LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 19

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett



I am never not captaining Rocky at Etihad. That is all. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Dangerfield
Last 3: 118, 130, 139 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 143, 110, 110 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 118, 139, 108 (122 avg)

The fact that a 118 last week was disappointing says it all. Danger is on fire! So it really helps that he dominates the Bulldogs and is at home. Better yet? The Doggies are struggling for fit players right now which might make it a bit easier for him. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Last 3: 106, 128, 95 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 81, 84, 100 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 106, 95, 111 (104 avg)

Doesn't do well against the Dogs for some reason. Will probably be a bit better this week, considering form and where it is, but I wouldn't back him in. Prediction - 105

Hunter
Last 3: 101, 110, 90 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 91, 34, 78 (68 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 34, 78 (56 avg)

I know he's having a good year but those numbers are more than enough to scare me away. Prediction - 90

Bontempelli
Last 3: 113, 107, 115 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 104, 98, 116 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 98, 116 (107 avg)

Right now, the correct answer to "who should have replaced GAJ?" is Bont. Unfortunately, a lot of us didn't have the benefit of hindsight then. Numbers say he'll be good again this week. Prediction - 115

D. Martin
Last 3: 103, 161, 103 (122 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 132, 74, 111 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: N/A

Dusty's never played at Manuka but I'm not sure how much it matters where he plays at the moment. Form is really good and he's been great against the Giants. My only concern is how much losing Lids, and hence Richmond's inevitable struggles, will hurt him. Prediction - 115

Cotchin
Last 3: 91, 116, 95 (101 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 145, 113, 102 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: N/A

Cotch just adores playing the Giants. Again, my fear is the lack of Deledioo but, with the Giants not tagging much this season, Cotch could be in for a big one. Prediction - 115

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 123, 125, 84 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 115, 124, 97 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 121, 74, 130 (108 avg)

Very much BOG last week in his 300th, Sammy Mitchell will probably smash it again this week. Loves Tassie, loves playing the Blues, and has two good scores in a row. Prediction - 120

Lewis
Last 3: 113, 106, 100 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 110, 111, 76 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 113, 107, 111 (110 avg)

Lewis just hasn't stopped pumping out tons. Expect another one here against an opponent he enjoys at a ground he loves. Prediction - 110

Gibbs
Last 3: 131, 100, 104 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 112, 123, 109 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: N/A

I'm still a little bitter about trading this guy out earlier in the year. This week, he should be great again. My only concern is how dominant Hawthorn are at the moment. Prediction - 120

Adams
Last 3: 103, 123, 104 (110 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 99 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 74, 87, 108 (90 avg)

Now that he's fit again, Adams seems to be pumping out consistent tons. I can't see much reason he won't get another. Prediction - 105

Priddis
Last 3: 138, 91, 105 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 84, 82, 146 (104 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 91, 67, 95 (84 avg)

Don't go chasing last week's score! Priddis isn't great against the Pies and he's certainly a lot poorer at the MCG than at home. Prediction - 95

Rockliff
Last 3: 179, 128, 101 (136 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 33, 90, 133 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 128, 135, 142 (135 avg)

An injury caused the 33 and he was tagged for the 90 (that definitely won't happen this week - Port aren't tagging and Rich is the first tag choice anyway). The 133 is probably a better representative of what we'll get at the Gabba. Prediction - 135

Zorko
Last 3: 102, 131, 90 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 110, 79, 80 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 131, 147, 100 (126 avg)

Also delicious at the Gabba so will ton again. Prediction - 115

S. Martin
Last 3: 130, 111, 100 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 129, 97, 58 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 111, 111, 61 (94 avg)

His current form is excellent and Port still don't have a healthy ruck department. Could be another big one at home for Stef. Prediction - 120

Gray
Last 3: 99, 122, 115 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 115, 120, 61 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 115, 102, 36 (84 avg)

I was a little disappointed by Gray missing the ton last week but he'll be right back there this time. Brisbane are leaking scores and Gray's good against them anyway. Prediction - 115

Goldstein
Last 3: 69, 81, 106 (85 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 113, 92, 130 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 69, 81, 81 (77 avg)

He's good against the Saints but Goldy's current form is shocking. Add that Hickey is playing really well right now and you've gotta steer very clear. Prediction - 90

Steven
Last 3: 145, 97, 158 (133 avg)
Last 3 against North: 58, 70, 85 (71 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 145, 97, 158 (133 avg)

Toughest call of the week for mine. Usually, I err on the side of caution when Steven plays against a team he lacks history against. However, something about this week makes me want to ignore that and look more at the 145 and 158. Hickey is getting his guys first use and Goldstein looks out of sorts, making Steven a good chance to rack it up. Too risky but I think he'll be good. Prediction - 125

Riewoldt
Last 3: 107, 99, 95 (100 avg)
Last 3 against North: 144, 103, 89 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 107, 99, 95 (100 avg)

Meanwhile, Roo's form against the Roos is delightful. Can't see any reason he doesn't ton up comfortably. Prediction - 115

Gawn
Last 3: 120, 102, 110 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 138, 52 (95 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 146, 85 (110 avg)

Big Max has had some huge games this year and some shockers in there for good value. He's a slight risk only because you'd be picking a ruck when you've got much safer picks in Danger and Rocky. His form is incredible though and he smashed the Suns back in Round 7. Prediction - 130

Neale
Last 3: 124, 72, 130 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 95, 36, 104 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 72, 128, 126 (109 avg)

I've said it a few times but it's only tags that are slowing Neale this season. Sydney won't tag so Neale will be good. Simple! Prediction - 120

Parker
Last 3: 116, 111, 98 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 82, 119, 92 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 87, 82, 125 (98 avg)

Pretty decent form but nowhere near enough going for him to pick him. Could be worth a gamble though as he's had some massive games this year! If you're desperate for a POD, consider it. Prediction - 110

Hannebery
Last 3: 90, 78, 103 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 107, 102, 111 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 86, 102, 131 (106 avg)

I hate his recent form but his numbers against Freo say he'll finally bounce back this week. Woo! Prediction - 105

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 61, 109, 95 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 104 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 41, 74 (58 avg)

Mitchell was shocking last week and sucks over in Perth. Way too risky this week but the 104 against the Dockers last time is a good sign. Prediction - 95

Sloane
Last 3: 76, 106, 123 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 136, 89, 88 (104 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 106, 139, 140 (128 avg)

Tom Rockliff scored 179 against them last week. Dustin Martin scored 161 against them the week before. Jack Steven scored 158 against them the week before that. Getting the drift? The Bombers are burnt out and good midfielders are very much taking advantage. Form could be a concern but it's in Adelaide, where Sloane has already scored 139, 140, 155, and 135 this year. I made a mistake by not making Rocky #1 last week or Dusty the week before... or Steven the week before that. I'm not stuffing up again. Prediction - 140

Merrett
Last 3: 130, 152, 126 (136 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 31 (31 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 128, 98 (113 avg)

That history means nothing. All you need to know is that Merrett's the best fantasy player in the comp right now and that's enough for you to strongly consider him. Prediction - 130

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Boom! 130 for big Stef! Nailed it. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 109, 131, 115 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 141, 93, 93 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 95, 96, 94 (95 avg)

I know it might be a bit of a cheat having a regular mention in my Roughies but JPK hasn't made my top 5 this season. Why is he such a good choice this week then? Firstly, unlike a lot of my Roughies, he's low risk with four straight tons since the bye. Next up is last year's 141 against them - tempting! But, the biggest thing is that a hollow shell of the Gold Coast Suns scored 6 tons against this Fremantle outfit last week, and JPK is head and shoulders above anyone in a Suns uniform from last week. Gutsy prediction - 140

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Having Zaka in my team and being right about his spudiness was really upsetting. The good thing is, I nailed another one! Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Ward
Last 3: 87, 118, 61 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 82, 96, 63 (80 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: 88, 74, 76 (79 avg)

Hasn't been horrendous in the past few weeks but definitely down on form. Add in the Richmond history and recent form in Canberra and we have a stinker! Spudiction - 75

The verdict:
1.   Sloane (140)

2.   Dangerfield (135)
3.   Rockliff (135)
4.   Merrett (130)
5.   Gawn (130)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[jvalles69]

Nice right up as always.  Was going to request JPK as I'm bringing him in this week over Sloane and Danger, but I see your final point. ;)

[Bill Manspeaker]

great work Huggy! love having top 5 in my team ;D Sloaney let me down last week and I've never made him captain but it might be time for a risky. probably wimp out at the last second and go with Danger :P

[timmyparso]

Just a word of caution before Captaining Rocky. Port recently started tagging with Kane Mitchell and Brad Ebert with varying success. Mitchell has shut down Cotchin, S Mitchell and Wells in recent week in a harder tagging role and Ebert did a good run with role on Dusty.

I didn't notice Port tagging GWS.

You'd expect if they tag they'd use Mitchell on Rich but perhaps Ebert could run with Rocky.

Nice work again LH

[Thunderbolts]

Great write up Huggy!! Danger for me

[LaHug]

Just a word of caution before Captaining Rocky. Port recently started tagging with Kane Mitchell and Brad Ebert with varying success. Mitchell has shut down Cotchin, S Mitchell and Wells in recent week in a harder tagging role and Ebert did a good run with role on Dusty.

I didn't notice Port tagging GWS.

You'd expect if they tag they'd use Mitchell on Rich but perhaps Ebert could run with Rocky.

Nice work again LH

Didn't think about the double tag... I'd recommend Sloane and Danger over him anyway this week but good point!

[Gigantor]

Hasn't JPK been guilty of coasting in games when Sydney are dominating?

[Bill Manspeaker]

I'm doin it! goin with Sloaney

[Mr.Craig]

Alright Huggy, I'm putting my faith in you. Last minute change to Sloane.

Coming with my pitchfork if it goes wrong. :P

[LaHug]

I've got Sloane in AF so I'll sink with y'all if it fails. Danger in DT because I don't have Sloane in my team.

[WhatMate]

Also on Sloane  8)

[Bill Manspeaker]

...maybe I shoulda played it safe with Danger

[LaHug]

Nah, Danger will stop at 140. Sloane for 200!

[Bill Manspeaker]

Nah, Danger will stop at 140. Sloane for 200!

good call mate! hopefully Sloaney listens to ya as well

[jvalles69]

Rockliff all the way fellas, no Kane Mitchell this week.  ;)