last year and can Goodes romp it home in the last 6 rounds with an expected 13-15 votes..??? only time will tell ladies and gentlemen....
Its finally arrived the end of the Home and Away season. Who will win the Brownlow the left number is the raw votes the right is best and worst case scenario compared to get the mean and then compared with the raw numbers to get the mean of this. The numbers are very high but the order is more important. Because of the high numbers i have strated another count using next years formula that i have been working on this year. the Results i am very happy with so far and will post full results up hopefully within the next week then we will have 3 different phantom polls on this thread thanks to mads, which should be a good gauge
Leaderboard
32 (32) Judd
29 (29) Mitchell*
28 (28) Pendlebury
27 (27) Boyd
26 (26) Murphy
24 (25) Swan
24 (24) Ablett
24 (22) Priddis
22 (--) Dal Santo
22 (--) Swallow
Adel
Thompson 20
Vince 6
Dangerfield 4
Van Berlo 4
Sloane 3
Rielly 3
Johncock 1
Knights 1
Douglas 1
Tippett 1
Bris
Black 15
Rockliff 8
Brown 4
Redden 4
Power 3
Lueunberger 2
Clark 2
Rich 1
Carl
Judd 32
Murphy 26
Gibbs 11
Simpson 6
Robinson 6
Walker 4
Scotland 3
Betts 3
Carrazzo 2
Kruezer 2
Coll
Pendelbury 28
Swan 25
Thomas 18
Cloke 9
Davis 5
Beams 5
Blair 4
Sidebottom 3
Shaw 3
Wellingham 3
Ball 3
Krakour 2
Dawes 1
Fasolo 1
Ess
Watson 20
Hocking 6
Stanton 6
Zaharakis 4
Monfries 4
Reimers 3
Melksham 3
Howlett 2
Myers 2
Bellchambers 2
Hille 1
Crameri 1
Lonergan 1
Ryder 1
Mcveigh 1
Fre
Fyfe 15
Pavlich 13
Lower 5
Sandilands 4
Mundy 3
Ballantyne 2
Griffin 2
Mzungu 2
Mcpharlin 1
Broughton 1
Barlow 1
Johnson 1
Geel
Selwood 19
Johnson 12
Bartel 9
Corey 9
Chapman 9
Kelly 7
Enright 6
Podsiadly 6
Stokes 5
Christensen 5
Ling 2
Ottens 2
Menzel 2
Wojcinski 1
GC
Ablett 24
Rischitelli 8
Brennan 5
Swallow 1
Iles 1
Haw
Mitchell 29
Franklin 15
Hodge 12
Sewell 8
Rioli 7
Lewis 6
Savage 3
Suckling 3
Guerra 3
Birchall 3
Burgouyne 2
Shiels 3
Hale 1
Puopolo 1
Whitecross 2
Bruce 1
Kang
Swallow 22
Wells 12
Ziebell 9
Petrie 8
Goldstien 7
Harvey 9
Rawlings 1
Edwards 1
Bastinac 1
Pederson 1
Thomas 1
Melb
Moloney 20
Sylvia 7
Trengove 4
Martin 4
Green 4
Pettard 3
Jamar 3
McKenzie 3
Watts 3
Maric 1
Port
Brogan 4
Gray 4
Westoff 4
Schulz 3
Boak 3
Ebert 2
Hartlett 1
Cassisi 1
Rich
Cotchin 17
Martin 15
Foley 6
Deledio 6
Newman 2
Nahas 2
Houli 2
Riewoldt 1
Tuck 1
StK
Dal Santo 22
Montagna 14
Goddard 8
Milne 6
Riewoldt 5
Schnieder 3
Hayes 2
Armitage 1
Mcevoy 1
Koschitzke 1
Syd
Goodes 20
Okeefe 14
Bolton 13
Kennedy 10
Mumford 8
Seaby 3
Mcveigh 3
Mcglynn 3
Jack 2
WB
Boyd 27
Griffen 15
Ward 4
Gian 4
Higgins 3
Cooney 3
Hall 2
Gilbee 1
Tutt 1
WCE
Priddis 24
Cox 19
Shuey 9
Embley 7
Kerr 6
Kennedy 6
Lecras 5
Masten 4
Natanui 3
Lynch 3
Hurn 2
Rosa 1
Gaff 1
Great job Usman! :D
Especially with the full club-by-club rundown.
Poor Port Adelaide.... ;)
I'm about to go to bed so I can't be bothered getting a calculator out, but it'd be interesting to see the total number of votes polled for each club and rank them 1-17.
QuoteI'm about to go to bed so I can't be bothered getting a calculator out, but it'd be interesting to see the total number of votes polled for each club and rank them 1-17.
Sorry i have that should have added them in. Results are as follows:
110 Collingwood
98 Hawthorn
94 Geelong
94 Carlton
90 WCE
76 Sydney
73 Kangaroos
70 WB
63 St Kilda
57 Essendon
52 Richmond
52 Melbourne
50 Fremantle
44 Adel
39 Brisbane
39 Gold Coast
22 Port Adelaide
that kinda shows geelong might deserve a few more votes and maybe Carlton have been given a few to many? possibly saints have been overlooked a bit aswell and that port are just in a league of there own :p
just like like to say a big thanks to usman and madskill for the work you guys have done this year, been an interesting read all year long!
cheers guys :)
Thompson will finish top 3. Get on him.
Priddi will finish top 1. Get on him :P
Here are the results of the top 10 for my brownlow count
Brownlow - Scott Pendlebury - 27
2nd - Marc Murphy & Matthew Boyd - 26
4th - Chris Judd - 25
5th - Adam Goodes - 24
6th - Sam Mitchell - 23
7th - Dane Swan - 21
8th - Dean Cox & Nick Dal Santo - 20
10th - Brent Moloney, Scott Thompson, Lance Franklin & Matthew Priddis - 19
I always root for Boyd and will continue to do so 8).
Awesome stuff Usman and others for the brownlow count round by round. It'll certainly be interesting to see how it stands up to the umps opinions.
just going over some of the odds and leader after rd.12 looks like some good value, if using usman's scoring.
pendles at $9.00 at centrebet
and at $7.00 at tab seems to be to good a bet to overlook
TAB now has multis on most team votes. However there is little to no value. Pathetic odds not even worth it.
Are you sure Usman?
i think it depends what state you're in,, SA tab doesnt have any multi's atm
now just alittle advice for anyone betting on outright winner(on tab) before placing your bet on have a look at the odds for which team the winner comes from; for example goodes is $6, but sydney is $6 aswell. i undersand that it makes little difference(cause goodes is probably the only one from swans that can win), but why not cover the whole sydney team for the same price as just goodes. and this goes for boyd/WB both $13, ablett/GC $15, also judd is $1.85, but u can back the whole carlton team at $1.65.
so just something to think about
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,42618.msg550824/topicseen.html#new
Time is now guys :)
Put your votes to the test!
Some brilliant stuff this year
After much hard work i have finalized my second lot of brownlow predictions using next years scoring system. Extremely interesting results, the most notable Judd not in the top 3 which i find hard to beleive but im confident, and will stick by it.
28 Swan
28 Murphy
26 Mitchell*
25 Pendlebury
23 Judd
23 Thompson
22 Franklin
22 Boyd
21 Dal Santo
21 Moloney
20 Ablett
20 Cox
19 Goodes
18 Swallow
17 Watson
Reasons why i like this phantom brownlow better is from a historical stand point. from my first predictions the top 10 had a total of 258 while this one has 239 which seems alot more realistic. it also incorporates 8 more polling players and just as a whole seems more realistic. Thoughts?
2010
30 Judd
26 Ablett
24 Swan
21 Pendlebury
21 Selwood
20 Sandilands
20 Boyd
19 Hayes
16 watson
16 hodge
Total 213
2009
30 Ablett
22 Judd
20 Hayes
19 Black
19 Brown
17 Dal santo
17 Goodes
16 Selwood
15 Riewoldt
15 Murphy
Total 190
2008
24 Cooney
23 Black
22 Richardson
22 Ablett
21 Goodes
20 Franklin
19 Selwood
17 Harvey
17 Pavlich
16 Judd
Total 201
usman, you havnt given goodes many votes, but the bookies basically have him 2nd favourite. is that something you have looked at?
also have you placed your bets yet and if so r u willing to share ;D
tab have opened a few more exotics and a bet im looking at is a 3-leg multi for H2H,
mitchell to beat boyd
watson to beat martin
cox to beat black all up pays $3.96 your thoughts on that?
also a group bet im looking at ruck group (leuenburger,hille,mumford,sandi,naitanui) mumford at $2.75
by your scoring that seems pretty safe
most team votes, cotchin(richmond) $1.90
swallow(north) $1.50
westhoff(port) $3.00 and they ofcourse are all single bets
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 14, 2011, 03:19:15 PM
westhoff(port) $3.00 and they ofcourse are all single bets
You reckon he'll score more than Gray? Gray on of those players who could potentially steal a three in our wins, and he should poll either 2 or 3 in the Bombers loss.
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 14, 2011, 03:19:15 PM
usman, you havnt given goodes many votes, but the bookies basically have him 2nd favourite. is that something you have looked at?
also have you placed your bets yet and if so r u willing to share ;D
tab have opened a few more exotics and a bet im looking at is a 3-leg multi for H2H,
mitchell to beat boyd
watson to beat martin
cox to beat black all up pays $3.96 your thoughts on that?
also a group bet im looking at ruck group (leuenburger,hille,mumford,sandi,naitanui) mumford at $2.75
by your scoring that seems pretty safe
most team votes, cotchin(richmond) $1.90
swallow(north) $1.50
westhoff(port) $3.00 and they ofcourse are all single bets
where the hell did you find that???
Quote from: PowerBug on September 14, 2011, 03:55:12 PM
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 14, 2011, 03:19:15 PM
westhoff(port) $3.00 and they ofcourse are all single bets
You reckon he'll score more than Gray? Gray on of those players who could potentially steal a three in our wins, and he should poll either 2 or 3 in the Bombers loss.
the problem with backing anyone from port is that they wont get many votes full stop which in turn means theres more chance of 2 or more players getting the same amount of votes. which means the payout gets split up.
can westoff beat gray? i dont know, i looked at the games we (port) won and westoff was in our top 3 in a few of them. i wont be putting very much on it thats for sure,, boak will be the other main contender aswell
Quote from: navy.blueANDwhite on September 14, 2011, 04:55:27 PM
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 14, 2011, 03:19:15 PM
usman, you havnt given goodes many votes, but the bookies basically have him 2nd favourite. is that something you have looked at?
also have you placed your bets yet and if so r u willing to share ;D
tab have opened a few more exotics and a bet im looking at is a 3-leg multi for H2H,
mitchell to beat boyd
watson to beat martin
cox to beat black all up pays $3.96 your thoughts on that?
also a group bet im looking at ruck group (leuenburger,hille,mumford,sandi,naitanui) mumford at $2.75
by your scoring that seems pretty safe
most team votes, cotchin(richmond) $1.90
swallow(north) $1.50
westhoff(port) $3.00 and they ofcourse are all single bets
where the hell did you find that???
navy that is at TAB (SA) dont know if its the same in other states
Top Notch job this yr Usman!!!!
Hi have made my bets fwiw:
Pendles WIN
Pendles PLACE
Pendles TOP 5
Murphy leader after rd 12
One $100 multi bet:
Boyd
Priddis
NDS
Martin
Westhoff
Swallow
Selwood
Fyfe
Watson
Pendles
48/1
GOOD LUCK ALL
Hi Usman,
Good work buddy be interesting to see how your system new and old holds up. Have you been approached by any of the betting agencys re' your formulae.................
Quote from: Hippo on September 15, 2011, 01:55:27 PM
Top Notch job this yr Usman!!!!
Hi have made my bets fwiw:
Pendles WIN
Pendles PLACE
Pendles TOP 5
Murphy leader after rd 12
One $100 multi bet:
Boyd
Priddis
NDS
Martin
Westhoff
Swallow
Selwood
Fyfe
Watson
Pendles
48/1
GOOD LUCK ALL
hippo what site were you able to put on that multi-bet? if it was TAB then what state?
cheers and good luck i see you have gone for a few tight calls there martin/westoff/fyfe, but if it comes in oh baby
Hey Upthe
I saw that IASbet were allowing multis on Monday so i quickly placed one on
but from what i can tell it only took a few hrs for IAS to cap the multi legs to 5 max, i got in with 30 min to spare before this time.
i just went with who i thought would get up as i had already spent my Brownlow stake so didn't have the funds to hedge all the 50/50 teams
Makes the night much more interesting than just following Pendles
Quote from: Hippo on September 16, 2011, 02:59:17 PM
Hey Upthe
I saw that IASbet were allowing multis on Monday so i quickly placed one on
but from what i can tell it only took a few hrs for IAS to cap the multi legs to 5 max, i got in with 30 min to spare before this time.
i just went with who i thought would get up as i had already spent my Brownlow stake so didn't have the funds to hedge all the 50/50 teams
Makes the night much more interesting than just following Pendles
cheers thanks for that, even a 5-leg multi would be ok
i really think pendles for leader after rd.12 is too good to pass up, at like $7 or so.
im having a hard time convincing myself that judd wont win it again, but hate his odds... oh the torture of it all lol
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 14, 2011, 03:19:15 PM
usman, you havnt given goodes many votes, but the bookies basically have him 2nd favourite. is that something you have looked at?
also have you placed your bets yet and if so r u willing to share ;D
tab have opened a few more exotics and a bet im looking at is a 3-leg multi for H2H,
mitchell to beat boyd
watson to beat martin
cox to beat black all up pays $3.96 your thoughts on that?
also a group bet im looking at ruck group (leuenburger,hille,mumford,sandi,naitanui) mumford at $2.75
by your scoring that seems pretty safe
most team votes, cotchin(richmond) $1.90
swallow(north) $1.50
westhoff(port) $3.00 and they ofcourse are all single bets
Those bets all look good. However Martin is a major threat to cotchin and gray to westoff. I'm going to put my bets on to igbt and will the. Let you know what I did :)
Thanks to everyone for the encouragement.
Ok so if you didn't make sense of that message last night it was meant to say I was putting bets on last night. I did only on trifectas and quinellas as I think that is were the most value is if your bold enough. With trifectas tabsportsebet which I'd the agency I used only gives combinations for 5 different players Judd, pendles, Murphy, swan, and goodes. Ally he value is obviously in combinations without Judd in the top 3 so I placed a few bets on combinations involving pendles, Murphy an swan as I think goodeseys yearly be a tiny bit overhyped because he has been the in form player of the comp the last 5-7 rounds but before that he most Lilly won't poll too much. However I did place one bet with a goodes combination to come third at $501. In terms of quinellas I just went with really unlikely ones like Priddis winning Thompson second and stuff like that and put $1 on them why not they are paying $2001 and if priddis steals votes off cox, shuey, embley and Kerr who knows? He was very consistent and that always helps. Another bet that I didn't do but is very good value IMO is Thompson to finish in the top 5 at $11
Thompson should rack up the votes at Adelaide so good luck there 8). I'd love to see Priddis finish high with the Eagles performing once again.
Goodes should poll well later rounds but I can't remember earlier rounds :-[.
Good luck with the betting fellas, hopefully somebody wins big!
yeah i like thompson aswell, not many crows players will take votes even thought adelaide didnt win many games, it has to be worth a small wager.
my concern with place bets(or more so top 5) is that if lets say 4th to 7th(3-4players) finish with 21 votes than the bet doesnt get paid out in full, cause it will be split up depending on how many tie.
murphy/swan quinella looks good(off top of my head) the odds are like $81 or so
Did a quick 3,2,1 after each game this year and ended up with:
Judd -27
Pendlebury - 27
Swan - 26
Goodes - 24
Boyd - 24
HALFWAY:
Watson - 14
Pendlebury - 14
Judd - 13
VALUE BETS:
Rockliff - (Brisbane most votes) @ $5.50 (started @ $10)
Swan - (Top 5) @ $2 (surely!)
Pendlebury/Swan - (Quinella) @ $41 (possible)
Wow Scuba if we ended up with your points total that'd probably be the most exciting Brownlow in years. I hope it happens as well, Pendlebury and Judd are terrific footballers.
I prefer Boyd on top but will be hard :P.
Lets hope for a cracking count this season!
Quote from: ScubaSteve02 on September 18, 2011, 03:07:38 PM
Did a quick 3,2,1 after each game this year and ended up with:
Judd -27
Pendlebury - 27
Swan - 26
Goodes - 24
Boyd - 24
HALFWAY:
Watson - 14
Pendlebury - 14
Judd - 13
VALUE BETS:
Rockliff - (Brisbane most votes) @ $5.50 (started @ $10)
Swan - (Top 5) @ $2 (surely!)
Pendlebury/Swan - (Quinella) @ $41 (possible)
Scuba Steve, Where does Mitchell fit into your polling scheme mate?
Some other questions that could be answered:
1)Whats better value: Swan for top 5 @ 2.00 OR pendles at 2.25 for top 3?
2)If we bet $100 on pendles for the win at 7/1, and he ties it with juddy as shown in scuba steve's example, does that mean the payout is 350?
3) Say if we use the example of judd and pendles tie at 27 all, and swan comes 3rd.. the judd/pendles/swan trifecta is 13/1 whislt pendles/judd/swan is $26, does that mean that both the payouts will be halved and given out?
I had Mitchell just outside this with 21 votes. As for better value it's pretty similar really I went $100 on pendlebury to place @$2.75 but swan should make top 5 I reckon mate. U will get half the amount if he ties and as for the trifecta I'm not sure?
Can't join that cos of stupid firewall issues, but what do you think of this multi I made?
Most votes from their club: Fyfe, A. Swallow, Gray, Cotchin and Priddis. Gave me odds of 22.99
Am I in with a shot?
Quote from: CrowsFan on September 21, 2011, 09:27:18 PM
Can't join that cos of stupid firewall issues, but what do you think of this multi I made?
Most votes from their club: Fyfe, A. Swallow, Gray, Cotchin and Priddis. Gave me odds of 22.99
Am I in with a shot?
You certainly are CF, i had all of them winning their teams votes bar Priddis.
I'm guessing you had Cox?
I was thinking Cox, but for some reason he has never polled well at the Brownlow even when he was in his peak years so thought I would go Priddis instead.
I chucked 50 on that so could be in for a big gain :)
Quote from: CrowsFan on September 21, 2011, 09:49:52 PM
I'm guessing you had Cox?
I was thinking Cox, but for some reason he has never polled well at the Brownlow even when he was in his peak years so thought I would go Priddis instead.
I chucked 50 on that so could be in for a big gain :)
Yeah i think it will go either way and Embley will also poll generously.
ok well i did my quick count and this is my top 13, the way i do it its more of a guide than exact count...
1, swan
2, pendlebury
3,(tie) judd
mitchell
cox
boyd
7, dal santo
8, priddis
9, murphy
10,(tie) thompson
selwood
goodes
13, watson
leader after rd.12 ..
murphy
watson
selwood
pendlebury
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,42618.0.html
Friendly reminder!
Go Pendles :)
Quote from: Usman on September 09, 2011, 01:18:45 PM
TAB now has multis on most team votes. However there is little to no value. Pathetic odds not even worth it.
Agree 100% with the crap odds,...no way id bet with tab and i have a gold account.
Are you sure though they multi?
So what bets have people got on? im hoping my Pendlebury place comes through @ $2.75. Put $2 on a roughie the other day having Rockliff, S. Johnson and Petrie winning their team votes @ $960/1
rockliff at $6 looks like a good bet even if black is a vote whore.
there is a forward group bet johnson at $13 to beat (franklin,pav,okeefe,cloke) i dont know if he will take that out ,but the odds are too good to ignore.
mumford to beat(sandi,leuberger,hille,nitnac) at $3.50 or so
pendlebury leader after rd.12 at $7
swan top 5 at $1.90
also a H2H bet swan to beat goodes at $2.35
lots of different quinella's
and a bet that if judd doesnt win looks good,, team the winner comes from, collingwood at $5 considering pendlebury is $6 on his own, and i think swan is a good chance
nice odds on johnson but cant see it happening Franklin and Cloke will probably out poll him
Thank you to the tab for saving me big $ by pulling the pin on multis and by the time they did offer it wasnt worth it as all locks were 1.01 so not worth hedging hence i didnt play. Silly gooses pulled the pin this year and they would have made a fair bit of profit with the Gray, Swan, Bris tie. Overall i came out just up in the cb groups etc.
Bisazc sportsbet.com offered 5 leg multis on team votes. I won 1,150 from a 50 bet doing that. Picked Fyfe, Gray, Priddis, Swallow and Cotchin ;D
Quote from: CrowsFan on September 27, 2011, 12:15:59 AM
Bisazc sportsbet.com offered 5 leg multis on team votes. I won 1,150 from a 50 bet doing that. Picked Fyfe, Gray, Priddis, Swallow and Cotchin ;D
You did well to pick all the closies/value all in 1 bet and with $50... well done
pendles leader at round 12 thankyouuuuu. but Boyd getting 3 votes in the last round to tie for 4th with pendles (3rd with mitch ineligible). noooo!
Quote from: upthemaidens on September 22, 2011, 03:48:25 PM
ok well i did my quick count and this is my top 13, the way i do it its more of a guide than exact count...
1, swan
2, pendlebury
3,(tie) judd
mitchell
cox
boyd
7, dal santo
8, priddis
9, murphy
10,(tie) thompson
selwood
goodes
13, watson
leader after rd.12 ..
murphy
watson
selwood
pendlebury
just wanted to blow my own horn ;D and i didnt throw my back out trying :o
dam you murphy all those ones killed you and dal santo polled huge
:(
Gotta thank you Usman for all your work this year.
Used your team votes to help me pick my 5 players for my multi, although put Gray ahead of the other Port players.
Thanks a lot Usman :)
radio station SEN had dane swan winning in there award on a 3-2-1 system from every game and had him on 34 votes :o
Quote from: eagles929406 on September 28, 2011, 12:33:12 AM
radio station SEN had dane swan winning in there award on a 3-2-1 system from every game and had him on 34 votes :o
Okay :P
I thought it was interesting how the guy that bought out the speech, Fitzpatrick, had written down that he broke a record. It was like he already knew the result beforehand :o
Quote from: PowerBug on September 28, 2011, 09:26:48 AM
Quote from: eagles929406 on September 28, 2011, 12:33:12 AM
radio station SEN had dane swan winning in there award on a 3-2-1 system from every game and had him on 34 votes :o
Okay :P
I thought it was interesting how the guy that bought out the speech, Fitzpatrick, had written down that he broke a record. It was like he already knew the result beforehand :o
I thought they did know it beforehand ???
They don't know beforehand (well, not suppose to anyway). Andy D opens and counts them for the first time that night.
And I reckon they had people looking for records as the count when on, wouldn't be hard
Anyone else find it funny when he read out:
"Hawthorn, I. Omith, 1 vote"
Everyone looked so confused!