WXV Round 15: Beijing v Pacific in the Battle of the Bolters

[Purple 77]

As of the eve of Round 15, there are 5 groups of teams in accordance to their chance at finals:
- The impossibles (New Delhi, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Rio de Janeiro)
- The unlikely (Seoul, Beijing, London)
- The outside-chances (Tokyo, Cape Town, Toronto)
- The likely (New York, Pacific, Berlin)
- The guaranteed (Moscow, Christchurch, Mexico City, PNL, Dublin)

Round 15, AFL Round 17

Home Team		Away Team	Head-to-Head	Venue
Beijing Thunder	v	Pacific Islanders	0  v  3	Beijing Olympic Park
Cairo Sands	v	Christchurch Saints	0  v  0	Borg El Arab Stadium   AAP Alliance, Africonia
Cape Town Cobras	v	Mexico City Suns	1  v  5	Newlands Cricket Ground   AAP Alliance
London Royals	v	Berlin Brewers	2  v  1	Neutral, Bellerive   EurAsia, Europe
Moscow Spetsnaz	v	Dublin Destroyers	1  v  2	Luzhniki Stadium   EurAsia, Europe
New York Revolution	v	New Delhi Tigers	1  v  2	Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor
PNL Reindeers	v	Buenos Aires Armadillos	1  v  2	State de France
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	v	Toronto Wolves	0  v  0	Maracana Stadium   AAP Alliance, Americas
Tokyo Samurai	v	Seoul Magpies	0  v  3	Tokyo Olympic Stadium   Asian Cup, EurAsia, Asia

This is a genuinely tense round, but no match featuring two-sides in the same group (bar the guaranteed). But...

The two feel-good stories of the year in Beijing and Pacific go head-to-head, in my MATCH OF THE ROUND! Pacific are coming off a potentially season-defining win against New York, which when you consider they're remaining opponents (Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo) are all beneath them on the ladder and they now find themselves in 7th spot... it's now just a matter of holding your nerve. There are 9 mathematically possible teams fighting for 3 spots in the 8, so they're well and truly in the hot seat at the moment. Beijing's back half of the season has been a disaster, having lost 6 of their past 7 games with the last two losses against Seoul and Tokyo hurting the most. They've looked to have run out of puff this young side in Beijing, but there is still hope! They simply must win all 3 of they're remaining games (and cross they're fingers on a couple of other results) and then they still might make it! Consider each game as an elimination final, as a loss means the end for Beijing. Despite the string of 4 losses, Beijing have been crazy consistent in the past 5 games, scoring between 135-139 on each occasion. Nothing wrong with that, if anything all that means is another year of natural improvement and a successful trading period can boost that up into a finals force. Beijing however have never beaten Pacific, but they're at home now... heck, I'm gonna tip Beijing!

Cairo scared Berlin last week before falling away in the last quarter and a half. This was coming off a great win against Toronto the week before, so Christchurch shouldn't go in underestimating this depleted Sands outfit like the last two opposing coaches as you might just get bitten. Christchurch got obliterated by a rampaging Jaguars outfit last week, and there wouldn't be any major concern in that had they scored at their 140+ selves. Instead, the Saints posted their 4th score below 135 for the year and seeing as they've done it again at the pointy end of the year, this is a worry. A score like that simply won't win finals, and as the ladder stands they'll face Dublin first up so they need to finish the year strongly. The Saints already have a superior percentage above the team immediately after them in the Spetsnaz, but not the Brewers so a percentage boost here would be handy. But, a score like last week would open the door for the Sands, who would love to get another win for the year. Will tip the Saints, as apparently I haven't done that much this year.

Cape Town last week joined Beijing and New Delhi as teams that had to face a 180+ score from Dublin... I heard New Delhi recommended the psychiatrist to help the players get over the trauma. But, the Cobras face possibly the worst team to face after a loss like that; the Mexico City Suns, for many reasons: 1) The Suns themselves are coming off a 170+ score themselves 2) In the 6 occasions, that's right, 6 times these two teams have played against each other, the Cobras have won just once 3) A loss here, given the Cobras new found bad percentage, would all but rule them out of finals contention (given Moscow and PNL are still on the horizon). You just gotta win Cape Town! This is where unfortunately the horror start to the Cobras year comes back to bite them. The Suns overtook the Brewers on the points table last week (dog) and the Saints on the real ladder to move up to 3rd place on both rankings. Did we ever doubt that this team would find form at the right end of the year? I know I didn't. This is probably the last time the Suns will face a team outside of the top 6 for the rest of the year, given they have PNL and Dublin on the horizon and will probably play them again in finals. Are the Suns confident enough to rest a star player? I reckon they'll get it done even if they do, but they'd be wary of a desperate Cobras outfit.

Quite possibly one of the teams I least look forward to every year, London are the team that you just can't read. One week you pencil them in for a win, the other you accept an inevitable loss. The thing is, London are the competitions giant killers; not saying the Brewers are a giant, but they are a high scoring team which bizarrely is what London likes in their opponents. The Royals probably won't make finals, but there is still hope! They must win every match from now on or their season stops after the 17th game. True to form, the Royals were inspired 2 weeks ago when they took down Rio de Janeiro in a thriller, only to then back it up with a 128 score and loss to the Wolves. The Brewers had a few nervous moments last week but got the win in the end against the Sands with their 4th lowest score of the year in 138. In the last 4 weeks, the Brewers have scored in each of the 120, 130, 140 and 150 region so that remains a problem for them. Will the pattern mean a 110 score is on the way as Fyfe continues his form slump? Or does it mean 160 where Fyfe comes rampaging back? At the neutral ground in my beloved home state Tassy, I'll back myself in as the higher team on the ladder, but gosh darn am I nervous. A loss here for me will get me stressed out in the proceeding two weeks.

*whistles*, if this game really meant anything in the scheme of what the ladder might look like for both teams, it would easily be my match of the round. The Spetsnaz, the super consistent 145-155 team from Moscow take on, well, the super team in Dublin. The Destroyers, with special thanks to captain Goldstein, posted their 3rd 180+ score for the year... holy crap. And then, when you consider newly fantasy hated (but great player) Joel Selwood and Rory Sloane weren't in that team then well... why not finish the season now? Because it's a funny game, Worlds, and you never know what might happen on any given day. Moscow are at the end of their testing 3-week period against Mexico City, PNL and now Dublin which was going to give us an indicator of how they might pull up come finals time. If that was a true indicator then so far Moscow aren't a threat to the big 3. Prove me wrong Moscow, by beating the Destroyers this week and stamping yourself as a premiership contender! You know what? The Spetsnaz are at home, they haven't scored 150+ in a couple weeks... I'm gonna back them in!

The Revolution are one loss away from going into Panic Stations. Almost all of a sudden, as to me they've looked like a top 8 team all year, they find themselves at 8th spot with a much inferior percentage to the 9th placed (but game behind) Wolves and with 6 teams below them desperately trying to knock them out of the 8. Last week's loss against Pacific was uncharacteristically unimpressive posting an awful 121 and igniting doubts as to whether they'll play an 18th match for the year. And yet... I still reckon they'll make it. Fortunately for them, they face teams below them on the ladder in New Delhi, Beijing and Seoul, but they wouldn't be looking forward to any of them if they continue to score like this. New Delhi, you know, I just feel like you have got another win in you. The last two weeks have been disappointing with scores of 116 and 101, but the 3-week stretch before that read 132, 125 and 142... all scores that would have beaten New York last week. You just gotta BELIEVE! This could be the last home game of the year for New York as they are no guarantee to finish in the top 6, but they'll rest easier knowing they have the home crowd on this one. New York for mine.

Reckon this match is all about PNL trying to secure 2nd spot on the ladder, and for Buenos Aires not to get smacked too much and keep their percentage above New Delhi in case they get another win. The Reindeers took out a major scalp in the Spetsnaz last week which they'd be very satisfied with. But, you can never satisfy a Reindeer's thirst for blood. Currently, the Reindeers are second on the ladder, a game ahead of 3rd placed Mexico City but the Suns have a much better percentage that the Reindeers won't come close to overtaking in 3 games. Seeing as they play the Suns in two weeks time, you'd think this would be a wonderful opportunity to rest someone like Priddis or Hodge in preparation for that match, which is likely to decide what venue these two teams play at Week 1 of finals. The Dillos, as I said, should just focus on trying not to get beaten by too much, and should always be looking to try and best their previous highest score for the year of 133. Never say never I suppose! But yeah, the Reindeers will never lose this match.

GAJ IS BACK IN BUSINESS, and Rio send a message of a year that could have been with an incredible 179 last week on the back of an inspired game from captain GAJ. I rated the Jaguars day one of this year, and I continue to be surprised at how they've managed just the 5 wins to be 15th on the ladder... with a percentage over 100. I genuinely don't look forward to playing them in 2 weeks time, and I don't think the Wolves do now either. The Wolves sit at the dreaded 9th spot on the ladder, but would be more hopeful than most that share their 7-7 record in that they have a higher percentage than all of them, and the 8th placed New York. The Wolves really do face an interesting 3-week run home, with matches against Rio, Christchurch and Berlin; all teams that have scored 150+ at least 3 times, and 130 or lower at least twice. They may need to win all of them too, but might get lucky by winning two, so a win here is very much necessary. The Wolves would also be comforted that they scored 150+ last week too without a crazy display from their captain. A really tough match, but I'm gonna tip the Jaguars, as apparently I tip Toronto too often.

The Samurai are a very interesting proposition! They are a genuine chance to make finals, sitting 7-7 and 11th on the ladder with matches against Seoul, Pacific and New Delhi to come... all are winnable, and if they do win them all they will probably make finals. But lose one, and you probably won't considering an inferior percentage. They've kinda snuck under the radar, this Samurai outfit. I guess it's because they've scored 125 or lower, FIVE times, and yet find themselves in a position to get into finals. Seoul have an oh so tiny chance at making finals, but they need to win all 3 games and by a lot. They are actually coming off back-to-back wins with scores of 149 and 133, so you could say they've left their best form to the end. But Seoul is a team that has been crazy consistent in getting 9 scores in the 120s this year, and I don't think you can all of a sudden stop those days from repeating themselves in the last third of the season. Still, a score in the 120s might be enough to beat the Samurai as already discussed, so Seoul could actually find themselves getting three wins in a row here. But, seeing as Tokyo have got more to lose, I'm going to back them to get it done. I actually kinda want them to make finals, just for the story.

[Holz]

wow I think this is the first time you have tipped against me Purp. You have only been wrong once this season, you sure you want another wrong tip?

[Holz]

Dublin Goldy's



Birchall Rance Tmac Murphy
Selwood Boak Mundy (VC) Thompson
Goldy (C)
Buddy Martin Roughy Gunston
NDS Sloane

Walters, Bruce, Holman

geez thats a good looking team, the bench looks terrible but dont mind that starting 15.

[Purple 77]

wow I think this is the first time you have tipped against me Purp. You have only been wrong once this season, you sure you want another wrong tip?

Moscow gotta do something  :P

[RaisyDaisy]

Cloke, Tippet and Bennell

I reckon we might need to flood this week!  :'(

[Holz]

wow I think this is the first time you have tipped against me Purp. You have only been wrong once this season, you sure you want another wrong tip?

Moscow gotta do something  :P

Sloane looks like he will be back.

you still confident :P

[Toga]

Will be a good game between us and Pacific this week! Really impressed by how both sides have improved this season, and if we can't make it will be really rooting for Pacific in the finals. If we can get our forwards right this week we might be able to break the 140 barrier that has eluded us so much this season :P

[meow meow]

CHRISTCHURCH SAINTS

B: Liam Picken, Dylan Roberton, Sean Dempster (R), Sam Gilbert
M: Sam Mitchell (VC), Tom Scully, Hamish Hartlett, Matthew Boyd (C)
R: Wilbur
F: Jack Steele, Dayne Zorko, Jake Stringer, Tory Dickson
I: Aaron Vandenberg, Luke Shuey

E: Shaun McKernan, Jeff Garlett, Harris Andrews

Resting: Aaron Sandilands

[ossie85]

Another great write up

[Nige]

meow's even playing former Cairene in Tory Dickson against his old side, oh man.  :(

[Jukes]

We're gonna lose by 100 points probably

D: Dunn, Vlastuin, Docherty, Hombsch
M: Ward, Heppell, Armitage, Greenwood
R: Naitanui (cc)
F: Gray (cc), Daniher, Hogan, Monfries
U: Clancee Pearce, Bastinac

Emg: Seedsman, May, Jenkins

Resting Dom Sheed

[meow meow]

meow's even playing former Cairene in Tory Dickson against his old side, oh man.  :(

Play Downie and it'll be a win-win. He showed a bit last week and would have scored much better than his 68 if he didn't give away a whopping 6 free kicks.

I really should make Mitchell captain though!

[Nige]

meow's even playing former Cairene in Tory Dickson against his old side, oh man.  :(

Play Downie and it'll be a win-win. He showed a bit last week and would have scored much better than his 68 if he didn't give away a whopping 6 free kicks.

I really should make Mitchell captain though!

I think we'll have to play Downie because I reckon we'll just about have 18.

[roo boys!]

Toronto Wolves
D: J.Kelly, R.Shaw, A.Toovey, A.Litherland
M: S.Pendlebury (C), R.Griffen (VC), A.Swallow, B.Cunnington
R: P.Ryder
F: J.Ziebell, J.Crisp, M.Pavlich, M.Robinson
I: I.Smith, R.Douglas

E: L.Henderson, K.Turner, D.Merrett

What's happened to all my defenders  :(

[Levi434]

Rio de Janeiro Jaguars

D: Bachar Houli, Elliott Yeo, Andrew Mackie, Ben Jacobs
M: Marc Murphy, Gary Ablett (c), Stephen Hill, Bernie Vince (vc)
R: Sam Jacobs
F: Jack Riewoldt, Adam Schneider, Taylor Walker, Lewis Taylor
I: Patrick Cripps, David Zaharakis

E: Brayden Maynard (d/m), David Hale (r/f), Matthew Wright (f/m)