People seem to get hung up about having the top 10 midfielders, defenders etc at seasons end and how essential it is if you want to do well at this game. I've looked at the past 5 seasons and the top 10/4 ranked players for each position to see just how unpredictable these lists end up.
2013
Defenders
Brendon Goddard
Bob Murphy
Michael Hibberd
Bryce Gibbs
Pearce Hanley
Heath Shaw
Garrick Ibbotson
Grant Birchall
Harry Taylor
Bachar Houli
|
Avg.
106
98.8
95.9
95.7
95.7
95.6
94.5
94
92.5
91.6
|
|
Midfielders
Gary Ablett Jnr
Scott Pendlebury
Joel Selwood
Dane Swan
Ryan Griffen
Leigh Montagna
Patrick Dangerfield
Jobe Watson
Jack Steven
Michael Barlow
|
Avg.
128.8
125.5
117.2
116.8
116.3
114.7
112.9
111.4
109.9
109.2
|
|
Rucks
Will Minson
Todd Goldstein
Dean Cox
Ivan Maric
|
Avg.
114.3
113.5
107.3
98.9
|
|
Forwards
Steve Johnson
Tom Rockliff
Jimmy Bartel
Nick Riewoldt
Andrew Walker
Brent Harvey
Drew Petrie
Dustin Martin
Justin Westhoff
Matthew Stokes
|
Avg.
117.2
109.6
106.7
105.1
104.6
104
102.7
100.3
97.8
97.1
|
|
2014
Defenders
Pearce Hanley
David Swallow
Nick Malceski
Jimmy Bartel
Jarrad McVeigh
Sam Mitchell
Luke Hodge
Kade Simpson
Brodie Smith
Shaun Burgoyne
|
Avg.
103.7
103.1
101.4
100.3
99.2
98.7
96.1
95.4
93.5
92.8
|
|
Midfielders
Gary Ablett Jnr
Tom Rockliff
Scott Pendlebury
Joel Selwood
Nathan Fyfe
Dayne Beams
Rory Sloane
Steele Sidebottom
Josh P. Kennedy
Callan Ward
|
Avg.
136.7
132
124.4
123.3
122.3
115.5
114.8
113.2
113.1
112.8
|
|
Rucks
Sam Jacobs
Shane Mumford
Stefan Martin
Todd Goldstein
|
Avg.
115.3
114.1
111.7
108.9
|
|
Forwards
Robbie Gray
Brent Harvey
Patrick Dangerfield
Lance Franklin
Dustin Martin
Dayne Zorko
Ben McGlynn
Paul Chapman
Matthew Stokes
Jarryd Roughead
|
Avg.
110.9
107.1
105.6
100.8
99.3
98.9
97.1
96.2
95
94.5
|
|
2015
Defenders
Heath Shaw
Luke Hodge
Liam Picken
Alex Rance
Tom McDonald
Corey Enright
Bachar Houli
Michael Hurley
Rory Laird
Kade Simpson
|
Avg.
112.6
111
99.1
98.1
95.9
95.6
95.3
94.8
94.2
92.7
|
|
Midfielders
Nathan Fyfe
Patrick Dangerfield
Scott Pendlebury
Gary Ablett Jnr
Daniel Hannebery
Dayne Beams
Josh P. Kennedy
Matthew Priddis
David Mundy
Leigh Montagna
|
Avg.
123.7
120
116.2
115.5
114.4
113.4
113.1
113
111.2
111
|
|
Rucks
Todd Goldstein
Stefan Martin
Aaron Sandilands
Sam Jacobs
|
Avg.
128.1
110.7
107.5
107.3
|
|
Forwards
Brett Deledio
Robbie Gray
Dane Swan
Luke Dahlhaus
Dustin Martin
Marcus Bontempelli
Tom Mitchell
Harley Bennell
Dayne Zorko
Chad Wingard
|
Avg.
111.8
110.4
105.9
104.7
103.9
103.7
102.9
101.7
100.6
97.7
|
|
2016
Defenders
Sam Docherty
Kade Simpson
Heath Shaw
Matthew Boyd
Corey Enright
Alex Rance
Rory Laird
James Kelly
Shaun Burgoyne
Jason Johannisen
|
Avg.
108.7
106.3
103.7
100
99.5
98.4
97.5
96.2
95.5
93.5
|
|
Midfielders
Patrick Dangerfield
Scott Pendlebury
Gary Ablett Jnr
Josh P. Kennedy
Lachie Neale
Adam Treloar
Tom Rockliff
Joel Selwood
Daniel Hannebery
Luke Parker
|
Avg.
131.9
118.6
114.7
113.5
112.6
111.2
111
110.8
110.7
108.7
|
|
Rucks
Max Gawn
Todd Goldstein
Nic Naitanui
Shane Mumford
|
Avg.
118.5
108.9
105.9
97.2
|
|
Forwards
Zach Merrett
Dayne Zorko
Nick Riewoldt
Daniel Wells
Leigh Montagna
Michael Barlow
Luke Dahlhaus
Josh J. Kennedy
Aaron Hall
Lance Franklin
|
Avg.
111.4
109
101
100.4
98.9
98
97.2
96.9
95.5
95.1
|
|
2017
Defenders
Sam Docherty
Taylor Adams
Michael Hurley
Rory Laird
Michael Hibberd
Jeremy Howe
Bachar Houli
Kade Simpson
Zac Williams
Dylan Roberton
|
Avg.
114,7
107.5
102.5
100.2
99.2
94.1
94.1
93.9
93.9
92.6
|
|
Midfielders
Patrick Dangerfield
Dustin Martin
Tom Mitchell
Gary Ablett Jnr
Josh Kelly
Clayton Oliver
Dayne Zorko
Matt Crouch
Rory Sloane
Mitch Duncan
|
Avg.
136.4
119.3
118.9
114.8
114.3
111.5
110.8
110.6
110.2
109.8
|
|
Rucks
Matthew Kreuzer
Patrick Ryder
Shane Mumford
Stefan Martin
|
Avg.
109.8
103
98.3
98.2
|
|
Forwards
Jackson Macrae
Elliot Yeo
Lance Franklin
Isaac Heeney
Toby Greene
Josh J. Kennedy
Chad Wingard
Jack Billings
Shaun Higgins
Jack Steele
|
Avg.
107
102.1
98.3
97.6
96.1
93.5
93
92.7
91.9
91.1
|
|
Key• Players in blue have been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons, rating them
god status.• Players in green have been in the top echelon of their position 3-4 times in the past 5 seasons, rating them
elite.• Players in red have been in the top echelon of their position twice in the past 5 seasons, rating them
high end premiums.*current players only
Notes
• Apart from 2015 where 3/4 of the highest averaging rucks from the previous season remained the same, there has been only 1 ruck that has backed up their top 4 placing in the following season (Goldy had been a consecutive top 4 ruck every season up until 2017, Mumford went back-to-back in 2016-17). Mummy is no longer there so we'll slide Grundy into his spot. There is a good chance that at least 3 of Kreuzer, Ryder, Martin and Grundy will not be in the top 4 rucks in 2018.
• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.
• Excluding the rucks, the most a position has remained the same was in 2016 with 5/10 midfielders backing up their previous season (Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Ablett, Hannebery and Kennedy). History says at best only 50% of the top 2017 defenders, midfielders and forwards will back it up in 2018.
• I haven't seen perennial top 10 defender Bachar Houli or midfielder JPK in many sides. The latter is 11ppg underpriced from his 2016 average.
• Over the past 5 seasons, players aged 29 or over have made up 38% of the top 10 defenders, 20% for mids, 30% for rucks and 34% for forwards. Don't write off the oldies.
• The forward line is historically the hardest position to predict, with 2015 being the best year where 3/10 remained from the previous season. There have been 8 or 9 new faces every other season.
• In 2013, 9 top ranked players increased their average by 17 points or more from the previous season, only 2 remained in the top 10 of their position in 2014. 4/9 backed it up in 2015, 3/10 in 2016 and 0/5 in 2017. The majority of Hibberd, Kelly, Oliver, Crouch, Duncan, Kreuzer, Ryder, Yeo, Heeney, Billings and Steele are flowered.
• The forward line is the place to take punts with the most players (12/50 or 24%) that increased their average by 17 points or more from the previous season that ended up in the top 10 (from oldest season to most recent: 4, 3, 3, 2). This is closely followed by the backline with 11/50 or 22%.
• Only 22 current players have been in the top echelon of their position for consecutive seasons. These players are: Hanley, Ablett, Pendlebury, Selwood, Goldstein, Dustin Martin, Hodge, Simpson, Fyfe, Beams, Josh P Kennedy, Jacobs, Stefan Martin, Gray, Zorko, Shaw, Rance, Laird, Hannebery, Dahlhaus, Josh J Kennedy and Franklin.
• History says at least two defenders that averaged between 59.1 and 79.3 in 2017 will be top 10 defenders in 2018. Clarke, McGrath, Scharenberg, Maynard, Kolodjashnij, Sicily, Mills, Ryan, Hanley, Vlastuin, Pittard anyone?
What was the point of all this? Having the top 10 players is overrated, the loss of points early in the season by having to field 55 averaging spuds is underrated.
Brad Ebert and his 100.5 average was only good enough for 25th in the competition out of all midfielders in 2017. But was the extra 9.7 points scored by Rory Sloane (9th highest averaging mid) worth the extra 155k? that extra cash could have been used to turn a higher priced rookie into Jack Steele (91.1 average and the 10th highest averaging fwd).
Obviously you need a bit of luck to pick the correct mid-pricers but there are players floating around that I'd be reasonably confident picking. Coniglio, Prestia, Libba and Redden have all averaged over 100 before to name a few. They are all priced at 83 or less and are worth serious consideration.
Excellent research Adamant. You hit the nail on the head - you have 3 or 4 midfielders that will be green in 2018, the trick and skill of us coaches is to select the Mitchell, Oliver, Steele of 2018 and that can be your 4th and or 5th mf. With Rucks, you can be impacted by injury (Kruezer) and the desire of coaches to develop a second ruck option (Cox, Smith, Lycett). How many trades do you want to use up finding the next gun or take the existing ones and trade up to the emerging guns. A great challenge for all of us
That's some brilliant work there mate.
Simmo has been in the top10 for last 4 years and averaged 95 in the year he missed out. Was he a mid that year?
Quote from: Adamant on January 12, 2018, 07:16:30 AM
Notes
• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.
And Danger albeit in forwards one year. Only the silly are writing him off.
Quote from: enzedder on January 12, 2018, 08:14:13 AM
Quote from: Adamant on January 12, 2018, 07:16:30 AM
Notes
• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.
And Danger albeit in forwards one year. Only the silly are writing him off.
Not writing him off, just think there's less injury prone options available for 631k or less ;D
• 3 top ranked players (2 def, 1 mid) in 2013 couldn't back it up the following season, but were able to reclaim their top 10 mantle two seasons later in 2015. 4 players (1 def, 2 mids, 1 fwd) did the same between 14-16 and 5 players (2 def, 1 ruck, 2 fwds) between 15-17. History says that Heath Shaw and Alex Rance are likely to be top 10 defenders again in 2018, while a further 1-3 players from 2016 will also get back there.
• One midfielder that averaged between 87.8 and 91 in 2017 is a good chance to be top 10 in 2018. Connor Blakely looks like the best shout from this bracket.
• History says at least two forwards that averaged between 71.7 and 83.8 in 2017 will be top 10 forwards in 2018. Give some thought to Lobb, Mathieson, Acres, Curnow, Parish, Petracca, De Goey, Daniel, Smith, Martin and Papley.
What do these numbers tell us in relation to 2018?
Kade Simpson, Heath Shaw and Rory Laird are near locks to be top 10 defenders. Heater is a whopping 22.6 points underpriced from his 2016 average and will be out to reclaim his mantle. Hanley might be the second best value defender going around. Bachar is another likely top 10 defender that is flying under the radar
GAJ will be the 4th highest averaging midfielder at worst. It's very likely that at least one Sydney mid will be top 10 - Hanners, JPK and Parker are all 10 points underpriced or more.
2017's breakouts in Kelly, Oliver, Crouch and Duncan are in a bit of strife. Perhaps think twice before forking out 600k for these blokes.
Max Gawn is the undisputed biggest lock in the competition, but Stefan Martin might be the safest premium ruck. Kreuzer and Ryder simply cannot be top 4 rucks in 2018.
Dayne Zorko is underrated even as a mid only.
Get funky in the forward line. 7-9 of Franklin, Heeney, Greene, JJK, Wingard, Billings, Dixon, Dahlhaus, Cameron and Wallis won't be top 10 in 2018. You'd be a brave man to bet against Buddy however.
But above all, this shower is impossible to predict.
Summed up your work nicely in last sentence
The #1 thing to extract from all that is that Wilbur was a god.
Quote from: meow meow on January 12, 2018, 06:58:05 PM
The #1 thing to extract from all that is that Wilbur was a god.
Lol, and now he's gone to heaven.....Norf.
Quote from: Adamant on January 12, 2018, 07:16:30 AM
• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.
Quote from: Levi434 on January 17, 2018, 04:02:37 PM
Quote from: Adamant on January 12, 2018, 07:16:30 AM
• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.
No one is writing him off for average points. But the last 4 years he's played 15, 6, 14 and 14 games.
Quote from: Huttabito on January 17, 2018, 05:04:56 PM
Quote from: Levi434 on January 17, 2018, 04:02:37 PM
Quote from: Adamant on January 12, 2018, 07:16:30 AM
• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.
No one is writing him off for average points. But the last 4 years he's played 15, 6, 14 and 14 games.
And at best will only play 18 this year even if he doesn't get injured. There's no way the cats will risk him anytime he's even slightly sore or tired
Could be a good pick up later in season as Cats have a lot of home games in second half of season
Investing in these players I need them to play at least 16 games to be considered, more interested in 'overall' points, rather than average.
Quote from: Adamant on January 12, 2018, 07:16:30 AM
Excluding the rucks, the most a position has remained the same was in 2016 with 5/10 midfielders backing up their previous season (Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Ablett, Hannebery and Kennedy). History says at best only 50% of the top 2017 defenders, midfielders and forwards will back it up in 2018.
Who stays, who goes?
Defenders: Hurley, Laird
Mids: Danger, Titch, Fyfe and possibly Martin
Fwd: Franklin
Would be the most likely IMO.
Everyone else I have my doubts over.
an interesting read revisited (shear boredom) given the result. of the 2017 crop, 25/34 players didnt make it back on top 2018.
I think big Stef needs to be R2 this season.
Quote from: frenzy on January 16, 2019, 07:11:27 PM
an interesting read revisited (shear boredom) given the result. of the 2017 crop, 25/34 players didnt make it back on top 2018.
I think big Stef needs to be R2 this season.
Shhhhh
Other than Goldy going 128 in 2015, every other ruck average there (Excluding Gawn) was 115 or less, and most of them are under 110
Grundy and Gawn went 130ish!
That's massive compared to all these previous years. Whether they can back it up or not is yet to be seen, but with the Dees and Pies pushing for a flag, and those two averaging that high last year I'm just struggling to see how they won't be the Top 2 rucks this year
Even if they drop in average and price, doesn't matter. As long as they're Top 2, they're worth the cash imo
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on January 16, 2019, 10:11:27 PM
Other than Goldy going 128 in 2015, every other ruck average there (Excluding Gawn) was 115 or less, and most of them are under 110
Grundy and Gawn went 130ish!
That's massive compared to all these previous years. Whether they can back it up or not is yet to be seen, but with the Dees and Pies pushing for a flag, and those two averaging that high last year I'm just struggling to see how they won't be the Top 2 rucks this year
Even if they drop in average and price, doesn't matter. As long as they're Top 2, they're worth the cash imo
If Preuss is named alongside Gawn in Round 1, not sure many will start Gawn. If he isn't, then I agree.
Grundy should be locked for everyone regardless though.
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on January 16, 2019, 10:11:27 PM
Other than Goldy going 128 in 2015, every other ruck average there (Excluding Gawn) was 115 or less, and most of them are under 110
Grundy and Gawn went 130ish!
That's massive compared to all these previous years. Whether they can back it up or not is yet to be seen, but with the Dees and Pies pushing for a flag, and those two averaging that high last year I'm just struggling to see how they won't be the Top 2 rucks this year
Even if they drop in average and price, doesn't matter. As long as they're Top 2, they're worth the cash imo
Yeah, I'm finding it hard to really consider any ruck who isn't Grundy or Gawn.
Kreuzzzzzz
Quote from: _wato on January 17, 2019, 10:39:11 PM
Kreuzzzzzz
with you on that wato.. grundy locked, gawn the upgrade if all things go well.
Quote from: _wato on January 17, 2019, 10:39:11 PM
Kreuzzzzzz
430k... we're not talking like saving 80-100k. We're talking 260k saved from choosing him over Gawn who may have Preuss to deal with anyway. I simply cannot see myself swaying from Grundy/Kreuzer baring injuries.
Quote from: hawkers65 on January 18, 2019, 12:00:00 AM
Quote from: _wato on January 17, 2019, 10:39:11 PM
Kreuzzzzzz
430k... we're not talking like saving 80-100k. We're talking 260k saved from choosing him over Gawn who may have Preuss to deal with anyway. I simply cannot see myself swaying from Grundy/Kreuzer baring injuries.
You'd want to have cover if you're going with Kreuz. I couldn't start him unless there's a playing ruck rookie there to save the day
From left field With Bellchambers injiury is it worth having Zac Clarke has R3 playing him for first 2 rounds with Mummy as R2. Big Risk I know but allows cash for other lines.
Quote from: Ringo on January 18, 2019, 09:22:47 AM
From left field With Bellchambers injiury is it worth having Zac Clarke has R3 playing him for first 2 rounds with Mummy as R2. Big Risk I know but allows cash for other lines.
Belly resumes training next week so likely to be right by Round 1 you'd think
Even if Clarke gets named R1, he could be dropped shortly after which becomes annoying
Quote from: quinny88 on January 18, 2019, 03:03:53 AM
Quote from: hawkers65 on January 18, 2019, 12:00:00 AM
Quote from: _wato on January 17, 2019, 10:39:11 PM
Kreuzzzzzz
430k... we're not talking like saving 80-100k. We're talking 260k saved from choosing him over Gawn who may have Preuss to deal with anyway. I simply cannot see myself swaying from Grundy/Kreuzer baring injuries.
You'd want to have cover if you're going with Kreuz. I couldn't start him unless there's a playing ruck rookie there to save the day
There's also the very good chance you lose a good 30ppg by starting Kreuz over either of those 2 as well
Quote from: Ringo on January 18, 2019, 09:22:47 AM
From left field With Bellchambers injiury is it worth having Zac Clarke has R3 playing him for first 2 rounds with Mummy as R2. Big Risk I know but allows cash for other lines.
Was thinking the same thing except with Fort instead of Clarke.
Fort a good chance to line up round one imo.
Quote from: quinny88 on January 18, 2019, 03:03:53 AM
Quote from: hawkers65 on January 18, 2019, 12:00:00 AM
Quote from: _wato on January 17, 2019, 10:39:11 PM
Kreuzzzzzz
430k... we're not talking like saving 80-100k. We're talking 260k saved from choosing him over Gawn who may have Preuss to deal with anyway. I simply cannot see myself swaying from Grundy/Kreuzer baring injuries.
You'd want to have cover if you're going with Kreuz. I couldn't start him unless there's a playing ruck rookie there to save the day
Agree he has had one good season and been injured for a lot of the others , don't think I would start him even with a playing ruck rookie
Can definitely see the allure of Kreuz over Gawn playing around with it a bit. In the end it just becomes a different position that may need upgrading. For example Gawn and Libba vs Kreuz and Fyfe. In this situation I can see Kreuz being more of a keeper than Libba. Plus there is still excess cash to upgrade another lower top tier player to a real top tier player.