Any one else thinking of going super cheap in defence this year?
I had a bit of a look at how previous top 10 defenders performed and its not pretty!
All of the 2015 top 10 defenders had significant increases in their average from 2014, Enright being the smallest but still a respectabvle 6.6
Out of the top 10 defenders from 2013 and 2014 only 4 of 20 increased their average the following year, in fact 6 of them dropped 10 or more ppg which is a bit of a worry (I didn't count the players who lost their defender status but they are below for data accuracy reasons!)
I'm not sure if I want to play roulette with the class of 2015 so I'm seriously considering going as far as having Brodie Smith at D1 and Malceski at D2! Madness or a good idea? It would allow me to go with 5 mid/4 fwd premos and Goldy/Smartin as rucks
I am aware this might have been a waste of my time if some juicy DPP's pop up, Sidey, McVeigh, Swallow etc :P
(http://i.imgur.com/6BaaGY5.jpg)
Will need to wait and see on which new premiums there will be, but as of now I can more or less say I will not be starting Shaw or Hodge
Don Pyke has already said that Brodie Smith's best position, and where he will be playing is off half back. As for Malceski, I'm still not convinced on him after what I saw of him this year. Will need to impress in NAB
I'm sure I'll find a starting spot for Kade Simpson, always do. Tmac a chance too
I always cheap out in defence did not work out so good last year but did the year before just a gamble I'm willing to take ;)
people always have a go at me for picking birchall because he isnt top 6.
thats true but you can lock in 85-90 and stay around the same in price.
89 86 the last two years
Mcveigh is worth it if DPP though he kept it up.
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 08:16:38 AM
Will need to wait and see on which new premiums there will be, but as of now I can more or less say I will not be starting Shaw or Hodge
Don Pyke has already said that Brodie Smith's best position, and where he will be playing is off half back. As for Malceski, I'm still not convinced on him after what I saw of him this year. Will need to impress in NAB
I'm sure I'll find a starting spot for Kade Simpson, always do. Tmac a chance too
Talk from Adelaide is that with Seedsman coming in he will be playing more on the wing similar to what Smith did this year. This will free Smith to be the player that runs off half back again. What this means for Laird is a big question in my mind.
just out of interest the guy who won last year started like this
Shaw
Malceski
Newnes
Saad
Mcintosh
Goodes
my planned team at the moment is
Mcveigh
Rance
Bartel
Harwood
Weitering
Francis
reasonably cheap.
Quote from: Holz on December 09, 2015, 12:05:21 PM
just out of interest the guy who won last year started like this
Shaw
Malceski
Newnes
Saad
Mcintosh
Goodes
my planned team at the moment is
Mcveigh
Rance
Bartel
Harwood
Weitering
Francis
reasonably cheap.
Not sure on Bartel being in Defence but other than that it looks good.
I am liking the look of Malceski this year, i feel he will improve after a settling in year.
Is Weitering worth the 200k+ price tag as a defender?
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 02:03:46 PM
Is Weitering worth the 200k+ price tag as a defender?
the guy can play. Intercept marks and contested marks are good for SC.
Think he can average 60-65 and play every game.
considering he is my D4 I dont think i can go cheap without him.
Quote from: Holz on December 09, 2015, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 02:03:46 PM
Is Weitering worth the 200k+ price tag as a defender?
the guy can play. Intercept marks and contested marks are good for SC.
Think he can average 60-65 and play every game.
considering he is my D4 I dont think i can go cheap without him.
60-65 is not worth 220k surely?
No doubt he can play, but in terms of SC and his price tag it's hard to justify picking him.
I remember when Jack Martin started and was touted as the next greatest thing - even then we didn't start him at 220k, so why would we start a KPP?
Depends on what other options are available, but I would think I'll be going with a structure that doesn't include him at this stage
Quote from: Holz on December 09, 2015, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 02:03:46 PM
Is Weitering worth the 200k+ price tag as a defender?
the guy can play. Intercept marks and contested marks are good for SC.
Think he can average 60-65 and play every game.
considering he is my D4 I dont think i can go cheap without him.
His problem is his pace... but he reads the play better than some of the best in the AFL.. He did average 15 touches through the state carnival which is one of the highest i remember for a key defender.
saying that, id rather Mitch Brown (WCE) if hes 100K cheaper because the chances are as a first year player theyll average the same anyway.
Yeah Brown is probably pushed out of our best 22 so I wouldn't be starting him.
Quote from: LF on December 09, 2015, 03:36:17 PM
Yeah Brown is probably pushed out of our best 22 so I wouldn't be starting him.
did read eagles will be shifting McGovern forward, as relief for nicnat in ruck. With Brown + McKenzie taking the Key back roles...
have to find the article
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 03:29:46 PM
Quote from: Holz on December 09, 2015, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 02:03:46 PM
Is Weitering worth the 200k+ price tag as a defender?
the guy can play. Intercept marks and contested marks are good for SC.
Think he can average 60-65 and play every game.
considering he is my D4 I dont think i can go cheap without him.
60-65 is not worth 220k surely?
No doubt he can play, but in terms of SC and his price tag it's hard to justify picking him.
I remember when Jack Martin started and was touted as the next greatest thing - even then we didn't start him at 220k, so why would we start a KPP?
Depends on what other options are available, but I would think I'll be going with a structure that doesn't include him at this stage
if you have him as your D4 you need to find 5 guys cheaper then him who will play games and score I cant find 5 yet.
I reckon he will follow a similar path to Rance. excpet probably more of a focal point.
the question is who is a better pick?
Francis is
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/west-coast/west-coast-eagles-look-to-tweak-defensive-system-after-cyril-rioli-magic-in-hawthorn-premiership-win/news-story/e7c614de0f1b016e6c665e130c4a5fa1
Words of Shannon Hurn:
Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown would slot easily back in to the team’s backline next year and said Jeremy McGovern could become a damaging swingman in the mould of retired premiership utility Adam Hunter.
Quote from: LF on December 09, 2015, 03:36:17 PM
Yeah Brown is probably pushed out of our best 22 so I wouldn't be starting him.
Quote from: fasttrack13 on December 09, 2015, 03:46:56 PM
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/west-coast/west-coast-eagles-look-to-tweak-defensive-system-after-cyril-rioli-magic-in-hawthorn-premiership-win/news-story/e7c614de0f1b016e6c665e130c4a5fa1
Words of Shannon Hurn:
Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown would slot easily back in to the team’s backline next year and said Jeremy McGovern could become a damaging swingman in the mould of retired premiership utility Adam Hunter.
Read that myself.
I'm fairly certain Brown is in our best 22. He can play on bigs and smalls
As soon as Glass retired, Brown was more or less guaranteed
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 04:06:47 PM
Quote from: LF on December 09, 2015, 03:36:17 PM
Yeah Brown is probably pushed out of our best 22 so I wouldn't be starting him.
Quote from: fasttrack13 on December 09, 2015, 03:46:56 PM
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/west-coast/west-coast-eagles-look-to-tweak-defensive-system-after-cyril-rioli-magic-in-hawthorn-premiership-win/news-story/e7c614de0f1b016e6c665e130c4a5fa1
Words of Shannon Hurn:
Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown would slot easily back in to the team’s backline next year and said Jeremy McGovern could become a damaging swingman in the mould of retired premiership utility Adam Hunter.
Read that myself.
I'm fairly certain Brown is in our best 22. He can play on bigs and smalls
As soon as Glass retired, Brown was more or less guaranteed
Will we play Brown and Schofield? Not sure if we need 3 talls plus Gov even if they are all capable of playing on smalls
Quote from: Gigantor on December 09, 2015, 05:09:33 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 04:06:47 PM
Quote from: LF on December 09, 2015, 03:36:17 PM
Yeah Brown is probably pushed out of our best 22 so I wouldn't be starting him.
Quote from: fasttrack13 on December 09, 2015, 03:46:56 PM
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/west-coast/west-coast-eagles-look-to-tweak-defensive-system-after-cyril-rioli-magic-in-hawthorn-premiership-win/news-story/e7c614de0f1b016e6c665e130c4a5fa1
Words of Shannon Hurn:
Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown would slot easily back in to the team’s backline next year and said Jeremy McGovern could become a damaging swingman in the mould of retired premiership utility Adam Hunter.
Read that myself.
I'm fairly certain Brown is in our best 22. He can play on bigs and smalls
As soon as Glass retired, Brown was more or less guaranteed
Will we play Brown and Schofield? Not sure if we need 3 talls plus Gov even if they are all capable of playing on smalls
Can you define super cheap? how much are you planning to spend on you backline? 2M? more/less?
Quote from: Gigantor on December 09, 2015, 05:09:33 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on December 09, 2015, 04:06:47 PM
Quote from: LF on December 09, 2015, 03:36:17 PM
Yeah Brown is probably pushed out of our best 22 so I wouldn't be starting him.
Quote from: fasttrack13 on December 09, 2015, 03:46:56 PM
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/west-coast/west-coast-eagles-look-to-tweak-defensive-system-after-cyril-rioli-magic-in-hawthorn-premiership-win/news-story/e7c614de0f1b016e6c665e130c4a5fa1
Words of Shannon Hurn:
Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown would slot easily back in to the team’s backline next year and said Jeremy McGovern could become a damaging swingman in the mould of retired premiership utility Adam Hunter.
Read that myself.
I'm fairly certain Brown is in our best 22. He can play on bigs and smalls
As soon as Glass retired, Brown was more or less guaranteed
Will we play Brown and Schofield? Not sure if we need 3 talls plus Gov even if they are all capable of playing on smalls
Hurny is the captain of the team he can that but in the end he doesn't end up picking the team every week.
I reckon Brown is more likely to play when we need him to depending on which team we are playing.
Totally agree this is the line to be conservative on. High scoring Def tend to get up the ground and many of these face role changes this year. Shaw, Hodge, priced out of the market. I see myself looking at Hibberd, KK, Yeo, Simpson, Maybe even Oxley then rookies. Weitering at 220k appears to be poor value also.
No players over 500k was my mantra last year and it remains this year. As with fwds preference to DPPs with potential mid time as first option picks.
Quote from: crowls on December 11, 2015, 01:37:36 AM
Totally agree this is the line to be conservative on. High scoring Def tend to get up the ground and many of these face role changes this year. Shaw, Hodge, priced out of the market. I see myself looking at Hibberd, KK, Yeo, Simpson, Maybe even Oxley then rookies. Weitering at 220k appears to be poor value also.
No players over 500k was my mantra last year and it remains this year. As with fwds preference to DPPs with potential mid time as first option picks.
Even with the news today on McVeigh I still think sub 500k is a good idea. I feel McVeigh has zero upside, he will maintain his average or drop.
Currently I'm looking at:
Newnes, Bartel, B.Smith, Mackenzie, Harwood, Rookie (Rookie, Rookie)
I believe Newnes has a very strong chance of going 95+ in 2016
With fit backmen at WC this year how does Yeo look ? he scored poorly because he was used to clog holes most weeks, i know his large scores while playing mid were only against poorer teams but still huge upside.
Expect he will still be used as that hole filling utility but a fit WC should see more mid time would you agree?
Really interested in what keen WC supporters know/think of him for 2016, ty.
Quote from: Gigantor on December 11, 2015, 11:06:25 PM
Quote from: crowls on December 11, 2015, 01:37:36 AM
Totally agree this is the line to be conservative on. High scoring Def tend to get up the ground and many of these face role changes this year. Shaw, Hodge, priced out of the market. I see myself looking at Hibberd, KK, Yeo, Simpson, Maybe even Oxley then rookies. Weitering at 220k appears to be poor value also.
No players over 500k was my mantra last year and it remains this year. As with fwds preference to DPPs with potential mid time as first option picks.
Even with the news today on McVeigh I still think sub 500k is a good idea. I feel McVeigh has zero upside, he will maintain his average or drop.
Currently I'm looking at:
Newnes, Bartel, B.Smith, Mackenzie, Harwood, Rookie (Rookie, Rookie)
I believe Newnes has a very strong chance of going 95+ in 2016
Looked at my draft team and only player over 500k is McViegh and thats because I am chasing the DPP. Newnes at 95 is a definite chance and we would all take that right now if we could.
I can't bring myself to go super cheap, just looking at Shaw's numbers from last year, his consistent ad reliable output is too hard to ignore, I will be doing my best to fit him in. After that I will go mid price, looking at Bartel, Hibberd, Smith then not sure after that.
Quote from: Goosey on January 01, 2016, 10:10:45 PM
I can't bring myself to go super cheap, just looking at Shaw's numbers from last year, his consistent ad reliable output is too hard to ignore, I will be doing my best to fit him in. After that I will go mid price, looking at Bartel, Hibberd, Smith then not sure after that.
I somewhat disagree here. yes Shaw is consistent, but I feel he is massively overpriced. He is priced at 113 to start the year, I cannot remember any defender ever being able to backup that sort of average year on year. He should be able to average 100+, but I think that 113 might be too much of a stretch.
To me right now there is only 1 lock for me in defence. That is Simpson. In the last 10 years he has averaged 93, 89, 85, 94, 100, 94, 94, 95, 95, 92. It appears he is about 2-3 points underpriced and should be a top 10 defender at the end of the year.
Quote from: LordSneeze on January 03, 2016, 11:55:08 PM
Quote from: Goosey on January 01, 2016, 10:10:45 PM
I can't bring myself to go super cheap, just looking at Shaw's numbers from last year, his consistent ad reliable output is too hard to ignore, I will be doing my best to fit him in. After that I will go mid price, looking at Bartel, Hibberd, Smith then not sure after that.
I somewhat disagree here. yes Shaw is consistent, but I feel he is massively overpriced. He is priced at 113 to start the year, I cannot remember any defender ever being able to backup that sort of average year on year. He should be able to average 100+, but I think that 113 might be too much of a stretch.
To me right now there is only 1 lock for me in defence. That is Simpson. In the last 10 years he has averaged 93, 89, 85, 94, 100, 94, 94, 95, 95, 92. It appears he is about 2-3 points underpriced and should be a top 10 defender at the end of the year.
BJ! Had to back up a 115 and then went 130 8)
Quote from: Spite on January 04, 2016, 12:06:58 AM
Quote from: LordSneeze on January 03, 2016, 11:55:08 PM
Quote from: Goosey on January 01, 2016, 10:10:45 PM
I can't bring myself to go super cheap, just looking at Shaw's numbers from last year, his consistent ad reliable output is too hard to ignore, I will be doing my best to fit him in. After that I will go mid price, looking at Bartel, Hibberd, Smith then not sure after that.
I somewhat disagree here. yes Shaw is consistent, but I feel he is massively overpriced. He is priced at 113 to start the year, I cannot remember any defender ever being able to backup that sort of average year on year. He should be able to average 100+, but I think that 113 might be too much of a stretch.
To me right now there is only 1 lock for me in defence. That is Simpson. In the last 10 years he has averaged 93, 89, 85, 94, 100, 94, 94, 95, 95, 92. It appears he is about 2-3 points underpriced and should be a top 10 defender at the end of the year.
BJ! Had to back up a 115 and then went 130 8)
Nice, didn't know that one. I still feel he will struggle to back it up especially when you expect improvement from the rest of the GWS team aswell.
Yeah, I remember the BJ one because I refused to start with him at that price. I can't see Shaw replicating something like that. He is likely to go more Malcho then BJ
Quote from: LordSneeze on January 03, 2016, 11:55:08 PM
Quote from: Goosey on January 01, 2016, 10:10:45 PM
I can't bring myself to go super cheap, just looking at Shaw's numbers from last year, his consistent ad reliable output is too hard to ignore, I will be doing my best to fit him in. After that I will go mid price, looking at Bartel, Hibberd, Smith then not sure after that.
I somewhat disagree here. yes Shaw is consistent, but I feel he is massively overpriced. He is priced at 113 to start the year, I cannot remember any defender ever being able to backup that sort of average year on year. He should be able to average 100+, but I think that 113 might be too much of a stretch.
To me right now there is only 1 lock for me in defence. That is Simpson. In the last 10 years he has averaged 93, 89, 85, 94, 100, 94, 94, 95, 95, 92. It appears he is about 2-3 points underpriced and should be a top 10 defender at the end of the year.
I do agree that he is expensive, but I don't consider him overpriced.
Overall, he finished ranked 11th for average score and 6th for total points, that's a fair effort for a defender. I don't see his role changing so I don't see his returns changing. I think he will definitely be top a 6 defender, so I am prepared to start him rather than trying to get him in later. It just means I have to squeeze some coin out of another line!
Was this Shaw's first season without a major brain fart that saw him miss time? I don't back that happening again. I started with him last year based on price vs potential knowing full well he could go full tard at any moment. Priced at 600k and watching people get burnt by Malcho makes me say pass.
Quote from: Mat0369 on January 06, 2016, 08:01:58 PM
Was this Shaw's first season without a major brain fart that saw him miss time? I don't back that happening again. I started with him last year based on price vs potential knowing full well he could go full tard at any moment. Priced at 600k and watching people get burnt by Malcho makes me say pass.
He's in the leadership group... I doubt he's going to be a tard being a leader of young blokes!
Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 27, 2016, 11:45:02 AM
Quote from: Mat0369 on January 06, 2016, 08:01:58 PM
Was this Shaw's first season without a major brain fart that saw him miss time? I don't back that happening again. I started with him last year based on price vs potential knowing full well he could go full tard at any moment. Priced at 600k and watching people get burnt by Malcho makes me say pass.
He's in the leadership group... I doubt he's going to be a tard being a leader of young blokes!
Yeah I'm pretty confident his days of going tard are behind him, and as much as I will regret missing out on his points from the get go I think I will look to get him later as an upgrade once he drops 50-80k
Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 27, 2016, 11:45:02 AM
Quote from: Mat0369 on January 06, 2016, 08:01:58 PM
Was this Shaw's first season without a major brain fart that saw him miss time? I don't back that happening again. I started with him last year based on price vs potential knowing full well he could go full tard at any moment. Priced at 600k and watching people get burnt by Malcho makes me say pass.
He's in the leadership group... I doubt he's going to be a tard being a leader of young blokes!
Well he was in the Pies leadership group in 2010 and got done for drink driving of something :P
But yeh I think he's grown up a hell of a lot
Yes think Shaw will still AVG. 100+ but will drop off in price somewhat get him later and the backs seem to have some juicy priced players this year allowing mids , rucks , forwards to be strengthened ;)
I'm down to 2 premos in defence this year. I feel like I'm borderline taking this strategy too far. Viable with Francis at d3 or nah?
Starting with a midfield of Pendles, Gaz, Rocky, Danger, Gray, Libba, Crouch/JOM (or both) feels kinda nice
Quote from: Spite on February 03, 2016, 10:43:01 PM
I'm down to 2 premos in defence this year. I feel like I'm borderline taking this strategy too far. Viable with Francis at d3 or nah?
Starting with a midfield of Pendles, Gaz, Rocky, Danger, Gray, Libba, Crouch/JOM (or both) feels kinda nice
All depends on the amount of rookies named in defence this year. As long as you aren't missing out on any important mid rookies, could be a good strategy
imo there are about 8 mids who I can confidently say will score well again this year, but I can only say the same about ~ 3 defenders, so I can see why you would go down this path
Quote from: Big Mac on February 03, 2016, 11:20:59 PM
Quote from: Spite on February 03, 2016, 10:43:01 PM
I'm down to 2 premos in defence this year. I feel like I'm borderline taking this strategy too far. Viable with Francis at d3 or nah?
Starting with a midfield of Pendles, Gaz, Rocky, Danger, Gray, Libba, Crouch/JOM (or both) feels kinda nice
All depends on the amount of rookies named in defence this year. As long as you aren't missing out on any important mid rookies, could be a good strategy
imo there are about 8 mids who I can confidently say will score well again this year, but I can only say the same about ~ 3 defenders, so I can see why you would go down this path
Yep thats it. Also I feel like I can confidently select enough back rookies at this stage. Mid rookies, I'm struggling for more than 5 or so
Quote from: Ricochet on January 27, 2016, 11:49:31 AM
Well he was in the Pies leadership group in 2010 and got done for drink driving of something :P
But yeh I think he's grown up a hell of a lot
Fev was also in Carlton's leadership group, Carey was the captain at North, Karmichael Hunt was in the Suns leadership group.....
He has a history and he is priced at top dollar to start the year. If I get him in it will be as an upgrade. It was also the first season since 07 that he played 22 games (only two years where he has actually played a full year which are 07 and last season).
I am going cheap so I will go with only two or three guys over 400k and then maybe a mid price option or two and rookies. Bartel is under priced, he has the 5 from the knee injury which has brought down the average. Smith is also cheap due to the concussions. With the Bombers scenario we have Brown, Dea and Hartley that will all likely get games, there will be other rookies as well which pop up around the NAB and a few mid price options like Harwood, Aish and Mackenzie. I would rather use the cash that I would have to spend on Shaw on another premium on another line.
Quote from: Mat0369 on February 07, 2016, 06:48:53 PM
Quote from: Ricochet on January 27, 2016, 11:49:31 AM
Well he was in the Pies leadership group in 2010 and got done for drink driving of something :P
But yeh I think he's grown up a hell of a lot
Fev was also in Carlton's leadership group, Carey was the captain at North, Karmichael Hunt was in the Suns leadership group.....
He has a history and he is priced at top dollar to start the year. If I get him in it will be as an upgrade. It was also the first season since 07 that he played 22 games (only two years where he has actually played a full year which are 07 and last season).
I am going cheap so I will go with only two or three guys over 400k and then maybe a mid price option or two and rookies. Bartel is under priced, he has the 5 from the knee injury which has brought down the average. Smith is also cheap due to the concussions. With the Bombers scenario we have Brown, Dea and Hartley that will all likely get games, there will be other rookies as well which pop up around the NAB and a few mid price options like Harwood, Aish and Mackenzie. I would rather use the cash that I would have to spend on Shaw on another premium on another line.
Yep exactly mate
Not worried about Smith's draw? I'm staying away for that reason
Quote from: Ricochet on February 07, 2016, 06:53:46 PM
Yep exactly mate
Not worried about Smith's draw? I'm staying away for that reason
Draws are overrated when looking at fantasy. You can't know that all these teams are going to strangle opposition players until the season gets under way and we get a clear vision.
Also sometimes some of the better teams allow a ton of fantasy points to opposition players in certain positions. If the ball is in the Crows back half a lot Smith should see a fair bit of the pill and uses it well. This should still see him score decently.
Quote from: Mat0369 on February 07, 2016, 11:10:49 PM
Quote from: Ricochet on February 07, 2016, 06:53:46 PM
Yep exactly mate
Not worried about Smith's draw? I'm staying away for that reason
Draws are overrated when looking at fantasy. You can't know that all these teams are going to strangle opposition players until the season gets under way and we get a clear vision.
Also sometimes some of the better teams allow a ton of fantasy points to opposition players in certain positions. If the ball is in the Crows back half a lot Smith should see a fair bit of the pill and uses it well. This should still see him score decently.
Yeh normally i would agree, but someone checked his scoring against tougher sides and losses, and it was pretty concerning. Sloane was similar. I'll see if i can find it a bit later
Adelaide were a pretty meh team in 2014 and Smith had his best season to that point.