The Watchlist - 2024 Edition

Started by Mat0369, January 07, 2024, 03:01:59 AM

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Ringo

We  can commiserate together over mistakes last week.  No need to use boost for 3rd trade unless you want to get Rogers/Garcia. Most of your targets for upgrading/downgrading have achievable break evens hence the comment no need unless you may need cash for next week.

Mat0369

BE's for this week

Roberts - 37

Windhager - 42

Bramble - 76

Clohesy - 21

Brown - 65

Graham - -6

Garcia - -20

Clark - 75

Powell - 115

Reid - -30

Comben - 55

Cadman - 52

Darcy - 41

Wilson - 0

I'll also add this one in

Grundy - 76

Rookies to look at this week

Sweet - -113

Rogers - -41

Garcia - -74

Naismith - -66

Woewodin - -15

Cowan - 20

Ralphsmith - -9

Aleer - -43

And I'll add this one in here

McKercher - 8


Mat0369

I watched some of Rogers highlights and he looks like he'll be a pretty damn good player. The only downside was that he played WC, who have been good the last fortnight, but may not be a true rep. I don't mind the idea of possibly bringing McKercher back in now that the crap scores are out of his rotation and he has the ton.

I could do something like Comben, Bramble and Powell out for McKercher, Sweet and Serong. That leaves me with 115k in the bank, Rogers would be around 217k.

Other option is I grab Dale instead of Serong, but that move could just be me being to cute with the trades like I was last week and it bites me in the as. The Dale value does stand out.

Bully

Rogers at -41 puts his real value at around 170k, for him to hit 217k he would need to score 90+, I think against Sydney that might be a stretch, there's still a chance he will be under 200k next week. In any case, there's a few 123k & 117k options for next week, Rogers will need a very strong performance to get the nod.

arbel

Quote from: Mat0369 on May 02, 2024, 01:51:39 AMI could do something like Comben, Bramble and Powell out for McKercher, Sweet and Serong. That leaves me with 115k in the bank, Rogers would be around 217k.

Other option is I grab Dale instead of Serong, but that move could just be me being to cute with the trades like I was last week and it bites me in the as. The Dale value does stand out.

Sweet just has to come in, it's basically free money for the next 4-5 weeks. I'm not sure about McKercher, bringing in a 250k rookie could be risky. He has upside I guess with the ton in his scoring cycle. Rogers plays Brisbane this week at the Gabba so that is a decent litmus test. It's a pity he's on the bubble. Garcia has the more money making potential but he's also at the dogs and could be bevo'd at any point.

I really like getting Dale in. With a BE of -45 he is serious value. Could be a potential D6 and if not should make enough coin for a trade later.

Mat0369

I also realised I can actually afford Dylan Moore as well as Dale for the Bramble/Comben combo with Powell out. Moore has a BE of 13 and Dale a BE of -45 so this is the week to grab them. I just worry I end up with too many of those almost premiums but they're a step below.

Colliwobblers

Moore has been great... except for the 3 under 60, I can't recall why they happened but that's a bit of a worry.

Mat0369

Quote from: Colliwobblers on May 04, 2024, 09:50:38 AMMoore has been great... except for the 3 under 60, I can't recall why they happened but that's a bit of a worry.

Late start to preseason and was in doubt round 1. He has some match fitness now and his scoring has jumped up

Green now out with the ankle. He will probably have to go next week because it looks like a 5 to 6 week ankle possibly. I think I get the two upgrades this week and look at Serong for Green next week

Mat0369

Green to Oliver is my lock of the week

Colliwobblers

Quote from: Mat0369 on May 04, 2024, 09:58:17 PMGreen to Oliver is my lock of the week

knew this was coming, +1 for me.

Bully

Quote from: Mat0369 on May 04, 2024, 09:58:17 PMGreen to Oliver is my lock of the week

Oliver will be cheap but I think I still prefer Petracca, will assess things at the end of the round.

Mat0369

#116
Some fun stats on Oliver tonight.

His BE was 120
He had 31 disposals
He had 17 contested possessions
12 touches and 8 contested in the last quarter
18 CBA's for the game tied with Gawn for most on the ground
4 clangers and 3 were in the 1st quarter (all frees against)

Adding he had 77% TOG, only had 4 clearances and 3 of those were CC's. He went at 81% DE and was getting the ball in transition with the 7 marks. TOG is still a little bit lower than last year and par for this season, but he is running pretty well

This was his first 30 possession game since round 1 and he looked fit and confident out there. Passes the eye test, at his price he has to come in because he is your M9 as a worst case scenario.

Bully

Oliver will be a tick under 480k, Green will be around 535k, that's 55k which can be added to Roberts which brings the funds to 470k. Might be able to bring in another fallen mid, Parish an option or even Petracca if there's money in the bank.

I can definitely see the appeal with Oliver, it's a lowball risk with plenty of upside. With the byes coming up having an M9 could be decisive and this year with 40 trades not an indulgence. I think the main selling point with Oliver is he's performed against a top team, not so sure I'd be keen if it was North or West Coast but Geelong are the benchmark this year.

Colliwobblers

I banked $447k this week which sounds nice but with no boosts left I now have to green - Oliver.

Was going to be horne frances to oliver but he'll survive another week now.

Leaves another upgrade anywhere probably Comben to Martin, or If meek crashes - Marshall.

Problems going to be I'll miss all this batch of rookies, doing straight upgrades next two weeks in a row. Seems a nice problem to have but could be detrimental.

But fingers crossed Sullivan keeps playing, and that's one I can grab later, if you ask me he's exactly what the Pies need.

How good Wilson :)

Hope the Suns pump the lions and the 64 Suns players I have all get 150's... (SORRY RINGO).

Bully

Can always hold Green for a week if the rookie situation warrants it, I haven't ruled that out, will just wait on the medical report from GWS.